Jobless Claims and Trump Speech Today

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On Wednesday, markets popped at the open again.  SPY gapped up 0.49%, DIA gapped up 0.31%, and QQQ gapped up 0.92%.  From there, SPY and QQQ rallied slowly and steadily until noon while DIA bounced sideway along its open and inside its gap.  At noon, SPY and QQQ followed DIA sideways the rest of the day. This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY printed a gap-up, white-bodied, Inverted Hammer or possibly a Shooting Star type based on follow-through.  QQQ printed something similar, but with a larger body.  For its part, DIA gave us a gap-up, black-bodied Doji.  This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red with Technology (+1.46%) by far the strongest sector while Utilities (-1.87%) and Energy (-1.43%) led the market lower.  It is worth noting that nine of the 10 Big Dogs were in the green, led by NFLX (+9.69%), NVDA (+4.43%), and MSFT (+4.13%).  At the same time, SPY gained 0.55%, DIA gained 0.27%, and QQQ gained 1.28%.  Meanwhile, VXX rose 1.52% to close at 42.75 while T2122 dropped but stayed just inside the overbought range, closing at 80.43.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields rose back to 4.607% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 0.51% to $75.44 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw a gap higher, then the broader indices rallied through the morning only to follow the Mega-Cap DJIA sideways the rest of the day.  Once again, most of the gain was accomplished at the opening gap. 

The major economic news on Wednesday was limited to the US Leading Economic Index, which came in as expected at -0.1% (compared to a forecast of -0.1% and a November reading of +0.4%).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a 1.000-million-barrel inventory build (versus the prior week’s 2.600-million-barrel drawdown).

There was no Fed news Wednesday as they prepare for next week’s FOMC meeting.  (That meeting is expected to be a hold by most analysts and 99.5% of Fed Futures traders.)

After the close, AA, CACI, CADE, and DFS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, KNX, PLXS, and STLD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, KMI missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Thalina (-1.29%) and South Korea (-1.24%) paced the losses while Taiwan (+0.97%) and Japan (+0.79%) led the gainers.  In Europe, the bourses are leaning toward the green side with only three of 14 exchanges in the red at midday.  The CAC (+0.39%), DAX (+0.30%), and lagging FTSE (+0.01%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US., as off 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open.  DIA implies a +0.14% open, SPY is implying a -0.13% open, and QQQ implies a -0.50% open at this hour.  At the dame time, 10-Year Bond yields are up to 4.64% and Oil (WTI) is up a third of a percent to $75.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (noon), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  Trump also speaks at 11 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALK, AAL, ELV, FCX, GE, HBAN, MKC, NTRS, ORI, TAL, and UNP. Then, after the close, COLB, CSX, EWBC, ISRG, and TXN report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Dec. Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Friday, we hear from AXP, ERIC, HCA, NEE, and VZ.

So far this morning, AAL, ELV, GE, MKC, NTRS, TAL, and TCBI have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HZO and ORI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SDVKY and VLY beat on revenue while missing on earnings. 

With that background, it looks like the market is undecided early today.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket in one direction and have traded the other direction since that start.  SPY and DIA are giving us white body candles while QQQ is now showing a black-body candle. With that said, all three are well above their T-line (8ema) and thus the short-term trend is bullish.  All three have also broken mid-term downtrend lines (running back to the mid-December all-time highs). However, they haven’t printed higher-highs and higher-lows to confirm an uptrend. So, downtrends are broken, but a new bullish trend hasn’t been established.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, all three are now stretched above their T-line at this point.  For its part, T2122 has fallen but remains in the bottom of its overbought range. So, we need more of a pause or pullback to keep the rally healthy.  However, the market can remain over-extended longer than any of us can stay solvent betting on a reversal too soon.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the red with NVDA (-1.81%) well out in front leading the QQQ lower.  On the other side, META (+0.53%) is holding up better than the others.  Related to volume, NVDA also leads the way, having traded 1.5 times as much dollar-volume as TSLA (-0.44%), which itself has traded 5 times as much as AAPL (+0.16%) and MSFT (-0.66%). 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Approaching New Record Highs

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Approaching New Record Highs

Stock futures remained relatively unchanged early Thursday, with Wall Street approaching new record highs. This stability in futures followed a Wednesday session where the S&P 500 reached an intraday record high. The stock market’s positive momentum is being driven by optimism surrounding potential tax cuts and deregulation under President Donald Trump, along with indications of robust economic growth. Investors are also anticipating updated economic data, with initial jobless claims set to be released before the market opens, followed by Kansas City Fed manufacturing data later in the day.

European stocks opened with mixed results on Thursday, following a week of positive momentum. Sportswear brand Puma experienced a significant drop, with shares falling by 19% in early trading after missing full-year 2024 profit expectations and announcing cost-cutting measures. This contrasted sharply with competitor Adidas, which reported 19% growth in fourth-quarter top-line figures earlier in the week.

