The Bulls said “not so fast” to the Bears Friday.  The SPY gapped up 0.46%, DIA gapped up 0.49%, and QQQ gapped up 0.45%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs followed through for 30 minutes, retraced for another 30 minutes, and then the Bulls were in charge the rest of the day.  All three major index ETFs closed very close to their highs for the day.  This action gave us large gap-up, white-bodied candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ, breaking out of the recent range with strength.  This took place on slightly lower-than-average volume in all three.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+2.30%) way out front (by more than 1%) leading the way higher while Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) lagged behind the other sectors. At the same time, the SPY gained 1.56%, DIA gained 1.16%, and QQQ gained 2.25%.  The VXX plummeted 4.04% to close at 19.93 and T2122 shot back up but remained in the center of the mid-range at 57.80. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.622% and Oil (WTI) jumped up 1.98% to close at $77.25 per barrel. So, Friday was the Bulls’ Day from start to finish.  This gave us the second straight week of gains in quite a while.

The major economic news reported Friday included Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which came in lower than expected at 60.4 (compared to a forecast of 63.7 and a previous reading of 63.8).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations also came in below what was anticipated at 56.9 (versus the 59.5 forecast and a prior value of 59.3).  However, Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectations were higher than predicted at 4.4% (compared to a forecast of 4.0% and a previous reading of 4.2%).  Finally, the Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectation also came in hot at 3.2% (versus a forecast of 3.0% and a prior value of 3.0%).

In Fed speak news, San Francisco Fed President Daly said Friday that it is still too early to say whether the Fed has done enough hiking.  Daly told CNBC, “(Fed policy) is in a very good place” and “the news on inflation has been fairly good.”  She continued, “all of that said, it is far too early to declare victory.”

In stock news, the US Air Force’s B-21 “Raider” bomber built by NOC took its first flight Friday.  The $750 million per flying wing plane achieved its first unscripted step toward production.  (The USAF plans to buy 100 of the jets.)   Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the US cattle herd is at the lowest level in decades, following years of drought that had burnt off pasture land.  This is causing the need for the US to import a record amount of beef.  The article claimed this shift is causing significant margin pressure on companies like TSN. Later, WYNN reached a tentative deal with the hospitality workers union just hours ahead of the union’s scheduled strike.  (CZR and MGM reached deals with the same union earlier in the week.)  The deal covers 5,000 WYNN employees at Las Vegas properties. At the same time, Reuters reported that Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO is still debating whether it will enter the North American market in 2025.  The company is a leading force in the Chinese EV market, but building cars in China for import into the US amid trade tensions has given the company pause.  HMC raised worker pay by 11% after the UAW deal with the “Big 3” automakers.  Despite this, the UAW has targeted HMC, TM, and TSLA workforces as targets for union organizing.  Meanwhile, MULN announced it has secured a former KHC food manufacturing plant and warehouse for the production of its electric vehicles.  Later, a GM assembly plant in Flint MI, narrowly voted AGAINST ratifying the tentative deal between the UAW and GM.  (51.8% of workers at that plant voted against the deal.)

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, PXMD announced that it had given the FDA new study data indicating their drug had made significant progress against African Sleeping Sickness.  Later, Reuters reported that three sources tell them that EU countries and the EU Parliament are set to agree on “light touch” rules for ABNB next week.  This less aggressive approach to regulation is a stark contrast to the EU approach to other tech firms.  Elsewhere, BKNG has agreed to pay $100.25 million to settle a tax dispute with Italy.  Later, Reuters reported that LUV now expects FAA certification of BA’s 737 MAX 7 plane by April 2024, which will allow the airline to start flying the planes in October or November of that year.

After the close, STNE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. So far this morning, FTRE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, TSN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, HSIC missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that FTRE raised its forward guidance while TSN lowered its guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Hong Kong (+1.30%) and Taiwan (+0.94%) were far out front leading the gainers while Singapore (-0.91%) was by far the biggest of the more plentiful losers.  However, in Europe, with the single exception of Athens (-0.07%), we find green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.36%), DAX (+0.25%), and FTSE (+0.63%) lead that region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.632% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $77.27 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to the Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include FTRE, HSIC, and TSN.  Then, after the close, ACM, LU, and SLF report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, Oct. Core CPI, Oct. CPI, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  Then Wednesday we get, Oct. Core PPI, Oct. PPI, Oct. Retail Sales, Sept. Business Inventories, Sept. Retail Inventories, and Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  On Thursday, Oct. Export Priced Index, Oct. Import Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Oct. Industrial Production, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ARMK, AZUL, CAE, CSIQ, ENR, HD, IHS, SBH, SE, TME, VIPS, and NU.  Then Wednesday, AAP, CTLT, FI, GFF, JD, TGT, TCEHY, TJX, XPEV, ZIM, SQM, CPA, MMS, PANW, and TTEK report.  On Thursday, we hear from BABA, ARCO, BBWI, BERY, BV, DDL, DOLE, M, NICE, WMT, WSM, QFIN, AMAT, BZH, CPRT, GPS, GLOB, HI, MATW, POST, ROST, UGI, WWD, and ATO. Finally, on Friday we hear from ATKR, BJ, and SPB.

In Chinese economic news, that country’s “Singles Day” holiday (invented by BABA) ended at midnight Saturday night.  BABA reported that it made year-over-year growth in sales for the event. Meanwhile, rival platform JD reported record sales volume for that holiday.  Reuters reports that industry analysts found sales increased by 2.08% compared to 2022 up to $156.40 billion.  (For reference, event sales grew 2.9% between 2021 and 2022.)  In other China economic news, Reuters reported Sunday that the most recent data (through September) showed a 38.2% year-on-year increase in loans given to the country’s manufacturing sector.  This compares to a slight -0.2% decrease in loans to the Chinese property sector.  While the slight decline in loans to Real Estate developers might track (given the widely-known troubled nature of that sector), the nearly 40% increase in loans to manufacturing was very surprising. Analysts seem to think this is a strategic top-down decision made by Beijing (building the country’s high-tech manufacturing capacity instead of driving domestic consumption).  For example, forecasts say China will soon be able to meet the entire world’s demand for lithium-ion batteries by itself.  However, this is all complicated by the fact that the demand of the rest of the world cannot absorb this added capacity.  As a result, this Chinese investment choice is (to the extent tariffs and trade agreements allow) likely to be disinflationary for the entire world…at least among high-end manufactured goods.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, MCO changed its outlook on the US credit rating to “negative” from “stable” while maintaining its credit rating at “Aaa.”  The agency cited deficits, rising interest rates (cost to service debt), a lack of measures to reduce spending or increase revenues, and political brinksmanship as contributing factors to their change in outlook.  (The current budget continuing resolution expires on Friday.)  In a related story, on Saturday, Speaker of the House Johnson unveiled the House GOP plan for a partial CR aimed at making the MAGA extremists happy.  The approach calls for splitting the budget for political purposes.  Johnson’s idea kicks the can on some portions of the budget until Jan. 19, while the rest is kicked down the road until Feb 2.  Paired with this is a “poison pill” that calls for dramatic cuts if either of the deadlines are missed, which is what MAGA extremist wanted in the first place.  (The idea behind this is that it puts the pressure on non-extremist portions of the House, Senate, and the President to agree to MAGA budget demands by the deadlines or the default is that MAGA gets the cuts it wants.)  Obviously, that idea is dead on arrival in the Senate and at the Whitehouse. Then on Sunday, some of the MAGA types decided even that was not enough, telling the political shows they would vote against this plan because it does not give them the up-front budget cuts they want.  For what it is worth, neither the House nor Senate versions of a CR will request funding for Israel, Ukraine, or for increased border protection funding.  So, all sides seem to have agreed those issues will be considered as extraordinary funding and not part of the budget. (Although, I am not sure how you can explain expansions on border patrol manpower and facilities as a one-off rather than a part of normal government operations.) 

With that background, it looks like all three major index ETFs are now looking to open inside the top of Friday’s large white candle. So far, all three are giving us small, white-bodied, indecisive candles (more wick than body) inside of those big Friday candles. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas (although it is also worth noting that DIA printed a “death cross” of the 50sma and 200sma Friday). So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend and the bullish breakout of consolidation is still in play. However, keep in mind that all three also remain 3%-4% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. However, those downtrend lines will be tested soon in the large-cap indices and has already been broken in the QQQ. In terms of extension, QQQ is the only major index ETF stretched above its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range. So, there is some room to run in either direction.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets opened higher with SPY gapping up 0.26%, DIA gapped up 0.26%, and QQQ gapped up 0.20%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs wove their way sideways until 11:55 a.m.  From there, all three headed South with a hard move lower at 1 p.m. (when a poor 30-year bond auction was apparently caused by a hack of a major Chinese bank, which is normally a big bond buyer).  DIA hit its lows at 2:45 p.m. followed by the SPY and QQQ at 3 p.m.  All three then traded in a tight range the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-bodied candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ both printed what could be seen as Evening Star signals while the DIA just gave us a large black candle.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and QQQ while that SPY gave us less-than-average volume.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Healthcare (-2.26%) out in front leading the way lower while Energy (+0.07%) held up better than the other sectors, barely holding onto green territory.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.78%, DIA lost 0.59%, and QQQ lost 0.77%.  The VXX gained 3.85% to close at 20.77 and T2122 fell again but remained at the low end of the mid-range at 26.04. 10-year bond yields rose to 4.634% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to close at $75.54 per barrel. So, Thursday broke the streak of higher closes in the SPY and QQQ, as well as giving us the second straight lower close in the DIA.  

The only major economic news reported Thursday was Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in slightly higher than expected at 217k (compared to a forecast of 215k but still slightly down from the prior week’s 220k).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet again came in down just a bit from the previous week at $7.861 trillion (down from $7.867 trillion the prior week).

In Fed speak news, Richmond Fed President Barkin (hawk) and Atlanta Fed President Bostic (dove) both spoke at a New Orleans event.  Both seemed to indicate that the economy has not yet fully absorbed the impacts of the previous FOMC rate hikes.  In his remarks, Bostic again said he believed the Fed policy is already restrictive enough to curb inflation and warned that there could be some “economic instability” ahead as the economy fully feels the previous Fed hikes.  For his part, Barkin predicted a coming economic downturn and said his forecast had not expected the strong Q3 growth.  He argued that an economic slowdown is necessary to stop price-setters from continuing to raise prices.  Later, Fed Chair Powell told an IMF conference in Washington that he and his Fed colleagues are encouraged by the slowing pace of inflation but are still not sure they have done enough to keep that slowing momentum going. He said, (the Fed is committed to a 2% rate of inflation target), but… “we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance.”  Powell went on to say inflation remains “well above” where they would like to see it but also described the Fed policy as “significantly restrictive.”  Above all, Chairman Powell tried to warn investors not to expect rate cuts in 2024 (as many still predict).  Finally, he said, “We will continue to move carefully, however, allowing us to address both the risk of being misled by a few good months of data, and the risk of overtightening.”

