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Big Data Dumps Before The Holiday

November 25, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher, but mixed amounts on Tuesday. The QQQ jumped up four-tenths of a percent, the SPY eight-tenths of a percent, and on the day that the Dow broke 30,000, the DIA gapped up a full percent. We then saw a follow-through rally the rest of the morning. However, markets spent that afternoon grinding sideways, even with large position-covering volume the last 10 minutes of the day. VXX lost a percent to 18.05 and T2122 held in place deep in overbought territory at 95.84. 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.882% and oil popped 4% to $44.86/barrel as optimism (or relief from uncertainty) over a government transition seemed to buoy markets in the morning.

Mortgage rates dropped again this week to 2.92%. This move was cheered by borrowers as mortgage applications climbed 4% for the week (19% increase from the same week in 2019). However, it was refinancing (71% of the applications) that caused most of this activity. Refinance applications were up 79% year-on-year and at the highest level since April.

From the “better to be lucky than good sometimes” file, a sidebar to the recent AZN vaccine news. It turns out the 90% efficacy rate was only achieved under younger patients. More interestingly, that dosage was only stumbled upon by mistake. AZN made a systemic error and only gave half doses to a large group of volunteers. This was only discovered because they reported far fewer side effects than expected. So, rather than throw out the data and start again, AZN continued and just gave those volunteers a full dose a month later. It turns out that this 1.5 dose regimen was over 25% more effective than the full 2 doses…at least in younger patients. The CDC is reviewing the AZN data and hoping to find ways to increase efficacy or reduce side effects in the similar PFE and MRNA vaccines.

On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US. This surge has raised the US totals to 12,958,805 confirmed cases and 265,986 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 178,692 while a spike in deaths (2,194, the highest since the start of May) saw the average deaths rise to 1,657/day. Meanwhile, the HHS is conducting a test of the vaccine distribution networks in hope of heading off problems when an approved vaccine is available.

Globally, the numbers rose to 60,240,061 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,417,858 deaths. Hong Kong is seeing another rise in cases as new restrictions are to begin. The WHO says that Europe is still the epicenter, accounting for 44% of new cases and 49% of deaths the past week. This came as Germany reported another new record daily high in cases.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but this time leaned to the red side. Shenzhen (-1.74%), Shanghai (-1.19%), and India (-1.51%) paced the losses. Malaysia (+1.22%) and Thailand (+1.01%) were far and away the larges gainers. In Europe, we see a similar mixed picture so far today. The FTSE (-0.69%), DAX (-0.18%), and CAC (+0.03%) lead the way, but the continent’s exchanges range from -0.94% to +0.81%. As of 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to a mixed open. The DIA is implying a flat open (-0.05%), the SPY a 0flat (+0.08%) open, and the QQQ to a slight gap higher (+0.38%).

There is a large amount of economic data today. Oct. Durable Goods, Q3 Employment Cost Index, Q3 GDP Price Index, Oct. Trade Balance, Oct. Retail Inventories, and Oct. Core PCE Price Index (all at 8:30 am), Oct. PCE Price Index, Oct. Personal Spending, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Oct. New Home Sales (all at 10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (at 10:30 am). Major earnings reports are limited to DOOO and DE before the open. There are no earnings reports after the close.

All the data makes the open uncertain at this point. However, remember many traders may already be headed to the door for a long weekend. So, low-volume volatility is quite possible, As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Don’t chase moves you have missed (there will be another opportunity) and stick with your trading rules. Our job as traders is consistency, not hitting home runs,

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WRK, DFS, IP, DAR, PWR, XLB, USB, MTCH, SBUX, BA. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Yellen to be Nominated for Treasury

November 24, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped about a half percent higher at the open Monday on good vaccine news from AZN. However, a sharp selloff about 10am lasted an hour and a slow recovery brought the major indices back to close near the gap-ups. SPY and QQQ both printed indecisive Doji or Spinning Top type candles on the day, while DIA was a little more bullish, but still had quite a bit of wick. On the day DIA gained 1.16%, SPY gained 0.62%, and QQQ was dead flat. The VXX lost 1.24% to 18.37 and T2122 rose further into overbought territory at 95.55. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.859% and Oil gained a percent to $42.91/barrel on vaccine-recovery hopes.

