Ida and Delta Now, Aug Payrolls Ahead

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Markets opened slightly higher Friday and started to drift higher.  However, Fed Chair Powell’s speech was met with joy and a strong rally between 10 and 10:30 am, before drifting slowly higher until the last 15 minutes of the day.  This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that closed near the highs.  On the day, SPY gained 0.89% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.97% (to a new all-time high close).  The VXX fell over 5% to 25.85 and T2122 jumped deep into the overbought territory at 91.51.  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.305% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $68.68/ barrel.

Hurricane Ida came ashore early Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane.  It made landfall West of New Orleans.  Prior to the landfall, Ida had shut down 91% of Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.  Having reached the US, Ida will now shut down a sizeable chunk of US oil refining and chemical production that follows the Mississippi River to the North and extends West to the Texas state line (Chemical Alley). However, the Oil production, refining, and chemical processing plants should be largely back online within days, pending local damage and power outages.

In chip shortage news, TSM has announced they will be increasing the price of their products by 10-20% depending on the wafer generation as of the end of this year.  Computers will see the lower end of the price rise, but low-end electronics (like cars) will see the high end of the increases. There is very little doubt that Intel, Global Foundries (recently filed to go public), QCOM, AVGO, and others will follow suit.  The underlying reasons are the huge investments being made into additional production capacity, modest input cost increases, and most importantly the tremendous pricing power the industry has had amidst skyrocketing demand over the last 18 months. This is likely to lead to rising prices on every product that contains electronics.

In other virus-related news, new US infections continue to rise.  However, analysts continue to predict we may have reached the peak of this surge.  The totals rose to 39,665,515 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 654,689. The averages are now at 156,819 new cases and 993 new deaths per day.  Amidst that backdrop, Israel (at an all-time high peak in new cases), which tends to front-run US trends, has now approved and is pushing booster vaccinations in an effort to forestall another national shutdown.  Along those lines, over the weekend both Dr. Fauci (NIH) and the White House gave support to the idea of boosters for all American citizens while continuing to push for vaccinations of any kind.  (Only 53% of US Adults are fully vaccinated.)

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board.  Only Shenzhen (-0.09%) showed any red at all.  Meanwhile, Indonesia (+1.71%), India (+1.35%), and Taiwan (+1.08%) led the gainers.  In Europe, markets are a bit more mixed, but still lean to the green side on modest moves.  The FTSE (+0.32%), DAX (+0.22%), and CAC (+0.18%) are typical of the gainers with outliers like Greece (+1.16%) and Norway (-0.29%) at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open.  The DIA is implying a+0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.13% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to July Pending Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CTLT, LI, and VEON before the open.  Then after the close, NDSN, STNE, and ZM report.

With Jackson Hole behind us, markets are likely to look toward the data dumps later in the week (and especially the August Payrolls Report on Friday). It is possible volatility picks up here, but most of all, remember that we are sitting at all-time highs coming into a month’s end. (Granted it is not a quarter-end, but still more funds will be reporting the period’s results than say a given week. And that can lead to some profit-taking and Window Dressing prior to Wednesday.

Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Also, remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. Simply put, the market maintains trend far more often than it reverses trends. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WKHS, NKLA, F, KRE, BB, BFLY, RIDE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Taper Talk Woke up the Bears

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Taper Talk Woke up the Bears

Taper talk woke up the bears hearing the intentions of Fed committee members at the virtual Jackson Hole symposium.  Today we will hear from Chairman Jerome Powell, and he has a very daunting task to accomplish.  Will his words calm market fears as he tries to walk back the easy money policies, or will he inspire the bears? Unfortunately, the market has become addicted to easy money, so Powell is between a rock and hard.  I would not want to be in his shoes!

Asian markets traded mixed overnight in a choppy session ending with modest gains and losses.  European markets trade mixed in subdued price action as they wait for the Fed Chair speech.   As usual, the U.S. futures are pumping higher in the premaket seeing green across the board ahead of the economic data.  The stage is set for wild price action, so buckle up the ride is about to begin.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have a light day on the Friday earnings Calendar with 24 companies, but a large majority are small-cap unconfirmed reports.  Notable reports include BIG & HIBB. 