In stock news, UNH announced Thursday that it is transitioning eight insulin products to tier 1 status (least expensive).  Those products are made by LLY, NVO, and SNY.  At the same time, TDG announced it is buying a components and subsystem business from private company CPI for $1.39 billion.  Later MGM announced it has reached a tentative deal with the hospitality workers union, less than 24 hours ahead of a strike by 25,470 Las Vegas employees.   (CZR reached a deal earlier and WYNN has not yet reached an agreement.)  Elsewhere in the entertainment industry, the Screen Actors Guild reached a deal with studios such as DIS, PARA, NFLX, WBD, FOX, and AMZN ending the 118-day strike. Later, software company BILL issued a statement seeking to quash the rumors that it is in negotiations to be acquired.  At the same time, FSR revealed is negotiating with five different carmakers in the hope of attaining additional production capacity in the hope of launching two additional models by 2025.  Later, Reuters reported that NVDA plans to release three new chips aimed at the Chinese markets.  Less than a month after US officials tightened rules on export to China, NVDA has reworked the product designs of their AI chips to skirt the restrictions.  At the same time, XOM said it has acquired a floating production and storage facility from SBFFY for $1.26 billion.  Later, UAL announced it is revamping its loyalty program tied to CCF credit cards with changes taking effect on January 1.  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that GS is working on a dozen different projects to incorporate AI into its business practices.  After the close, TKO announced that major shareholder McMahon plans to sell 8.4 million shares in a secondary offering for $713.16 million.  Also after the close, BKNG announced it would begin booking cruises.  In addition, NFLX and WBD announced they are partnering with VZ to offer a $10/month streaming combination (versus the old price of $17/mo.).

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, early Thursday, the NHTSA said that TSLA is recalling 159 Model S and Model X cars.  At the same time, AAPL suffered a setback related to its $14 billion tax bill in the EU.  An advisor to the EU’s top court said that a lower court had made legal errors when ruling in favor of AAPL and the top court should review the case on whether AAPL owes Ireland $14 billion.  Later, the Bulgarian Parliament approved a $1.5 billion purchase of Stryker fighting vehicles from GD.  At the same time, a US bankruptcy court ruled that Scandinavian airline SAS could receive a $450 million loan from private firm Castlelake.  The funds will be vital to repaying APO, which is the debtor-in-possession of the airline.  After the close, AAPL agreed to pay $25 million to the Dept. of Justice to settle claims that the company has illegally favored lower-wage immigrant workers over US and green-card-holding people.  Of this, $6.75 million are penalties and the $18.25 million will go to an unspecified number of discrimination victims.  After the close, a US judge approved the $290 million JPM settlement with victims of disgraced and deceased financier Epstein.

After the close, DTEGY, HOLX, LNW, LGF.A, NWSA, RBA, STN, TTD, and WYNN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CANO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, FLO, ILMN, MTD, VYX, and NGL all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, CPRI, TPC, and U missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ILMN lowered its forward guidance.  

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only India (+0.15%) held on to green territory while Hong Kong (-1.76%) Thailand (-1.10%), and Singapore (-0.91%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we do see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.11%), DAX (-0.78%), and FTSE (-1.28%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.16% open, the SPY is implying a +0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down slightly to 4.606% while Oil (WTI) is up 1.33% to $76.74 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday are limited to Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  However, there were some last-minute Fed speaking engagements including Logan, Bostic, and Daly. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AQN.  Then, after the close, STNE reports. 

So far this morning, TOELY and DWAHY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, AQN missed on revenue while reporting in line with expectations on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, a hacking and ransomware attack on Chinese ICBC bank stopped it and others from participating in the US 30-year bond auction.  In turn, the lack of Chinese buyers caused soft demand and spooked US markets Thursday afternoon.  Back in the US, the Fed’s semiannual supervision report said that it was keeping a close tab on banks (related to rising interest rates and commercial real estate losses).  Despite some concerns, the report said the overall banking system remains sound and most lenders remain well-capitalized.  Unrelated to this, the Bank of England said Friday that the UK’s 50 largest banks will be subjected to a stress test that imagines a scenario worse than 2022’s shock to the gilt market.

With that background, it looks like all three major index ETFs are now looking to open up a bit from the Thursday close. All three are giving us white-bodied, indecisive candles (more wick than body) inside of Thursday’s black candle. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas (although the SPY and DIA are close to retesting those averages). So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend, even after pulling back from the recent impressive Bull run. However, keep in mind that all three also remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is in its mid-range (the bottom of that range). So, there is some room to run in either direction. Bear in mind that this is Friday. So, pay yourself by taking some profits and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle. This might include, lightening up, buying insurance (puts/calls) on individual positions, or hedging your overall account.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was another indecisive day in the Market.  SPY gapped up 0.14%, DIA gapped up 0.15%, and QQQ gapped up 0.11%.  From that point, all three major index ETFs put in a gradual morning selloff, reaching the low of the day at noon, followed by a gradual afternoon rally.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ both printed Doji candles while the DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema) as well as their 50sma.  This came on well below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.44%) again out front leading the way lower while Technology (+0.28%) was again trying to pull the rest of the market higher by holding up best.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.07%, DIA lost 0.12%, and QQQ gained 0.06%.  The VXX fell another 1.9% to close at 20.00 and T2122 fell again but remained in the middle of its mid-range at 41.67.  10-year bond yields fell again to 4.492% and Oil (WTI) plummeted another 2.25% to close at $75.63 per barrel.  So, Wednesday gave us a ninth-straight day of gains in the QQQ, eighth-straight in the SPY, and the first lower close in nine days in the DIA.  However, again this was another low-volume and indecisive day as the rally seems to be losing steam (particularly in the large-cap index ETFs).

The only major economic news reported Wednesday was a change in forecast by the EIA.  The agency now forecasts a 300k barrel-per-day decrease in total petroleum consumption in the US by year-end.  Previously, the EIA had forecast a 100k barrel-per-day increase in petrol consumption by the US by year-end.

In Fed speak news, FOMC Chair Powell spoke at a Fed Research and Statistics Div. 100-year anniversary celebration Wednesday.  In his remarks, Powell emphasized the need for economic forecasting and models to be agile given unpredictable global events.  Reuters also reported that NY Fed President Williams spoke at the same celebration as Powell.  Williams lauded recent research and statistics improvements by the Fed, which he said three decades ago was all about the “here and now” (tactical view), but after a large transformation now allows the FOMC to make longer-term and more strategic decisions.  Later Reuters reported that the Cleveland Fed has officially begun the search for a successor to current branch President Mester who retires next June.  (Mester has held the Cleveland Fed Presidency since 2014.)   After the close, Fed Vice-Chair Jefferson indicated to a gathering that he favors erring on the side of doing too much (on inflation) versus not doing enough.  In prepared remarks, Jefferson said, “If (inflation) expectations were to begin to drift, the reality or expectation of a weak monetary policy response would exacerbate the problem.”

In stock news, the CEO of STLA said Wednesday that the next new model from Chrysler will be an electric crossover vehicle.  Elsewhere, FTS announced Wednesday that it has completed a $500 million private placement of senior unsecured notes.  Later, CZR announced it had reached a tentative 5-year deal with the Culinary Worker Union, averting a potential strike by 10,000 employees at its nine Las Vegas locations.  However, potential strikes are still pending against MGM and WYNN properties in Las Vegas.  Later, SPR announced plans to raise $200 million by issuing more class A common stock.  At the same time, AMZN announced it has begun cutting jobs in its Music division.  However, AMZN would not confirm the number of layoffs.  Later, NVO announced it would discontinue its long-lasting insulin Levemir.  The discontinuation will be phased, beginning in January and lasting through 2024.  The company cites other alternative insulins available and manufacturing constraints as the reason.  (NVO also offers other basal insulin drugs such as Tresiba.)  At the same time, LMND announced it has reached the two million customer milestone (after achieving 1 million in late 2020).  Later, META announced it would require advertisers to disclose when AI is used to create or alter political, social, or election-related ads on Facebook and Instagram. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, Reuters reported Wednesday that C has agreed to pay $25.9 million to settle charges from the CFPB related to allegations of discrimination against Armenian-Americans on credit card applications based solely on the applicant’s last name.  Later, the NHTSA announced that GM is recalling nearly 1,000 Cruise driverless robotaxis after one of the vehicles dragged a pedestrian during an accident in October.  At the same time, TGT asked an FL judge to dismiss a shareholder lawsuit that alleged the company had ignored potential risks of offering LGBTQ merchandise during Pride Month.  The company claims the allegations are completely without merit and have nothing to do with the stock, but are instead just the expression of the plaintiff’s disagreement with the company decision.  (The plaintiff is a front for a nonprofit run by long-time anti-progressive activist and former advisor to the ex-President, Stephen Miller.)  Later, KO announced Wednesday it is withdrawing two soft drinks in Croatia in response to Croatian state inspection authorities’ orders after batches of the products were suspected of causing illnesses.  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that GOOGL will be asked to explain measures taken to protect children in line with EU rules.  (This is related to YouTube and the report says TikTok faces the same inquiries.)  Later, LLY received both US and UK approval for its Zepbound weight-loss drug.  The drug will compete with wildly successful Wegovy from NVO.  (Analysts expect that niche to be a $100 billion annual market by the end of the decade.)

After the close, ALTG, AMC, APP, CENX, DIT, GNW, HUBS, JXN, KGC, MFC, MGM, SPNT, TTEC, TWLO, VSAT, and DIS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATO, BGS, CTVA, ENS, G, MATV, SU, and MODG all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AE, AFRM, JAZZ, TTWO, and LYFT all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ASH, FLT, HP, and UHAL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ALTG, APP, HUBS, LYFT, and TWLO raised their forward guidance.  However, MODG and TTEC both lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again with Japan (+1.49%) by far (by more than 1%) the biggest mover.  On the downside, Thailand (-0.48%) paced the losses followed by Malaysia (-0.37%).  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses lean heavily to the green side with only three of 15 exchanges in red at midday.  The CAC (+0.76%), DAX (+0.44%), and FTSE (+0.45%) lead that region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have rebounded to 4.543% and Oil is up 0.45% to $75.67 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 a.m.), WASDE Ag Report (noon), and Fed Chair Powell speaks again at 2 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, and YPF.  Then, after the close, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

Ping An Insurance Group to take over China’s largest private property developer Country Garden.  The Chinese State Council instructed provincial governments to arrange the rescue of Country Garden by Ping An.  However, Reuters also reported that Ping An spokesman categorically denied it has been asked to do so.  Elsewhere, NERC said that more than half of the people in North America (180 million) could face electricity shortages this coming winter during extreme cold periods due to a lack of natural gas infrastructure.  In somewhat related news, TX passed a state constitutional amendment to create a $10 billion fund to improve the reliability of the state’s energy-generating infrastructure.  (However, this will have no impact this coming winter.)

So far this morning, MT, BDX, TAST, CTTAY, CRARY, EPC, GRAB, LI, EYE, NOMD, RCI, SN, TDG, and WWW all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AZN, DDS, SLVM, TPR, USFD, WB, and WRK reported revenue misses while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AVAH and BAK reported beats on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, COMM, GLP, HBI, and SONY missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that HBI lowered its forward guidance while LI, EYE, and NOMD raised their own guidance.

