Tuesday saw just under a one percent gap higher in the QQQ and a half percent gap up in the SPY.  This was followed by intraday fading of the gap followed by the normal volatility up to mid-day. At that point, a rally lasting all afternoon ran all 3 major indices to close near their highs.  This gave us white hammer type candles in all those indices.  On the day, DIA closed up 0.50%, SPY up 1.02%, and QQQ up 1.86%.  VXX also gained slightly to 25.36 and T2122 rose, but still remains in the oversold territory at 14.47.  10-year bond yields were flat at 0.672% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $39.55/barrel. All-in-all, not a bad day given the September selloff we have seen so far.

As expected, Fed Chair Powell told Congress more fiscal stimulus is needed in his testimony.  Treasury Sec. Mnuchin agreed, but put in a qualifier on the statement, saying “I believe a targeted package is still needed”  However, Chief Economic Advisor Kudlow told reporters that more stimulus was not needed, but a targeted package could be a great help to a V-shaped recovery.  In an unrelated story, a deal was reached overnight to keep the government open and was passed by the House last night and sent to Senate. The deal includes more funds for school meals and more funds for farm aid.

Bloomberg reported interesting news in the vaccine race.  PFE has said they will do a results analysis as soon as they reach 32 vaccinated but also infected patients (vaccine failures) and expect this to be next week. They will consider any participant who both tests positive and has any symptom to be one of their cases. So, I guess a positive test alone does not count as a vaccine failure.  (32 seems like an awfully small number to draw any conclusions from in a test planned to use 44,000 subjects, but they are looking at failures.)  This will also be the first of four attempts (an unprecedented number apparently) with the last being when they reach 164 cases, to find a good enough ratio to prove efficacy.  This approach gives PFE a leg up on finding a “first proven vaccine” over rivals like MRNA (which won’t take a first peek until they find 53 failure cases on their way to 151 cases) and AZN (which will take its first look at 75 cases on the way to 150 cases).

In addition, apparently none of the current Phase 3 trials will know if their vaccine candidate actually lowers the number of hospitalizations until February.  Yet PFE is said to expect to have reached a conclusion on their candidate sometime in October, based on an extrapolation from a much smaller dataset than the actual whole trial.  This multi-look approach gives PFE an edge on being first to find a “viable vaccine,” which is all the market likely cares about at least initially.  In an unrelated story, the FDA said Tuesday it is tightening the approval standards, which may well slow vaccine emergency use approval.  This seems contrary to the Bloomberg article, but the FDA “tightening” may just be a vaccine acceptance PR tactic.  Additionally, JNJ has said this morning they are also entering Phase 3 trials of their own candidate vaccine with hopes of enrolling 60,000 participants in the weeks and months to come.

On the virus front itself, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,098,291 confirmed cases and 205,491 deaths.  The daily new case count was down at less than 36,000, but the 7-day average of new cases remains over 41,000 per day.  Deaths came back to a more typical number of 969 after the unexpected drop on Monday.  However, that drop did pull down the average deaths to 735/day.  The President said Tuesday that the US will remain open regardless of the new measures underway in Europe or the UK. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 31,824,908 confirmed cases and 976,155 deaths.  So, the globe is seeing about 300,000 newly reported cases and 6,000 reported deaths per day.  As expected, the UK re-entered a partial national lockdown Tuesday.  UK PM Johnson urged workers to work from home if at all possible, reduced pub/restaurant hours, reduced permissible gathering sizes, etc. However, he stopped short of an actual 14-day national lockdown that some advisors were urging.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on moderate moves with the obvious exception of Australia which was up almost 2.5%.  Japan, South Korea, and Shanghai were just on the green side of break-even while Japan was on the red side of flat.  Taiwan was down half a percent.  However, in Europe we are seeing green across the board so far today on significant moves.  The FTSE is up 2.3%, DAX up 1.65%, and CAC up 1.9% at midday.  As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing higher.  The QQQ is lagging with an implied open up 0.2%, but the SPY is looking toward a 0.4% gap up and the DIA 0.8% higher open. 

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to September PMI (9:45 am), Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Chair Powell testifies again at 10 am, Mester at 9 am, and Quarles at 2 pm).  However, there are major earnings reports with CTAS, GIS, and JKS before the open. Then FUL reports after the close.

The strong close Tuesday and apparent gap coming this morning certainly look like the rebound is in play. Remember that we still have a number of potential resistance levels above, but price gets the only vote that counts (especially in the short term). Continue to be wary of volatility and keep in mind that the trend still remains bearish. So, be careful chasing unless you are fast or can take the heat. However, it looks like a bulish morning. Stick to your rules, keep locking-in profits, and remember trading is a job for the long-haul…not a get rich quick scheme. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: DG, PENN, DHI, CZR, FSLY. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw a brutal gap down on virus concerns, another big bank scandal, and the political news related to the replacement (or not) of Justice Bader-Ginsberg.  Volatility continued all day with a later afternoon rally driving price back up into the gap.  The result as a strong white candle (if you look past the gap down) in the QQQ, but big indecision in the DIA and a white Hammer in the SPY.  On the day, QQQ gained 0.24%, SPY lost 1.04%, and DIA lost 1.84%.  Oddly, VXX did not shoot higher, rising only to 25.16, but T2122 sank clear to the bottom of the oversold range at 2.28.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.672% and Oil (WTI) also fell 3.5% to $39.65/barrel.

