On Thursday, Jobless Claims shot up unexpectedly to almost 1 million, but markets did not care.  All three major indices opened flat, but then sold off a bit most of the day.  As a result, the SPY and DIA both printed Bearish Engulfing candles, while the QQQ put in a black candle.  On the day, DIA lost 0.19%, SPY lost 0.35%, and QQQ lost 0.53%.  Interestingly, the IWM was up 2% and closed at an all-time high close.  VXX gained just over a percent to 16.68 and T2122 fell slightly, but remains in the overbought territory at 89.97.  10-year bond yields spiked on expectations of the Biden stimulus plan closing a 1.129% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.5% to $52.72/barrel.

After hours, President-elect Biden released his $1.9 trillion stimulus plan.  The plan includes another $1,400 direct payment (raising the December $600 to $2,000).  It also calls for extending $400/week federal unemployment benefits through September, as well as raising the federal minimum wage to $15/hour.  Other key points include $350 billion for state and local government aid, $170 billion aid for schools, $50 billion for Covid testing and $20 billion for vaccinations.  One expected item that was missing was a $10,000 student loan forgiveness plan.

As he leaves office, President Trump continues to escalate tensions with China.  This time by adding more Chinese companies to the federal blacklist (prohibited from doing business in the US and from US investment) including the largest Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi and massive oil company CNOOC.  Some tariffs have been in place as of January 1^st, impacting things such as the price of computer graphics cards.  Oxford University estimates the impact of the trade war will be about $1.6 trillion over the next 5 years, but did not break down the split between the world’s two largest economies. Reuters did report that it may result in up to 732,000 fewer US jobs being created by 2022.

Related to the virus itself, US infections remain very high, but may show signs of easing just a bit.  The totals have risen to 23,848,410 confirmed cases and 397,994 deaths.  This comes as we average just over 243,000 new cases and just over 3,400 deaths per day.  (Extremely high, but less than just a few days ago.) In addition, in an effort to ramp up vaccinations, baseball stadiums and convention centers are being transformed into large-scale vaccination centers across the country.  President-elect Biden has called for a doubling of the pace (we currently give about 500,000 shots per day and he wants 100 million in 100 days).

Globally, the numbers rose to 93,637,684 confirmed cases and the world has now broken the 2 million death mark as confirmed deaths are now at 2,004,815 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging 715,000 new cases and over 13,500 new deaths per day.  Ireland reports that half of its total cases have come in the last 2 weeks.  While the number is a drop in the bucket relative to the US, that trend should be alarming.  France imposed new travel restrictions.  German PM Merkel proposed another total national lockdown (they are already in a partial one), but is being fought by German states and business groups.  In Asia, perhaps just coincidentally, China reported its first COVID-19 death in 5 months and a renewed outbreak in the Northwest of the country, on the same day WHO experts arrived in Wuhan to investigate the virus source.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Shenzhen (+0.27%) and Shanghai (+0.27%) again paced gainers.  Meanwhile, South Korea (-2.03%), India (-1.10%) and Thailand (-1.11%) led the losses.  In Europe, so far today markets are red across the board.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE -0.90%), DAX (-1.05%), and CAC (-1.14%) are all leading the way lower, but losses are over three-fourths of a percent across the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are down slightly as well.  The DIA is implying a -0.41% open, while the SPY implies a -0.32% open, and the QQQ is flat, implying a -0.06% open.

The major economic news for Friday includes Dec. Retail Sales, Dec. PPI, and NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Dec. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Nov. Business Inventories and Mich. Consumer Sentiment (both at 10 am).  Major earnings reports on the day include C, JPM, PNC, and WFC before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

As we head into a long weekend and with the FBI reporting warnings of more pro-Trump attacks possible in all 50 state capitols as well as 3 serious threats to the US Capitol, do not be surprised to see hedging or profit-taking action Friday. 3 days is a long time to hold much risk in this kind of environment. Besides, it’s Friday…and Friday is payday. So, don’t forget to take some money off and pay yourself.

Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline.  As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a long-term game. We don’t have to try to get rich every day.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GILD, MPC, FUBO, INSP, XBI, OSTK, PSX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat and then printed indecisive (Doji or Spinning Top type candles).  The QQQ even formed a sort of “Morning Star type” signal, although the wicks are too large to meet the technical definition.  On the day, the SPY (+0.25%) was up, the DIA (-0.04%) on the red side of flat, and the QQQ (+0.68%) closed higher.  The VXX was down to 16.49 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) rose higher into overbought territory at 90.91.  10-year bond yields fell for the first time this year to 1.095% and Oil (WTI) pulled back half a percent to $52.91/barrel.

After the close, Congress impeached the President for a second time with 10 GOP members voting with all Democrats to call for an impeachment trial.  This vote came as  7,000 National Guard troops (of 20,000 expected) and another 1,500 Federal Law Enforcement personnel had already occupied the Capitol because the FBI reported 3 credible threats of terrorism (dated 1-16 through 1-20) targeting those buildings and officials, presumably around the Inauguration event.

The US Budget Deficit grew 61% in December to $144 billion.  Oddly, that number was much better than the $200 billion deficit for the month that was expected. In other good news, Crude Oil Inventories came in a million barrels lower than expected, declining 3.25 million barrels.  In not-so-good news, Fed member Brainard reported that workers in the bottom quartile of salary still has an unemployment rate above 20%.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 23,616,345 confirmed cases and 393,928 deaths.  This comes as we average just over 253,000 new cases and just over 3,400 deaths per day.  JNJ reported after the close that their one-shot vaccine is showing promising results from a tiny set (57) or early-stage study participants.  However, the company also acknowledged a mfg. delay that has put them behind schedule on production of the vaccine (pre-producing in hope it will be approved later).  Meanwhile, Ohio researchers have identified two new US-originating mutations of COVID-19, one of which (dubbed the “Columbus Strain”) is similar to and as contagious as the UK variant.

Globally, the numbers rose to 92,891,624 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,989,396 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging 733,000 new cases and over 13,400 new deaths per day.  A study out of the UK has found that if you catch COVID-19 and recover, your body has approximately 5 months of immunity, but not lifetime resistance.  In other bad news, one of the Chinese vaccines from Sinovac Biotech was found to be only 50% effective in Brazilian trials (versus the 78% effectiveness the company had claimed from Chinese trials).  In Japan, PM Suga declared a state of emergency for 7 additional regions of the country. And in the UK, Health Sec. Hancock is now considering putting COVID-19 patients into hotels to ease capacity pressure on the NHS.  However, while it would surely help make space, that measure would not help any personnel, material or equipment capacity issues.  And in Germany, the government tightened inbound travel restrictions again today, specifically trying to stop the UK and South African mutations of the virus. This after reporting that German 2020 GDP had contracted by 5%.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again.  Shenzhen (-1.39%) and Shanghai (-0.91%) again paced the losers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+0.93%) and Japan (+0.85%) led gainers.  European markets are leaning to the green side so far today.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (+0.73%), DAX (+0.20%), and CAC (+0.10%) are all positive at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are flat.  The biggest mover is the DIA, which is implying a +0.27% open, while the SPY implies a +0.14% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Dec. Import/Exports and Weekly Initial jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and 3 Fed Speakers (Bostic at 11 am, Chair Powell at 12:30 pm, and Kaplan at 1 pm).  The other event that could be caused major economic news is President-elect Biden will unveil his stimulus proposals after the close.  (Sources have told reporters it will be in the $2 trillion price range.)  Major earnings reports on the day include BLK, DAL, FRC, and TSM before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

With all political drama done, for now, waiting for more economic news or on the outcome of additional threatened acts of insurrection may give the market pause. Also remember that Monday is a market holiday. So, there could be some hedging or profit-taking the next couple days in front ofth e long weekend. Again, we can look at the bright side of this sideways action helping work off over-extension.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GBT, QCOM, CB, SPWR, MVIS, LLY, BKD, HUYA, NET. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat Tuesday and then proceeded to print indecisive Doji-type candles in all 3 major averages.  So, after a rollercoaster session, the consolidation of the last couple days remains in force.  On the day SPY (+0.01%) was on the green side of flat, DIA (-0.16%) was on the red side, and QQQ (+0.18%) was on the green side.  The VXX lost 3.4% to 16.75 and T2122 jumped back up into the overbought territory at 87.08.  10-year bond yield were flat at 1.134% and Oil rose the better part of 2% to $53.15/barrel.

During the day, two different Fed speakers said that into 2022 the FOMC will remain accommodative, but that inflation could rise faster than expected.  In other economic news, President-elect Biden announced more economic relief will be coming, saying he will extend the Student Loan repayment moratorium in addition to earlier calling on Congress to forgive $10,000 in student loans.  The dollar also continued to weaken, which helped most commodities and even bonds to an extent.  However, this weakening also raises concerns that the EU, China, and perhaps others will soon make moves to devalue their own currencies relative to the dollar to offset the impact of falling dollars (it is harder to sell things to the US when a dollar buys less).

Overnight, in Europe, ECB President Lagarde told reporters she is standing by her forecast of 3.9% GDP growth for 2021 (versus what is believed to be a 7.3% contraction last year).  Despite the current lockdowns and travel restrictions, she said the model expected the current situation.  She said that what might change forecasts would be lockdowns that extended past March. Until then, she still expects close to 4% growth.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 23,369,732 confirmed cases and 389,621 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is now starting to hit, as we average just over 253,000 new cases and after another record day of 4,300 dead, we now average almost 3,400 deaths per day.  The CDC has announced that all international air travelers will require a negative test before boarding a flight destined for the US as of Jan. 26.  In addition, the agency also reported that we have vaccinated 9 million people with the first round (of two) of the PFE-BTNX or MRNA vaccines.  REGN also announced a deal with the government to provide 1.25 million additional doses of its Covid antibody treatment.  Interestingly, at almost the same time Dr. Fauci (NIH) and other scientists were saying that the new South African variant may pose a threat to the effectiveness to the existing antibody treatments and could theoretically also impact the effectiveness of vaccines.

Globally, the numbers rose to 92,118,795 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,972,685 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging over 733,000 new cases and over 13,000 new deaths per day.  Germany tightened inbound travel restrictions and extended its lockdown again today, specifically trying to stop the UK and South African mutations of the virus.  In bad news, a Chinese vaccine from Sinovac Biotech was found to be only 50% effective in Brazil trials (versus the 78% the company had claimed from Chinese trials).  In Japan, PM Suga declared a state of emergency for 7 additional regions of the country. And in the UK, Health Sec. Hancock is now considering putting COVID-19 patients into hotels to ease capacity pressure on the NHS.  However, while it would surely help make space, that measure would not help any personnel, material or equipment capacity issues.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  China showed the only red with Shenzhen (-1.08%), Shanghai (-0.27%), and Hong Kong (-0.15%) to the downside.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+1.74%), Malaysia (+1.53%), and Japan (+1.04%) led gainers.  European markets are also mixed, but lean to the red side on modest moves so far today.  Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE (-0.20%) , DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (-0.10%) are all slightly red.   As of 7:30 am, US futures are also in the red.  The DIA is implying a -0.18% open, the SPY a -0.28% open, and the QQQ a -0.26% open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Dec. CPI (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book and Dec. Federal Budget Balance (both at 2 pm) and 4 Fed Speakers (Bullard at 9:30 am, Brainard at 1 pm, Harker at 2 pm, and Clarida at 3 pm). Major earnings reports include INFO, INFY, SJR, and WIT before the open.  There are no major earnings reports after the close.

With no surge of earnings today and the political drama still only slowly simmering, markets may be wont to drift with threats of more seditious violence 3-10 days away (according to FBI reports). If we look at the bright side, this sideways action could be taken as good for the bulls as over-extension gets worked off. However, be careful of odd moves. Bloomberg reported that six of the 10 most active stocks on Monday were penny stocks which moved in massive swings on no particular news, possibly pointing to major pump-and-dump or other unknown activity.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits (base hits are the way we build consistency) and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the overall market, the specific chart, and your own trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PTON, LYFT, XLB, XLI, CPE, MOMO, SPCE, NKLA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Heads up:  There will be no Tuesday morning blog, my Buckeyes play tonight.