With that background, it looks like more indecision this morning as the premarket opened not far from the prior close and have printed small candles with mostly wicks so far in the early session. All three major index ETFs remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend, even though we are consolidating. Keep in mind that all three still remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, the T-line is catching up to the DIA and even the SPY. However, the QQQ remains a bit stretched above its T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, there is some room to run in either direction. Be aware of potential volatility from the Jobless Claims before the open and Chair Powell’s speech in the afternoon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was another bullish day in the market.  The SPY opened flat, DIA “gapped” down 0.09%, and QQQ gapped up 0.25% at the open.  At that point, all three major index ETFs made a morning rally, with QQQ by far the strongest.  Then after 11 a.m., all three meandered sideways in a fairly tight range the rest of the day, all of the ending on a down wave.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ with SPY and DIA printing a Spinning Top and QQQ printing a larger-body candle.  It is worth noting all three are at or have just broken through a potential resistance level.  All three also remain well above their T-line (8ema) although the consolidation in DIA is helping alleviate extension a bit.  This all happened on well-below-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.36%) leading the way lower while Technology (+1.06%) pulling the rest of the market higher.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.28%, DIA gained 0.95%, and QQQ gained 0.15%.  The VXX fell another 0.41% to close at 20.39 and T2122 fell again but remained in the middle of its mid-range at 48.88.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.571% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.19% to close at $77.45 per barrel.  So, Tuesday gave us a seventh-straight day of gains in the SPY and DIA and the eighth day of gains in the QQQ.  However, again this was another low-volume and indecisive day in the large-caps while things were more bullish in the QQQ. 

The major economic news reported Tuesday included September Exports, which came in higher than August at $261.10 billion (compared to an August value of $255.40 billion).  At the same time, September Imports were also up at $322.70 billion (versus the August value of $314.10 billion).  Together, these gave us a Sept. Trade Balance that came in higher than expected at -$61.50 billion (compared to a forecast of -$59.90 billion and an August reading of -$58.70 billion).

In Fed speak news, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari again said the Fed may need to do more in a Bloomberg interview Tuesday morning.  Kashkari said, “When activity continues to run this hot, that makes me question if policy is as tight as we assume it currently is.”  He continued, “So if you saw inflation tick back up and you saw continued very strong economic activity in the real side of the economy that would tell me we might need to do more.”  However, shortly afterward, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC that the Fed is making progress and reiterated that he continues to see the US as being on a “golden path” where inflation comes down without a recession or much of a slowing.  Goolsbee said, “Over the next couple of months, we might equal the fastest drop in inflation in the last century.”  Goolsbee continued, “So we’re making progress on the inflation rate … and as long as we’re making progress, as I’ve been saying for a while, the moment of arguing how high should the (policy) rate go is going to fade to how long should we keep rates at this level as inflation is coming down.” Later, Fed Governor Waller told a St. Louis Fed seminar (talking about the Q3 GDP data), “This was an outstanding quarter…this big blowout number.”  He continued, “Everything was booming.  So, this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward.”

In stock news, on Tuesday TM informed its dealers that it is reducing production at its joint venture plants in China.  Originally, TM had planned to reduce production in Oct. and Nov.  However, the announcement said production will now be reduced through February as the company tries to reduce an inventory glut.  Later, UAW members working for GD voted to approve the tentative contract agreement reached in October. At the same time, CNHI announced plans to delist in Italy and maintain a single listing on the NYSE as of Jan. 2, 2024.  In addition, CNHI announced a new $1 billion share buyback plan.  Later, Reuters reported that NFE had terminated a joint project with Mexican energy company Pemex to develop a deep-water LNG project in the Gulf of Mexico.  (The same project was canceled in 2016 as being too expensive before being revived in 2019.)  Elsewhere, STLA announced plans to retire its V-8 Hemi engine in Ram pickup trucks starting in 2025 as it moves toward hybrid and electric versions of the truck.  Later, TSLA reported a “notable increase” in new car registrations in China.  The report showed 14,000 insurance registrations of TSLA cars in China for the week ending Nov. 5 versus 10,800 the prior week.  After the close, Reuters reported that sources tell it that GS intends to “offload” the GM credit card business.  Also after the close, Bloomberg reported that AAPL has halted development of software for iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other devices so that developers can focus on finding glitches and bugs in the existing code.  This rare move came after a proliferation of bugs have been reported in recent months.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, JNJ announced Tuesday that it will seek FDA clearance for its Ottava robotic surgery system in 2024.  This comes after delays caused by technical issues and COVID-19 disruptions.  (If approved, JNJ’s system will compete with the ISRG and MDT robotic surgery systems.)  Across the pond, the UK government revealed upcoming legislation that will make automakers (not individual vehicle owners) liable for any accidents that happen when self-driving is engaged.  This came at the urging of the insurance industry and may auger events to come in the US.  Back in the US, the CFPB proposed a new rule Tuesday that could extend the agency’s reach to cover nonbank digital wallet providers such as AAPL, GOOGL, and PYPL.  At the same time, GE did settle with the Dept. of Justice for $9.4 million over allegations of selling uninspected and out-of-spec parts to the US Army and Navy.  Elsewhere, by a 2-1 vote, the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld an injunction on the state of CA, preventing them from requiring businesses to warn consumers that the active ingredient in MON’s Roundup weedkiller causes cancer.  Later the FTC sent a letter to ABBV, AZN, and TEVA saying the agency will dispute 110 patents the companies have filed with the FDA to prevent competitors from selling similar products. 

After the close, AKAM, DVA, DVN, EC, GILD, IAC, JHX, JKHY, KD, MBC, OXY, PRI, PRIM, RXT, and TOST all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AMRK, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, EBAY, PLUS, EXR, MOS, PR, RIVN, and STE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, AEL, BHF, CAPL, FG, FNF, GO, GXO, IOSP, MASI, HOOD, MRC, TKO, and VTRS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, ANDE, DAR, DOOR, OVV, PAAS, and SNBR missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that DVA, EBAY, and JKHY raised their forward guidance.  However, GO, MASI, and SNBR lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Singapore (-1.39%) and South Korea (-0.91%) pacing the seven losing exchanges while Taiwan (+0.33%), Australia (+0.26%), and Thailand (+0.25%) lead the five gaining exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar mixed picture at midday.  The CAC (+0.13%), DAX (-0.09%), and FTSE (unch) are typical of the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a similar flat and mixed start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.587% and Oil (WTI) is down another nine-tenths of a percent to $76.69 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday are limited to EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell (9:15 a.m.) as well as Fed member Williams (1:40 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, and KLG.  Then, after the close, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, the NY Fed reported Tuesday that US credit card debt has now topped $1 trillion to reach a record $1.08 trillion at the end of Q3.  That amounted to a $154 billion increase year-over-year.  It is worth noting that the average annual rate for US credit cards is not over 20% (also an all-time high).  Elsewhere, the Mortgage Brokers Assn. reported that the rate of the average US mortgage plunged by a quarter of a percent last week from 7.86% to 7.61%.  As a result, mortgage demand picked up with refinance loan applications rising 2% for the week and new home purchase loan applications increasing 3% versus the prior week.  Overall loan applications were up 2.5% on the week.

So far this morning, ADDYY, BIIB, EDR, GIB, CRL, CRZBY, FOUR, EONGY, ICL, BEKE, KNBWY, ADRNY, NYT, REYN, TEVA, and SHOO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GTN, NFE, and PTEN all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, MIDD, ODP, PFGC, SEAS, STWD, and UAA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, ADNT, CCO, PLTK, RPRX, and SPTN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like yet again Mr. Market is undecided early in the day. The Premarket started flat and mixed in all three major index ETFs. From that point, all three have printed small, indecisive, and mixed-color candles during the early session. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three remain a bit stretched from their T-line but the T2122 indicator has dropped back into its mid-range. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market remains in need of a pause or pullback to relieve extension. Remember that we’ve had quite a string of gains in a row. So we’re stretched to the upside. (However, also remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were basically undecided on Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.18%, QQQ gapped up 0.22%, and DIA opened up just 0.06% higher.  At that point, all three major index ETFs wobbled around on that opening level.  Then starting at about 11:15 a.m., the SPY and QQQ began (followed at noon by the DIA) a steady selloff that lasted until 2:15 p.m.  From there, all three rallied to recross the morning gap and end in bullish territory.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles in all three of the index ETFs.  The SPY and DIA printed Doji-type candles while the QQQ printed a Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs remain stretched above their T-line (8ema) and stayed above their 50sma (in the DIA also above the 200sma which is just below its 50sma).  This happened on far-below-average volume in all three of those ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were again in the red with Energy (-1.13%) leading the way lower while only Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) and Technology (+0.02%) were able to hang on to green territory (barely at that).  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.22%, DIA gained 0.12%, and QQQ gained 0.41%.  The VXX fell another 3.31% to close at 20.48 and T2122 dropped out of the over-bought territory and back into the mid-range at 67.37.  10-year bond yields climbed to 4.659% and Oil (WTI) gained slightly to close at $80.88 per barrel.  So, Monday gave us a sixth-straight day of gain in the SPY and DIA and the seventh in the QQQ.  However, this happened on very indecisive candles and all three of the major index ETFs remain very stretched.

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, there were some Fed speakers.  Fed Governor Cook told a Duke University event the rising short-term bond yields are not tied to the Fed’s policy plans.  She also said, “I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates.”  She went on to imply that she is in the “no more hikes” camp by saying “we hope that this will be restrictive enough such that we can return to our 2% target over time.”  However, on the other side, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he would prefer to err on the side of tightening too much rather than not enough.  Kashkari said, “Undertightening will not get us back to 2% in a reasonable time.”  The interview quoted him as going on to say “I am not ready to say we are in a good place (yet)” (in terms of having a high enough Fed Funds rate).  Elsewhere, a Fed report released Monday said bank loan officers are reporting a slowing of the tightening of credit requirements as well as (or maybe due to) a weaker loan demand.  The report said 60% of banks cite moderately to substantially weaker loan demand in Q3 (up from 43% in Q2).

In stock news, on Monday, C announced that they are aiming for at least a 10% cut to its workforce as part of CEO Frasier’s restructuring.  (For reference, C has 240,000 employees at this point.  So, we are talking about something like 24,000 layoffs.)  Later, CHE announced its board had approved a $300 million increase in its share buyback plan.  At the same time, the CEO of EQT said the US is facing an imminent energy crisis solely due to public resistance to building new pipeline capacity.  He went on to say that natural gas pipeline construction fell to a record low in 2022 and capacity is down almost 900 million cubic feet per day versus the 28 billion cu.ft./day in 2017.  Later, HGV announced that it had acquired BVH for $1.5 billion (including debt).  BVH shares shot almost 107% higher on the news.  Elsewhere, AIG announced it will raise funds by issuing a 50-million share secondary offering of CRBG.  (The underwriters of the secondary, GS, and JPM will have the option to buy an additional 7.5 million shares on top of the 50 million.)  In related news, AIG also initiated a tender offer to rebuy $1 billion worth of its outstanding debt securities.  At the same time, GM announced (that strikes) it had reversed a previous decision and rehired the 1,245 Brazilian employees it had laid off at the Sao Paulo S-10 pickup and Trailblazer engine plant.  Later, BCSF announced it was buying consulting firm Guidehouse from private Veritas Capital for $5.3 billion.  Meanwhile, WELL announced plans to offer $3 billion worth of common stock to fund property acquisitions.  At the same time, CPG announced plans to acquire HHRS for $15.33 per share.  Finally, on Monday night CNBC reported that the GM Cruise robotaxis requires human assistance every four to five miles.  The report said GM maintains one “driver assistant” for every 15-20 robotaxis to get the car past any tricky driving.  The report said assistants provide “wayfinding data” to the onboard computer and do not take over to remotely drive the vehicle.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, a lawsuit against WFC and Navy Federal Credit Union has moved to federal mediation.  The lawsuit alleges the financial institutions should have prevented the customer from transferring $3.6 million from his savings to a foreign entity (scam) because the customer had suffered a stroke and was diminished enough that his account had been flagged by Adult Protective Services. Later, MULN announced that it had been given EPA certification for its Class 1 EV cargo vans.  Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Ag reported that TSN is recalling 30,000 pounds of fully cooked dinosaur-shaped chicken nuggets after USDA inspectors found small pieces of metal in samples of the product.  Later, the FAA announced it would hold an additional round of runway safety meetings at 16 more airports in the coming weeks after recent troubling close-call incidents.  (LUV, FDX, and most of the major airlines as well as airport officials are required to attend.)  At the same time, TM confirmed the NHTSA report that it is recalling 1.9 million RAV4 SUVs over a defect that could cause a fire.  Later, NKE filed suit against SKX and private New Balance over alleged patent infringement.  Then after the close, GE agreed to pay $9.4 million to settle US federal claims that it sold “uninspected” and “out of spec” parts to the US Army and Navy.  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a second major antitrust case, this one filed by Epic Games and related to Google Play Store monopoly over Android app distribution.  After the close, a federal judge pared back a US government lawsuit against drug distributor COR (formerly ABC) for its part in the opioid epidemic.  (The Dept. of Justice alleges COR changed its order monitoring policies, dramatically reducing oversight of opioid orders.)  Finally, the FTC has sent requests to TPR and CPRI for more information about the planned $8.5 billion purchase of CPRI by TPR.

