Stocks gapped modestly lower Tuesday. At that point, both the large-cap indices immediately filled the gap before joining QQQ in an all-day selloff that closed just up off the lows. In the process, all 3 major indices gave back all of Monday’s gains as well as falling through their respective T-lines.  All 3 printed black candles.  On the day, SPY lost 1.26%, DIA lost 0.83%, and QQQ lost 2.22%.  The VXX gained 1.5% to 24.81 and T2122 fell all the way back to 32.34, still in the mid-range but approaching the lower end of the range.  10-year bond yields spiked higher to 2.552%, which allowed them to get the “2s vs 10s” out of inversion, but the “5s vs. 30s” still remains inverted.  Oil (WTI) fell 2.15% to $101.06/barrel. 

The main story driving markets Tuesday was Minneapolis Fed President (and Vice-Chair nominee) Lael Brainard (normally a dove who favors loose FOMC policy) spooking markets mid-day when said she expects the Fed to start reducing its balance sheet in May.  What really gave the bears strength was that she said she foresees the FOMC doing so at “a rapid pace.”  She also said that rate hikes may come at a more aggressive pace than the 0.25% increments the Fed did in March and has been normal.  Later in the day, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (also a dove) told a different group that rates are going higher and said she does not think this will cause a recession. This news and hawkish tone from two of the FOMC’s doves raised fears among investors. this continues to scare markets this morning as futures bets are now pricing in half percent hikes at several Fed meetings over the remainder of the year.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, President Biden, the EU, and G7 are set to announce another round of coordinated sanctions on Russia in response to the recently found war crimes.  This round will include targeting more Russian Banks, Kremlin officials, and their family members.  A ban on new investment in Russian state-owned firms will also be included.  Most importantly, the EC will ban $4.3 billion of Russian coal in phases. This will be the first real hit to Russia’s most important sector, Energy. In fact, early this morning European Council President Von der Leyen said she expects eventual sanctions directly on Russian oil and gas imports to Europe.

Spiking rates continue to crush mortgage demand.  The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 4.80% to 4.90% during the week.  They even went above 5% on Tuesday, a first since 2018.  This caused refinance loan applications to fall another 10% week on week, while new home purchase applications fell 3%.  Overall, mortgage demand is down 40% from one year ago.

Overnight, the Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Only Malaysia (+0.50%) managed any real gain.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-1.87%), Japan (-1.58%), and South Korea (-0.88%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the lone, minor exception of Russia (+0.20%) stocks are red across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.33%) lags again, but the DAX (-1.69%) and CAC (-1.88%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap lower at the open.  The DIA implies a -0.57% open, the SPY is implying a -0.81% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.35% open to start the day.  10-year bond yields are spiking again to 2.633% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.35% to $103.32 in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and FOMC Meeting Minutes (2 pm).  There will also be a Fed speaker (Harker at 9:30 am).  The only major earnings reports scheduled for the day are RPM, SCHN, and GBX before the open as well as LEVI after the close. 

The words of two Fed doves gave markets a scare Tuesday and apparently, markets came to realize this was not something we should shake off overnight. So, we are looking for a gap down after yesterday/s all-day reversal of Monday. Again we have basically no market-moving news scheduled and basically no earnings which might drive markets. So, traders’ eyes will continue to focus on interest rates, the fear of recession, and the talking heads (fund managers) are likely to promote the idea that the Fed should not do half-percent raises. Volatility still remains a concern, but the very short-term trend is back in control of the bears. Position yourself accordingly.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ZBH, DG, GSK, DRE, JNJ, ALL, IP, GILD, ABBV, NWL, FMC, WFC, AEO, STX, DISCA, COF, SYF, PATH, AIG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened relatively flat on Monday.  However, at that point, stocks went on a slow, steady, all-day rally.  The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all closed very near their highs.  This gave us a definite Morning Star signal in the QQQ and 3-candle patterns you could at least say were “Morning Star-like” in the SPY and DIA.  With that said, the QQQ sits right at it 200sma and the DIA just below that major average.  On the day, SPY gained 0.88%, DIA (the weakest of the trio today) gained 0.35%, and QQQ gained a strong 2.06%.  It is worth noting that today’s action took place on volumes that were less than half the normal average across all 3 major indices.  The VXX fell 2.4% to 24.43 and T2122 climbed just inside the overbought territory at 83.24.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.41% and Oil (WTI) spiked yet again by 4.4% to $103.64/barrel.

TWTR (+27.12%) had its best day since the company’s IPO in November 2013.  This happened (mostly on a gap higher) as an SEC filing revealed that Elon Musk had taken a 9.2% passive position in the stock.  That position makes him the largest shareholder, but represents less than 1% of his wealth.  This, plus the fact that Musk has said he is considering creating his own social media platform has led analysts to believe he will increase his stake in TWTR and eventually take a more active role in the running of the company.  Interestingly, Musk seems to be picking another fight with the SEC. His disclosure came 20 days after Musk accumulated his position and that is a violation of SEC rules requiring large passive positions to be disclosed in 10 days or less.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The 2-year versus 10-year bond yields inverted again Monday.  This means that the 2-year bond pays a higher rate than the 10-year, which is not normal and implies there is greater risk in the short term.  Every recession since 1950 has been preceded by such an inversion, although the lag time can be as long as 2 years.  There was also one “false positive” where there was an inversion, but no recession followed.

Regarding the Russian invasion, the EU will propose a ban on Russian coal imports as part of its “post war crime” round of sanctions. French President Macron also proposed sanctions against Russian oil.  However, these will both be very difficult proposals to get passed since Russia supplies 70% of the EU’s coal and 30% of the EU’s oil. Germany is particularly dependent on Russia for energy.  Meanwhile, the US is also preparing another round of sanctions, which is said to include prohibiting Russia from paying its debt payments in US Dollars through American banks.  This will just make it harder for Russia to avoid defaulting on loans.

XOM disclosed Monday that they expect to report record profits on April 29.  This comes as oil prices have soared and padded the company’s bottom line by at least $2.3 billion for the quarter.  However, the company said they also expect to write down its $4 billion investment for a Russian drilling project that the company is in the process of discontinuing as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  Executives from XOM, CVX, BP, DVN, SHEL, and PXD have all been called to testify before Congress about price gouging on Wednesday.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed but leaned more to the upside.  Hong Kong (+2.10%) was an outlier to the upside, but Shanghai (+0.94%), Shenzhen (+0.91%), and Singapore (+0.82%) led the region higher.  AT the same time, India (-0.53%) and Taiwan (-0.38%) paced the losers.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the downside at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.10%) is an outlier, but the DAX (-0.56%), and CAC (-1.67%) are typical to the downside.  Russia (-4.68%) is, of course, also an outlier.  Gainers include Denmark (+1.60%) and Portugal (+1.27%).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.28% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.30% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up strongly again to 2.463% and oil (WTI) is up nearly another percent in early trading this morning.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday includes Imports/Exports and Feb. Trade Balance (both at 8:30 am), March Services PMI (9:45 am), March ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Kashkari at 10 am, Brainard at 10:05 am, and Williams at 2 pm.   The only major earnings report scheduled for the day is AYI before the open. 

Premarket action seems to indicate a rest after Monday’s tech-led rally. Again we have minimal impactful news and basically no earnings which might drive markets. Eyes will continue to focus on interest rate inversions and the talking heads (fund managers) are likely to promote the idea that the Fed should not do half-percent raises with the dual pressures of inflation and the war in Ukraine hanging over the economy. Volatility still remains a concern, but the trend is definitely still bullish and yesterday’s action (Morning Star signals on small pullbacks in a strong trend) implies that we will see some follow-through, although not necessarily today. So, all traders can do is focus on the chart and be prepared for volatility-caused short-term pain.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GSK, CVLT, PYPL, MRO, DG, FB, BE, TWLO, AAPL, MSFT, APA, DKNG, PINS, CLF, MTTR, CLOV You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a modest gap higher on Friday after the March Payrolls report came in with fewer jobs added than expected.  However, it makes the 11^th straight month of more than 400k jobs added, the participation rate is essentially where it was pre-pandemic, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%.  After the open stocks meandered their way back down to the lows at about 1:30 pm before an afternoon rally took all 3 major indices back up off the lows.  This left us with black Hammer-type candles in all 3, although you could make a strong argument for a Doji in the DIA.  All 3 are close to their T-lines as of the close, after testing that level.  On the day, SPY gained 0.28%, DIA gained 0.34%, and QQQ lost 0.20%.  The VXX fell 2.6% to 25.03 and T2122 climbed back just outside the overbought territory to 75.53.  10-year bond yield retreated during the day but still closed up at 2.371%.  It is worth noting that both the 2s vs 10s and 5s vs 30s bond yields are inverted, which is broadly seen as an indicator that there will be a future recession. Oil (WTI) fell seven-tenths of a percent to $99.56/barrel as the UK followed President Biden’s example and announced they will be releasing oil from their strategic reserves as well.

On Friday, the Labor Relations Board announced that Staten Island NY AMZN workers voted in favor of a union (with not enough disputed votes to flip the vote).  The re-vote in Bessemer AL is still undecided with the company ahead in the voting, but over 400 votes now going to a ballot dispute process. Meanwhile, in Congress, the House voted to decriminalize marijuana nationally, expunge marijuana conviction records, and levy a tax on marijuana sales (starting at 5% and eventually moving to 8%).  This sends the bill to the Senate where passage will be more difficult to get passed.  Elsewhere, on Saturday TSLA announced that they had delivered a record 310k cars during Q1.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

TWTR shares spiked as much as 30% in premarket trading after a 13G public filing revealed that Elon Musk has acquired a 9.2% stake in the company.  That purchase makes him the largest outside shareholder in the company.  However, this purchase was classified as a “passive stake” in the company.  Nonetheless, shares are spiking at the prospect of him buying more or taking an active role.  His purchase comes less than two weeks after Musk criticized the company over its acceptable speech policies and then conducted a TWTR poll on whether the company adheres to free speech principles and what should be done about it.

On the Russian invasion story, over the weekend it was announced by both sides that the negotiations have progressed to a point where a meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky makes sense.  This meeting will take place in Turkey in the unspecified not-too-distant future.  However, then Sunday, Russia announced that negotiations have not arrived at that point and their original positions still stand.  So, this is either negotiating tactics or disarray between the Russian negotiation team and the Kremlin.  Meanwhile, several mass graves and evidence of Russian war crimes emerged in liberated regions over the weekend.  On Sunday the EU warned they are likely to levy additional sanctions over those crimes.  However, the sanction threat again stops short of blocking ALL Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system or stopping the flow of Russian Gas and Oil to Europe

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  India (+2.17%), Hong Kong (+2.10%), and Shanghai (+0.91%) led the region higher while Taiwan (-0.38%) and New Zealand (-0.30%) were the most appreciable losers.  In Europe, stocks are leaning to the upside at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (+0.16%), and CAC (+0.17%) are lagging, but as always far exceed the rest of the continent in volume.  Switzerland (+1.09%) is an outlier to the upside as is Denmark (-1.30%) to the downside in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.40% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are modestly higher to 2.39% and Oil (WTI) is up less than 50 cents in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to Feb. Factory Orders (10 am).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. 

The economic news later this week includes Imports/Exports, Feb. Trade Balance, Mar. Services PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and a couple of Fed speakers all on Tuesday.  Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories and Feb. FOMC Minutes.  Thursday brings Weekly Jobless Claims and 4 different speeches from 3 Fed members.  Friday will also be limited to the WASDE global agriculture report.

April is statistically the best month for stocks and it starts off with a week of little news and very light earnings activity. MS made a point this weekend to tell their customers they believe the “bear market rally” is now over. JPM’s Jamie Dimon seems to agree, saying that the confluence of inflation and the war in Ukraine creates a dramatic increase in market risk. Still, stocks are up 10% from the lows and have been very strong since mid-March. Volatility has plateaued off recently, but is still far off the lows and remains a concern. Many eyes will be on the interest rate inversions (and the implied future recession) as well as how the Fed is going to get from here to where they end up on rates. With all that said, it is probably time to be back in the market, perhaps on both sides, and cautiously riding the trend. Just be prepared for volatility-caused short-term pain and watch that herd mentality.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TWTR, EYE, CELH, PSFE, SPT, AIZ, PLTK, AUY, AAPL, MSFT, LLY, DBX, IWM, ZBH, BMY, JNJ, FCX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks opened very modestly lower on Thursday and proceeded to wobble around until 11 am when a slow, steady selloff started and lasted until 3 pm.  However, that last hour of the day saw a brutal selloff in all 3 major indices only managing to bounce up slightly from the lows of the day.  This left us with big, ugly, black candles that gave up the T-line in the SPY and DIA, with the QQQ closing not far above that 8ema.  On the day, SPY lost 1.44%, DIA lost 1.50%, and QQQ lost 1.28%.  The VXX rose just under 3% to 25.70 and T2122 fell all the way back to the mid-range at 48.02.  10-year bond yields recovered from early lows to close at 2.347%.  There was also a 2-year vs. 10-year rate inversion on Thursday, an event that has preceded every recession since 1955.  However, the lead time between this inversion and those recessions varies greatly and can be as long as 2 years.  Oil (WTI) closed down 6.16% to $101.08/barrel after President Biden confirmed he will be releasing 1 million barrels of oil per day for 180 days from the strategic oil reserves.

The day’s action brought the first quarter to a close.  During the quarter, despite a very strong rally over the last 3 weeks, it was not a good 3 months for any of the major indices.  SPY lost over 5% for the 3-month period even after rallying well over 8% during the last 13 sessions.  DIA lost 4.75% since the first of the year even after rallying 6.4% since March 8^th.  However, the worst-hit index ETF was the QQQ, which lost almost 10% over the quarter (despite a rally of almost 14% since March 14).  All-in-all, this was the worst quarter since 2020.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, Russian troops have left Chernobyl and the Ukrainians who are back in control of the plant (according to the IAEA) claim a number of the Russian troops received significant doses of radiation during their occupation.  The UK has agreed to join the US in releasing oil from their strategic reserves as part of the effort to offset the effects and push for more restrictions on Russian oil supplies.  India is hosting a visit from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.  This comes just after UK Foreign Sec. Truss and US Deputy National Security Advisor Singh were in Delhi pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil (which Russia is selling to India at a discount to keep the sales going).

In business news, AMZN faced unionization votes at both their Bessemer AL (re-vote after AMZN unduly influenced the first vote) and Staten Island NY warehouses on Thursday.  As of Thursday evening, no definitive results were announced.  However, in AL the union was 118 votes behind with 416 disputed ballots left uncounted.  This is far different than last year’s vote where the company won the vote by a 2-to-1 margin.  In NY, it looks like the facility will unionize with about 57% of the counted vote favoring unionization as some counting continues today.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mixed with more exchanges green than red.  New Zealand (+1.18%), Malaysia (+0.95%), and Shanghai (+0.94%) led the gainers while   South Korea (-0.65%), Japan (-0.56%), and Taiwan (-0.38%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are green across the board (including Russia +1.94%) with the lone exception of Portugal (-0.33%) at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.26%), DAX (+0.41%), and CAC (+0.53%) lead the way as usual.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open to the day (in front of a lot of economic data).  The DIA implies a +0.49% open, the SPY is implying a +0.45% open, and QQQ implies a +0.44% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 2.406% and Oil (WTI) is flat in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Participation Rate, and Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (at 9:45 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day.

