The bulls worked hard to defend the 50-day average of the QQQ yesterday, even as the bears added technical damage to the DIA and SPY charts yesterday. I think there was a significant hopefulness that MSFT would produce an earnings report to support this effort, but with the company offering up weak revenue guidance, hope quickly faded. Factor in more stimulus delay’s rising infection rates as well as political uncertainty, and it’s no surprise that the bears are gaining ground.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as concerns of economic impacts continue to grow with rising infection rates. European markets grappling with all the uncertainties trade sharply lower this morning. U.S. Futures ahead of a big day of earnings and economic data point to a punishing gap down, adding significant technical damage to the index charts. Hang on; it could be a very volatile day!
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
The earnings reports ramp up this Wednesday with more than 100 verified companies stepping up to quarterly results. Notable reports include AEM, AMGN, NLY, ANTM, BX, BA, BOOT, BSX, EAT, CHDN, DB, DRE, EBAY, EPD, EQIX, ESS, ETSY, FSLY, FCAU, F, GRMN, GD, GE, GILD, GSK, GRUB, HES, LVGO, MAS, MA, NDLS, NSC, ORLY, PINS, R, SIX, RGR, SPWR, TDOC, TUP, UPS, V, WELL, WDC, WH, & TUMC.
News & Technicals’
Uncertainty settled the market into a choppy trading range most of yesterday, with bears ultimately gaining the edge by the close of the day. After the bell, MSFT reported better than expected but guided revenue lower, adding some selling pressure in aftermarket trading. It could be a rough day for some tech giants as FB, GOOG, and TWTR CEOs get grilled by a Senate committee. They hope to convince the Senate not to change liability laws that currently allow social media site protections that mainstream media outlets don’t enjoy. Should the laws change, it could forever change the social media industry. The delays continue to pile up on the stimulus front, with some now suggesting a deal may not happen until early 2021. Combine that with another big day of reported infections and rising deaths, and markets worldwide feel the pressure this morning.
Yesterday’s bearish follow-through day of selling added significant technical damage to the DIA and SPY charts. The QQQ managed a weak bounce off its 50-day average but with the market pointing to a nasty overnight reversal that will drop the index below this critical technical level. Facing a big round of earnings reports, International Trade and Petroleum numbers volatility will remain high, and I suspect that will continue through the election and possibly beyond. One possible bright spot is that with this morning’s gap down, the T2122 will show a short-term oversold condition. That said, it may be difficult for bulls to find inspiration amid all the economic and political uncertainty.
Tuesday gave us an ugly roller-coaster day that ended near the lows. Only the major FAANGM stocks managed to fight the trend, which helped the QQQ to at least form an indecisive Spinning Top type candle that held up above the 50sma. On the day, SPY lost 0.34%, DIA lost 0.84%, and QQQ gained 0.78%. The VXX was on the positive side of flat at 24.27 and T2122 remains oversold at 14.07. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.769% and Oil (WTI) rose one and a quarter percent to $39.04/barrel.
Mortgage applications were flat this week following 4 straight weeks of declines. Of those applications that were made, refinancing mortgages increased as a percentage. That said, the overall volume of loan requests is up 24% from one year ago. This has been helped by another slight fall in rates from 3.02% to 3.00%.
The CEOs of FB, GOOG, and TWTR will testify before a Senate Committee today (odd considering the Senate is adjourned) related to proposed changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act that would remove liability immunity for companies related to what is said by others on their platform. Republicans are decrying bias against Conservatives, Democrats are decrying the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation, and the President wants no limits on what he can say without being labeled. For their part, the companies are expected to argue that removing the limits would kill smaller online forums, slow communication, and greatly increase costs as every single word transmitted would need to be moderated.
The virus is raging across the US as we passed 9 million cases. 36 states have virus hospitalizations rising by at least 5% (this week) with 43 states reporting increasing new case counts that grew more than 5% versus a week ago as well. In fact, on Tuesday more than half the states reported their highest daily new case totals in at least one month. The numbers show we now have 9,039,170 confirmed cases and 232,101 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count spiking again to 72,731/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 842. The city of Chicago has reinstated restrictions on indoor restaurants and bars as cases race in the city.