After the close Monday, ARKO, CNO, COHR, CXW, FANG, FN, FSK, IFF, JELD, NXPI, PARR, O, RNG, SVC, TRIP, UIS, and WMK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BKD and TDC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CBT, CE, CLOV, CTRA, GT, ICUI, RHP, STRL, and VRTX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ATSG, COMP, CRGY, and SANM missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CE and SANM both lowered their forward guidance.  At the same time, CXW, FN, RNG, and STRL raised their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Thailand (-0.18%) in the red.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+5.66% not a typo, huge rally after a ban on short-selling), Japan (+2.37%), Shenzhen (+2.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.71%) led a huge rally.  In Europe, bourses are more mixed with an even split of green and red at midday.  With that said, the big boys of Europe are red with the CAC (-0.36%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.05%) leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.595% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.42% to $81.65 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes September Imports, Sept. Exports, and Sept. Trade Balance (all three at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Waller (10 a.m.) and Williams (noon).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, ADV, APD, GBTG, AMRX, BCO, CG, CLVT, CNHI, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, EMR, EVRG, FIS, GEN, GEO, GFS, INGR, KKR, LCII, MLCO, PRGO, RXO, TAC, UBER, VTNR, VST, WAT, and ZBH.  Then, after the close, AMRK, AKAM, AEL, ANDE, BHF, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, CAPL, DAR, DVA, DVN, EBAY, EC, PLUS, EXR, FNF, GILD, GO, GXO, IAC, IOSP, JKHY, JHX, KD, MASI, DOOR, MOS, MRC, OXY, OVV, PAAS, PR, PRI, PRIM, RXT, RIVN, HOOD, SNBR, STE, TKO, TOST, and VTRS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories and hear from Fed Chair Powell as well as Fed member Williams again.  On Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, KLG, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS.  On Thursday, AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, GS said Monday that, in their estimation, the current high yield of Treasury bonds is the equivalent of four quarter-point Fed rate hikes.  This reduces the need for additional FOMC rate hikes (again, by their estimate).  Elsewhere, OpenAI announced the next version of its ChatGPT AI app. At the same time, Natural Gas prices fell 7% Monday after the EIA reported record output and updated its Winter forecast to be milder. Finally, in late-breaking news, WE filed for bankruptcy as had been expected for some time.

So far this morning, AHCO, AMRX, BCO, CLVT, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, FOR, GBTG, GEO, GFS, KKR, RXO, SGRY, TAC, VTNR, AND ZBH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, APD, CG, EVRG, INGR, PRGO, AND WAT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UBER beat on revenue while missing on the earnings lines.  Unfortunately, ADV, CNHI, EMR, LCII, VST, and FIS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CNHI and SGRY lowered their forward guidance.  However, DDOG, EMR, and VST raised their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market is again undecided early in the day. The Premarket started lower in all three major index ETFs. From that point, all three that printed small, indecisive, and mixed-color dandles during the early session. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls still have the control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three remain a bit stretched from their T-line but the T2122 indicator has dropped back into its mid-range. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market remains in need of a pause or pullback to relieve extension. (However, as always, remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls were in charge again all day Friday with the SPY gapping 0.54% higher, the DIA gapping up 0.50%, and the QQQ gapping up a smaller 0.36%.  From there, all three of the major index ETFs put in a long slow rally that meandered its way to the highs of the day at 3:05 p.m. only to take modest profits the last hour of the day.  This action gave us gap-up, white-bodied candles in all three.  The SPY and QQQ had no lower wick but did have upper wicks from the late afternoon profit-taking.  However, DIA printed a gap-up Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs are now extended above the T-line (8ema) and are now sitting at or near a resistance level.  DIA also crossed up through both the 50sma and 200sma (which are squeezed), while the QQQ crossed up through its own 50sma and SPY just crossed up through its 50sma.  This all happened on average volume in the DIA and the QQQ and slightly lower-than-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were again in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.46%) way out front leading the way higher and Energy (-0.69%) lagging far behind (by almost 1.5%) the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.91%, DIA gained 0.65%, and QQQ gained 1.17%.  The VXX fell another 2.35% to close at 21.18 and T2122 climbed even further into its overbought territory at 96.33.  10-year bond yields dropped again to end the day at 4.572% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 2% to close at $80.78 per barrel.  So, just like every day last week, on Friday the markets opened higher and continued North.   For the week, SPY gained 5.85%, DIA gained 5.06%, and QQQ gained 6.49% on 5-straight higher closes in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news reported Friday, October Average hourly Earnings came in lower but above expectations at 4.1% (year-on-year) compared to a September value of +4.3% and a forecast of +4.0%.  On a month-on-month basis, this was lower than expected at +0.2% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and a September reading of +0.3%).  At the same time, October Nonfarm Payrolls increased but also less than predicted at +150k (compared to a forecast of +180k and down tremendously from the September value of +297k).  October Private Nonfarm Payrolls also were up but far less than was anticipated at +99k (versus a forecast of +158k and September’s +246k).  At the same time, the October Participation Rate fell to 62.7% (compared to a forecast and prior reading that were both 62.8%).  Together, this led to a tick higher in the October Unemployment Rate to 3.9% (versus the forecast and September value of 3.8%). Later the October S&P Global Services PMI came in lower than expected at 50.6 (compared to a forecast of 50.9 but up from September’s 50.1).  The Oct. S&P Global Composite PMI then was also a bit lower at 50.7 (versus a forecast of 51.0 but still up from a September reading of 50.2).  Later, the October ISM Non-Mfg. PMI came in soft but still indicated expansion at 51.8 (compared to a forecast of 53.0 and a September value of 53.6).  Lastly, the October ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index were hotter than planned at 58.6 (versus the forecast of 56.6 but still down slightly from the September reading of 58.9).

In stock news, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday that NFLX is considering entry into the live-sport streaming by buying the rights to Premier Boxing.  AMZN is already bidding on that series of events after PARA announced it would be exiting the boxing broadcasting arena at the end of 2023.  Later, BMWYY (BMW) released a strong Q4 sales forecast saying that its order book is filled into even the first few months of 2024.  The luxury car company said it had no interest in or need for price cuts the way several of its competitors (such as TSLA in the electric arena) have engaged.  At the same time, JLL announced it has expanded its borrowing limit to $3.3 billion and pushed out the maturity of its debt to November 2028 (from April 2026).  This was done to shore up the real estate giant’s balance sheet.  Later, reports surfaced that HLI is in talks to acquire private investment firm Triago.  Elsewhere, the union representing pilots told Reuters that contract negotiations with FDX are now scheduled to restart Monday. The negotiations will be under new union leadership after the union rejected a tentative deal (for a 30% pay increase) reached by the company and prior union leadership.  At the same time, LGF.A and LGF.B subsidiary Starz announced restructuring including laying offs 10% of its staff and exiting operations in the UK and Australia.  Later, LCID announced price cuts on its Air luxury electric sedans by 7.9% – 9.1%.  In the same industry (but other end of the price range) Chinese EV-maker NIO announced it will cut 10% of its workforce and may divest non-core branches across China.  At the same time, S&P and MCO both upgraded the credit rating of F after nearly 4-years of their bonds being rated as “junk.” At the close, KHC announced a major leadership shakeup with reshuffling happening at the beginning of fiscal year 2024. 

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, the US Dept. of Transportation said that it agrees with a complaint made by JBLU (and co-signed by a US Airline Industry group) against the Netherlands and the EU.  (The Dutch government had denied JBLU 339 landing slot at Amsterdam Schiphol airport in order to east noise pollution.)  As a result, JBLU had asked the US to delay granting a landing license to German or KLM (French-Dutch) airlines at NY airports.  Later, ALK was sued by three passengers after an off-duty pilot traveling in the cockpit jump seat tried to crash a flight headed for San Francisco on Oct. 22.  The plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Portland, where the offender was arrested.  However, the suit claims the airline was at fault for allowing non-duty people to travel on the flight deck.  Later, BCS was sued by investors who claimed the company should have known of its former CEO’s close ties to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein (and that lack of control cost those investors money as the ties between Epstein and the former CEO came to light).  In late afternoon, Reuters reported that the US Financial Stability Oversight Council agreed to expand their oversight of non-bank asset managers and hedge funds which pose a systemic risk to the financial system.  (This is the reinstatement of oversight and reporting scrapped by the ex-President.)  Among those impacted will be BLK.  After the close Friday, Reuters reported that the FTC used a secret algorithm called “Project Nessie” to push up prices by punishing its own sellers who also sold via WMT’s e-commerce system.  At the same time, in an unexpected twist, the US Forest Service announced Friday that it wants to allow carbon capture and storage projects inside national forest lands.

After the close Friday, TSE reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board with only Thailand (-0.18%) in the red.  Meanwhile, South Korea (+5.66% not a typo, huge rally after a ban on short-selling), Japan (+2.37%), Shenzhen (+2.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.71%) led a huge rally.  In Europe, bourses are more mixed with an even split of green and red at midday.  With that said, the big boys of Europe are red with the CAC (-0.36%), DAX (-0.21%), and FTSE (-0.05%) leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.595% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.42% to $81.65 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AMG, AL, BNTX, BAM, DISH, SATS, ES, GOL, HGV, KNF, THS, and VVX.  Then, after the close, ATSG, ARKO, BKD, CBT, CE, CLOV, CNO, COMP, CTRA, CXW, CRGY, FANG, FN, GT, ICUI, IFF, ITUB, JELD, NXPI, PARR, O, RNG, RHP, SANM, SVC, STRL, TRIP, and VRTX report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, Sept. Imports, Sept. Exports, Sept. Trade Balance, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and Weekly API Crude Oil Stocks are reported.  We also hear from Fed members Waller and Williams.  Then Wednesday, we get EIA Crude Oil Inventories and hear from Fed Chair Powell as well as Fed member Williams again.  On Thursday, we have the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, WASDE Ag Report, and Fed Chair Powell speaks again.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, AHCO, ADV, APD, GBTG, AMRX, BCO, CG, CLVT, CNHI, DHI, DDOG, DK, ELAN, EMR, EVRG, FIS, GEN, GEO, GFS, INGR, KKR, LCII, MLCO, PRGO, RXO, TAC, UBER, VTNR, VST, WAT, ZBH, AMRK, AKAM, AEL, ANDE, BHF, CIVI, COTY, CPNG, CAPL, DAR, DVA, DVN, EBAY, EC, PLUS, EXR, FNF, GILD, GO, GXO, IAC, IOSP, JKHY, JHX, KD, MASI, DOOR, MOS, MRC, OXY, OVV, PAAS, PR, PRI, PRIM, RXT, RIVN, HOOD, SNBR, STE, TKO, TOST, and VTRS report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from ADNT, BIIB, GIB, CRL, CCO, SID, EDR, GTN, IBP, BEKE, K, MIDD, NFE, NYT, NXST, ODP, PTEN, PFGC, PLTK, PSNY, RL, RPRX, REYN, RBLX, SEAS, FOUR, SWX, SPTN, STWD, SHOO, TRP, TEVA, UAA, UWMC, VSH, WBD, KLG, AE, AFRM, ALTG, AMC, APP, ASH, ATO, GBS, ATG, CENX, CTVA, ENS, FLT, G, HP, HUBS, JXN, JAZZ, KGC, LYFT, MFC, MATV, MGM, SU, TTWO, MODG, TTEC, TWLO, UHAL, VSAT, and DIS.  On Thursday, AEE, MT, BDX, CLMT, TAST, COMM, DBD, EPC, GLP, GRAB, HBI, HE, HBM, IHRT, KELYA, LI, EYE, NOMD, ACDC, RCI, SN, SCSC, SONY, SLVM, TPR, TDG, USFD, WRK, WWW, YPF, CANO, CPRI, FLO, HOLX, ILMN, LNW, MTD, NWSA, NGL, PBR, RBA, STN, TTD, TPC, U, and WYNN report.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AU, and STNE report.

In miscellaneous news, major US banks including BAC, CCF, USB, TFC, and WFC all experienced disruptions in processing deposits Friday due to problems with Automated Clearing House (a major network for processing transactions).  Elsewhere, it has come out that as part of its deal with the UAW, GM has agreed to invest $13 billion in US facilities by April 2028.  Meanwhile, Warren Buffett’s BRKB announced a huge blowout earnings that featured a 41% increase in operating earnings and a record amount of cash on hand of more than $157 billion.  (It is worth noting that Buffett is buying short-term Treasury bonds with his massive pile of cash.)  However, it was not all sunshine and rainbows for BRKB as the company announced a $24.1 billion loss on investments in Q3 (mostly on its massive AAPL stake).

In still other news, Elon Musk’s xAI company (not to be confused with his X platform, formerly Twitter) released its own AI tool named “Grok” over the weekend.  The late-to-the-party AI, was trained on data from X…so, it will have all the intelligence and correct answers Twitter has been known for over the last decade.  (That was a joke in case anyone actually thinks social media is accurate on average.)  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports the hedge funds made a terrible trade last week by taking the largest short position in Treasuries Futures since 2006.  The levered funds did this just before a weak US bond sale and weak jobs data led to a big bond rally.  Finally, the ex-president is scheduled to testify in the damages portion of the NY state trial meant to determine what he, his adult children, and his company must pay for their civil fraud conviction in NY state.  (The guilty verdict on the main count was reached summarily based on the mountain of evidence. The trial is not about guilt, which has been established, only about how many tens or hundreds of millions of dollars they are ordered to pay and what other penalties, like loss of business licenses, might be imposed.)

So far this morning, AMG, BRKB, KNF, and PHIN have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BNTX and THS reported misses on revenue while beating one earnings.  However, DISH, and ES missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BNTX and THS both also lowered their forward guidance.  (AL, BAM, GOL, HGV, and VVX all report closer to the opening bell.)

With that background, it looks like Mr. Market has not yet decided on what to do today. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher but had put in small, indecisive, and mixed-color candles in the early session since that higher open. All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and 50smas. So, the Bulls are still in full control of the short-term trend. Keep in mind that all three remain 4%-5% below their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend. In terms of extension, all three are a bit stretched from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deep in its over-bought territory. So, while there is some room to run in either direction, the market is in need of a pause or pullback just to relieve extension. (However, as always, remember that the market can stay stretched longer than we can stay afloat knowing it has to turn soon.) So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day higher Wednesday with SPY gapping up 0.23%, DIA gapping up 0.16%, and QQQ gapping up 0.21%. After that open, QQQ led the way immediately rallying while the SPY took 15 minutes before following and DIA actually recrossed its opening gap before following in the rally that continued until 11 a.m. for all three.  At that point, all three major index ETFs traded in a long sideways trough that lasted until the Fed Chair Powell’s press conference.  However, once Powell spoke the Bulls were off to the races again in a sharp rally that lasted until 3:40 p.m. only to be very slightly blunted by profit-taking the last 20 minutes.  This action gave us gap-up, large white candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a white-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.  All three major index ETFs crossed back above their T-line (8ema) with SPY now located just below its 200sma.  All of this happened on above-average volume in the DIA and QQQ and average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, all 10 sectors were again in the green with Utilities (+1.57%) way out front leading the way higher and Consumer Defensive (+0.11%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.05%, DIA gained 0.67%, and QQQ gained 1.74%.  The VXX fell 4.35% to close at 22.43 and T2122 climbed again to the center of its mid-range at 52.09.  10-year bond yields dropped to end the day at 4.747% and Oil (WTI) fell to close at $80.90 per barrel.  So, it seems the Bulls liked the ADP precursor to the October Payrolls data and popped markets at the open and for the first part of the day.  Then we saw hand-wringing and waiting on the widely expected Fed decision.  However, when Fed Chair Powell told markets we were in a goldilocks scenario, the Bulls ran again only taking profits in the last minutes of the day.

The major economic news reported Wednesday included the October ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in lower than expected at 113k (compared to a 150k forecast but still higher than the September reading of 89k).  Later the S&P Global Mfg. PMI was reported in line with what was predicted at 50.0 (versus a forecast of 50.0 and slightly better than the September 49.8 value).  At the same time, the October ISM Mfg. PMI came in lower than anticipated at 46.7 (compared to a forecast of 49.0 and a September reading of 49.0).  October ISM Mfg. Employment was reported lower than expected at 46.8 (versus a forecast of 50.3 and well down from the September 51.2).  Meanwhile, Sept. JOLTs Job Opening remains stronger than predicted at 9.553 million (compared to a forecasted 9.250 million and even higher than the August value of 9.497 million).  Later EIA Crude Oil Inventories rose but by less than anticipated at +0.774 million barrels (versus a forecast of +1.261 million barrels and the prior week’s +1.371 million barrels number).  Then, as almost universally expected, the FOMC held the Fed Funds rate at 5.50%.

In his post-decision press conference, the key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell were that the US economy is strong, he is hesitant to advocate for a December rate hike, he is unwilling to commit to not hiking, and high treasury yields help but he was unwilling to say specifically how much they help.  In general, Powell implied that there is no hurry and things are going so well that we can wait and see. Powell said, “Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.”  When asked if the Fed is done raising rates, he said, “We’re not confident at this time that we’ve reached such a stance.”  When pressed further about when the Fed will start cutting rates, he said “The question of rate cuts just doesn’t come up right now” adding “It’s fair to say the question we’re asking is should we hike more.”  When Powell was asked about whether rising bond yields are supplanting the need for additional hikes, the Chair said those yields would need to be substantially higher before they bear on specific hike decisions.  However, he added that higher Treasury yields “are showing through” to real-world borrowing costs (which helps discourage growth that is too strong) and “it remains to be seen” if persistently high yields could eliminate the need for more hikes down the road. 

In stock news, NIO announced its October deliveries of 16,074 vehicles (up 3% from September and up 60% from October 2022).  Competitor XPEV reported 20,002 cars sold (a whopping 31% increase versus September and a 292% increase over October 2022).  However, XPEV only delivered 8,741 cars, which while a company record was obviously far below demand.  LI (the other major Chinese EV competitor) delivered 40,422 cars in October (a 12% month-on-month increase and a 302% increase over Oct. 2022).  At the same time, NDAQ announced it had acquired Adenza from Thoma Bravo for $10.5 billion.  NDAQ said it expects Adenza to yield $80 million in cost-saving synergies and $100 million in long-term revenue increases.  Later, SCHW announced it had laid off 5% – 6% of its headcount (between 1,795 – 2,154 jobs).  By late morning, TM announced it is raising the wages and benefits of its US non-union workers in response to the UAW pay increases won from the Big 3 automakers. Later, Reuters reported that FUN and SIX are in merger talks.  After the close, DIS officially announced it is acquiring the remaining one-third stake in Hulu from CMCSA.  In the wide-expected deal, DIS will pay CMCSA $8.61 billion by December 1.  Also after the close, CLX said it expects to rebuild dwindling customer inventories by the end of Q4.  CLX has fallen way behind after an August cyberattack took its order fulfillment operation offline for more than a month starting in August.  Finally, late Wednesday evening, DAL announced it is laying off “some” corporate workers in order to cut costs.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, in the UK, a court ruled the British equivalent of a $2 billion class-action lawsuit against AAPL can proceed for allegedly hiding defective batteries by throttling performance in millions of iPhones.  In other European news, the EU announced a ban related to META’s handling of user data on FaceBook and Instagram.  The ban (which may be finalized as soon as next week) would require META to explicitly ask for and receive user permission before using any personal information to deliver targeted advertising.  This would be a huge blow to META, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN, and other companies that sell targeted ads.  Later a US Court of Appeals judge ordered the SEC to “fix” what he called defects in its rule on share buybacks.  The rule (adopted in May) requires disclosure of share buyback data.  The decision was a significant win for corporate lobbyists who had argued for keeping such data undisclosed.  In late afternoon, the FDIC suspended the auction of assets of FBNC following the bank’s striking a deal with investors to pump $35 million into the delisted bank.  After the close, a (now former) GS investment banker was sentenced to three years in prison for passing tips on mergers GS was working on to accomplice traders.  Also after the close, the SEC announced it is investigating WFC related to conflicts of interest in its customer cash sweep choices.  At the same time, the Dept. of Energy warned NFE that if any of its Altamira floating LNG project was actually located onshore in Mexico, the company needs to reapply for a new export permit.  The project was expected to start shipping LNG this month. Elsewhere, the SEC filed charges SWI and its Chief Info. Security Officer alleging fraud and regulatory control violations related to the MOVEit cyberattack where Russian hackers compromised companies and Pentagon email addresses.  Finally, the NHTSA announced late Wednesday that TM is recalling 1.85 million RAV4 SUVs over fire risks related to replacement battery installation defects.