News & Technicals’

The hot GDP and the rising jobless numbers didn’t slow down those ravenous bulls in early trading, but Fed committee members’ taper talk woke up the bears.  The terrorist attack on the Afghanistan airport killing Americans also dampened the bullish mood.  Unfortunately, the U.S. and its allies warn that more terrorist attacks are likely as the president’s self-imposed deadline quickly approaches.  The Supreme Court agreed with the lower court blocking the administration’s eviction moratorium reaffirming that the CDC does not have the power to make such decisions.  They said the nation’s landlords have been losing as much as $19 Billion a month.  California, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, and Washington have state-imposed eviction moratoriums not affected by this decision. 

Yesterday’s selling adds a bit more complication to the index charts.  The DIA now could have a lower high but will need follow-through selling to confirm. In addition, the IWM has again failed at its 50-day average, suggesting the bearishness in this index may continue.  However, the SPY and QQQ suffered no technical damage in yesterday’s selling, with the tech giants holding firm and even rising in some cases.  Before the open today, we will get the latest reading on international trade and personal incomes, but all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he tries to thread the needle.  Can his words keep the market afloat as they try to walk back the easy money policies that the market has become so addicted?  We will find out soon, so buckle up it could be a wild price action Friday!

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Fed Chair Powell’s Speech Tops Agenda

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Markets opened flat on Thursday and sold off in a couple of waves during the day as Fed members spoke to close on the lows.  While the move was larger than the previous 3 days of the week, the move was about the same size as every move last week.  So, it was by no means a selloff.  This action left us with a Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA (which failed the 8ema, but just black-body candles that did not even test the 8ema in the SPY and QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.58%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.64%.  The VXX rose 4% to 27.25 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 40.16.  10-year bond yields gained slightly to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) fell three-quarters of a percent to $67.85/barrel.

After the close Thursday, WDAY, MRVL, and GPS beat on both lines.  HPQ missed on revenue, but beat on earnings.  PTON beat on revenue and missed very significantly on earnings (-$1.05/share vs. -$0.44/share estimated).  PTON also announced they will be slashing the price of their less expensive bike by hundreds of dollars starting immediately.  (The Bike+ debuted at $2,495 was reduced twice to $1,895 and will now sell for $1,495.)   In legal news, GILD won an appeal on the $1.2 billion judgment BMY had won related to a cancer treatment that encourages the patient’s own immune system to fight the disease. The judge said the original ruling was not based on substantial evidence.

The big news on the day is expected to be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.  Markets (and especially media analysts) are expecting to get strong guidance from Powell on when and how the FOMC will begin to taper bond-buying.  However, there is a major risk of disappointment in the speech with uncertainty over the current and future effect of the Delta variant on one side and a seemingly surging economy on the other. 

As an example of Powell’s problem, just yesterday the Q2 GDP we revised upward a tenth of a percent to 6.6%, jobless claims came in holding at pandemic era lows, and two Fed members told the press they were worried about inflation.  However, the US also reported 170,000 new covid cases, almost 12,000 new hospitalizations, and 1,215 deaths. More companies also announced pushing back the “return to the office” and that they are requiring employees to be vaccinated.  So, the market wants concrete direction, but Powell needs to say we will taper, without locking himself into hard timelines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the green side on modest moves.  Taiwan (+0.84%), Shanghai (+0.59%), and Thailand (+0.58%) led the gainers.  Singapore (-0.92%), Japan (-0.36%) and Indonesia (-0.28%) paced the losses.  In Europe, markets are mixed and flat but lean slightly to the downside ahead of the headliner speeches at Jackson Hole.  The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.11%) are typical of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly green open ahead of data and the Fed Chair Speech.  The DIA is implying a +0.24% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.34% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes July PCE, Jul Trade Balance, July Personal Spending, and July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium resumes at 9 am and Fed Chair Powell does his presentation at 10 am.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to BIG before the open.  There are no earnings reports scheduled after the close.

With Powell’s speech beginning at 10 am, I expect very light action early (unless Powell’s speech gets leaked early). With that said, I also expect considerable volatility when the speech sinks in. If you are not already hedged or lighter in your positions, it is probably time to be very nimble. Trade carefully and remember this is Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle.

Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you cannot control. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. And if you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, BTBT, CARR, BB, BTU, EBAY, WKHS, GSMG, NURO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Taper or no Taper

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Taper or no Taper

This morning we have to deal with GDP and Jobless Claims, and then the big question for the market to ponder is Taper or no taper.  Jerome Powell will speak at 10 AM Eastern, attempting to build the narrative to appease the market on easy money policies and inflation.  That will be a difficult needle to thread, considering the market’s addiction to freshly printed money.  After the reporting, a -0.1 durable goods, the bulls continued to buy, pushing the SPY and QQQ to their 3rd record high this week.  Lately, both good and bad news has inspired the bulls to buy.  So perhaps none of this matters, but be prepared for price volatility as the market reacts.  

Asian markets closed the day mostly lower as South Korea hikes interest rates.  Across the pond, European markets see red across the board as global sentiment worries grow.  That said, the U.S. seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach with a mixed bag hovering near the flatline. So let’s get ready to rumble!

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have our biggest day of the week on the Thursday earnings calendar, with 56 companies listed with several unconfirmed reports.  Notable reports include DG, ANF, BBW, BURL, COTY, DELL, DLTR, FRO, GPS, HAIN, HPQ, SJM, MRVL, QLLI, PTON, SAFM, TITN, VMW, WDAY, & XPEV.

Jobless Claims, GDP, and Jackson Hole

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Markets opened just on the green side of flat Wednesday.  That was followed by a long drift sideways with a slight bullish lean for the rest of the day.  This left us with Spinning Top or Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY gained 0.21% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.13%, and QQQ gained 0.11% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX fell 2.28% to 26.10 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 82.05.  10-year bond yields spiked to 1.344% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.14% to $68.31/barrel.

During the day, WDC spiked higher on reports of a big tech merger.  The Wall Street Journal reported that WDC is close to a deal with Japanese memory maker Kioxia (a one-time spin-off from Toshiba). This reaction is quite odd, in that WDC would be the purchasing company and yet was up over 15% at one point in the day (before closing up 7.8%).  This comes after a proposed Kioxia buyout by MU fell through last month.  The WDC deal will reportedly value Kioxia at $20 billion and will be paid for in WDC stock.  Kioxia is the inventor of NAND flash memory technology widely used in most computer memory and solid-state storage. 

After the close, the White House held a cybersecurity summit, aimed at preventing hacks and ransomware attacks such as the Colonial Pipeline incident, came to an end. GOOG announced they will spend $10 billion over 5 years to strengthen their security and pledged to train 100,000 IT people on security best practices.  Not to be outdone, MSFT said they will spend $20 billion over 5 years to deliver more advanced security tools (software) and pledged to spend $150 million to help government agencies upgrade security.  IBM pledged to train 150,000 people in cybersecurity skills over 3 years and announced a data storage infrastructure solution that is more secure than current architectures.  AMZN said it is planning to give users of its cloud services free multi-factor authentication devices.  Many other firms gave non-specific support to security and the attendees agreed to create a new industry standard for security.

In miscellaneous stock news, one day after PFE received approval, MRNA has now filed with the FDA requesting its Covid-19 vaccine get full approval (versus the current “Emergency Use” approval). Elsewhere, the CEO of TOL told CNBC that recent lumber price declines will save the company $40,000 per house and help offset other inflation pressures in the second half of the year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red as South Korea hiked interest rates.  Shenzhen (-1.92%), Shanghai (-1.09%), and Hong Kong (-1.08%) led to the downside.  Most of the green was barely green, with the notable exception of Malaysia (+1.02%).  In Europe, stocks are showing modest red moves everywhere except for 2 minor exchanges.  The FTSE (-0.35%), DAX (-0.63%), and CAC (-0.29%) are typical of the continent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, but red open.  The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.17% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields and the Dollar are also flat, but Oil is down nine-tenths of a percent to $67.73 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The Jackson Hole Symposium also begins at 9 am.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FLWS, ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, SJM, MOMO, SAFM, XPEV, and YSG before the open.  Then after the close, DELL, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, PTON, VMW, and WDAY report.

As Jackson Hole gets underway, markets are likely to watch and wait until they get a better read on what the Fed will do and when. So, it is quite possible we are going to stay in “pause mode” at least until Fed Chair Powell’s presentation. At that point, we may see Mr. Market make a decision (and move). However, volatility around each of the many presentations is possible. So, this would be a great time to be nimble, hedged, or with plenty of dry powder (cash).

Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you cannot control. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. And if you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, CUBI, CG, FAST, NAVI, TSCO, RCL, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Durable Goods

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Durable Goods

After a low volume, choppy record-setting day, all eyes are on the Durable goods figures just around the corner.  Consensus suggests a decline to a -0.2 reading according to the Econoday analysts.  With consumer confidence dropping to 2011 low and the unemployment bonuses expiring on September 6thth investors hope the numbers can support the current prices.  What happens is anyone’s guess, and then we will quickly turn our attention to Jackson Hole and thoughts of tapering.  Be prepared as price volatility is likely.

Asian markets closed the day mixed in a choppy session as Chines tech stocks retrace recent gains.  This morning, European markets trade with modest gains and losses, waiting on data and gearing up for the Fed summit.  However, the bulls continue to push higher, sporting modest gains ahead of the retail sales numbers across the board.  One must wonder if the market will ignore the data as it has done lately with negative economic news. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

On the hump day earnings calendar, we have 33 companies listed but several small-cap unconfirmed reports.  Notable reports include CRM, ADSK, ATHM, BOX, DKS, EXPR, GES, NTAP, PLAB, PSTG, SCVL, SNOW, SPLK, ULTA, & WSM.

News & Techincals’

The U.S. House voted to approve a $3.5 trillion budget resolution to forward sweeping social programs without a single Republican vote.  Leaders have pledged to a vote on the deficit spending plan by September 27th.  Vice President Harris called out China’s bullying tactics while visiting Vietnam and donating a million vaccine doses.  According to reports, the U.S. is also opening a review of U.S – China trade policies. Treasury yields moved higher this morning, with the 10-year lifting to 1.29% and the 30-year rising to 1.91%. 

Another day of record in the SPY and QQQ in a choppy below-average volume session as we wait on the Durable Goods figures that will release an hour before the market open.  The market is also gearing up for the Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off on Thursday.  Jerome Powell will speak at 10 AM Eastern time on Friday, where investors will be listening and hoping to gain some insight into the central bank’s plans on tapering the $120 billion a month program.  The bulls remain in control on the technical front, with the DIA and IWM still lagging behind the big tech-driven rally in the SPY and QQQ.  Now the question is, what will the retail numbers say?  Will it continue to support this short-term extension, or will we see a re-emergence of the bears?  The big miss on consumer confidence has traders and investors on the edge of their seats as they wait for the data.  Another question to be answered is if the number does miss, will it matter?  Lately, the market has had an incredible ability to ignore bad economic news.  We will soon find out.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

A Pause Before We Get to Jackson Hole?

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Markets essentially opened very slightly higher Tuesday and then ground sideways with a slight bullish lean until about 2:30 pm.  At that point, we saw profit-taking right into the close.  This left us with tiny, Gap-Up Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day SPY closed up 0.15% (to another new all-time high close), DIA closed up 0.08%, and QQQ closed up 0.31% (to another new all-time high close).  The VXX was flat at 26.71 and T2122 rose but remains in the midrange at 70.97.  10-year bond yields moved higher to 1.299% and Oil (WTI) gained 3% to $67.66/barrel.

After the close, the House voted to approve a procedural measure that advances both the $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure bill.  The move comes after Democratic infighting was resolved and will allow Democrats to approve the massive spending bills without any Republican votes.  While still a long way off, this is another major step toward both the Infrastructure bill (great for steel, telecom, and other industries) and the Democratic budget agenda (increased social “safety net” and education spending), which may hurt industries like insurance and drug companies as well as tax increases on business and high-income. 

30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 3.03%.  This was the first drop in rates in the last 3 weeks.  However, mortgage demand remains light, seeing only a 1% increase in refinance applications and a 3% increase in new loan applications from last week.

JNJ reported that its Covid Booster shot is showing a promising immune response in early trials this morning.  Specifically, trial participants are showing a nine-fold increase in antibodies 4 weeks after the booster shot.  In other virus-related news, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this surge.  The totals rose to 38,968,925 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 648,161. The averages are now at 148,755 new cases and 873 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but heavily to the green side.  Taiwan (+1.35%), Malaysia (+1.06%), and Thailand (+0.85%) led to the upside.  The only red was minor and came from Japan (-0.03%) and Hong Kong (-0.13%).  In Europe, we also see mixed markets, but on more modest moves at this hour.  The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (-0.16%), and CAC (+0.16%) are typical of the mix across the continent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open.  The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.02% open at this hour.  Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are slightly higher at 1.309% and Oil is up a third of a percent in early trading, even as the Dollar shows a little strength against other currencies.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DKS, LX, QH, RY, and VIOT before the open.  Then after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, SPLK, ULTA, and WSM report.