Globally, the numbers rose to 44,328,799 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,173,225 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 411,000 new cases Monday with a 7-day average about 459,000. Global Covid deaths rose by over 7,000 on the day. Germany, Poland, and Belgium all reported a record number of new cases. Meanwhile, France announced new restrictions today. In the UK, a scientific study has found that the number of people having virus antibodies has fallen 26% in the last 3 months. This suggests that organic post-infection immunity may be short-lived. This comes as the WHO reports there were a record 2.8 million new cases reported worldwide in the last week.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red yet again. Singapore (-1.17%), and Taiwan (-0.63%) led the losses. Shenzhen (0.68%) and South Korea (+0.62%) led gainers. However, in Europe, markets are heavily in the red across the board so far this morning. The raging virus continues to weigh on markets in Europe. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is down 1.79%, DAX down 3.26%, and CAC down 2.09% this morning. The rest of European Exchanges are down between one and three percent at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a strong gap lower at the open. The Dow is implying an open down 1.78%, S&P down 1.39%, and the NASDAQ down 1.02% at the moment.
The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Sept. Trade Balance and Sept. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 6 pm). Major earnings on the day include ADP, ANTM, BA, BG, BSX, BX, CLS, CME, DAN, DBD, EAT, EPD, ETR, FCAU, MA, MAS, MKL, NSC, OC, PPD, R, SC, SEE, SNE, TEL, TMHC, TT, UPS, and YNDX before the open. Then after the close, AFG, AMGN, AMP, AR, ASGN, AVT, AVTR, CACI, CERN, CTSH, CXO, EBAY, EQIX, F, FBHS, GILD, KLAC, MOH, MUSA, NOW, ORLY, OVV, SFM, SSNC, SU, URI, V, VALE, WCN, WDC, WELL, and YUMC report.
The 3 big Es are adding to volatility now…elevated virus, election worry, and earnings. With stimulus apparently a dead idea until after elections are held (and probably until results are known), this is a risky environment to wade into very much. So, expect and plan for the volatility if you’re trading.
It looks like a nasty open, this morning, but maybe a flurry of earnings reports will change matters for the better. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Wednesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Rising infection rates and concerns of more economic impacts, brought out the bears yesterday, breaking the psychological support of the 50-day average in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. Although the market seems certain government stimulus will eventually happen, Congress’s inability to reach a deal before the election puts tremendous pressure on earnings performance. Will earnings be enough amid so much future uncertainty?
Asian markets traded mixed but mostly lower overnight. European markets trade cautiously mixed this morning as the monitor earnings and the surging virus numbers. Here in the U.S, ahead of a big day of earnings and economic news, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a gap up open that may prove to recover the 50-day average in the SPY and QQQ. Expect another day of news-driven price volatility.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have more than 90 companies reporting as 4th quarter earnings ramp up on the Tuesday earnings calendar. Notable reports include, MSFT, MMM, AMD, AFL, AKAM, SAN, BP, CAT, CNC, CYH, GLW, CROX, DENN, ECL, LLY, FEYE, FSLR, BEN, HOG, IVZ, JBLU, LH, MKTX, MRK, NVS, RTX, QSR, SPGI, SHW, SSTK, SWK, & XRX.
News & Technicals’
Rising virus infections and no sign of stimulus from Congress brought out the bears yesterday, creating significant technical damage to the index charts. Today we have a big round of earnings reports that include market movers such as MSFT, AMD, and CAT. Still, as infection rates hit new records, the uncertainty may continue to weigh heavily even if earnings results come in bullishly. The WHO yesterday said gaining control of this new virus surge may require significant sacrifice, and hinting more restrictions may be on the horizon. U.S. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning as market participants are increasingly concerned about the viral upsurge and its potential economic impacts. The Senate confirmed Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court yesterday and blocked an attempt to extend the voting deadline in Wisconsin, a central battleground state in the presidential election.
