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May Payrolls Will Likely Set Direction

June 4, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Thursday, May ADP Nonfarm Payrolls came in 50% above expectation and the Weekly Jobless Claims came in slightly under estimates. Nonetheless, stock markets gapped down to start the day. The large-caps then immediately began fading the gap, before the sideways grind started at 11am and lasted the rest of the day. So, it was another day of pre-market move, immediate fade, and then just drifting sideways most of the session. This left gap-down indecisive Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY was down 0.36%, DIA was down 0.10%, and QQQ was down 1.08%. The VXX rose about 2% to 35.24 and T2122 fell just outside the overbought territory at 76.84. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.627% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $68,84/barrel.

During the day, the Washington Post reported that President Biden is pushing a 15% minimum corporate tax rate (for companies who pay little or no tax now). This was floated as a way to partially fund infrastructure spending. CNBC reported that this would raise tax revenues $140 billion over 10 years on top of the $700 billion that a new 28% normal corporate tax rate would raise. This news hit many major tech stocks hard, who fall into this category, including AMZN, NVDA, QCOM, NFLX, and MU. However, the implications are broader than just tech, as many names like MCD, PFE, and FEDX have all fallen into the group that have paid less than 15% in taxes in the past. In a completely unrelated story, FB was hit with new antitrust probes in the EU and UK overnight.

The AMC roller-coaster continued Thursday as gapped down 7%, suffered an 83% range for the day, halted trading multiple times, and closed down 18%. The company also completed the sale of 12 million new shares (announced during the premarket and completed by lunch) to rake in $587 million of new capital and outraging the Reddit group that had been squeezing the shorts. Then, overnight, the CEO of AMC told an interview that he wants to sell 25 million more new shares (twice as many as were issued Thursday). Unsurprisingly, the in the pre-market AMC is down in very volatile trading.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,174,752 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 611,611. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 15,549 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are now down to 390 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). The NIH has reported that a new oral treatment for Covid-19 (named TEMPOL, from ADMP) has shown promise in a study published in the journal Science. If approved, the drug would join GILD’s drug remdesivir as the only FDA-approved treatments for the disease. ADMP’s stock soared 61% on the news. In not so good news, the average number of vaccinations per day has fallen to about 800,000.

Globally, the numbers rose to 172,963,233 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,718,849 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 458,650 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 10,270 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red, on modes moves. Malaysia (-0.76%) and Taiwan (-0.57%) paced the losses while Shenzhen (+0.74%) and New Zealand (+0.53%) led the gainers. However, in Europe markets are mostly green on small moves so far today as the world waits on US data. The FTSE (-0.12%) is down, while the DAX (+0.07%) and CAC (+0.04%) are both just on the green side of break-even. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to a mixed, flat open as we wait on the premarket data releases. The DIA is implying a -0.07% open, the SPY implying a +0.05% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.12% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes the May Nonfarms Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, and May Avg. Hourly Earnings (all at 8:30 am), Apr. Factory Orders (10 am), and Fed Chair Powell speaks at 7 am. There are no major earnings reports on the day.

All eyes seem to be pointed toward the May Payroll data. The reaction to this number will undoubtedly call the tune at least early in the day. Economists are estimating a +650k report, but remember that the April number came in much lower than expected a month ago. Regardless, the long and mid-term trends remain bullish, while, for the moment markets are in a short-term pullback. Caution is clearly warranted in a market when the moves are made outside of open session hours.

Remember this is Friday, so don’t forget to pay yourself and get any hedging or position-lightening in front of the weekend done. Beyond that, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend (the one appropriate for your trade horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). However, also remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Don’t be afraid to take some time to stop trading and sharpen your axe instead. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. And a refined process and sharpened skills are the keys to consistency. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GOEV, AI, SKLZ, QD, KSS, DELL. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

A Slew of Data and the AMC Circus in Town

June 3, 2021 by Ed Carter

Without a major driver, markets ground sideways all day in the 3 major indices. This left all 3 printing an indecisive Doji-Harami candle Wednesday. On the day, SPY gained 0.17%, DIA gained 0.14%, and QQQ gained 0.20%. The VXX fell 2.5% to 34.61 and T2122 fell a bit, but still remains well into the overbought territory at 87.58. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 1.591% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.5% to $68.76/barrel. In related news, after the close, the Fed announced that it will soon begin selling the $13.7 billion in corporate debt it purchased in 2020, at some unspecified time in the future. (More details as the sale nears.) While this is a trivial amount (in Fed or Fiscal stimulus terms), this is the first sign whatsoever of Fed tapering its easing policy.

