Stocks opened just on the Southside of flat on Thursday before selling off slightly in the morning.  Then we saw a reversal and strong rally that lasted until we got a pullback the last half hour of the day.  This left us with indecisive, Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY gained 0.50%, DIA gained 0.35%, and QQQ gained 0.24%.  The VXX fell 1.35% to 24.05 and T2122 rose a bit to 36.96.  10-year bond yields surged again to 2.665% and Oil (WTI) rose just less than 1% to $97.13/barrel.

US Consumer debt jumped by almost $42 billion in February.  Debt levels rose to a record $4.5 trillion.  That was a much higher rate than the January increase and signals the impacts on consumers, which are being stretched thin by inflation.  Credit card debt alone jumped almost 21% in the month, compared to a 4% increase back in January.  This begins investors worrying about missed payments and bad debt collection and write-off impacts on creditors and especially regional banks (card issuers). This probably accounts for the fact that consumer confidence is at a 10-year low.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

BAC market analysts turned bearish on the economy overnight, lowering ratings on the entire transportation and homebuilding industries.  They also expressed concern over the banking sector not showing the profit gains that are expected in typical rising rate environments.  The bottom line is that they now expect a recession and almost immediate rotation into defensive sectors and assets (such as bonds).  Are they late to the party…you be the judge?

On the Russian invasion story, Congress voted to approve the stripping of Russia of its most-favored-nation trade status and also banned Russian oil and gas imports.  Less reported but more importantly, earlier the US re-enacted (by unanimous Senate vote) the World War II “Lend-Lease” program and has removed the 5-year limit on the duration of loans.  The bill also declares the conflict in Ukraine began with the ceasing of Crimea.  This implies the US will back Ukraine through the end of the conflict (years if needed), including the recapture of Crimea.  On the other side of things, Germany urged their banks and gas purchasing companies to keep their contracts with Russia Gazprom.  In addition, Hungary bought a stake in Russian Sberbank in a sign of support for Putin by his friend Hungarian PM Orban.  MSFT also announced it had used a court order to disable 7 internet domains used by Russia to hack Ukrainian targets such as media organizations and government agencies.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside in modest trading.  India (+0.82%), Taiwan (+0.62%), Shanghai and Australia (both +0.47%) led the gains.  Meanwhile, Singapore (-0.62%) was the main loser with a couple of other exchanges just on the red side of flat.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board (with the lone exception of Russia’s -1.18%) at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.97%), DAX (+1.31%), and CAC (+1/37%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.40% open, the SPY is implying a +0.33% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.34% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up again to 2.688% and Oil (WTI) is down to $95.95/barrel in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to the WASDE (World Agriculture) Report at noon.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

As the premarkets look modestly higher this morning, we are still looking at a down week at this point. A lack of economic news and/or earnings leaves traders to focus on news such as the Russian overnight bombing of a railway station full of evacuees and market analysts becoming more convinced recession is coming to an economy near you sometime in the next two quarters. These will be limited headwinds for the bulls. With all this said, we should expect more volatility (just like yesterday’s big intraday reversal) and be prepared. That means either being very nimble/quick, being hedged, or having loose enough stops (and the ability to withstand short-term pain) to ride out the whipsaw action. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Remember that it’s Friday and we have a weekend news cycle ahead. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OLLI, HBIO, TLRY, X, ORCL, MRO, BITO, XLF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down significantly Wednesday and then ground sideways, first in a fairly tight range, but then in a very volatile way to end the day.  This left us with gap-down, indecisive candles in all 3 major indices.  The SPY printed a Doji while the DIA and QQQ printed Spinning Top candles.  On the day, SPY lost 0.99%, DIA lost 0.43%, and QQQ lost 2.17%.  The VXX fell 1% to 24.55 and T2122 dropped to 28.39.  10-year bond yields pulled back over the day but still spiked higher to 2.59% and Oil (WTI) fell 4.85% to $97.02/barrel.