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed performance on Thursday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined by 0.65%, while China’s CSI 300 saw a gain of 1.01%. To support the struggling stock market, Chinese financial regulators urged large state-owned mutual funds and insurers to increase their share purchases. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.61%, whereas South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq fell by 1.24% and 1.13%, respectively. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indices both experienced gains, with the Nikkei 225 up by 0.79% and the Topix by 0.53%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is holding a policy meeting, where Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated a potential rate hike.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include ALK, AAL, AUB, BANC, ELV, FBP, FSV, FCX, CATX, GE, MCK, NTRS, PPBI, RCI, TECK, TCBI, UNP, VLY, & WNS. After the bell reports include ASB, COLB, CSX, CUBI, EWBC, FFBC, GBCI, ISRG, SLM, SSB, & TXN.

News & Technicals’

Warner Bros. Discovery’s CNN is set to lay off hundreds of employees on Thursday as it shifts its focus towards a global digital audience. This move comes as CNN restructures its linear TV lineup and expands its digital subscription offerings. The layoffs aim to reduce production costs and streamline teams, according to sources who requested anonymity. Similarly, NBC News is also planning job cuts later this week, although the exact number remains unclear. Both organizations delayed these decisions until after the U.S. presidential inauguration. The media landscape is evolving, with fewer viewers tuning into linear TV and more people consuming news via streaming services and social media.

Microsoft’s head of business development, Chris Young, is resigning after approximately four years in the role, as disclosed in a regulatory filing on Wednesday. Young played a key role in orchestrating Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard and was a member of the senior leadership team, reporting directly to CEO Satya Nadella. Despite no successor being named yet, Young’s departure marks a significant change in the company’s leadership. In the 2024 fiscal year, he was one of Microsoft’s highest-paid employees, earning total compensation of $12 million.

In the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of active credit card holders making only minimum payments reached a record high of 10.75%, the highest since data collection began in 2012. Additionally, the share of cardholders more than 30 days past due increased to 3.52%, up from 3.21%, marking a rise of over 10%. Despite this uptick in delinquency rates, the current level remains significantly lower than the 6.8% peak observed during the 2008-09 financial crisis, suggesting that the situation has not yet reached critical levels.

The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has announced dual investigations into Apple and Google to determine if they possess “strategic market status” within their mobile ecosystems. These ecosystems encompass the operating systems, app stores, and smartphone-based browsers that form the foundation of the two tech giants’ software. The probes are being conducted under the new Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act (DMCC), a U.K. law aimed at curbing anti-competitive practices in digital markets.

Though we are approaching new record highs and market enthusiasm is raging, keep in mind the extension that very high valuations in stock prices. If selling were to begin, we could easily see some quick piling on as traders rush to the door to protect profits.  That said, with record highs so close I would not rule out a strong push to get the new high for the record book before a pull back begins.  Plan your trading risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Strong Earnings and No Tariffs Yet Spur Bulls

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Markets jumped higher on Tuesday.  SPY gapped up 0.52%, DIA gapped up 0.41%, and QQQ gapped up 0.54%.  From there was saw a little divergence.  QQQ sold off and recrossed its gap within the first 30 minutes, reaching the lows by 10:20 a.m. At that point, it rallied until 1 p.m. before drifting lower until 3 p.m. and grinding sideways into the close.  Meanwhile, SPY sold off much more mildly only getting back into the middle of its gap by 10:15 a.m. before starting a long, steady rally until 1:20 p.m.  From there it traded sideways all afternoon.  For its part, unlike the other two, DIA rallied from the open in a slow, steady climb the tempered during the afternoon but continued higher the last 90 minutes.  This action gave us a gap-up, white-bodied Hanging Man type candle.  DIA printed a gap-up, white-bodied large candle (which could be said to be part of a “Trader’s Best Friend” pattern).  However, QQQ printed a gap-up, black-bodied, long-legged Doji. 

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the green with Industrials (+2.14%) and Healthcare (+2.03%) leading the charge higher.  On the other side, Energy (+0.03%) was by far the laggard sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.92%, DIA gained 1.24%, and QQQ gained 0.59%.  Meanwhile, VXX dropped another 4.21% to close at 42.11 while T2122 climbed even higher into the top half of its overbought range, closing at 95.85.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields plummeted to 4.564% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 2.30% to $76.09 per barrel.  (Much of the last two numbers can be attributed to a HUGE move lower by the US Dollar.)  So, Monday saw the Bulls gap markets higher, show some uncertainty, but then rally most of the day.  It appeared as if traders may have been reassured by the Trump administration holding off on tariffs so far and his initial moves to prop up the already strong oil and gas sectors while bypassing climate and environmental policies/laws.  This all happened on well-below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.   

There was no major economic news on Tuesday.