The meme stock AMC continued its wild, perhaps miraculous ride on the “social-media short squeeze” train Wednesday. The stock closed up 100% after a 16% gap-up, several trading halts, and a 105% range day. That leaves the stock up a cumulative 432% in the last 7 trading days and a cool 2,900% for the year. Overnight that wild ride continued with a 20% range, but only up 1% as of 7:30 am (in VERY volatile trading). To top this all off, AMC filed with the SEC early today to sell 11 million new shares. In a related story, it’s interesting to think that Mudrick Capitol (who had bought $230 million of AMC in a new offering on Tuesday, only to flip the stock a few hours later for a purported near $100 million profit) ended up missing out on another potential $300 million, which it could have earned by holding the stock an additional 24 hours.

News leaked near the close that XOM appears to have “lost” a third board seat (out of 13) to the activist group seeking to push the company to move away from fossil fuels and toward becoming a carbon-neutral business. Prior to Wednesday, it had been confirmed that activist group Engine No. 1 had won 2 board seats. However, now the vote counting has been completed and it shows they actually won 3 of the seats. In other corporate news, after the close, FEYE announced it is selling its security products business (and name) to a private equity firm. The remaining cyber forensics unit will continue under the name Mandiant Solutions. No word yet on how this impacts the FEYE ticker or whether Mandiant will list under a different ticker name.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,154,305 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 611,020. However, the number of new cases continues to fall and is back down to an average of 16,501 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, just more slowly, but are also now down to March 2020 levels at 405 per day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 172,478,958 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,708,029 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 466,464 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 10,408 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again, on uneven moves. The regional catalyst seems to be May Chinese PMI number coming in below April and less than expected (although still strongly expansionist at 55.1). Indonesia (+0.99%), India (+0.73%) and South Korea (+0.72%) led gainers, while Hong Kong (-1.13%) and Shenzhen (-0.65%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are red across the board so far Thursday. The FTSE (-0.98%), DAX (-0.63%), and CAC (-0.48%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures point toward a lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.56% open, the SPY implying a -0.67% gap down, and the QQQ implying a -0.95% gap down to start the day.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes May ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), May Services PMI (9:45 am), ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and 2 Fed speakers (Bostic at 12:30 pm and Quarles at 3:05 pm). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to DOOO, CIEN, SJM, and TTC. Then, after the close, AVGO, FIVE, JOAN, LULU, NGL, and SAIC report.

Fear out of the Chinese data (strong expansion, but not blowing the lid off the economic pot) has global markets spooked early this morning. With a slew of US economic data to follow before the open, it’s too early to call the opening market sentiment. However, the sideways grind of the last few days certainly appears more “toppy” than ever. Regardless, the long and mid-term trends remain bullish, while, for the moment the short-term trend is sideways. Caution is clearly warranted.

As always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend (the one appropriate for your trade horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). However, also remember that you don’t have to trade every day. Don’t be afraid to take some time to stop trading and sharpen your axe instead. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. And a refined process and sharpened skills are the keys to consistency. So, keep hitting those singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Meat Supplier is Latest Hit By Hackers

June 2, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Tuesday on optimism coming off the long weekend (or perhaps in sympathy with European markets that celebrated EU stimulus spending). However, after the gap, the rest of the day was a fading of the gap and then a sideways grind in a tight range. QQQ printed what could be seen as a bearish engulfing of a Doji while the large-caps both just printed large ugly candles. This leaves us with a potential double-top in the large caps. On the day, SPY lost 0.09%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.33%. The VXX rose 2.25% to 35.48 and T2122 shot back up well into the overbought territory at 91.84. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.61% and Oil (WTI) was up about 2.5% to $67.93/barrel (the highest level since 2018).

Brazilian-based meat processor JBSAY suffered a ransomware cyberattack over the weekend. The company accounts for 25% of US beef packing, but also has significant market share in the pork and poultry markets as well. JBSAY will close all US plants today. However, it is likely that much just like the Colonial pipeline impact on gas prices, the impact is likely to be short-term. That said, it will lead to increased profits for their competitors and general meat price inflation throughout the US food industry, for at least for the next few weeks. TSN, SYY, HRL, CAG, PPC, KR, WMT are a few of the tickers that can be affected by this situation.

After another incredibly volatile day with a 20% range, AMC ended Tuesday up almost 23% (which was very close to where it had gapped up to open). It looks to be doing it again today, up 21% at the moment but having been up 40% overnight. In other social-media-driven market news, Elon Musk tweeted support for the Korean publisher (Korean-listed Samsung Publishing) behind the “Baby Shark” video/meme. The stock soared 10% (a huge move for the stock) in Korean trading. In “crypto craze” news, Dogecoin is soaring in (+30%) since COIN (the largest crypto exchange) enabled some of its users to trade that cryptocurrency Tuesday.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,136,738 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 610,436. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 17,387 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are also falling, and are now down to 416 per day (again, the lowest number since March 2020). The NIH announced that it has begun a small trial (150 patients) of mix-and-match vaccination, where the patient was originally full-vaccinated using PFE, MDNA, or JNJ vaccine, but the receive a booster shot from a different drug company 3-4 months after the original vaccination was complete.

Globally, the numbers rose to 171,993,794 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,577,436 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 476,511 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 10,569 new deaths per day. In some great news, the UK recorded no Covid deaths on the day for the first time since the pandemic began.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time more evenly split. Shenzhen (-1.18%), Singapore (-0.82%), and Shanghai (-0.76%) paced the losses. Meanwhile, Indonesia (+1.41%), Australian (+1.05%), and Malaysia (+0.76%) led gainers. This all came on reports that the region’s economy has bounced back to pre-pandemic levels during Q1. In Europe, markets lean more to the green side, but on modest moves. The 3 major indices are basically flat with the FTSE (+0.14%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (+0.17%) basically unchanged at this point in their day. This came as the ECB said that core inflation is not high and it would be premature to tighten monetary policy. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are flat. The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implying a +0.02% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.01% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Fed Beige Book (2 pm) and 2 Fed speakers (Bostic and Brainard, both at 2 pm). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to AAP and DCI. Then, after the close, EDR, NTAP, PVH, SPTN, and SPLK report.

Markets are looking undecided so far this morning after a volatile, if flat, start to June. With no major economic news or earnings expected on the day, it is possible we see a rest day in front of a bevy of news that is scheduled for Thursday morning. Regardless, the long and mid-term trends remain bullish, while the short-term trend is sideways. Inflation fear remains the main concern for markets, but the Fed and Central Banks around the globe continue to tell us not to worry since they are not changing policy and inflation is transient and not core. At the same time, a screaming economy and blowout profits are still the stories told by the vast majority of important earnings reports.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day. It’s hard to make money trading a market that “gaps and fades” and generally grinds sideways. So, don’t be afraid to take some time to stop trading and sharpen your axe instead. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, as always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend (the one appropriate for your trade horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Keep hitting those singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence. Welcome back from the holiday…let’s go make some money.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SENS, QD, WKHS, MARA, AI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

EU Stimulus and Meme Stock Rally

June 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

Despite premarket economic data that was worse than expected (Apr PCE Prices +3.1 vs. +2.9% est.) markets still gapped higher at the open Friday. However, from there we saw a sideways grind the rest of the day, fading the gap in all 3 major indices. Only the QQQ printed a potential candle signal with what could be called a Shooting Star type of candle. On the day, SPY gained 0.21%, DIA gained 0.30%, and QQQ gained 0.32%. The VXX rose 1.5% to 34.70 and T2122 fell back out of the overbought territory to 75 even. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.581% and Oil (WTI) was just shy of flay to $66.61/barrel. All of this happened on very light volume as traders had left early for an extra-long weekend.

The meme stocks had another day of massive volatility Friday as GME had a range of more than 20% to close down almost 13% and AMC had a 52% range to close down 1.6% on the day. For the week, AMC was up over 116% and GME up over 25% on ranges of 202% and 55% respectively. For its part, AMC is taking advantage of the situation by selling more stock ($231 million) and the ride seems primed to continue as AMC is up over 12% in early premarket trading Monday.

Private equity firm KKR took tech data analytics firm CLDR private early today at a cost of $4.7 billion ($16/share). CLDR had closed at $12.86 on Friday, so holders got a 24% premium. (KKR is famous for buying companies, slicing/dicing them, recombining them with complementary companies and the IPOing the new entity.)

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 34,113,146 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 609,767. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 17,275 new cases per day (the lowest number since March 2020). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 460 per day (the lowest number since March 2020). The CDC says that nearly 51% of the population is at least partially vaccinated while 41% is now fully vaccinated. While statistically that is not enough to reach herd immunity, it is a step in that direction with signs of normalcy returning.

Globally, the numbers rose to 171,520,497 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,566,430 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 485,983 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 10,801 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned strongly to the green side Monday. Indonesia (+1.69%), Thailand (+1.57%), New Zealand (+1.15%), and Hong Kong (+1.08%) were the major movers with much more modest moves by the larger exchanges and small moves among the few red ones. In Europe, markets are green across the board as the EU is finally ready to spend the more than $917 billion in emergency stimulus it raised earlier in the pandemic. This will be new spending, on top of the stimulus already spent by the 27 EU countries. The FTSE (+1.11%), DAX (+1.49%), and QQQ (+0.84%) are typical of the region. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward the large-caps testing the all-time highs with the QQQ testing the highs of the recent range. The SPY is implying a +0.59% open, the DIA implying a +0.71% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.50% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mfg. PMI (9:45 am) and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open are limited to BNS. Then after the close, HPE and ZM report.

Markets seem to be in a good mood for a virtual Monday. Apparently, the long weekend did the traders some good. Of course, the nearly $1 trillion in new stimulus spending in the EU is helpful. So, we start June on a positive note and challenging the highs again. Even the lagging QQQs are only 2% from their all-time highs. And the outlook for the economy (profits) remains strong with the big names claiming to have pricing power, more government spending (nationally and abroad) on tap. While inflation is a very real concept, the Fed assures us not to worry about it this year. In that vein, one thing to keep in mind is that deficits and inflation are long-term economic problems for investors, not short-term market problems for traders.

Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, as always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend (the one appropriate for your trade horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Keep hitting those singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence. Welcome back from the holiday…let’s go make some money.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: Rick’s return flight was delayed and his Tuesday is starting late. So no trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Reddit Squeezing and Russian Phishing

May 28, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started with a little gap (up a quarter percent on SPY, half percent on DIA, and down a tenth of a percent on QQQ). However, that was it for the day as markets traded sideways in a tight rant the rest of the day. This left all 3 major indices as small-body, black-body candles. It should be noted that all week stocks have been trading on very low volumes, as markets look ahead to a long weekend. On the day, SPY (+0.03%) was flat, DIA (+0.36%) gained a tad, and QQQ (-0.38%) lost just a bit. The VXX fell almost 5% again to 34.16, and T2122 sneaked into the overbought territory at 82.93. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.601% and Oil (WTI) was up nine-tenths of a percent to $66.79/barrel.

MSFT said in a blog post that the same Russian hacking group (MSFT has named the group Nobelium) that carried out the SWI attack early last year have launched a new attack. The impacts of last year’s catastrophic attack are still not fully known or at least have not been made public. However, it appears that the new attack has targeted at least 150 organizations globally. MSFT said that at least 25% of the targeted groups in the latest attack are humanitarian or human-rights-related organizations. However, governments, consulting companies, and non-governmental think tanks are also among the targets, which span 24 countries so far.

The Reddit crowd continues to pump the “meme stocks” as AMC shares shot up over 36% on the day and GME gained over 11%. AMC is up 121% on the week and GME up almost 44% over the same time. The so-called “short-squeeze” plays certainly work when the squeezers can collaborate on social media. These moves seem to be continuing in pre-market trading Friday.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,999,680 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 607,726. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 23,060 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are also still falling and are now down to 526 per day (the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 169,710,788 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,527,082 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 538,292 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 11,280 new deaths per day. SNY and GSK have begun Phase 3 trials of their own joint-venture vaccine.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side on very uneven trading. Japan (+2.10%), Taiwan (+1.62%), and Australia (+1.19%) stood out among the gainers. Meanwhile, losses were mild, with New Zealand (-0.50%) and Shenzhen (-0.30%) being the most significant. In Europe, markets are nearly all green so far today. The FTSE (+0.31%), DAX (+0.60%), and CAC (+0.69%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.50% open, the SPY implying a +0.39% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.36% open…but some significant economic data lies ahead before the open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include April PCE Price Index, April Trade Balance, April Personal Spending, and April Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BIG and CAL. There are no major earnings reports after the close.

Markets are seeking to end the pre-holiday week on a positive note as the bulls look to make the first push of the day. Expect volume to dry up quickly today, but then again the entire week has happened on low volume. The PCE Price Index might have an effect if it touches the inflation nerve of Mr. Market. Beyond that, look for traders to square up their books, place their hedges, and hit the road early today.

As always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick to the trend (appropriate for your trade horizon) and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence. Don’t forget to pay yourself on Pay Day, or that this is a long weekend. And enjoy the holiday!

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

3 Big Economic Reports Today

May 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets traded in a very tight range all day Wednesday on light volume as it appeared traders decided to get an early start to the long weekend. All 3 major indices printed indecisive Doji candles at the break-even level. On the day SPY gained 0.19%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.35%. The VXX fell almost 5% to 35.91 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 69.66. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.581% and Oil (WTI) gained a fraction to $66.17/barrel.

During the day, the AMZN purchase of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion was agreed. The move puts them in better position to compete in the streaming space versus NFLX and DIS. XOM management also lost a historic proxy battle which allowed environmental activists to gain at least 2 (and possibly 3) of the 13 board seats. The activist group (Engine No. 1) has been pushing the company to move away from fossil fuel and toward a role in a zero-carbon footprint world. Big bank CEOs also took a grilling on Capitol Hill. From the left they were hammered over PPP, diversity and collections policies. From the right, they were hit over “woke capitalism” and what their stance was on budget deficits. After-hour NVDA beat on both lines on an 84% growth in revenue.

US and Chinese trade representatives held their first phone call since President Biden took office. No details have been leaked, other than both sides saying it was a candid and constructive call, with both sides agreeing to further discussions. In what may or may not be separate trade news, Bloomberg reports China has eased its “Offshore Funding Limit” for foreign banks (allowing foreign banks to own larger stakes in Chinese banks), which had been one of the measures imposed during the prior administration’s US-China Trade War. So at least the big banks got somehting out of a day they were grilled by US legislators.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,971,207 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 606,179. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 23,917 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 537 per day (the lowest number since March 2020). On Wednesday, 7 major health officials asked Congress to investigate the origin of Covid-19. President Biden also publicly tasked the US intelligence community to an investigate and report on the origin within 90 days. Finally, a study published in the JAMA said that 73% of the “moderate to severe” cases saw patients reporting symptoms at least 2 months after diagnosis.

Globally, the numbers rose to 169,143,484 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,513,941 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 555,028 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 11,487 new deaths per day. Wednesday, the EU asked JNJ to carry out most studies of their vaccine after a Belgian death. In the Australian state of Victoria, another 7-day lockdown has been issued after a new local outbreak.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side on uneven, but mostly modest moves. Malaysia (+1.02%) and Thailand (+0.92%) led the gains, with New Zealand (-0.84%) pacing the losses as the largest exchanges saw smaller moves. In Europe, markets are mostly modestly green so far today, but the largest exchanges lag. The FTSE (-0.22%), DAX (-0.20%), and CAC (+0.59%) are not taking their typical leadership roles in the move, with several continental exchanges more green and more red than the big boys. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly lower open (albeit an hour before major economic news). The DIA is implying a flat +0.02% open, the SPY implying a slightly down -0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.37% fall at the open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes April Durable Goods Orders, Q1 GDP, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), and April Pending home Sales (10 am). The big bank CEOs will also be in for their second day of testimony (public berating?) on Capitol Hill. Major earnings reports before the open include BBY, BURL, CM, DG, DLTR, MDT, RY, SAFM, and TD. Then after the close, ADSK, COST, DELL, GPS, GES, HPQ, YY, CRM, ULTA, and VMW report.

Those 3 major reports coming at 8:30 am are likely to call the tune in early trading. However, the volume has been light enough the last few days that it is possible traders are just taking the week off in order to stretch the long weekend ahead. So, beware of volatility and moves on very light volume. Either way, be wary of a resting or indecisive market we’ve seen the last few days possibly indicating resistance.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VIAC, FSLY, RKT, NKLA, LAC, FUBO, WKHS, GOGO, BFLY, SOLO, TLRY, SKLZ, RUN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Speakers Keep Reassuring Markets

May 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up modestly on Tuesday and the immediately began fading the gap. After the first hour, all three major indices were back down to at least flat and then proceeded to grind sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. This left us with something close to a Dark Cloud Cover candle in the SPY and a Bearish Engulfing in the DIA. On the day, SPY lost 0.20%, DIA lost 0.22%, and QQQ gained 0.15%. The VXX was flat at 37.70 and T2122 fell to 65.43. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.557% and Oil (WTI) was just South of flat at $65.87/barrel.

After the close San Francisco Fed Pres. Daly told CNBC “the economy is strong, but it’s way too early to tighten policy.” She also described her stance on inflation as “firmly in the transitory camp” (referring to her previously stated position that inflation is not snowballing and will subside on its own starting early in 2022). In an unrelated story, Corn futures fell 6% on the day (a massive move in futures) as markets fear of a larger than expected supply hit commodity speculators hard. This move was based more-or-less solely on a USDA report saying that 90% of intended corn acres have been planted as of Sunday. (While ahead of last year at this time, this is just in-line with a normal planting year.)

The Attorney General of the District of Columbia sued AMZN Tuesday on the basis of anti-trust activity. The suit alleges AMZN maintained a monopoly through pricing contracts (a “price parity clause” in their contracts with third-party sellers) that prevent price competition. The cluses prohibit third-party sellers from selling their products cheaper in any other venue than the AMZN Marketplace, and lets the company penalize any vendors that violate that clause. DC claims this amounts to making AMZN Marketplace a virutal monopoly and reduces price competition that hurts consumers. AMZN responded by saying “the DC Atty. Gen. has the situation exactly backwards” sicne their marketplace helps third-party sellers exists and therefore generally guarantees price competition overall.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,947,189 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 605,208. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 24,668 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 550 per day (the lowest number since March 2020).

Globally, the numbers rose to 168,572,477 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,501,270 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 569,439 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 11,609 new deaths per day. India surpassed 27 million total cases, but the daily new case count was below 200,000 for the first time in over a month. Meanwhile, Malaysia now has more covid cases per million people than India (about 33% more) as of Sunday. While Malaysia is a small country, it borders much larger countries and trade routes.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green on modest moves. Thailand (+1.08%) and Hong Kong (+0.88%) led the gains while Shenzhen (-0.35%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are lean to the red side so far today. The FTSE (-0.29%) and DAX (-0.18%) are down modesty while the CAC (+0.03%) is flat. The rest of the continent is split on modest moves. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open in the markets. The DIA is implying a +0.27% open, the SPY implying +0.35% open, and the QQQ implying +0.42% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and a Fed speaker who presdents at two events (Quarles at 10 am and 3 pm). Other new includes the CEOs of the major banks (JPM, C, MS, BAC, WFC, and GS) begin two days of grilling in front of Congress today. Major earnings reports before the open include ANF, CPRI, DKS, LI, and PDD. Then after the close, UHAL, AEO, CHNG, DBI, DXC, MOD, NVDA, WSM, and WDAY report.

Bitcoin has climbed back above $40,000 this morning, 33% above the lows of last week, but still 38% below the April highs. At the same time, Gold rose overnight to over a 4-month high (back above $1,900/oz.). With limited news planned and bond yields in check, perhaps the Fed statements have alleviated the inflation fears for the moment. Whether that is true or not, it appears the bulls will make the opening push at the bell again this morning. However, remember that we still have resistance overhead and the bulls are showing to be tentative after a few strong days.

Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). As always, keep locking in profits as soon as you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Markets Look to Open Higher Tuesday

May 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls took charge from the start on Monday as markets gapped higher at the open and followed-through for the first hour. However, that was the end of the movement for the day as stocks ground sideways in a tight range the remainder of the day, but ended on a slight pullback in the range. This left us with gap-up candles in all 3 major indices, with the DIA failing to break out of the highs of the last couple weeks. On the day, SPY gained 1.02%, DIA gained 0.56%, and QQQ gained 1.68%. The VXX fell over 4% to 37.73 and T2122 inched closer to the overbought territory at 76.81. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.603% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.81% to $66/barrel.

Big tech led the way Monday as AMAT, TSLA, and NVDA each gained over four percent. However, the FATMAG stocks all did well with FB and GOOG both gaining over 2.6%, AMZN and AAPL both gaining over 1.3%, and MSFT gained 2.29% on the day. For its part, Bitcoin had another volatile day after dropping below $32,000 on Sunday night, it rebounded 20% Monday after Elon Must tweeted that he had been talking to Bitcoin miners and that they committed to coming up with planned renewable energy plans which he found potentially promising. Also aiding the surge was a JPM bullish call for the stock of the main crypto exchange COIN.

In business news, CNBC reported late Monday that AMZN is very near a deal to buy MGM for between $8 and $9 billion. The deal would add to the AMZN Video content catalog and increase the company’s ability to compete against NFLX, DIS, and the newly merged WarnerMedia and DISCA. Elsewhere, after hours, Bloomberg reported that SQ will soon offer checking and savings accounts in addition to its current merchant (card processing) services. This will add another competitor to the bank space now dominated by JPM, BAC, WFC, C, and USB.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,922,937 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 604,416. Still, the number of new cases is falling again and is back down to an average of 25,189 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still falling more slowly, but are now down to 543 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The TSA reported on Monday that air travel was nearly back to 2019 number last weekend with 1.8 million people flying versus a 2019 number of 2.1 million for the same weekend. PFE announced that the first shots of its proposed booster (which combines the covid vaccine with a streptococcus vaccine) were administered as its trial of 6-month post “full vaccination” has begun.

Globally, the numbers rose to 168,032,095 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,488,576 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly, but remain at 581,560 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling but remains at 11,864 new deaths per day. The Summer Olympics took another hit on Monday as the US added Japan to its “Do not travel” travel advisory list. Meanwhile, Taiwan (the world’s largest exporter of microchips, including TSM) has extended it’s national lockdown by at least 3 more weeks. Since these measures prohibit any gatherings of more than 5 people and require masking at all times, it is reportedly impacting business operations.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost exclusively in the green. New Zealand (-0.87%) was the lone red, with Shanghai (+2.40%), Shenzhen (+2.34%), Hong Kong (+1.75%), and Taiwan (+1.58%) leading the bullish surge. In Europe, markets are slightly more mixed, but remain mostly in the green so far today. The 3 major exchanges FTSE (-0.08%), DAX (+0.74%), and CAC (+0.09%) set the tone as usual, with smaller exchanges tending to slightly larger moves. As f 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.26% open, the SPY implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.43% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, April New Home Sales, and a Fed speaker (Quarles) (all at 10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include AZO, CBRL, DY, ESLT, and VSAT. Then after the close, A, INTU, JWN, TOL, and URBN report.

CNBC reports that part of the cryptocurrency’s extreme volatility of late has been caused by large traders using 100-to-1 leverage. This has caused 20% to 30% swings in a day. However, so far this morning, the price of Bitcoin has stabilized. In stocks, the bulls seem to have the premarket momentum again today. However, with no new revelations driving the move, it remains a case of reopening expansion enthusiasm versus fear that overheating will cause the Fed to pump the breaks. As we approach the all-time highs again, there is still resistance overhead. Still, the short-term and long-term trends remain bullish although we seem to be later in the cycle.

Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). As always, keep locking in profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

US Wages Rise and China Taps Commodity Break

May 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher at the open on Friday, but then traded slowly lower all day, closing near the lows in the SPY and QQQ. The DIA closed as an indecisive Doji candle. On the day, SPY was flat (-0.08%), DIA was just positive (+0.15%), and QQQ was down 0.55%. The VXX fell to 39.48 and T2122 rose up to just outside the overbought territory at 77.19. 10-year bond yields were down slightly to 1.623% and Oil (WTI) shot up 3.13% to $63.88/barrel. Bitcoin ended a tumultuous week on a major down leg, losing 10.26% on the day as China’s State Council concluded they should crack down on bitcoin mining.

After the close Friday, FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed Pres. Daly told Bloomberg that she expects the temporary factors that are leading to inflation “will persist the rest of this year, but will start to roll off at the beginning of next year.” She went on to say that Fed policy is in a good place right now and that policy makers need to be patient and not start tightening too soon. However, on Sunday Bloomberg also reported that the Chinese government is now decreasing infrastructure spending in a bid to reduce the commodity price bubble caused, in-part, by their massive expansion over the last 6-7 months. The report said this did not spell disaster for commodity bulls, since the US expansion is taking up slack with its larger stimulus plans. However, they did say that industrial metals cycles tend to coincide with China’s credit cycle. Which could mean good news in months to come for business input costs (reduced inflation)..

On Saturday, CNBC reported that for the first time in 25 years the ratio of worker pay to corporate profits has started to budge. In other words, the massive layoffs from the global pandemic have caused a situation where companies need to compete for labor in a way not seen since the 1990s. As a result, worker pay grew 3% in the first quarter. However, according to analytics from MCO, the ratio of compensation to profits still remains at the level of the late 1960s. That said, MCD, UA, BAC, and CMG are among the companies saying they will raise wages on average (sometime over the next several years). MCO says this will not impact corporate profitability in the short-term, but if the trend continues it could have an effect in 2023 or 2024.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,896,660 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 604,087. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 25,083 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 553 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC announced that 25 states have now vaccinated at least half of their adult population. This comes as 61% of the adult population has received at least one shot and almost 50% of adults are fully vaccinated.

Globally, the numbers rose to 167,589,687 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,479,788 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 592,614 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,088 new deaths per day. The Japanese government is decrying a slow uptake in vaccination, even in the main cities planned to host the summer Olympics. Less than 2% of the population is vaccinated and even Tokyo is seeing less than a third of the number of daily vaccinations the government has deemed necessary.

Asian markets were mixed overnight on modest moves, but leaned slightly to the green side. Shenzhen (+0.62%) led to the upside and South Korea (-0.38%) led to the down side. In Europe we see a similar story taking shape as of mid-day. All 3 of the large exchanges are in the green so far, but most of the smaller exchanges are on the red side. The FTSE (+0.18%), DAX (+0.44%), and CAC (+0.02%) are all slightly green at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US Futures are all in the green. The DIA is implying a +0.28% open, the SPY implying a +0.43% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.62% open. Oil is higher in premarket by 1.40%.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to two Fed speakers (Brainard at 9 am and Bostic at noon). There are no major earnings reports before the open. However, after the close NDSN reports.

Markets look to be opening inside the range of the last few days. The bulls seem to have the premarket momentum, but there are no new revelations driving the move. It remains a case of reopening expansion enthusiasm versus fear that overheating will cause the Fed to pump the breaks. With a very strong quarter of earnings just behind us and high expectations for strong profits in the current quarter, the bulls have the general momentum. However, there is resistance overhead and we are coming off one hell of a bull run. So, this is a “climbing the wall of worry” situation…meaning we seem to be later in the cycle.