President-elect Biden announced several of his cabinet nominees. The key name for markets is that Biden will nominate former Fed Chair Yellen as his Sec. of Treasury. Financial pundits claim the markets like this nomination. This comes hours before the GSA announced Monday night that the formal transition process can now begin (despite President Trump’s ongoing spate of lawsuits they hope would nullify election results and delay the process). Futures rose on the GSA news.

CNBC reports that the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee, Rep. Neguse, has called for hearings on regulatory approach (such as the FTC) to approving “big pharma” mergers. Specifically cited were the ABBV acquisition of AGN and the merger of PFE and MYL. This news comes in the wake of the committee’s year-long investigation into big tech (AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG) anti-trust practices. However, at this point, it is preliminary and yet to be determined if a full investigation is warranted.

On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US. This surge has raised the US totals to 12,778,924 confirmed cases and 263,701 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 176,434 while the average deaths rose to 1,577/day. This surge has put a large strain on the healthcare system nationally. One example is Cleveland Clinic (a major Hospital Network in the Cleveland area) reported 970 caregivers are out due to the virus, triple the number from just 2 weeks ago.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Japan (+2.50%) and Australia (+1.26%) led gainers. Meanwhile, Thailand (-1.32%) and Malaysia (-1.20%) passed the losers. In Europe, markets are generally green, with just two small-market exceptions, Denmark (-1.22%) and Switzerland (-0.22%). However, in general Europe seems to like the news of the official US transition with the 3 major bourses being typical with the FTSE (+0.99%), DAX (+0.92%), and CAC (+1.19%). As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed gap higher. The DIA is implying a 0.90% gap up, the SPY a 0.60% gap up and the QQQ just a 0.21% “gap” higher.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Bullard at 11 am, Williams at noon, and Clarida at 12:45 pm. Major earnings reports include ANF, ADI, BBY, BURL, DKS, DLTR, DY, HRL, SJM, J, MDT, and TIF before the open. Then after the close AEO, ADSK, DELL, GPS, HPQ, JWN, VMW report.

As we draw nearer to the holiday break, we may see less volume. However, there is plenty of major earnings today, especially in the retail space. That said, those are backward-looking and we do have the big Black Friday and Cyber Monday retail events coming in days. Also, remember that we have been range-bound for a couple of weeks and the very short-term trend has been a pullback with all-time high resistance above and some support just below.

As always, respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Don’t chase moves you have missed (there will be another opportunity) and stick with your trading rules. Our job as traders is consistency, not hitting home runs,

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PEIX, DK, WLL, LUV, SCHW, FORM. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Vaccine and Treatment News

November 23, 2020 by Ed Carter

Stocks opened flat in the SPY and QQQ, but the DIA gapped down about four-tenths of a percent. After a little sideways roller-coaster action, all 3 major indices sold off late to end the day lower. The only signal printed on the day was Bearish Harami in the QQQ. For the day SPY and QQQ both lost 0.68% and DIA was down 0.95%. The VXX was flat at 18.60 and T2122 rose again in the overbought territory to 92.25. 10-year bond yields fell significantly again to 0.824% and Oil (WTI) gained a percent to close at $42.17/barrel. For the week the large-caps were both down about eight-tenths of a percent while the QQQ was indecisive and off just two-tenths of a percent.

On Saturday the FDA authorized emergency use of the REGN monoclonal antibody treatment (similar to part of what was given President Trump) after a study on non-human primates indicated benefit. On Sunday, White House Vaccine Czar Slaoui told reporters the first vaccinations could take place in mid-December. However, he also said the best-case hope is to get the first of two jabs done for up to 20 million of the priority people before year end, with widespread availability in later Q1 or Q2, and getting to children by mid-year 2021.

Then overnight, AZN reported that its vaccine was about 70% effective on average. (It was trialed in 2 dosages; one was 62% effective and the other 90% effective. Both require two injections, on month apart.) While less effective than the two US vaccines, the AZN vaccine does not require anything more than typical refrigeration (30-40 degrees F) which makes it far easier to distribute and administer than the US vaccines. And finally, MRK announced it plans to acquire privately-held OncoImmune, which is in late-stage clinical trials of a drug that shows promise as a respiratory treatment for Covid-19 patients.

