Earnings Remain Strong and Guidance Key

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ADP July Nonfarm Employment came in far below (less than half of) expectations early Wednesday.  Still markets shrugged off the news and only gapped down fractionally.  After that initial move, trading ground sideways in the large-caps and slowly rallied in the QQQ.  The exception was a significant across-the-board selloff the last 5 minutes.  This left us with indecisive candles, a Doji on the SPY and Spinning Top type candles in the DIA and QQQ.  On the day SPY lost 0.48%, DIA lost 0.89%, and QQQ gained 0.14%. However, this left us still in the sideways consolidation in all 3 major indices.  The VXX was flat a 29.77 and T2122 fell to 32.05.  10-year bond yields remained flat at 1.174% and Oil (WTI) fell over 3.5% to $68.04/barrel.

Just before the close, Treasury Sec. Yellen said that she expects monthly inflation to be running at a level consistent with the Fed’s goal (2% per year or 0.1 – 0.2%/ month) by the end of 2021.  However, she believes annual inflation readings will remain “uncomfortably high for some time.”  She also reiterated the administration’s position that an eviction moratorium is needed because state and local governments have only managed to disperse 10% of the $47 billion in rental assistance that the Federal government has allocated.  This is due to the program being brand new and multiple levels of government being involved. 

After the close, the torrid earnings pace continued, with the only reported misses being ALB on revenue and BKNG on earnings (loss).  MET, ALL, MCK, WDC, MRO, and APA were among those reporting strong beats.  However, forward guidance continues to be potty as many companies do not believe they can continue to match Q2 performance.

In stock news early today, the strong earnings season continues.  CI, BDX, HBI, XRAY, BLL, and IRM were among those reporting beats, without a single report missing on either line so far among major companies this morning.  MRNA reported that its vaccine booster shot has produced a “robust” immune response against the Delta variant (which now makes up 95% of new cases) in Phase 2 trials. The company also beat on both lines of their earnings report.  HOOD continues to be extremely volatile in its first week of trading as the company amended its filing to say that insiders and pre-IPO investors will sell almost 98 million shares.  This comes after the price soared more than 50% on Wednesday while trading in a 60%-wide range.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side on modest moves.  Thailand (-1.18%) was the biggest mover as their currency fell.  However, outside that anomaly, Hong Kong (-0.84%) and Shenzhen (-0.79%) led the losses.  Indonesia (+0.75%) and Japan (+0.52%) paced the gainers.  In Europe, markets are mostly green on modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.25%) and DAX (+0.01%) lag, but the CAC (+0.23%) is fairly typical of the rest of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to green start to the session.  The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.22% open.  10-year bond yields are flat at 1.172% and commodities are mixed as the dollar is down slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes June Trade Balance and Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and a Fed speaker (Waller at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, WMS, AES, APTV, ARW, ATH, AAWW. BLL, BCE, BDX, BERY, BV, BEP, BLDR, CAH, CNP, CQP, LNG, CI, XEC, COMM, XRAY, DUK, EPC, EPAM, EVRG, GIL, GTN, HBI, HII, IBP, IRM, ITRI, K, MMS, MRNA, NOMD, NRG, OGE, PAE, PZZA, PH, PRTY, PENN, PPL, PRMW, PWR, REGN, REV, SRE, SRLP, TRGP, TEN, TMX, TRI, VGR, VIAC, VSAT, W, WCC, and ZTS before the open.  Then after the close, IHRT, AL, LNT, AEL, AIG, COLD, AMN, BECN, BHF, BKD, CVNA, CNDT, ED, CTVA, CVET, CWK, DBX, ENDP, EXPE, FND, FLS, G, ILMN, ITT, MTZ, MNST, MSI, NFG, NWSA, ZEUS, OTEX, CNXN, PFSI, POST, PRI, REZI, RMD, SEM, SWX, SFM, TDS, TDC, USM, VOYA, ZG, and ZNGA report.

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are likely to decide the direction of markets early today as traders look for clues to what Friday’s July Jobs data might be (or mean). Jitters over a potential “already peaked” recovery with the Fed policy change down the road has the bulls being hesitant. Yet, the bears have made no headway either as markets just consolidated for two weeks at the all-time highs. With that said, we have drifted close to the longer-term bullish trendlines in all 3 major indices. So, a decision point for the next move may be near.

Remember, trading success is about winning more than you lose by following trend and price action and then keeping your losses small while consistently taking profits when you have them. You don’t need to call the turn or have all triple-digit gain trades. So, don’t try to predict the market. Nobody ever made a consistent living calling the top (or bottom). Neither should you chase price and above all, stick to your trading rules. Discipline will see you through. Focus on the process and managing what you can control.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. Rick is out but the RWO Room is open. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wild Price Action

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Wild Price Action

The wild price action continued yesterday with a massive whipsaw the managed to squeak out the 42nd record high for the year in the SP-500.  With a massive number of earnings reports in the pipeline for the end of the week and jobs data, we should prepare for the price volatility to continue.  With the blessing of the President, the CDC added two more months to the eviction moratorium even though the courts have ruled they do not wield power to do so. So hold on tight; the wild ride is likely to continue the rest of the week.

Asian markets traded mixed but mostly higher as a private survey showed growth in Chinese service activity though there is another infection concern in the Wuhan province.  European indexes trade modestly higher this morning as they cautiously trade earnings results.  However, with an earnings deluge and a pending ADP report, U.S. futures currently trade mixed to slightly lower. Still, the truth is anything is possible by the open, so buckle up the wild ride is about to take another lap.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have a big day with nearly 290 companies reporting.  Notable reports include ETSY, ALB, ALL, ABC, APO, BKNG, BOOT, BWA, CVS, EA, ETR, EXC, FSLY, TWNK, HUBS, IAC, JACK, KHC, LMND, LL, MRO, MBI, MCK, MTOR, MET, MGM, NUS, PBR, DOC, QRVO, RYN, ROKU, RCL, RGR, TM, UBER, VMC, WDC, & WU.

News & Technicals’

Though the courts say the CDC does not have the authority, they went ahead with a new eviction ban with the blessing of the President through October 3rd.  The President said the legal challenge would allow time to distribute funds.  In other news, Biden called on Cuomo to resign after the state Attorney confirmed multiple accounts of sexual harassment.  However, Cuomo refuses to resign, so it will now be up to the state assembly to impeach or remove him from office.  Yellen to support the next multi-trillion-dollar spending plan, saying she believe its necessary to remain as the world’s pre-eminent economic power.  Hmm, piling on more debt helps us to remain a superpower?  Treasury yields rise slightly this morning, with the 10-year trading at 1.182% and the 30-year advancing to 1.854% as we wait on the private payroll number.

With a last-minute surge, the SP-500 squeaked out its 42nd new record to close another wild day of price action.  After gapping up, sellers pushed the Dow down, breaking the consolidation support only to reverse in a volatile whipsaw that not only recovered the loss but tacked on another 200 points to boot.  Such price volatility is excellent for intraday traders but very frustrating for swing and position traders who cannot matain an edge with huge price reversals of the last couple of days.  For the rest of the week, markets will have jobs data to digest, along with a deluge of earnings reports.  We begin with the ADP private payrolls number before the bell today, followed by Jobless Claims on Thursday and the Employment Situation on Friday morning.  I suspect the wild price action is likely to stay with us through the rest of the week. So fasten your seatbelt tightly and plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Nasty Whipsaw

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Nasty Whipsaw

Gapping up to kickoff the typically volatile August market, the nasty whipsaw that followed may have woke the mean monster of uncertainty. Of course, with the VIX rising and the Absolute Breadth Index falling with more than 700 earnings reports and lots of jobs data yet to digest, a little uncertainty is understandable.  Plan your risk carefully because these big price swings can chop an account to pieces as the market searches for direction from this consolidation.

Overnight Asian markets tumbled with the Chinese government saying online gaming was opium for the mind.  However, European markets sport modest gains across the board fueled by positive earnings results.  With jobs data just around the corner and a slew of earnings reports rolling out U.S. futures, attempt to reverse yesterday’s selling, pointing to a substantial bullish gap-up.  Hold on tight as the wild ride continues.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a busy day on the Tuesday earnings calendar with more than 200 companies stepping up to reports quarterly results.  Notable reports include ATVI, AKAM, BABA, AMGN, ARNC, CAR, BHC, APRN, BP, CLX, CZR, COP, DISCA, DD, ETN, EXPD, BEN, HSIC, HLF, HST, H, KTOS, LYV, LYFT, MAR, MTCH, MCHP, NKLA, PSX, RL, SEE, SEDG, SRC, SPWR, VVNT, WLTW, & UAA.

New & Technicals’

Western and China’s Henan province, which is significant transport hubs grapple with the aftermath of a devastating flood likely to trigger another shipping crisis.  Supply chain software firm E@open said there would probably be fewer smaller discounts during the peak Black Friday sales.  CNBC’s Jim Carmer says it is the height of irresponsibility to invest in Chinese stock right now and urged investors to stay away.  Europe’s recovery could be derailed due to pandemic fears.  According to reports, 40% of U.K. consumers are not comfortable taking vacations abroad or going to large public gathers such as sports or music events. The White House and the Congress are engaged in a game of hot potato over who’s responsible for allowing the federal eviction moratorium to expire after the CDC director could not find legal authority to extend.  Let the finger-pointing and blame game begin!

Yesterday’s nasty whipsaw and rising VIX likely planted some seeds of uncertainty yesterday, but once again, the overnight session has found reason to bounce.  The bearish engulfing candles left behind in the DIA, SPY, and IWM will only be valid if they follow through to the downside, and the overnight push is trying to ensure that is not going to happen.  As I mentioned yesterday, August is typically volatile but toss in supply chain challenges, fears of slowing growth, and the rising infection rates and uncertainty begins to raise its ugly head.  Markets hate uncertainty!  With possible market-moving jobs data later this week and over 700 earnings reports to digest, expect the wild price action to continue. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Consolidation Continues Amidst Earnings

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Monday was a “fade the gap” kind of day with a modest gap higher at the open met with all-day selling, closing near the lows.  The SPY printed a Bearish Engulfing candle and the DIA printed a Bear Engulfing of a Doji.  However, all 3 major indices stayed in their recent consolidation ranges.  On the day, the SPY lost 0.20%, the DIA lost 0.32%, and QQQ gained 0.01% after having gapped up a bit more than the large-cap indices.  The VXX gained almost 4% t o31.34 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 52.07.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.174% and Oil (WTI) dropped 3.45% to $71.40/barrel.

During the day there was a bit of news on the virus front.  The 7-day average of new cases in the US has reached almost 73,000 again (surpassing last summer’s peak). While hospital space is an issue in some areas (for example, only 7 available ICU beds for 3 million people in Austin TX and the state of LA report they’ve reached the highest level of hospitalization since the start of the pandemic), fortunately, death rates have not spiked with cases (7-day average is at 317/day).  The White House announced the country had reached the goal of 70% of adults being at least partially vaccinated, albeit about a month later than the goal. 

After the close, Fed (voting) member Waller told CNBC that he could see the possibility of a reduction in bond-buying activity starting as soon as October.  However, he would need to see strong jobs reports in August and September before he agreed to any such tightening.  As with other members of the FOMC, he said that the data the Fed is seeing continues to indicate that inflation is transitory, but that there is some evidence this might not be the case.

It has started off as another good day on the earnings front.  However, it is notable that there are more misses today than any day so far this earnings season.  Chief among those misses were LLY (came in short on the bottom line) and CLX (missed on both lines and guided lower as it says the pandemic surge has passed.  However, there are still plenty of beats, including COP and PSX in the oil space, UAA and RL in clothing, and DISCA in finance. In non-earnings news, PEP announced it will sell its juice brands, including Tropicana to a French private equity firm for $3.3 billion.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest moves.  Japan (-0.50%), Shanghai (-0.47%), and Shenzhen (-0.41%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, India (+1.55%), Thailand (+1.01%), and Indonesia (+0.56%) led the gainers.  However, in Europe, markets are green across this board so far today.  The FTSE (+0.30%) and DAX (+0.20%) are typical of the continent, with the CAC (+0.98%) being an outlier to the upside.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, but modestly green open.  The DIA is implying a +0.46% open, the SPY implying a +0.34% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.09% open.  10-year bond prices are also up and the dollar down in early trading Tuesday.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to June Factory Orders (10 am) and a Fed speaker (Bowman at 2 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BABA, ATI, AME, ARNC, BHC, BCC, BP, BHG, CWH, CLX, COP, CRSR, DISCA, DD, DNB, ETN, SATS, LLY, EXPD, FNMA, FIS, FCNCA, BEN, IT, HSC, HSIC, INCY, INGR, IGT, J, KKR, LHX, LCII, LGIH, LDI, LPX, MAR, NVT, OMI, PSX, PBI, PEG, RL, SEE, SUN, BLD, UAA, VNTR, WMG, WAT, WEC, WLK, WLTW, XYL, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open.  Then after the close, ATVI, AKAM, AFG, AMGN, ANDE, AIZ, CAR, CZR, CNR, CW, DK, DVN, ET, ENLC, NVST, FMC, FNF, FRG, HLF, HST, H, JAZZ, KAR, LYV, LYFT, MCY, OI, OXY, OKE, PAA, PRIM, PRU, PSA, RGA, TX, UNM, and XP report.

Jitters over the resurgence of Covid at the same time the economy may have already reached peak recovery mode and stimulus is fading has markets concerned. However, it would be quite a stretch to say we are seeing any panic. Markets seem to want to open Tuesday inside of yesterday’s candle…just in the consolidation area. So, again the trend remains bullish and all 3 major indices remain very near their all-time highs. This is letting the moving averages catch up and is a healthy thing for a trend.

Don’t get caught trying to predict the market. Nobody ever made a consistent living calling the top (or bottom). Remember, trading success is about winning more than you lose by following trend and price action and then keeping your losses small while consistently taking profits when you have them. You don’t need to call the turn or have all triple-digit gain trades. So, don’t chase price, predict turns, and above all, stick to your trading rules. Discipline will see you through. Focus on the process and managing what you can control.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TEVA, PSTG, JETS, LEVI, QID, RIOT, GLW. Rick is out but the RWO Room is open. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Resting Consolidation

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Resting Consolidation

Though we had a little pushing and shoving in the price action last week, the resting consolidation in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ was technically healthy after such a wild selloff and recovery. With three indexes within striking distance of new records, traders and investors will focus on jobs data this week, and we may experience some choppy price action as we wait. First, however, we begin the week with some key inflation data with the PMI report this morning.  With about 2/3rds of the SP-500 reporting this week, there will be a lot of data for the market digest.  So plan carefully and be ready for just about anything.

Asian markets began the month green across the board, with the SHANGHAI leading the way up 1.97% at the close.  European markets are trade mixed with modest gains and losses this morning.  As earnings roll out and facing PMI and ISM numbers, U.S. futures point to bullish open to kick off this busy week of earnings and jobs data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

To begin the first trading week in August, we have nearly 100 companies stepping up to report.  Notable reports include ALX, ANET, CVI, FANG, EMN, RACE, GAIA, GPN, GPRE, HSBC, IPI, L, MOS, NXPI, OHI, ON, OTTR, PXD, O, SPG, TTWO. TSEM, RIG, & WMB.

News & Technicals’

Federal unemployment programs that have paid jobless benefits since March 2020 end September 6th.  At this point, Congress does not appear willing to extend them again.  The U. S. Senate on Sunday finalized the text for its 2700 page $1 trillion infrastructure bill.  Treasury yields rise this morning ahead of PMI data, with the 10-year trading at 1.242% and the 30-year advancing to 1.916%.  The reopening of hospitality services using vaccine passes has drawn criticism due to the rising infection rates.  Though the steel demand is on the rise, the Chinese government is likely to lower the production in the second half of the year, dropping it below 2020 levels.

The resting consolidation over the last week in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ held above support levels, though we did have some modest pushing and shoving by the bears.  As we begin the typically choppy August, all but the IWM are within striking distance of new record highs.  However, the Friday Employment Situation number will be critical if the market is to continue its advance.  Though the premarket activity suggests a bullish open, keep a close eye on the consolidation resistance because we may experience choppy price action as we wait on all the jobs data later this week.  Stay with the bullish trend but once again avoid overtrading and remain flexible should the bears find a reason to attack.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Treasury to Conserve Cash

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Friday saw a gap down across the board for stocks.  However, the bulls stepped in and immediately began rallying.  This early rally held up in the QQQ, while the DIA faded and then all the major indices ground sideways. This left us with a black-bodied Doji in the DIA, a white Inverted Hammer in the SPY, and a nice white-bodied candle in the QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.48%, SIA lost 0.38%, and QQQ lost 0.52%.  The VXX gained 2.5% to 30.21 and T2122 fell back to mid-range at 60.69.  10-year bond yields fell to 1.224% and Oil gained a fraction to $73.76/barrel.

During the day, WMT joined the chorus of companies that will require employees to be vaccinated.  In this case, WMT mandated vaccination only for corporate office workers, regional managerial staff, and anyone who works in multiple stores.  Single location workers, such as hourly store and warehouse workers will not yet be required to comply. 

The Treasury Department announced that it will begin implementing “emergency cash conservation steps” immediately.  These efforts are needed to avoid breaking the federal borrowing limit after a two-year suspension of that limit expired Saturday.  The steps will allow Treasury to shift money in order to keep paying federal bills for two to three months.  Over that time, Congress can either suspend the limit again, drastically cut spending or decide to allow the country to default on debts.  Additional suspension is by far the most likely outcome.

The pandemic ban on evictions also ended Saturday.  Analysts expect a historic wave of evictions to be coming along with a major increase in foreclosure activity.  This will have impacts on REIT, banking, and even homebuilding industries. However, there is not a good indication as to how these impacts will be distributed amongst those industries.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly strongly green, with a couple of minor and modest exceptions.  Shenzhen (+2.24%), Shanghai (+1.97%), and Japan (+1.82%) led the gains.  However, significant gains were widespread. Europe is following Asia’s lead so far Monday.  Only Denmark is in the red, while the FTSE (+0.69%) and CAC (+0.62%) are typical of the continent.  The DAX (+0.03%) is the laggard at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open.  The DIA is implying a +0.30% open, the SPY implying a +0.41% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.41% open.  The dollar is down this morning and 10-year bond rates are up modestly as Oil is down well over one percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARCB, CAN, RACE, GPN, GPRE, HSBC, JELD, ON, and TKR before the open.  Then after the close, ACHC, AWK, ARGO, ANET, BRKR, BWXT, COLM, CLR, CVI, FANG, EMN, NSP, ITUB, KMT, LEG, MOS, NXPI, PXD, O, REYN, SBAC, SPG, SEDG, TTWO, RIG, TA, UCTT, UNVR, WMB, and WWD report.

The Senate finished the text of a bipartisan infrastructure compromise. The trillion-dollar bill will include $550 billion in new spending on roads, bridges, water distribution infrastructure, etc. This should see votes coming later week in the Senate. However, the big news of the week will be the July Jobs report and more earnings reports. The good news should be that so far earnings have been outstanding this quarter. Forward guidance and whether companies can repeat the feat in the fall is another question. Finally, Covid cases are continuing the recent increase. However, coming off very low levels means that the medical system has more capacity available and while hospitalizations are also up, outcomes are better with deaths not rising again too much at least as of yet.

As the new month begins, traders are hopeful (coming off 6 winning months). Just as I cautioned against letting down days sway you, don’t let giddy days hurt your discipline either. Trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week. Success is all about batting average and adding up those singles and doubles. So, always manage your current positions first. Don’t chase price, predict turns, and above all, stick to your trading rules. Discipline will see you through. Focus on the process and managing what you can control.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PSTG, UNG, TEVA, AAPL, MRVL, BSX, PACB. Rick is out but the RWO Room is open. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Briefly touched the sky.

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Briefly touched the sky

Shrugging off the GDP and jobless claims, miss the DIA and SPY briefly touched the sky, printing new records but was unable to hold there into the close.  Amazon reported another $100 billion quarter but missed expectations and guided lower slipping more than 200 points after the bell.  Though the futures suggest a little selling pressure, this morning, anything is possible as we digest more than 125 earnings reports and react to Employment cost and Personal income data before the open. 

Asian markets had a rough night closing in the red across the board, led by the NIKKEI falling 1.80%.  European markets are also retreating this morning, seeing red across the board as earnings roll out.  Ahead of another big day of data, the U.S. futures point to a lower open, with the NASDAQ leading the way down 1% after the AMZN miss. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the Friday earnings calendar, we finish the week with more than 125 companies reporting.  Notable reports include ABBV, BLMN, BAH, COG, CPRI, CAT, CBOE, CERN, CVX, CL, XOM, HUN, ITW, JCI, LIN, LYB, NWL, PG, QSR, VFC, WPC, GWW & WY.

News & Technicals’

Amazon gave a weaker-than-expected outlook for the third quarter.  Sales topped $100 billion for the 3rd quarter in a row but missed expectations and look to open more than 200 points lower this morning.  Tesla has agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle claims that one of the company’s updates temporarily limited maximum battery charging, paying owners $625 each.  The company also suffered a setback after a Tesla Megapack battery ignited in  Australia’s Victoria State.  The 19-member Eurozone economy grew by 2% in the three months ending in June, reporting an annual inflation projection to reach 2.2%.  Treasury yields are pulling back again this morning, with the 10-year falling to 1.247% and the 30-year dipping to 1.904% ahead of the June personal consumption index and employment cost index numbers.

Both the DIA and SPY briefly touched the sky, printing new record highs before slipping back before the close.  Though there appears to be a little selling pressure in the futures this morning, the DIA, SPY, and QQQ remain in bullish patterns.  A substantial miss on yesterdays GDP and jobless numbers topping expectations didn’t seem to bother the bulls at all as they continued to charge higher.  The China tech crackdown is also not slowing down the bullish activity, with CNBC reporting $3.6 billion flowing into the stocks in a week ending Wednesday.  The buy the dip crowd is still working hard.  The only index suffering technical damage is the IWM, still lingering below its 50-day average though well-off recent lows.  As we wind down the week, I will once again repeat; stay with the trend, avoid overtrading, and have a plan to protect your capital should the market stumble from these lofty valuations.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

AMZN Partial Miss Reinforced Econ Data

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Markets opened basically flat on Thursday before putting in a slow morning rally and a slow afternoon fade.  So, generally, it was a sideways nothing day that continued the consolidation in all 3 major indices.  All 3 indices put in upper wicks and small bodies, but you would NOT call any of them Shooting Star candles.  On the day, SPY gained 0.40%, DIA gained 0.42%, and QQQ gained 0.18%.  All 3 indices are very near all-time highs again. The VXX fell to 29.49 and T2122 rose just into the edge of the overbought territory at 81.99.  10-year bond yields rose back to 1.266% and Oil (WTI) was up 1.5% to $73.53/barrel.

During the day Q2 GDP came in far below expectation.  While we still saw 6.5% GDP growth for the quarter, analysts had estimated the growth would be 8.5%.  Weekly Jobless claims also came in a bit above expectation (400k vs. 380k est.).  Then mid-morning June Pending Home Sales shrank 2%.  However, markets shrugged off this news and traded as if everything was fine.

After hours, AMZN reported a massive beat on earnings and over $113 billion in sales for Q2, but still missed on revenue by over $2 billion.  This comes as the pandemic “stay at home shopping” boost fades.   The stock was hammered hard in post-market trading, down 6.5%.  Almost all the other after-hours earnings reports were beats on both lines.  PINS beat on both lines, but obliterated in post-market trading, down 21% as of 4:30 pm after reporting that it lost users during the quarter.

This morning the incredibly strong earnings season continued.  Almost all reports came in as beats on both lines.  The only misses reported were NWL missing on revenue and JCI barely missing (by 4/100 of a cent) on earnings.  CHTR, AON, LYB, VFC, CPRI, PG, and CVX in particular reported significant beats.  A few buyback plans, such as CVX were announced.  Another great day on reports of the quarter past.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Japan (-1.80%) and Hong Kong (-1.35%) led the region lower.  In Europe, there are a few minor exchange exceptions, but in general the continent is also in the red as of mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.82%), DAX (-0.74%), and CAC (-0.09%) are pretty typical of the spread among European bourses.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a gap lower at the open.  The DIA is implying a -0.33% open, the SPY implying a -0.66% open, and the QQQ implying a 1.04% open following the AMZN disappointment.  10-year bond yields and commodity prices are also down, perhaps unrelated to the dollar which is showing only tepid strength this morning.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  Fed member Brainard also speaks long after the close (8:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABBV, AXL, AON, AVNT, BBVA, BLMN, BAH, COG, CPRI, CRI, CAT, CERN, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, HRC, HUN, ITW, IMO, JCI, LAZ, LIN, LYB, NWL, PBR, POR, PG, QSR, TU, TIXT, VFC, GWW, and WY all before the open.  Then after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

It looks like AMZN reporting just their third-ever $100 billion quarter of revenue, but missing by over $2 billion, was the tipping point for fear. Earlier missed economic reports had not moved markets. Still, after a night of reflection, world markets are moving lower so far today. Remember that we are still very near all-time highs and the bullish trend remains in place. So, don’t get too far out on a bearish limb over a pullback. Also, keep in mind that it is Friday and month-end. So, be ready for the weekend new cycle, lightening up, evening up, and hedging as appropriate.

Don’t let a gap or loss get you down. It happens. Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week. Success is all about batting average and adding up those singles and doubles. So, manage your current positions first. Don’t chase, predict turns on one candle, and stick to your trading rules. Discipline will see you through. Focus on the process and managing what you can control. Finally, Friday is payday. So don’t forget to pay yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Tickers Today. Rick is out but the RWO Room is open. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Infrastructure Plan

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The Fed stands pat, the Senate advanced the $550 billion infrastructure plan, and Facebook posts blowout earnings but looks ahead for growth to slow. As a result, the SPY and QQQ are within striking distance of new records, and though the DIA left behind a bearish engulfing candle, the overall price pattern remains bullish.  With a huge round of earnings, GDP, and Jobless claims coming our way, there is a lot of data to digest, and the potential for volatile prices continues.  Plan your risk carefully as the bull run continues to extend.

Overnight Asian markets rebounded, led by Hong Kong, surging 3.30% after China backs off on the tech crackdown.  European market advance seeing green across the board after the Fed decision.  U.S. futures reverse overnight lows pointing to a Dow gap up more than 100 points as we wade through earnings data waiting on the GDP and claims. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have the highest number of earnings reports this week on the Thursday calendar, with more than 225 fessing up to results.  Notable reports include MO, AER, AMZN, bud, MT, AZN, CC, CNX, DECK, FSLR, GILD, HSY, HBAN, KDP, LH, LBTYA, MMP, MLM, MA, MPW, MRK, MSTR, TAP, NOK, NOC, OPK, OSTK, PINS, SPGI, SWKS, SO, STM, SU, TMUS, TWLO, X, VLO, WWW & YUM.

News & Technicals’

The Senate has advanced the $550 billion infrastructure plan targeted into transportation, utilities, and broadband.  The highly anticipated Robinhood IPO kicks off today, with some saying there’s considerable upside potential.  The FOMC moved slightly toward reversing its easy-money policies on Tuesday while keeping the interest rate near zero.  However, Jerome Powell said the committee wants to see more data and may now wait until November to begin tapering.  Facebook tops earnings expectations but warned it expects a significant growth slowdown.  Treasury yields are slightly lower this morning ahead in reaction to the Fed decision, with the 10-year falling to 1.249% and the 30-year dipping to 1.898%.

We saw some choppy price action yesterday, as the DIA, SPY, and QQQ hold very bullish price patterns.  The SPY is easily in striking distance of new record highs, and the QQQ is not far behind despite the lackluster price reactions in the big tech blowout earnings.  The DIA finished the day leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle, but that will only matter if it follows through to the downside today.  That said, Dow futures point to a gap up open of more than 100 points with the premarket pump underway. First, of course, we still have to get past a huge wave of earnings reports, the latest reading on GDP, and Jobless claims.  The GDP has the potential of coming in hot signaling inflation, and of course, jobless numbers missed last week though eventually ignored as the bulls charge forward. So expect the volatile price action to continue as the market digests all the data. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug

GDP, Jobless Claims and Earnings Galore

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Wednesday brought us a blah day with a flat open.  That led to a sideways grind as traders waited on guidance from the Fed.  However, the Fed held course and markets just kept drifting sideways into the close.  This left us with Doji-type candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a small Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA.  However, in general, you could say the consolidation just continued.  On the day the QQQ gained 0.38%, SPY lost 0.04%, and DIA lost 0.36%. The VXX fell almost 3% to 29.99 and T2122 rose but remained in the mid-range at 68.46.  10-year bond yields were flat at 1.238% and Oil (WTI) rose one percent to $&2.37/barrel as the dollar fell on the day.

As mentioned, the Fed kept its easy policy (not changing its rates or bond-buying programs). However, they did say the economy continues to improve, despite concern over the Delta variant. Some analysts say this is an admission that tightening is coming soon, but Fed Chair Powell went on to say “the Fed is nowhere near considering a rate hike” and “we see ourselves having some ground to cover to get there” in reference to tapering. In either case, markets stayed the course as that news was digested in the afternoon.

Virus impacts were the other story of the day, as both GOOG and FB said that they will require employees to be vaccinated before they return to the office.  The White House also announced that President Biden will (as had been rumored) require that federal employees be vaccinated as well.  In addition to vaccination requirements, GOOG also postponed its “return to office” deadline until at least October.  On the mask front, AAPL said it will adhere to CDC guidelines by requiring masks in many US stores, regardless of vaccination status.  These are all signs the virus may still be a threat to the economy and business performance, but markets have largely moved on for now.

After hours, the vast majority or earnings reports continued to be strong.  FB posted a 19% beat on earnings, but then warned of a significant growth slowdown.  However, it then warned of “significantly decelerating growth” over the second half of the year.  URI missed on the bottom line and PYPL missed on revenue.  The pattern is holding this morning with the vast majority of companies reporting beats on the top and bottom lines.  Many of those were strong beats of 20% or more (including VLO, which beat by 250%).  The only exceptions seems to be MRK and MLM, who both missed on earnings, as well as HLT and CTXS who both missed on revenue.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, with the lone exception of a minor loss in Malaysia (-0.16%).  Shenzhen (+3.05%) and Hong Kong (+3.30%) led the bounce back after their recent “China Regulatory Crackdown” losses, but gains were widespread with Taiwan (+1.56%), Shanghai (+1.49%), and Singapore (+1.24%) also making significant moves.  In Europe, as of mid-day markets are following Asia and leaning strongly to the green.  The FTSE (+0.90%), DAX (+0.39%), and CAC (+0.77%) are typical of the continent so far today.  As of 7:45 am, US Futures are mixed.  The DIA is implying a +0.32% open, the SPY implying a flat +0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.22% open.  The dollar is down this morning, meaning most commodities are strong and 10-year bond yields are unchanged.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and June Pending Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AER, AGCO, ACI, ADS, AB, MO, AMT, BUD, MT, ARES, AZN, BAX, BC, CARR, CBRE, CX, CTXS, CCO, CMS, CMCSA, DBD, ERJ, EME, FLEX, FTS, FCN, GTX, GVA, GPI, HSY, HLT, HBAN, ICE, IP, JHG, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LKQ, MDC, MMP, MLM, MAS, MA, MRK, TIGO, TAP, COOP, NLSN, NOK, NOC, ONEW, OSK, PATK, PBF, BTU, PCG, PPC, PRG, RLGY, RDS.A, SPGI, SAIA, SBH, SNY, SNDR, SAH, SO, STM, TROW, TMHC, TFX, TPX, TXT, VLO, VSTO, VC, WAB, WFRD, WST, WWW, XEL, and YUM all before the open.  Then after the close, AMZN, ATR, AJG, TEAM, AVTR, BZH, CC, DXCM, DLR, EIX, EW, ERIE, FSLR, FTNT, FTV, GILD, GFF, HUBG, KMPR, KLAC, LBTYA, LPLA, MATX, MTD, MHK, MRC, OPK, PINS, QGEN, RSG, SKYW, SWKS, SWN, TMUS, TXRH, TWLO, VRTX, WELL, WERN, and INT report.

Remember that we are very near all-time highs and the bullish trend remains in place. However, the week-long consolidation is still the short-term market direction, possibly indicating resistance above, but more likely just indicating a pause for bulls to gather direction. In this environment, the steady drumbeat of earnings beats, announcements of buyback programs, and rosy guidance give the bulls the decided edge, but certainly no guarantees on a very short-term basis.

Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week. It’s about batting your average and adding up those singles and doubles. So, manage your current positions first. Don’t chase, stick to your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OXY, SLV, IAG, NEM, XOP, DKNG, BAC, WFC, PSTG, DISCA, KR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service