As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: KHC, INSG, MARA, INTC, XHB, INO, SPCE, F, SRPT, DDD, RIOT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

CNA Paid $40mil, Yellen Proposes 15 Pct

May 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up on better than expected (lower) new Jobless Claims and then the bulls followed-through with the exception of a brief break at noon and another the last half-hour of the day. This left us with a second strong bullish candle in a row and broke the string of losses, but the market is also coming into one of the areas of resistance caused by the action the last two weeks. On the day, SPY gained 1.04%, DIA gained 0.57%, and QQQ gained 1.93%. The VXX lost 5.5% to 40.03 and T2122 rose at bit to 63.56. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.632% and Oil (WTI) fell over 2% to $62.05/barrel.

At the end of the trading day Treas. Sec. Yellen announced that the US has proposed a global minimum corporate tax of 15% to the OECD (Org. for Economic Cooperation and Development). Treasury officials later told the press that the OECD meeting had featured “earnest talks” toward a global minimum tax. The idea is to prevent companies for shifting earnings to hide from taxes as the many major companies do now. Earlier in the day, the Treasury Dept. had announced a stricter crackdown on cryptocurrency usage and said it would require reporting of all transfers worth $10,000 or more. Also separately, the Fed announced it would take the next step in developing its own digital currency this summer (in a move seen as catch-up to the Chinese who have been testing a Chinese Cryptocurrency for over a year).

In the wake of the Colonial Pipeline mess, after the Close Thursday, it was reported that one of the largest insurance companies in the US has paid hackers $40 million in ransom. In a story broke by Bloomberg, it was revealed that CNA paid the massive ransom to regain control of their computer network in late March. Bloomberg said the company would not confirm the ransom paid, but did confirm the hack and said it was a different hacker group (at least in name) than the one that shutdown Colonial. Welcome to the new age.

Related to the virus, new US infections continue to fall. The totals rose to 33,833,181 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 602,616. However, the number of new cases is falling again and are back down to an average of 28,735 new cases per day (the lowest number since June). Deaths are still plateauing or falling more slowly, but are now down to 573 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). The CDC reported that vaccinations rates have fallen over 46% from their peak, but at the same time 38% of American adults are fully vaccinated. However, Dr. Fauci (NIH) reiterated Thursday that we will need booster shots, but that we don’t know yet how soon and suggesting the amount of time between vaccination and booster may actually vary by vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 165,912,336 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,446,477 deaths. The trends are better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase now that India has passed its peaked. The world’s average new cases are falling quickly now, but remain at 623,846 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also falling, but remains at 12,296 new deaths per day. JNJ announced Thursday that its vaccine has joined PFE, MRNA AZN, and 3 others in a study being conducted by the UK. That study is looking to identify the best seasonal booster shots as follow-on to initial vaccination. The EU also reached a deal on when and how to give Covid-19 Vaccine Passports, which is expected to enable an increase in travel across Europe. While India has now passed 26 million cases, a new focus is on a deadly, post-covid infection called “black fungus” that attacks people with weakened immune systems in that region and that their government is just now starting to track.

Asian markets were mixed overnight, but leaned to the green side. India (+1.81%), Taiwan (+1.62%), and Japan (+0.78%) led the gainers while Malaysia (-0.83%) and Shenzhen (-0.81%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets lean even more heavily to the green side, but on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (+0.20%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical with outliers like Greece (-4.03%), Denmark (+1.24%), and Norway (+1.41%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.34% open, the SPY implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.28% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and April Existing Housing Sales (10 am). Major earnings reports before the open include BAH, DE, FL, and VFC. Then after the close there are no major reports.

The bulls are looking to follow up on the strong run they have made since the open Wednesday (which to be fair was at a nasty gap-down level). However, we are just now clawing back to the level we were at a week ago and there remains resistance overhead. While yesterday’s news of the Biden administration wanting to clamp down on tax cheats and proposing a global minimum corporate tax don’t seem to be major market threats, the fear of losing an “easy Fed” remains a cloud that is hanging over the bulls head. So, in that sense, our fight back to the all-time highs remains “climbing the wall of worry.”

Don’t forget it’s Friday. So, consider what you need to do to protect against weekend headline risk. You don’t want to get caught like those longs who ran into the Colonial pipeline news 2 weekends ago. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain discipline by following your trading rules. Stick with the trend and respect support and resistance levels (but don’t just assume they will hold). Consistency is the key to long-term trading success. So, keep hitting singles and doubles rather than swinging for the fence.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: LAZR, IQ, IRM, XL, NOK, INO, CSCO, INSG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching