Markets opened flat on Thursday.  SPY opened 0.02% higher, DIA opened up 0.11%, and QQQ opened down 0.02%. From there, all three major index ETFs rallied steadily, reaching the highs of the day at 11:10 a.m.  At that point, all three sold off more slowly, recrossing the open and reaching a low at 2:20 p.m.  Then SPY and QQQ bounced modestly for 30 minutes before selling off again.  Meanwhile, DIA bounced with more strength but then also sold off harder. In all three major index ETFs, the biggest candle of the day was a sharp drop the last 5 minutes.  This action gave us black, inverted Hammer type candles (not Shooting Stars because there was no gap higher) in all three of those ETFs.  This gave us new all-time highs, but not new all-time high closes in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  This happened on less than average volume in all three.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Basic Materials (-0.59%) and Industrials (-0.57%) out front leading the majority of sectors lower.  Meanwhile, the Consumer Defensive (+1.12%) sector was the biggest mover and held up far better than any other sector.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.21%, DIA lost 0.02%, and QQQ lost 0.20%.  VXX was flat to close at 11.51 and T2122 dropped but remains well into its overbought territory to close at 88.64.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.379% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.84% to close at $79.29 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a mostly “dead money” day with a modest morning move higher followed the a slightly stronger selloff in the afternoon. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included April Building Permits, which came in lower than expected at 1.440 million (compared to a forecast of 1.480 million and the March 1.485 million reading).  On the start side, April Housing Starts were up but lower than predicted at 1.360 million (versus the forecast of 1.420 million but up from March’s 1.287 million value).  At the same time, the April Import Price Index was up sharply to +0.9% (compared to a +0.2% forecast but up less from the March +0.6% reading).  The other side of trade, the April Export Price Index, was also higher than anticipated at +0.5% (versus a +0.4% forecast and well up from March’s +0.1% value).  On the Unemployment front, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were a bit higher than predicted at 222k (compared to a 219k forecast but also down from last week’s 232k reading).  As far as ongoing claims are concerned, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than expected at 1,794k (versus a 1,780k forecast and 1,781k number the prior week).  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in lower than anticipated at 4.5 (compared to a +7.7 forecast and down significantly from April’s +15.5 number).  Later, April Industrial Production (month-on-month) was lower than predicted at 0.0% (versus a +0.1% forecast and March reading).  After the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was down $49 billion from $7.353 trillion to $7.304 trillion.

In Fed speak news, on Thursday, NY Fed President Williams acknowledged and said that he welcomes the CPI data. He also discounted the idea of any rate hike. However, he also said wants to see more before any cut in rates.  Williams said, “I don’t see any need to tighten monetary policy today … Monetary policy is restrictive and is in a good place.”  Later, Cleveland Fed President Mester echoed other FOMC comments saying, “I now believe that it will take longer to reach our 2% goal than I previously thought.”  She added, “We will need to accumulate further data over the coming months to have a clearer picture of the inflation outlook (before cutting rates).”  Later, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he sees the ongoing disinflation leading to a potential rate cut.  However, he said nothing was locked in, there was no timetable, and many things could happen. Bostic said, “one data point is not a trend, and said there are a number of different scenarios that could yet play out on the inflation front.” 

After the close, AMAT, CPRT, DXC, GLOB and TTWO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, FLO missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, SPR (a primary supplier to BA) announced it is laying off 450 employees in the next few weeks.  (This is about 3.6% of the company’s workforce as of year-end 2023.)  Later, after the close, RDDT announced a partnership deal with OpenAI.  The deal will allow OpenAI to train its AI models (like ChatGPT) on content from the Reddit platform.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the US Dept. of Justice took the next step in easing restrictions on marijuana by proposing the rule that would reclassify that drug as a “class III” (as opposed to its current “class I” category).  The statement said that the FDA had found credible evidence marijuana can be beneficially medically uses and had no safety concerns that should prohibit medical use.  However, class I drugs (like heroin and LSD), pose major safety risks and have no proven medical uses.  Marijuana stocks soared on the news, even though it has been expected since April.  The announcement (rule proposal) begins 60 days of public comment.  Later, the US Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that the CFPB is not funded unconstitutionally.  This kills one attack on federal agencies by an extreme conservative group, famous for challenging agencies, federal regulations, and private diversity programs.  (This is a very significant ruling because the Fed, FDIC, Social Security, and Medicare/Medicaid could have all potentially been unfunded had the decision gone the other way.)  At the close, the FDA approved AMGN’s treatment for the most-deadly form of lung cancer.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side again as eight of the 12 exchanges in the region were positive.  Shenzhen (+1.10%) and Shanghai (+1.01%) were by far the biggest gainers while South Korea (-1.03%) was by far the biggest loser on the day.  Meanwhile, in Europe, markets were mostly in the red.  The CAC (-0.34%), DAX (-0.38%), and FTSE (-0.37%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a second-straight flat open.  The DIA implies a dead flat unchanged open, the SPY is implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up a bit to 4.398% and Oil (WTI) is on the red side of flat at $79.09 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday is limited to the April US Leading Economic Indicators Index (10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Waller (10:15 a.m.) and Daly (12:15 p.m.).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to HTHT.  There are no reports scheduled after the close. 