As traders begin preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium (Central Banker Summit, which is virtual this year), the pause may continue again today. Traders will focus on figuring out how “tapering” will be couched in the discussions and then handicapping how the market will react. While July Durable Goods and Current Oil Inventories new could theoretically move markets, the more likely scenario is that we drift as traders prepare. That’s our cue to be prepared as well. What will you need to do to your portfolio if we see a taper tantrum pullback? How about if we see an “everything’s hunky-dory” rally? Plan ahead so that you aren’t running around with your hair on fire if one of those does come to pass Thursday or Friday.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SWCH, NLOK, SBUX, DKNG, CARR, PENN, AMC, GME, CAN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

|607% in just 24 months |

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Setting New Record Highs

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New Record Highs

Another big day of buying the relief rally set new record highs in the SPY and QQQ on Monday.  In just 3-trading days, the SP-500 rallied 110 points, and the Nasdaq surged 519 points, a massive of 3.60%.  With the U.S. House poised to deliver two more massive deficit spending bills with reclaimed bullish trends, it seems the sky is the limit for how high the indexes can go. Debit, consumer sentiment, inflation, and rising pandemic impacts seem to have no impact on the willingness to push prices higher.  So stay with the trend, and let’s continue to party as long as it lasts.

Overnight Asian markets continued to recover, with the Hong Kong leaping a whopping 2.46%, spurred on by the Pfizer vaccine approval.  However, European markets are not so rambunctious this morning, mainly trading lower but with modest losses.  That said, U.S. futures indicate a higher open and more new records as tech continues to reach for the stars.  Don’t rule out the possibility of profit-taking, and be careful not to chase already extended stocks. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

This Tuesday, we have 33 companies listed on the earnings calendar, with several unconfirmed reports.  Notable reports include BBY, AAP, INTU, MDT, JWN, PDD, TOL, & URBN.

News & Technicals’

The U.S. House has delayed voting to advance the massive spending plans as centrists pushed Speaker Nancy Pelosi to vote on the Senate-passed infrastructure bill before moving on the 3.5 trillion packages. The natural gas pipeline between Europe and Russia has recently slowed the delivery, raising questions about the potential cause and implications for global gas markets.  Angela Merkel says further sanctions may be imposed if Moscow is using the gas supply as a weapon.  Leaders will meet virtually for an emergency G7 meeting with countries pushing President Biden to extend the Aug. 31st deadline.  However, Afghanistan delivered a redline to the U.S., saying it will not accept and extension raising tensions as efforts to get Americans and those who supported our efforts out of the country.  Treasury yields rose slightly this morning, with the 10-year increase to 1.268% and the 30-year trading up to 1.888%.

The strong bounce that began on Friday surged to new record highs in the SPY and QQQ led by big tech giants.  Microsoft, Google, and NVDA printed new record prices joined by others that rallied strongly yesterday.  CNBC said the FDA’s full approval of the PFE vaccine was the impetus for the bullish surge, but most of the enthusiasm was tech-based.  That said, there are still a significant number of stocks below their 200-day moving averages, creating a wide divide between the have’s and have not’s.  The overall SP-500 P/E ratio is more than 94% above its 10-year historical average, and one has to wonder how much higher it could go.  Of course, the U.S. House is moving forward with two huge spending bills, and we all know how much the market seems to love deficit spending.  So stay with the trend but stay on guard should the bears find another reason to attack.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

More Good Retail Earnings This Morning

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Markets gapped higher Monday and then kept rallying until about 1 pm.  However, the rest of the day saw some persistent profit-taking that lasted into the close.  This left us with strong white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices.  On the say, SPY gained 0.87% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ gained 1.50% (to a new all-time high close).  The VXX fell 3.4% to 26.81 and T2122 remained in the mid-range at 55.65.  10-year bond yields were flat at 1.257% and Oil (WTI) spiked higher 5.3% to $65.44/barrel as commodities across the board showed very strong gains on a very weak dollar.

The FDA gave “Full Approval” (as opposed to “Emergency Use Approval”) to the PFE Covid vaccine on Monday.  President Biden then made a plea to those unvaccinated Americans, saying “Please get vaccinated now.”  He went on to stress that the vaccine has now proven to be 91% effective at preventing infection and once vaccinated, there is a very low statistical probability of having a severe infection. As of Sunday, only 51% of American adults were fully vaccinated. In somewhat related news, DIS reached a deal with unions to require all employees be vaccinated.

In earnings news, the retail sector continues to impress as BBY posted a beat on revenue and 58% obliteration of earnings estimates.  BBY stock was up 6% in pre-market trading on the news.  AAP also beat on both lines, but PDD missed on revenue from the retail sector this morning.  In other sectors, MDT and BNS beat on both lines as well.  In fact, for the earnings season, 90% of the S&P500 have reported an average earnings gain of 95% year over year.

Related to the virus, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this Delta surge.  The totals rose to 38,814,596 confirmed cases and deaths are now at a total of 646,667.  Remember that these numbers are now under-reported as many (mostly Southern) states have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is increasing at an average of 147,693 new cases per day.  Deaths, which lag, are also still rising and are now at 846 per day. 

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board as Chinese tech stocks rallied hard.  Hong Kong (+2.46%) and Malaysia (+2.03%) were standouts.  However, the major exchanges all saw about a 1% gain.  In Europe, markets are mixed on modest moves so far today.  The FTSE (-0.16%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (-0.39%) are typical of the region at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to modest gaps higher at the open.  The DIA is implying a +0.14% open, the SPY implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.26% open at this hour.  The dollar and 10-year bond yields are flat in early trading, but Oil (WTI) is showing another 1.8% gain to $66.84/barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to July New Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AAP, BNS, BBY, HTHT, MDT, and PDD before the open.  Then after the close, VNET, HEI, INTU, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN report.

In Asia, it seems the worries over Chinese Tech regulations and Covid have eased (China reported no cases for a second straight day after their draconian regional crackdown). Europe seems to also be in a better mood as the PFE-BNTX vaccine approval in the US eased some concerns and Fed tapering expectations have been calmed by recent statements. With breadth (T2101) up off its lows and back into the highs of the period since the Spring rally and stocks at all-time highs again, the bulls are looking for some follow-through this morning.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPT, ARRY, DKNG, MS, AMRN, SWCH, GNOG You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Considerable Improvement

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Considerable Improvement

The choppy relief rally slowly gained strength on Friday, providing a considerable improvement on the technical front as the SPY and QQQ recovered price supports.  Of course, we still have overhead resistance levels to deal with, but if the premarket surge holds through the pending economic report, the QQQ is easily within striking distance of new records.  The small-cap IWM remains the weakest index, but with oil perking up this morning, look for some modest improvement.  That said, the economic data may still put some stumbling blocks in the path forward, so prepare for the wild price volatility to continue.

Asian markets surged off last week’s lows, lead by the NIKKEI up 1.78%, as it recovered from last week’s bearishness.  This morning, European markets trade in the green across the board, feeling some sweet relief after the recent selloff.  Ahead of earnings and possible market-moving economic data, U.S. futures look to extend Friday’s rally, with the QQQ pushing for a record-breaking breakout. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have 25 companies with several unconfirmed expected on the Monday earnings calendar.  Notable reports include JD, MSGE, & PANW.

News & Technicals’

As evacuations continue from the Kabul Airport, a firefight broke out between Afghan security and unknown attackers.  Once Afghan security personal was killed and three others wounded.  Treasury yields begin the week slightly higher this morning, with the 10-year trading up to 1.273% and the 30-year trading at 1.889%. 

On Friday, we saw considerable improvement on the technical front, with the SPY and QQQ surging above resistance levels.  With futures surging this morning, the DIA will join them as the QQQ stretches toward a possible new record.  However, we do have some possible stumbling blocks in this week’s economic reports.  Which includes PMI, Durable Goods, GDP, housing data, and even some Fed speak from the chairman.  Keep a close eye on the price action as we test record resistance highs, and with earnings reports winding down, it may not be as easy to ignore concerning economic data as we have seen of late. In addition, the sharply lower consumer sentiment may prove to be problematic for market gains if housing and durable goods orders continue to slip or inflationary numbers continue to rise. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug