NOTE:  This will be the last daily blog for the foreseeable future

The Bears roared again Thursday at more indecision around the Trump tariffs (more temporary waivers on “some” Mexican products were announced) roiled markets.  SPY gapped down 1.30%, DIA gapped down 1.01%, and QQQ gapped down 1.66%.  After that open, all three major index ETFs rallied for 90 minutes, recovering about half of the gap.  However, by 11:30 a.m. the Bulls had left the building and the Bears drove all three sharply lower until 1 p.m. when all three started chopping sideways with a modest bearish trend the rest of the day.  This gave us gap-down, black-body candles in all three.  SPY gave us a long-wick, black Spinning Top, DIA gave us a long-legged, black Doji, and QQQ gave us large, black-body candle with large (mostly upper) wicks.  All three obviously remain below their T-line (8ema) and did not get close to making a retest from below.  QQQ also crossed down through its 200sma.  This all happened on slightly-above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as just-below-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red as Technology (-3.07%) and Utilities (-2.81%) were well out front leading the pack lower.  On the other side, Communication Services (+1.18%) was BY FAR the strongest and only green sector. At the same time, SPY lost 1.78%, DIA lost 1.06%, and QQQ lost 2.75%. In terms of volatility, the VXX spiked 10.90% to close at 53.73.  Meanwhile, T2122 dropped back into the lower half of its oversold range, closing at 8.21.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields climbed to 4.292% (which was actually significantly lower that early in the day) and Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat, closing at $66.26 per barrel.  

So, Thursday was a case of fatigue over Trump’s inconsistent, bullying way of using trade wars to get his way.  The on-off-on-off policy over tariffs against Canada and Mexico as well as uneven application based on political lobbying power has simply worn out the market.  QQQ closed near correction territory, down 9.68% from its all-time high (printed just 11 trading days ago).  Meanwhile, SPY is down 6.59% and DIA is off 5.53% from their recent highs. 

The major economic news on Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came lower than expected at 221k (compared to a 234k forecast and the prior week’s 242k reading).  For ongoing claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 1,897k (versus the 1,880k forecast but well up from the prior week 1,855k value).  At the same time, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity was down but better than anticipated at +1.5% (compared to the +1.2% forecast but down from Q3’s +2.2% number). On the price side, Q4 Unit Labor Costs were up but also better than predicted at +2.2% (versus a +3.0% forecast but well up from Q3’s +0.8% reading).  At the same time, the Jan. Trade Balance was slightly worse than anticipated at -$131.40 (versus a -$128.40 billion forecast and December’s -$98.1 billion value).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet came in $9 billion lower than the previous week at $6.757 trillion.)

In Fed news, on Thursday, Philly Fed President Harker said that the economy is in good shape now, but warning signs are starting to show.  Harker said, “Unemployment is still low, still getting growth, but there are threats to this. We’re starting to see that confidence is starting to wane on both the consumer and business fronts.” Related to inflation, Harker said, “I’m worried that right now that (2024 declines) is at risk, that the decline is at risk.”  On the topic of what the Fed should do with interest rates, he went on to say “I’m an avowed pragmatist when it comes to policy … you don’t go very fast in either direction.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller said he is unlikely to support a rate cut in March.  Waller told the Wall Street Journal, “I want to see what happens with the February inflation data. … Want to see a little bit more with what happens with tariff policies.”  However, he went on to say that it may be appropriate to cut as some future FOMC meeting.

After the close, AVGO and GAP reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line. Meanwhile, COO and LOMA missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings. On the other side, COST and HPE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only Thailand (+1.05%) and India (+0.03%) managing to stay green.  Meanwhile, Japan (-2.17%) and Australia (-1.81%) were way out front leading the 10 red exchanges.  In Europe we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with just three of 14 bourses in the green.  The CAC (-1.15%), DAX (-1.83%), and FTSE (-0.50%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start to the day just on the green side of flat.  DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.14% open, and QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are down to 4.255% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.34% to $67.25 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, and the Feb. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), Fed. Monetary Policy Report (11 a.m.), and Jan. Consumer Credit (3 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Bowman (10:15 a.m.), Williams (11:45 a.m.), and Fed Chair Powell (12:30 p.m.).  Trump is also expected to announce the elimination of the Dept. of Education at 3:30 p.m. according to the Wall Street Journal.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF.  There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, ADV, AQN, and GCO have all reported MISSES on both the revenue and earnings lines.

With that background, the market are basically undecided ahead of data.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket a bit higher, ran up and then reversed to retreat.  All three now have printed black candles with upper wicks and are sitting at the bottom of their early session candle, just above the Thursday close.  All three are still well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend remains bearish.  At the same time, the mid-term trend remains a bearish, choppy mess.  Meanwhile, the long-term trend remains bullish, but is being severely tested.  In terms of extension, SPY and especially QQQ are now over-stretched to the downside but DIA remains within its normal range of the T-line.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back down in the lower half of its mid-range.  So, once again, the Bulls clearly have a more rope to work with today, but the Bears still have the momentum behind them.  In terms of the Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in the red in the premarket.  TSLA (-1.92%) is well out in front leading the pack lower while NVDA (+0.66%) is by far the strongest big dog.  As far as liquidity goes, TSLA leads NVDA slightly which itself has traded nine times as much dollar-volume as the next closest ticker in the premarket.  (However, we should again note it is a very light premarket volume overall ahead of data.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a modest rebound Wednesday.  SPY opened down 0.04%, DIA opened down 0.10%, and QQQ opened up 0.09%.  From there, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways until 11 a.m.  From there, all three sold off for an hour, then rallied until 3:15 p.m. before pulling back slightly the last 45 minutes.  The action gave us Bullish Engulfing candles with in the SPY and DIA as well as a white-bodied candle with more wick than body (but too large a body to be a Spinning Top).  All three remain below their T-line (8ema) and did not get close to making a retest from below.  This all happened on above-average volume in the SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in the DIA.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green as Basic Materials (+3.42%) was well out front (by 1.30%) leading the gainers higher.  On the other side, Energy (-0.53%) and Utilities (-0.20%) lagged behind and were the only sectors in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.07%, DIA gained 1.15%, and QQQ gained 1.30%.  In terms of volatility, VXX fell 4.23% to close at 48.45.  Meanwhile, T2122 popped up out of its oversold territory to the bottom of its mid-range to 24.30. On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields climbed to 4.278% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 2.75% to close at $66.38 per barrel.

So, Wednesday was a day when it seemed the Administration manipulated (or at the very least drove) markets a bit.  The market news early was from Commerce Sec. Lutnick who told Bloomberg that all the recent bad economic data was “Biden Data.”  He also promised a White House announcement of a deal on end tariffs by the afternoon. That seemed to lead to the mid-day rally.  There were also other press leaks about Trump being open to tariff exemptions for the Auto industry (and perhaps others).  However, after the close, Trump told the press Canada’s effort to appease him was “not good enough,” but he was open to some exemptions.  He went on to announced a one-month exemption for the big three automakers.

The major economic news on Wednesday included Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in far below expectations at +77k (compared to a +141k forecast and dramatically lower than January’s +186k number).  Later, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, was above expectation at 51.0 (versus a 49.7 forecast, but down from January’s 52.9 reading).  For the combined number, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI was above expectation at 51.6 (compared to a 50.4 forecast but down from January’s 52.7 value).  Later, Jan. Factory Orders, were up as anticipated to +1.7% (in-line with the +1.7% forecast and better than December’s -0.6% reading).  At the same time, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was up to 53.9 (compared to January’s 52.3 value).  For the headline, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI was also up to 53.5 (versus a 52.5 forecast and the 52.8 number in January).  In terms of cost, ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index was up sharply to 62.6 (compared to a 60.0 forecast and the 60.4 January reading).  Later, EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a large unexpected build of 3.614 million barrels (versus a +0.600-million-barrel forecast and the prior week drawdown of 2.332 million barrels). 

In Fed news, on Wednesday, the Fed Beige Book reported that eight of the 12 Fed districts saw flat or slightly negative growth in February.  The report mentioned Trump’s tariffs 50 times as essentially every district cited them as reasons for uncertainty among the businesses in their area.  Some quotes from the report were Kansas City reporting “the outlook among community service organizations was reportedly much less favorable.”  Meanwhile, a St. Louis district food-service distributor said “consumers were buying less, buying less often, and trading down.”  In the Boston region, restaurant sales were down, but some contacts reported this may be due to “dry January.”  Several districts reported that inflation worries continue with an uptick in the rate of price increases among district businesses.  However, several districts also said wage increase pressures were easing.

After the close, MRVL, MDB, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, BBAR beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Hong Kong (+3.29%) was by far the biggest gainer followed by Shenzhen (+1.77%).  On the downside, Thailand (-1.44%) was far-and-away the biggest loser.  In Europe, bourses are mixed but lean toward the red side.  The CAC (-0.44%), DAX (+0.50%), and FTSE (-0.86%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:20 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap down to start the morning.  DIA implies a -0.85% open, the SPY is implying a -1.07% open, and QQQQ implies a -1.32% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields have spiked back up to 4.317% and Oil (WTI) is up three-quarters of a percent to $66.80 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, and Jan. Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Harker (8:45 a.m.) and Governor Waller (3:30 p.m.).  Fed member Bostic also speaks at 7 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, and VG.  Then after the close, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, BTSG and JD reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BJ, BURL, DDL, M, and VG missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, CNQ beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, GMS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market looks bearish in the early premarket.  All three major index ETFs gapped lower to open the early session and have printed black-body candles since that point.  (It is worth noting that SPY and DIA have printed more indecisive, black Spinning Top, Bear Harami type candles so far in the premarket.) All three are well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess resolving bearishly.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish, but is being tested.  In terms of extension, SPY and QQQ are not over-stretched but are pushing that level of being oversold in the early session.  DIA remains within its normal range of the T-line.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now back out of its oversold territory (barely) and sits in the lower end of its mid-range. So, the Bulls clearly have a more rope to work with today, but the Bears still have the momentum behind them.  In terms of the Big Dogs, all 10 are in the red in the premarket.  NVDA (-2.59%) and TSLA (-2.31%) are well out front leading the pack lower while AAPL (-0.48%) is holding up best.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads TSLA by 35% which itself has traded six times as much dollar-volume as the next closest ticker in the premarket.  (However, we should note it is a very light premarket volume overall.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday opened with gaps lower across all the major index ETFs.  SPY gapped down 0.74%, DIA gapped down 0.60%, and QQQ gapped down 0.63%. From there, all three major averages followed through to the downside with SPY and QQQ selling off sharply until 10:30 a.m.  DIA sold off more slowly but the downside continued until 11:30 a.m. Once they reached those points, all three began a slower rally that lasted until 3:25 p.m. However, then all three sold off sharply again the rest of the day. This action gave us gap-down, indecisive candles across the major index ETFs.  SPY printed a black-bodied, long-legged Spinning Top, QQQ printed a white-bodied, long-legged Spinning Top, and DIA printed a larger-body, black Spinning Top candle.  This happened on heavier-than-average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in DIA.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red as Financial Services (-2.89%) led the others lower by mor (out front by more than one percent).  On the other side, the Technology (+0.03%) sector was the only one to hold onto the green.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.18%, DIA lost 1.47%, and QQQ lost 0.32%.  Meanwhile, VXX rose another 2.64% to close at 50.59 and T2122 dropped all the way back up to bottom of its oversold territory at 1.83. On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields climbed to 4.225% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.12% to close at $68.29 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was another rough day for markets as Trump abandoned a democracy (whose security the US had guaranteed) in favor of pleasing his autocrat friend Putin whom Trump has been preemptively and unilaterally making concessions before negotiations and Trump’s trade war tariffs on close allies also took effect.

The major economic news on Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in higher than expected at 52.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.6 and January’s 51.2 value).  Later, January Construction Spending was down notably to -0.2% (versus a -0.1% forecast but well down from December’s +0.5% reading).  At the same time, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI was lower than anticipated at 50.3 (compared to a 50.6 forecast and January’s 50.9 number).  On the jobs side, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment was down sharply to 47.6 (versus January’s 50.3 value).  On the cost side, the Feb. ISM Mfg. Price Index what SHARPLY higher at 62.4 (compared to a forecast of 56.2 and the January 54.9 reading). 

In response, Canada announced 25% retaliatory tariffs on US goods, China declared 15% tariffs on US grain and lumber, and Mexico said it will announce its own retaliatory tariff package against the US next weekend.)  Trump also threatened another 25% of tariffs on Canada and insulted the Canadian PM when the Canadian retaliatory tariffs were announced.)   Later in the day, the market reversal may well have been due to Commerce Sec. Lutnick saying that “Trump will probably announce a tariff deal with Canada and Mexico as soon as Wednesday.”  Still, Trump wanted his headlines and needed unannounced items so he could make a news splash at his Congressional (GOP) “non State of the Union” speech last night.

The major economic news on Tuesday was limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, which came in with a larger than expected inventory drawdown of 1.455 million barrels (compared to a forecasted -0.300 million barrels and the prior week’s 0.640-million-barrel draw).

In Fed news, on NY Fed President Williams spoke to a Bloomberg event.  Williams indicated he expects the Trump tariffs to cause inflation, saying “My view is, based on what we know today … I do factor in some effects from tariffs now on inflation, on prices, because I think we will see some of those effects later this year.”  However, he urged caution in jumping to conclusions about how much inflation or how fast. Williams said, “there’s a lot of uncertainty: We don’t know how long the tariffs will apply. We don’t know what other countries may do in response to this.”  He went on to say that some industries will see the inflation impacts almost immediately, while others may not feel the effect for months.  Related to future fed rate cuts, Williams said “it’s really hard to know” if there will be any further cuts this year due to all the uncertainty.  However, he did say, “I think the current place for policy is good. I don’t see any need to change it right away.”