After the close, AFL, ABNB, ALL, ATUS, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, AVT, AXS, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CPE, CWH, CLX, COKE, CW, DASH, EA, ET, ETSY, EXAS, GFL, HST, IR, MTW, MRO, MCK, MELI, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, PK, PYPL, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, REZI, SCI, SBGI, SP, SUM, SMCI, WTS, Z, and ZG all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ANSS, CAR, BKH, CHRW, CRC, CTSH, DXC, THG, PTVE, CNXN, PRU, RNR, RUN, TYL, WES, WMB, and WSC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AFG, CHRD, ESTE, HLF, ROKU, SIGI, and WERN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ALB, BALY, BMRN, CF, CAKE, EIX, NVST, EXEL, LNC, VAC, MET, NOG, NUS, NTR, PTC, RRX, SEDG, TS, and VSTO all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ABNB, EXAS, HST, IR, PTVE, PYPL, QRVO, QCOM, and SMCI all raised their forward guidance.  Unfortunately, ANSS, BXP, CTSH, VAC, NTR, PTC, and SEDG lowered their guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned strongly to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.94%) and Shanghai (-0.45%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+2.23%), South Korea (+1.81%), New Zealand (+1.78%), and Thailand (+1.74%) led the rest of the region higher.  In Europe, we see strong green numbers across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.77%), DAX (+1.51%), and FTSE (+1.26%) lead the region higher on volume with several of the smaller bourses up well more than the volume leaders in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a higher start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.55% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.84% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields a down slightly to 4.711% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 1.5% to $81.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 a.m.), September Factory Orders (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, and ZTS.  Then, after the close, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, BAC said Wednesday that its “Sell-Side Indicator” is at levels of extreme bearishness, which is bullish for stocks.  (In essence, they are saying their proprietary indicator says the market is extremely oversold.)  The indicator value implies a 15.5% return on the SPY in the next 12 months.

In miscellaneous news, BAC said Wednesday that its “Sell-Side Indicator” is at levels of extreme bearishness, which is bullish for stocks.  (In essence, they are saying their proprietary indicator says the market is extremely oversold.)  The indicator value implies a 15.5% return on the SPY in the next 12 months.  Elsewhere, JPM CEO Dimon criticized the state of TX (and by extension the other GOP-led states of similar ilk) which has passed laws designed to punish banks for any policies that stop them from working with fossil fuel industries.  Meanwhile, SBUX gave another hint that the economy remains strong.  The coffee company reported same-store sales grew 8% mostly attributed to higher average purchases but also a 3% increase in customers.

So far this morning, FOX, GOLF, WMS, APTV, BAX, BR, BRKR, COR, CI, COP, CRTO, DLX, DFH, LLY, NVRI, EPAM, FOXA, GCI, GEL, DINO, HWM, HII, ITT, KTB, LAMR, MAR, TAP, MUR, NVO, PLTR, PBF, PENN, PWR, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SEE, SHOP, SBUX, TFX, VIRT, and VNT all reported beats on both the revenue and the earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADT, AEP, APG, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BDC, BWA, CVE, XRAY, DUK, ENTG, H, ING, IRM, KBR, DNOW, NRG, OGE, PBI, PRMW, SHEL, SRCL, WEN, WLK, and ZTS all missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, EXC, PTON, RCM, and TRN beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  However, CIGI, PZZA, MD, STGW, and TPX missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in full control in the premarket this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the early session higher and have put in large, white-bodied candles with little wick since then. All three of the major index ETFs are now above their T-line (8ema) and SPY is crossing back above its 200sma in the premarket. Keep in mind that all three still remain near correction territory, being down 6%-7% from their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the longer-term trend while the Bulls have control this week. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line while the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, there is room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find the momentum. This morning we seem to be getting energy from good earnings reports and Fed decision, statement, and comments yesterday. However, there is some news in the premarket and day that could give us volatility. So, be aware of that potential volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Tuesday was the second straight day with the Bulls in charge. All three major index ETFs opened flat before putting in a modest selloff the first 30 minutes of the day.  At that point, the Bulls took over to lead a gradual and wavy rally that lasted the rest of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied, Hammer-type candles.  DIA crossed back up above its T-line (8ema), SPY is right at the T-line (just cents below), and QQQ is now close to retesting its own T-line.  This happened on average volume in the DIA and less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were again green with Healthcare (+0.90%) and Communication Services (+0.89%) leading the way higher and Basic Material (-0.03%) was the only sector in the red (barely). At the same time, the SPY gained 0.63%, DIA gained 0.38%, and QQQ gained 0.48%.  The VXX plummeted another 6.42% to close at 23.45 and T2122 climbed up out of its oversold territory and into the mid-range at 38.60.  10-year bond yields rose to end the day at 4.924% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.14% to close at $81.35 per barrel.    

The major economic news reported Tuesday included the Q3 Employment Cost Index, which came in a bit hot at +1.1% (compared to a forecast of +1.0% and a Q2 reading of +1.0%).  Later, the October Chicago PMI came in a bit low at 44.0 (versus a 45.0 forecast and slightly less than the September value of 44.1).  A few minutes later, the Conf. Board Consumer Confidence came in better than predicted at 102.6 (compared to a 100.0 forecast but a bit less than the 104.3 September reading).  Finally, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks showed a modestly less-than-anticipated oil inventory build of 1.347 million barrels (versus a 1.601-million-barrel increase forecast but significantly larger than the prior week’s 2.668-million-barrel drawdown.

In stock news, JBL announced it has acquired INTC’s Silicon Photonics “pluggable optical transceiver” product lines for an undisclosed amount.  At the same time, DOC and PEAK announced an all-stock merger that results in a $21 billion healthcare real estate company.  (The company will trade under DOC when the deal closes in early 2024.)  Elsewhere, TM announced it will invest an additional $8 billion in its existing NC EV battery plant, creating 3,000 new jobs.  At the same time, BX and Vista Equity Partners announced they will jointly buy Australian firm Energy Exemplar.  (Both firms will hold 50% in what sources say was a more than $1 billion valued Aussie firm.)  Later, WE announced it had decided to withhold interest payments on roughly $6.4 million of its senior notes when they become due today (11/1).  The company has a 30-day grace period but raised concern when it expressed “substantial doubt” about whether it can continue operations back in August.  (However, after the close, sources told Reuters WE would file for bankruptcy as soon as next week.)  By mid-afternoon, MSFT announced they had released a major Windows 11 update which includes the debut of Ai-powered Windows Copilot.  At the same time, BNS sold its 20% interest in the financial services unit of Canadian Tire back to the retailer for $647 million.  (BNS had paid $500 million for that stake in 2014.)  Sticking North of the border, V and BMO announced a partnership to offer a new installment payment service to Canadian cardholders starting in 2024.  Back in the US, shares of VRV spiked Tuesday following the announcement of an expanding partnership with LLY where LLY is acquiring the rights to multiple VRV gene editing products.  At the same time, NVDA shared dropped almost 5% at one point on a Wall Street Journal article that reported the company would have to cancel $5 billion in Chinese orders to remain in compliance with US restrictions on selling advanced AI chips to China.  Still NVDA stock recovered to close down less than 1%.  

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, TTM was awarded $1 billion by a three-member arbitration tribunal in India in the action they brought against Indian regional development authority.  That authority had solicited TTM to buy land and build a plant in West Bengal India.  However, regional authorities then forced TTM to return the land acquired for the plant and the company had to move the project to another region of the country.  Later, a PA jury ordered MMTOF (Mitsubishi Motors) to pay just under $977 million in damages to a man who became quadriplegic in a vehicle rollover due to an allegedly defective seatbelt.  Elsewhere, the Dutch consumer watchdog group is challenging the fees AAPL charges to dating app providers in Netherlands.  Bloomberg reported this was part of a long-standing case against AAPL, with the authority having fined AAPL $53 million in 2021 for failure to comply with EU antitrust regulations.  At the same time, Semafor reported Tuesday that MS is close to finalizing a settlement with the US Dept of Justice and SEC for between $500 million and $1 billion related to MS mishandling of private “block trading” stock sales.  Later, NOK filed suit against AMZN and HPQ in multiple jurisdictions claiming unauthorized use of NOK’s video-related technologies in streaming devices and services.  (NOK recently entered into a licensing deal with AAPL over the same technologies.)  Late in the day, a group representing automakers (GM, TM, VLKAF, and HYMTF) announced that it opposes the proposed CLF acquisition of X.  In a letter to FTC Chair Khan and Dept. of Justice Antitrust Chief Kanter, the group claimed it would reduce competition and cause increased steel prices in the US.  Meanwhile, TSLA won the first US trial over allegations that its Autopilot feature led to a death.  This was a major victory for the company although the company faces a number of very similar lawsuits.  After the close, GOOGL announced it had settled claims from dating app MTCH which had claimed GOOGL had monopolized Android app distribution.  This settlement leaves Epic Games as the sole plaintiff in the antitrust suit against GOOGL with jury selection set for this week and the trial scheduled to begin Nov. 6.  At the same time, D was given approval from the US Dept. of Interior to build a 2.6-gigawatt offshore windfarm off the Virginia coast (the largest windfarm built offshore in the US).  Finally, after the close, the FDA approved AMGN’s version of JNJ’s blockbuster psoriasis treatment Stelara.

After the close, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, CZR, CHK, HY, LFUS, MTCH, and MTH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EQH, LUMN, SKY, TX, and VOYA all beat on revenue while missing on earnings. On the other side, FSLR, MCY, LBTYA, OI, QUAD, SON, and UNM all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. However, BXC, ENLC, EQR, HUN, OKE, and YUMC missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that LFUS, MTCH, MTH, and SON lowered their forward guidance while OKE raised its own guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the bullish side.  Japan (+2.41%) was by far the biggest gainer after the Japanese government announced a stimulus package, followed by South Korea (+1.03%), and New Zealand (+0.87%).  On the red side, India and Malaysia tied at -0.47% to pace the losses.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similarly mixed but a bit more bearish picture taking shape at midday.  The CAC (-0.06%), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (-0.16%) lead the region on volume as nine of the 15 bourses in the region are modestly in the red while six are modestly in the green.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures indicate a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.33% open, the SPY is implying a -0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.903% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.68% to $82.41 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 a.m.), S&P US Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, and Sept. JOLTs Job Openings (all at 10 a.m.), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), FOMC Rate Decision and FOMC Statement (both at 2 p.m.), and the Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  On The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, and YUM.  Then, after the close, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Tuesday evening that the Panama Canal will again cut its daily ship crossing slots due to drought.  (Prolonged drought has seriously depleted the lakes used to fill the many locks used to make the transit across the canal.  For example, October rainfall was the lowest for a month since 1950.)  This reduction will be to 25 vessels per day with additional planned reductions to 18 per day over the next three months.  These reductions will push up shipping costs (by cutting available vessels while some sit in the queue and by increasing transit distances and times to avoid the canal) and reduce the volume of global trade both immediately and over coming months.

In mortgage news, as rates remain high (relatively speaking), the proportion of demand looking for adjustable-rate mortgages popped nearly 10% this week.  According to the Mortgage Brokers Assn. the national average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate loan actually fell from 7.90% to 7.86%.  (Closing points also fell from 0.77 to 0.73 this week.)  Even so, applications for a new home purchase loan fell 1%, and refinance loan applications fell 4% for the week.  And among this smaller number of loan applications, the number looking for an adjustable-rate mortgage rose 10% to 10.7% of all mortgages.