There was no Fed news on Tuesday either.

After the close, COF, HWC, IBKR, NFLX, STX, UAL, WTFC, and ZION all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Hong Kong (-.163%) was by far the biggest of the four losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, Japan (+1.58%), South Korea (+1.15%), and Taiwan (+0.97%) led the gainers.  In Europe, with two small exchange exceptions we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.24%), DAX (+1.32%), and lagging FTSE (+0.29%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  DIA implies a +0.38% open, the SPY is implying a +0.47% open, and QQQ implies a +0.87% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are at 4.578% and Oil (WTI) is up two-tenths of a percent to $75.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to the US Leading Economic Index (10 a.m.) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABT, ALLY, APH, CMA, GEV, HAL, HDB, JNJ, PG, TEL, TDY, TXT, and TRV. Then, after the close, AA, CACI, DFS, KMI, KNX, PLXS, and STLD report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Dec. Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Thursday, ALK, AAL, ELV, FCX, GE, HBAN, MKC, NTRS, ORI, TAL, UNP, COLB, CSX, EWBC, ISRG, and TXN report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from AXP, ERIC, HCA, NEE, and VZ.

So far this morning, ALLY, BKU, CBSH, FNB, HDB, PG, and TDY have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ABT, HAL, JNJ, TEL, TXT and TRV all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CMA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GEV missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls want to run this morning.  All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the premarket and all three have given us a white-body candle since that point.  SPY and DIA are printing mostly-body candles while QQQ is giving us a small Spinning Top type candle so far in the early session.  With that said, all three are well above their T-line (8ema) and thus the short-term trend is bullish.  All three have also broken mid-term downtrend lines (running back to the mid-December all-time highs). However, they have not printed the higher-highs and higher-lows to confirm an uptrend (just continually gapping higher).  So, downtrends are broken, but a new bullish trend hasn’t been established.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, all three are now stretched above their T-line at this point.  For its part, T2122 is also in the top part of its overbought range. So, we are in need of a pause or pullback to keep the rally healthy.  However, the market can remain over-extended longer than any of us can stay solvent betting on a reversal too soon.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green with NFLX (+14.45%) way, way out in front due to last night’s earnings beat.  Meanwhile, TSLA (-1.16%) is by far the laggard.  Related to volume, NVDA (+3.02%) is leading the way, having traded 1.5  times as much dollar-volume as TSLA, which itself has traded 1.5 times as much as NFLX. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Netflix Impressive Results

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Netflix Impressive Results

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures rose on Wednesday, driven by Netflix impressive results. The earnings season continues with anticipated reports from Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson, while Halliburton and GE Vernova are also set to release their results. Additionally, former President Trump announced a significant joint venture named “Stargate” with OpenAI, Oracle, and Softbank, aiming to invest at least $500 billion in AI infrastructure in the United States.

European stocks opened higher on Wednesday, reflecting the positive sentiment seen in global markets since the start of the week. The U.K.’s FTSE index edged up by 0.1%, Germany’s DAX increased by 0.7%, and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.1%. The pan-European Stoxx 600 also rose by 0.3%. Notably, Adidas shares surged by 5.96% by 8:51 a.m. London time, following the company’s announcement of a 19% sales growth in its fourth-quarter results on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the U.K. reported borrowing £17.8 billion ($21.9 billion) in December, marking an increase of £10.1 billion compared to December 2023 and the highest budget deficit recorded for December in four years.

Asia-Pacific markets experienced a mixed trading session on Wednesday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index saw a significant drop of 1.72%, while mainland China’s CSI 300 fell by 0.93%. In contrast, India’s Nifty 50 managed a slight rebound, gaining 0.28% after hitting its lowest point since last June. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.33%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indices increased by 1.58% and 0.87%, respectively. South Korea’s Kospi and Kosdaq also performed well, with the Kospi adding 1.15% and the Kosdaq rising by 0.86%. Additionally, Korean companies are contemplating relocating their production plants from Mexico to the U.S. in response to Trump’s protectionist policies.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Wednesday before the bell include ABT, ALLY, APH, BKU, CMA, CBSH, FNB, GEV, HAL, JNJ, OFG, PG, TEL, TXT, TRV & UCB. After the bell reports include AA, CACI, CADE, CP, CATY, CLS, DFS, HXL, KMI, KMX, NBHC, PLXS, RLI, SLG, STLD, WCN, & WSBC.

News & Technicals’

Kevin O’Leary expressed interest in a proposal by Trump for U.S. owners to acquire a 50% stake in a platform, though he noted that current laws make such a deal unlikely. On Tuesday, Trump mentioned he would consider the possibility of Tesla CEO Elon Musk or Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison purchasing TikTok.

The president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, emphasized the need for Europe to be prepared for potential trade tariffs from newly inaugurated U.S. President Donald Trump. In a statement to CNBC on Wednesday, Lagarde noted that Trump had criticized the EU for being “very, very bad” to the U.S. and warned of impending tariffs. However, she also acknowledged that Trump’s decision not to impose blanket tariffs on his first day in office was a “very smart approach.”

President Donald Trump announced that his team is considering a 10% tariff on China, which could be implemented as early as February 1. Speaking to reporters at the White House on Tuesday evening, Trump cited China’s role in sending fentanyl to Mexico and Canada as the reason for the proposed tariff. He also mentioned that he had a phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday, discussing fentanyl and trade. According to the Chinese readout, Xi emphasized the importance of cooperation and described the economic relationship between the two countries as mutually beneficial.

Stripe has confirmed the layoff of 300 employees, which accounts for approximately 3.5% of its workforce, primarily affecting the product, engineering, and operations departments. Despite these cuts, the payments company, valued at around $70 billion in private markets, plans to expand its headcount by 10,000 by the end of the year, representing a 17% increase. According to a memo from Chief People Officer Rob McIntosh, Stripe is “not slowing down hiring.” Business Insider initially reported on the layoffs and the memo.

Emotions are high and chase is on with the Netflix impressive results engaging the fear of missing out from traders.  Remember to follow your rules, avoiding already very extended stocks and plan carefully to protect current gains should a pullback begin.  Exuberance is contagious so the rally may continue but also remember it’s the last one in door that gets the worst of the punishment.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Earnings and Whatever Trump Does Tops Agenda

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On Friday, essentially the market move was over at the opening bell.  SPY gapped up 0.88%, DIA gapped up 0.68%, and QQQ gapped up 1.91%. From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways all day, with QQQ closing not far below its open as SPY and DIA closed slightly above their opens.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three.  SPY and DIA printed gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top candles.  At the same time, QQQ gave us a gap-up, black-bodied Spinning Top.  This happened on just below average volume in the QQQ while SPY and DIA traded well-below-average volume.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+1.14%) and Technology (+1.12%) led the charge higher.  On the other side, Healthcare (-0.42%) was the only sector in the red and, by far, the laggard of the 10.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.00%, DIA gained 0.73%, and QQQ gained 1.69%.  Meanwhile, VXX was just on the green side of flat again to close at 43.96 while T2122 climbed even higher, into the top half of its overbought range, closing at 93.81.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields rose a bit again to 4.623% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.81% to $78.04 per barrel.  So, Friday was all about the open.  Once that was behind us, the market seemed to just chop sideways.  It appeared as if many traders got out of town early to extend their three-day weekend by another day. 

The major economic news for Friday were limited to December Building Permits, which came in higher than expected at 1.483 million (compared to a 1.460 million forecast, but down from November’s 1.493 million).  At the same time, December Housing Starts came in much higher than expected a 1.499 million (versus a1.330 million forecast and November’s 1.294 million).  Later, December Industrial Production SPIKED to +0.9% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and the +0.2% November value).  On an annualized basis, December Industrial Production was a +0.55% (versus the November -0.61% reading).  Then, at the close, November TIC Net Long-Term Transactions where down sharply to $0.79 billion (compared to a $159.9 billion forecast and October’s $159.1 billion value).

There was no Fed news Friday.  However, the Treasury Department announced it would start extraordinary measures to avoid a UD Debt Limit breach as of today.  The outgoing Treasury Sec. Yellen announced the statutory borrowing limit would be reached Tuesday.  As part of the “extraordinary measures,” all government investment into government employee benefit funds are being suspended as well as any other spending not immediately needed to pay benefits.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  India (-1.37%) was the biggest mover and led the four losing exchanges lower.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+0.91%) and Thailand (+0.90%) paced the eight gainers.  In Europe, we also see a mixed picture with six green bourses, seven red ones, and the FTSE unchanged in early afternoon trade.  In the Us, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the week.  The DIA implies a +0.45% open, the SPY is implying a +0.37% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.45% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are down to 4.57% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.4% to $76.01 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Tuesday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include MMM, SCHW, DHI, FITB, FOR, KEY, EDU, PLD, and UMC.  Then, after the close, COF, IBKR, NFLX, STX, UAL, WTFC, and ZION report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get US Leading Economic Index and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday, we get S&P Global Mfg. PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Dec. Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Wednesday we hear from ABT, ALLY, APH, CMA, GEV, HAL, HDB, JNJ, PG, TEL, TDY, TXT, TRV, AA, CACI, DFS, KMI, KNX, PLXS, and STLD.  On Thursday, ALK, AAL, ELV, FCX, GE, HBAN, MKC, NTRS, ORI, TAL, UNP, COLB, CSX, EWBC, ISRG, and TXN report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from AXP, ERIC, HCA, NEE, and VZ.

So far this morning, MMM, SCHW, DHI, FITB, KEY, and ONB all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, EDU beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, UMC missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market appears to be continuing its uncertain rally from last week (climbing the wall of worry if you like).  All three major index ETFs gapped up to begin the premarket.  However, all three have also printed indecisive, yet white-bodied, candles since that start.  With that said, all three do remain above their T-line (8ema) and thus the short-term trend is bullish.  All three have also broken their mid-term downtrend line (running back to the mid-December all-time highs). However, they have not printed the higher-highs and higher-lows to confirm an uptrend.  So, downtrends are broken, but a new bullish trend hasn’t been established.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, QQQ, SPY and DIA are pretty stretched above their T-line at this point.  For its part, T2122 is also in its overbought range. So, we are in need of a pause or pullback to keep the rally healthy.  However, the market can always stay over-extended longer than any of us can stay solvent betting on a reversal too soon.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green with INTC (+2.05%) and TSLA (+1.94%) leading the way while AAPL (-1.79%) lags.  Related to volume, TSLA is leading the way, having traded almost 2.5 times as much dollar-volume as NVDA (+0.46%), which itself is almost twice AAPL’s trade. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

No Tariffs for the Moment

by
No Tariffs for the Moment

Stock futures rose on Tuesday as Donald Trump began his second term as president with a series of executive orders, however no tariffs for the moment. A positive market reaction followed Trump’s statement that he was not yet ready to impose universal tariffs. Wall Street’s attention is now on whether Trump will deliver on his pro-business promises, particularly his calls for looser regulations, which had previously boosted banking stocks after his election win in November. Other elements of the “Trump trade,” such as small-cap stocks, oil stocks, and bitcoin, are expected to be highly sensitive to the direction of his administration’s policies.

European stocks opened with mixed results on Tuesday. Orsted shares plummeted by 15% following the announcement of a fourth-quarter loss of 12.1 billion Danish Krone ($1.7 billion) related to its U.S. offshore wind turbine projects. European automakers Stellantis and BMW also saw declines due to concerns over potential U.S. tariffs. In the U.K., private sector wages increased by 6% in the three months leading up to November compared to the previous year, according to the Office for National Statistics. However, the agency also reported a 0.1% drop in November payroll figures compared to October, indicating a weakening labor market.

Asia-Pacific markets showed mixed but mostly positive movements on Tuesday as investors awaited further policy clarity from U.S. President Donald Trump. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 saw a gain of 0.66%, while South Korea’s Kospi experienced a slight decline of 0.08%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose by 0.32% to close at 39,027.98, and the Topix edged up by 0.08% amid volatile trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index increased by 1.02%, and Mainland China’s CSI 300 Index saw a modest rise of 0.08%. Investors are also keeping an eye on upcoming central bank meetings, with the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting scheduled for January 23-24, where Governor Kazuo Ueda has hinted at potential rate hikes, and Singapore’s Monetary Authority set to meet on Friday.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Tuesday before the bell include MMM, SCHW, CBU, DHI, FBK, FITB, KEY, EDU, ONB, PEBO, PGR, & PLD. After the bell reports include AGYS, CNI, COF, FULT, HWC, IBKR, CASH, NFLX, PNFP, PGRS, RBB, STX, SFNC, UAL, WTFC, & ZION.

News & Technicals’

Costco Teamsters, representing 18,000 employees nationwide, announced that 85% of its members voted in favor of strike action. With the current contract set to expire on January 31, a strike could significantly disrupt Costco’s daily operations. This potential strike also poses a risk to Costco’s public image, which has been bolstered by its reputation for positive worker treatment and support for diversity and inclusion initiatives. The union has scheduled a final week of negotiations with Costco, as mentioned in a recent X post. Last week, the Teamsters conducted practice pickets in various locations, including San Diego and Long Island, New York, to prepare for a possible strike.

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that tariffs of up to 25% could be imposed on Mexico and Canada as early as February 1st. He cited concerns over the number of people crossing the border as a reason for these potential levies. Trump labeled Canada as “a very bad abuser” and indicated that the tariffs would be broad-based rather than targeted at specific essential items. This announcement underscores Trump’s intensified focus on trade and his plans to implement widespread duties on U.S. trading partners, though the exact timing and scope had previously been uncertain.

European business leaders have shared mixed reactions to Donald Trump’s first day in office. Some are optimistic, believing that Trump’s administration could revitalize America’s economic spirit by reducing regulations, increasing energy supply, and fostering a more market-driven environment. One leader expressed that Trump could be a significant boost for business, but also emphasized the need for businesses to balance the interests of various stakeholders, including employees, and to address issues like diversity, equity, inclusion (DEI), and sustainability. Others, however, have adopted a more cautious stance, awaiting further developments before forming a definitive opinion.

Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang emphasized that there are “no winners” in a trade war, as China faces potential tariffs from the newly inaugurated administration of Donald Trump. Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Ding warned that protectionism is counterproductive and reiterated that a trade war benefits no one. His address echoed sentiments from Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2017 Davos speech, which occurred just days before Trump began his first term. Ding’s remarks highlight China’s concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies.

The quick fluctuation in the value of the dollar highlights the tariff uncertainty.  Although there are no tariffs now, he suggested he is thinking of 25% increases maybe on the way the first of February.  Also keep in mind with earnings ramping up we should plan on higher-than-normal volatility.  Plan your risk carefully.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Good Earnings Continue on OpEx Day

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Markets opened up mixed to get us started on Thursday.  SPY gapped up 0.23%, DIA opened 0.01% lower, and QQQ gapped up 0.47%.  From there, all three major index ETFs sold off for 30 minutes and then meandered sideways in waves until 1 p.m.  At that point, SPY and QQQ diverged from DIA.  SPY and QQQ made another leg lower for an hour, then rallied for an hour to get back to where they were at 1pm before selling off again the last hour.  For its part, DIA just kept meandering sideways all day.  This action gave us a Bearish Engulfing candle in the QQQ that gapped above and then failed its downtrend line, closing just above its T-line (8ema).  The SPY gave us a Dark Cloud Cover that also gapped above and then failed its downtrend line, but remains above its T-line.  Meanwhile, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top Doji type candle.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the green with Utilities (+2.05%) way out in front leading the way higher.  On the other side, Technology (-0.24%) and Consumer Cyclical (-0.23%) were the only sectors in the red and the laggards. At the same time, SPY fell 0.19%, DIA lost 0.26%, and QQQ dropped 0.70%.  Meanwhile, VXX was just on the green side of flat at +0.16% to close at 43.62 while T2122 rose another 1.80%, closing at 87.56.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields dropped again to 4.615% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.69% to $78.69 per barrel.  So, Thursday was an indecisive day that might have been signaling reversal of Wednesday’s pop.  (Just remember that every candle signal needs confirmation.)  This happened on well-below average volume in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 217k (compared to a forecast of 210k and the prior week’s 203k).  For ongoing, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were lower than was predicted at 1.859k (versus a 1,870k forecast and the previous week’s 1,877k value).  At the same time, the December Export Price Index was higher anticipated at +0.3% (compared to the +0.2% forecast and November’s flat 0.0%).  On the incoming side, the Dec. Import Price Index was +0.1% (versus a -0.1% forecast and in-line with November’s +0.1%).  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was MUCH higher than expected at 43.3 (compared to a -5.0 forecast and December’s -10.9 reading).  On the jobs side, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment was also stronger at 11.9 (versus December’s 4.8 value).  At the same time, Dec. Core Retail Sales were up, but less that expected at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.5% and November’s +0.2%).  For the headline number, Dec. Retail Sales were lower than predicted at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.6% and November’s +0.8%).  Later, November Business Inventories were up a tick as anticipated at +0.1% (compared to a +0.1% forecast and October’s flat 0.0% value).  At the same time, Nov. Retail Inventories were up, but not as much as predicted at +0.5% (versus the +0.6% forecast, but up sharply from October’s +0.1% reading). Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $20 billion decline from $6.854 trillion to $6.834 trillion. 

In Fed news, on Thursday, Fed Governor Waller told CNBC that a rate cut cannot be ruled out for March.  He said, “(Inflation) is getting close to what our 2% inflation target would be.”  More broadly, Waller said, “If inflation data comes in as it has, I’d expect a cut in the first half of the year” … “If inflation is down and the labor market stays solid, you could think about restarting rate cuts several months from now…I don’t think March could be completely ruled out.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told the Wall Street Journal, “I have over the last several months become more comfortable that this is a stabilization of the job market at a full-employment-like level, as opposed to something that was crashing through normal and turning into something worse.”  

After the close, JBHT missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned bullish with five exchanges in the red and seven in the green.  New Zealand (+1.00%) led the gainers while Thailand (-0.88%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is greener with 13 of the 14 bourses above break-even at midday.  The CAC (+1.04%), DAX (+0.98%), and FTSE (+1.29%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest move higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.38% open, SPY is implying a +0.34% open, and QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down to 4.582% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $78.61 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday are limited to Dec. Building Permits and Dec. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), Dec. Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), and Nov. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CFG, FAST, RF, SLB, STT, TFC, WBS, and WIT.  Then, after the close, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, CFG, RF, SLB, STT, TFC, and WBS have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, WIT missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings.  However, FAST missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market tepidly bullish this morning.  The three major index ETFs made a small gap higher to start the premarket.  All three have managed to print small white body candles since the start of the early session, but there are no break-aways from the recent few days’ range.  With that said, all three do remain above their T-line (8ema) and thus the short-term trend is bullish.  It is worth noting that SPY has rejoined DIA (by virtue of the premarket gap higher) in being above their mid-term downtrend line which extends back to mid-December.  So, the downtrends are broken in those two, but a new bullish trend (higher-highs and higher-lows) hasn’t been established.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the three are too extended above their T-line.  For its part, T2122 is in its overbought range. So, both sides have room to work today, but the Bears have a bit more slack. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, all 10 are in the green with NVDA (+0.85%) and AAPL (+0.82%) leading the way while INTC (+0.10%) lags.  Related to volume, TSLA (+0.70%) is leading the way, having traded almost twice as much dollar-volume as NVDA, which has traded twice as much as AAPL.  That said, it is a low-volume morning so far.  (Remember this is Options Expiration day and Monday is a holiday.)   

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Banks Clean Sweep and Jobless Claims Ahead

by

The big banks and especially CPI delivered for the Bulls on Wednesday.  SPY gapped up 1.39%, DIA gapped up 1.48%, and QQQ gapped up 1.57%.  From there, all three major index ETFs saw a follow-through rally for about 40-60 minutes, an hour of selloff, and then a rally that lasted the rest of the day.  Only profit-taking the last 30 minutes prevented the market from going out on the highs.  This action gave us gap-up, white-body candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ had larger bodies, but all three were some form of a Spinning Top.  All three are now above their T-line (8ema).  However, it is worth noting that SPY and QQQ retested and back down from their Bear downtrend line that extends back to the all-time highs in mid-December.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+2.56%) and Technology (+2.26%) leading the way higher.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (+0.03%) was by far the laggard. At the same time, SPY gained 1.82%, DIA gained 1.67%, and QQQ gained 2.26%.  Meanwhile, VXX plummeted 8.16% to close at 43.55 while T2122 popped up into its overbought range, closing at 86.01.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields plummeted to 4.653% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.94% to $80.56 per barrel.  So, after the strong gap higher Wednesday, the Bulls won the tug of war, but it was not decisive.  In other words, there was plenty of wick on both ends of all three major index ETF candles. This happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The major economic news Wednesday included December Month-on-Month Core CPI, which came in a tick better than expected at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and November value).  On the annualized basis, December Year-on-Year Core CPI was also a tick better than expected at +3.2% (versus a +3.3% forecast and November reading).  For the headline numbers, December Month-on-Month was up a tick as predicted at +0.4% (compared to a +0.4% forecast and a +0.3% November number). On an annualized basis, December Year-on-Year CPI was as anticipated at +2.9% (versus a +2.9% forecast but two ticks higher than November’s +2.7% value).  At the same time, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was way down to -12.60 (compared to a +2.70 forecast and a December +2.10 reading).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a 1.962-million-barrel drawdown (less than the forecasted 3.500-million-barrel drawdown, but higher than the prior week’s 0.959-million-barrel draw. 

In Fed news, on Wednesday, Richmond Fed President Barkin told reporters that the December CPI “continues the story we have been on, which is that inflation is coming down towards target.”  Barkin continued, “The ‘economy weakening’ argument seems to be decaying … You keep seeing good numbers on retail sales, unemployment, and the like Demand, you are hearing, is good, solid, fine.”  Separately, NY Fed President Williams said, “The process of disinflation remains in train.”  He went on, “Monetary policy is well positioned to keep the risks to our goals in balance.”  However, he also expressed caution based on indecision over the new administration’s policies.  He said, “The economic outlook remains highly uncertain, especially around potential fiscal, trade, immigration, and regulatory policies. Therefore, our decisions on future monetary policy actions will continue to be based on the totality of the data, the evolution of the economic outlook, and the risks to achieving our dual mandate goals.”  Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented that “Tariffs themselves don’t cause inflation, but retaliation does and the whole issue is more complicated.”  Finally, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he continues to see progress on inflation and that he is optimistic for a soft landing in 2025. However, he also said the CPI report was both somewhat encouraging and somewhat discouraging in equal measure.  He continues to see continued progress on inflation, but he is also “wary of the seasonal pattern of inflation.”

After the close, CNXC and FUL both reported a miss on revenue while also beating on earnings.  Later, SNV reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with 10 of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  Malaysia (-0.42%) was the only appreciable loser.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+2.27%), Australian (+1.38%), and South Korea and Hon Kong (both +1.23%) led the region higher. In Europe, we see a similar picture with 11 of 14 bourses showing green at midday.  The CAC (+2.00%), DAX (+0.26%), and FTSE (+0.60%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the morning.  DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a +0.15% open, and QQQ implies a +0.34% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are back up to 4.68% and Oil (WTI) has pulled back 0.94% to $79.28 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Dec. Export Price Index, Dec. Import Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, Dec. Core Retail Sales, and Dec. Retail Sales (all at 8:30 a.m.), November Business Inventories and Nov. Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30- p.m.).  Fed member Williams also speaks again at 11 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BAC, FHN, GS, INFY, MTB, MS, PNC, TSM, USB, and UNH.   Then, after the close, JBHT reports.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Dec. Building Permits, Dec. Housing Starts, Dec. Industrial Production, and Nov. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, Friday, CFG, FAST, RF, SLB, STT, TFC, WBS, and WIT report.

So far this morning, BAC, FHN, INFY, MTB, MS, PNC, TSM, and USB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, UNH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

With that background, the market seems undecided this morning.  All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket.  However, all three have also printed black-body candles since that point, with DIA being the only one with significant wicks (and the larges of those is to the upside).  This indicates the market is uncertain that its gap up in the early session was warranted.  With that said, all three do remain above their T-line (8ema) and thus the short-term trend is bullish.  It is worth noting that SPY and QQQ joined DIA (by virtue of their premarket gap higher) in being above their mid-term downtrend line which extends back to mid-December.  So, the downtrends are broken but a new bullish trend (higher-highs and higher-lows) hasn’t been established.  In the long-term all three are bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the three are too extended above their T-line, but they are starting to push things.  For its part, T2122 is now in the overbought range. So, both sides have room to work today.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green with NFLX (+1.29%) leading the way while META (-1.54%) lags.  Related to volume, NVDA (+0.92%) is leading TSLA (-0.96%) by about 25% with TSLA having traded five times as much as the next closest ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

LTA Scanning Software
TC2000 Discount

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Strong Bank Earnings

by
Strong Bank Earnings

S&P 500 futures climbed on Thursday, following the benchmark index’s best performance since November, driven by a favorable inflation report and strong bank earnings. Investors are eagerly awaiting further economic insights, with the December retail sales report anticipated to show a 0.5% increase, slightly down from November’s 0.7% rise, according to Dow Jones estimates. Additionally, weekly jobless claims are expected to be released. Earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are also on the docket, concluding the earnings season for major banks.

European markets experienced a positive surge on Thursday, driven by impressive performances in the luxury and technology sectors. Luxury stocks soared, particularly those of Cartier, which reported strong results. This uplift was mirrored in the shares of France’s LVMH, Kering, and Christian Dior, all of which saw gains of around 8%. Retailers such as Moncler, Burberry, Swatch, and Hermes also performed well, clustering at the top of the Stoxx index. Technology stocks rose by 1.87%, with chip companies like ASM International and Be Semiconductor benefiting from better-than-expected earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

Asia-Pacific markets saw a positive trend on Thursday, with most indices recording gains. Korea’s central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3%, defying expectations. This decision seemed to bolster investor confidence, as the Kospi rose by 1.23% and the Kosdaq by 1.77%. The Korean won, however, weakened slightly, trading at 1,456.91 against the US dollar. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 edged up by 0.33%, while the Topix dipped marginally by 0.09%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.08%, and China’s CSI 300 saw a modest increase of 0.11%. Meanwhile, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced by 1.38%, despite a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4% in December from 3.9% in November.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday before the bell include BAC, FHN, IIIN, MTB, MS, PNC, UNH, & USB. After the bell reports include OZK, & JBHT.

News & Technicals’

British oil major BP announced on Thursday its plan to cut thousands of jobs as part of a significant cost-cutting initiative. The company informed staff that approximately 4,700 roles would be impacted by the proposed changes, constituting a large portion of this year’s anticipated reductions. Additionally, BP plans to reduce its contractor numbers by 3,000. These measures aim to lower costs, following CEO Murray Auchincloss’s statement last year that BP intends to achieve at least $2 billion in cash savings by the end of 2026.

Target raised its fourth-quarter sales forecast on Thursday, attributing the increase to a surge in holiday shopping both in-store and online, especially during major discount days. The retailer now expects comparable sales to grow by about 1.5%, an improvement from its previous projection of flat growth. This metric includes sales from Target’s website and stores open for at least 13 months. Despite the positive sales outlook, Target did not revise its profit forecast, suggesting that the boost in sales was driven by promotional deals. The company anticipates fourth-quarter earnings per share to range between $1.85 and $2.45.

The Biden administration announced an executive order on cybersecurity on Thursday, introducing new standards for companies selling to the U.S. government and requiring greater transparency from software providers. This move follows several high-profile ransomware attacks on entities like Change Healthcare, Colonial Pipeline, and Ascension health care system. Additionally, Microsoft revealed in 2023 that Chinese attackers had breached U.S. government officials’ email accounts, leading to a critical federal report and subsequent changes at the company. Under the new order, software vendors must prove their development practices are secure, with evidence to be posted on a government website for the benefit of all software users, as stated by Neuberger.

Although we have seen some strong big bank earnings, the regional banks appear to be struggling a bit this morning.  Continue to expect wild volatility and remember we have three day weekend just around the corner with the inauguration that could easily create some bumpiness due tot the big changes that are expected.

Trade Wisely,

Doug