Rising bond rates created a little uneasiness yesterday, robbing the bullish energy created in the morning gap to new highs. This morning the rapid decline in mortgage applications due to the rising interest rates may also contribute to futures taking a wait-and-see approach. We have a big day of earnings and economic reports with PPI and Retail Sales before the bell and the FOMC minutes later this afternoon. I think it’s fair to say anything is possible with that much data for the market to digest.
Asian markets traded mixed overnight, with Hong Kong surging more than 1%. European markets show modest declines across the board as they track rising Treasury yields. Ahead of a big day of data, the U.S. Futures point to flat but slightly lower open at the time of this report. However, with a significant day reports, anything is possible. Stay focused and flexible.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Wednesday earnings calendar, we have just short of 100 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include SHOP, ALB, ADI, AXTA, BIDU, SAM, BCOV, FUN, CAKE, CHH, CDE, CONE, ET, EQT, FSLY, GRMN, GPC, GOOD, HVT, HLF, H, IAG, IQ, JACK, MIC, MANT, MRO, NI, OC, PAAS, SNBR, STMP, RGR, SPWR, SKT, TLRY, TWLO, WCN, WING, & WIX.
News & Technicals’
While the DIA made a new record high yesterday, it was not the kind of price action that provided a lot of confidence. I mentioned being careful of the possibility of a pop and drop pattern after the substantial gap up. Although we did pullback after the open, there was no technical damage in the price action; in fact, it could have been much worse with the concerns of rising bond yields. The bitter cold snap highlighted a significant deficiency in the U.S. power grid and exposed a massive deficiency in green energy efforts. The rolling blackouts affected a large portion of the county, with Texas being the hardest hit from the winter storm. According to reports, SpaceX raised another $850 million in funding, increasing the company valuation overnight. The European-based game developer Epic Games filed an antitrust complaint against Apple as the attack on big tech continues.
Trends remain very bullish, but with concerns of rising bond rates, U.S. Futures seem to be taking a wait-and-see approach this morning. Mortgage applications reported another decline in demand at the fastest pace in months as interest rates rise. We have a busy economic calendar with PPI and Retail Sales before the bell. The consensus expects an increase in retail numbers due to the last stimulus checks. Also, keep in mind the industrial production numbers and the FOMC minutes later this afternoon. If that’s not enough to create price volatility, toss in about 100 earings reports for the market to digest as well. Anything is possible, so stay focused on price action.
Markets gapped up one-third to one-half of a percent Tuesday and then ground sideways to down in all 3 major indices. This left us with black-body candles that were flat for the session. For the day DIA led with a gain of 0.17% (another all-time high close) while the SPY (-0.09%) and QQQ (-0.27%) were on the red side of flat. VXX gained a little over a percent to 15.92 and T2122 fell back, but remains just inside the overbought territory at 82.87. 10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.311% (the highest in nearly a year) and Oil (WTI) rose 67 cents to close at $60.143/barrel.
The brutal winter storm continues to be the big news story. Rolling power blackouts (total blackouts in places like parts of TX) and treacherous driving conditions through the Midwest (TX to MN) are having impacts on business we well as people. Among the industries hit are Oil and Gas Fracking, which has halted throughout the Permian Basin due to the inability to ship product. As a result, Nat Gas prices spiked to $999/million BTU for next-day delivery in OK (versus $4.19/million last week). While this is the worst example, other contracts sold at $700, $620, $400, and $275/million at various hubs.
Bitcoin has set another all-time high this morning, almost touching $52,000 as major investment banks and other firms are starting to support the digital currency. Mortgage demand also fell over 5% last week as interest rates are increasing at the fastest pace in months. 30-year fixed rate mortgages now average 2.98%, with new purchase loan applications down 6% on the week.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 28,381,220 confirmed cases and 499,991 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average new cases are now 82,841 new cases per day. However, deaths remain at a stubbornly high level of 2,270 per day. The University of Virginia has banned all in-person events after 117 new cases (including many of the UK variant) were reported on their campus yesterday. Even assuming FDA approval, JNJ will be delivering their one-shot vaccine much slower than the government had been led to believe. While 20-30 million doses by April had been expected, an apparent “miscommunication” now leads to an expectation that the number will be less than 10 million doses in that time. However, President Biden promised the country would have enough vaccine by the end of July to vaccinate every American (at least those that will take one).
Globally, the numbers rose to 110,115,976 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,431,617 deaths. However, the trends are good. The world’s average of new cases continues to fall quickly and is now down to 374,515 per day. Mortality lags but is also falling, now down to 10,630 new deaths per day. South Africa has received its first shipment of the JNJ vaccine and discussions are underway as to whether to restart vaccinations (which were stopped when the MRNA vaccine was found to not work for the South African variant). And in better news, Sri Lanka has reopened their country for tourists without quarantine. However, they want no mingling between visitors and locals (and I have no idea how that would work).
Overnight, the few Asian markets that were open were mostly red. The dramatic outlier was Taiwan (+3.54%), mostly on the strength of TSM (+4.91%). In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly red so far today. The FTSE (-0.22%), CAC (-0.03%), and DAX (-0.57%) are a typical spread with a few minor exchanges like Belgium and Portugal on the green side. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA is barely green (+0.03%), the SPY barely red (-0.02%) and the QQQ just red (-0.19%) at this hour.
The major economic news for Wednesday includes Jan. PPI and Jan. Retail Sales (both at 8:30 am), Jan. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Dec. Business Inventories (10 am), and Release of FOMC Jan. Minutes (2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include ADI, ATH, CRL, COMM, ENCL, EQT, ES, GRMN, GPC, HSIC, HLT, NI, OC, SHOP, and SAH before the open. Then after the close, ALB, ALSN, AEL, AR, AXTA, BIDU, CF, CAKE, CYH, ET, HLF, IQ, MANT, MOS, NTR, OVV, PXD, RBC, SNBR, SUN, SNPS, TROX, UFPIVMI, and WCN report.
Again, with Congress gone for the week, earnings, economic news, and the winter storm are likely to drive the discussion. The bulls are still in charge of the trend, but it is the wall of worry (about overextension) that guides them, not an all-out bull charge. Be leery of any volatile moves at this point as it may signal exhaustion.
It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline. So, keep locking in your profits when you have them. Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. Just stick with your plans, maintain discipline and work your process. Focus on getting rich slowly and not trying to hit the lottery.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TRV, BA, SBUX, PENN, CCL, X, GOGO, CBAT, IPHI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
While the severe cold is slowing down most of the country, the bulls remain undeterred, with the futures pointing more index records at the open. Although we have a short market week of trading, we have a week chalked full of earnings and economic reports for traders to digest. Expect price volatility to remain high as a result. Be careful chasing the morning record-setting gap with a fear of missing out. Please make sure we see follow-through buying and not the dreaded pop and drop that we can sometimes experience at market highs. Stay focused and flexible.
Overnight Asian markets rallied with lead by the HIS up nearly 2% on the day. However, European markets are trading nearly flat and have fluctuated throughout the morning, seemly concerned about the extending risk rally. The U.S. Futures don’t share that concern with the bulls charging forward, likely to set new records in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ at the open. Fasten your seatbelts as the buying frenzy continues.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
As we begin a short market week, we have about 80 companies stepping up to report quarterly results. Notable reports include AAP, A, ALX, ACC, AIG, ANDE, AN, CAR, BYD, CLR, DENN, DVN, ECL, ES, EXAS, EXPD, GEO, INVH, LZB, LPX, OXY, PLTR, RNG, TRU, VNO, YNDX & ZTS.
News & Technicals’
As ugly cold snap grips, the country’s oil hits pandemic highs, with rolling blackouts due to the massive demand for power. However, the cold has not dampened the spirit of the bulls as they pushed sharply higher overnight. The 30-year Treasury yield is holding above 2%, a level not seen in nearly a year. Not satisfied with the Trump acquittal, Speaker Pelosi has announced an independent 9/11-style commission on the Capitol riot. According to reports, Australia will support the proposed media law on Facebook and Google. The new law would require the media giants to pay for the news created by other agencies. Google has threatened to turn off its search app in the country should it pass. Should other countries join in with this tactic, it would have far-reaching impacts on social media.
Though the market experienced a little price weakness last week, the futures are fired up this morning. If current prices hold until the open, the DIA, SPY, and QQQ will set new record highs a the open, with a sharp gap-up move. Trends are decidedly bullish, but I suspect the T2122 indicator will suggest a very extended condition at the open. Before chasing in with a fear of missing out, let’s make sure we see follow-through buying rather than getting caught in a classic pop a drop price pattern. We have a busy week of earnings and economic calendar news, so continue to expect wild price volatility while trying to price in the next round of government stimulus.
Markets were dead most of the day Friday, but a strong rally on volume the last half hour took all 3 major indices on near the highs of the day. This created large-body Bullish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ, while the DIA missed engulfing by 7 cents. On the day, SPY gained 0.51%, QQQ gained 0.56%, and DIA lagged at +0.11%. With that said, all 3 of the major averages closed at another all-time high close. The VXX fell over 3% to 15.74 and T2122 remains well into the overbought territory at 88.11. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.205% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2.5% to close at $59.66/barrel.
Also on Friday, ahead of their taking this week off, House Democrats pushed forward the parts of the relief plan that cover the $1,400 direct payments, payments to families with children (up to $3,600/child under age 6), and an extension of unemployment. These portions are out of committee and are still on track to be passed as a single “budget” bill to be reconciled with Senate versions by the end of the month. In unrelated news, President Biden called on Congress to pass “commonsense gun laws” on Sunday. The specifics called for are an elimination of immunity for gunmakers, universal background checks, and a ban on selling “assault-style” weapons and high-capacity magazines. This may well move gun stocks like RGR, SWBI, VSTO, etc.
Interesting news out of oil giant RDS. The Dutch company said on Monday that they believe the world hit “peak oil production” in 2019 with the Covid outbreak accelerating the move away from Oil. In fact, RDS said they main profit center will become liquified natural gas as time moves forward. With that said, the price of oil has hit a pandemic high this this last week, with WTI trading at $61.77 at one point, and is holding above $60 in the winter storm, which theoretically ought to stoke more production. Still, carmakers like GM are fast-tracking the move to electric vehicles with Chevy also adding 2 new electric models to their Bolt line on Monday.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to be of concern in the US. The totals have risen to 28,317,703 confirmed cases and 498,203 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues to fall quickly and is back down to the October level as the average new cases are now 87,603 new cases per day. However, deaths remain at a stubbornly high level of 2,481 per day. While new cases are down 62% this week, the CDC also announced Sunday that they have identified 7 new US-originated variants. Still, PFE and MRNA are contracted to deliver another 130 million doses over the next 6 weeks (versus the 70 million that have been delivered so far). So, we may be turning a corner.
Globally, the numbers rose to 109,747,785 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,420,609 deaths. In good news, the world’s average of new cases is down again to 379,868 per day, but mortality remains high at 11,084 new deaths per day. NVAX announced Monday that the Phase 3 trials for its own COVID vaccine are now fully subscribed. This comes as some countries are easing social distancing measures despite warnings about relaxing too early. The latest to follow this trend are Hong Kong, Netherlands, and Israel.
Overnight, the few Asian markets that were open were mostly green. Japan (+1.28%) and South Korea (+0.52%) led the way. In Europe, markets are mostly modestly green so far today. The FTSE (+0.24%), CAC (+0.05%), and DAX (+0.03%) are a typical spread with a few minor exchanges like Portugal (+1.57%) standing out. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open. All 3 major indices are implying a moderate gap higher lower of about +0.55% on average at the opening bell.
The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Daly 3 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AAP, ALLE, AN, BRKR, CVS, ECL, EXPD, JELD, LPX, TRU, USFD, VMC, and ZTS before the open. Then after the close, A, AIG, ANDE, CAR, BYD, CLR, DVN, MCY, and OXY report.
With Congress gone for the week and limited news today, it looks like the bulls are still in charge. The winter storm gripping most of the country is likely to dominate the news. Even earnings are limited today. So, over-extension seems to be the main thing that might slow the bulls stepping back in after the 3-day weekend.
Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline. So, keep locking in your profits when you have them. Stick with your plan, maintain discipline and work your process. Remember it’s Friday and we have a 3-day weekend coming. So, pay yourself and get your portfolio set for the long weekend.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DAL, HYLN, UAL, VLO, WYNN, PENN, MRVL, ALLY, SOHU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
We dedicate the entire E-learning session to reading a company balance sheet and fundamental analysis. We dig into the details and point out red flags for those wanting longer term positions.
In this E-Learning calls I talk about methods I use to hedge individual positions. I cover not only how I use options to reduce risk but also enhance profits of individual trades.
In this E-Learning session I discuss my method for hedging my entire portfolio using options. Markets don’t always go up and this method has saved my bacon many times turning an ugly correction into a profitable possibility.
Although most of the country will be dealing with cold conditions over this 3-day weekend, I would not rule out the possibility of light and choppy day as traders get way early to extend their time off. Even though indexes seemed to struggle to hold the bullish momentum, there was little to no fear that accompanied yesterday’s profit-taking. As we slide into the uncertainty of a long weekend, it would not be odd to see additional profit-taking with traders reducing risk. As long as index trends and support levels hold banking, some recent gains may be a wise move.
Asian markets we mostly closed to as they celebrate their new year. European markets trade mixed but mostly flat this morning as they react to the 9.9% economic slump reported in the U.K. U.S. futures currently suggest a slightly lower open with light earnings and economic calendars. Plan your risk carefully as we head into the weekend.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday earnings calendar, we have just about 40 companies expected to reports quarterly results. Notable reports include D, ENB, FTS, MCO, NWL, & WPC.
News & Technicals’
Although there was little increase in fear, the indexes seemed to struggle to hold on to the bullish momentum. Perhaps it was a light recognition that the Jobless claims were higher than expected but, it may have been nothing more than the 3-day weekend and traders heading out early. The White House secures a deal for more than 200 million more Covid vaccine doses as the public finds it difficult to access the shot. The United Kingdom reported that its economy contracted by 9.9% in 2020, the worst performance since the Great Frost of 1709. Yesterday the U.S. reported a deficit expectation of more than 2 Trillion dollars for 2121, not including the 1.9 Trillion stimulus or the college loan forgiveness moving through Congress. That said, Speaker Pelosi intends to include the 15 dollars per hour Federal minimum wage mandate in the stimulus package.
We have a light day on the earnings calendar with only a Consumer Sentiment report for traders to react to at 10 AM Eastern. With a 3-day weekend ahead, price action could become relatively light and choppy as traders get away early to enjoy the extra time off. Recently, something of a rare event in the current market is seeing the U.S. futures pointing to a flat to slightly lower open this morning. Perhaps a little profit-taking is possible heading into the weekend? Plan your risk carefully.
Markets basically ground sideways on Thursday. The indecisive day left us with black-bodied Doji-type candles. However, even this indecisive trading left all 3 major indices at all-time high closes after a small morning gap higher. On the day, SPY gained 0.16%, DIA gained 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.55%. The VXX lost a little over 2% to 16.28 and T2122 fell, but remains in the overbought territory at 86.76. Meanwhile, the 10-year bond yield rose to 1.165% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $58.00/barrel.
After the close, DIS crushed on earnings ($0.32 vs. loss was expected) on a major revenue beat due to streaming. MWK did the same. However, both DVA and EXPE missed on both the top and bottom lines.
Bitcoin surged to a new record high Thursday as both MA and BNY joined the move toward acceptance of cryptocurrency. MA had previously partnered with cryptocard providers, but the new announcement was that they will be supporting so-called “stablecoins” which are cryptocurrencies that peg their value to some other asset (such as the dollar). Meanwhile, BNY said it would begin holding, transferring and issuing bitcoin on behalf of institutional customers. Markets saw both announcements as more evidence of the legitimization of bitcoin.
Related to the virus itself, US infections continue to rage as the US. The totals have risen to 28,002,240 confirmed cases and 486,922 deaths. However, the number of new cases continues the recent trend of falling quickly and is back down to the pre-election level as the average new cases are now 105,798 new cases per day. Still, deaths remain stubbornly high at 2,818 per day. President Biden said Thursday that deals have been inked to provide an additional 200 million doses of the PFE and MRNA vaccines (raising the total order to 600 million doses). More importantly, he said the country was on track to have given 300 million vaccinations by the end of July. In that vein, RAD will begin administering vaccinations today.
Globally, the numbers rose to 108,380,746 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 2,380,746 deaths. In good news, the world’s average of new cases is down again to 413,916 per day, but mortality remains high at 11,873 new deaths per day. In France, the Health Minister said that between 20% and 25% of all current cases in that country are of the UK variant. In Germany, they have imposed border checks and outright border closings to prevent mutations from arriving from the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Tyrol. The UK said its economy contracted 9.9% in 2020 due to the virus and Brexit. However, there was slight hope with the Q4 seeing 1% GDP growth.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red, but many markets (and economies) are closed now for the Lunar New Year celebration. India (-1.34%) and Australia (-0.63%) led the way lower. In Europe, markets are mixed so far today. The FTSE (+0.12%) and CAC (+0.06%) are flat, but the DAX (-0.51%) is down with the rest of the continent in a similar situation. Amsterdam (+0.95%) and Denmark (+0.92%) lead gainers while Portugal (-2.46%) and Russia (-1.01%) lead the losses as of midday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a red open. All 3 major indices are implying a small gap lower of about 0.15% at the opening bell.
The major economic news for Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am) and a Feb. speaker (Williams at 10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AXL, D, FTS, HUN, LECO, MCO, and NWL before the open. There are no reports after the close.
The Impeachment Trial continues to grab headlines, but with the GOP having decided before the trial that there would be no conviction, it should wind down and possibly end today. Even earnings are limited today. So, the driver of the market today may be trader positioning in front of the 3-day weekend.
Follow the trend, respect support and resistance levels, and don’t chase the moves you missed. It’s all about achieving trade goals and sticking to your discipline. So, keep locking in your profits when you have them. Stick with your plan, maintain discipline and work your process. Remember it’s Friday and we have a 3-day weekend coming. So, pay yourself and get your portfolio set for the long weekend.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ASML, AMAT, MRVL, BYND, SOHU, CX, SPCE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