The Fed minutes released Wednesday afternoon told us that the Fed has reached a consensus to begin reducing the FOMC Balance Sheet by $95 billion/month probably starting in May.  This is twice the rate compared to the last time the Fed shrunk its balance sheet and may leave bond markets starved for supply even as traders try to flee to the safety of bonds.  (This will fight against the Fed’s attempt to raise rates since higher bond prices mean lower yields.)  There was also a strong hint that at least some of the interest rate hikes ahead will be 0.50% hikes.  These are clear signs the Fed is now hawkish and will be aggressive in its fight against inflation.  While this caused considerable volatility in the afternoon today, buckle up as the most Hawkish member of the Fed (Bullard) will be speaking today.  (He previously called for a full percentage hike by the first of July.)

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

During the day, Oil Inventories came in much higher than expected.  The consensus forecast had called for a 2 million barrel drawdown, but inventories came in showing a 2.4-million-barrel increase.  This came the same day that Congress took turns blasting top executives from major oil companies.  Executives from XOM, CVX, BP, SHEL, PXD, and DVN all took turns being berated for windfall profits as well as increasing their buyback plans and dividends rather than increasing production.  The companies were also blasted for investing in Russian projects after Russia ceased and annexed Crimea.

In other market news, BRKB (Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway) revealed that it has taken a $4.2 billion position in HPQ, causing the computer and printer company stock to soar as much as 17% in premarket trading.  Elsewhere, Chinese company Tencent has shut down its fledgling rival to AMZN subsidiary Twitch (video game streaming platform).  This comes after Chinese regulators killed a merger between the two video game streaming platforms that Tencent had major stakes in.  This eliminates the only major global rival to AMZN in that growing niche market. Also this morning, CAG reported beats on both lines while STZ beat on revenue at the same time it reported a miss on earnings.

Overnight, the Asian markets red across the board.  Taiwan (-1.96%), Japan (-1.65%), and Shenzhen (-1.65%) led the region lower.  However, losses were widespread and only New Zealand (-0.03%) was anywhere near flat on the day.  In Europe, we see a different story altogether.  Stocks are green across the board with only two minor exceptions of the FTSE (-0.07%) and Norway (-0.27%) at mid-day.  The DAX (+0.71%) and CAC (+0.70%) are typical of the continent with even Russia (+1.17%) gaining in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a slightly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.31% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 2.607% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.23% to $98.35 in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and 4 speakers (Fed member Bullard at 9 am, Treasury Sec. Yellen at 10:30 am, Fed member Bostic at 2 pm, and Fed member Williams at 4:05 pm.  The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day are CAG, STZ, and LW all before the open.  There are no major earnings announcements scheduled for after the close.

After a day and a half of markets being spooked by Fed doves, this morning we hear from the staunchest hawk among Fed members. Premarkets are not running scared in the face of this prospect. So, it may be a case of investors already “cooking in” a worst-case and feeling like Bullard’s proposed medicine won’t be so bad. At any rate, stocks are on the green side of flat heading into his talk. That and Weekly Jobless claims are the only news to worry about in premarket. However, we also have 3 other Fed speakers who might rock the boat later in the day. So, maybe markets have found a level to consolidate or find some support. However, expect more volatility as traders continue to try to guess how inflation, rising interest rates, and a potential hard landing will shake out across the market. Trade carefully and position yourself so that shocks in either direction don’t throw you into a panic.

Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FIGS, HBIO, PYPL, SQ, DOCU, BABA, MCD, ORCL, PFE, TT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped modestly lower Tuesday. At that point, both the large-cap indices immediately filled the gap before joining QQQ in an all-day selloff that closed just up off the lows. In the process, all 3 major indices gave back all of Monday’s gains as well as falling through their respective T-lines.  All 3 printed black candles.  On the day, SPY lost 1.26%, DIA lost 0.83%, and QQQ lost 2.22%.  The VXX gained 1.5% to 24.81 and T2122 fell all the way back to 32.34, still in the mid-range but approaching the lower end of the range.  10-year bond yields spiked higher to 2.552%, which allowed them to get the “2s vs 10s” out of inversion, but the “5s vs. 30s” still remains inverted.  Oil (WTI) fell 2.15% to $101.06/barrel. 

The main story driving markets Tuesday was Minneapolis Fed President (and Vice-Chair nominee) Lael Brainard (normally a dove who favors loose FOMC policy) spooking markets mid-day when said she expects the Fed to start reducing its balance sheet in May.  What really gave the bears strength was that she said she foresees the FOMC doing so at “a rapid pace.”  She also said that rate hikes may come at a more aggressive pace than the 0.25% increments the Fed did in March and has been normal.  Later in the day, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (also a dove) told a different group that rates are going higher and said she does not think this will cause a recession. This news and hawkish tone from two of the FOMC’s doves raised fears among investors. this continues to scare markets this morning as futures bets are now pricing in half percent hikes at several Fed meetings over the remainder of the year.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, President Biden, the EU, and G7 are set to announce another round of coordinated sanctions on Russia in response to the recently found war crimes.  This round will include targeting more Russian Banks, Kremlin officials, and their family members.  A ban on new investment in Russian state-owned firms will also be included.  Most importantly, the EC will ban $4.3 billion of Russian coal in phases. This will be the first real hit to Russia’s most important sector, Energy. In fact, early this morning European Council President Von der Leyen said she expects eventual sanctions directly on Russian oil and gas imports to Europe.

Spiking rates continue to crush mortgage demand.  The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 4.80% to 4.90% during the week.  They even went above 5% on Tuesday, a first since 2018.  This caused refinance loan applications to fall another 10% week on week, while new home purchase applications fell 3%.  Overall, mortgage demand is down 40% from one year ago.

Overnight, the Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Only Malaysia (+0.50%) managed any real gain.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.87%), Japan (-1.58%), and South Korea (-0.88%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the lone, minor exception of Russia (+0.20%) stocks are red across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.33%) lags again, but the DAX (-1.69%) and CAC (-1.88%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap lower at the open.  The DIA implies a -0.57% open, the SPY is implying a -0.81% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.35% open to start the day.  10-year bond yields are spiking again to 2.633% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.35% to $103.32 in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  There will also be a Fed speaker (Harker at 9:30 am).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day are RPM, SCHN, and GBX before the open as well as LEVI after the close. 

The words of two Fed doves gave markets a scare Tuesday and apparently, markets came to realize this was not something we should shake off overnight. So, we are looking for a gap down after yesterday/s all-day reversal of Monday. Again we have basically no market-moving news scheduled and basically no earnings which might drive markets. So, traders’ eyes will continue to focus on interest rates, the fear of recession, and the talking heads (fund managers) are likely to promote the idea that the Fed should not do half-percent raises. Volatility still remains a concern, but the very short-term trend is back in control of the bears. Position yourself accordingly.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ZBH, DG, GSK, DRE, JNJ, ALL, IP, GILD, ABBV, NWL, FMC, WFC, AEO, STX, DISCA, COF, SYF, PATH, AIG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened relatively flat on Monday.  However, at that point, stocks went on a slow, steady, all-day rally.  The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all closed very near their highs.  This gave us a definite Morning Star signal in the QQQ and 3-candle patterns you could at least say were “Morning Star-like” in the SPY and DIA.  With that said, the QQQ sits right at it 200sma and the DIA just below that major average.  On the day, SPY gained 0.88%, DIA (the weakest of the trio today) gained 0.35%, and QQQ gained a strong 2.06%.  It is worth noting that today’s action took place on volumes that were less than half the normal average across all 3 major indices.  The VXX fell 2.4% to 24.43 and T2122 climbed just inside the overbought territory at 83.24.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.41% and Oil (WTI) spiked yet again by 4.4% to $103.64/barrel.

TWTR (+27.12%) had its best day since the company’s IPO in November 2013.  This happened (mostly on a gap higher) as an SEC filing revealed that Elon Musk had taken a 9.2% passive position in the stock.  That position makes him the largest shareholder, but represents less than 1% of his wealth.  This, plus the fact that Musk has said he is considering creating his own social media platform has led analysts to believe he will increase his stake in TWTR and eventually take a more active role in the running of the company.  Interestingly, Musk seems to be picking another fight with the SEC. His disclosure came 20 days after Musk accumulated his position and that is a violation of SEC rules requiring large passive positions to be disclosed in 10 days or less.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The 2-year versus 10-year bond yields inverted again Monday.  This means that the 2-year bond pays a higher rate than the 10-year, which is not normal and implies there is greater risk in the short term.  Every recession since 1950 has been preceded by such an inversion, although the lag time can be as long as 2 years.  There was also one “false positive” where there was an inversion, but no recession followed.

Regarding the Russian invasion, the EU will propose a ban on Russian coal imports as part of its “post war crime” round of sanctions. French President Macron also proposed sanctions against Russian oil.  However, these will both be very difficult proposals to get passed since Russia supplies 70% of the EU’s coal and 30% of the EU’s oil. Germany is particularly dependent on Russia for energy.  Meanwhile, the US is also preparing another round of sanctions, which is said to include prohibiting Russia from paying its debt payments in US Dollars through American banks.  This will just make it harder for Russia to avoid defaulting on loans.

XOM disclosed Monday that they expect to report record profits on April 29.  This comes as oil prices have soared and padded the company’s bottom line by at least $2.3 billion for the quarter.  However, the company said they also expect to write down its $4 billion investment for a Russian drilling project that the company is in the process of discontinuing as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Executives from XOM, CVX, BP, DVN, SHEL, and PXD have all been called to testify before Congress about price gouging on Wednesday.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned more to the upside.  Hong Kong (+2.10%) was an outlier to the upside, but Shanghai (+0.94%), Shenzhen (+0.91%), and Singapore (+0.82%) led the region higher.  AT the same time, India (-0.53%) and Taiwan (-0.38%) paced the losers.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the downside at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.10%) is an outlier, but the DAX (-0.56%), and CAC (-1.67%) are typical to the downside.  Russia (-4.68%) is, of course, also an outlier.  Gainers include Denmark (+1.60%) and Portugal (+1.27%).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.28% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up strongly again to 2.463% and oil (WTI) is up nearly another percent in early trading this morning.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday includes Imports/Exports and Feb. Trade Balance (both at 8:30 am), March Services PMI (9:45 am), March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Kashkari at 10 am, Brainard at 10:05 am, and Williams at 2 pm.   The only major earnings report scheduled for the day is AYI before the open. 

Premarket action seems to indicate a rest after Monday’s tech-led rally. Again we have minimal impactful news and basically no earnings which might drive markets. Eyes will continue to focus on interest rate inversions and the talking heads (fund managers) are likely to promote the idea that the Fed should not do half-percent raises with the dual pressures of inflation and the war in Ukraine hanging over the economy. Volatility still remains a concern, but the trend is definitely still bullish and yesterday’s action (Morning Star signals on small pullbacks in a strong trend) implies that we will see some follow-through, although not necessarily today. So, all traders can do is focus on the chart and be prepared for volatility-caused short-term pain.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GSK, CVLT, PYPL, MRO, DG, FB, BE, TWLO, AAPL, MSFT, APA, DKNG, PINS, CLF, MTTR, CLOV You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a modest gap higher on Friday after the March Payrolls report came in with fewer jobs added than expected.  However, it makes the 11^th straight month of more than 400k jobs added, the participation rate is essentially where it was pre-pandemic, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%.  After the open stocks meandered their way back down to the lows at about 1:30 pm before an afternoon rally took all 3 major indices back up off the lows.  This left us with black Hammer-type candles in all 3, although you could make a strong argument for a Doji in the DIA.  All 3 are close to their T-lines as of the close, after testing that level.  On the day, SPY gained 0.28%, DIA gained 0.34%, and QQQ lost 0.20%.  The VXX fell 2.6% to 25.03 and T2122 climbed back just outside the overbought territory to 75.53.  10-year bond yield retreated during the day but still closed up at 2.371%.  It is worth noting that both the 2s vs 10s and 5s vs 30s bond yields are inverted, which is broadly seen as an indicator that there will be a future recession. Oil (WTI) fell seven-tenths of a percent to $99.56/barrel as the UK followed President Biden’s example and announced they will be releasing oil from their strategic reserves as well.

On Friday, the Labor Relations Board announced that Staten Island NY AMZN workers voted in favor of a union (with not enough disputed votes to flip the vote).  The re-vote in Bessemer AL is still undecided with the company ahead in the voting, but over 400 votes now going to a ballot dispute process. Meanwhile, in Congress, the House voted to decriminalize marijuana nationally, expunge marijuana conviction records, and levy a tax on marijuana sales (starting at 5% and eventually moving to 8%).  This sends the bill to the Senate where passage will be more difficult to get passed.  Elsewhere, on Saturday TSLA announced that they had delivered a record 310k cars during Q1.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

TWTR shares spiked as much as 30% in premarket trading after a 13G public filing revealed that Elon Musk has acquired a 9.2% stake in the company.  That purchase makes him the largest outside shareholder in the company.  However, this purchase was classified as a “passive stake” in the company.  Nonetheless, shares are spiking at the prospect of him buying more or taking an active role.  His purchase comes less than two weeks after Musk criticized the company over its acceptable speech policies and then conducted a TWTR poll on whether the company adheres to free speech principles and what should be done about it.

On the Russian invasion story, over the weekend it was announced by both sides that the negotiations have progressed to a point where a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky makes sense.  This meeting will take place in Turkey in the unspecified not-too-distant future.  However, then Sunday, Russia announced that negotiations have not arrived at that point and their original positions still stand.  So, this is either negotiating tactics or disarray between the Russian negotiation team and the Kremlin.  Meanwhile, several mass graves and evidence of Russian war crimes emerged in liberated regions over the weekend.  On Sunday the EU warned they are likely to levy additional sanctions over those crimes.  However, the sanction threat again stops short of blocking ALL Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system or stopping the flow of Russian Gas and Oil to Europe

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  India (+2.17%), Hong Kong (+2.10%), and Shanghai (+0.91%) led the region higher while Taiwan (-0.38%) and New Zealand (-0.30%) were the most appreciable losers.  In Europe, stocks are leaning to the upside at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (+0.16%), and CAC (+0.17%) are lagging, but as always far exceed the rest of the continent in volume.  Switzerland (+1.09%) is an outlier to the upside as is Denmark (-1.30%) to the downside in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.40% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are modestly higher to 2.39% and Oil (WTI) is up less than 50 cents in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to Feb. Factory Orders (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. 

The economic news later this week includes Imports/Exports, Feb. Trade Balance, Mar. Services PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and a couple of Fed speakers all on Tuesday.  Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories and Feb. FOMC Minutes.  Thursday brings Weekly Jobless Claims and 4 different speeches from 3 Fed members.  Friday will also be limited to the WASDE global agriculture report.

April is statistically the best month for stocks and it starts off with a week of little news and very light earnings activity. MS made a point this weekend to tell their customers they believe the “bear market rally” is now over. JPM’s Jamie Dimon seems to agree, saying that the confluence of inflation and the war in Ukraine creates a dramatic increase in market risk. Still, stocks are up 10% from the lows and have been very strong since mid-March. Volatility has plateaued off recently, but is still far off the lows and remains a concern. Many eyes will be on the interest rate inversions (and the implied future recession) as well as how the Fed is going to get from here to where they end up on rates. With all that said, it is probably time to be back in the market, perhaps on both sides, and cautiously riding the trend. Just be prepared for volatility-caused short-term pain and watch that herd mentality.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TWTR, EYE, CELH, PSFE, SPT, AIZ, PLTK, AUY, AAPL, MSFT, LLY, DBX, IWM, ZBH, BMY, JNJ, FCX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks opened very modestly lower on Thursday and proceeded to wobble around until 11 am when a slow, steady selloff started and lasted until 3 pm.  However, that last hour of the day saw a brutal selloff in all 3 major indices only managing to bounce up slightly from the lows of the day.  This left us with big, ugly, black candles that gave up the T-line in the SPY and DIA, with the QQQ closing not far above that 8ema.  On the day, SPY lost 1.44%, DIA lost 1.50%, and QQQ lost 1.28%.  The VXX rose just under 3% to 25.70 and T2122 fell all the way back to the mid-range at 48.02.  10-year bond yields recovered from early lows to close at 2.347%.  There was also a 2-year vs. 10-year rate inversion on Thursday, an event that has preceded every recession since 1955.  However, the lead time between this inversion and those recessions varies greatly and can be as long as 2 years.  Oil (WTI) closed down 6.16% to $101.08/barrel after President Biden confirmed he will be releasing 1 million barrels of oil per day for 180 days from the strategic oil reserves.

The day’s action brought the first quarter to a close.  During the quarter, despite a very strong rally over the last 3 weeks, it was not a good 3 months for any of the major indices.  SPY lost over 5% for the 3-month period even after rallying well over 8% during the last 13 sessions.  DIA lost 4.75% since the first of the year even after rallying 6.4% since March 8^th.  However, the worst-hit index ETF was the QQQ, which lost almost 10% over the quarter (despite a rally of almost 14% since March 14).  All-in-all, this was the worst quarter since 2020.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, Russian troops have left Chernobyl and the Ukrainians who are back in control of the plant (according to the IAEA) claim a number of the Russian troops received significant doses of radiation during their occupation.  The UK has agreed to join the US in releasing oil from their strategic reserves as part of the effort to offset the effects and push for more restrictions on Russian oil supplies.  India is hosting a visit from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.  This comes just after UK Foreign Sec. Truss and US Deputy National Security Advisor Singh were in Delhi pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil (which Russia is selling to India at a discount to keep the sales going).

In business news, AMZN faced unionization votes at both their Bessemer AL (re-vote after AMZN unduly influenced the first vote) and Staten Island NY warehouses on Thursday.  As of Thursday evening, no definitive results were announced.  However, in AL the union was 118 votes behind with 416 disputed ballots left uncounted.  This is far different than last year’s vote where the company won the vote by a 2-to-1 margin.  In NY, it looks like the facility will unionize with about 57% of the counted vote favoring unionization as some counting continues today.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed with more exchanges green than red.  New Zealand (+1.18%), Malaysia (+0.95%), and Shanghai (+0.94%) led the gainers while   South Korea (-0.65%), Japan (-0.56%), and Taiwan (-0.38%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are green across the board (including Russia +1.94%) with the lone exception of Portugal (-0.33%) at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.26%), DAX (+0.41%), and CAC (+0.53%) lead the way as usual.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open to the day (in front of a lot of economic data).  The DIA implies a +0.49% open, the SPY is implying a +0.45% open, and QQQ implies a +0.44% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 2.406% and Oil (WTI) is flat in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Participation Rate, and Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (at 9:45 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The February Payrolls data, which is expected to be good, will likely have some impact on premarkets. However, at this point, it looks like we are headed for a green start to the day. Let’s hope it isn’t an “April Fools” joke that leads to intraday reversals. With that said, we should continue to expect volatility (especially in energy markets) to continue to be the norm. The bulls still have the momentum and the couple of days of pullback we’ve seen may have been just what the doctor ordered for a continued rally. With that said, don’t get complacent. It is Friday, with a weekend news cycle ahead and a war at the edge of Europe still raging.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas Today You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service