U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase as investors aimed to regain momentum that had previously driven major averages to record highs. Market participants are currently debating whether this upward trend has further potential. Key economic indicators are on the horizon, with the October producer price index set for release on Thursday and the retail sales report due on Friday. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Dallas, Texas, which could provide further insights into the economic outlook.
European stocks traded higher as investors assessed the latest U.S. inflation data. Despite the overall positive movement, most sectors experienced a pullback, with tech stocks falling by 1.2%. In contrast, oil and gas stocks saw a gain of 1.3%. The markets are currently focused on reversing recent declines, with significant attention on upcoming data releases and corporate earnings reports.
Asia-Pacific markets experienced a general downturn, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading the losses, dropping by over 2% by the final hour of trading. This decline extended a multi-day losing streak, resulting in a 4% loss for the week as of Wednesday’s close. Mainland China’s CSI 300 also saw a significant drop of 1.73%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 0.48%. In contrast, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 emerged as a rare bright spot, gaining 0.37%. South Korea’s Kospi ended nearly flat with a marginal gain, whereas the Kosdaq Index declined by 1.17%.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include AAP, BILI, DIS, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, & ZK.
After the bell reports include AMAT, ESE, GLOB, MITK, & POST.
News & Technicals’
Disney reported its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, narrowly surpassing analyst estimates, driven by growth in its streaming services which bolstered the entertainment segment. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.14, slightly above the expected $1.10. Revenue also exceeded expectations, coming in at $22.57 billion compared to the anticipated $22.45 billion. Net income rose to $460 million, or 25 cents per share, up from $264 million, or 14 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. However, revenue for Disney’s sports segment, primarily ESPN, remained flat, with ESPN’s profit declining by 6%.
Cisco’s latest quarterly results exceeded expectations, leading the company to raise its full-year revenue target. Despite this positive development, revenue for the quarter ended October 26 dropped by 6% to $14.7 billion compared to the previous year. Net income also declined, falling to $2.71 billion, or 68 cents per share, from $3.64 billion, or 89 cents per share, in the same quarter last year. Additionally, networking revenue saw a significant decrease of 23%, reaching $6.75 billion, which was slightly below the $6.8 billion consensus estimate by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount.
On Thursday, Treasury yields remained relatively stable as investors kept a close watch on new economic data and a series of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. The 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly lower to 4.449%, while the 2-year Treasury yield also dipped to 4.282%. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to discuss the U.S. economic outlook in Dallas, Texas, later in the day. Additionally, remarks from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, and New York Fed President John Williams are anticipated, which could provide further insights into the economic landscape.
The bulls still want to celebrate the election working to regain momentum this morning. However, we still have a pending PPI report with a consensus estimate that suggests higher producer costs. Should the number come in hot, expect the bond yields and the dollar continue to gain strength. In that event watch for the possibility of a whipsaw. On the other hand if the number weakens expect the bullish celebration to continue with more record highs into the end of the week.
Wednesday saw the market open flattish and meander back and for the around the gap. SPY opened 0.08% higher, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower. As mentioned, after that open, all three major index ETFs meandered back and forth below and above that initial “gap” all day. This action gave us indecisive, Spinning Top or Doji-like candles in all three, which all also remain above their T-line (8ema). This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.
On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower. On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%. VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel. So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day. For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high. With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).
The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included October Core CPI (Month-on-Month), which came in exactly as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.3%). On an annualized basis, October Core CPI (Year-on-Year) also came in just as expected at +3.3% (versus a forecast and September value of +3.3%). At the same time, the headline October CPI (month-on-month) was also as anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.2%). On an annualized basis, October CPI (Year-on-Year) was +2.6% (versus a forecast of +2.6% and the September reading of +2.4%). Later, the October Federal Budget Balance showed a significantly higher than expected deficit of $257.0 billion (compared to the $226.4 billion forecast and far higher than the September $64.0 billion shortfall). Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a unexpected drawdown of 0.777 million barrels (versus a predicted 1-million-barrel increase and the previous week’s 3.132-million-barrel increase).
In Fed news, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told Bloomberg, “I’ve got confidence about that (inflation heading down toward 2%), but we need to wait.” He continued, “We’ve got another month or six weeks of data to analyze before we make any (more rate cut) decisions.” Later, St. Louis Fed President Musalem told a Memphis Economic conference that the Fed is in the “last mile” of the inflation fight and the FOMC can now afford to be deliberate. Musalem said, “In my baseline scenario, based on current information, I expect inflation to converge toward 2% over the medium term … but recent information suggests to me that the risk of inflation ceasing to converge toward 2%, or moving higher, has risen, while the risk of an unwelcome deterioration in the labor market has remained unchanged or possibly fallen.”
Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed growing confidence that inflation is headed back to 2%. Schmid said his confidence is “based in part on signs that both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months.” He continued, “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.” Speaking about the deficit, Schmid said, “As an optimist, my hope is that productivity growth can outrun both demographics and debt … But as a central banker, I will not let my enthusiasm get ahead of the data or my commitment to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.” (In other words, he basically ducked the question.) At the same time, Dallas Fed President Logan said, “I anticipate the FOMC will most likely need more rate cuts to finish the journey” (meaning bringing inflation down to 2%).
After the close, BZH, CSCO, HI, SARO, and TTEK reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AGRO and NU missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line. On the other side, BV, GPCR, and HP beat on revenue while missing on earnings.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red with four exchanges above break-even and eight below-water. Shenzhen (-2.83%) Hong Kong (-1.96%), and Shanghai (-1.73%) were by far the biggest movers. In Europe, with the exception of Athens (-0.3%) we see green across the board at midday. The CAC (+1.08%), DAX (+1.32%) and FTSE (+0.40%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning. DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.443% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.70% to $68.91 per barrel in early trading.
There is major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, and October PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed Chair Powell (3 p.m.) and Fed member Williams (4:15 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, and ZK. Then, after the close, AMAT, GLOB, and POST report.
In economic news later this week, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday BABA and SPB report.
So far this morning, BN, EXFT, JD, NTES, NICE, SIEGY, and have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, NOMD, SBH, DIS, and ZK all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BILI beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings. However, AAP missed on both the top and bottom lines.
With that background, markets seem tepid to modestly bullish and perhaps trying to put in a bottom to their three-day pullback. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly higher. Since that point they have put in small candles with SPY and QQQ printing small, Doji-like candles and DIA giving us a small, white, Marubozu candle. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trends remain bullish. In terms of over extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are stretched above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning. AMD (+0.99%) is the biggest price mover (on overnight news of a 4% global layoff). Meanwhile, TSLA (-0.47% on $280 million traded) is the leader in dollar-volume traded. (Again, this is the post-Trump win norm, but NVDA had been in that leader spot for 18 months prior to the election.)
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
U.S. stock futures were down as investors eagerly awaited the latest consumer price index data for clues on inflation trends. The major indices had already declined during Tuesday’s session, with the market taking a pause. According to Tom Hainlin, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, part of Tuesday’s market dip was due to profit-taking following strong post-election gains, while some of it was likely due to positioning ahead of the upcoming inflation and retail sales reports. This cautious sentiment reflects the market’s sensitivity to economic indicators and their potential impact on future monetary policy.
European stocks remained relatively flat, with notable movements in specific stocks. Just Eat Takeaway saw its shares surge by 20% following the announcement of a deal to sell its U.S. unit, Grubhub, to Wonder for $650 million. Siemens Energy also performed exceptionally well, with its shares skyrocketing by 19.1%. In contrast, ABN Amro’s shares fell by 1% after the Dutch bank reported a 9% decline in quarterly net profit. These mixed performances highlighted the varied responses of investors to corporate news and earnings reports.
Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a general decline as traders evaluated Japan’s latest corporate goods data. The data revealed that year-on-year producer price growth, or wholesale inflation, in October surged to 3.4%, marking the highest rate since July of the previous year. This economic indicator contributed to a downturn in major indices across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 1.66%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 2.64%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 decreased by 0.75%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.45%. The overall market sentiment was cautious as investors digested the implications of rising inflation on future economic performance.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include AFGC, ARCO, CGON, CURB, CYBR, DOLE, ENLT, GFF, INBX, JHX, LOAR, PSFE, RSKD, SSYS, TSEM, & UBS.
After the bell reports include BZH, BV, CSCO, DGII, DLO, HP, HI, IBTA, JJSF, KLIC, NVEI, PACS, SONO, & TTEK.
News & Technicals’
DirecTV’s proposed acquisition of Dish assets appears to be off the table after bondholders rejected a revised offer. The deal, which involved DirecTV acquiring Dish’s pay TV business for a nominal $1 and assuming approximately $10 billion in debt, now seems unlikely to proceed. There remains a slim chance of revival if Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen decides to negotiate, but this currently seems improbable. The rejection by bondholders underscores the challenges and complexities involved in such high-stakes corporate transactions.
Microsoft’s president and vice-chairman cautioned that the West should not underestimate China’s advancements in technology. Microsoft has maintained a presence in China since 1992, operating its largest research and development center outside the U.S. Recently, Huawei surprised the market by releasing a smartphone with download speeds indicative of 5G capabilities, despite U.S. tech sanctions. This development has fueled speculation about a significant chip breakthrough by Huawei, highlighting China’s potential to innovate and compete on the global tech stage.
Shares of Amgen declined as analysts scrutinized bone density loss data from an early-stage trial of its experimental weight loss injection, MariTide. While some analysts viewed the new data as a potential safety concern, others argued that the market reaction was exaggerated and emphasized the need for more data from a larger patient group. MariTide is a promising contender in the weight loss drug market, offering a monthly injection alternative to the weekly injections currently available from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. This development highlights the ongoing competition and innovation within the weight loss pharmaceutical sector.
Investors are eagerly anticipating the release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on Wednesday morning to gauge the rise in the costs of goods and services. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones predict a 0.2% increase for the month and a 2.6% year-over-year rise. The rate of price increases is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s decisions on whether to adjust interest rates. Additionally, this week’s economic calendar includes the producer price index data on Thursday and retail sales figures on Friday, both of which will provide further insights into the economic landscape.
Market sentiment and today’s price action will all be determined by the result of the Consumer Price Index report. If the number comes in weak, I suspect the market will continue its post-election celebration. However, should the number come in hot the profit taking that began yesterday could quickly accelerate, filling some gaps and testing areas of price support in the index charts. Keep in mind what ever happens we will quickly turn out attention toward Jobless Claims and the PPI numbers on Thursday.
Markets opened flat on Tuesday. DIA was the only one of the major index ETFs who’s open (+0.14%) was even worth noting. After that open, DIA ground sideways for 15 minutes before selling off for three hours, bouncing modestly for an hour and then selling modestly into the close. For its part, SPY traded sideways for 30 minutes, then followed DIA south, bouncing more strongly at 1 p.m. and then selling off modestly again at 2:45 p.m. Meanwhile, QQQ chopped sideways for an hour, sold off more modestly than its peer index ETFs until 1 p.m., rallying almost back to flat by 2:45 p.m. and then drifting lower. This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles in the SPY and QQQ (Spinning Top type). For its part, DIS printed a big, black, Bearish Engulfing candle. This happened on average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.
On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower. On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%. VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel. So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day. For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high. With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).
The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which fell a tick to 2.9% (down from September’s 3.0% reading).
In Fed news, Richmond Fed President Barkin indicated he feels the FOMC is in a good position. Barkin said, “A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.” He continued, “The Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.” Later, Fed Governor Waller urged the private sector to embrace payment system innovations like stablecoins, saying “(the FedNow real-time payment system) can bolster private sector efforts to link financial institutions in a decentralized and diverse banking system.” In talking about “synthetic dollars,” Waller said, “These assets could have a lot of potential benefits and eliminate inefficiencies in the financial system.” Even later, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he thinks the FOMC monetary policy is “In my judgment we are still at a modestly contractionary stance, but ultimately the economy will guide us, in terms of how far we are needing to go in cutting interest rates.”
After the close, CAE, CART, FIHL, FLUT, NATL, RKT, and SWKS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, DOX and OXY missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, LNW and SPOT beat on revenue but missed on earnings. However, PLUS and NGL missed on both the top and bottom line.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red side again. Six of the 11 exchanges were in the red as South Korea (-2.64%) and Japan (-1.66%) led the way lower. In Europe, we see an even weaker picture with just two of 14 bourses in the green at midday (although on much smaller moves than Asia). The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.14%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day ahead of CPI data. The DIA implies a -0.30% open, the SPY is implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.26% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.416% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $68.49 per barrel in early trading.
There is major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes October Core CPI and October CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), October Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (8:30 a.m.) and Williams (9:30 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, and KMDA. Then, after the close, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report.
In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet. We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams. Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.
So far this morning, HBM and JHX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, DOLE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.
With that background markets seem to be continuing Monday’s modest retreat. All three of the major index ETFs opened the premarket lower and have printed small black candles since then. QQQ has the largest of the black bodies in the early session. (Again, remember that this is before CPI data.) However, all three also remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain bullish. In terms of over extension, the premarket action has brough SPY, DIA, and QQQ back within a normal distance above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range. So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. (This small pullback is just what the doctor ordered for the health of a rally. With that said, we have to remember that every Bearish trend starts with a pullback.) In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. By far the biggest mover, both in terms of price change and dollar-volume traded is TSLA (+1.86% on $1.0 billion traded) which is a percent greater move than the next ticker (either direction). It is also almost four times the dollar-volume traded as NVDA (+0.25% on $261 million traded). This continued the massive change in these factors since the Trump win. (You will have to decided for yourself if this signals an end to AI exuberance or is just a “Trump will pay Musk back” anomaly.)
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Monday saw the market open higher. SPY gaps up 0.28%, DIA gapped up 0.40%, and QQQ gapped up 0.24%. From there, SPY meandered sideways in the gap the rest of the day. Meanwhile, after the open, DIA continued to rally for 30 minutes before trading sideways with a slight bearish trend and ending the day about half way back to its opening level. As for QQQ, after the open gap up, it immediately sold off for 30 minutes recrossing the opening gap in the first 15 minutes before meandering sideways below Friday’s close the rest of the day. This action gave us, gap-up black-bodied Hanging Man candles in both the SPY and QQQ. (Both printed new all-time highs and SPY did manage to print a new all-time high close.) At the same time, DIA gave us a gap-up, Shooting Star or Inverted Hammer type of candle that printed another all-time high and all-time high close. This happened on above-average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.
On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green with Financial Services (+1.72%) way out in front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Basic Materials (-0.95%) was again by far the biggest loser. At the same time, SPY gained 0.10%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ lost 0.06%. VXX fell slightly to close at 44.65 and T2122 rose back into the bottom of its overbought territory, closing at 83.16. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields rose slightly to 4.306% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.13% to close at $68.18 per barrel. So, Monday saw a divergent, if mostly sideways day among the three major index ETFs. It certainly felt a little toppy in nature.
There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.
After the close, GRAB reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, IAC beat on revenue while missing (massively) on earnings. On the other side, LYV missed on revenue while beating on earnings.
Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-2.84%), Taiwan (-2.33%), and Shanghai (-1.39%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape with region-wide losses at midday. The CAC (-1.31%), DAX (-0.93%), and FTSE (-0.98%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day. DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and QQQ implies a -0.07% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.361% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter of a percent to $68.21 per barrel in early trading.
There is major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.). We also hear from Fed members Waller (10 a.m.), Kashkari (2 p.m.), and Harker (5 p.m.). Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALIT, AZN, SID, SATS, HTZ, HD, IGT, MOS, ONON, PTVE, SE, SHOP, SGRY, TME, THS, and TSN. Then, after the close, AE, DOX, AHR, ARMN, CAE, PLUS, FIHL, FLUT, ICUI, CART, LNW, NATL, NGL, OXY, RXT, RKT, SWKS, SPOT, STNE, SU, and MODG report.
In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get October Core CPI, October CPI, EIS Short-Term Energy Outlook, October Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed Member Williams. On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet. We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams. Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, KMDA, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report. On Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.
So far this morning, AZN, HD, and SLVM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, THS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, ONON, SE, and TME beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, IGT and PTVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.
With that background markets seem tepid at these heights. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket modestly lower and have given us indecisive Doji-like candles since that start. However, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain very bullish. In terms of overextension, all three are stretched above their T-line (8ema) and the T2122 indicator is now in (the lower end of) its overbought territory. So, while there may be a bit more room to run, the market is in need of a pause or pullback for the health of the rally. With that said, we have to remember that markets can stay over-baked longer that any of us can remain solvent betting on a reversal. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning. INTC (-1.44%) leads the losses while NVDA (+0.41%) paces the gains. Once again, TSLA (-1.08%) is far-and-away the dollar-volume leader, having traded a very heavy $3.4 billion so far this morning…nine times as much as NVDA, which itself has traded 10 times as much as the third-place stock. (This is definitely a Trump win phenomenon.)
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Futures remained relatively stable after stocks closed at record highs on Tuesday, with only slight declines as Wall Street continued to evaluate which sectors to invest in amid a post-election rally that has propelled equities to unprecedented levels. Investors are keenly awaiting economic data on small businesses, set to be released in the morning. Additionally, they will be closely monitoring remarks from Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, throughout the day. Traders are also poised to analyze earnings reports from major companies like Home Depot and Shopify, which are expected to be released on Tuesday.
European markets saw a decline, primarily driven by a significant drop in mining stocks, which fell by 2.6%. In contrast, technology stocks managed a modest gain of 0.5%. Germany reported a 2.4% rise in inflation for October, as confirmed by the latest data from the country’s statistics office. Among the major indices, France’s CAC 40 slipped by 1.2%, while Britain’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX fell by 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.
Asia-Pacific markets experienced a downturn as investors adopted a cautious stance. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index led the declines with a significant drop of 2.76%, followed by South Korea’s Kospi, which fell by 1.94%. China’s CSI 300 also saw a decrease of 1.1%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped by 0.4%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 had a relatively minor decline, closing 0.13% lower.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include ALIT, ALMS, AZN, AVDL, CAMT, DAVA, EVGO, FA, GENI, HD, HTZ, HBM, HUYA, IAC, LEGN, LYV, MIRM, MOS, NMRA, NWN, NVAX, ONON, PTVE, PGY, PLL, PLUG, RGEN, ROIV, SRRK, SDGR, SE, FOUR, SHLS, SDHC, SPHR, SWTX, SHO, SGRY, SLVM, TH, TME, THS, TGI, TSN.
After the bell reports include DOX, AHR, AZTA, CAE, CNNE, CAVA, CHGG, CRNX, DHT, EVCM, GRAB, HPP, ICUI, CART, IAS, LNW, MARA, NTRA, NATL, NPCE, OXY, OUT, FNA, PAY, PRDO, PGNY, PRTA, PUBM, RXT, RPAY, RKLB, SDRL, SWKS, SOUN, SPOT, SU, TTGT, MODG, XENE, & ZI.
News & Technicals’
Home Depot reported quarterly earnings and revenue that surpassed analysts’ expectations, driven by increased sales from its acquisition of SRS Distribution, as well as a surge in demand for hurricane-related repairs and the impact of warmer-than-usual weather across much of the U.S. Despite these positive factors, the company noted that consumers are exercising caution following a period of elevated interest and mortgage rates.
On Tuesday, a Dutch court dismissed a landmark climate ruling against Shell, which had previously mandated the oil giant to significantly cut its global carbon emissions. This decision overturns the May 2021 ruling by The Hague district court that required Shell to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 45% from 2019 levels by 2030. The outcome represents a significant development in a precedent-setting case with potential far-reaching implications for future climate litigation.
U.S. Treasury yields saw a notable increase, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by over four basis points to 4.3550%. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to interest rate expectations, climbed by more than six basis points to 4.3149%. Investors are also closely watching key economic data set to be released throughout the week, including the NFIB Business Optimism Index on Tuesday, which will provide insights into the performance of small businesses in October.
Germany is preparing for a federal election in February, earlier than initially proposed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, following the collapse of his ruling coalition last week. A confidence vote is now scheduled for December 16, a crucial step before the early elections can proceed. This parliamentary vote is necessary for the chancellor to formally call for the election. According to sources within Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD), the federal election is set to take place on February 23.
The record highs continued Monday though we did see a little weakness, beginning to show up by the close of the day. With another light day on the economic calendar traders will look for inspiration in earnings reports. Bond yields continue to be problematic as markets grapple with the pending CPI and PPI reports as well as the changes the new administration will deliver. If some profit taking does begin be prepared for the possibility of some big point moves.
Markets gave us a mixed start to the day Friday. SPY opened 0.09% higher, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ opened 0.08% lower. We also saw a divergence from that point, at least early. SPY immediately began to rally and chased new highs right up to 2:45 p.m. From there, SPY saw profit-taking all the way into the close. At the same time, after the open, DIA sold for 10 minutes off from the open before joining SPY in a rally until 11:30 a.m. It then chopped sideways until 2 p.m. before rallying again to the highs at 2:45p.m. At that point, DIA also took profits into the close. For its part, QQQ sold off a quarter percent after the open, chopping around until 11 a.m. when it followed the larger-cap index ETFs in a rally that lasted until 1:45 p.m. Then QQQ ground sideways for an hour only to selloff back to Thursday’s close and grind sideways just above that the rest of the day.
This action gave us, white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs. The DIA gave us a gap-up Spinning Top candle that registered as a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. SPY printed a gap-up, white-bodied candle with significant upper wick. It came within 36 cents of the $600 level while delivering a new all-time high and all-time high close. Meanwhile, QQQ gave us a gap-down, white-bodied Spinning Top that also printed a new all-time high and all-time high close. For the week, QQQ gained 5.48%, SPY gained 4.76%, and DIA gained 4.69%.
On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green with Utilities (+1.21%) way out in front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Basic Materials (-1.10%) lagging way, way behind all other sectors (by more than 1%). At the same time, SPY gained 0.43%, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ gained 0.12%. VXX dropped another 0.71% to close at 44.77 and T2122 fell back to just outside of its overbought territory, closing at 77.27. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to a still high 4.302% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.63% to close at $70.46 per barrel. So, Friday saw more of the Bulls being in control as the election day and post-election rally continued.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Preliminary Michigan Nov. Consumer Sentiment, which came in up to 73.0 (compared to a forecast of 71.0 and a October reading of 70.5). At the same time, Preliminary Michigan November Consumer Expectations were also up to 78.5 (versus a 74.1 October value). Meanwhile, the Preliminary Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations fell a tick to 2.6% (compared to a forecast and October reading of 2.7%). Finally, Preliminary Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations were up a tick to 3.1% (versus a forecast and October value of 3.0%).
After the close, PBR reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.
In stock news, on Friday, PNC announced plans to expand by adding 100 new bank branches with an investment of $500 million. Later, BA announced it plans to repay the employees it furloughed during the recent strike for the wages they lost. However, BA still plans to proceed with the 10% cut in its global workforce (17,000 jobs worldwide). At the same time, Reuters reported that STLA and its Chinese partner Leapmotor have scrapped plans to build a second electric vehicle model at the STLA plant in Poland. Instead, the joint venture is considering making that second model a STLA plant in Germany. Later, Bloomberg reported that BA is considering a sale of its Jeppesen navigation business for $6 billion. Reportedly, potential suitors include private equity firms, which have expressed interest in that unit. At the same time, Reuters reported exclusively that BA and SPR are very close to reaching a funding agreement that would give SPR a lifeline of cash. (The deal will reportedly be announced as soon as this weekend. The exact details on amounts were not disclosed.)
Elsewhere, TSLA closed above the $1 trillion market cap level for the first time. This comes after a massive 29% gain for the week on speculation the Trump administration will pay back CEO Musk for hi support. After the close, BNKG announced it expects to cut jobs as part of a broader cost-cutting program. (No specifics were announced.) At the same time, ENPH said it would be cutting about 500 employees and contractors (about 17% of the workforce). Later, BROS CEO Barone told CNBC that it plans to open 160 new coffee shops in 2025. (BROS currently has 950 locations.) Meanwhile, CRM announced it needs to hire more than 1,000 workers to help it sell its generative AI agent product.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, China approved a $1.4 trillion plan to bolster its economy by selling bonds and allowing local governments to refinance their massive, “hidden” (off books) debt loads. The theory is that this will free up resources for the local governments to spend elsewhere, thus stimulating the economy. At the same time, a US District Judge in CA ruled that META CEO Zuckerberg is not personally liable in the 25 lawsuits alleging that his company purposefully addicted children to social media. However, the cases against META itself (brought both by many States Attorney General and the families of alleged victims) were allowed to proceed. Later, TM “announced” that CA-led (but now in place in 12 states and the District of Columbia) electrical vehicle mandates that begin being phased in next year are “impossible to meet.” TM went on to say, if the mandates are not changed, US customers will see fewer car choices in many states.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 114k vehicles in the US over airbag concerns. Later, TPR announced it has paused integration of CPRI while it appeals a US court decision to clock the $8.5 billion acquisition. At the same time, a US federal appeals court ruled that WBD’s CNN unit must face a now-revived defamation lawsuit from “Project Veritas” which CNN had reported was responsible for promoting disinformation and doxing. Later, the CA Public Utilities Commission increased reporting requirements on autonomous vehicle “incidents” (now at a trip level) for collisions, traffic citations, and stoppage events (when the self-driven vehicles get stuck). GM, GOOGL, and TSLA are the companies immediately impacted.
Meanwhile, AAL lost its appeal of the US Justice Dept. decision to block the airline’s partnership with JBLU. The US 1st District Court of Appeals three judge panel ruled unanimously that the lower court judge’s decision was correct in siding with the Justice Dept. and FTC. (However, this may be a non-event as the Trump administration is widely expected to be more corporate-friendly, including in terms of mergers and acquisitions. So, the partnership could be floated again after January.)
In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the New York Times reported sources tell it the new Trump administration is preparing to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and also shrink the size of some national parks and monuments to open up land for the oil industry to drill. (The US is already the world’s largest oil producer, but one campaign mantra of Republicans was “drill baby drill.”) In other oil news, the Dept. of Energy announced Friday that it had purchased its last batch of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with a contract to buy another 2.4 million barrels for delivery in April through May. (This is the final batch because the Republican House rescinded about $2.05 billion of the funds the previous Democratic House had earmarked to replenish the reserve.) So, 180 million barrels was released from the reserve at a sale price of $95/barrel. Then the Dept. of Energy has replenished 59 million barrels at an average cost of $76/barrel, netting about $3.5 billion in profit but leaving the reserve 121 million barrels short of full capacity but also with $20.5 billion more money in hand and presumably falling oil prices under the new administration should they decide to complete the replenishment. Elsewhere, MCO said Friday that the risks to US fiscal health increased after the election of Trump. (However, this is based on an assumption that Trump will actually implement the policies he promised during the campaign. This includes corporate and personal tax cuts, across the board import tariffs, and deporting a significant chunk of the US labor force. That is far from certain as Trump isn’t known for keeping promises.)
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with just four of the 12 exchanges above break-even. Shenzhen (+2.03%) was by far the biggest gainer while Hong Kong (-1.45%) and South Korea (-1.15%) paced the losses. However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday Monday. The CAC (+1.17%), DAX (+1.37%), and FTSE (+0l.75%) lead the region high on broad-based gains in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward more gains. The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bonds are down to 4.306% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.85% to $69.08 per barrel in early trading.
There is major economic news scheduled for Monday due to Veteran’s Day. US Bond markets are closed for the day, but stock markets are open as usual. Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARMK and ICL. Then, after the close, GRAB, IAC, LYV, and TALO report.
In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations are reported. We also hear from Fed members Waller, Kashkari, and Harker. Then Wednesday, we get October Core CPI, October CPI, EIS Short-Term Energy Outlook, October Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed Member Williams. On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet. We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams. Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ALIT, AZN, SID, SATS, HTZ, HD, IGT, MOS, ONON, PTVE, SE, SHOP, SGRY, TME, THS, TSN, AE, DOX, AHR, ARMN, CAE, PLUS, FIHL, FLUT, ICUI, CART, LNW, NATL, NGL, OXY, RXT, RKT, SWKS, SPOT, STNE, SU, and MODG. Then Wednesday, ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, KMDA, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report. On Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.
So far this morning, ICL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, ARMK missed on revenue while reporting in-line on earnings.
With that background, it looks like the market is bullish again early Monday. All three major index ETFs made modest gaps higher to start the premarket. Since then, they have all followed-through with white-body candles so far in the early session. SPY, DIA, and QQQ all sit at new all-time highs again as we await the opening bell. Obviously, all three being far above their T-lines (8ema), the short-term trend is very bullish. The mid-term trend is now also very bullish and the longer-term trend remains strongly Bullish in all three as it has been for years. However, with regard to extension, all three major index ETFs are extended far above their T-line while the T2122 indicator remains just outside the bottom of its overbought territory. So, the market is stretched, but theoretically still has some room to push even higher. (Just remember that markets can remain too far extended longer than we can stay solvent betting on the reversal.) At the very least, we can say the Bulls have momentum but are in need of at least a rest, if not pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning with TSLA (7.09%) far out in front of the rest on what presumably is more of the “Trump paying back Musk” trade. INTC (-0.61%) is by far the weakest of the 10. In terms of trading volume, TSLA has traded five times more than NVDA (+0.70%), which is usually the dollar-volume leader. (That situation has been the new normal under the post-Trump win market, but is exactly the opposite of the “AI is the new thing” trade of the last 18 months.) Finally, do not forget that it’s Veteran’s Day, with Bond markets closed, but not a stock market holiday.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Stock futures rose on Monday as Wall Street aimed to extend last week’s impressive rally to new record highs. This follows a remarkable week for U.S. stocks, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closing at all-time highs. The Dow and S&P 500 had their strongest weeks in about a year, with the Dow briefly surpassing 44,000 for the first time. While no significant economic data is expected on Monday, investors are eagerly anticipating inflation reports due later in the week. Additionally, companies like Live Nation, the parent of Ticketmaster, and Aramark, a food and facility service provider, are set to report their earnings on Monday.
European stocks opened the week on a positive note, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index trading higher on Monday. This uptick comes as investors brace for a busy week filled with key economic data releases, including inflation figures from Germany and the U.S., as well as GDP data from the U.K. Leading the gains were construction and materials stocks, which rose by over 1.8%. Despite this positive start, it’s worth noting that the benchmark index recorded its third consecutive weekly loss by the end of last week, reflecting ongoing market volatility.
Asia-Pacific markets experienced a downturn on Monday following China’s latest stimulus measures, which failed to meet expectations and raised concerns about the recovery of the world’s second-largest economy. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 showed a slight increase, closing at 39,533.32, while the broader Topix index dipped by 0.09% to 2,739.68. In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index saw a significant decline of 1.62%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped by 1.15%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell by 0.43%. This mixed performance highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the region’s markets.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include ARMK, & MNDY. After the bell reports include AROC, AGO, JRVR. KYTX, LAZR, NVRO, TALO, & ZETA.
News & Technicals’
In a recent filing with a Delaware court, FTX highlighted a 2021 transaction where Binance, along with its CEO Changpeng Zhao and others, divested their investment in FTX. This involved selling a 20% stake in FTX and an 18.4% stake in its U.S.-based entity, West Realm Shires, back to the company. This litigation represents the latest escalation in the ongoing tensions between two of the largest players in the cryptocurrency market, following the dramatic collapse of FTX that sent shockwaves through the industry.
In a research note last week, Citi strategists pointed out that cryptocurrency remains one of the “few Trump trades that has yet to retrace.” During his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump made numerous promises to the crypto industry, including a bold pledge to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet.” Looking forward, some analysts are optimistic about the continued rise of cryptocurrencies, with several predicting that bitcoin could reach the $100,000 milestone by the end of the year.
Last month, policymakers introduced new subsidies and tax breaks aimed at supporting households with children under the age of three. However, analysts have pointed out that these measures primarily benefit existing families rather than incentivizing the formation of new ones. Additionally, the success of these policies heavily depends on the capacity of local governments to effectively implement them. This comes at a time when the United Nations has projected a significant demographic shift for China, predicting that the country, currently the second most populous in the world, could see its population decline by more than half by 2100, marking the steepest drop of any nation.
Thought the impressive rally continues this morning with another gap up open keep in mind that the banks and bond markets are closed today so choppy conditions would not be a surprise after the open. The IWM is the only index not at record highs and there appears to be concerted efforts to push toward that goal this morning. That said, the parabolic nature of the current rally also warrants a bit of caution not to case already extended stocks and be watching for a profit-taking pullback that could begin at any time.
On Thursday, markets opened higher again. SPY gapped up 0.35%, DIA opened 0.10% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.57%. From there, SPY and QQQ followed-through with a rally that lasted until 12:50 p.m. At that point, both had an afternoon rest before QQQ began to rally again at 2 p.m. and SPY followed at about 2:45 p.m. However, both SPY and QQQ also took profits the last 30 minutes of the day. At the same time, after its open, DIA just meandered sideways around that opening gap all day long. This action gave us gap-up white bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a modestly gap-up Doji in the DIA. SPY and QQQ did have smaller upper wicks on large white bodies. All three major index ETFs are stretched above their T-line (8ema) now. This happened on above-average volume in the DIA, average volume in the QQQ, and below-average volume in the SPY.
On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green with Technology (+2.08%) way, way out front leading the gainers higher. On the other side, Financial Services (-1.26%) and Communication Services (-1.07%) lagged far behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.77%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ gained 1.58%. VXX dropped another 3.53% to close at 45.09 and T2122 fell but remained just inside of its overbought territory, closing at 80.80. Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell sharply to a still high 4.330% while Oil (WTI) rose 0.50% to close at $72.05 per barrel. So, the day saw follow-through (especially in the tech area) to Wednesday’s post-election spike. The mega-cap DIA was torn between big profit-taking among financials and the pops from INTC (which is soon going bye-bye from that index), AMZN, AAPL, and MSFT. Among the market’s big dogs TSLA (+2.90%), led NVDA (+2.25%) in dollar-volume traded although both were over $30 billion and less than $35 billion. So, it was a lot closer than it normally is in terms of trading. It is also worth noting that SPY, DIA, and QQQ all printed another new all-time high and another new all-time high close.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which were up slightly but also slightly better than expected at 221k (compared to a forecast of 223k and a prior week reading of 218k). On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims came in higher than expected at 1,892k (versus a 1,880k forecast and the prior week’s 1,853k value). At the same time, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity (Qtr.-on-Qtr.) was up but not as strong as predicted at +2.2% (compared to a +2.6% forecast and a Q2 reading of +2.1%). Meanwhile, the Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs were both down sharply but still far higher than anticipated at +1.9% (versus a forecast of +1.1% and a Q2 reading of +2.4%). Later, Sept. Consumer Credit came in DRAMATICALLY lower than predicted at $6.00 billion (less than half of the $12.20 billion forecast and down from August’s $7.64 billion number). Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed another decline, falling $19 billion on the week down to $6.994 trillion.
Prior to the Fed announcements, the ever attention-needy Trump camp leaked to CNN that the ex-President “would likely allow” the FOMC Chairman to serve out the rest of his term rather than firing him. During his Press Conference, Fed Chair Powell said he gave one-word “No” answers indicating he would not resign, even if asked, and also that Presidents do not have the legal authority to fire a Fed Chairman. (However, it is worth noting that Chair Powell’s term ends in 2026.)
In Fed news, on Thursday, the Fed Interest Rate Decision was to cut rates 0.25% as expected. This reduces the Fed Funds rate to 4.75% – 5.00%. The vote for this cut was unanimous. In its statement, the FOMC said, “The economy has continued to expand at a solid pace,” going on to say “Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.” It is also worth noting that the FOMC removed a line from the September statement which had said the committee had “gained greater confidence that inflation was moving toward its 2% target.” (This may reflect the reasoning for, or result from the decision to, cut only a quarter point instead of the previous half percent cut.) The statement summation was, “The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.” Regarding labor markets, the statement said, “(labor market) conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.” (This was a change from language noting a slowing labor market in September.)
In other news from the Fed Chair press conference, Powell said “In the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions.” He continued to be pestered by questions about what a new Trump administration means for Fed policy, answering that, “We don’t guess, speculate, and we don’t assume what future policy choices will be” (going on to state the Fed boilerplate “data driven” approach). This press focus on Trump and what Trump means for the economy led to a shortened press conference.
After the close, AFRM, AKAM, AMN, ANET, AXON, CIVI, ED, DBX, DXC, FTNT, G, PODD, MTD, MSI, NWSA, OPEN, OVV, PINS, QDEL, REZI, RNG, TOST, and TTD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CPAY, EOG, and EXPE missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, AL, ABNB, AMRC, BHF, CPRI, EXPI, LGFA, and SOLV beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, AGL, SQ, DKNG, EVH, MNST, RIVN, and RUN missed on both the top and bottom lines.
In stock news, on Thursday, Mercury Research reported that INTC’s share of the notebook, desktop, and server market segments is the lowest since 2006. The report said that AMD and ARM were the competitors picking up the lost share. (Still, it is worth noting that INTC continues to have a 66% in the desktop, 69% in the notebook, and a 70% share in the server space.) Later, USM announced it has agreed to sell some of its spectrum licenses to T for $1 billion. At the same time, DUK announced that it expects to see between $2.4 billion and $2.9 billion in costs to restore facilities damaged by Hurricanes Debby, Milton, and Helene. Later, GM announced it is ending production of Cadillac XT4 SUVs as the company shifts more toward electric vehicles. After the close, Bloomberg reported that BLK is in talks with $70 billion hedge fund Millenium Mgmt. over purchasing a stake in the private fund.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 114k vehicles in the US over airbag concerns. Later, TPR announced it has paused integration of CPRI while it appeals a US court decision to clock the $8.5 billion acquisition. At the same time, a US federal appeals court ruled that WBD’s CNN unit must face a now-revived defamation lawsuit from “Project Veritas” which CNN had reported was responsible for promoting disinformation and doxing. Later, the CA Public Utilities Commission increased reporting requirements on autonomous vehicle “incidents” (now at a trip level) for collisions, traffic citations, and stoppage events (when the self-driven vehicles get stuck). GM, GOOGL, and TSLA are the companies immediately impacted.
In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, the Bank of England also cut its based rate by 25 basis-points to 4.75%. Elsewhere in Europe, German Chancellor Scholz is now facing increasing pressure from business groups (and opposition parties) to call new elections after the collapse of its three-way coalition. Back in the US, after the Fed rate cut, the Fed Funds Futures market is showing that trades are indicating a 74.5% probability of another quarter-point cut in December. The other 25.5% probability foresees no cut or increase in December.
In Middle-East War news, on Thursday, the IDF announced it expanded its operations in Northern Gaz, claiming that Hamas has regrouped. In addition, Israeli strikes in that area killed dozens Thursday, including 27 in one airstrike on a multi-story building in a refugee camp. Elsewhere, the Gaza Ministry of Health reported nearly 44k Palestinians have been killed and another 103k injured since Israel’s responses to the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack began.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five of the 12 exchanges in green and the other seven below break-even. Hong Kong (-1.07%) was well out in front of the other losers while New Zealand (-1.50%) and Singapore (+1.39%) were well in front of the other gainers. In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with nine of the 14 bourses showing red at midday. The CAC (-0.64%), DAX (-0.60%), and FTSE (-0.78%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day. DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying a -0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.31% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.308% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.24% to $71.46 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday brings Michigan November Consumer Sentiment, Michigan November Consumer Expectations, Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations and Sept. Retail Inventories (all at 10 a.m.). We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman (11 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADNT, WMS, ATSG, AMCX, AXL, AMRX, BAX, BLMN, BEPC, BEP, CLMT, CNH, ERJ, FLO, FLR, FTRE, GLP, GTN, IEP, KOP, LAMR, NRG, PAA, PAGP, RBA, SONY, TIXT, and PARAA. Then, after the close, CEPU reports.
So far this morning, ADNT, AMRX, BAX, ERJ, PARAA, and TIXT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, BLMN, FLO, and SONY missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, CLMT, FTRE, IEP, and NRG beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, WMS, FLR, GTN, and LAMR missed on both the top and bottom lines.
With that background, it looks like the market is basically undecided so far in the premarket. SPY and QQQ did gap modestly higher to start the early session, but have printed black-bodied candles since that point and are back to basically flat. Meanwhile, DIA started premarket a bit lower, and has printed a small white-body candle to also climb back to basically break-even from Thursday’s close. With all three being far above their T-lines (8ema), the short-term trend is very bullish. The mid-term trend has also reversed since the surprise election result and is now bullish and the longer-term trend remains strongly Bullish in all three. Basically, the only thing you need to know is that all three major index ETFs now sit at all-time highs. With regard to extension, all three major index ETFs are extended far above their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator remains just inside the bottom of its overbought territory. So, the market is stretched, but theoretically still has some room to push even higher. At the very least, we can say the Bulls have the momentum but are in need of at least a rest. (Just remember that markets can remain too far extended longer than we can stay solvent betting on the reversal.) With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning with only AAPL (+0.10%) clinging to green territory. Meanwhile, INTC (-0.91%) leads the pack lower after leading the gains Thursday. In terms of trading volume, NVDA (-0.07%) and TSLA (-0.03%) are neck-and-neck in terms of dollar-volume traded and both have traded 12 or more times as much as the next closest stock. However, it is a lighter volume trading premarket than usual. Finally, do not forget that it’s Friday…pay day. So take some money off the table to pay yourself and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle. (Happy Birthday on Sunday to my fellow Marines and don’t forget Monday is Veteran’s Day, but not a market holiday.)
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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