On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US. This surge has raised the US totals to 12,590,220 confirmed cases and 262,711 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 172,789 while the average deaths rose to 1,547/day. 47 states are in the White House Task force’s “red zone.”

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green, with Japan (-0.42%) the lone holdout. Thailand (+2.24%), South Korea (+1.92%), and Taiwan (+1.18%) led gainers, but the rally was broad. There is a similar situation in Europe so far today, with just a handful of red on the board. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is flat (+0.02%), while the DAX (+0.50%) and CAC (+0.41%) are up at this point in their morning. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a green start to the day. The DIA (+0.59%), SPY (+0.51%), and QQQ (+0.29%) are all pointing to positive opens.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to Nov. Mfg. PMI and Nov. Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and a single Fed speaker (Daily at 1 pm). The only major earnings report before the open is WMG. However, after the close, A, CBT, CENT, CENTA, and URBN report.

The holiday-shortened trading week appears to be kicking off with the bulls in charge. However, remember that we have been range-bound for a couple of weeks and the very short-term trend has been a pullback with all-time high resistance above and some support just below.

With more positive vaccine and treatment news, obvious expectations would be for a rally. However, Mr. Market seldom does exactly what the consensus expects. We have a couple of days off, Black Friday and Cyber Monday all just ahead. So, there’s also the possibility of hedging or lightening up in front of those events. Just be careful.

As always, maintain discipline with your trading rules and don’t chase. Respect the trend, support/resistance, and price action. Our job as traders is consistency, not hitting home runs,

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: KIRK, NOVA, PLUG, BOOT, TLRY, NIO, EYE, LABU, WK, APPS, TUP, CLF, DSS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

PFE to File For Vaccine Use

November 20, 2020 by Ed Carter

Stocks ground sideways all morning Thursday. However, an announcement from Senate Democratic Leader Schumer saying that Senate Majority Leader McConnell had agreed to resume stimulus negotiations helped lead to an afternoon rally. All 3 major indices closed near their highs as a result. On the day, DIA was up 0.19%, SPY up 0.42%, and QQQ up 0.78%. The QQQ also managed to print a Bullish Engulfing candle on the day. VXX lost a percent to 18.64 and T2122 fell a tad, but remains in the overbought territory at 84.25. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 0.836% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.82/barrel.

After the close, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin asked the Fed to extend some emergency programs for another 90 days, but to end other programs. The programs he asked the Fed to extend include short-term loans to businesses as well as backstop guarantees for Payroll Protection Program loans. The two main programs he asked the Fed to kill are the purchase of corporate bonds and the direct “Main Street Lending” program targeted toward small and medium-sized businesses. With the killing of a couple of programs, Treasury has asked the Fed to return $455 billion (ostensibly so it can be spent elsewhere). While the impact on markets is as yet unknown, stocks did rally hard at the time the programs were first announced.

The other major overnight news is that as expected, PFE and BTNX will file for an “Emergency Use” Waiver for their vaccine today. The terminology is unclear to me (how can it be an emergency use, if it is a preventative medicine and not a treatment), but approval is expected to be nothing but a formality. The consensus is that MRNA will follow closely behind PFE/BTNX in requesting the same authorized usage next week.

On the virus front itself, infections continue to rage as the US saw another spike to 192,186 cases and 2,065 deaths on Thursday. This surge has raised the US totals to 12,072,560 confirmed cases and 258,354 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 169,813 while the average deaths rose to 1,398/day. All 50 states are have reported at least a 10% increase in cases since last week. 33 states have reported at least a 10% increase in covid-19 deaths since last week. New local and statewide restrictions continue to be implemented coast-to-coast mostly including mask mandates, curfews, and stay at home advisories.

Globally, the numbers rose to 57,382,260 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,368,493 deaths. Overnight a panel of WHO scientists have advised doctors to stop using Remdesivir from GILD to treat covid-19. The panel found in a study that there is no evidence that drug improves survival rates or reduces the need for ventilation. This comes the same night as the US FDA has approved Remdesivir for use in combination with LLY drug Baricitinib to treat covid-19.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned toward the green side. Thailand (+1.45%) led gainers by a wide margin while India (-0.92%) led the losses (also by a wide margin). All-in-all, most Asian exchanges were modestly positive on the day. However, in Europe, so far today we see green across the board. Smaller exchanges seem to have fared better, but the DAX (+0.47%), FTSE (+0.48%), and CAC (+0.47%) are indicative. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a mixed, but flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.16% open, the SPY implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% modest gain at the open.

The major economic news for Friday is limited to a single Fed speaker (Kaplan at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports are also very limited with FL reporting before the open.

With more positive vaccine news, not economic or earnings, and the Administration signaling they no longer see as bad of a problem, you might expect a strong rally. However, Thursday was the worst day ever in terms of new cases and the worst day since April in terms of deaths. And it will be several months before vaccines are widely available, let alone administered in two doses per patient (one month apart). So, the realities don’t seem to match. It is unclear which reality Mr. Market will live in today.

Remember that it’s Friday…pay day. So, take some money off the table or at least consider hedging yourself ahead of the weekend. As always, maintain discipline to your trading rules, don’t chase and respect trend, support/resistance, and price action.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TWLO, WIMI, TUP, ETSY, NBR, TMX, FCX, PSXP. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims and Virus News Lead

November 19, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets started the day flat in the large-caps and a slight gap-down in the QQQ. After a sideways grind in the morning, there was a strong afternoon selloff. This left both large-cap indices printing large Bearish Engulfing candles and all 3 major indices closed at the lows to give us large black ugly candles. The VXX gained almost 3% to 18.84 and T2122 fell a little but remains well into the overbought territory at 87.22. 10-year bond yields were flat at 0.868% and Oil (was up half a percent to $41.66/barrel.

In miscellaneous news, LUV sent furlough warnings to about 15% of their mechanics as stalled talks continue with the pilot and flight attendant unions. The company is asking employees to take a 10% pay cut. Meanwhile, GOOG announced that their employee productivity is back above pre-pandemic levels, so they have adjusted well.

Wednesday the Business Roundtable called for more stimulus to save the economy. Jamie Dimon of JPM called the amounts involved “chump change” and at the same time said it was critical to avoid an economic crash. At the same time, the Institute for International Finance reported that the virus has pushed global debt to a record $277 trillion with “advanced nations” debt reaching 432% of GDP in Q3 (up 50% from 2019 Q3) and “emerging economies” only a bit worse at 248% of GDP. And all this comes as the US Senate also went on holiday recess until Nov. 30. It did this without a vote on another stimulus package. So, either the Senate is not concerned or they are too divided to decide.

The virus continues to rage as the US saw another 173,768 cases and 1,964 deaths on Wednesday. This surge has raised the US totals to 11,876,240 confirmed cases and 256,311 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 164,996 while the average number of deaths rose to 1,266/day. 47 states are have reported at least a 10% increase in cases since last week. 33 states have reported at least a 10% increase in covid-19 deaths since last week. New local and statewide restrictions continue to be implemented coast-to-coast mostly including mask mandates, curfews, and stay at home suggestions/requests. This comes as Admiral Giroir (White House Task Force) told reporters “this is not crying wolf, it is an absolutely dangerous situation…I lose sleep over where are right now.”

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed yet again but leaned to the red side. Malaysia (-1.31%) and India (-1.29%) led the losses while Indonesia (+0.66%) and Shenzhen (+0.63%) led gainers. However, in Europe, so far today we see red across the board. Smaller exchanges seem to be worse off, but the DAX (-0.87%), FTSE (-0.72%), and CAC (-0.70%) are indicative. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a flat to a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.17% open, the SPY implying a -0.11% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.28% modest gain at the open.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Nov. Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Oct. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and a Fed Speaker speaks twice (Mester at 8:30 am and 12:35 pm). Major earnings reports include BERY, BJ, M, and NTES before the open. Then after the close, BECN, BEST, INTU, POST, ROST, WSM, and WDAY report.

With no more major vaccine news, economic news may have the chance to move markets this morning. Just remember that for every push, there will be a reaction back the other way. So, don’t get caught up in FOMO (on either side). Remember there will be a chance for price to come to you soon. Stick to your discipline, keep taking profits (goals/targets) on the way, and work your trade plan. Consistency beats the occasional homerun every time. Focus on the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. Good trading!

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SOLO, CRBP, JCI, NKLA, PLUG, DKNG, YUMC, QCOM. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Good Vaccine and 737 Max News

November 18, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down at the open Tuesday and then printed indecisive candles in all 3 major indices. The large-caps both printed white Doji type candles while the QQQ printed a black Spinning Top type candle. On the day, QQQ fell 0.32%, SPY fell 0.54% and DIA fell 0.56%. The VXX also fell a percent to 18.30 and T2122 dropped just a touch, but remains deep in overbought territory at 97.05. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.87% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.36/barrel.

A couple days after MRNA reported initial efficacy of 94.5% for their vaccine (95 test subjects), PFE and BNTX announced that additional analysis has shown their vaccine is 95% effective (170 test subjects) and they now have enough safety data to file for an emergency use waiver from the FDA within days. They report that there were 8 infections among those who got the vaccine (versus 162 among those who got a placebo) after 2 doses. So far, no “serious” safety concerns have been reported two months after the first administration. (There were 2% of recipients who had severe reactions to the first dose and just under 4% who reported fatigue after the first and/or second dose. However, those were not deemed major safety concerns. The typical 2-year study of long-term safety effects will be waived given the 1.3 million people who have already died from the virus worldwide.) This news is likely to buoy PFE, BTNX, MRNA (because they have the same class of vaccine), and the market as a whole (including Oil).

TGT crushed estimates in its early morning report. LOW came in short of estimates. BA is set to jump on both vaccine news and a Reuters report that the FAA has recertified the 737 Max to fly in the US again (after a 20-month grounding).

On the virus front, the US saw another 157,000+ cases and over 1,600 deaths on Tuesday. This surge has raised the US totals to 11,697,469 confirmed cases and 254,291 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 160,172 while the average deaths rose to 1,188/day. Again Tuesday, we saw new restrictions, partial lockdowns, and Governors/Municipalities begging people to take mitigation measures (wear masks, distance, and avoid gatherings, especially indoors) across the country. The FDA also approved the first self-test for home use from unlisted company Lucira.

Globally, the numbers rose to 56,069,908 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,346,103 deaths. Asia is starting to see another surge as even Japan and South Korea are seeing record numbers of cases the last week. Southern Australia is locking down again (6 days this time) after a new cluster has been seen. In China, the government declared they have found their own vaccine is safe and effective. The difference of the Chinese vaccine versus the two in the US is that the Chinese version only requires standard refrigeration and is shelf-stable for up to 3 years. However, the numbers from their study were not provided and the study hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed. In Europe, there are first signs that the lockdowns started a couple of weeks ago are helping to plateau new case counts.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but leaned to the green side. Japan (-1.11%) led the few losers, while Taiwan (+1.33%) and Thailand (+1.09%) led gainers. So far today we see a modest green move across the board in Europe. The FTSE (+0.29%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical of European bourses as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest green open. The DIA is implying a 0.47% gap up, the SPY implying a 0.35% gap, and the QQQ implying a 0.17% modest gain at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes Oct. Building Permits and Oct. Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed Speakers (Williams at 12:15 pm, Bullard at 1:20 pm, and Bostic at 5 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AVYA, LOW, TGT, and TJX before the open. After the close, KEYS, LB, NVDA, and UGI report.

The bulls are likely to run today on positive vaccine news. However, don’t get caught up in FOMO. Remember that price moves in a zig-zag pattern. So, don’t be the last one buying the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. Focus on discipline, taking profits (goals/targets) on the way, and work your trade plan. Consistency trumps the occasional homerun every time. Stick to the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. Good trading!

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ICPT, WLL, DKNG, GTHX, MUR, DVAX, OXY, CPE, WFC, APA, OKE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus, TSLA, and Senate Center Stage

November 17, 2020 by Ed Carter

Large-caps gapped higher Monday on the news of the MRNA vaccine 94% (first look) effectiveness report. After early follow-through, that market vacillated the rest of the day except for a strong surge the last 5 minutes. As a result, both large caps printed white Hammer type candles and the QQQ printed a large-body white candle. On the day, DIA was up 1.67%, SPY up 1.25%, and QQQ up 0.78%. The VXX lost another 2% to 18.65 and T2122 rose to extremely overbought at 99.03. 10-year bond yields rose again to 0.909% and Oil (WTI) was up over 3% to $41.44/barrel.

After the close Monday it was announced that TSLA will be joining the S&P500 in December. The CEOs of both FB and TWTR will face Senate Republicans on Tuesday in a session that will likely focus on perceived “silencing conservatives.” However, they may not get any quarter from the Democrats, who are likely to hammer them over not being more restrictive on lies and misinformation

On the virus front, the spread continues unchecked. This surge has raised the US totals to 11,540,461 confirmed cases and 252,684 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 158,363 while the average number of deaths rose to 1,170/day. Meanwhile, hospitalizations continue to rise, climbing to over 73,000 on Monday. In response, new restrictions and partial lockdowns continue from coast to coast as states continue to have to act on their own to control outbreaks.

Globally, the numbers rose to 55,466,741 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,334,671 deaths. New restrictions and lockdowns are taking place in Europe as well, even as countries that locked down a couple weeks ago (such as Germany) are starting to report progress in getting new case numbers to plateau.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Singapore (+1.11%), and India (+0.74%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.89%) paced the losers with other exchanges showing modest moves. In Europe, markets are mixed, but lean heavily red so far today. The FTSE (-1.12%), DAX (-0.27%), and CAC (-0.29%) are relatively typical across the continent. However, there are a couple of gainers such as Greece (+0.55%). As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a lower open on the large caps, with DIA implying a -0.59% and SPY implying a -0.46% open. The NASDAQ is implying a modest open to the up side at +0.25%.

The major economic news for Tuesday includes Oct. Retail Sales, Oct. Export Price Index, and Oct. Import Price Index (all at 8:30 am), Oct. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Sept. Business Inventories (10 am), and 2 Fed Speakers (Bostic and Daily both at noon). Major earning releases include ARMK, HD, KSS, SE, and WMT before the open. There are no major earnings announcements after the close.

WMT and HD posting beats this morning is helping futures. However, the worsening virus conditions and local/state mitigation measures are sure to continue to give volatility. Big tech names may get beaten up as FB and TWTR take their turn in the shooting gallery today. So, even with positive trends and the recent good vaccine news to help bulls, be careful.

Remember that price moves in a zig-zag pattern. Don’t be the last one buying on the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. Keep locking in your profits, maintain your discipline, and work your trade plan. Stick to the trading rules you have built, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance. Good trading!

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ESNT, SHOO, AEO, MFC, KNSL, DAR, ERIE, WING. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

MRNA Vaccine and Virus Dominate News

November 16, 2020 by Ed Carter

The market gapped about two-thirds of a percent higher Friday at the open. From there, we saw a sideways grind in all three major indices until an afternoon rally took off. Profit taking the last 15 minutes of the day closed markets off their highs, but it was still a white candle day in all 3 of the major indices. The QQQ printed an indecisive Spinning Top type candle while the DIA printed something that could be called a Morning Star signal if you squint. For the day QQQ closed up 0.88%, SPY up 1.38%, and DIA up 1.41%. The VXX lost 6% to close at 19.08 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) shot up back deep into overbought territory at 94.70. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.898% and Oil (WTI) fell two and a half percent to $40.12/barrel.

Early Monday, MRNA announced that its vaccine candidate was 94% effective against Covid-19 according to the initial look at 54 cases. As has been mentioned previously, this does not speak to the safety of the vaccine and it is based on a small sample size. However, markets are likely to jump on this news at least as confirmation of the PFE vaccine news from a week or so ago. At most, this is the second source of a vaccine against the virus, but this one too requires strict extreme low-temperature storage requirements.

In other business news, on Sunday AAL announce dit is slashing the number of flights between the US and UK in December due to weak demand brought on by the virus surge in both countries. Early Monday, PNC announced it will buy the US operations of Spanish bank BBVA. This $11.6 billion deal would be the second-largest bank merger of all time.

On the virus front, the spread continues unchecked. Friday the US had the worst day of any country since the beginning of the pandemic and had a new case count (188,000) almost 2.5 times higher than our worst day during the summer surge. This raised the US totals to 11,367,214 confirmed cases and 251,901 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 152,136 while the average deaths rose to 1,156/day. 45 states saw an increase of more than 10% in new case counts week-to-week with 17 of those seeing an increase of more than 50% in the period. 4 states saw a small increase (up less than a 10% week-on-week) and on SC reported a reduction (but that is believed to be a reporting glitch with their state’s data). This comes as many states are enacting new lockdown and restrictions.

Globally, the numbers rose to 54,936,761 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,326,265 deaths. With lockdowns in place in many parts of Europe for the last couple of weeks, there is starting to be a little better news. Germany reported last night that they are seeing the first signs of infection rates flattening. Meanwhile, the spread is picking up steam in Asia as Japan reported 3 consecutive record-high case count days,

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Australian markets were paused at the open due to a data issue, but managed to recover. Taiwan (+2.10%), Japan (+2.05%), and South Korea (+1.97%) led the gainers. There were no losers although New Zealand markets were closed. In Europe, we see a very similar picture so far today. The only red is from Denmark (-0.90%), while the rest of the continent followed Asia higher. Among the 3 major bourses, FTSE is up 1.61%, DAX up 1.35%, and CAC up 2.24% as of mid-day. These are typical of the rest of the indices across Europe. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to strong gaps higher in the large-caps. The DIA is implying a 1.75% gap up and the SPY is implying a 1.19% pop higher at the open. The NASDAQ is implying a flat open with the QQQ at -0.04% as of now.

The major economic news for Monday is limited to Nov. NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am) and 2 Fed Speakers (Daily at 1:45pm and Clarida at 2 pm). Major earning releases include ACM, JD, PANW, and TSN before the open. After the close, BIDU, IQ, and BEKE report.

The MRNA vaccine news was expected, but very welcome nonetheless. Futures show we are going to get a pop out of the news and maybe a resumption of rotations out of the lockdown tech names. Remember not to chase the moves that you have missed. Fear of missing out can be deadly for a trading account. Keep in mind that the market moves in a zig-zap pattern. Don’t be the last one buying on the zig unless you can handle the zag to come. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. So, keep locking in profits, maintain discipline, and working your plan. Stick to your trading rules, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BP, JETS, UPWK, EVRI, KO, TGI, PSX. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus Dominates News Again

November 13, 2020 by Ed Carter

The major indices gapped in a mixed manner Thursday, with large-caps both gapping down about half a percent while the QQQ gapped about a third of a percent higher. However, after the open, all three then trended lower all day on fears over the Covid-19 surge. At the end of the day, DIA closed down 1.04%, SPY down 0.97%, and QQQ down 0.47%. The VXX gained about 7% to 20.33 and T2122 fell back into the mid-range at 69.77. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.883% and Oil was off a percent to $40.69/barrel.

During the day, Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde agreed that the virus has changed the economy forever. While both expect the economy to recovery and eventually surpass the size of the pre-covid GDP. However, both say they expect it to be a different environment with automation replacing many human jobs and technology being leveraged to enabled far more virtual and distributed work. Generally speaking, they seemed to say that this pandemic has forced a dramatic increase in the pace of prior trends with technology. To them, this implies that the divergence between low-pay workers and high-pay workers will accelerate, meaning that portions of the economy dependent on low-pay workers as customers are at significant risk. At the same time, consumers will now be much more accustomed to online buying and remote service. So, retail and foot-traffic dependent businesses are all facing a different world than 12 months ago. Powell also took the chance to say the Fed will still need to do more than it already has and to lobby for more Congress and the Administration to do more fiscal stimulus.

The virus continues its wildfire surge. Thursday saw another huge spike in cases, up to a record 161,541 (a 20,000 case jump) in the US. This raised the totals to 10,873,936 confirmed cases and 248,585 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 135,399 while the average deaths rose to 1,086/day. During the day Thursday, Chicago issued a new stay at home order and the Mayor implored people to cancel Thanksgiving celebrations and stay locked down instead. CA also followed TX to become the second state to record over 1 million cases. Dr. Fauci (NIH) repeated his call to protect others by following guidelines, this time aiming at anti-maskers who he called “Americans with an independent spirit.”

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red again. Shanghai (-0.86%) led the losses, which were widespread but generally moderate. South Korea (+0.76%) and Thailand (+0.74%) led the gainers. In Europe, we see the same picture as mixed, but mostly moderately red so far today. Among the 3 major bourses, the FTSE is down 0.50%, the Dax up 0.18%, and the CAC up 0.35% at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US futures are also pointing to three-quarters of a percent gap higher at the open as of now.

The major economic news for Friday includes Oct. PPI (8:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and a couple Fed Speakers (Williams at 7 am and Bullard at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports on the day are limited to SPB and VIPS before the open.

With a raging virus, very limited news, and a lack of major earnings today, expect the bears to have the edge and volatility to continue. Still, with the prospect of MRNA reporting initial effectiveness results (based on 54 patients) sometime in the next few days, the volatility could be on both sides. We need to remember that this is Friday and there is a long news cycle ahead. Don’t get caught unprepared come Monday morning.

Don’t chase the moves that you have missed. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is a deadly condition for traders. You don’t NEED to trade every day. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. So keep locking in profits, maintain your discipline, and working your plan. Stick to your trading rules, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MAC, DIS, EVRI, ROKU, XLE, KO, UPWK, GLUU. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus News Leads Markets Again

November 12, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up Wednesday and generally ground sideways the rest of the day. The DIA ground slightly lower, the QQQ slightly higher, and the SPY almost dead sideways. On the day, DIA was flat (-0.10%), SPY up (+0.76%), and QQQ led the way (+2.24%) on a bounce-back after a couple of days of rotation out of the high-tech names. VXX fell 2% again to 19.03 and T2122 fell slightly to 88.00. 10-year bond yields rose to 0.96% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $41.52/barrel.

The only major economic or business news revolves around the virus, methods to control the pandemic or vaccine trials. If you don’t like that sort of news, this post will not please you.

The virus continues its massive surge. Wednesday saw another record 142,906 new cases and 1,479 deaths. This raised the totals to 10,708,728 confirmed cases and 247,398 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases to 129,475 while the average deaths rose to 1,080/day. In sum, hospitals nationwide are coming under strain as they now are nearing capacity. As an example, El Paso Texas has 20 mobile morgues (refrigerated semi trailers) in place as their system is overwhelmed. In addition, that city has begun looking for suitable brick-and-mortar overflow capacity such as an ice rink.

Wednesday, one of President-elect Biden’s virus advisory group said that a 4-6 week national lockdown could control the pandemic until vaccines are available and the worst of flu season is passed. Obviously, Biden would not have any authority until at least January 20 and even then there would be massive resistance from business interests and groups. For example, polls (depending on whether you believe polls) show that fewer than half of Americans would comply with another lockdown order. However, this advisor’s talking point may still throw a scare into markets now. In positive news, MRNA has reached its own first threshold of cases so that preliminary efficacy data can be released. So in the next day or so, expect another announcement like the PFE announcement last week (an initial view of the effectiveness of the MRNA vaccine.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly red. Japan (+0.68%) and Malasia (+1.32%) led gainers while the losses were widespread, but moderate. In Europe, we see the same picture as markets are mostly red, with a couple minor spots of green. Among the 3 major bourses, the FTSE is down 0.60%, the Dax down 0.96%, and the CAC down 1.12% at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US futures are also pointing to small gaps at the open. The DIA is implying a -0.60% loss, the SPY implying a 0.32% loss, and the QQQ implying a +0.18% gain at the open as of now.

The major economic news for Thursday is limited to Oct. Core CPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), Oct. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and a Fed Speaker (Williams at 2 pm). Major earnings reports include ENR, IGT, MTOR, PDD, SBH, TCEHY, and TDG before the open. Then after the close AMAT, CSCO, and DIS report.

Volatility is likely to continue. A lack of hard news is likely to be filled with speculation over the pandemic. mitigation measures, and vaccine hopes. Remember to not get caught up chasing moves that you have missed. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is a deadly condition for traders. You don’t NEED to trade every day. There will always be either another stock setup down the road. So keep locking in profits and maintain your discipline. Stick to your trading rules, follow the trend, and respect support and resistance.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SIRI, PZZA, MRNA, INTC, GILD, CRUS, ACMR, ABT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching