Recording and Tracking Trades – Member Malcolm Myles
In this video, one of our great members shares how he records every trade by going through an example. Trust me, invest 25 minutes to see this awesome presentation and improve your trading.
Bulls Bounce Back Strong – Invasion Continues
Thursday saw a dramatic turn-around as a major Russian Invasion gap-down across the board was met by a strong all-day rally that closed near the highs in all 3 major indices as well as the small-caps (IWM). This led to Bullish Belthold signals and green days in all 4 indices. (Remember that all candle signals require confirmation.) On the day, SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 0.25%, and QQQ gained a massive 3.36%. This was a tremendous feat after they had gapped down between 2.5% and 3.5%. VXX lost 3% on the day to 23.94 and T2122 jumped up out of the oversold territory to 25.54. 10-year bond yields recovered from their premarket lows to close down modestly to 1.965% and Oil (QTI) gained 1.35% to $93.25.
The Russian invasion continues today as Russian troops near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Meanwhile, the West is claiming they are now instituting “crippling sanctions.” However, that’s debatable since neither of the so-called “nuclear sanctions” was issued. (Those being tariffs or embargoes placed on the main Russian exports of Oil, Nat. Gas, and Wheat as well as Russia being kicked out of the SWIFT payment system, which would have made all international trade very hard and very expensive.) The main sanctions that were put in place are the freezing of Russian bank assets and a prohibition on those banks from raising funds in Western financial markets. However, it is theoretically possible that Germany, Spain, Italy, and other holdouts may still change their minds on those hammer-blow sanctions as the invasion and occupation wear on. The bottom line is that, as of now, Markets do not perceive major disruptions or problems for the global economy from the invasion.
SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade
In other news, Q4 GDP came in at 7.0% as expected and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were very slightly better than expected. However, Jan. New Home Sales came in slightly less than expected and, interestingly, Crude Oil Inventories came in much higher (4.1 million barrels higher) than was expected.
On the earnings front, after the close, OXY, VMW, SQ, ADSK, ETSY, COIN, UHS, TIMB, SFM, and AAN all reported beats on both lines. Meanwhile, HKXCY, HEI, FTCH, TPC, EIX, and TV all reported beats on earnings but missed on revenue. On the other side, EOG, DELL, AEM, CVNA, OPEN, and OPK beat on revenue but missed on earnings. However, INTU and RKT missed on both revenue and earnings lines.
So far this morning, CM, SRE, NTIOF, LAMR, ICAGY, CRI, CNK, MODV, and SAFM have reported beating on both lines. Meanwhile, LI, SSREY, GTN, and CLMT missed on earnings but beat on revenue. On the other side, FL and TV missed on revenue but beat on earnings. However, QRTEA, SSP, and GVA have reported misses on both lines.
Overnight, the Asian markets were almost green across the board. Hong Kong (-0.59%) was the only red in the region. Meanwhile, India (+2.53%), Japan (+1.95%), and Shenzhen (+1.21%) led the bounce back. In Europe, the rebound is stronger with significant gains all across the continent at mid-day. The FTSE (+2.41%), DAX (+1.63%), and CAC (+1.99%) can even be said to be laggards in the rebound as most of the smaller exchanges have moved more. Even Russia (+12.21%) has bounced quite a bit as the sanctions were not as harsh as feared. Of course, Europe still has an afternoon of trading before they can book this rebound. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly red open. The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.23% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.993% and Oil (WTI) has bounced back half of a percent in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Jan. PCE Price Index, and Jan. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Jan. Pending Home Sales (both at 10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AES, CLMT, CM, CRI, CNK, SSP, EVRG, FL, GTN, IEP, LI, MODV, PNW, QRTEA, SRE, and VST. There are no reports scheduled for after the close.
The bulls in the US showed incredible resilience in the face of Russia’s invasion yesterday. For example, the QQQ saw a 7% swing from the opening lows to closing highs. That being said, one gap-down rebound candle does not break the bearish trend and certainly does not mean a new trend has started. We also need to recognize that the volatility is extremely high. (For example, the ATR5 of QQQ is $13.) So, if you’re going to trade in this environment, be fast, be hedged, and be prepared to withstand significant volatility. Do not be the guy that assumes he picked the bottom and will feel no pain. Also, keep in mind that this is Friday and there is a weekend news cycle in front of us (which can be forever when there is a hot war on the doorstep of a huge part of the world economy…the EU).
Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. When you do trade, trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Be careful out there.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UPST, NKLA, PLUG, GME, HACK, CF, ZEN, MSFT, CHGG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Russia Invades – Traders Flee To Safety
The bears sprang a bull trap on Wednesday as all 3 major indices gapped higher 0.70%-1% at the open. This came after there was no active fighting between Russia and Ukraine overnight. However, that was the highs of the day, and markets sold off from that point (with a brief lunchtime rebound) and drove lower all the way into the close. This left us with big, ugly black candles and gave us the lowest close since June 2021 in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.75%, DIA lost 1.35%, and QQQ lost 2.56%. The VXX was up 5 and a half percent to 24.64 and T2122 fell even further into the oversold territory to 8.04. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.986% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $92.02/barrel.
During the day Wednesday, Ukraine called up 36,000 reserves to support their active military and have declared a state of emergency (allowing them to set curfews, restrict travel, and control press). Ukraine also had to deal with a cyber-attack that took many of its government and banking computer systems offline. Then overnight, Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine as had been predicted by the US and NATO allies. The incursion is on 3 fronts at the moment and Kyiv has been shelled. So, expect more sanctions and whatever retaliatory measure (cyber and cold war) that may result. Oil has already spiked above $100/barrel and the safety trade will be the order of the day in markets.
SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade
Not that it matters today, but after the close, FNF, EXR, LYV, LNVGF, BBWI, LILA, UCTT, EVH, EBAY, NTAP, BKNG, HTZ, MYRG, AMED, and BMRN all reported beating on both lines. Meantime, BTG, LHCG, LILAK, RCII, and PTVE all missed on earnings while beating on revenue. On the other side, MANT missed on revenue but beat on earnings. However, WES, HLF, FLS, FTI, and SNBR all reported misses on both lines.
Again, not that it matters today, but so far this morning RY, BUD, DDAIF, NTES, MRNA, NEM, ABEV, AEP, CBRE, PWR, ARKAY, and PZZA have reported beats on both lines. Meanwhile, BABA, TECK, DISH, NOMD, and SPTN have reported beating on earnings while missing on revenue. On the other side, AMT, KDP, LYG, DISCA, WPP, NCLH, AHEXY, AHCO, JMIA, and MITT reported earnings misses but beat on revenue. However, W, UTHR, PAAS, PRMW, and GCI have missed on both lines.
Overnight, the Asian markets were red across the board as is to be expected in time of war impacting global trade in at least Oil, Natural Gas, and Wheat along with any sanctions that may prevent business of any sort with Russia. India (-4.78%) was the big loser, but the damage was more than 2% everywhere except Malaysia (-0.77%). Hong Kong (-3.21%), South Korea (-2.60%), and Shenzhen (-2.20%) are pretty representative of the regional reaction. In Europe, again as would be expected, the reaction has been worse. The FTSE (-3.01%) is the least impacted, the DAX (-5.01%) and CA (-4.69%) are typical. Interestingly, the Russian exchange (-34.10%) has suffered a massive hit. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a major gap down at the bell. The DIA implies a -2.35% open, the SPY is implying a -2.41% open, and the QQQ implies a -2.92% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields dropped dramatically to 1.859% as traders bid up bonds on the safety trade and Oil (WTI) shot up over 8.2% but has “backed off” to $98.93/barrel at the moment (it was well over $100 earlier).
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Jan. New Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Bostic at 11:10 am, Mester at noon, and Waller at 8 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, BABA, AEP, AMT, BUD, AZUL, BALY, CRC, CBRE, CQP. LNG, CCO, DISCA, DISH, SATS, ELAN, EME, EXPI, FCN, GCI, IBP, IRM, KDP, MRNA, NTES, NOMD, NCLH, NRG, OGE, PZZA, PRMW, PEG, PWR, RY, SJI, SPTN, SRCL, SHOO, TRGP, TECK, VIV, TFX, TEN, TNC, and W. Then after the close, ADSK, SQ, CVNA, CENX, CHE, COIN, CODI, CVET, CWK, DELL, EIX, EBS, ERIE, ETSY, FTCH, FND, INTU, MTZ, MNST, OXY, ZEUS, OPEN, OVV, PBA, RKT, SEM, SM, SWN, SFM, TPC, UNVR, UHS, VMW, WSC, and INT report.
In the face of the Russian invasion, we can expect wholesale selling and rotation toward safety trades (Bonds, Gold, Utilities, etc.). Expect massive volatility today, but it is likely too late to do much damage control unless you were hedged before the shock. If this is like similar past events, expect the fear to wear off as the sanctions and impacts have had time to settle in. However, that won’t help today, at least not early. Personally, I will be looking to ride out the initial shock in positions where it’s too late to be ahead of the news and I definitely won’t chase any new trades until things settle down. In short, today would be a good day to go fishing or sit on your hands if you were not prepared ahead of time.
Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today – this is not the time to step in front of fear and massive volatility. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Oversold yet Fragile Condition
With Putin seemingly pushing for a regime change in Ukraine, the indexes charts are at or near a short-term oversold yet fragile condition. As a result, a relief rally of significance may be challenging for the bulls with the market surrounded by uncertainty. Likely sensitive to any new developments in the conflict, overnight reversal and substantial intraday whipsaws seem likely giving day traders the upper hand and keeping swing and positions traders off balance with little to no edge. Expect volatility to remain high with GDP and Durable Goods reports later this week.
Overnight Asian markets closed mixed with the Nikkei falling 1.71%, while Hong Kong saw some relief rising 0.60%. European markets trade with modest gains, with pensive investors waiting on Ukrainian invasion developments. U.S. futures are also pricing in a bullish open amid the uncertainty with a big earnings day and a light economic calendar.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have a busy day with more than 250 companies listed on the Wednesday earnings calendar. Notable reports include LOW, AEM, ANSS, AVA, BBWI, BCO, BCS, BHC, BIRD, BKNG, BRMN, CHDN, CLH, CPK, DOC, EBAY, EXR, GBT, HEI, HFC, HLF, HTZ, IHRT, IR, JACK, JMIA, LL, LMND, NDLS, NTAP, OLED, OSTK, PAAS, PBR, RCII, RGR, SBGI, SSYS, STLA, STOR, TAP, TJX, VICI, VIPS, & WWW.
News & Technicals’
New omicron infections in the U.S. have plummeted 90% from a pandemic high in a little over a month. The U.S. is reporting about 84,000 new cases per day on average, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, down from a pandemic high of more than 800,000 daily cases on Jan. 15th. As the nation emerges from the omicron wave, the states and the federal government are trying to move past the crisis mentality that gripped the nation two years ago. Russia is also the world’s top wheat exporter. Together with Ukraine, both account for roughly 29% of the global wheat export market. “China is also a big recipient of Ukrainian corn — in fact, Ukraine replaced the U.S. as China’s top corn supplier in 2021,” said Dawn Tiura, president at Sourcing Industry Group. Analysts said that Russia and Ukraine are also big suppliers of metals and other commodities. While the European Union would be affected by the escalating crisis, Germany would be especially hit. The outcome of Russia’s incursion into two breakaway regions of Ukraine is uncertain, but it has already caused commodities prices to shoot higher. Economists say the price of oil matters most because crude prices can drive up inflation and slow down the global economy. What happens to oil could also determine whether the Fed continues a brisk hiking pace after it raises interest rates in March or ultimately slows the pace due to growth concerns. Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking “regime change” and will likely go all the way and invade the rest of Ukraine, according to Jeffrey Edmonds, a former director for Russia at the National Security Council. On Tuesday, the U.S. and U.K. announced fresh sanctions targeting Russian financial institutions, individuals, and sovereign debt after Putin ordered troops into two pro-Moscow regions in eastern Ukraine. It doesn’t make sense for Putin to just hold on to the separatist territories, Edmonds said. “He’s had these territories since 2014, so just moving more troops in there, I don’t think it gets him what he wants.” Treasury yields were back on in Wednesday trading, with the 10-year rising to 1.9807% and the 30-year slightly higher at 2.2716%.
Technically speaking, the indexes are at or near a short-term oversold yet fragile condition. However, the market’s uncertainty could make it difficult for the bulls to mount a substantial relief rally. If you listened to the Putin speech yesterday, it seemed pretty clear he is pushing for regime change in Ukraine, and the conflict seems likely to intensify. Oil continues to be the pressure inflation, and as we saw in the Case-Shiller number yesterday, home prices continue to rise. Although we have a big day on the earnings calendar, we don’t have much for significant market-moving reports. The economic calendar has a lull before the GDP and Durable Goods, Thursday and Friday, respectively. No matter what happens in the price action today, traders will have to keep in mind that the market will remain sensitive to Ukrainian developments. Anything is possible, so plan carefully and be prepared for overnight reversal and intraday whipsaws to continue as the conflict rolls out. Day traders will likely continue to have the upper hand, so taking gains faster than usual may be wise considering the volatility.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Market Over Initial Russia-Ukraine Shock
Tuesday saw a modest gap down on the Russian “soft invasion” of Ukraine. Then, after a half-hour of volatility, markets sold off most of the day. This left us with gap-down, indecisive Spinning Top or Doji candles in all 3 major indices. All 3 are also at the breakout point of a bearish “Dreaded h” pattern. On the day, SPY lost 1.07%, DIA lost 1.46%, and QQQ lost 1.00%. This put all 3 into correction territory, with the QQQ in a bear market (depending on how you measure). The VXX was flat at 23.36 and T2122 dropped down into the oversold territory at 10.24. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.944% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.32% to $92.27/day.
The US and Europe hit Russia with symbolic, but largely meaningless, sanctions as a result of the soft invasion of Ukraine. These included sanctions on a handful of smaller Russian banks (which don’t get their funding from abroad, so the impact is not heavy). Probably most notable was Germany’s decertifying the “Nord Stream 2” Natural Gas pipeline. (50% of Nord Stream 2 funding came from Western Europe and Russia responded by threatening that Europe would soon be paying 20% more than the record price for its natural gas.) Still, this sanction has a minimal impact since the pipeline was not yet online and nobody thinks that the pipeline project won’t eventually be given a green light again. The fear the market is likely to focus on is that Russia recognized the entire DonBas region as being separate from Ukraine, not just the area already controlled by Russian-backed Separatists. That means they claim to support Separatist “ownership” of well over 3 times as much territory as the Separatists actually now control. This implies a Russian offensive in support of its friends to at least the borders of the DonBas region.
SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade
In other news, both the Mfg. and Services PMIs came in higher than expected. Even Conf. Board Consumer Confidence slightly beat expectations. Then, after the close, MOS, AGR, TOL, PANW, FANG, CDNS, PSA, RXT, TXRH, NDSN, O, TDOC, and MTDR all reported beats on both lines. Meanwhile, MELI, CWH, RRC, and EXAS beat on revenue but missed on earnings. On the other side, VRSK, missed on revenue but beat on earnings. However, CZR and RIG missed on both lines.
So far this morning, LOW, ETR, OMI, ODP, BCO, PSN, TNL, WWW, and NI have all reported beats on both lines. Meanwhile, BCS, VIPS, and OSTK reported beats on earnings but came in short on revenue. On the other side, HFC, TAP, DAN, CSTM, VRT, ARKO, and PRG all missed on earnings but beat on revenue. As of now, there have been no reports that missed on both lines.
Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green. Japan (-1.71%) was by far the most bearish with Shenzhen (+1.93%) by far the most bullish. The rest of the region saw modest gains in the half of a percent range. In Europe, markets are rebounding with green seen across the board at mid-day. Of note, Belgium (+1.54%) is a full percent ahead of the rest of the continent. The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (+0.61%), and CAC (+0.99%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open. The DIA implies a +0.52% open, the SPY is implying a +0.63% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.98% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields have risen to 1.969% as traders step back from bonds and Oil (WTI) is down half of a percent in early trading after yesterday’s rise.
There is no major economic news scheduled for Wednesday. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BCS, BHC, BCO, CLH, CSTM, DAN, ETR, FYBR, GIL, HFC, IHRT, LOW, TAP, NI, ODP, OSTK, OMI, PSN, PBR, PRG, SBGI, TJX, TNL, VRT, VIPS, and WWW. Then after the close, AEM, AMED, ANSS, ACA, BBWI, BKNG, CHK, FIX, CTRA, CCRN, CW, DK, EBAY, WTRG, FLS, FNF, FRG, HLF, HTZ, IR, KALU, LHCG, LYV, MANT, VAC, MYRG, NTAP, OPAD, PTVE, PARR, RCII, RYI, SNBR, SUM, FTI, and UCTT report.
The bulls would sure like to do at least a relief rally not that the S&P has entered correction territory. However, Ukraine is in the process of declaring a state of emergency and has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately. The good news is, at least as of now, there is no active fighting between formally Russian troops (as opposed to the Russians posing as Ukrainian Separatists) and Ukrainian forces. So this morning, traders are likely to be over the initial shock and happy there is no active fighting. Look for that little relief rally to ensue. However, keep in mind that the technical damage and overhead resistance are still major hurdles to the bulls getting the market into full rally mode. So, expect volatility, fear news causing market knee-jerks, and trade cautiously.
Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Ask yourself whether you have an edge in this sort of volatility. If not, sitting on your hands may be the best move you could make. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.)
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ABBV, SYY, FTNT, KO, CHKP, CVS, FFIV, CHD, T. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Russia Invading Ukraine
The guessing is over, and now the market has the increased uncertainty of what comes next with Russia invading Ukraine. So it should be no surprise that oil prices are surging while currency, crypto, world markets, and U.S. futures experienced some extreme price volatility overnight. Add in a big day of earnings events possible market-moving economic data, and it’s fair to say anything possible. So plan carefully and expect substantial point whipsaws that could quickly test overnight futures lows as the uncertainty unfolds.
Asian markets experienced a very volatile session, with Hong Kong leading the selling down 2.69%. Somewhat surprisingly, European markets chop around the flatline, trying to shake off the invasion concerns. As earnings roll out, U.S. futures are well off the overnight lows, with Case-Shiller, PMI Flash, and Consumer Confidence numbers just ahead. Be ready for anything with the market likely susceptible to the geopolitical news cycle.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Kicking off a short trading week, we have a busy earnings calendar with more than 200 companies listed. Notable reports include CZR, A, AU, CDNS, CNP, CBRL, CVI, FANG, EXAS, EXPD, FLR, HALO, HR, HL, HD, KTOS, DNUT, LPX, M, MDT, MELI, MOS, NXST, NU, PANW, PSA, RXT, RDN, RRC, O, RNG, TDOC, PTX, TXRH, TOL, RIG, & SPCE.
News & Technicals’
Home Depot on Tuesday said sales grew 11% in the fiscal fourth quarter, as the retailer topped Wall Street’s expectations and said it sees sales growth ahead for 2022. The home improvement retailer said it expects earnings per share growth to be in the low single-digits and sales growth to be “slightly positive” in the coming fiscal year. The company recently named chief operating officer Ted Decker its new CEO, as of March 1. The world is waiting to see what happens next in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to move into breakaway regions of the eastern part of the country. Putin said Russia would recognize the independence of two self-proclaimed and pro-Russian republics in eastern Ukraine. He said he would send Russian troops to the region on a “peacekeeping” mission. Global financial markets were rattled by the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia crisis, with European stocks falling at the open. On Monday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered forces into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine and said he would recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Rising tensions have sent jitters through markets, driving oil prices higher. Treasury yields fell in early Tuesday trading, with the 10-year falling to 1.9009% and the 30-year dipping to 2.2185%.
With Russia invading Ukraine, currencies, crypto, and U.S. futures markets experienced extreme price volatility with wild swings that saw the Dow futures down more than 700 points before rallying to near even by 6 AM eastern. Overnight prices swing this rough sets up a day where anything is possible. As a result, markets will likely be susceptible to substantial point whipsaws that could include a restest of overnight lows. However, experienced day traders could have the upper hand with uncertainty so high due to geopolitical pressures, inflation concerns, and the pending Fed tightening. As a result, swing and position traders may find it very difficult to nearly impossible to have an edge in this market environment. Remember, Cash Is A Position is often underutilized in times of such wild price volatility. This morning we have a significant number of earnings events and Case-Shiller, PMI Flash, and Consumer Confidence numbers to keep markets guessing. Plan your risk carefully!
Trade Wisely,
Doug
Russia Into Ukraine But Futures Recover
On Friday, markets opened more or less flat. Then, after waffling for the first hour, all 3 major indices sold off to the lows about 1:20 pm. Then the options expiration buying took all 3 on a rally into 3 pm. However, the last hour saw another, smaller, down wave. This left us with black candles with fairly large wicks including Spinning Tops in the two large-caps indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.65%, DIA lost 0.79%, and QQQ lost 1.14%. Meanwhile, the VXX gained over 2% to 23.45 and T2122 dropped closer to the oversold territory at 22.49. 10-year bond yields fell back to 1.927% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $91.80/barrel.
On Monday, Russia recognized Ukrainian Separatist Regions as independent nations and ordered his armed forces into those regions under the pretense of protecting them against Ukrainian aggression. This and the Western reactions to it are likely to be the main market drivers Tuesday. Among these reactions are the likely halt of Natural Gas imports to Western Europe from Russia and the cancellation of a Biden-Putin meeting this week. Nonetheless, as of 7 am, US futures have recovered most of the overnight losses (that occurred when the soft invasion started).
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The market is down 10%-20% from the all-time highs. However, many have recently asked, ”given heavy inflation, huge government debt, unprecedented supply chain snarls, etc., why hasn’t the market fallen off a cliff.” The short answer is that the market is not the economy. A more nuanced answer is that most companies simply have more pricing power and consumers are more resilient to inflation than expected. So, companies are able to charge prices even higher than their cost increases and this has/is resulting in strong profits. In other words, we hear a lot of tales of woe about inflation, but we do not hear a lot of stories about companies shutting down operations because they are unable to pass on increased costs.
Another factor is that many of the biggest corporations are putting a floor in markets in a sense. For example, Bloomberg reported Saturday that the 10 largest stock buyback programs this year are 30% larger than they were a year ago. So, companies like AAPL, FB, GOOG, MSFT, CSCO, PG, CHTR, V, SBUX, and WMT are spending tens of billions of dollars to essentially prevent their stock prices from falling. In addition to those big boys, a large number of “smaller” companies had suspended their buybacks during 2020 and the first half of 2021, but they are also now using that saved money to protect their share prices again. As a result, well over $265 billion (a record, which broke the record set just the previous quarter) was spent on buyback programs in Q4-21. And those numbers are expected to rise again in Q1-22. The estimate is that 2021 saw a record near $900 billion in stock buybacks in the S&P500 members and more expected this year. So, simply put, it’s hard for prices to fall too far with massive buy orders sitting out there to absorb sell orders.
Overnight, the Asian markets were down across the board, but in varying degrees on the Russian soft invasion. Hong Kong (-2.69%), Japan (-1.71%), Taiwan (-1.38%), and South Korea (-1.35%) paced the losses. Thailand (-0.19%), New Zealand (-0.34%), and Malaysia (-0.36%) were the closest thing to gainers in the region. Quite interestingly, European markets are mixed on fairly modest moves at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.25%), DAX (-0.25%), and CAC (-0.02%) lead the region, but there are 5 green exchanges, and only Russia (-4.52%) is down hard on the Monday news. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down open (but significantly recovered from overnight lows). The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.38% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.942% and Oil (WTI) is the big winner on the geopolitical news, up 3.69% in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CNP, CFX, CBRL, CVI, EXPD, FLR, HD, HSBC, JELD, KBR, LPX, M, MDT, MIDD, NHYDY, TPX, BLD, TRU, VNTR, and WLK. Then after the close, A, ARGO, AGR, BTG, BWXT, CDNS, CZR, CWH, CSGP, FANG, ESI, JBT, MELI, MOS, NDSN, PANW, PSA, RXT, RRC, O, TDOC, TXRH, TOL, RIG, TA, and VRSK report.
So far this morning, HD, M, FLR, CNP, WLK, NXST, LPX, CFX, BLD, and CEQP have all reported beats on both lines. Meanwhile, MDT and KBR reported beats on earnings while missing on revenue. On the other side, JELD and TRU missed on earnings, but beat on revenue. However, HSBC, TPX, and VNTR all missed on both lines.
News of talks between the US Sec. of State and Russian Foreign Minister Russian, tentatively scheduled for next week have given European and US stocks a little help this morning. However, we have to remember there will be a long 3-day news cycle before US markets open again. So, while some may run with the potentially good news, be very careful joining that crowd. The truth is we don’t know what will happen or when. And frankly, with 150k Russian troops plus tens of thousands of “Ukrainian Separatist Militia” on the Ukrainian border or inside Eastern Ukraine, it would not take much for a mistake to turn into war. (Fighting is already in progress between Ukraine and Separatists.) So, the prudent course is to go into the weekend flat or hedged. Just keep fighting the urge to put on rose-colored glasses and trade like you’re making up time.
Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: Rick is back, but no trade ideas today til the turmoil settles a bit. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Index Technicals Suffer
Ahead of a three-day weekend filled with uncertainty, index technicals suffered more damage creating lower lows at price resistance and failing at or near their 200-day averages. Rising inflation, indications of a slowing economy, a hawkish Fed, and geopolitical issues have created a perfect storm of uncertainty. Markets hate uncertainty, and as we move toward a long weekend, it is understandable that the bulls face a difficult task in defending recent lows. So expect another day of volatility.
Asian markets finished the week mixed with Hong Kong leading the selling down 1.88%. However, this morning, European markets are trying to put on a brave face with modest gains as cautious traders weigh the Russia-Ukraine tensions. Ahead of a light day of earnings and economic reports, the U.S. futures point to a modest recovery from yesterday’s selling with an uncertain 3-day weekend ahead.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
As we wrap up the week, we have a light day on the earnings calendar with just 27 companies listed, several unconfirmed. Notable reports include DKNG, ABR, B, BLMN, DE, & PPL.
News & Technicals’
The Ukrainian government and Russian state-controlled media exchanged fresh accusations of ceasefire violations near the country’s eastern border on Friday. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned at the U.N. Security Council meeting on Thursday that Russia plans to “manufacture a pretext for its attack” on Ukraine. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard cautioned that inflation could become an even more severe problem without action on interest rates. “We’re at more risk now than we’ve been in a generation that this could get out of control,” he said during a panel talk at Columbia University. Bullard has called for a full percentage point in rate hikes by July. Roku’s revenue growth slowed to a lower rate than analysts had expected. However, the company said during the quarter that it would be able to keep YouTube and YouTube T.V. on its streaming service. Finally, the Senate passed a short-term government spending bill, sending it to President Joe Biden’s desk and preventing a government shutdown. The legislation will keep the government running through March 11. Lawmakers hope to reach a long-term spending agreement during those three weeks. Treasury Yields moved slightly lower in early Friday morning trading, with the 10-year dipping to 1.9685 and the 30-year falling to 2.2941%.
It has been a rough week for the index technicals, new lower highs created at price resistance, and failures at or near 200-day moving averages. Yesterday’s economic data continues to confirm a slowing economy as the Fed moves becomes more aggressive in fighting inflation. A combination that could easily trigger a recession as we head toward spring and summer. Add in the geopolitical tensions rising just before a 3-day weekend only intensifies market uncertainty. With a light day on earnings and only the Existing Home Sales report to inspire the bulls or bears, I suspect the sensitivity to the Ukrainian border news cycle will play a substantial role as the long weekend approaches. So plan your risk carefully because anything is possible.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
US-Russia Talks Set For Next Week Helps Mood
Markets gapped down Thursday on more Russia invasion news/fear. After an hour of follow-through, all 3 major indices ground sideways until early afternoon. At that point, we got the final wave downward before going out on a half-hour of sideways action. This left us with large black candles that have failed the T-line in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 2.13%, DIA lost 1.71%, and QQQ lost 2.97%. The VXX rose almost 12% to 22.96 and T2122 dropped all the way back down to 30.94 (in the lower end of the mid-range). 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.965% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.21% to $91.59/barrel, which is a bit odd if a Russian invasion is truly the main Oil market driver.
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Economic data for the day was a mixed bag but leaned to the bearish side again. January Building Permits came in a couple hundred thousand higher than expected, but January House Starts came in about 70,000 less than expected. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also came in 30k higher than was expected and the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in even worse than the expected terrible number at 16 (20 expected, 50 means expanding). To top it off, Fed Hawk Bullard, reiterated his calls for fast, aggressive, and continuing Fed action as he repeated his claims that the Fed has waited too long to tackle inflation and it could get out of control.
After the close Thursday, TDS, KEYS, QDEL, AL, RDFN, and EXEL all reported beats on both revenue and earnings. Meanwhile, USM and ROKU beat on earnings but missed on revenue. On the other side, DLR and VTR both missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.
So far this morning DKNG, BLMN, and DE have reported beats on both lines. However, PPL and ARNC beat on revenue but missed on earnings. On the other side, B beat on earnings but missed on revenue. There have been no reports yet today that missed on both lines.
Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed, but mostly in the red. Hong Kong (-1.88%), Australia (-1.02%), and New Zealand (-0.94%) led the region lower. However, Shanghai (+0.66%) and Shenzhen (+0.27%) managed to stay green. In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the green side at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (-0.13%), and CAC (+0.52%) are pacing gains with a few smaller exchanges as well as Russia (-0.88%) lagging. Fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains the main story in Europe in the early afternoon. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.48% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.62% open at this hour. 10-year bonds are up slightly to 1.974% and Oil (WTI) is down over 2% in early trading on news of scheduled tentative Russia-US talks next week.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Jan. Existing Home Sales (10 am), a Fed Monetary Policy Report (time TBA), and 3 Fed speakers (Waller at 10:45 am, Williams at 11 am, and Brainard at 1:30 pm). Also, remember that US Markets are closed on Monday. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARNC, BLMN, DE, DKNG, and PPL. There are no reports scheduled for after the close
News of talks between the US Sec. of State and Russian Foreign Minister Russian, tentatively scheduled for next week have given European and US stocks a little help this morning. However, we have to remember there will be a long 3-day news cycle before US markets open again. So, while some may run with the potentially good news, be very careful joining that crowd. The truth is we don’t know what will happen or when. And frankly, with 150k Russian troops plus tens of thousands of “Ukrainian Separatist Militia” on the Ukrainian border or inside Eastern Ukraine, it would not take much for a mistake to turn into war. (Fighting is already in progress between Ukraine and Separatists.) So, the prudent course is to go into the weekend flat or hedged. Just keep fighting the urge to put on rose-colored glasses and trade like you’re making up time.
Stick to your trading rules and manage the things that you can control. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops in the first place.) Remember that you don’t have to trade every day and you definitely don’t need to chase the premarket moves by trading early. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is on vacation this week). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Retail Sales Better than Expected
Wednesday traded like an opposite day with better than expected retail sales numbers bringing out the bears, and then the bulls went to work when the FOMC confirmed a more hawkish Fed ready to raise rates. However, par for the course in this down-trending volatile price action still has significant overhead resistance despite the recent relief rally. Expect more of the same today with a bevy of earnings reports, with economic data including housing starts, jobless claims, and the Philly Fed.
During the night, Asian markets closed mixed but mainly higher though gains were relatively modest. European markets traded mixed this morning, weighing the geopolitical tensions as Russia adds more troops to the Ukraine border. Ahead of a busy day of data, U.S. futures point to a lower open after a mixed after the bell reaction to tech earnings.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
We have another busy Thursday with nearly 200 companies listed on the earnings calendar. Notable reports include WMT, AFLYY, EADSY, AAWW, AN, BAX, BJRI, BRC, CIM, CHUY, ED, DLR, GPC, GMED, IDCC, KEYS, LBTYA, LKQ, MATX, MERC, OGN, PLTR, PK, POOL, RDFN, ROKU, SEE, SHAK, SWI, SO, RUN, SKT, TSEM, UEIC, WFRD, WST, AUY, & YETI.
News & Technicals’
Nvidia reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Datacenter sales rose 71%. Nvidia has boosted as cloud providers and enterprises turn to graphics processors the company makes for artificial intelligence applications. The U.S. government’s “dithering” has left the country “well behind” China in the race to build out 5G technology, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt said in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Schmidt and co-author Graham Allison, a Harvard professor, urged the Biden administration to make 5G a “national priority”; otherwise, “China will own the 5G future.” The authors said 5G development is key as applications could “advantage a country’s intelligence agencies and enhance its military capabilities.” Amazon and Visa agree to end the global dispute over credit card fees. The deal means Amazon customers in the U.K. can continue using Visa credit cards, as previously announced by the two companies. Amazon will also drop a 0.5% surcharge on Visa credit card transactions in Singapore and Australia, introduced last year. Amazon has been piling pressure on Visa to lower its fees, signaling growing frustration from retailers over the costs associated with major card networks. Treasury yields declined Thursday morning, with the 10-year falling to 2.0015% and the 30-year declining to 2.3211%.
Wednesday traded began with slightly more robust than expected retail sales, but the bears continued to apply pressure until the FOMC minutes confirmed rates are going up next month. The bulls took that as a reason to rally, recovering early losses closing the indexes essentially flat on the day. Tech earnings after the bell had some mixed reviews from investors with CSCO indicated higher at the open, but NVDA is indicated slightly lower despite its upbeat report. Geopolitical concerns continue to hang a dark cloud over the market, with NATO reporting that Russia has added more troops to their Ukraine border activities, keeping uncertainty high. Today we will turn our attention to housing numbers, jobless claims, and the Philly Fed numbers, along with another busy day of earnings data to keep the price volatility challenges. Also, keep an eye on the comments from Jame Bullard today as one of the most hawkish Fed members; his words could move the market at 11 AM eastern today. Although we have seen a slight relief in the selling, technically, not much has changed in the charts, so keep a close eye on the overhead resistance levels for entrenched bears.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