After the close, CRWD, CTOS, EC, FLUT, and INGM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ROST missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Only Australian (-0.70%) was in the red while Hong Kong (+2.84%) and Thailand (+2.49%) were far out front leading the 11 gaining exchanges.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The DAX (+3.19%) spiked and led Europe higher as the coalition parties seeking to form the new German government agreed on a $530 billion infrastructure fund as well as overhaul of German borrowing rules.  (This was a direct response to Trump abandoning Ukraine and aligning himself with Putin.)  The CAC (+2.06%) and lagging FTSE (+0.32%) filled out the leaders taking Europe higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures point to modestly higher open.  The DIA implies a +0.27% open, SPY is implying at +0.36% open, and QQQ implies a +0.54% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are back up to 4.236% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.74% to $67.07 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday, we get Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan. Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ANF, BF.B, CPB, FL, REVG, and THO. Then after the close, BBAR, MRVL, MDB, SOBO, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Jan. Trade Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.  Finally, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, VG, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA.  Finally, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, ANF and REVG have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CPB and FL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, THO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, the market looks indecisive after a modest gap higher to start the premarket.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but have printed large-wick, black-bodied Spinning Top candles since that point indicating indecision that leans bearish.  All three are well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess resolving bearishly.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish, but tested.  In terms of extension, with the premarket moves higher, none of the three are too far stretched below their T-line (although QQQ is still close to that mark).  However, the T2122 indicator is now buried deep at the bottom of its oversold territory.  So, the Bulls clearly have a little more slack to work with today, but the Bears have the momentum behind them.  In terms of the Big Dogs, all 10 are in the green in the premarket.  TSLA (+1.60%) and NVDA (+1.57%) are well out front leading the pack higher while NFLX (+0.26%) and AAPL (+0.29%) lag. As far as liquidity goes, TSLA and NVDA are neck-and-neck and about 12 times ahead of the next closest ticker in terms of dollar-volume traded in the premarket.  (However, we should note it is a very light premarket volume overall.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher on Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, DIA gapped up 0.27%, and QQQ gapped up 0.61%.  However, this was a bit of a Bull trap as SPY and QQQ sold off sharply until just after 10 a.m, chopped sideways along the prior close, and then sold off sharply again at 12:45p.m. That selloff lasted an hour before chopping sideways until 2:45 p.m. when the last and strongest flush of the day took place.  Only a short covering rally the last 15 minutes kept us from going out on the lows.  For its part, after a gap higher, DIA began a modest, undulating selloff that lasted until 2:45 p.m. when a strong selloff took us to the lows over the course of an hour.  Again, only a short-covering rally the last 15 minutes kept us from going out on the lows.  All three major index ETFs printed large, Bearish Engulfing candles with SPY and QQQ retesting and failing their T-line (8ema) and DIA crossing back below its own T-line.  SPY and QQQ also both printed Oreo Cookie (Bear Stick Sandwich) candles. This all happened on just-above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red as Energy (-2.10%) and Technology (-2.86%) led the way lower.  On the other side, Communication Services (+0.56%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.20%) held up far better than the rest and were the only two sectors in the green.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.74%, DIA lost 1.43%, and QQQ lost 2.14%.  Meanwhile, VXX spiked 7.55% to close at 49.29 and T2122 dropped all the way back up to top edge of its oversold territory at 50.66.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields dropped to 4.165% and Oil (WTI) dropped 1.96% to close at $68.39 per barrel.  So, Monday was a rough day after the open.  Perhaps this was due to info on NVDA exports to Singapore being rerouted to China and the potential dire impact that theoretically could have on the market leader. (Three men were arrested in Singapore for rerouting NVDA shipments to China. In addition, 20% of NVDA profits in 2024 came from sales shipped to Singapore, while less than 2% of customers have locations in Singapore. Thus, raising the specter of massive sanction gaming that could possibly be stopped, killing NVDA sales.)  However, the strongest selloff of the day came when Trump crushed hopes that Canadian and Mexican sanctions would be avoided when he flat out stated they will take effect Tuesday, saying there is “no room for delay.”

The major economic news on Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in higher than expected at 52.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.6 and January’s 51.2 value).  Later, January Construction Spending was down notably to -0.2% (versus a -0.1% forecast but well down from December’s +0.5% reading).  At the same time, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI was lower than anticipated at 50.3 (compared to a 50.6 forecast and January’s 50.9 number).  On the jobs side, Feb. ISM Mfg. Employment was down sharply to 47.6 (versus January’s 50.3 value).  On the cost side, the Feb. ISM Mfg. Price Index what SHARPLY higher at 62.4 (compared to a forecast of 56.2 and the January 54.9 reading). 

In Fed news, on Monday, St. Louis Fed President Musalem indicated that inflation is likely continuing to track toward the FOMC’s 2% target in the long-term.  However, there are big short-term inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.  Musalem said, “Near-term inflation expectations have risen substantially over the last few weeks, and that’s something I’m watching closely.”  He continued, “Businesses and households are clearly more sensitive to expectations of higher inflation. … That’s why the risks seem more skewed to the upside, but the baseline is for continued disinflation.” In terms of the strength of the economy, Musalem said, “The outlook for continued solid economic growth looks good, the labor market is healthy, and financial conditions are supportive. But recent data have been weaker than expected, especially consumer spending and housing market data, posing some downside risk to growth.”  He continued, “Recent anecdotal reports from business contacts are more mixed, and some measures indicate that business activity has slowed, suggesting increased caution at least among some firms.”  Musalem said he views the current Fed rate policy as “modestly restrictive” but stressed that the FOMC “needs to be patient” AND “More monetary policy work is needed to achieve price stability.”  Later, the Atlanta Fed released a report indicating the US economy will likely contract 2.8% in Q1. (That was nearly double the prior week’s -1.5% prediction from one week earlier.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Only Shenzhen (+0.28%) and Shanghai (+0.22%) remained in the green.  Meanwhile, Japan (-1.20%), Malaysia (-1.00%), and Thailand (-0.91%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.42%), DAX (-2.32%), and FTSE (-0.50%) are all strongly lower in early afternoon trade as Neville Trump sold out Ukraine (just as Czechoslovakia was sold out in 1938) going further to prove that US security guarantees are meaningless. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the day.  DIA implies a -0.25% open, the SPY is implying a -0.41% open, and QQQ implies a -0.42% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields fell to 4.134% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.35% to $67.44 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.). However, we do hear from Fed member Williams (2:20 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AZO, BBY, PSFE, SE, and TGT.  Then after the close, SQM, CRWD, CTOS, EC, FLUT, INGM, JWN, and ROST report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan. Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Jan. Trade Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.  Finally, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ANF, BF.B, CPB, FL, REVG, THO, BBAR, MRVL, MDB, SOBO, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS report.  On Thursday, we hear from BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, VG, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA.  Finally, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, BBY, ONON, and TGT have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, SE beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, AZO and PSFE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market looks to gap down at the open Tuesday.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but have reversed and printed strong black candles since then, now sitting not far from the early session lows.  All three are well below their T-line (8ema).  So, the short-term trend is clearly bearish.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess resolving bearishly.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish, but tested.  In terms of extension, with the premarket moves lower, QQQ is not stretched below its T-line with SPY not too far behind.  However, DIA is still relatively close to its 8ema.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator now sits at the upper edge of its oversold territory.  So, both sides have room to work, but the Bulls have a little more slack while the Bears have the momentum.  In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red in the premarket.  TSLA (-3.33%) is well out front leading the losers while AAPL (+0.02%) is barely hanging onto green and is the only positive Bid Dog.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA (-2.30%) leads TSLA by 50% with the next closest ticker having traded one-seventh as much dollar-volume as TSLA (and one-nineth as much as NVDA).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets opened basically flat before getting in.  SPY opened 0.09% higher, DIA opened 0.13% higher, and QQQ opened 0.08% lower.  From there, all three major index ETFs rallied until 11 a.m. when they chopped sideways until 12:30 p.m.  At that point, all three sold off sharply until 1:30 p.m.  Finally, about 2 p.m. a strong, market-wide rally took us to the close.  This action gave us large-body, white candles, which made the day seem stronger than it actually was.  DIA crossed back above its T-line (8ema) and 50sma while SPY printed a Bullish Harami candle.  This all happened on slightly above-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the green as Financial Services (+1.54%) and Utilities (+1.47%) led the gainers.  On the other side, Basic Materials (+0.34%) and Communications Services (+0.47%) lagged and were well behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 1.50%, DIA gained 1.42%, and QQQ gained 1.58%. Meanwhile, VXX fell 1.59% to close at 45.83 and T2122 popped all the way back up to the dead center of its mid-range at 50.66.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to 4.210% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.41% to close at $70.06 per barrel.  So, Friday was an indecisive day that ended up disguised as a strong bullish day in a downtrend.  The market didn’t like Trump and Vance’s ambush berating of Ukrainian President Zelensky in front of a room tightly packed with reporters, especially when the latter showed backbone and didn’t take the intended humiliation laying down. However, that wasn’t long-lived or perhaps it was month-end that led to the strong afternoon rally that took us out near the highs.  It’s worth noting that NVDA (+3.97%) and TSLA (+3.91%) on heavier-than-average volume from those big dogs.

The major economic news on Friday includes January Core PCE Prince Index (Month-on-Month), which was up a tick to +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecasted and the December +0.2% value).  On the annual basis, January Core PCE Prince Index (Year-on-Year) was DOWN to +2.6% (in-line with the +2.6% forecast but down sharply from December’s +2.9% reading).  On the headline number, the Jan. PCE Price Index (Month-on-Month) was flat at +0.3% (versus a +0.3% forecast and December number).  On the annual side, January PCE Price Index (Year-on-Year) was down a tick to +2.5% (compared to a +2.5% forecast but lower than December’s +2.6% value). At the same time, Jan. Goods Trade Balance was much worse than expected at -$153.26 billion (versus a -$116.90 billion forecast and December’s -$122.01 billion reading). On the spending front, Jan. Personal Spending was down sharply to -0.2% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and December’s +0.8% number).  Meanwhile, Jan. Retail Inventories were up sharply to +0.4% (versus December’s -0.1% reading).  Later, Chicago PMI was up strongly to 45.5 (versus a 40.5 forecast and January’s 39.5 value). 

In Fed news, on Friday, Cleveland Fed President Hammack said “baseline preference” is that the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet (continue Quantitative Tightening) while the FOMC figures out how all of Trump’s tariffs, immigration policy, scrapped and unenforced regulation, etc. impacts the economy.  In the meantime, she said the Fed can use temporary bond repurchases (repos) if needed “”to put more (liquidity) back in the system until you figure out.”  On the Fed Funds Rate policy, Hammack said, “I believe that monetary policy has the luxury of being patient as we assess the path forward. … This will likely mean holding the federal funds rate steady for some time.” 

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed with six exchanges in the red and six in the green.  South Korea (-3.39%) was by far the biggest mover and paced losses followed by Taiwan (-1.29%) and Thailand (-1.27%). Meanwhile, Japan (+1.70%) was far out front of the other gainers.  In Europe, with the exception of Portugal (-0.03%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.07%), DAX (+1.38%), and FTSE (+0.72%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the week.  DIA implies a +0.31% open, the SPY is implying a +0.50% open, and QQQ implies a +0.70% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are back up to 4.254% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $69.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes S&P Global Mfg. PMI (9:45 a.m.), Jan. Construction Spending, Fed. ISM Mfg. Employment, Feb. ISM Mfg. PMI, and Feb. ISM Mfg. Prices (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CRC, FTRE, NOMD, and SGRY.  Then after the close, MRC, NATL, and OKTA report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks are reported and we hear from Fed member Williams.  Then Wednesday, we get Feb. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Feb. S&P Global Services PMI, Feb. S&P Global Composite PMI, Jan. Factory Orders, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Prices, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Beige Book.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q4 Nonfarm Productivity, Q4 Unit Labor Costs, Jan. Trade Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Waller.  Finally, on Friday, we get Feb. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Private Nonfarm Payrolls, Feb. Participation Rate, Feb. Unemployment Rate, Fed. Monetary Policy Report, and Jan. Consumer Credit. We also hear from Fed members Bowman and Williams as well as Chair Powell.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AZO, BBY, PSFE, SE, TGT, SQM, CRWD, CTOS, EC, FLUT, INGM, JWN, and ROST.  Then Wednesday, ANF, BF.B, CPB, FL, REVG, THO, BBAR, MRVL, MDB, SOBO, VEEV, VSCO, and ZS report.  On Thursday, we hear from BJ, BTSG, BURL, CNQ, CBRL, GMS, JD, KR, M, PSNY, TTC, VG, AVGO, COST, GAP, HPE, and LOMA.  Finally, on Friday, ADV, AQN, GCO, and YPF report.

So far this morning, NOMD reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, FTRE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market looks to gap higher at the open Monday, but this time not in an indecisive way.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher and have printed strong, white-bodied, no-wick candles since that point.  SPY and DIA have crossed back above their T-line (8ema) while QQQ remains below but is headed in that direction.  So, the short-term trend is mixed.  Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish.  In terms of extension, with the premarket moves higher, none of the three is too far below their T-line.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator sits in the dead center of its mid-range.  So, both sides of the market have plenty of room to work today.  In terms of the Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in the green in the premarket.  INTC (+5.18%) is well out front of TSLA (+3.60%) with the rest far behind.  On the downside, NVDA (-0.27%) and AAPL (-0.11%) are the only Big Dogs in the red.  As far as liquidity goes, TSLA leads NVDA by 50% with the next closest ticker having traded one-seventh as much dollar-volume as NVDA (and one-nineth as much as TSLA).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, the broader index ETFs gapped up while DIA started essentially flat. SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA opened 0.08% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.42%. From there, all three major index ETFs followed-through to the upside until about 11 a.m.  At that point, all three sold off steadily until 2 p.m.  All three spent the last couple hours of the day bobbing around near the lows.  This action gave us black-bodied Spinning Top candles in SPY, DIA (largest body of the three), and QQQ. (It should be noted that DIA held the support level that has propped it up the prior three days.)  This happened on modestly below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the green as Technology (+0.95%) was well out in front of the rest of the gainers.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (-1.01%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.05%, DIA lost 0.40%, and QQQ gained 0.24%. Meanwhile, VXX fell 2.30% to close at 44.10 and T2122 fell back to the bottom of the mid-range, just outside of oversold territory at 20.98.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields plummeted again to 4.247% and Oil (WTI) dropped a quarter of a percent to close at $68.77 per barrel. So, Wednesday saw the results more-or-less determined by the opening.  After that, the market was indecisive but leaned slightly bearish.  It is worth noting that NVDA (+3.67%), META (+2.46%), and to a lesser extent INTC (+2.31%) accounted for Technology’s strength while TSLA (-3.96%) and to a lesser extent AAPL (-2.70%) were the anchors on the market…and in particular the DIA.

The major economic news on Wednesday was limited to January Building Permits, which came in a little low at 1.473 million (compares to a 1.483 million forecast and December’s 1.482 million value).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected drawdown of 2.332 million barrels (versus a +2.500-million-barrel forecast and last week’s 4.633-million-barrel inventory build).  At the same time, January New Home Sales were down sharply to 657k(compared to a 679k forecast and December’s 734k reading).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, the NY Fed released a new research paper the predicts a fresh jolt of inflation, based solely on Trump administration tariffs on Chinese imports.  In particular, the report spotlighted the administration’s announcement of those tariffs applying to “de minimis” (small value) shipments from China, which had been exempt from the first Trump administration tariffs.  (The study argued that was key to fighting inflation during 2017-2021 since many more small-scale importers avoided tariffs back then.)  The report said, “U.S. consumers could face larger consequences than meet the eye from the recent 10-percentage-point tariff increase if the de minimis exception is ended for China if Chinese sellers do not slash their profit margins by reducing their export prices.”  (The report went on to say it did not expect those margins to be slashed.)  Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told an audience that inflation is high, but we saw a lot of progress on that front in 2024.  (He is in favor of holding rates steady until Trump policy change chaos impact on the path of inflation is clearer.)