The February Payrolls data, which is expected to be good, will likely have some impact on premarkets. However, at this point, it looks like we are headed for a green start to the day. Let’s hope it isn’t an “April Fools” joke that leads to intraday reversals. With that said, we should continue to expect volatility (especially in energy markets) to continue to be the norm. The bulls still have the momentum and the couple of days of pullback we’ve seen may have been just what the doctor ordered for a continued rally. With that said, don’t get complacent. It is Friday, with a weekend news cycle ahead and a war at the edge of Europe still raging.

The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas Today You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped modestly lower on Wednesday.  Then after about an hour of roller-coaster action, all 3 major indices went into a selloff that lasted until a 3:30 pm rally that lifted stocks up off the lows.  This left us with indecisive candles in all 3, a Doji in the DIA, a black Spinning Top in the SPY and QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.60%, DIA lost 0.22%, and QQQ lost 1.10%.  The VXX rose marginally to 25.00 and T2122 fell but remains in the overbought territory at 85.98.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.352% and Oil (WTI) rose 2.9% to $107.27/barrel.

Oil prices are plunging on reports that President Biden will make a huge release from the national oil reserves.  The release will be up to 180 million barrels, done at the rate of 1 million barrels per day for the next several months.  Brent fell 5.8% immediately on the news and WTI is down 5.7% in early trading for the same reason.  While this would have very material impacts on oil inflation immediately, it would not solve the structural problem (the US consumes more than our oil companies produce, with companies not willing or unable to expand production much beyond current levels in the short-term).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, despite Tuesday’s optimism due to Russian claims they would “radically reduce” operations in the area, the Russian shelling of areas around Kyiv and Chernihiv intensified Wednesday.  German Economic Minister Habeck said Wed. that Russia threatened to cut off the country’s gas supply unless they pay in Rubles.  He also said Germany has refused that demand (per existing contracts) and is taking precautionary measures in case Russia escalates the issue. (55% of Germany’s gas comes from Russia and Germany’s natural gas storage is currently 25% full, meaning they have a 20-day supply at the moment.) 

As we enter the last day of the quarter, markets have recently been experiencing a very strong run-up, led by the high-growth tech sector.  This is particularly odd since we are entering a tightening cycle that is expected to accelerate and inflation is a major drag on consumers who drive that sector.  This trend was challenged a bit on Wednesday by analysts’ fears about the strength of the personal computer market.  (As I have reported in the past, despite overall inflation, the prices of graphics cards and CPUs have been falling for months as supply has caught up to demand.  This means NVDA, AMD, and INTC (as well as their channel partners) can no longer charge 100% premium over MSRP for their products as they have for the last 2 years.  For this reason, MS and Barclays analysts have begun downgrading tech names.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly leaning to the downside.  Shenzhen (-1.19%) Hong Kong (-1.06%) and Singapore (-0.99%) led the way lower.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+0.40%) and Malaysia (+0.26%) were the only appreciable gainers on the day.  (It is worth noting that financial companies in Shanghai are paying their traders $300/day to live at their desks, thus keeping Shanghai markets open during the city’s 9-day lockdown.)  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the red side at mid-day with the notable exception of Russia, whose rigged game has their exchange up 6.11%.  The FTSE (-0.28%), DAX (-0.35%), and CAC (-0.62%) are typical of the rest of the continent.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed and flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields and Oil continue their extreme volatility, with yields down sharply to 2.318% and WTI down 5.73% to $101.63 in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes Feb. PCE Price Index, Weekly Jobless Claims, and Feb. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and a Fed speaker (Williams at 9 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to WBA.  Then after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

The news on a potential oil release in the US as well as some economic news in premarket will be the backdrop for the last day of the quarter. Beware more window dressing, although much of it may have already been done in the recent rally. Ukraine is still under siege and bombardment and their President Zelensky reports that Russia is now targeting agriculture as a way to increase pressure on both Ukraine (it’s one of their major industries) and the West who is backing them. (Russia and Ukraine combined account for about 40% of global wheat production.) With that said, we should continue to expect huge volatility (especially in energy markets) to continue to be the norm. The bulls still clearly have the momentum, but we’ve been in dire need of rest and are waiting on the February Payrolls Report on Friday. So, more rest may be in order, but don’t get complacent.

Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BMQ, SPCE, FOXA, NIO, BBWI, DKNG, RH, DISCA, GRWG, QCOM, YETI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped about 1% higher at the open Tuesday off optimism from Russia saying they are essentially ending attacks on Kyiv and Chernihiv (Northern Ukraine cities).  However, prices then went on a roller-coaster ride that hit the lows at about 10:15 am and again at 12:30 pm before going on a rally that lasted all afternoon and closing not far from the highs.  This left us with very indecisive gap-up Doji (SPY and DIA) or Spinning Top type (QQQ) candles in the 3 major indices.  VXX fell to 24.85 and T2122 spiked near the maximum, deep in overbought territory at 99.35.  10-year bond yields were very high early before falling all the way back to see a modest decline to 2.389% for the day.  Oil (WTI) also fell back from earlier highs to close at $105.09/barrel.

During the day Tuesday, the JOLTS report showed that there were 11.3 million job openings, which is 5 million more than the total unemployed workforce (a record discrepancy).  The volatility in mem stocks continued as GME closed down 5.12% (while trading in a 23% range over the course of the day) and MAC closed up 0.41% after trading in a 30% range on the day.  Meanwhile, AAPL (+1.91%) put in its 11^th straight day of gains, the stock’s longest winning streak since 2003.  If you were in AAPL, congratulations, if not, be careful chasing.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

After the close, CALM, CNXC, MU, and MLKN all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, LULU, PVH, and RH all beat on earnings while missing on revenue.   We should note that LUL also initiated a $1 billion buyback program and RH announced a 3-for-1 split that will take place later this Spring.  However, CHWY missed on both the top and bottom lines. So far this morning, BNTX and MSM reported beating on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, AER beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  FIVE was just the opposite, missing on revenue while beating on earnings.

Mortgage demand plummeted last week (compared to a year with those two instances of a quarter of a percent spike in 30-year rates within a few days of each other.  The average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.80% (actually down from the peak) at week’s end. Refinance applications fell 15% for the week and 60% compared to the same week in 2021.  New home purchase applications rose 1% for the week but were also down 10% from a year prior.

Overnight, the Asian markets were mostly green.  Shenzhen (+3.10%) was a clear outlier to the upside, with Shanghai (+1.96%) and Hong Kong (+1.39%) leading all but 2 Asian exchanges higher.  Japan (-0.80%) and Malaysia (-0.01%) were the only red in the region.  In Europe, stocks are mixed, but leaning to the downside at mid-day.  Russia (+4.34%) was a clear outlier with the market manipulating policies in place, but Norway (+2.35%) was also heavily green with a handful of other exchanges following.  However, the FTSE (+0.01%), DAX (-1.44%), and CAC (-0.91%) are most indicative of the continent in early afternoon trading after Russia said it sees no breakthroughs in peace talks.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the session.  The DIA implies a -0.23% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.37% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.415% and Oil (WTI) is up 2.59% in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Q4 GDP (8:30 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) as well as a Fed speaker (George at 1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open are limited to AER, BNTX, CNM, FIVE, MSM, PAYX, and UNF.  Then after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

With Ukraine making some gains in the South (near besieged Mariupol) and no major economic news this morning, the mood seems to be somewhere between lifting and waiting in the premarket. However, we should expect massive volatility (especially in energy markets) to continue to be the norm. So, don’t get complacent. The bulls still clearly have the momentum, but there is resistance close overhead from major averages in the QQQ and DIA as well as prior price levels. Be careful of both quarter-end window dressing rotation toward the winners funds look to assure owners they are in the ones that did best…even if it was a last-minute entry. And expect that intraday volatility as we head into the last 3 days of a quarter of war and inflation-ridden markets.

Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. The first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. If you are wrong, just admit it and take your loss. Stick to those trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. So, focus on the process and enjoy yourself.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BNTX, RIG, OXY, SQ, OCGN, XLE, AFRM, IBB, MP, CRON, DKNG, MQ, PSFE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service