So far this morning, AXTA, EAT, CHEF, CVS, DRVN, ESAB, FDP, GRMN, GNRC, HUM, JHG, KHC, LPX, LKNCY, PSN, SUN, TEL, TT, UTHR, and VRSK all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BLCO, BLDR, CDW, DD, ETR, EL, IDXX, IQV, KMT, LML, NI, TRI, TRMB, W, and YUM all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, SITE and SSRM beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, APO, DTE, and TKR missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that EAT, ESAB, NI, PSN, and TT all raised their forward guidance while EL lowered its guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are in control in the premarket this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the early session lower and have put in smallish black-body candles since then. The DIA has now crossed back below its T-line while the SPY and QQQ moved back down away from their own 8emas. However, these are all Bearish Harami candles (meaning indecision leaning bearish) this morning. Keep in mind that all three remain near correction territory, being down 7%-9% from their summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the trend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line while the T2122 indicator is back in its mid-range. So, there is room to run in either direction if the Bulls or Bears can find the momentum. Today, that energy might come from the 10 a.m. news drop but it is more likely to come in reaction to the Fed or Fed Presser at 2 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. respectively. So, beware of volatility, even as the market has priced in a 97.2% probability the FOMC will hold rates steady. Words matter and we can expect a tweak to the FOMC statement as well as what Fed Chair Powell says in his remarks and answers this afternoon.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The Bulls had the momentum pretty much all day Monday. The SPY and DIA gapped up 0.69% at the open while the QQQ gapped up 0.73%.  All three of those major index ETFs followed through mildly for the first 30 minutes.  At that point, the DIA led the way for a change, beginning a mild bullish trend at about 10:50 a.m. while the SPY and QQQ kept meandering until their own stronger rallies started at 1 p.m. and lasted until 3:30 p.m.  Then all three have very modest selloffs the last 30 minutes of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three. The SPY and QQQ both printed larger-body Spinning Top candles while the DIA printed a large-body candle that retested and just backed down from its T-line (8ema).  This happened on above-average volume in the DIA and modestly below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, nine of 10 sectors were green with communications Services (+1.77%) led the way higher while Energy (-0.05%) was the only sector in the red (barely).  At the same time, SPY gained 1.20%, DIA gained 1.58%, and QQQ gained 1.13%.  The VXX plummeted 7.46% to close at 25.06 and T2122 climbed but remains just inside the top end of its oversold territory at 18.25.  10-year bond yields rose to end the day at 4.888 and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.58% to close at $82.48 per barrel.    

There was no major economic news reported Monday.

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, the Canadian Unifor strike against STLA was settled with a tentative deal within hours of the start of a Unifor strike.  Later, the UAW announced it had reached a tentative deal with the last of the Big 3 Automakers (GM).  Interestingly, GM says the 6-week strike cost is more than $400 million per week, which is more than double what F (who settled last Wednesday) said the strike had cost it.  The 25% wage increase over four years that all three carmakers agreed to was the first significant wage increase for the UAW since 2008 when they gave up large amounts of wages and benefits to save the industry.  The GM deal includes a 25% base pay increase through April 2028 which when coupled with cost-of-living increases will bring the top union wage to $42/hour by the end of the contract.  It also reduced the time it takes a worker to reach the top tier of pay and brought two new GM business units under the deal. Finally, the deal increases retiree benefits which were major concessions made by the union back in 2008.

In stock news, Reuters reported Monday that AVGO expects its $69 billion purchase of VMW to close before its Nov. 26 deadline, despite continuing Chinese investigation of the deal over antitrust concerns.  AVGO told Reuters that the Chinese scrutiny did not pose a legal impediment to closing the deal.  At the same time, SAN announced it is set to unload $5.29 billion in “bad” real estate assets in order to shore up its balance sheet.  Elsewhere, WMT announced it is investing $9 billion over two years to upgrade 1,400 stores (out of 4,717).  117 WMT stores featuring upgrades worth $500 million are set to open Friday.  At the same time, F announced it is adding 15k TSLA chargers to its own vehicle charging network.  (No timeline was given for the addition, but F now expects to offer 106,000 chargers in the US in early 2024.)  Later, Reuters reported that GSK accounted for two-thirds of the RSV vaccines in the US since early September, dominating the only rival PFE.  (GSK’s $280 shot is $15 cheaper than the PFE shot.)  Analysts say there will be in the low hundreds of millions of RSV vaccinations in 2023.  At the same time, Reuters reports that BP is actively seeking joint ventures in the US shale natural gas production space.  This includes in the Permian Basis where XOM recently went big by buying PXD.  Later, LITE announced it was doubling its cloud computing infrastructure by purchasing Cloud Light for $750 million.  At the same time, ON announced it is laying off 900 workers due to an expected sluggish Q4, based on an expected slowing in electric vehicle demand.  In Pharmacy news, workers at CVS and WBA began a 3-day walkout Monday demanding improved working conditions and more staff at the stores.  (Essentially, the claim is that pharmacy companies are forcing pharmacists to do the work of two or more people, including delivering vaccine shots and answering health insurance questions in addition to their normal prescription filling duties.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, Reuters reported Monday that more than 14 progressive non-profit groups are pressing the US Dept. of Justice to step back from the “free pass” they perceive the Biden DOJ having given corporate offenders.  (The Biden DOJ has implemented a “safe harbor” policy to entice corporate disclosure of their misconduct.)  At the same time, the US Dept. of Transportation said a civil fine (or an unspecified amount) of LUV is warranted related to the December 2022 meltdown that caused 16,700 flight cancellations, causing major disruption to two million passengers.  Later, EU antitrust regulators granted approval for HTHIY (Hitachi) to buy Thales’ GTS Railway Signaling unit for $1.80 billion. Meanwhile, CP was served a “transfer pricing order” by the Indian Income Tax Authority.  Essentially, the order accuses CP of avoiding Indian taxes by transferring money across borders between CP divisions.  Later, two US Senators (one from each party) asked the US Dept. of Transportation and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to take action on “troubling reports” about deceptive and unfair airline frequent flyer loyalty programs.  Elsewhere, GOOGL CEO Pichai testified in the US antitrust lawsuit Monday.  He acknowledged the importance to the company of making its search engine the default for phones, browsers, and laptops.  Under cross-examination, Pichai granted that the company spends billions of dollars each year for such deals and noted that GOOGL “definitely sees value” from that default status program. 

After the close, AGNC, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, CLW, CWK, CVI, MATX, MPWR, PEAK, PINS, PSA, PSMT, QGEN, SPG, THC, and WELL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, KMPR, NEXA, and VFC both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, RYI and VNO both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, CACC, FMC, LEG, and RIG missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMKR and VFC lowered their guidance.  At the same time, ANET, RYI, SPG, and WELL all raised their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the red side.  Hong Kong (-1.69%), South Korea (-1.41%), and Taiwan (-0.92%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, with the sole exception of Russia (-1.18%), we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.97%), DAX (+0.52%), and FTSE (+0.57%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  This came as Eurozone inflation dropped significantly in October to 2.9% (the lowest level in two years) and the Eurozone GDP declined 0.1% for Q3 (which was significantly better than forecast by economists).  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures point toward another positive start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.38% open, the SPY is implying a +0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.13% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.829% and Oil (WTI) is up about two-thirds of a percent to $82.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Q3 Employment Cost Index (8:30 a.m.), Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AGCO, ALLE, AME, AMGN, BUD, ARES, BCC, BP, CCJ, CAT, CEIX, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, BEN, GEHC, GVA, GPK, GPRE, HNI, HUBB, INCY, NSP, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, PFE, PEG, ST, SIRI, SFM, STLA, SYY, BLD, UFPI, WEC, XYL, and ZBRA.  Then, after the close, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, EQH, BXC, CZR, CGAU, CHK, ENLC, EQR, FSLR, HUN, HY, JBSS, LBTYA, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MCY, MTH, OI, OKE, SON, TX, UNM, VOYA, and YUMC report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P US Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and the Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, YUM, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.  On Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Monday that half of the S&P 500 have now reported earnings. So far, 77% of those have beaten expectations. Of those that have reported, Consumer Discretionary companies have been the biggest surprise, beating earnings expectations by an average 19% according to Refinitiv earnings data.  Later, the US Treasury Dept. said it expects to borrow $776 billion in Q4, down $76 billion from its July estimate citing increased revenue estimates (a strong economy plus taxes deferred from CA and HI due to disasters means more tax revenue).  In potentially related news, GS raised its long-term US economic growth estimates, saying that AI will boost productivity in the US more than it had previously expected.  Elsewhere, as expected, after the close, AAPL announced three versions of its new M3 chip (based on the ARM architecture and TSM 3nm production process), a new iMac, and a new MacBook Pro at its “Scary Fast” product launch.  (Macs accounted for only 11% of AAPL sales in 2022.) Finally, social media platform X (formerly Twitter) is now worth just 43% of what Elon Musk paid for it one year ago. While Musk paid $44 billion, stock awards just made to employees value the company at $19 billion.

In international news, Israeli PM Netanyahu again rejected growing calls for a cease-fire in their war against Hamas.  At the same time, Chinese factory activity contracted and the Chinese services sector failed to expand (as had been expected) in October.  This weaker-than-expected data is sure to lead to calls for more stimulus from Beijing.  In Japan, the BoJ held rates steady (the only Central Bank with a negative rate) but made a tweak to permissible government bond yields.  The BoJ claims this will give them more flexibility in shaping long-term yields.  (The Yen fell lower on this news.)

So far this morning, ALLE, AMGN, BCC, CAT, FNMA, GEHC, GPN, GVA, GPRE, IGT, LDOS, MPC, PFE, ST, BLD, and XYL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AME, BUD, ETN, GPK, INCY, LGIH, MSCI, SIRI, and WEC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, MPLX, NBIX, and ZBRA all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ARES, BP, CEIX, EPD, and JBLU missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are again in control in the premarket this morning. The SPY and QQQ opened the early session lower, but have put in brong white-bodied candles to take price above the Monday close. Meanwhile, DIA opened the early session higher and ran up above its T-line (8ema) where the bears are pushing back to have a retest of that level. DIA does have the only significant wick (upper) of the three so far this morning. With that said, keep in mind at least two of the three remain below their T-line and also down 7%-9% from the summer highs. So, the Bears remain in control of the trend. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are extended from their T-line and while the T2122 indicator is still in its oversold territory, it is barely in that range. So, we may get additional relief from being oversold but the need is not nearly as bad as it was Monday morning.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened higher on Friday, gapping up 0.39% in the SPY, opening dead flat in the DIA, and gapping up 0.87% in the QQQ.  At that point, the DIA led the move lower, followed by an indecisive SPY, and finally a QQQ that was bullish the first two hours.  By 11:30 a.m. all three were selling in a jagged fashion the rest of the day. This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and DIA only had lower wicks (based on the last wave being up the final 15 minutes.  However, the QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top Inside Day candle.  All three remain well below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on just above-average volume in the SPY and above-average volume in the QQQ and DIA.

On the day, eight of 10 sectors were red with Basic Material (+0.11%) and Technology (+0.07%) being the only ones to stay green while Healthcare (-1.89%) and Utilities (-1.83%) led the way lower.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.45%, the DIA lost a whopping 1.11% (led that way by CVX -6.72%), and QQQ gained 0.48%.  VXX gained 3.32% to close at 27.08 and T2122 fell back into the low end of the oversold territory at 6.22.  10-year bond yields ended the day unchanged at 4.845% while Oil (WTI) rose 2.34% to close at $85.16 per barrel on Middle East war fears.  

The major economic news reported Friday included the September PCE Price Index (year-on-year) of +3.4%, which was in line with the forecast and the August reading.  On a month-on-month basis, this was +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but in line with the August reading of +0.4%).  Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment came in better than expected at 63.8 (versus a forecast of 63.0 but down from the September reading of 68.1).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations came in lower than predicted at 59.3 (compared to a forecast of 60.7 and the September value of 66.0).  Meanwhile, the Michigan 1-year Inflation Expectation was very high at 4.2% (compared to a forecast of 3.8% and a September reading of 3.2%).  Further out, the Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectation was in line with predictions at 3.0% (versus a forecast of 3.0% but up from the September value of 2.8%).

In Autoworker contract talks and strike news, following Wednesday’s settlement with F, the UAW held nearly non-stop negotiation sessions with STLA and GM on Thursday and Friday.  Both the CEO of GM and the President of the UAW participated in the round on Friday.  As of Friday evening, a deal was said to be close, as both companies agreed to the same 25% pay increase that F agreed to earlier but talks continued.  At the same time, the union at F began returning to work Friday, ending the 6-week strike.  (As a side note, F announced Friday that the strike had cost the company $1.3 billion.) Then on Saturday evening, the UAW announced it had reached a tentative deal to end the strike against STLA.  (Reportedly, UAW President Fain had turned his focus to GM after focusing more on STLA on Friday.)  However, by Saturday evening, GM was still refusing on issues F and STLA agreed.  So, the UAW increased the strike by having 4,000 workers walk off the job at GM’s Spring Hill TN assembly plant (GM’s largest US plant).  Early today, the Canadian Autoworker Union (Unifor) called a strike of more than 8.200 workers against STLA up North.  (Unifor already reached deals with F and then after a 12-hour strike with GM. In last-minute news, STLA also settled with Unifor after about 12 hours of that strike.)  In tangentially related news, back in the US, F said it was postponing a $12 billion investment in EV manufacturing expansions. GM had also delayed the opening of a second EV truck plant and canceled a joint project between itself and HMC aimed at making sub-$30k EVs for the global market.

In stock news, GM announced it had decided to suspend operations of all its Cruise driverless robotaxis amid safety concerns.  At the same time, UPS announced it is buying the “Happy Returns” unit from PYPL.  UPS said the purchase of Happy Returns and a previously announced deal to buy MNX Global Logistics will total more than $1 billion.  Later, Reuters reported that merger negotiations between WDC and Japan’s Kioxia have stalled.  At the same time, DUK announced it would build an end-to-end “Green Hydrogen” energy plant in FL.  The plant will split water into hydrogen and oxygen using solar power to generate the electricity needed and is expected to be operational in 2024.  Elsewhere, JPM announced that CEO Dimon will be selling 1 million of his 9.6 million shares of JPM in a strategic diversification move.  Later VLKAF (Volkswagen) said it is cutting 2,000 jobs and has pushed back the release of its Porsche Macan EV until 2024.  After the close, BA announced it is assessing a claim made by a cybercrime gang (Lockbit) that the group had “a tremendous amount” of sensitive BA data and would dump the data to the public if the company did not pay a ransom by Nov. 2.  Then on Friday evening, GOOGL announced it is investing $2 billion in Anthropic (a competitor to MSFT-backed OpenAI) to further its presence in the AI market.

In stock government, legal, and regulatory news, On Friday, GOOGL announced its CEO would testify today in the US antitrust case against the tech giant.  Later, ABBV said it is taking a $2.1 billion charge related to and ahead of its negotiations with Medicare over its leukemia drug.  Elsewhere, NSC announced it has begun installing AI-based safety inspection portals at a dozen locations on its tracks.  The portals will use high-speed cameras and AI software to do safety inspections while trains keep moving.  This comes in response to EPA and FRA pressure following the railroad’s Feb. derailment and mass chemical spill in East Palestine OH.  Later, Reuters reported that the Argentine government had filed a motion with a US District judge asking that the judge stay the enforcement of a $16.1 billion judgment over the nationalization of a then minority state-owned oil company (YPF).  The judgment was due to REPYY, which had a 51% stake in the company.  By mid-afternoon, ANF was sued for ignoring a sex-trafficking ring run by former CEO Mike Jeffries, who allegedly lured young men in using the promise of becoming models for the ANF brand.  After the close Friday, JNJ announced that the Dept. of Justice has sought documents and information related to the drugmaker’s eye surgery products in connection with a DOJ civil (not criminal) investigation. Finally, early today President Biden announced a new executive order aimed at putting some guardrails on AI. The order calls for the Commerce Dept. to create safety and security standards covering AI. The order also aimed at protecting consumer data, watermarking AI-created content, and providing guidance to landlords and federal contractors to avoid unfair discrimination based on AI model training deficiencies.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Shenzhen (+1.61%) was far and away the leader for the bulls while Japan (-0.95%) paced the four losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are nearly green across the board at midday.  Only Portugal (-0.07%) is in the red as the CAC (+0.71%), DAX (+0.58%), and FTSE (+0.76%) lead that region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the open.  The DIA implies a +0.58% open, the SPY is implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.77% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are at 4.886% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.37% to $84.37 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled before the open include ACDVF, BGC, CHKP, CAN, DQ, HSBC, JKS, MCD, ON, RVTY, SOFI, WDC, and XPO.  Then, after the close, AMKR, ACGL, ANET, CACC, CWK, CVI, FMC, PEAK, KMPR, LEG, MATX, MPWR, NEXA, PINS, PSA, QGEN, RYI, SPG, THC, RIG, VFC, and WELL report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Q3 Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, ADP Oct. Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P US Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Employment, ISM Oct. Mfg. PMI, ISM Oct. Mfg. Price Index, Sept. JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, and the Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, Preliminary Q3 Unit Labor Costs, Sept. Factory Orders, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Participation Rate, Oct. Unemployment Rate, Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AGCO, ALLE, AME, AMGN, BUD, ARES, BCC, BP, CCJ, CAT, CEIX, DORM, ETN, ECL, EPD, BEN, GEHC, GVA, GPK, GPRE, HNI, HUBB, INCY, NSP, IGT, JBLU, LDOS, LGIH, MPC, MPLX, MSCI, PFE, PEG, ST, SIRI, SFM, STLA, SYY, BLD, UFPI, WEC, XYL, and ZBRA, AMD, AMCR, AIZ, EQH, BXC, CZR, CGAU, CHK, ENLC, EQR, FSLR, HUN, HY, JBSS, LBTYA, LFUS, LUMN, MTCH, MCY, MTH, OI, OKE, SON, TX, UNM, VOYA, and YUMC.  Then Wednesday, ALIT, APO, AXTA, BLCO, EAT, BIP, BLDR, CDW, CHEF, CLH, CVS, DRVN, DTE, DNB, DD, ETR, ESAB, EL, FTDR, FYBR, GRMN, HUM, IDXX, IQV, JHG, KMT, KHC, LPX, MLM, NMRK, NI, NCLH, PSN, QUAD, SGEN, SITE, SPR, SUN, SPWR, TEL, TRI, TKR, TT, TRMB, TTMI, UTHR, VRSK, W, YUM, AFL, ABNB, ALB, ALL, ATUS, AFG, AIG, AWK, APA, ACA, CAR, AVT, AXS, BALY, BMRN, BKH, BXP, BFAM, BWXT, CHRW, CRC, CPE, CWH, CF, CAKE, CLX, COKE, CTSH, CW, DASH, DXC, EIX, EA, ET, NVST, ETSY, EXAS, EXEL, GFL, THG, HLF, HST, IR, LNC, MTW, MRO, VAC, MCK, MELI, MET, MKSI, MOD, MDLZ, MUSA, NOG, NUS, NTR, PYPL, CNXN, PRU, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, QDEL, RRX, RNR, REZI, ROKU, SIGI, SCI, SBGI, SEDG, SUM, RUN, SMCI, TS, TYL, VSTO, WTS, WERN, WES, WMB, WSC, and Z report.  On Thursday we hear from GOLF, ADT, WMS, ATI, ALGT, AMR, AEP, APG, APTV, ARW, AVNT, BALL, GOLD, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDC, BWA, BR, CNQ, FUN, CVE, LNG, CI, CIGI, COP, COR, CPG, CROX, CMI, DLX, XRAY, DUK, LLY, ENTG, NVRI, EPAM, EXC, RACE, FOXA, GIL, DINO, HWM, HII, H, NSIT, ICE, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JLL, KBR, KTB, LAMR, DRS, MKL, MAR, MDU, MRNA, TAP, MUR, NVO, DNOW, NRG, OGE, OGN, PLTR, PZZA, PARA, PH, PBF, MD, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PPL, PRMW, PWR, RCM, REGN, ROK, SPGI, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SHOP, SO, STGW, TRGP, TFX, TPX, TRN, UPBD, VNT, WEN, WCC, WLK, ZTS, ACHC, ACCO, AES, AGL, ASTL, LNT, COLD, AMN, AAPL, TEAM, BECN, SQ, BKNG, CVNA, CVCO, COIN, CODI, ED, BAP, DKNG, DBX, EVH, EXPI, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, ACFI, LYV, MTZ, MCHP, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PBA, PXD, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SBAC, SEM, SWKS, SM, SWN, SBUX, SYK, and VTR.  Finally, on Friday, AMCXM AXL, BSAC, BLMN, BBU, BEPC, BEP, CAH, CBOE, CHD, CNK, CRBG, D, ENB, EOG, FLR, FWONK, FWONA, IT, GTES, IEP, KOP, LSXMK, LSXMA, MGA, OMI, PAA, PAGP, PRVA, QRTEA, QSR, SRE, TDS, TIXT, USM, WPC, and TSE report.

In interesting real estate news from North of the border, Canadian PM Trudeau has been under pressure about the tight housing market in Canada.  As a result, Trudeau introduced measures to tighten the criteria colleges apply to their international students starting in the fall of 2024.  Colleges that meet the higher criteria will be given priority in the processing of student visas requested by their international students.  In effect, the idea is to reduce the number of international students in Canada, thereby freeing up housing for native Canadians.

In miscellaneous news, Israel expanded its ground invasion of Gaza on Friday and the expansion of that attack continued Saturday and Sunday.  Meanwhile, on an interesting side note, since 1950, October 28 has statistically been the best single day of the year in terms of bullish market gains.  So, of course, October 28 came on a Saturday this year. (For the record, the worst market day of the year is statistically Oct 19…just nine days prior to the best day.)  Elsewhere, tonight (8 p.m. Eastern) Bloomberg reports AAPL will unveil eight M3 CPUs (built on TSM’s 3nm process fab) with eight, 12, or 16 processing cores (both efficiency and performance cores) and 10, 18, or 40 graphics processing cores.  They will also launch a 24-inch iMac using the new M3 chips and a new MacBook Pro.

So far this morning, ACDVF, BGC, CHKP, CAN, JKS, L, MCD, SOFI, and XPO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HSBC missed on revenue while beating massively on earnings (+194% quarter-on-quarter).  However, DQ and RVTY missed on both the top and bottom lines.  (ON and WDC report at 8 a.m.)  It is worth noting that SOFI raised its forward guidance.  In addition to the HSBC growth, JKS had 59% earnings growth on just 4% revenue growth.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control in the premarkets this morning. All three major index ETFs gapped higher at the open of the early session with the large-cap indices printing small, white-bodied candles. However, the QQQ gapped higher and the Bulls have continued to run, giving us a large, white-bodied candle with very small wicks this morning. With that said, keep in mind that all three remain well below their T-line (8ema) and also down 9%-10% from the summer highs. Once again, we have no really major economic news today and with the Fed and Q3 Payrolls later in the week, it would not be surprising for markets to drift while they wait on more news. In terms of that extension, all three major index ETFs are back a bit extended down below their T-line (8ema). The T2122 indicator is also in the lower end of its oversold territory. So a pause or relief rally may well be in order. Just remember that the market can remain extended longer than we can stay solvent betting that it has to turn. Finally, the only thing we can say for sure is the Bears maintain control of the trend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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