The Fed stands pat, the Senate advanced the $550 billion infrastructure plan, and Facebook posts blowout earnings but looks ahead for growth to slow. As a result, the SPY and QQQ are within striking distance of new records, and though the DIA left behind a bearish engulfing candle, the overall price pattern remains bullish. With a huge round of earnings, GDP, and Jobless claims coming our way, there is a lot of data to digest, and the potential for volatile prices continues. Plan your risk carefully as the bull run continues to extend.
Overnight Asian markets rebounded, led by Hong Kong, surging 3.30% after China backs off on the tech crackdown. European market advance seeing green across the board after the Fed decision. U.S. futures reverse overnight lows pointing to a Dow gap up more than 100 points as we wade through earnings data waiting on the GDP and claims.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have the highest number of earnings reports this week on the Thursday calendar, with more than 225 fessing up to results. Notable reports include MO, AER, AMZN, bud, MT, AZN, CC, CNX, DECK, FSLR, GILD, HSY, HBAN, KDP, LH, LBTYA, MMP, MLM, MA, MPW, MRK, MSTR, TAP, NOK, NOC, OPK, OSTK, PINS, SPGI, SWKS, SO, STM, SU, TMUS, TWLO, X, VLO, WWW & YUM.
News & Technicals’
The Senate has advanced the $550 billion infrastructure plan targeted into transportation, utilities, and broadband. The highly anticipated Robinhood IPO kicks off today, with some saying there’s considerable upside potential. The FOMC moved slightly toward reversing its easy-money policies on Tuesday while keeping the interest rate near zero. However, Jerome Powell said the committee wants to see more data and may now wait until November to begin tapering. Facebook tops earnings expectations but warned it expects a significant growth slowdown. Treasury yields are slightly lower this morning ahead in reaction to the Fed decision, with the 10-year falling to 1.249% and the 30-year dipping to 1.898%.
We saw some choppy price action yesterday, as the DIA, SPY, and QQQ hold very bullish price patterns. The SPY is easily in striking distance of new record highs, and the QQQ is not far behind despite the lackluster price reactions in the big tech blowout earnings. The DIA finished the day leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle, but that will only matter if it follows through to the downside today. That said, Dow futures point to a gap up open of more than 100 points with the premarket pump underway. First, of course, we still have to get past a huge wave of earnings reports, the latest reading on GDP, and Jobless claims. The GDP has the potential of coming in hot signaling inflation, and of course, jobless numbers missed last week though eventually ignored as the bulls charge forward. So expect the volatile price action to continue as the market digests all the data.
Wednesday brought us a blah day with a flat open. That led to a sideways grind as traders waited on guidance from the Fed. However, the Fed held course and markets just kept drifting sideways into the close. This left us with Doji-type candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a small Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA. However, in general, you could say the consolidation just continued. On the day the QQQ gained 0.38%, SPY lost 0.04%, and DIA lost 0.36%. The VXX fell almost 3% to 29.99 and T2122 rose but remained in the mid-range at 68.46. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.238% and Oil (WTI) rose one percent to $&2.37/barrel as the dollar fell on the day.
As mentioned, the Fed kept its easy policy (not changing its rates or bond-buying programs). However, they did say the economy continues to improve, despite concern over the Delta variant. Some analysts say this is an admission that tightening is coming soon, but Fed Chair Powell went on to say “the Fed is nowhere near considering a rate hike” and “we see ourselves having some ground to cover to get there” in reference to tapering. In either case, markets stayed the course as that news was digested in the afternoon.
Virus impacts were the other story of the day, as both GOOG and FB said that they will require employees to be vaccinated before they return to the office. The White House also announced that President Biden will (as had been rumored) require that federal employees be vaccinated as well. In addition to vaccination requirements, GOOG also postponed its “return to office” deadline until at least October. On the mask front, AAPL said it will adhere to CDC guidelines by requiring masks in many US stores, regardless of vaccination status. These are all signs the virus may still be a threat to the economy and business performance, but markets have largely moved on for now.
After hours, the vast majority or earnings reports continued to be strong. FB posted a 19% beat on earnings, but then warned of a significant growth slowdown. However, it then warned of “significantly decelerating growth” over the second half of the year. URI missed on the bottom line and PYPL missed on revenue. The pattern is holding this morning with the vast majority of companies reporting beats on the top and bottom lines. Many of those were strong beats of 20% or more (including VLO, which beat by 250%). The only exceptions seems to be MRK and MLM, who both missed on earnings, as well as HLT and CTXS who both missed on revenue.
Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board, with the lone exception of a minor loss in Malaysia (-0.16%). Shenzhen (+3.05%) and Hong Kong (+3.30%) led the bounce back after their recent “China Regulatory Crackdown” losses, but gains were widespread with Taiwan (+1.56%), Shanghai (+1.49%), and Singapore (+1.24%) also making significant moves. In Europe, as of mid-day markets are following Asia and leaning strongly to the green. The FTSE (+0.90%), DAX (+0.39%), and CAC (+0.77%) are typical of the continent so far today. As of 7:45 am, US Futures are mixed. The DIA is implying a +0.32% open, the SPY implying a flat +0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.22% open. The dollar is down this morning, meaning most commodities are strong and 10-year bond yields are unchanged.
The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and June Pending Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AER, AGCO, ACI, ADS, AB, MO, AMT, BUD, MT, ARES, AZN, BAX, BC, CARR, CBRE, CX, CTXS, CCO, CMS, CMCSA, DBD, ERJ, EME, FLEX, FTS, FCN, GTX, GVA, GPI, HSY, HLT, HBAN, ICE, IP, JHG, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LKQ, MDC, MMP, MLM, MAS, MA, MRK, TIGO, TAP, COOP, NLSN, NOK, NOC, ONEW, OSK, PATK, PBF, BTU, PCG, PPC, PRG, RLGY, RDS.A, SPGI, SAIA, SBH, SNY, SNDR, SAH, SO, STM, TROW, TMHC, TFX, TPX, TXT, VLO, VSTO, VC, WAB, WFRD, WST, WWW, XEL, and YUM all before the open. Then after the close, AMZN, ATR, AJG, TEAM, AVTR, BZH, CC, DXCM, DLR, EIX, EW, ERIE, FSLR, FTNT, FTV, GILD, GFF, HUBG, KMPR, KLAC, LBTYA, LPLA, MATX, MTD, MHK, MRC, OPK, PINS, QGEN, RSG, SKYW, SWKS, SWN, TMUS, TXRH, TWLO, VRTX, WELL, WERN, and INT report.
Remember that we are very near all-time highs and the bullish trend remains in place. However, the week-long consolidation is still the short-term market direction, possibly indicating resistance above, but more likely just indicating a pause for bulls to gather direction. In this environment, the steady drumbeat of earnings beats, announcements of buyback programs, and rosy guidance give the bulls the decided edge, but certainly no guarantees on a very short-term basis.
Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week. It’s about batting your average and adding up those singles and doubles. So, manage your current positions first. Don’t chase, stick to your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OXY, SLV, IAG, NEM, XOP, DKNG, BAC, WFC, PSTG, DISCA, KR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
With yesterday’s mild selling, there was no technical damage created by the DIA, SPY, and QQQ. However, the rising VIX, weak Absolute Market Breadth Index, and the bearish engulfing candle left behind on the QQQ may perhaps warrant a little caution should it follow through to the downside today. That said, with the estimate smashing earnings from AAPL, MSFT & GOOGL, there is no reason to believe at this point that the bulls are willing to give up this tremendous bull run. So stay focused if should the market stumble and remember that anything is possible with all the data coming our way today.
Overnight Asian markets traded mixed with Hong Kong bouncing after a nasty two-day tech selloff. European market trade cautiously higher this morning reacting to earnings and waiting on the Fed decision. With a massive number of earnings events, trade data, oil supply numbers, and the FOMC this afternoon, buckle up for another hectic day of price action.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Another busy day on the Hump Day earnings calendar with nearly 200 companies listed, but there are several unconfirmed. Notable reports include FB, ALGN, ADP, BA, BMY, CN, CAJ, CRUS, CME, DB, F, GRNC, GD, GSK, HES, HUM, IRBT, LRCX, LPL, MCD, MTH, NSC, ORLY, OC, PYPL, PFE, PPC, QCOM, NOW, SHOP, SAVE, SPOT, TOM, VALE, WING, XLNX, XPO, YNDX, & YUMC.