After the close, A, ARDT, CHE, EXE, DORM, HEI, HHH, VAC, NTNX, NVDA, PSTG, SNOW, SUI, SNPS, TKO, UHS, URBN, and WES all reported beats on both revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, APA, FRWD, KNTK, OVV, SRPT, and TDOC beat on revenue while they missed on the earnings line.  On the other side, CAPL, EBAY, GRBK, INVH, CRM, SBGI, and TALO missed on revenue while beating on earnings. However, AMED, ARKO, FE, GEF, MYRG, and PARA missed on both the top and bottom lines. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Taiwan (-1.49%) and Thailand (-1.25%) were by far the biggest movers in either direction in that region.  In Europe, with the lone exception of the FTSE (+0.34%) we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-0.32%) and DAX (-0.60%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning. DIA implies a +0.32% open, the SPY is implying a+0.67% open, and QQQ implies a +0.85% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are back up from overnight lows to 4.296% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.11% to $69.39 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Jan. Core Durable Goods Orders, Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 Core PCE Prices, Q4 GDP, and Q4 GDP Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 a.m.), January Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.) and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Vice Chair Barr (10 a.m.), Bowman (11:45 a.m.), and Harker (3:15 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ADT, GBTG, AMBP, ARGX, BBWI, BECN, CM, XRAY, DCI, SATS, ERJ, EDR, EFXT, EVRG, FMX, GEO, GTN, HGV, HRL, IBP, SJM, KOP, LSEA, LTH, TIGO, VYX, NXST, NCLH, PZZAA, PENN, PLKT, RY, FUN, STGW, TD, FTI, TGNA, TFX, VRN, VTRS, VST, and WBD.  Then after the close, ACHC, ALHC, AMRC, AHR, ACA, ASTH, ADSK, BE, CODI, DELL, SSP, EOG, ERIE, HPQ, ICFI, ICUI, IHRT, MTZ, MNST, MOS, NTAP, OPEN, PGRE, PBA, PRGO, RKT, SOLV, RUN, and TTEC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Jan. Core PCE Prince Index, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance. Jan. Personal Spending, Jan. Retail Inventories, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AES, AMR, AMRX, CLMT, GTLS, GLP, and OMI report.

So far this morning, ADT, AMBP, BBWI, BWLP, CM, ERJ, GTN, LTH, NCLH, PZZA, RY, and TD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, GOLF, SATS, EFXT, IBP, SJM, STWD, TGNA, and TFX missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, ARGX, ONC, EVRG, HGV, HRL, VYX, NXST, PLTK, and STGW beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BECN, XRAY, DCI, GEO, TIGO, PENN, FUN, VTRS, and WBD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market looks to gap higher but is also indecisive in the premarket.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but all three are also printing Spinning Top or Doji type candles since then.  The short-term trend remains bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess, seeming to resolve itself bearishly at this point.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish.  In terms of extension, with the premarket gaps higher, none of the three is too far below their T-line.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator sits just outside of its oversold territory.  So, while both sides of the market have room to work today, the Bears have the momentum while the Bulls have a little more room to move, if they can gain some momentum. In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green in the premarket.  NVDA (+3.03%) is way out in front leading the gainers followed by TSLA (+2.16%).  On the other side, AAPL (-0.49%) is the only Big Dog in the red.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads TSLA by a factor of two and the next closest ticker has traded one-seventh as much dollar-volume as TSLA (and one-14^th as much as NVDA).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened basically flat (on average) Tuesday.  SPY opened dead flat, DIA gapped up 0.21% and QQQ opened down 0.13%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs took 15 minutes to figure out what they wanted to do before proceeding to put in a sharp selloff that lasted until 10:30 a.m.  After that, they bobbed along the lows for an hour before starting a modest, jagged rally that lasted until 3:25 p.m. before selling back down the last half hour.  This action gave us black-bodied, Hammer-ish candles in the SPY and QQQ (the latter having a very big hammed head).  For its part, DIA printed a white Spinning Top candle that may have found support at the same level it had for the prior two days.  This happened on very heavy volume in QQQ and average volume in SPY and DIA.

On the day, half of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Technology (-1.46%) and Energy (-1.29%) were way out front leading the way lower. On the other side, Consumer Defensive (+91%) held up much better than the others and led the 5 green sectors up.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.48%, DIA managed to gain 0.38%, and QQQ lost 1.26%. Meanwhile, VXX gained almost one percent to close at 45.14 and T2122 climbed up out of its oversold territory into the bottom half of its mid-range, closing at 30.59.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields plummeted to 4.300% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.25%, closing at $69.12 per barrel. So, Tuesday saw a fourth straight lower close in both the SPY and QQQ.  TSLA (-8.39% on $40.2 billion traded) led that rout in the high-tech names which also saw INTC (-5.27%), AMD (-3.84%), and NVDA (-2.80%) take a beating.

The major economic news on Tuesday was limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence, which disappointed at 98.3 (compared toa forecast of 102.7 and the January reading of 105.3).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report showed a surprise drawdown of 0.640 million barrels (versus a forecasted build of 2.300 million barrels and the prior week’s 3.339-million-barrel inventory build).

In Fed news, on Tuesday Vice Chair Barr discussed crisis management.  He used the example of poor risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (which failed in March 2023) as reason for strong bank oversight.  This comes just days before Barr steps down from the head of Bank Supervision and with the Trump Administration expected to nominate a replacement that is far more friendly toward the wishes of banks.  Later, Richmond Fed President Barkin told an audience that he FOMC needs to be cautious.  Barkin said Trump administration trade and other policy changes “argue for caution as we look to wrap up the inflation fight.” He went on to explain, “It’s hard to make significant monetary policy changes amid such uncertainty … So, I prefer to wait and see how this uncertainty plays out and how the economy responds.”  Meanwhile, the GOP has created a Congressional panel to investigate the Fed in an attempt to force the FOMC to support their political ends.  (Now that the GOP controls all parts of the government, inflation is not a priority and they want the Fed to focus on stimulating the economy.)  Representative Frank Lucas, an Oklahoma Republican, questioned, “Is there really a dual mandate?”  He continued, “A substantial number of my Financial Services Committee colleagues and the chairman want to discuss that issue.”  He went on to argue for a rule-based system where the FOMC just implements policy changes based on rules set by Congress (Republicans in this case). 

After the close, AXON, BGS, CWH, CHRD, FIHL, HY, INTU, JAZZ, KEYS, LNW, MASI, MATX, OUT, PARR, SPXC, and WDAY all reported beats on bot the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CZR, CPNG, EXR, CART, PR, RRC, and STRL missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, AGL, AMC, FSLR, and GO beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with just four of the 12 exchanges in the red.  Hong Kong (+3.27%), Thailand (+2.05%), and Malaysia (+1.32%) led the broad gains.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.13%), DAX (+1.34%), and FTSE (+0.56%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 6:40 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a higher start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.30% open, SPY is implying a +0.49% open, and QQQ implies a +0.76% open at this earlier hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are up to 4.317% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $69.06 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to January Building Permits (8 a.m.) and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and January New Home Sales (both at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (midnight and noon). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, AER, ABEV, BUD, APG, AVA, BLMN, BCO, CTRI, COMM, DOLE, DY, EME, ENOV IEP, ICL, LINE, LOW, NRG, ODP, OPCH, SWX, SHOO, TJX, UTHR, UWMC, and VRSK.  Then after the close, A, APA, ARDT, ARKO, BBSI, CHE, CRGY, EXE, CRH, CAPL, DORM, EBAY, WTRG, FE, FRWD, GRBK, DEF, HG, HEI, HHH, INVH, KNTK, VAC, MYRG, NTNX, NVDA, OVV, PARA, PSTG, CRM, SRPT, SBGI, SNOW, SUI, SNPS, TALO, TDOC, TKO, UHS, URBN, and WES report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Jan. Core Durable Goods Orders, Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 Core PCE Prices, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, January Pending Home Sales, and Fed member Harker speaks.  Finally, on Friday, Jan. Core PCE Prince Index, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance. Jan. Personal Spending, Jan. Retail Inventories, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ADT, GBTG, AMBP, ARGX, BBWI, BECN, CM, XRAY, DCI, SATS, ERJ, EDR, EFXT, EVRG, FMX, GEO, GTN, HGV, HRL, IBP, SJM, KOP, LSEA, LTH, TIGO, VYX, NXST, NCLH, PZZAA, PENN, PLKT, RY, FUN, STGW, TD, FTI, TGNA, TFX, VRN, VTRS, VST, WBD, ACHC, ALHC, AMRC, AHR, ACA, ASTH, ADSK, BE, CODI, DELL, SSP, EOG, ERIE, HPQ, ICFI, ICUI, IHRT, MTZ, MNST, MOS, NTAP, OPEN, PGRE, PBA, PRGO, RKT, SOLV, RUN, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AES, AMR, AMRX, CLMT, GTLS, GLP, and OMI report.

So far this morning, AAP, AER, BUD, BLMN, COMM, DOLE, DTM, DY, ENOV, LOW, NRG, OPCH, SHOO, and UTHR all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ABEV, AVA, ODP, and TBLA beat on revenue while missing on the earnings lines.  On the other side, ICL and LINE missed on revenue while beating on earnings. 

With that background, the market again looks undecided again this morning.  All three major index ETFs started the premarket by gapping up modestly, but have printed tiny, indecisive candles since that point.  The short-term trend remains bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess, with only the DIA resolving it bearishly at this point.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish.  In terms of extension, QQQ is now stretched below its T-line (8ema), but better than Tuesday while SPY and DIA are a bit better.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back up into the lower half of its mid-range. So, while both sides of the market have room to work today, the Bulls have more room to move, if they can some momentum. In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green in the premarket.  NVDA (+2.38%) is way out in front leading the gainers.  On the other side, AAPL (-0.36%) is the only Big Dog in the red.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads TSLA (+1.30%) are neck-and-neck with the next-closest ticker having traded 6.5 times less than those two.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, we saw a pop at the open (a relief bounce from Friday’s selloff).  SPY gapped up 0.34%, DIA gapped up 0.38%, and QQQ gapped up 0.30%.  However, from there, all three major index ETFs sold off, recrossing the opening gap for 40 minutes. At that point, all three bounced in a divergent way with QQQ not getting back to the Friday close, SPY making back into the opening gap, and DIA crossing its opening gap. Those bounces only lasted until 1 p.m., when the Bears led the market to roll over that really picked up steam the last 10 minutes.  This took us out very near the lows.  This action gave us black body candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ both printed black body candles with small upper wicks and virtually no lower wick.  At the same time, DIA gave us a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.

On the day, seven of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Technology (-1.49%) was out front leading the way lower. On the other side, Communication Services (+0.63%) held up much better than the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.46%, DIA managed to gain 0.09%, and QQQ lost 1.18%. Meanwhile, VXX gained 0.83% to close at 44.93 and T2122 climbed slightly but remained in the top end of oversold territory, closing at 17.78.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell slightly to 4.400% and Oil (WTI) climbed just a bit, closing at $70.83 per barrel. So, Monday was a bit of a Bull trap with a modest gap higher, met by selling and then, after a modest bounce, a roll over ending the day in a sharp move lower.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, average volume in the QQQ, and above-average volume in DIA.

There was no major economic news on Monday.  However, the 2-Year Bond auction came in at a lower yield than expected at 4.169% (compared to the previous auction’s 4.211% yield result). It is also worth noting that at the end of the day, the Trump administration said its plans for tariffs on Canada and Mexico remain “on track” and “will go forward.” The phony pretexts (fentanyl) of the tariffs were always irrelevant as the White House now says these are a negotiation tactic for renegotiation of the trade deal he struck in his last administration.

After the close, BWXT, CTRA, FANG, GFL, KBR, OKE, PRIM, SBAC, MODG, TCOM, UCTT, VVX, and ZM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. However, CLF, CIVI, O, and PSA missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Thailand (-2.38%), Japan (-1.39%), and Hong Kong (-1.32%) led the region lower.  In Europe, the opposite picture is taking shape with 12 of 14 bourses in the green at midday. The CAC (+0.01%), DAX (+0.13%), and FTSE (+0.34%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:20 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.06% open, and QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields dropped sharply to 4.323% and Oil (WTI) is off three-tenths of a percent to $70.50 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10 a.m.) and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AHCO, AS, AMT, BMO, BNS, CRI, CYD, DK, DRVN, ELAN, HSIC, HD, IGT, ITRI, KDP, KTB, LGIH, MIDD, PNW, PEG, SEE, SRE, STN, SGHC, BLD, and YSG.  Then after the close, AGL, AMC, AXON, BGS, CZR, CWH, CHRD, CPNG, EXR, FIHL, FSLR, GO, HY, CART, INTU, JAZZ, KEYS, LNW, MASI, MATX, OUT, PARR, PR, RRC, STRL, and WDAY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and January New Home Sales are reported.  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (midnight and noon). On Thursday we get Jan. Core Durable Goods Orders, Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 Core PCE Prices, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, January Pending Home Sales, and Fed member Harker speaks.  Finally, on Friday, Jan. Core PCE Prince Index, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance. Jan. Personal Spending, Jan. Retail Inventories, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AAP, AER, ABEV, BUD, APG, AVA, BLMN, BCO, CTRI, COMM, DOLE, DY, EME, ENOV IEP, ICL, LINE, LOW, NRG, ODP, OPCH, SWX, SHOO, TJX, UTHR, UWMC, VRSK, A, APA, ARDT, ARKO, BBSI, CHE, CRGY, EXE, CRH, CAPL, DORM, EBAY, WTRG, FE, FRWD, GRBK, DEF, HG, HEI, HHH, INVH, KNTK, VAC, MYRG, NTNX, NVDA, OVV, PARA, PSTG, CRM, SRPT, SBGI, SNOW, SUI, SNPS, TALO, TDOC, TKO, UHS, URBN, and WES report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADT, GBTG, AMBP, ARGX, BBWI, BECN, CM, XRAY, DCI, SATS, ERJ, EDR, EFXT, EVRG, FMX, GEO, GTN, HGV, HRL, IBP, SJM, KOP, LSEA, LTH, TIGO, VYX, NXST, NCLH, PZZAA, PENN, PLKT, RY, FUN, STGW, TD, FTI, TGNA, TFX, VRN, VTRS, VST, WBD, ACHC, ALHC, AMRC, AHR, ACA, ASTH, ADSK, BE, CODI, DELL, SSP, EOG, ERIE, HPQ, ICFI, ICUI, IHRT, MTZ, MNST, MOS, NTAP, OPEN, PGRE, PBA, PRGO, RKT, SOLV, RUN, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AES, AMR, AMRX, CLMT, GTLS, GLP, and OMI report.

So far this morning, AS, AMT, BMO, BNS, CRI, DRVN, HD, KDP, KTB, SEE, and BLD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, HSIC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ELAN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, IGT and LGIH missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market again looks undecided at this point of the premarket.  All three major index ETFs gapped modestly lower to open the early session, but all three have printed white-body candles since that point.  It looks as if DIA is trying to find support off a level stretching back to the October highs.  However, there is no obvious support level apparent for SPY or QQQ.  So, the short-term trend is bearish. At the same time, the mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess, with only the DIA resolving it bearishly at this point.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish.  In terms of extension, QQQ is now stretched below its T-line (8ema) and SPY and DIA are not far behind.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is in the top part of its oversold range.  So, while both sides of the market have room to work today, the Bulls have more room to move, if they can some momentum. In terms of the Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in the red in the premarket.  NVDA (-0.78%) and INTC (-0.70%) are out in front pacing the losses while TSLA (+0.28%) and AAPL (+0.08%) are the only big dogs holding on to green territory.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA leads TSLA by 10% with the next closes tickers trading six times less dollar-volume than the electric car maker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged at the open Friday.  SPY opened just 0.02% lower, DIA gapped down 0.71%, and QQQ gapped up 0.16%.  However, at that point, all three got in line and sold off in lock step the entire rest of the day.  This action gave us large, black-body candles with little to no wick in all three.  SPY and QQQ joined DIA in closing far below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on roughly average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Technology (-2.74%) was out in front leading the way lower.  On the other side, Consumer Defensive (+0.53%) was the outlier and only sector in the green.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.71%, DIA lost 1.86%, and QQQ lost 2.08%.  Meanwhile VXX spiked 6.85% to close at 44.33 and T2122 dropped down into oversold territory, closing at 14.96.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to 4.431% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.08%, closing at $70.25 per barrel. So, Friday was the Bear’s day from the outset.  There was some divergence at the open, but that immediately melted away and the rout was on all day long.

The major economic news on Friday included Preliminary S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in a tad better than expected at 51.6 9compared to a 51.3 forecast and January’s 51.2 reading).  On the services side, Preliminary S&P Services PMI was lower than was expected at 49.7 (versus a 53.0 forecast and January’s 52.9 value).  Together this gave us a Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI of 50.4 (down from January’s 52.9 number).  Later, the January Existing Home Sales were lower than anticipated at 4.08 million (compared to a 4.13 million forecast and December’s 4.29 million reading).  At the same time, Michigan Consumer Sentiment down to 64.7 (versus the 67.3 forecast and January value).  Looking forward, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also down to 64.0 (compared to a forecast and January reading of 67.3).  In terms of inflation, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations were up sharply to 4.3% (versus a 4.3% forecast but up dramatically from January’s 3.3% number).  Looking further out, the Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations were up sharply to 3.5% (compared to a 3.3% forecast and the January 3.2% reading).

In Fed news, on Friday, Vice Chair Jefferson said that AI was speeding up market reactions to FOMC member statements.  Jefferson said, “For now, I do not think artificial intelligence is changing the way policymakers communicate, but research shows that it has affected how quickly information about policy is incorporated into asset prices.”  He went on to say more research is needed, but AI “may provide an incentive for investors to value speed over accuracy, and may reduce the long-run informativeness of asset prices, which could hurt the transmission of monetary policy.”  For now, Jefferson urged his fellow policymakers to “communicate as clearly as possible to avoid increasing uncertainty.” 

After the close, HE reported misses on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with just two of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  India (-1.06%), Thailand (-0.83%), and Taiwan (-0.70%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the mixed picture leans toward the green side at midday with six of 14 bourses in red and eight above water.  The CAC (-0.42%), DAX (+0.61%), and FTSE (-0.02%) lead the region modestly higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the morning.  DIA implies a +0.70% open, the SPY is implying a +0.45% open, and QQQ implies a +0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are up to 4.445% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $70.46 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AZUL, BRKB, CCO, DPZ, KSPI, OC, and WLK.  Then after the close, BWXT, CIVI, CLF, CTRA, FANG, GFL, KBR, OKE, PRIM, PSA, O, SBAC, MODG, TCOM, UCTT, VVX, and ZM report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and January New Home Sales are reported.  We also hear from Fed Member Bostic twice (midnight and noon). On Thursday we get Jan. Core Durable Goods Orders, Jan. Durable Goods Orders, Q4 Core PCE Prices, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, January Pending Home Sales, and Fed member Harker speaks.  Finally, on Friday, Jan. Core PCE Prince Index, Jan. PCE Price Index, Jan. Goods Trade Balance. Jan. Personal Spending, Jan. Retail Inventories, and Chicago PMI are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AHCO, AS, AMT, BMO, BNS, CRI, CYD, DK, DRVN, ELAN, HSIC, HD, IGT, ITRI, KDP, KTB, LGIH, MIDD, PNW, PEG, SEE, SRE, STN, SGHC, BLD, YSG, AGL, AMC, AXON, BGS, CZR, CWH, CHRD, CPNG, EXR, FIHL, FSLR, GO, HY, CART, INTU, JAZZ, KEYS, LNW, MASI, MATX, OUT, PARR, PR, RRC, STRL, and WDAY. Then Wednesday, AAP, AER, ABEV, BUD, APG, AVA, BLMN, BCO, CTRI, COMM, DOLE, DY, EME, ENOV IEP, ICL, LINE, LOW, NRG, ODP, OPCH, SWX, SHOO, TJX, UTHR, UWMC, VRSK, A, APA, ARDT, ARKO, BBSI, CHE, CRGY, EXE, CRH, CAPL, DORM, EBAY, WTRG, FE, FRWD, GRBK, DEF, HG, HEI, HHH, INVH, KNTK, VAC, MYRG, NTNX, NVDA, OVV, PARA, PSTG, CRM, SRPT, SBGI, SNOW, SUI, SNPS, TALO, TDOC, TKO, UHS, URBN, and WES report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADT, GBTG, AMBP, ARGX, BBWI, BECN, CM, XRAY, DCI, SATS, ERJ, EDR, EFXT, EVRG, FMX, GEO, GTN, HGV, HRL, IBP, SJM, KOP, LSEA, LTH, TIGO, VYX, NXST, NCLH, PZZAA, PENN, PLKT, RY, FUN, STGW, TD, FTI, TGNA, TFX, VRN, VTRS, VST, WBD, ACHC, ALHC, AMRC, AHR, ACA, ASTH, ADSK, BE, CODI, DELL, SSP, EOG, ERIE, HPQ, ICFI, ICUI, IHRT, MTZ, MNST, MOS, NTAP, OPEN, PGRE, PBA, PRGO, RKT, SOLV, RUN, and TTEC.  Finally, on Friday, AES, AMR, AMRX, CLMT, GTLS, GLP, and OMI report.

So far this morning, BRKB, FDP, and OC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DPZ and WLK missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market has modestly gapped up (rebounded) at the open of the Premarket.  All three major index ETFs are printing white-body, inside day candles so far in the early session.  However, there is divergence as DIA has no lower wick and only a tiny upper wick.  However, SPY and QQQ have much smaller candle bodies and have backed down into Doji-type candles early.  So, while all three are moving back toward their T-line, they are all still solidly below that average and the short-term trend remains bearish. The mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess.  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the three are stretched too far from their T-line this morning given them opening the premarket with a gap back toward it.  However, the T2122 indicator is in its oversold range.  So, both sides of the market have room to work today, but the Bulls have more room to move, if they can find momentum. In terms of the Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green in the premarket.  NVDA (+1.32%) is way out in front pacing the gainers while TSLA (-1.67%) is far behind the rest lagging.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA and TSLA are neck-and-neck on a modest volume morning. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday saw the Bears in charge early and then a modest afternoon recovery.  SPY gapped down 0.23%, DIA gapped down 0.30%, and QQQ opened 0.15% lower.  At that point, all three major indexes followed through to the downside.  SPYA and QQQ reached their lows of the day just after 10 a.m. while DIA’s selloff was slower, reaching its low at noon.  From those lows, all three major index ETFs put in a long, slow, but steady rebound that took them about half way back to the opening level.  This action gave us black-bodied Hammer-type candles in all three, with DIA having a much larger body (relative to its wick) than the other two.  All three retested their T-line (8ema) from above during the day with SPY and QQQ passing the test while DIA crossed below and stayed there.  With this all said, it is worth remembering that SPY and QQQ are still less than half a percent below Wednesday’s all-time high close and lowly DIA is just two percent below its own all-time high.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Financial Services (-1/19%) was out in front leading the way lower.  On the other side, Energy (+0.48%) paced a more tightly-packed group of sectors that held up better and ended in the green. At the same time, SPY lost 0.42%, DIA lost 0.96%, and QQQ lost 0.42%.  Meanwhile VXX gained half a percent to close at 41.49 and T2122 fell back just below the midpoint of its mid-range, closing at 43.52.  On the bond side, 10-Year Bond yields fell to 4.507% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.39%, closing at $72.53 per barrel.  So, Thursday seemed to be a little pullback from those all-time highs in the broad SPY and QQQ indexes.  This may have been driven by WMT’s lackluster guidance following its premarket beats on both lines or perhaps just profit-taking.  In either case, the Bears did not cause any major damage and were unable to gain momentum.  This all happened on below-average volume in SPY and QQQ as well as average volume in DIA.

The major economic news on Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit higher than expected at 219k (compared to a 215k forecast and the prior week’s 214k value).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were just on the green side of expectations at 1,869k (versus the 1,870k forecast but up from the prior week’s 1,845k reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was down to 5.3 (compared to the January 11.9 number). For the headline number, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was also sharply down to 18.1 (versus a forecast of 19.4 but sharply lower than the January 44.3 reading).  Later, the US Leading Economic Indicators were worst than anticipated at -0.3% (compared to a -0.1% forecast and the December +0.1% value).  Meanwhile, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger-than-predicted inventory build of 4.633 million barrels (versus a +3.200-million-barrel forecast and the previous week’s +4.070-million-barrel number).  Finally, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a significant (relatively speaking) decrease of $32 billion for the week, ending at $6.782 trillion.

In Fed news, on Wednesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Yahoo Finance, “I’ve been really comfortable with the idea that we would take a pause and wait and see how the economy’s evolving and then use that information to guide what our policy should look like over the next several months.”  He went on to say Trump’s tariff’s (followed by their postponement and revision) makes it extremely hard to figure out inflation direction in the economy.  Bostic went on to say, “I definitely want to make sure that before jumping to any conclusions, I see precisely what the policies are.”  At the same time, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said, “The performance of the U.S. economy has been quite strong overall.”  He went on to say that the Fed can take its time before making any more moves, saying, “I believe that, with a strong economy and a solid labor market, we can take our time to assess the incoming data to make any further adjustments to our policy rate.”  Later, the January FOMC Meeting Minutes were released.  Those minutes showed the FOMC is worried about tariffs and their impact on inflation.  The minutes noted that Fed policy is “significantly less restrictive” than it was before the rate cuts began, giving FOMC members time to evaluate conditions before making any additional moves.  The report went on to indicate committee members were worried about “Upside risks to the inflation outlook. In particular, participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy.”

In Fed news, on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he does not expect (the FOMC’s favorite inflation indicator) the PCE to be as “sobering” as the recent CPI data.  Goolsbee said, “The CPI number was not great, (but) … The PCE number is probably going to still be not great, but it’s not (likely to be) as sobering as the CPI number.”  Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Bostic told Reuters Trump policy and policy impact uncertainty are impacting the Fed and companies he is speaking with.  He said “his baseline expectation” is for two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts later this year.  However, “the uncertainty around that expectation is pretty significant … There’s a lot that could happen that could influence that in both directions.”  At the same time, St. Louis Fed President Musalem told a New York audience “Market and some survey measures indicate that near-term expectations of inflation have risen notably over the past three months.”  He went on to say, “(if that does not change,) a more restrictive path of monetary policy relative to the baseline path (a rate hike) might be appropriate.”  Finally, Fed Governor Kugler said that “(US inflation) still has some way to go.”  She went on to comment on the lack of clarity Trump administration policy and its effects, saying “The potential net effect of new economic policies also remains highly uncertain and will depend on the breadth, duration, reactions to, and, importantly, specifics of the measures adopted.”  She went on to state the obvious, “Going forward, in considering the appropriate federal funds rate, we will watch these developments closely and continue to carefully assess the incoming data and evolving outlook.”

After the close, AMN, BKNG, CENX, COKE, FIX, ED, CPRT, DBX, EXPI, FND, FNF, GMED, PODD, LYV, MELI, NEM, RXT, REZI, RNG, SFM, TXRH, and VICI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EGO, NU, RYI, WSC, and WKC missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, AKAM, BCC, FG, FYBR, RIVN, and SEM beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, XYZ, CGAU, EVH, GLOB, IAG, RYAN, and RHP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with just three of the 12 exchanges below break-even.  China led the region with Hong Kong (+3.99%) was way out in front followed by Shenzhen (+1.82%) and Taiwan (+1.03%).  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with 12 of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.54%), DAX (+0.22%), and FTSE (+0.13%) lead the continent higher on broad-based gains in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:35 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the morning.  The DIA implies a-0.29% open, while SPYU is implying a +0.07% open, and QQQ implies a +0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond Yields are down to 4.488% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.91% to $71.82 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Preliminary S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary S&P Services PMI, and Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), January Existing Home Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include TDS, TXNM, and VIPS.  Then after the close, HE reports. 

So far this morning, TDS and VIPS have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TXNM missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings.

With that background, the market does look truly undecided or perhaps rotational at this point of the premarket.  DIA gapped down and has printed a larger, black-body candle with no lower wick so far this morning. At the same time, SPY opened modestly lower and QQQ opened modestly higher in the early session.  However, they have both printed white-body candles with no wick and QQQ is giving a larger-body candle to boot.  So, SPY is above, QQQ is above and pulling away, and DIA is below and pulling away from their T-lines (8ema). So, the short-term trend is mixed, but modestly bullish in the broader indexes with the DIA pushing against that bias. The mid-term trend remains a choppy sideways mess that is trying to resolve itself bullishly (except DIA which is trying to roll over).  At the same time, the long-term trend remains bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the three are stretched too far from their T-line.  At the same time, the T2122 indicator sits in the center of its mid-range.  So, both sides of the market have room to work today if they can find momentum. In terms of the Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the green in the premarket.  INTC (+0.92%) is out front pacing the gainers while APPL (-0.029%) is the laggard and only Big Dog in the red.  As far as liquidity goes, NVDA (+0.03%) leads with TSLA (+0.07%) not too far behind and the next-closest Big Dog having traded only one-third as much as TSLA.  However, bear in mind that this is a VERY light-volume premarket session.  Also remember that it is Friday, Pay Day, and we have a long weekend news cycle ahead before the market opens Monday.  So, prepare your account.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service