With the DIA, SPY, and QQQ all closing the day below their 50-day averages, the index charts’ technical damage is starting to become a significant concern. However, as earrings roll out this morning, the bulls are trying to put on a brave face pointing to a gap up open that may suggest a defense of this critical psychological level on the SPY and QQQ this morning. The question to be answered, can earrings overcome the concerns and the possible economic impacts of COVID in the absence of governmental stimulus? One thing we can count on is that price volatility and sensitivity to news will continue to challenge even the most adept traders trying to navigate the uncertain path forward.
Markets gapped down about a percent Monday as the virus rages around the country. Then when Existing Home Sales fell 3.5%, the brief rally gave way to a strong selloff that lasted until 1:30 pm. After that, prices ground sideways until a late rally took prices well up off the lows. Still, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all gave up their short-term price and 50sma support levels. On the day, DIA was down 2.21%, SPY down 1.84%, and QQQ down 1.50%. VXX gained 9% on the day, closing at 24.17 and T2122 dropped like a rock, well into oversold territory at 11.60. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.804% and Oil (WTI) also dropped over 3% to $38.58/barrel.
Related to stimulus, talks continued Monday, but the blame game escalated too. After her call with negotiator counterparts failed to make more progress, House Speaker Pelosi sent a scathing letter decrying the Administration for “official malfeasance.” At the same time, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin declared that the problem was that “Pelosi has her heels dug in.” Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader McConnell was not part of the negations and adjourned the Senate until after the election just as soon as the ACB vote is finished Monday. So, the probability for any deal passing this week is now extremely remote.
Overnight it was announced that AMD will buy XLNX in a $35 billion all-stock deal. Both are competitors of INTC in the crucial (biggest dollar) datacenter market. LLY also said it has stopped testing of its monoclonal antibody treatments (the same class as one given the President) in hospitalized patients after a review showed it doesn’t appear to be helping.
The virus is raging across the US, even as many continue to downplay the need and/or usefulness of containment measures, politicians even claiming we’ve turned the corner. At the same time, 43 states reported increasing new case counts of more than 5% compared to a week ago. 32 states are now in the White House Task Force’s “Red Zone” (having more than 100 cases per 100k of population). The case numbers show we now have 8,962,783 confirmed cases and 231,045 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count having risen to 70,987/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 828. Dr. Fauci (NIH) and a pair of former FDA Commissioners all called for a national mask mandate to stem the growing wave of new cases.
Globally, the numbers rose to 43,857,818 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,165,500 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 411,000 new cases Monday with a 7-day average about 443,000. Global Covid deaths rose by over 5,100 on the day. Germany reported an exponential rise in cases Tuesday with 280 regions now considered virus hotspots (more than 50 cases per 100k of population). Russia also imposed a nationwide mask mandate among other new restrictions to control the virus. Meanwhile in good news, India reports another drop in new cases (to a level not seen since late July).
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red again. New Zealand (-1.75%) and Hong Kong (-0.53%) led the losses. Meanwhile, India (+1.03%) and Hong Kong (+0.54%) led gainers. In Europe, markets are flat to red across the board as the virus continues its surge throughout Europe and the US. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is flat at +0.13%, DAX fat at -0.04%, and CACA down at -0.64%. The rest of European Exchanges are down between 0.10% and 0.90% at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest gap higher at the open. All three major indices are implying an open up 0.40% at the moment.
The only major economic news for Tuesday is Sept. Durable Good Orders (8:30 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings on the day include ABG, BP, CAT, CMI, CNC, CSTM, DTE, ECL, GLW, HOG, HUBB, IVZ, LH, LLY, MMM, MRK, NVS, ODFL, OMC, PFE, PII, QSR, ROP, RTX, SHW, SWK, TECK, and XRX before the open. Then after the close, AFL, AMD, CB, CHRW, CYH, EIX, FISV, FTV, JNPR, MSFT, NCR, OI, OKE, THG, and UNM all report.
The Senate, having confirmed ACB as an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court adjourned to return home for politicking. This does remove a little uncertainty as there is now no way to achieve a deal on stimulus prior to the election. However, that won’t stop the two main negotiators from casting blame this week. The long and short of it is that the major market driver of last month (hope for more stimulus) is gone, leaving earnings and election worries to drive markets.
It looks like a green open, but there’s still quite a bit of work to do if the bulls want to climb back into the range of the last week’s candles. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend and recent support. Volatility is likely to continue with more economic news, major earnings, and only a week until the election. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get greedy, don’t chase the moves you have missed, and don’t predict. Be sure that you respect potential support and resistance. Follow the trend and trade your plan.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HOLX, BIDU, RAD, XLU, OKE, OTRK, RIOT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Could this be the perfect storm of market uncertainty? Election, new record infection rates, an earnings deluge, and a big week of economic data lining up to provide the potential for incredible price volatility. An environment best suited for very adept day traders that quickly react to morning gaps, whipsaw, and news-driven intra-day reversals. All other traders will find it difficult to impossible trade with an edge as the market reacts. Consider the risk carefully, and always remember protecting your capital is one of a trader’s primary jobs.
Asian markets traded mixed overnight as virus infections surge, and oil prices fall. European markets trade in the red this morning, with the DAX down more than 2%. U.S. futures point to a nasty gap down at the open ahead of earnings data and the latest reading on New Home Sales. Prepare for a wild week of uncertainty.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 30 verified companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include AGNC, ACC, BYD, CAJ, CINF, FFIV, HAS, NOV, OMF, PKG, & TWLO.
News & Technicals
With the election just one week away and a severe rise in pandemic infections, U.S. futures reflect the incredible uncertainty. With infection rates hitting a new record high, hospitalizations are rapidly increasing, and the death rates rise once again, determining any company’s market value amid all the impacts is near to impossible. That said, traders should expect wild price volatility to continue with extreme sensitivity to the news cycle. One bright light is the hope for a vaccine to combat the virus that could be available by early December but for small businesses, just barely holding that is little solace. Current market conditions favor the experienced day trader, and swing traders will find it very difficult to trade with an edge. Remember that just because the market is open does not mean you have to risk your hard-earned capital. One of the trader’s primary jobs, forgotten during uncertain markets, is to protect your money. Keep that in mind as you plan your risk forward.
Besides the election and pandemic, the market faces an earnings deluge and a big week of market-moving economic reports pouring rocket fuel to potential volatility. Expect large moring gaps, news-driven whipsaws, and intra-day reversals as the market tries to price such incredible uncertainty. Of course, we can’t forget the possibility that Congress could at any time announce a stimulus package. Plan your risk wisely.
Markets gapped up about four-tenths of a percent on increased hope for a stimulus deal. However, they immediately began slowly selling off the rest of the morning before slowly rallying all afternoon. At the end, prices closed about where they opened leaving indecisive, Doji-type candles. On the day SPY closed up 0.34%, QQQ, up 0.20%, and DIA down 0.11%. The VXX was flat at 22.17 and T2122 rose further into the overbought territory to 89.43. 10-year bond yields were down just slightly to 0.841% and Oil (WTI) fell 2% to $39.78. On the week, all 3 major indices had their first down week since mid-September.
On the stimulus front, talks broke down again Friday afternoon and over the weekend the blame game resumed, both sides claiming the other is moving the goalposts. In addition, the likelihood of progress on a deal at least early in the week is little as the ACB confirmation process and last-minute politicking has retaken center stage in Washington.
In business news, DNKN reported Sunday it is close to a deal with Inspire Brands (owner of Arby’s, Sonic, and Buffalo Wild Wings) to take the company private for $106.50/share). AAL announced that they will be holding “customer tours” and “Pilot conference calls” in the coming weeks in order to increase public confidence in the use of the troubles BA 737 Max plane. AAL said they are tentatively expecting the FAA to lift the 737 Max flight ban in the US sometime in mid-November and expects to hold its first flight on the plane on December 29. Finally, China is sanctioning BA and RTX over arms sales to Taiwan.
The virus is raging across the US, even as many continue to downplay the need and/or usefulness of containment measures. Over the weekend and White House Chief of Staff Meadows flat out stated “we’re not going to control the virus” (brushing off the recommended mitigation methods apparently in favor of economic growth). The country posted a record-high number of cases both Friday and Saturday. At the same time, 24 states reported single-day new case highs at least once in the last 7 days, 35 states report case counts increasing more than 10% (on a 7-day average basis versus a week ago), and 31 states are in the White House Task Force’s “Red Zone” (having more than 100 cases per 100k of their population). The case numbers show we now have 8,889,577 confirmed cases and 230,510 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count have risen to 68,951/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 818.
Globally, the numbers rose to 43,405,696 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,159,835 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 428,000 new cases Sunday with a 7-day average about 418,000. Global Covid deaths rose by nearly 6,000 on the day. European numbers are surging as governments continue with the least possible impactful responses such as Spain implementing an 11pm to 6am curfew. However, in good news, AZN reported Monday that its vaccine candidate does produce a similar immune response to virus exposure. While adverse responses to the vaccine were seen, those responses were lower than catching the virus itself, which is obviously a good thing.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red again. India (-1.36%) and Shanghai (-0.82%) led the losses, while Hong Kong (+0.54%) and Shenzhen (+0.52%) led gainers. In Europe, markets are solidly red across the board as the virus surges throughout Europe and the US. Among the big 3 bourses, the DAX is down 2.09%, the CAC down 0.40%, and the FTSE relatively flat at down 0.10% at this point in their day. The rest of the European Exchanges are down roughly a half to one percent. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap down at the open. The large-cap indices are both down 0.85%, with the QQQ showing the least weakness at -0.63% as of now.
The only major economic news for Monday is Sept. New Home Sales (10 am). Major earnings on the day include HAS, HCA, OTIS, and SAP before the open. Then after the close, AMKR, CE, CINF, GOOG, GOOGL, NOV, NXPI, and PKG report.
With the Senate locked on ACB Confirmation debate and votes and the Speaker of the House and the President’s Negotiators back to casting blame, stimulus will have to take a back seat for at least a day or two. (Of course, this is also the stretch run of the election. So, all politicians also have things they’d rather focus on than the people’s business right now.) So, the major recent market driver (hope for more stimulus) remains in limbo and there are no other obvious drivers for the day.
It looks like a red open, but still in the range of the last week’s candles. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, it looks like we may have found some support close below. Just remember that while unlikely today, even a whiff of a stimulus deal would likely turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get greedy, don’t chase the moves you have missed, and don’t predict. Be sure that you respect potential support and resistance. Follow the trend and trade your plan.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIOT, BLL, FTCH, FB, FCX, FITB, NIO, TLRY, M, GNUS, MARK, YY. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Markets started off flat on Thursday, but began a rally at 11 am that lasted the rest of the day (on optimistic stimulus comments from House Speaker Pelosi). This left all 3 major indices with hammer-like candles (although the QQQ hammer has a black body). On the day, SPY gained 0.56%, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ was dead flat. The VXX lost 2% to 22.15 and T2122 4-week New High-Low Ratio climbed back into overbought territory at 86.56. 10-year bond yields rose sharply to 0.865% and Oil (WTI) was also up 1.5% to $40.65/barrel.
The big news during the day was the House Speaker Pelosi told reporters “we are just about there” on a stimulus deal. She went on to say the remaining issues seem to be wording and then getting Senate Republicans to agree to the deal. However, White House staff (like Economic Advisor Kudlow) expressed optimism that they “could round up the needed votes from their side of the aisle.” That said, no official deal has been announced yet, nor votes scheduled, let alone timing of any disbursements.
After the close, the FDA approved GILD antiviral drug remdesivir as an emergency use treatment for Covid-19 and their stock soared after-hours. MAT stock also jumped on an earnings beat (heavy Barbie and Hot Wheels sales). However, even though INTC beat overall, the stock got thoroughly hammered on poor results both in the consumer desktop and the cash-cow datacenter sectors (where AMD is eating their lunch despite INTC’s massive market share). Later Thursday night a CA Appeals Court ruled UBER and LYFT must comply with state and federal employee labor laws for all people they had previously treated as independent contractors.
On the virus front, in the US the numbers show we now have 8,664,365 confirmed cases and 228,423 deaths. After another day with 74,301 cases, the 7-day average daily new case count has risen to 62,993/day, while the 973 deaths only moved the daily average of deaths slightly to 808. 5 states reported new record high daily case counts, while 14 more states reported record-high 7-day average counts. Chicago announced business closures from 10 pm to 6 am as new cases, hospitalizations and deaths have spiked in that region.
Globally, the numbers rose to 42,083,997 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,144,239 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 478,000 new cases Thursday (a record high new case count). Global Covid deaths have also risen (almost 7,000 again on the day), but on average remain about 5,690 per day. A record for new cases were reported throughout Europe, including Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands. However, in Asia, India continues to open up its country (economy) in belief they are past the most recent wave.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red. Shenzhen (-1.90%) and Shanghai (-1.04%) led the losses, while Hong Kong (+0.54%) and New Zealand (+0.51%) led gainers. In Europe, markets are solidly green across the board so far today on hope for US stimulus. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is up 1.53%, the DAX up 1.11%, and the CAC up 1.37%. The rest of European Exchanges are more modestly green. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly higher open with all 3 major indices showing +0.22% as of now.
The major economic news for Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am). However, major earnings reports include ALV, AXP, BLMN, CLF, CRI, and ITW all report before the open. There are no earnings reports after the close.
With the Presidental Debate done, little major economic news, and relatively few major earnings, the main driver of stocks Friday is likely to be stimulus negotiations. Even with both sides of the negotiation saying a deal is close, much doubt remains. The third-side that was essentially not part of the negotiations (Senate GOP) will have the ball in their court once a deal is passed. So, major doubts remain whether anything will get done before the election. That being the case, we are likely to see more volatility until more clarity emerges with hope driving markets up and fear of delay or renegotiation with the Senate Republicans driving prices down. Meanwhile, the virus continues to surge, but markets seem to have baked that fact into the cake and are now more worried about political risk and stimulus.
Remember this is Friday, so think about whether you need to hedge or lighten up in front of the weekend news cycles. Also, continue to be careful and nimble in this whip-saw market. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, it looks like we may have found some support the last 3-4 days and all it will take is a whiff of a stimulus deal to turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get too greedy, don’t chase the moves you have missed, and don’t predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance. Follow the trend and trade your plan.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DIS, WBA, GILD, SCHW, SO, WRB, XLE, TLRY, USB, AA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Today we face a big day of earnings news that has been a mixed bag of results so far this quarter. Couple that with the uncertainty of stimulus, rising virus impacts, election meddling by Iran, and Russia expect extreme sensitivity to the news cycle and the significant price volatility to continue. The DIA, SPY, and QQQ are quickly approaching their 50-day averages, and one has to wonder if they can hold as support without a stimulus deal. If we head into the weekend still waiting on a deal, don’t be too surprised to see the bears become more aggressive.
Happy Thursday!
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower overnight as the IMF downgrades economic growth forecasts amid rapidly rising infection rates worldwide. European markets are flat this morning as they continue to monitor U.S. stimulus talks and earnings results. U.S. futures point to a slightly bearish open at this time, but with a big day of earrings and Jobless Claims numbers, anything is possible by the open. Plan your risk carefully and be prepared for news-driven whipsaws and full reversals.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have our busiest day of the week on the Thursday earnings calendar, with 80 verified quarterly reports. Notable reports include ALK, AB, AAL, AEP, T, BJRI, SAM, CTXS, KO, DOW, EHTH, FITB, FCX, GPC, HBAN, INTC, KMB, LLNW, MTB, MAT, NOC, NUE, PBCT, PHM, DGX, RHI, STX, SIRI, LUV, TSCO, UNP, VLO, VRSN, GWW, & WST.
News & Technicals’
Wednesday was another day of struggle as the market waits for a decision on stimulus negotiations. The bulls controlled the positive morning gaps that quickly ran out of steam allowing the bears access and leaving behind tremendous uncertainty in the candle patterns. With the DOW, SPY, and QQQ drawing near their 50-day averages, a test of this key technical levels seems likely unless news of a stimulus deal occurs soon. Although there is a palpable uncertainty in the market, the index charts’ technical damage is minimal, with lower highs as the primary concern. However, that damage could become critical if the 50-day moving averages are unable to hold as support. Earnings thus far have shown a mixed bag of results, and with today being the biggest round of reports so far this season, we should expect an extra dose of price volatility as a result. As the election draws near, the FBI says both Iran and Russia have obtained U.S. voter registration data to influence the outcome. A cybersecurity firm confirmed that a hacker is trying to sell info on 148 million U.S. voters. Despite the issues, please get out and vote! The oil industry is now warning of significant layoffs in the coming weeks as rising virus infection rates substantially impact the sector. I can only imagine the damage and helplessness business must feel as the infection and death rate numbers increase and the worry of more restrictions on the horizon.
Overnight futures were quite bearish, but this morning they have bounced off the lows, trying to put on a brave face ahead of a slew of earnings and economic news that includes the latest reading on Jobless Claims. With so much uncertainty swirling about, expect a considerable price sensitivity to stimulus and virus news. If there is still no deal as we head into the weekend, I would not be surprised to see the bears become more aggressive. Plan your risk carefully.
Wednesday was another roller coaster day for stocks as the opened before running up and down all day, closing on the lows. All 3 major indices printed ugly black high-wick, inverted hammer type candles. On the day the QQQ was flat (-0.08%), SPY was down 0.21%, and DIA was down 0.35%. The VXX was also down to 22.67 and T2122 fell back to almost exactly mid-range. 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.818% (the High since June) and Oil (WTI) fell over 4% to $39.97/barrel.
Stimulus (or the lack thereof) remained the main story during the day. The Senate failed to pass the $500 billion PPP loan/grant program Majority Leader McConnell had been pushing. At the same time, while negotiations continue, House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin failed to reach a deal. However, both sides announced that differences are narrowing and that they are optimistic for a deal. Talks will continue on Thursday. However, even if a deal is reached, it is still an open question if and when McConnell would bring the deal to a Senate vote or whether they could get a larger deal passed. FDA Head Hahn also said that while no timeline exists, the goal remains that all Americans will be able to begin a vaccine course by sometime next Spring.
Purdue Pharma has plead guilty to 3 federal criminal charges stemming from opioid marketing, will pay a $8 billion fine, and the Sackler family will close the company as an entity while the operations continue as a new company. Several State Attorney’s General objected to the deal, which would create a government-controlled business from the assets of the company (to continue making/selling Oxycontin). The objection is based on the states would likely have gotten more money from a private sale, because at least one other drug manufacturer has expressed interest in purchasing the business. However, the DOJ has completed the deal anyway.
On the virus front, in the US the numbers show we now have 8,585,748 confirmed cases and 227,419 deaths. After another day in excess of 63,600 cases, the 7-day average daily new case count has risen to 61,481/day, while the over 1,200 deaths only moved the daily average of deaths slightly to 794. With that background, the CDC reported an alarming trend with surging cases all across the country and particularly high transmission levels in the Midwest as national cases have risen 17% in the last week. However, NIH Director Collins says a viable vaccine should be approved in the next couple of months with wide availability sometime in Q2 of 2021. In related good news, the head of the “Warp Speed” program told Bloomberg that it is possible both the JNJ and AZN phase 3 trials would be allowed to restart this week.
Globally, the numbers rose to 41,568,570 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,137,684 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 437,000 new cases Wednesday (a record high new case count). Global Covid deaths have also risen (almost 7,000 on the day), but on average remain about 5,640 per day. In the UK, the country saw another record number of new cases. In Poland, the daily death count has reached four times the count during the first wave as the country recorded another consecutive record number of new cases and has turned the national stadium into a field hospital. A similar situation runs throughout Europe, in particular the Eastern part of the continent including Russia, but also Italy, Belgium, Germany, and Ireland.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly lower with South Korea (-0.67%) and Shenzhen (-0.49%) leading the modest losses. In Europe, markets are mixed so far today with very modest moves so far. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is up 0.10%, the DAX flat +0.01%, and the CAC up 0.17%. The rest of European Exchanges are mainly in the red. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modestly lower open with all 3 major indices showing -0.20% as of now.
The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Sept. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 6 pm). However, there is also the final Presidential debate at 9 pm. Major earnings reports include AAL, AB, AEP, CTXS, DGX, DHR, DOW, EQT, FAF, FCX, FITB, GPC, GWW, HBAN, KMB, LUV, MTB, NOC, NUE, PAG, PHM, POOL, RCI, RS, SIRI, SON, STM, T, TSCO, UNP, and VLO all before the open. Then after the close, COF, INTC, MAT, RHI, SIVB, and TFII report.
Jobless claims or some tidbit from the stimulus negotiations are likely the only drivers today, in front of the last Presidential Debate. That being the case, we may see another day of rest in the markets as traders seek more clarity. The virus continues to surge, but markets seem to have baked that fact into the cake and are now more worried about political risk and stimulus. Of course, earnings reports remain the wildcard, with mixed but generally positive results reported so far against much-lowered expectations.
Continue to be careful and nimble in this whipping market. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend. However, all it takes is a whiff of a stimulus deal to turn the bulls loose. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get too greedy, don’t chase the moves you have missed, and don’t predict. Be sure you respect potential support and resistance. Follow the trend and trade your plan.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AA, BKR, WRB, HUN, SO, DIS, KSS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Will they or won’t they agree on a stimulus deal remains the big question of the day? Emotions are high on the subject that could have dramatic effects on the short-term market direction. If Pelosi and the White House finally agree, there is still the uncertainty if the Senate has the votes to pass a spending plan over 2 Trillion. That said, news of a deal expect the bulls to celebrate. A failure to reach an agreement and expect a market temper tantrum, creating technical damage in the index charts. Hold on for another uncertain day as we wait.
Asian markets closed mixed but mostly higher overnight, but European markets trade in the red across the board this morning. US Futures point to flat open as we wait on stimulus news, earnings, and economic data. Expect volatility and remain focused and flexible as anything is possible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 35 verified companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include TSLA, ABT, AN, BKR, BIIB, CMG, CCI, CSX, DFS, EW, DFX, GL, KEY, KMI, LRCX, LVS, LAD, MANU, NDAQ, NEE, SUI, TMO, VX, WHR, & WGO.
News & Technicals’
Apparently, the Pelosi imposed deadline has passed and was nothing more than a negotiation tactic as talks continue today. Yesterdays’ price action reflected the high market emotion chopping rather violently as hope rose and fell throughout the day. The good news is we do not have to deal with a considerable gap this morning but, we will have to prepare for another day of uncertainty with high volatility on a deal or no deal news event. After the bell, NFLX disappointed investors by missing earnings estimates. Shares of the streaming behemoth indicate more than a 25 dollar per share drop at today open. According to reports, next week’s GDP report will likely show record-breaking economic growth if estimates are correct. Across the pond, the top Brexit negotiator says that a trade deal is now in reach, boosting the British pound overnight. That could have ripple effects in the currency markets today, lowering the US Dollar and proving the energy for Gold to break above price resistance.
Technically speaking, the bulls have defended critical price supports in the index charts, but the palpable uncertainty has them teetering on the edge. A lot is riding on the stimulus deal’s outcome, and traders should prepare for a substantial and volatile price move as news spin on the subject tugs on market emotion. The bulls will likely celebrate with a strong rally should they hammer out a deal, but we should also prepare for a market temper tantrum and a bear attack should they fail. Keep an eye on the news and stay focused on price action as we wait.