News & Technicals’
AAPL, MSFT & GOOGL smashed earnings estimates after the bell yesterday, but the response in the stocks was relatively muted. So perhaps everyone is now in the wait-and-see mode for the FOMC decision and the Powell press conference later this afternoon. Treasury yields ticked a little higher this morning waiting on the FOMC, with the 10-year trading up to 1.254% and the 30-year advancing to 1.911%. According to reports, the Fed may begin talking about tightening their easy money policies and will also express concerns about the rapid spread of the delta variant. Kelvin Tay of UBS Global Wealth is warning this morning about bottom-fishing Chinese tech stocks. He says Chinese markets could see further losses from here, with funds likely swaying toward the liquidation side.
Though we saw some selling pressure yesterday, the DIA, SPY, and QQQ suffered no technical damage. However, with the QQQ leaving behind a bearish engulfing candle, it may be wise to exercise little caution should that happen to follow-through this morning. As the bulls worked to shrug off the substantial, durable goods miss, it’s interesting to note that the VIX closed the day higher. Also noteworthy is a rotation into consumer staples seems to be underway. With another massive day of earnings data and the FOMC decision this afternoon, anything is possible. So stay flexible and focused because of all this emotion and create some swift and challenging price action. That may be good for experienced day traders but can prove highly frustrating for swing traders as price wildly whips.
Tuesday saw markets gap down at the open and then follow through as traders took profits in front of the after-hours big tech reports to come. However, the bulls could not be kept down all day as they came back in the last couple of hours of the day. This led us to close well up off the lows, creating Hammer-type candles in the large caps with the DIA even closing as a white body hammer. Still, on the day SPY closed down 0.46%, DIA down 0.22%, and QQQ down 1.09%. The VXX gained 3.4% to 30.86 and T2122 remains in mid-range at 53.33. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.238% and Oil (WTI) was down a fraction to $71.78/barrel. Most other commodities were down as well, even as the dollar was lower on the day.
During the day, the virus made more headlines as Delta variant infections are spiking, although thankfully without a corresponding spike in deaths. The CDC reported that the new studies indicate that previous infected/recovered or vaccinated people can spread the Delta variant. As a result, they are now calling for people to again wear masks indoors, regardless of vaccination status in areas where the infection rate is up (essentially the entire South of the country). Bloomberg also reported several instances of major employers telling employees to “get vaccinated or get a new job.” This comes as the White House reported it is considering a vaccination mandate for Federal employees.
After hours, AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG all reported massive beats on both lines. AAPL reported the iPhone sales increased 50% year-over-year and GOOG gave us a 41% beat on earnings as examples. Beyond those “big 3,” the rest of the after-close reports also all came in positive. There was not a single miss on earnings among the 20 majors reporting, with only 2 missing on revenue. So, the strong earnings story continues, although it is not the earnings, but the reaction that matters. That being the case, all the major tech names and futures fell on the reports.
So far this morning, the strong earnings season continues. Every report includes a beat on earnings and only GD has missed on revenue. MCD, BA, PFE, BMY, HUM, TMO, and others all reported very strong quarters, in most cases handily beating the expectations of analysts. In other morning news, mortgage rates dropped to a 6-month low of 3.01%. This caused refinance home loans to jump 9% week-over-week. However, new home loan applications fell 2% for the week.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly lower on the day. Hong Kong (+1.54%) led the comeback after successive days of beatings. On the other hand, Japan (-1.39%) paced the losses after acting as a safe haven the prior couple of days. In Europe, stocks are mostly green with only Greece and Norway bucking the trend. The FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.20%), and CAC (+0.69%) were fairly typical of the modestly green trading at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed and modest open. The DIA is implying a -0.14% open, the SPY implying a +0.07% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.28% open. The dollar is up so far this morning and so are 10-year bond yields, now at 1.261%.
The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes June Trade Balance and June Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Rate Decision and Fed Statement (both at 2 pm), and Fed Chair Press Conf. (2:30 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AMG, APH, ADP, AVY, BA, BMY, BG, GIB, CME, CSTM, EXP, EEFT, EVR, FMX, GRMN, GNRC, GD, GSK, HES, HUM, LFUS, MHO, MCD, MCO, NSC, ODFL, OC, PAG, PFE, ROL, R, SC, SHOP, SLGN, SPOT, SCL, TEL, TDY, TEVA, TMO, TNL, UMC, VRT, and WNC all before the open. Then after the close, ACCO, AFL, AEM, ALGN, ALGT, ATUS, NLY, AR, ASGN, AVB, BHE, CP, CG, CHDN, CMPR, CINF, CNO, CTSH, FIX, CYH, ECHO, ESI, ENSG, EQT, EQIX, RE, FB, F, FBHS, GFL, HIG, HOLX, IR, INVH, KGC, KL, LRCX, MTH, MEOH, MAA, MKSI, MOH, MUSA, MYRG, ORLY, OII, PYPL, PTC, QCOM, RJF, RBC, SIGI, SCI, NOW, SAVE, SSNC, SU, TTEK, TROX, TTMI, URI, WH, XPO, and YUMC report.
With the Fed announcements and the presser coming this afternoon, we are likely to see a wait-and-see game most of the morning. Still, earnings continue to be red hot. In fact, they are so hot that Mr. Market is feeling like the companies may not be able to repeat the performance next quarter, despite raised guidance in most cases. This is the likely cause, at least in part, of the selloffs on the great news.
Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading pre-Fed is like trading through earnings. It tends to be more of a bet as volatility around the Fed meetings is higher and often comes in multiple moves. This is especially true when there is no heavy consensus on what kind of language change might be coming (as today).
If you are taking positions today, be nimble or hedged. So, be sure to manage your current positions first. Don’t chase, stick to your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week. It’s about batting your average and adding up those singles and doubles.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BTBT, REI, BCRX, UAL, XLI, FAS, KR, XHB. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After setting more records in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ, the China tech crackdown is muting the wildly bullish anticipation of tech giant earnings reports after the bell today. With MSFT, AAPL, and GOOGL priced at or near all-time-highs and P/E ratios well above historical averages, there is a lot a stake. As a result, plan for a substantial gap on Wednesday morning followed by an FOMC decision. Of course, anything is possible so, prepare for a wild ride the next few days.
Asian markets traded mixed overnight, with the HIS plunging 4.22% as China puts pressure on tech stocks. European markets trade with modest declines across the board as they monitor earnings and possible infection rate impacts. Ahead of Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, and a slew of potential market-moving earnings reports, futures are point to a mixed open but well off of overnight lows. Expect considerable price volatility as the market digests all the data.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Today is big of earnings with a significant focus on the tech giants after the bell. We have more than 100 companies listed on the calendar expected to report quarterly results. Notable reports include GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, MMM, AMD, ADM, BSX, BYD, CHRW, CAKE, GLW, RDY, ENPH, FISV, GE, JBLU, JNPR, MAT, MDLZ, MSCI, PACR, PHM, ROK, SHW, SIRI, SWK, SBUX, UPS, V, WM, & XRX.
News & Technicals’
The China tech crackdown triggered a plunge in Hong Kong, with the HSI falling 4.22%. According to Scott Kennedy, high-level meetings between the U.S. China concluded with deteriorating relations setting unreachable demands for each other. So I guess it’s also no big surprise that China has not lived up to the phase one trade agreement with the United States. Today begins the FOMC two-day meeting with the announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM eastern followed by the chairman’s press conference at 2:30. Treasury yields are falling slightly this morning, with the 10-year dipping to 1.249% and the 30-year slipping to 1.907% ahead of auctions for 20 billion in 42-day bills and 61 billion of 5-year notes. Shipping is once again experiencing massive disruptions due to floods in China and Europe, straining global supply chains.
Though one would think all the issues listed above would slow the bull run, buyers continued to snap up stocks producing new records in the DIA, SPY, and QQQ yesterday. In addition, there is palpable anticipation for the after the bell reports from GOOGL, MSFT, and AAPL, with all of them at or near record highs. With P/E ratios already well above historical averages, the market has priced in an expectation of perfection. With these reports coming after the bell today, be prepared for a substantial market gap tomorrow morning. Your guess is as good as mine in which direction! Adding in Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence economic reports to the slew of earnings, the price action of the next couple of days are likely to challenge even the most experienced traders. Buckle up.
On Monday, markets made a very slight gap lower a the open. However, the bulls took over for the day, thumbing their nose at the Asian markets and driving to new all-time highs. The large caps put in nice Marubozu-type candles, while the QQQ printed a more “large body Spinning Top” type of candle. As mentioned, the 5th consecutive up day ended in new all-time high closes for all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.24%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.08%. The VXX fell 1.5% to 29.87 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 57.26. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.293% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $72.16/barrel.
After the close, TSLA reported a massive beat with 50% higher earnings and almost $700 million more in revenue for the quarter than analysts had expected. The $1.14 billion ins net income was up ten-fold from one year prior and this was the first time the company exceeded $1 billion net income for any quarter. UHS was another notable beat last night. The healthcare company reported 40% more earnings than expected on 10% more revenue than expected. However, it should be noted that all the major earnings were beats Monday evening.
In other stock news, AAL warned about fuel shortages last evening. The company said it is one of several airlines facing delays in fuel supply due to a lack of truck drivers. DAL acknowledged some such fuel-related delays in smaller Western airports, but LUV claimed it has not seen any such delays yet. AAL told CNBC that it expects such delays to continue through August as peak vacation travel takes place. The company spokesman said that pilots had been asked to conserve fuel although it did not say what impact conservation might have on “flight on time” metrics.
Once again, earnings seem to be extremely good this morning. Every major reporting stock put in beats, with the lone exceptions on PHM, which missed on both lines. UPS beat on both lines as did GE, MMM, RTX, BSX, WM, ROK, SWK, etc. ADM reported huge beats on both lines. So, it appears inflation is not impacting earnings, perhaps with the exception of homebuilders who had not hedged and bought too much lumber at the top of the recent commodity highs.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red again as the Chinese markets continue to be routed as investors fear a mass exodus of Western capitol. Hong Kong (-4.22%), Shenzhen (-3.67%), and Shanghai (-2.49%) led the region lower. Japan (+0.49%) on Olympics euphoria and Australia (+0.50%) were the only appreciable gainers. In Europe, markets are red across the board with the lone exception of a flat Russia. The FTSE (-0.28%), DAX (-0.33%), and CAC (-0.12%) are typical of the region at mid-day. However, Portugal (-1.33%) is leading the way lower. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed, mostly flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.19% open, the SPY implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.09% open at this hour.
The only major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday are June Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). However, it is another heavy earnings day, with a slew of major tech companies reporting after the close. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include MMM, AN, ADM, ABG, BSX, CNC, CIT, GLW, CEQP, DTE, ECL, ENTG, FSV, FISV, GE, GPK, HUBB, IVZ, IQV, JBLU, LW, LECO, MLCO, MSCI, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, RTX, ROK, ST, SHW, SIRI, SWK, TECK, TRU, UPS, WM, and XRX. Then after the close, AMD, GOOGL, AAPL, ASH, AXS, BXP, BYD, CHRW, CAKE, CHE, CB, CSGP, EHC, WIRE, EQR, GOOG, THG, IEX, JBT, JNPR, LBRT, MAT, MXIM, MSFT, MDLZ, NBR, NLOK, OLN, OVV, PFG, SBUX, SYK, TDOC, TER, and V reports.
With so much of the market-leading tech sector reporting after the close, the Fed statement coming Wednesday, and with markets at all-time highs; logic would call for a pullback or pause. However, the bulls have been ignoring logic and continuing to push this last week. So, do not count on a rational market. The economy continues to be strong and companies have so far been able to pass along inflation (or at least found ways to offset it to improve earnings). That said, don’t be caught off guard by a calm day in front of big tech and the Fed.
If you are taking positions today, be nimble or hedged. It’s not known how Mr. Market will react to even the hint of bad news from tech leadership or some non-dovish hint from the Fed. So, manage your current positions first. Don’t chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you can control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, or one week.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GE, JYNT, TSLA, NTNX, AA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
After an extraordinary bullish rally that shrugged off jobs and rising infection rates, futures suggest a little profit-taking this morning. While setting new record highs, the market suffered from low volume, and VIX could not fall below support, closing above 17 handles. That said, we have a big week of tech earnings, and with the strong bullish in the sector, more records highs are certainly possible. So expect wild price volatility with large morning pops or drops because the tech giants report after the bell.
Overnight Asian markets traded mostly lower as the Chinese tech crackdown weighed on stocks. This morning, European markets trade in the red, worried about the rising infection rates amid solid earnings results. Ahead of New Home Sales and earnings, U.S. futures point to a lower open as we wait on big tech and an FOMC decision.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have more than 70 companies listed on the earnings calendar to kick off a week of big tech market-moving events. Notable reports include TSLA, AMKR, CDNS, CJKP, FFIV, HAS, LII, LMT, PKG, PETS, PCH, RRC, SBFG, & TTM.
The bulls kept their foot on the gas Friday with a half percent gap higher and then follow-through all morning. The afternoon turned into a sideways grind, but the SPY and QQQ closed very near the highs and the DIA ended up as a white-bodied Spinning Top candle. On the day, SPY gained 1.03% (new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.66% (new all-time high close), and QQQ gained 1.17% (new all-time high close). The VXX fell half of a percent to 30.33 and T2122 rose back to near the overbought territory at 76.24. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.281% and Oil (WTI) rose a third of a percent to $72.17.
GM filed a lawsuit against F on Saturday. The suit was filed on behalf of GM’s “Cruise” driverless taxi subsidiary and is intended to block F from using the name “BlueCruise” for their “hands-free driving technology.” In other stock news, PM told the British press that it plans to stop selling cigarettes in the UK within 10 years as the company attempts to pivot its business. This falls in line with the company’s recent acquisitions in the Pharma space.
A US-Chinese meeting ended in a tense manner early today. The Chinese characterize the relationship as “now at a stalemate and facing serious difficulties.” As a backdrop, the Biden Administration has taken steps against US companies doing business in the Chinese province where it is alleged that an entire minority population of Uighurs are being and otherwise abused. At the same time, China has cracked down on Chinese businesses that have been listed in US capital markets. Apparently, the Chinese submitted 2 lists (one of “errors” that must be corrected immediately and one of the issues Beijing sees as very important) and the Americans “raised concerns” as well. This shifting and tense relationship is taking shape in the new “near-peer” world as China ascends on the back of decades of strong economic growth.
As we start the week, here are some of the major data points that will drop. Tuesday, we see June Durable Goods Orders and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence. Then on Wednesday we get June Trade Balance, June Retail Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories and crucially the Fed decisions, statement and presser. On Thursday we see Q2 GDP, Jobless Claims, and June Pending Home Sales. Finally, Friday brings the PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Costs, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly down, especially the Chinese exchanges. This came amidst a Chinese crackdown on Hong Kong-listed and US-listed companies including in the paid education, eCommerce, and social media spaces. Hong Kong (-4.13%), Shenzhen (-2.65%), and Shanghai (-2.34%) paced the losses. Japan (+1.04%) was the lone gainer. In Europe, markets are a little more reticent but are mostly lower in modest trading so far today. The FTSE (-0.24%), DAX (-0.43%), and CAC (-0.29%) are typical, but there are half a dozen modestly green exchanges across the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mildly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.36% open, the SPY is implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.11% open.
The only major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is June New Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CHKP, HAS, LII, LMT, OTIS, PETS, and RPM before the open. Then after the close, AMP, AMKR, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CLS, CR, FFIV, LOGI, PKG, RRC, TSLA, TFII, TBI, and UHS reports.
Despite the tense atmosphere between China and the US, there was little headline news to move markets. That said, stocks that do large parts of their business in China or that are Chinese and listed here are at risk today. With that said, earnings continue to be very strong, and most eyes will be watching the Fed tea leaves for later this week. Also bear in mind that we sit at all-time highs, coming off a strong 4-day run to end last week. So, a little pause or pullback is due soon.
Manage your current positions first and take your time early. Do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and managing what you can control. Limiting your losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Remember, trading success is not made in one trade, one day, one week, or one month.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SOS, JYNT, LCI, DHI, FSR, ARKK, BMBL, CVS, FLGT, TLIS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Futures point to another gap up bullish open as the Tokyo Olympics begin under a state of emergency. Infection rates topped 56,000 here in the U.S. yesterday, with the 3rd straight day over 50K. However, though there has been a noticeable decline in volume, the bulls appear undeterred with new record levels within striking distance. If we have the ability to ignore inflationary pressures and rising jobless claims, don’t bother us with all those delta variant stories we have stocks to buy! Stay with the trend but stay focused as we approach overhead resistance just in case the bulls run stumbles.
Asian markets traded mixed overnight, with tech falling due to China’s regulatory fear. European markets advance this morning, keying off earnings results. Though we struggled to gain traction during the day yesterday, the overnight futures are once again pushing for a bullish gap up open to close out this volatile week of price action.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a little slower day on the Friday earnings calendar with 41 companies listed, but a large number of them are unconfirmed. Notable reports include AXP, HON, KMB, NEE, RF, & SLB.
News & Technicals’
The Tokyo Olympics kick off today under a state of emergency, with spectators banded, resignations from sexist remarks, and a bear near a stadium used for matches. Here in the U.S., the new infections topped 56,000 yesterday, with three days in a row over 50k. According to the CDC, they are considering masking requirements but say at this point, those vaccinated are okay without masks. They went on to say the delta variant is one of the most infectious respiratory diseases seen by experts. In its annual report, the IMF said the Fed must carefully communicate its thinking of the eventual withdrawal of the easy monetary policies. They raised concerns that higher U.S. interest rates will drain capital flows from emerging markets at a critical time. Hmmm, why is IMF worried about interest rates when our Fed says inflation is transitory?
Another bullish day as indexes rallies back toward resistance highs with possible new records just around the corner. Unfortunately, as indexes stretch up, there has been a noticeable decline in volume, and the Absolute Breadth Index continues to show a struggle with momentum. In just three trading days, the Dow up more than 1000 points from the Monday low, increasing the danger if the market should stumble. Inflationary pressures, increasing jobless numbers, and the rapidly rising infection rates are just a few of the possible stumbling blocks placed in the path of this bull run. Stay with the trend but remain focused to avoid complacency. This morning the 10-year Treasury ticked up to 1.281%, and the 30-year rose to 1.917% ahead of PMI.
Thursday was another win for the bulls as we saw a small gap higher in the SPY and QQQ followed by the bulls controlling action. Large-cap indices were more undecided, both closing as Doji-type candles, but the QQQ was strong closing as a Marubozu (shaved head) candle at a new all-time high close. On the day, QQQ gained 0.66%, SPY gained 0.23%, and DIA gained 0.08%. The VXX rose slightly to 30.47 and T2122 fell back to the mid-range at 56.60. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.263% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 2% to $71.69/barrel.
During the day, major Internet outages (caused by AKAM equipment running in the AMZN AWS services) took many brokers and major business websites offline for over an hour. Interestingly, it was the big tech names, led by AMZN, that buoyed markets all day long. This was the third major Internet outage in the last few months.
After the close, INTC, TWTR, COFO, CE, and RHI all posted beats on both lines. VRSN beat on revenue but missed on earnings. And FE beat on earnings but missed on revenue. Overall, another very strong day of earnings reports. However, INTC also guided much lower for Q3 (forecasting 55% margins vs. 59.2% in Q2), citing supply constraints.
So far this morning, AXP, HON, RF, ROP, and SLB all reported beats on both lines. NEE beat on earnings but came up just short on revenue. However, KMB stood out as missing estimates on both lines. The bottom line is that earnings remain very strong this quarter. Despite all the talk of inflation, strong profit margins indicate that most of the major companies retain are able to pass along more than the cost increases they are experiencing.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. China paced the losses with Shenzhen down 1.53% and Hong Kong down 1.45%. Gains were modest with Japan (+0.58%) leading the way. In Europe, Markets are green across the board with the lone exception of Russia (-0.29%). The FTSE (+0.74%), DAX (+0.86%), and CAC (+0.95%) are typical for the continent, but a few of the smaller exchanges show gains over 1%. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.48% open, the SPY implying a +0.42% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.39% open. The dollar is up this morning while 10-year bond yields are unchanged and commodities are generally lower early.
The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AIMC, AXP, GNTX, HON, KMB, NEE, RF. ROP, and SLB before the open. Then after the close, there are no scheduled reports.
Even with a brutal day to start the week, the bulls have clearly been in charge for the rest of the week. And it looks like we’ll see yet another green gap at the open today. So the momentum remains to the upside. However, we seem to be feeling undecided at least in the large-caps as the tech-led, lockdown-type market conditions are back in force. Be wary of “gap and fade” volatility. We are at or near all-time highs and there should be no hurry to chase the gap.
Manage your current positions first and take your time early. The first few minutes of the day is very likely not the key to your success, but it is the time of maximum volatility as overnight orders clear and the big boys start putting down their real bets. So, do not chase, stick with your trading rules, and maintain discipline. Success comes from your consistency. This means focusing on the process and repeatedly taking those singles and doubles. Limiting losses and taking profits when we get them is the key. Also, remember this is Friday. Don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the 2-day new cycle when markets are closed.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TBIO, VLRS, AAP, BRKR, LSI, EW, SPLK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