Markets gapped up moderately on Friday and then did a roller-coaster selloff until mid-afternoon.  At that point, the bulls stepped in and led a strong rally that lasted right into the close.  This left the SPY and DIA with Hanging Man type candles.  All 3 major indices closed at yet another new all-time high close.   On the day, QQQ (+1.29%) led, while the SPY gained 0.57% and the DIA gained 0.17%.  VXX lost another percent to 16.35 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 87.06.  10-year bond yields screamed higher again to 1.119% and Oil (WTI) gained 3.74% to $52.73/barrel.

On the heels of Thursday night’s large government fine and charges, in what may be more bad news for BA, an older model of the 737 (a 737-500) crashed a few minutes after takeoff in Indonesia on Saturday.  The black boxes were located on Sunday and the Indonesian government hopes to retrieve them from the ocean shortly. In other trading news, Bitcoin is proving as volatile as ever for crypto traders. It has fallen 11% overnight on what analysts are saying is likely profit-taking.  This comes as the Dollar rose against global currencies.

In continued fallout from Wednesday’s seditious riots on the US Capitol, AAPL followed GOOGL lead and has removed the radical right alternative to TWTR from its app store.  TWTR, FB, YouTube and other social media have also banned the President and most of his leading conspiracy theory spewing followers such as QAnon, Sidney Powell, Rudy Giuliani, Michael Flynn, etc. Other related news includes Congress demanding VP Pence invoke the 25th Amendment and they are also expected to pass another Impeachment this week. For his part, the President apparently intends to try changing the topic and running out the clock by traveling to a section of the border wall in Texas.

Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US.  The totals have risen to 22,917,334 confirmed cases and 383,275 deaths.  The post-holiday surge is now starting to hit, as we average 250,368 new cases and 3,306 deaths per day.  The US has now seen more than 100,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations for 40 days in a row.  Harvard and MIT report that the US is lagging in the speed of genetic sequencing of samples, which helps explain why so few cases of the new UK variant have been found.  In the US it takes 85 days on average from sample collection to posting sequences.  This is slower than many smaller and poorer countries (such as Bangledesh).

Globally, the numbers rose to 90,769,055 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,944,726 deaths.  As a reference, the world is averaging over 725,000 new cases and almost 13,000 new deaths per day. In the UK, the Chief Medical Officer of the country said Britain was at the worst point of the pandemic.  The UK plans to tighten its lockdown in response.  However, in France, the government says no new lockdown measures are needed at this point.  In China, they have completed the mass testing of over 17 million people in one province…all done in 5 days. In Japan, they have identified (genetically sequenced) yet another COVID-19 variant.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Japan (+2.36%) far outpaced all other gainers, while Shenzhen (-1.80%), Shanghai (-1.08%), and Malaysia (-0.98%) had the worst losses.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean much more heavily to the downside as of mid-day on the continent.  Among the 3 major bourses, the FTSE is down 0.51%, the DAX down 0.68%, and the CAC down 0.60%.   As of 7:30 am, US Futures are following Europe this morning.  The DIA is implying a gap down of 0.77%, the SPY implying a gap down of 0.64%, and the QQQ implying a gap down of 0.63%. This is possibly pre-market profit-taking after a strong week and trying to time exuberance.

There is no major economic news for Monday, but there is a Fed speaker (Bostic at noon).  Major earnings reports on the day are limited to CMC before the open and SNX after the close.

Markets have moved on from the seditious Washington riots and seem to be more focused on extension, if not valuations at these all-time highs. With no economic data or earnings to change the narrative, the balance seems to be between how much Mr. Market likes President-elect Biden’s stimulus plans and the vaccine rollout versus how much he fears over-extension and the virus. Keep this in mind as you decide whether to add positions, hedge your bets, or take money off the table.

As always, follow the trend, respect both support and resistance, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.  Lock in those profits (base hits are better than long fly-outs) and stick with your discipline.  Focus on the market, the chart, and your trading process. Remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Go Bucks!

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PEIX, BMY, ZEN, CSCO, PTON, PINS, LOW, JD, GE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service