During the day House Speaker Pelosi proposed the Democratic bill for additional stopgap funding to keep the government running past the September 30 deadline.  However, Senate Majority Leader McConnell immediately criticized the bill because it did not contain the additional money for farm aid that the President wanted added.  To be fair, many things were not in the bill, including extra funding for the Democrat favorite food assistance program.  It was not mentioned, but another fundamental difference between the sides is that Republicans want the bill to include funding through January 2021 (when the next Congress is seated) while Democrats want funding only through the election.  In this case, the Democratic bill offered a compromise of funding through December 20.

In the pre-release of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for today he says “Many economic indicators show economic indicators show marked improvement…Both employment and overall economic activity, however, remain well below their pre-pandemic levels, and the path ahead continues to be highly uncertain,”  He goes on to push for more virus control and stimulus as he also says “The path forward will depend on keeping the virus under control, and on policy actions taken at all levels of government.”  Both he and Treasury Sec. Mnuchin are likely to face questions on the massively unused Fed Main Street Loan program (which stimulus legislation cannot be forgiven) as opposed to the PPP loan program many expect to be forgiven.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,046,444 confirmed cases and 204,515 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is rising again, now over 41,000 per day.  However, deaths dropped dramatically for some unknown reason to just 388 on Monday.  This dropped the average to just under 800/day.  Republicans in the Senate proposed $28 billion in aid for the airline industry ($3 billion more than asked) in an attempt to stave off 30,000 job cuts now planned in two weeks.  This is likely a DOA proposal since the two parties have not agreed to an overall stimulus plan.

Globally, the numbers rose to 31,517,736 confirmed cases and 970,077 deaths.  In the UK, there were ominous signs Monday.  The country’s 2 top scientists addressed a presser where they said the UK is back to 10,000 new cases per day in a growth rate that may send them to 50,000/day by mid-October unless the spread is arrested (implied as a new national lock-down).  The government then raised the alert level to 4 (transmission if high or rising exponentially).  Level 5 is another national lockdown.  PM Johnson is set to address an emergency meeting, Parliament, and the Public Tuesday where many expect additional measures to be announced.  (JPM says that if another 2-week lockdown were to happen, it would knock another 2% off the UK’s 2020 GDP.)  Elsewhere in Europe, Spain has reentered partial national lockdown (and full lockdown in Madrid) and France cases continue to spike in various cities

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red again.  Japan eked out a small gain while New Zealand and Malaysia managed slightly better, but still modest gains.  However, China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong were all down over 1% and South Korea lost 2.4% on the day.  In Europe, the picture is brighter as we find modest green numbers across the board as of mid-day. Again today, the DAX leads the way, up just under 1% so far.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed.  The Large-Caps are on either side of flat, but the NASDAQ is pointing to a half-percent gap higher at the open.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to August Existing Home Sales (10 am) and, as mentioned, Fed Chair Powell testifies (10:30 am).  On the earnings front, the only major announcements scheduled are AZO before the open and KBH and NKE after the close.

Markets may be looking to bounce back from Monday’s ugly start to the week. Possibly Fed Chair Powell’s soothing talk of “more stimulus as long as it’s needed” will do the trick. However, no more progress on the fiscal stimulus side and political rancor will not help. News of the expansion of virus-fighting measures in the UK (and the rest of Europe) is also going to be a damper.

Remember that we’ve seen “gap and fade” or “gap and indecision” for some time. So, be careful chasing unless you are fast or can take the heat. Follow the trend, which is clearly bearish now, don’t think you can pick bottoms, but also don’t chase moves that have gotten away. Stick to your rules, keep locking-in profits, and remember trading is a job for the long-haul…not a get rich quick scheme. 

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: PENN, NVTA, DDOG, FDX, PGR, LH, TGT, CZR, WHR, DGX, FSLY. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets saw a minor gap down Friday, but it was immediately followed up by a strong selloff that lasted until 1:30 pm.  However, the bears called a week at that point and the bulls put in a relief rally into the close.  On the day we still saw ugly black candles that failed the 50sma, including a Bearish Engulfing in the QQQ.  At the close, DIA was down 1.09%, SPY down 1.55%, and QQQ down 1.28%.  The VXX was flat at 24.37 and T2122 fell back to 34.91.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to 0.697% and Oil (WTI) was flat on the day at $40.98/barrel.  This culminated a 3^rd consecutive down week, in volatile trading.

On Saturday President Trump approved the ORCL / WMT and Byte Dance deal but did so while saying it includes a $5 billion fund to pay for an educational project.  Byte Dance announced they were unaware that any such fund was part of the deal.  So, that part of the announcement appears to be more gamesmanship by the President.  The deal will also still need the approval of the Chinese government.  However, Monday a Chinese state-backed media outlet called the deal “unfair but reasonable” in a possible preview of the official reaction.

To give that deal time to reach approvals, the President did extend the deadline for a ban on TikTok until next week.  However, on Sunday a Federal judge blocked the Administration ban of TikTok and WeChat altogether. (Although a long back-and-forth legal battle is expected up through the tiers of courts.)  So, momentarily it appeared that ORCL and WMT had gotten what they wanted (a toehold in the Social Media space) and they still may. However, that clarity was quickly replaced in favor of more political and legal limbo.

The big US banks are reportedly back in hot water (and reacting in pre-market). US Government files were leaked this morning showing that at least JPM and BK, had joined Germany’s Deutsche Bank and the UK’s Standard Chartered to launder $2 trillion in illicit funds over nearly 2 decades.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 7,004,990 confirmed cases and 204,118 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases is rising again at 41,330 per day.  However, the average for deaths (which lags) is still trending down at 800 per day.  Meanwhile, on Friday, the CDC reversed its caving to political pressure and changed its guidance for asymptomatic individuals.  The new guidance says that anyone who is exposed to an infected person needs a be tested, regardless of whether or not they show symptoms.  Bloomberg reported that this change was planned earlier, but delayed by a long “review and approval” by Administration outside the CDC.  On Sunday we learned that 31 states have more new cases this week than last and 25 of those states have a higher test result positivity than the previous week.  The fear is that this is another example of a holiday-caused surge as too many Americans ignore guidelines or have relaxed their adherence

Globally, the numbers rose to 31,263,651 confirmed cases and 965,398 deaths.  Even with the new lock-down in the Northeast of their country, UK cases are rising.  Sunday talk was that London is the next potential “local” mini-lockdown (2 weeks) as the Mayor met with the City Council in private session Sunday while UK PM Johnson is expected to address the country again as soon as Tuesday.  In Germany, mandatory mask use has been reintroduced in areas (Munich region).  Elsewhere, the recent Australian whole state lockdown has been vindicated as restrictions are beginning to ease and the new case count has dropped by a factor of 60.

Overnight, Asian markets were back to being mixed, but the largest economies leaned positive.  China was up 1.5-2%, while Japan and South Korea were on the green side of flat.  Europe has seen a similar situation so far this morning.  However, European moves have been more modest and lean more to the red side at this point.  The FTSE and CAC are on the red side of flat while the DAX is up a third of a percent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed with the large-caps split modestly on either side of break-even and the NASDAQ pointing toward a half percent gap higher.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to 3 Fed speakers (Chair Powell at 10 am, Brainard at noon, Williams at 2 pm).  Once again there are no major earnings reports on the day.

Coming off the first 3-week losing streak since March, markets look set to gap lower at the open Monday. However, “gap and rebound” volatility has been the norm in volatile markets recently.  So, be careful, but, as always, stick to your plans. Follow the trend, but don’t chase moves you have missed.  (There is always another trade coming soon…no need to suffer FOMO.)  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw a strong gap lower (about 1.6%).  This was met with a strong rally that faded most of that gap by 11:15 am, but then the bears stepped back in and sold back off back to the lows by 12:30 pm.  The rest of the day was smaller waves in the roller coaster ride.  The 50sma held as support in the SPY, but the QQQ has given up the 50sma and the DIA has not reached it yet.  On the day, QQQ lost 1.56%, SPY lost 0.87%, and DIA lost 0.52%.  All closed up off the lows, but far from the highs as well.  The VXX closed down again to 24.38 and T2122 was back down to 46.63.  10-year bond yields were up slightly to 0.689% and Oil (WTI) rose again to $41.04/barrel.

White House Chief of Staff Meadows met with Airline executives during the day and after the meeting told the press that the President supports $25 billion of “narrow” relief for the industry.  (The industry, led by UAL, AAL, and unions have been seeking that amount in additional relief funds for the last month or so.  The threat has been that if they cannot get the additional bailout funds, on top of the recent buyouts, retirements and furloughs, a major wave of new layoffs would come as soon as this fall.)  No word on plans to execute on a bailout or of specific legislation offered. However, they did get the President’s public support of the additional $25 billion (although it did not come directly from the President and the term “narrow” was not defined).

After the close, the Fed announced it will decide by the end of the month if it will continue capping Big Bank dividends.  (For reference WFC was one of the big banks to reduce dividends when the cap was announced in June.) This news comes as another stress test will be started soon.  However, in a change from the previous protocol, this time around the Fed says it will publish company-specific stress findings for each of the 34 institutions it tests.  The Fed announcement went on to outline two severe recession scenarios it will use in the stress testing of reserves this time around.

On Thursday ORCL and Byte Dance both agreed to a Treasury Dept. change of terms for their partnership deal.  The changes were aimed at heading off the White House  national security concerns (oddly that Byte Dance cannot access to user-tracking information the same way that AMZN, GOOG, AAPL, FB, MSFT, other App makers and every Internet Service Provider already use and track the same customer usage/tracking data).  The two other main provisions are ORCL getting complete access to TikTok source code and the entire board of the new company being made up of American citizens regardless of new the company being a foreign entity or what the ownership shares will be.  In a potential twist, WMT is now expected to partner with ORCL on the deal. (In last-second news, it was just announced the White House will block downloads of TikTok and WeChat as of Sunday. No word on the approval/disapproval of the Treasury-revised deal.)

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,875,103 confirmed cases and 202,219 deaths.  We saw another uptick to 46,295 new cases (well above the 7-day average), but new deaths dropped off a bit to 879 (still just above the 7-day average). In good news, TX moved forward to the next step in their reopening.  They now allow all retail stores, office buildings, restaurants, factories, gyms, and museums to reopen immediately at 75% capacity as long as the hospitals in their region stay below capacity thresholds.

Globally, the numbers rose to 30,380,035 confirmed cases and 951,150 deaths.  In the UK, the Northeast region of England has re-entered lockdown in an effort to stop a new surge in cases.  Other areas of the country are implementing partial measures such as limiting gatherings to single-family and stopping counter restaurant and bar service (so-called table service only).  This comes as testing demand is over 1 million per day, but capacity is only 230,000 tests/day. In Parliament, Government Ministers blamed the public for the problem, saying that only people told by a health professional should attempt to be tested.

Overnight, Asian markets were back to being mixed, but the largest economies leaned positive.  China was up 1.5-2%, while Japan and South Korea were on the green side of flat.  Europe has seen a similar situation so far this morning.  However, European moves have been more modest and lean more to the red side at this point.  The FTSE and CAC are on the red side of flat while the DAX is up a third of a percent at mid-day.  As of 7:30 am, US futures are mixed with the large-caps split modestly on either side of break-even and the NASDAQ pointing toward a half percent gap higher.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  Once again there are no major earnings reports on the day. However, this is Options Expiration Friday.

Gap and fade or indecision seems to be the standard operating procedure in markets recently.  So, be careful of volatility.  Also, don’t get caught off-guard by any pinning related to options expiration today.  (There are a lot of inexperienced options traders out there right now that Mr. Market has to introduce to the pinning trick.)  As always, stick to your plans, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.  (There is always another trade coming soon…no need to suffer FOMO.)  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Also remember that Friday is payday.  So, take a paycheck and consider whether you want to lighten up or hedge going into the weekend news cycles. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: NIO, DOW, DFS, GPC, COF, MMM, KSS, TRUE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw another gap higher (about 3 or 4 tenths of a percent) in spite of an August Retail Sales number that missed estimates by 40%.  The roller coaster ride followed with the climax being a strong rally at 2pm (after the Fed said interest rates will remains near zero for at least 3 years) and an even stronger selloff at 3pm.  On the day SPY was down 0.38%, DIA up 0.16%, and QQQ down 1.59% as the techs continued to get hammered.  This gave us big bearish candles in the QQQ and SPY as well as an ugly high wick in the DIA.  Oddly enough VXX also fell on the day, ending at 24.96 and T2122 climbed to 71.71.  10-year bond yield rose slightly to 0.697% and Oil (WTI) was up over 5% to $40.24/barrel.

As mentioned, the big news on the day was the Fed confirming what individual Fed voters have been saying for quite some time.  The FOMC will hold rates essentially at zero percent for years to come, specifically at least through 2023.  Nonetheless, they also improved their GDP forecast to a 3.7% contraction (when the last forecast was for a 6% contraction as recently as June).  However, on the other side, they also reduced the 2021 GDP forecast from 5% growth to 4% growth.  Chair Powell also said the Fed is working on changes to the Main Street Lending Program (which has been a flop with less than one-quarter of one percent of available funds being requested as loans as of now) to make it more widely accessed.

President Trump took a step back from his former position and called on the GOP to support a much larger stimulus package than either the Administration or the Senate Republicans had previously said they would accept.  He didn’t mention a specific amount, but White House Chief of Staff Meadows later told the press that $1.5 trillion could be acceptable.  (This number is halfway between the Republicans original $1 trillion and the Democrats most recent offer of $2 trillion.  However, it’s a full trillion dollars over what Senate Republicans had wanted in their “Skinny Bill” as late as last week.)  Both Meadows and House Speaker Pelosi said they are more hopeful of a deal now than they have been in 3 months.  Senate Majority Leader McConnell refused to comment.  For his part Fed Chair Powell reiterated that he still feels more fiscal support is likely needed with 11 million people out of work, small businesses struggling and local government revenues having dropped. In an unrelated story, House Republicans are moving to force a vote to re-issue the $138 billion of PPP program funds that went unrequested from the last stimulus bill. It’s unclear if there would be more demand now than earlier, but it is a sound political move and the market loves stimulus whether real or paper.

As for the ORCL- Byte Dance partnership deal for TikTok US operations, both Sec. of State Pompeo and President Trump said they don’t like what they have heard.  While not an outright disapproval of the deal, it cannot be seen as a positive thing with just 3 days remaining until the White House-imposed deadline.  On the positive side, the President did admit that he has given up on the government “getting a lot of money” for forcing the deal (government lawyers have explained to him that is not legal).  Still, that was never a real obstacle to a deal.  The crux of the issue is that the White House insists on a sale of the business and its technology assets while China has said it will not allow the sale of the technology (search and user interest tracking algorithms, etc.).  On top of that, apparently no suitor has offered what Byte Dance feels is fair compensation for the entire business (the Oracle deal would leave Byte Dance with majority ownership in the new shell company).

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,828,698 confirmed cases and 201,366 deaths.  We saw another uptick to 40,154 new cases and 1,151 deaths. On Wednesday CDC Director Redfield told a Senate committee that masks are the most important tool we have and may well be more effective than a vaccine.  In the same testimony, he said most people will not be able to access a vaccine until mid-2021 and the process would take 6-9 months to get enough people vaccinated twice to provide community herd immunity. (Beyond the supply issues, another hurdle will be the public.  Two days ago, a non-partisan 1,200 respondent Kaiser Foundation poll found that only 42% of Americans will get vaccinated even when it is available.)  In a different hearing, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told House lawmakers that while October data is theoretically possible, he expects data about the efficacy and safety of the early vaccine candidates to become available in November or December. (Oddly, he also said that US phase 3 trials are still only about two-thirds enrolled with approved healthy participants at this point.)  However, as he often does, President Trump told reporters that the experts were wrong, large-scale vaccine distribution will begin about mid-October and 100 million vaccine doses will have already been distributed in the US by year-end. 

Globally, the numbers rose to 30,073,744 confirmed cases and 945,817 deaths.  The WHO came out against “Covid-19 passports” (passports that would allow test-free and quarantine-free travel for people with antibodies), because there are no studies on how universal immunity would be or how long immunity lasts.  The renewed spread in Europe continues, but that is dwarfed by India, which reported a record high of 97,800 new cases today.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board, with the lone exception of Shenzhen which managed +0.08%.  The biggest losers were Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australia which were all down over 1.2%.  Europe has followed Asia so far today with red across the board.  However, only the Netherlands is down more than a percent as of 7:30am.  Speaking of that time, as of then the US futures are pointing to a gap lower. The Nasdaq implies a gap down of 1.63%, the SPY a dap down of 1.13%, and the DIA a gap down of 0.81%. 

The major economic news for Thursday includes August Building Permits, August Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am).  However, once again there are no major earnings reports on the day.

Be careful of volatility with gap and reverse being the norm recently in the mornings.  Stick to your plans.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon.  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Remember, trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: TRUE, COF, MDB, MKC, HLT, ADSK, MMM, WFC, PYPL, AXP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw another significant gap higher followed by an afternoon selloff that left us with indecisive black candles.  None of the 3 major indices were able to break out of their consolidation range of the last week.  However, 8 of the 10 major sectors were up on the day, with Financial Services and Energies being the outliers.  On the day SPY gained 0.49%, DIA was flat at +0.02%, and QQQ gained 1.42%.  The VXX was also flat at 25.02 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) fell back to mid-point at 51.83.  10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.682% and Oil (WTI) was up almost 3% to $38.32/barrel.

During the day AAPL announced a slew of product refreshes but added a long-awaited bundle of AAPL services (subscription to music, TV, arcade and cloud storage) for $15/mo.  Wall Street had been pushing the company to offer a subscription bundle revenue stream. AAPL also announced a fitness line aimed to compete with PTON.  On the day AAPL was flat and PTON initially dropped but recovered for a 4.19% gain.

Hurricane Sally made landfall in AL overnight.  As a Category 2 storm, the fear appears to be more about torrential rain and wind damage than major storm surge or large-scale inundation.  However, AL, and FL businesses could see disruptions from the storm.  It appears that in most measures, the West Coast fires and smoke are still the worst natural disasters impacting the country.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,788,471 confirmed cases and we have now had over 200k deaths at 200,197.  This comes after a small uptick yesterday in a still (by US standards) “mild day” of 38,286 cases and 1,197 deaths.  In a related story, the political operator placed as head of communications of HHS (the one who has changed reported numbers to fit Admin. narrative) publicly apologized for his most recent “deep state,” “sedition,” and related unfounded conspiracy theories that he has used to justify massaging the numbers provided by career scientists. Meanwhile, FDX reported a continued demand surge in the last quarter from pandemic-related orders. And SBUX reports same-store sales were down only 11% in August versus 2019 as the recovery continues.

Globally, the numbers rose to 29,764,825 confirmed cases and 939,962 deaths.  The OECD now estimates the global economic contraction to be just 4.5% for the year.  While this is still an unparalleled drop in global GDP, that is much better than their mid-year forecast of -6%.  In Ireland, the entire cabinet is self-isolating and Parliament has been suspended following infections and a recent test.  Meanwhile, Germany’s Education and Research Minister told a news briefing that she does not expect a vaccine to be widely available until mid-2021.  At the same presser, the Health Minister said between 55% and 65% of the population would need to have already been vaccinated for it to control the virus in the population.  In the neighboring Czech Republic they saw a record number of new cases and in France, dozens of schools have been closed in the last week as their own cases are increasing again.  Spain has also brought on new restrictions to fight its own increase.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned a touch more to the red side Wednesday.  The NIKKEI and Hong Kong were flat with China and South Korea down.  The remainder (smaller markets) were mostly green.  Europe is also mixed this morning with the big 3 bourses all just on the red side of flat as traders wait on hints about the Fed statement (which comes after the European closes).  In the US, at 7:45 am, the futures are pointing to another green open.  The large-caps are implying an open up 0.40% with the NASDAQ implying a green but flat open. 

Wednesday is a big day for major economic news with August Retail Sales (8:30 am), July Business Inventories (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Q3 Interest Rate Projection (both at 2 pm), and FOMC Press Conf. (2:30 pm).  However, there are no major earnings reports on Wednesday.

We remain range-bound with gaps being the main move of the day. There is not a bullish trend yet, but the bearish trend has been broken. So be careful of volatility with gaps and indecisive swings controlling the market. That said, the market seems to be waiting on the Fed today. This is a bit odd since nobody expects a rate change and Fed officials (including the chair) have already often and repeatedly said rates will remain at essentially zero for years to come. So, I do not know what markets want or expect to hear…let alone what they might hear this afternoon.

Regardless, beware of the volatility. Stick to your plans.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon.  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Remember, trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: CWH, DRI, PYPL, TSM, LYV, FSM, BBY, ALLY, KSS, ETFC. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was another indecisive day with at gap up and then no follow-through.  This left all 3 major indices stuck in what could certainly be a bottom, but could also be consolidation before another leg down.  On the day the SPY was up 1.31%, DIA up 1.26%, and QQQ up 1.74%, but all closed well off their highs.  The VXX fell again to 25.10 and T2122 rose sharply (out of oversold territory) to 70.49.  10-year bond yields rose slightly to 0.674% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $37.29/barrel. 

During the day, ORCL confirmed that they had reached a deal with Byte Dance to partner with TikTok for US operations.  However, the parties are counting on President Trump to back off his original demands, because there would be no outright sale to ORCL in the agreed deal.  This leaves an open question because of the political points to be made, as well as the ties of ORCL Execs to the President.  All this is on top of the President’s demand that the US government get “a lot of money” out of the deal.  So, several headlines Monday, but nothing definitive yet

The House is working on a Continuing Resolution to keep the government funded past the end of the fiscal year on Oct. 1st.  Treasury Sec. Mnuchin (negotiating for Republicans) has agreed with Speaker of the House Pelosi that the only topic for this bill will be the CR (no stimulus).  Republicans want the new funding to only last until just past the election, while the Democrats want it to last through the swearing-in of the next Congress.  Negotiations are still underway about the funding levels of the CR (and probably pork) and no vote is expected until next week, giving the Senate just enough time for an up/down vote on keeping the government open.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,749,406 confirmed cases and 199,018 deaths.  This comes after a “mild day” of 37,000 cases and 480 deaths.  While AZN has restarted its UK trial on its vaccine, the US trial remains halted until at least mid-week after while the FDA investigates a severe neurological problem in one of the trial participants.  In FL there has been a 26% increase in cases among children in the month since school began again.  In MI, MSU has ordered the quarantine of all fraternities and sororities after hundreds of cases have been found in those groups.

Globally, the numbers rose to 29,474,968 confirmed cases and 933,423 deaths.  In the UK, there is a test shortage causing people to travel hundreds of miles or (as had been the case in the US a month ago) wait weeks for results or both.  This comes as the UK is only processing 200,000 tests per day.  In Austria, cases are rising as their government warns of a second wave starting.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned toward the green on moderate moves to either side.  Thailand and Malaysian were the only countries to move more than a percent positive and Indonesia the only one to move more than a percent negative.  The major bourses moved about a half percent to the green except Japan which did the opposite.  However, in Europe we are seeing green across the board so far today.  The FTSE leads the big 3, up 1% with the DAX and CAC seeing much more moderate moves as of mid-day.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to another gap higher at the open.  The NASDAQ is leading, implying a gap of nearly 1% while both large-cap indices imply a gap up of 0.70% as of now.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes August Import/Export price Index and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), and August Industrial Production (9:15 am).  The only major earnings reports on the day are ADBE and FDX after the close.

The lack of follow-through after Monday’s gap has not dampened bull spirits.  It seems another gap higher is in the cards this morning.  However, remember we don’t have a bullish trend yet (on the daily at least) and we are still inside that bottoming area that could go either way.   Perhaps the markets are waiting on more news from the Fed or Congress, but we have the 50sma below and the top of the bottoming congestion above acting as at least temporary limiters.

Be careful of volatility.  Stick to your plans.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon.  Hang in there with your rules and keep locking-in profits.  Remember, trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. 

Ed

Swing Trade ideas for your Consideration and Watchlist: SYF, HWM, CFG, JCI, AUY, JETS, LYV, DRI, WKHS, KSS, FSM. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a volatile day, opening with a half-to-three-quarters of a percent gap higher, riding the roller-coaster within a 2-3% range and closing with indecisive black candles.  On the day, DIA was up 0.47%, SPY flat at up 0.05%, and QQQ down 0.69%.  The dreaded-h pattern remains in place for all three indices with potential support at the breakdown level.  Oddly, the VXX was down hard (almost 6%) to 25.52 and T2122 remains well into the oversold area at 9.03.  10-year bond yields fell to 0.669% and Oil (WTI) was up slightly to $37.33/barrel.

On Sunday it was announced GILD will buy IMMU for $21 billion in order to add the IMMU breast-cancer treatments to their catalog.  In other takeover news, overnight NVDA bought British chipmaker ARM (from Japan’s Softbank).  The co-founder of ARM immediately attacked the deal as a disaster because inevitably NVDA would move the company to the US.  The deal is most noteworthy because AAPL recently announced they are dropping the INTC architecture in favor of the ARM architecture (rebranded as “Apple Silicon” as if AAPL had somehow designed or built the chips).

In trade war news, ORCL seems to be the winner in the TikTok forced-buyout deal as Byte Dance has rejected the joint MSFT / WMT bid.  However, over the weekend the Chinese government, which must approve the sale, said the TikTok algorithm would not be part of any sale and no official deal announcement has yet been made.  Still, this should be looked on favorably by US administration officials given ties to both the CEO and Chairman of ORCL.  If announced this week, the deal would beat the White House-imposed September 20 deal deadline.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,710,031 confirmed cases and 198,533 deaths.  As of Sunday, cases are growing by more than 5% on the weekly average in only 11 states, which is a big improvement over a couple weeks ago.  However, troublingly over the weekend is was reported that political appointees at HHS have been given the ability to review and demand changes to case and mortality data from the CDC.  In brighter news, on Sunday, PFE said they may have up to hundreds of thousands of doses (2 doses required per patient) of their vaccine by year-end…if it passes Phase 3 trials and if it is immediately approved by the FDA for emergency use.  Of course, in the same interview, PFE’s CEO also said “there was a good chance they would know IF their vaccine works, and how well, by the end of October.  Until then, all that can be done is to plan using the best-case scenario.”

Globally, the numbers rose to 29,216,069 confirmed cases, and 929,056 deaths.  On Saturday AZN resumed its Phase 3 trial (oddly just days after saying it would resume by year-end). Meanwhile, the case surge in France continues as their Health Minister said there was a “clear deterioration of the virus situation (especially hospitalizations),” although there was a slight dip in new cases on Sunday.  In the middle-east, Israel has approved a second general lockdown of their country.  And in Asia, South Korea is stockpiling PPE for Winter, while China announced there was no need to vaccinate the country’s entire population at this stage, (instead just focusing on frontline workers and other select groups).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but generally positive with Indonesia (+2.89%) far outpacing everyone, followed by South Korea (+1.3%) and Shenzhen (+1.15%).  All other Asian markets were either modest winners of modest losers.  In Europe, markets are also mixed but split more evenly at this point in their day.  The big 3 European indices are mixed with 2 modest losers and the CAC up 0.21% as of now.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a strong gap higher at the open.  The DIA is the laggard, showing an implied gap higher of 0.87%, but SPY is looking at +1.21% and QQQ at + 1.64% as of now.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday release.  And the only major earnings reports on the day is LEN after the close.

After a bull trap on Thursday and a less than stellar Friday, markets look to be charging into the new week.   The trend remains to the downside, but the 50sma area may have given support for all 3 major indices.  It certainly looks as though we will gap up through the downtrend. However, remember this is not the same thing as starting an uptrend.  In recent months it has been the mega-tech FAANG names that have led markets higher.  It is possible the TikTok and/or NVDA-ARM deal is helping them find their legs again.  Regardless, gaps are gifts, but otherwise, nothing we can take advantage of…and they are a signal of more volatility.

So, regardless of the open, stick with your plan.  Follow the trend and don’t chase moves you have missed…there will be another one soon. Stick to your rules and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk. 

Ed

Trade ideas for Monday: XYL, IP, SYF, NIO, LYV, JCI, LYFT, DOW, FCX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped more than a percent higher (2% in the QQQ) on Wednesday.  They then followed-through in the morning before grinding sideways until late-day selling closed all 3 major indices well off their highs.  On the day QQQ gained 2.94%, SPY gained 1.97%, and DIA gained 1.61%.  The VXX fell hard to 26.83 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold range up to 31.21.  10-year bond yields rose a bit to 0.698% and Oil (WTI) rose nearly 3% to $37.78/barrel.

CNBC reported that several economists have told them that $3 trillion of additional fiscal stimulus is needed to support the economy.  The economist interviewed said those funds should be used to incentivize remote working and help the unemployed.  At the same time in Congress, the Senate Republicans plan to vote on just $500 billion (Democrats say it will not pass) while the talks between the Administration and House Speaker Pelosi’s team are still stalled with the GOP side at $1 trillion and the Democrat side at $2 billion.

In the UK, PM Johnson is feeling great pressure after admitting there will very likely be no trade deal before the year end Brexit deadline.  Yesterday he proposed UK legislation that would break the withdrawal agreement (and other international trade agreements), by taking control over Irish, Scottish and Welsh foreign trade.  This was probably an attempt to use Ireland/Northern Ireland as negotiation leverage.  However, the act does jeopardize the UK-US trade agreement as well as the status of many global companies at risk as well.

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,549,771 confirmed cases and 195,245 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases has fallen to 37,248.  Meanwhile, deaths rose sharply to 1,209, well above the 7-day average of 753.  The Federal government has decided to drop testing for incoming International travelers.  

Globally, the numbers rose to 28,056,120 confirmed cases and 908,651 deaths.  In a surprising story, AZN says it should know by year-end if its vaccine trial can restart. This is potentially a much longer delay than markets had anticipated.  The Intl. Air Cargo Assn. reported overnight that even ignoring the temperature demands I reported yesterday, the world will still need 8,000 cargo jets the size of a BA 747 to distribute even a single dose of a vaccine worldwide.  (Of course, all the current vaccine candidates require 2 doses and it is undetermined how long that set of vaccinations would provide protection.)  In Europe cases continue to climb as France says they cannot rule out the need for more local lockdowns (although they will resist another national lockdown).  Meanwhile in Asia, India reported more than 95,000 new cases on the day and places like Indonesia have put the brakes on easing.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Shenzhen down over 2% while Japan and South Korea were up about 0.88%.  In Europe, so far today markets are mostly in the red, led to the downside by the FTSE after the UK’s Trade news.  In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing modestly to the downside with large-caps looking toward a half-percent gap down and the QQQ a gap 0.20% open lower.

The only major economic news for Thursday is Aug. PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The only major earnings reports on the day come after the close when AMRK, CHWY, and ORCL report.

The bulls had a nice day Wednesday.  However, markets closed well off their highs and so far this week, all we are showing is a lower-high. So be careful getting to long on the “buy the dip” sentiment that has surrounded markets for some time.  We are swing traders, not long-term holders and currently the short-term trend is still down.  So, follow the trend, but don’t chase moves you have missed.  Stick with your rules and work to consistently lock-in profits and reduce risk. 

Ed

Trade ideas for Thursday: PENN, OTRK, GOLD, ETSY, DDOG, W, OSTK, PDD, GLW. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On a brutal day in the markets, stocks gapped lower Tuesday, roller-coastered in a 1% range and then sold off into the close.  All 3 major indices closed near the lows with the QQQ sitting on its 50sma and both large-caps not far above their own.  On the day QQQ lost 4.81%, SPY lost 2.73%, and DIA lost 2.25%.  Oddly, the VXX also lost ground, closing at 28.28 and T2122 dropped hard to 6.03 (deep into the oversold territory).  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 0.68% and Oil (WTI) lost over 7% to close at $36.87/barrel.

In trading news, there has been much market talk recently about the impact of “Robinhood traders.”  Over the weekend Bloomberg reported a clue found in perplexing and worrisome options activity.  It appears (but isn’t known for sure) that retail (stuck at home) momentum traders have been piling into options causing over-sized moves…particularly in the high-flying high-tech names.  This inference is drawn from large volumes coming from small contract lot trades.  For example, CRM call open interest more than doubled on the day after its earnings release.  Another example is AMZN whose average daily call volume has spiked to the highest since the late 1990s.  The same is true across all the major FAANG names.  Finally, retail brokerages like AMTD, ETFC, SCHW, and IBKR have all reported record numbers of transactions.  The implication is that this may be a virus effect, but can also be a signal of irrational exuberance that has proceeded previous crashes.

Last night, AZN has paused its phase 3 vaccine trial in the UK after an unexpected and unexplained illness in a test subject.  Just to group the vaccine stories, PFE has been leaking that they believe their vaccine candidate may be ready to submit for emergency approval (prior to testing completion) in the US by late October.  However, that does not mean it would then be available widely or perhaps at all for quite a while beyond that point.

Last Weekend, articles in the Wall Street Journal and Barron’s said that freezers are the new hot commodity in the virus fight.  It seems the 2 vaccines furthest into Phase 3 testing in the US (from PFE and MRNA) both have strict storage needs.  One of them must be kept below -50 Fahrenheit (PFE) and the other must be kept at -5 Fahrenheit (MRNA).  Obviously, these temperature demands require high-end freezers and will reduce the amount that can be stored, the locations where they can be stored (freezer capacities), and even how they can be transported.  Given all these logistical hurdles, some experts were claiming that even best case there would be nothing beyond a paper rollout of these vaccines (even if everything goes perfectly in testing) until at least late Q1 2021.

However, it is worth noting that later vaccine candidates (like those from AZN and JNJ) are expected to have far less stringent temperature requirements.  As far as the vaccine Russia recently released, it can be freeze-dried.  This means it can be shipped and stored at room temperatures.  However, immunology experts say this also is an indication that the Russian vaccine is likely to be less effective.  (They guessed it might be 40% or less effective at producing antibodies with an even lower percent of users developing any significant immunity.)  Still, it’s available now and can be shipped/stored easily.)

On the virus front, in the US, the numbers show we now have 6,514,376 confirmed cases and 193,536 deaths.  The 7-day average of new cases has fallen to 38,101.  Meanwhile, average new deaths has also fallen to 737.  San Diego State and West Virginia are the most recent colleges to move to virtual classes only as 400 cases were found at the CA school, University of Tennessee announced 600 cases (especially among fraternities) and West Virginia University had 377 cases before moving to virtual.  On the bright side, Iowa has resumed athletic practices presumably in anticipation of a positive revote after political pressure on the B1G to restart fall sports seasons.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board as traders followed the US lead.  Shenzhen took the biggest hit (-3.22%) but losses were widespread with Japan, Shanghai, Korea and others all losing more than a percent.  In Europe, so far today markets are in the exact opposite is true.  There is green across the board with the big 3 bourses up strongly.  FTSE is up 0.76%, DAX up 0.86%, and a CAC up 0.38%. In the US, at 7:30 am, the futures are pointing to a gap higher (bull trap?) that includes big divergence.  The QQQ is implying an open up 1.30%.  Meanwhile, the SPY is looking toward a 0.50% gap up and the DIA just a 0.25% gap higher.

The only major economic news for Wednesday is July JOLTS (10 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  Major earnings reports on the day include AEO, HDS, and NAV before the open.  After the close GME and RH report.

Volatility reigns as a much-needed correction has or is taking place. Remember that you do not need to trade every day to be successful. So pick your spots. That said, as always, follow the trend that fits with your trading horizon, stick to your rules, and always lock-in those profits as you go.

Ed

Rick is out with his son and new grandbaby. So, no new trade ideas for Wednesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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