So far this morning, HTHT beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In miscellaneous news, the SEC (in a hat-tip to the efficiency of government) voted unanimously to update data breach rules for brokers, investment advisors, and other investment companies.  In vote, approved rule changes first proposed under the Clinton administration in 2000.  The new rules will require the regulated firms to have and maintain data breach programs to detect, respond to, and recover from cybercrime that accesses their customer’s personal information.  The rule also creates mechanism for companies to share attack data.  However, rather than be hasty, regulated firms now have between 18 and 24 months to come into compliance.  (So, it only took 27 years to get this done…unless the 2025 administration reverses the decision.)

In late-breaking news, the UK Competition and Markets Authority announced the MSFT and Mistral AI partnership “does not qualify” for investigation under British antitrust law.  This avoids a widely-speculated hurdle for the deal.  Elsewhere, after antitrust regulators nixed the acquisition of Figma (cloud-based design software) by ADBE, Figma has told employees they can sell their Figma shares at a company valuation of $12.5 billion. (That is up 25% from the valuation Figma used in fundraising in 2021.)  Finally, online retailer W announced it will open a 150k-square-foot brick-and-mortar store in the Chicago area.

With that background, it looks as if the market is continuing Thursday’s indecisive action, at least early. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket near flat and have strayed little since then in the early session. It is worth noting that all three are printing a white-body candle in the early session, but none of those bodies are significant enough to show any real strength. With that said, all three remains very near the all-time highs from early Thursday and are obviously well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains very bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is also bullish. And the longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned to “fresh air” with no overhead resistance. In terms of extension, as mentioned, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all well above their T-lines, but only QQQ might be considered too extended. The T2122 indicator pulled back a bit Thursday but remains well into the overbought area. So, more pause or pullback are probably needed, if for nothing else than just to take profits and gather a new group of Bulls (FOMO money?) for a next wave higher (if that is the direction). With that said, we have to remember that markets can, and sometimes do, remain overextended longer than we can stay solvent betting on a turn. In short, don’t predict, follow. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green at this point this morning with only META (-0.41%) and NVDA (-0.30%), which is the biggest dog of all, really dragging on the QQQ. Keep in mind that its Friday, pay day, and time to prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday was the Bulls’ Day from open with markets popping and following through on slightly better than expected CPI data.  (It was actually much better than was expected after Tuesday’s worse than expected PPI data.)  SPY gapped up 0.49%, DIA gapped up 0.42%, and QQQ gapped up 0.57%.  From there, all three major index ETFs followed through with a steady rally that lasted all day.  (DIA was a shallower rally than the other two, but steadily gained all the same.)  This action gave us gap-up, large, white-bodied candles in all three.  It is worth noting that all three printed new all-time highs and also closed at new all-time high closes.  Obviously, this means all three remain well above their T-lines (8emas).  This happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.99%) way out in front leading the gainers higher.  Meanwhile Energy (-0.26%) was the laggard and only appreciable losing sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.23%, DIA gained 0.94%, and QQQ gained 1.56%.  VXX dropped 3.92% to close at 11.52 and T2122 spiked up into the top end of its overbought territory to close at 95.44.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 4.342% and Oil (WTI) gained another 1.1% to close at $78.88 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was a big win for the Bulls surging higher from the premarket release of CPI data and continuing strong all day.  (There were no even appreciable breaks in the all-day rally).  With that said, having achieved the new all-time highs, markets are extended now.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included April Core CPI (month-on-month), which came in exactly as expected at +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and down from March’s +0.4% reading).  On an annual basis, April Core CPI was also down exactly as expected at +3.6% (versus a +3.6% forecast and March’s +3.8% value).  On the headline side, April CPI (month-on-month) was better than was expected at +0.3% (compared to a +0.4% forecast and +0.4% March reading).  On the annualized basis, April CPI was in line with predictions at +3.4% (versus the +3.4% forecast and down from March’s +3.5% value).  At the same time, April Core Retail Sales were just as anticipated, down at +0.2% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and far down from March’s +0.9% reading).  On the headline side, April Retail Sales were flat at +0.0% (well down from the +0.4% forecast and March’s +0.6% value).  Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Mfg. came in lower than expected at -15.60 (versus the -9.90 forecast and even from the April -14.30 reading).  Later, March Business Inventories were better (lower) than predicted at -0.1% (compared to a 0.0% forecast and well below the February +0.3% value).  At the same time, March Retail Inventories were also better (lower) than expected at -0.2% (versus the -0.1% forecast and February reading).  On the oil front, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a much larger than expected drawdown of 2.508 million barrels (compared to a 0.400-million-barrel drawdown forecast and even from the previous week’s 1.362-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed speak news, on Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari added his voice to the “higher for longer” FOMC chorus.  Kashkari said, “The biggest uncertainty in my mind is how much downward pressure is monetary policy putting on the economy…that’s an unknown.”  “That (uncertainty) tells me we probably need to sit here for a while longer, until we figure out where underlying inflation is headed.”  He continued, “It seems like there is more resilience in the economy than I had expected.” 

After the close Wednesday, BKKT, CSCO, and CPA all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. 

In stock news, on Wednesday, NFLX announced that its ad-supported subscription tier had reached 40 million users.  (That is up from 5 million one year ago.)  NFLX also said that ad-tier subscribers account for more than 40% of all new sign-ups.  (NFLX has 270 million overall subscribers.) Elsewhere, it was made public that BRKB has been buying CB stock “secretly” over the last two quarters and now holds a $6.7 billion stake with apparent intentions of buying more of the insurer.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  New Zealand (+1.75%), Australia (+1.65%), Hong Kong (+1.59%), and Japan (+1.39%) led the region higher.  However, in Europe, markets are much more mixed with only six of 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.39%), DAX (-0.17%), and FTSE (-0.23%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are now pointing toward an open just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.05% open, the SPY is implying a +0.07% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.15% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.34% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat $78.58 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes April Building Permits, April Housing Starts, April Import Price Index, April Export Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), April Industrial Production, (9:15 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Vice Chair Barr (10 a.m.), Harker (10:30 a.m.), Mester (11:30 a.m.), and Bostic (3:50 a.m.).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BIDU, DE, IQ, JD, NICE, UA, UAA, and WMT.  Then, after the close, AMAT, CPRT, DXC, FLO, GLOB, and TTWO report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, April US Leading Economic Indicators Index is reported and we hear from Fed member Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, HTHT reports.

So far this morning, WMS, BIDU, DE, DDS, JD, NICE, and WMT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (WMT is of note, specifically reporting gains in online sales and noting an increase of higher-income shoppers.)

In late-breaking news, the European Commission announced META is now under investigation over whether or not the Facebook and Instagram platforms are built to cause addiction related to child safety risks.  (This action specifically noted the “rabbit-hole effect” built into content feeds and algorithms.  This being the case, it is hard to believe that GOOGL is not next in line related to YouTube with TikTok and the former Twitter to follow.)  

With that background, it looks as if the market wants to follow-through on Wednesday’s blowout rally, but is just too uncertain. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher. However, all three have also put in flat, indecisive candles since the start of the early session. (Perhaps traders are waiting on Jobless Claims?) As mentioned above, all three are at new all-time highs and well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains very bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is also bullish. And the longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned to “fresh air” with no overhead resistance. In terms of extension, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all now extended above their T-lines. The T2122 indicator has also pulled back up well into the overbought area. So, a pause or pullback (at the least) are due, just to take profits and gather a new group of Bulls (FOMO money?) for a next wave higher. With that said, we have to remember that markets can, and sometimes do, remain overextended longer than we can stay solvent betting on a turn. In short, don’t predict, follow. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green at this point this morning with only META (-0.51%) falling on its EU investigation news. Remember, there will be 4-5 Fed members speaking today. So, while they tend to follow the party line, any of them could cause a knee-jerk in the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped up modestly on Monday.  The SPY opened 0.33% higher, DIA gapped up 0.33%, and QQQ gapped up 0.44%.  From that point, the two large-cap index ETFs slowly faded the gap recrossing it by about 11:30 a.m.  Meanwhile, QQQ immediately recrossed the gap (by 9:50 a.m.). After the recross, all three ground sideways in a tight range until 1 pm.  At that point, we got a 15-minute selloff before the sideways grind in a tight range resumed.  This action gave us black body candles in all three major index ETFs.  The QQQ could be called a Black Hanging Man while the DIA printed a Bearish Engulfing candle.  All three remained well above their T-line (8ema).  This all happened on below-average volume in all three (far-below-average in the SPY and QQQ). 

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+0.65%) leading the gainers higher while Industrials (-0.39%) was the laggard sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.01%, DIA fell 0.18%, and QQQ gained 0.23%.  VXX gained 1.08% to close at 12.19 and T2122 fell to just outside the lower edge of its overbought territory to close at 75.00.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 4.487% and Oil (WTI) gained another 1.19% to close at $79.19 per barrel.  So, Monday was a gap-up, trade down, and then just grind sideways ahead of Tuesday’s PPI data.  One notable thing that happened is that “Meme stocks” trading came back in vogue.  GME gapped up 52%, was up as much as 120% at one point, traded in a 55% range, and it closed up 74 percent.  Following suit, AMC gapped up 20%, traded in an 86% range, and ended the day up 78.35%.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday was limited to the NY Fed’s 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which came in at 3.30% (compared to a April’s 3.00% reading).  

After the close, NATL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, TLNE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AHR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, STNE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Monday, as expected OpenAI released a new AI model called GPT-4o.  The new model reportedly is capable of realistic voice conversation and able to interact across text and vision.  (This comes a day ahead of GOOGL’s developer Conf. where that company is expected to announce its own new AI tools.)  Giving GPT-4o a search engine-like capability to compete directly with Google Search is the next step according to Reuters reports.  Later, GM announced its Cruise autonomous vehicles have resumed testing on public roads with its robotaxis in AZ.  (GM had suspended all operations in October after one of its robotaxis dragged a pedestrian, who was already knocked down by a human-driven car, in San Francisco.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, AAL, DAL, UAL, JBLU, HA, ALK and an airline industry group files suit against the US Dept. of Transportation alleging the agency’s new rule requiring airlines to disclose their fees in addition to just airfares is beyond the department’s authority. At the same time, the 5^th-Circuit Court of Appeals dismissed a Republican-led State lawsuit that had sought to block the SEC’s requiring investment funds to categorize and disclose their proxy votes on issues, including ESG matters.  (The three-judge panel concluded that none of the states had any standing to challenge the agency’s rules over listed company reporting.)  Later, META was sued by RFK Jr. and his superPAC, claiming Facebook was guilty of election interference for blocking a political ad.  (META claims the blocking, which lasted less than two days was a result of a mistake and was quickly restored as soon as the issue was found.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned toward the green side with only five of the region’s 12 exchanges in the red.  Taiwan (+0.61%), India (+0.51%), and Japan (+0.46%) led the region higher on the day.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are more evenly split with seven green and eight in the red at midday on very modest moves.  The CAC (-0.06%), DAX (-0.18%), and FTSE (+0.06%) are typical of a region likely waiting on US data to drop.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are just on the red side of flat at 4.479% and Oil (WTI) is likewise down slightly at $78.99 per barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes April Core PPI and April PPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We hear from Fed Governor Cook (9:10 a.m.) and Fed Chair Powell (10 a.m.).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BABA, BKKT, CGAU, HD, IGT, MNSO, ONON, SE, SONY, and TCEHY.  Then, after the close, NXT and NU report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, April Core CPI, April CPI, April Core Retail Sales, April Retail Sales, NY Empire State Mfg., March Business Inventories, March Retail Inventories, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory are reported.  We also hear from Fed member Bowman speaks.  On Thursday, we get April Building Permits, April Housing Starts, April Import Price Index, April Export Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, April Industrial Production, Fed Balance Sheet and we hear from Fed members Vice Chair Barr, Mester, and Bostic.  Finally, on Friday, April US Leading Economic Indicators Index is reported and we hear from Fed member Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, DOLE, CSCO, CPA, GRAB, and ZTO repot.  On Thursday, we hear from BIDU, DE, IQ, JD, NICE, UA, UAA, WMT, AMAT, CPRT, DXC, FLO, GLOB, and TTWO.  Finally, on Friday, HTHT reports.

So far this morning, HBM, IGT, and ONON reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HD and MNSO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BABA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CGAU and SE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Sunday, Chinese April Inflation numbers (CPI up 0.1% while PPI fell 2.5%) were released which, in turn, boosted Oil on Monday.  Markets interpreted the Chinese data as a recovery in progress…albeit a slight recovery so far.  Elsewhere, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) voted to overhaul the national electrical grid system.  The new rules are expected to expand transmission (by defining how to cover the cost of transmission), encourage more renewable energy, and require regional planning and cost allocations which have been woefully absent for decades.  The changes are expected to improve the resilience of the grid by allowing more transmission between regions, as needed (reducing brow and blackouts). 

With that background, it looks as if the market is waiting on PPI data (or maybe even waiting on Wednesday’s CPI data) before committing one way or the other. All three major index ETFs are within spitting distance of flat and on either side at this moment. In addition, all three have printed very indecisive candles so far in the early session. However, all three major index ETFs do remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is modestly bullish again now. The longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a percent (give or take) of all-time highs. In terms of extension, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all back near above their T-lines. The T2122 indicator has also pulled back to just outside the overbought area. So, both sides have room to run, if they can gain the momentum to do it. However, the Bears have more slack to play with in that regard. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning with only INTC (+0.69%) appreciably in the green. Remember, regardless of what knee-jerk we may get from PPI data, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10 a.m. and he always has the ability to reverse markets or cause volatility. Also bear in mind, CPI data comes tomorrow and traders may be waiting on that number more than PPI.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday gave us another gap higher to start the day.  SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA gapped up 0.32%, and QQQ gapped up 0.36% at the open.  Then, after about 20 minutes of follow-through to the upside, all three major index ETFs sold off.  The SPY and QQQ recrossed their opening gaps at 10:55 a.m. while DIA sold more slowly and did not recross the opening gap until 11:45 a.m.  After their recross of the gap, all three traded sideways inside the gap for the rest of the day.  This action gave us a gap-up, indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.   The DIA and QQQ printed Black Doji type candles while the SPY printed more of a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.  All three remain well above their T-line (8ema) and the SPY and DIA are both less than 1% below their all-time high (not all-time high close). 

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+0.46%) and Consumer Defensive (+0.40%) leading the gainers higher while Energy (-0.65%) was by far the laggard sector.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.13%, DIA gained 0.30%, and QQQ gained 0.24%.  VXX fell another 1.39% to close at 12.06 and T2122 fell but remains just inside the lower edge of its overbought territory to close at 80.47. At the same time, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.500% and Oil (WTI) fell another 1.14% to close at $78.36 per barrel. So, Friday was another bullish day where the gains again came from the opening gap and the rest of the day was meandering back inside that gap area.  This all happened on just-below average volume in the DIA and far-less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included May Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which came in lower than expected at 67.4 (compared to a forecast of 76.0 and an April reading of 77.2).  At the same time, May Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations were also lower than predicted at 66.5 (versus a 75.0 forecast and the April value of 76.0).  Meanwhile, the May Preliminary Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were higher that anticipated at +3.5% (compared to a +3.2% forecast and a previous reading of +3.2%).  At the same time, May Preliminary Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations also rose a tick to +3.1% (versus a forecast and previous value of +3.0%).  Finally, the April Federal Budget Balance came in positive but weaker than expected at a surplus of $210.0 billion (compared to a forecast of +$244.5 billion but far better than the prior month’s -$236.0 billion).

In Fed speak news, there were a raft of FOMC speakers Friday.  Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the FOMC is likely to cut rates this year as the economy slows.  Bostic said, “I still have that belief” (that interest rates can be lowered this year).  He continued, “There is an expectation for most of the employers I talk to that they will get back to pre-pandemic wage growth, and we’re hearing from pretty much everyone that their pricing power is pretty much at its limit.”   In terms of timing, Bostic only said, “I don’t think we’re going to know that for at least a couple of months.”  Later, Dallas Fed President Logan was less optimistic about a rate cut.  In fact, Logan said it was not clear to her that monetary policy was tight enough to bring inflation down to 2%.  Logan commented, “There are also important upside risks to inflation that are on my mind, and also uncertainties about how restrictive policy is and whether it’s sufficiently restrictive to keep us on this path.”  She continued, “As I think about appropriate policy, I think it’s just too early to think about cutting rates.” 

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said he thinks US monetary policy is “relatively restrictive” (meaning that borrowing costs are putting downward pressure on inflation).  He continued, “There isn’t at this time much evidence in my view that inflation is stalling out at 3%.”  However, he continues to worry about housing inflation, saying “We’ve been saying for some significant time now, ‘oh, housing inflation is about to come down.’ If that happens at the rate at which we think, I think we will start to see overall improvement, and it will be fairly clear that there’s an optimistic lane that we could ride overall inflation back toward 2%…If it doesn’t happen, then we’ve got problems.”  Elsewhere, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told CNBC that there is “a high bar” for any consideration of another rate hike.  He continued, saying there was no hurry, saying “I’m in a wait and see mode.”

In stock news, on Friday, DELL reported its customer portal was hacked and the data of 49 million customers (including name, address dell equipment, and order information had been stolen).  Later, AAPL apologized for its latest ad, showing a hydraulic press crushing many different types of electronics saying that its new AI-enabled iPad Pro would crush all other forms of content creation.  (This apparently upset content creator customers.)  At the same time, TSLA CEO Musk said that after the recent layoffs and elimination of its “Supercharger” group, the company will spend well over $500 million on expanding its fast-charging network in 2024.  (This comes 1 day after media reports that BP is interested in acquiring the TSLA charging network.)  Later, Reuters reported that sources in MCD said the company is considering launching a cheaper “meal deal” to draw in more “inflation-hit” customers. 

Elsewhere, Reuters reported Friday that OpenAI will announce its own Google search engine competitor (based on its AI models) today.  After the news broke, OpenAI CEO Altman tweeted that this will not be a “gpt-5 (a new version of its AI model), not a search engine, but something that ‘feels like magic’.”  Then, on Saturday, unionized workers at an AAPL store in MD voted to authorize a strike.  However, no date for the work stoppage has been announced yet.  On Sunday, PFE and AZN announced new investments in France that combined will be worth $1 billion.  Then AMZN rounded out the nice Sunday for France by announcing its own new $1.3 billion investment in facilities in that country.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA officially announced it has opened a investigation into 211k F trucks with fuel leaks from a secondary fuel filter that has been shown to have caused 12 fires among 27 complaints.  (This was separate from F’s recent recall of 42k SUVs with fuel leaks from injectors.)  At the same time, MRNA said it had been informed by the FDA that a decision on approval of its RSV vaccine has been delayed but a decision should be reached by the end of the month.  Later, Reuters reported that sources tell it the Biden Administration would implement new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles, solar products, and medical devices (such as syringes and protective equipment) this week.  At the same time, the CFTC proposed a rule Friday that would ban derivatives used to bet on US elections, natural disasters, and other major real-world events.  Later, a federal appeals (two GOP-appointed and one Dem-appointed judge) court panel dismissed a lawsuit brought by Republican-led states that sought to block the SEC rule requiring investment funds to categorize and disclose proxy votes on ESG matters.  (The panel ruled the states had no standing to sue the SEC.) 

Elsewhere, MSFT was hit with a $242 million ruling by a federal jury in DE in a patent infringement case brought by IPA Technologies.  The case was related to MSFT’s Cortana virtual assistant software.  At the same time, the Treasury Dept. announced Friday that it will hold an auction the week of June 3, to sell the stock warrants the government was given by airlines (AAL, DAL, UAL, and LUV) in exchange for $54 billion in financial assistance during the COVID pandemic.  Later, the USPS said it will seek a 25% rate increase for high-volume package shippers wanting last-mile regional delivery as of July 14.  At the same time, a federal judge in Texas blocked the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s new rule that capped credit card late fees at $8.  (US consumers pay $800 million per month in card late fees.)  This ruling was expected since the American Banker’s Assn. and Chamber of Commerce chose that district to file the suit based on the business-friendliness of judges there.  The next step is likely appeal to the New Orleans-based 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals (also very conservative).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side in modest trading.  Hong Kong (+0.80%) and Taiwan (+0.72%) led the seven gaining exchanges higher.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (-0.88%) and Shenzhen (-0.60%) led the five losers lower.  In Europe, things are more on the red side of flat at midday with only five of the 15 bourses in the green so far.  The CAC (-0.23%), DAX (-0.20%), and FTSE (-0.17%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a +0.19% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.30% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.485% and Oil (WTI) is up another half percent to $78.70 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Mester at 9 a.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CEPU, DDL, FTRE, HUYA, TME, and VTRU.  Then, after the close, AHR, PBR, STNE, and TLNE report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get April Core PPI, April PPI, API Weekly Crude Stocks and we hear from Fed Chair Powell.  Then, on Wednesday, April Core CPI, April CPI, April Core Retail Sales, April Retail Sales, NY Empire State Mfg., March Business Inventories, March Retail Inventories, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory are reported.  We also hear from Fed member Bowman speaks.  On Thursday, we get April Building Permits, April Housing Starts, April Import Price Index, April Export Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, April Industrial Production, Fed Balance Sheet and we hear from Fed members Vice Chair Barr, Mester, and Bostic.  Finally, on Friday, April US Leading Economic Indicators Index is reported and we hear from Fed member Waller.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from BABA, BKKT, CGAU, HD, IGT, ONON, SE, SONY, NXT, and NU.  Then on Wednesday, ARCO, DOLE, CSCO, CPA, GRAB, and ZTO repot.  On Thursday, we hear from BIDU, DE, IQ, JD, NICE, UA, UAA, WMT, AMAT, CPRT, DXC, FLO, GLOB, and TTWO.  Finally, on Friday, HTHT reports.

So far this morning, TME reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, HUYA missed on revenue (huge miss) while beating on earnings.  However, DDL and FTRE missed on both the top and bottom lines. 

In miscellaneous news, Israel began the next phase of its ground offensive in Rafah with tanks after intense artillery and air attacks.  US Sec. of State Blinken reiterated Sunday that Israel has no credible plan to protect civilians during their invasion of the city where Israel has driven millions of refugees.  This comes after Friday afternoon’s vote where 143 UN-member nations voted to recognize Palestine as a member state.  (25 countries abstained and only 9 voted against, including Israel and the US.)  In other news, China is gearing up for the first of its $139 billion ultra-long bond sale on Friday.  (That will be only the fourth offering of 30-year bonds by China in the last 26 years.)  Finally, Meme Stocks are back in the news as the Reddit poster who started that craze under the pseudonym “Roaring Kitty” posted again for the first time in nearly three years.  GME (+32.70%) stock is soaring in premarket on that news.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are pushing to follow through on last week’s gains. All three major index ETFs opened not far from flat, but have printed white-body candles with almost no wick since that start to the early session. All three major index ETFs remain well above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term is modestly bullish again now. The longer-term market remains very Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a percent (give or take) of all-time highs. In terms of extension, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all getting a bit stretched above their T-lines. The T2122 indicator is also just at the edge of the overbought area. So, we should expect a pullback or at least a pause soon, to relieve the overextension if nothing else. (Just remember the market can remain extended longer than we can remain solvent predicting a turn that hasn’t come yet.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL (-1.71%) really providing any drag on the market. Remember, we get more inflation data this week and have a number of Fed speakers. Any of that could potentially turn markets in at least he short-term.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened basically flat on Thursday.  SPY opened 0.03% higher, DIA opened down 0.12%, and QQQ opened 0.05% higher.  At that point, all three major index ETFs just bobbed around for 30 minutes, but then all rallied higher for an hour.  From about 11 a.m., all three meandered sideways until 1 p.m.  Then the two large-cap index ETFs began a modest rally that lasted the rest of the day while QQQ continued to meander sideways into the close.  This gave us large, white-bodied candles in the SPY and DIA as well as a white-bodied Spinning Top candle in the QQQ.  All three remained well above their T-lines (8emas).  This all happened on average volume in the DIA and far-less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+1.47%) led the rest of the groups higher while Technology (+0.01%) was by far the laggard sector.  VXX fell a little again to close at 12.23 and T2122 climbed back up well into its overbought territory to close at 88.98.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.455% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.76% to close at $79.59 per barrel.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.58%, DIA gained 0.91%, and QQQ gained 0.22%.  So, Thursday was another bullish day for the market, especially in the DIA and SPY.  (Both of those index ETFs are now within 1.25% of their all-time high, let alone all-time high close.)  However, QQQ continues its 3-day consolidation after Monday’s pop higher.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday was limited to the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in significantly higher than expected at 231k (compared to a forecast of 212k and the prior week’s 209k value).  That 231k was the highest level in more than eight months.  At the same time, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims slightly lower than predicted at 1,785k (versus the 1,790k forecast but up from the 1,768k previous weekly value).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was down $9 billion versus the prior week at $7.353 trillion (compared to the prior week’s $7.362 trillion).

In Fed speak news, San Francisco Fed President Daly said Thursday that there was “considerable uncertainty” about where inflation will head in the next few months.  (She added that she still believes price pressures will continue to ease.)  Daly said, “What the last three months of data have done is widen the confidence bands back out. (So,) “We’ve had three stubborn months of data, but I still see monetary policy is working.  I do think that we’re seeing, in a really positive way, disinflation.”  Daly did not express when she felt rate cuts might begin or exactly what she would need to see to support them.  Daly said, “I’m in a wait-and-see mode.” However, Daly also noted she is seeing “different signals” coming from various companies that say they are losing their pricing power as consumers become more selective.

After the close, COLD, AMN, DBX, EVH, GEN, G, HRB, MTD, RXT, RBA, and VHI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AKAM, IAG, PBA, and IOSP missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, SLF and SSP beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, FIHL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, Bloomberg reported that AAPL will power some of its upcoming AI service servers with chips it designed itself.  (The chips will be produced by TSM.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that F is now considering offering gas-powered vehicles (as well as hybrids and electric vehicles) in Europe after 2030.  This is a departure from the company’s 2021-announced plans to sell only electric and hybrid vehicles in Europe beyond 2030.  Later, Bloomberg reported that BP is looking to buy TSLA’s supercharger sites in the US after TSLA killed its supercharger group a few days ago.  No bid was reported, but BP previously said it intended to invest $1 billion in new US locations by 2030.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that both TMUS and VZ are in talks and close to acquiring parts of USM for more than $2 billion.  Later, BA locked out 130 unionized firefighters from its WA plant campus.  This came after the union representing the firefighters rejected a second contract offer.  (During the lockout, the BA campus fire protection is being covered by mutual aid contracts with civil firefighters from surrounding cities, further away.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the FAA bowed to industry and political pressure by saying it would delay implementing the recently announced “rest requirement” for air traffic controllers.  (The rule will require controllers to have at least 10 hours between shifts and 12 hours off prior to a midnight shift in the interest of safety.)  The new rules were scheduled to go into effect in mid-July but will not be put off indefinitely while a 3,000-headcount air traffic controller shortage is addressed.  The major airlines welcomed the news, which allows them to fly full schedules.  Meanwhile, CNBC reported that SBGI is looking to sell more than 30% of its broadcast TV stations and has hired MC as the investment banker for the sale.  SBGI received $1.56 billion in average revenue from the stations in question as a group.  Later, the US Supreme Court ruled against WMG by a 6-3 vote in a copyright infringement case brought by a singer.  At the same time, the NRLB issued a complaint Thursday claiming TSLA violated labor laws at its NY assembly plant when it banned personal electronics, records, storing, or sharing content as well as other acts that were part of the company campaign to discourage workers from organizing a union. 

Elsewhere, 27 Republican Attorney’s General filed suit against the EPA, hoping to block landmark carbon emission reduction rules for coal-fired power plants and new natural gas plants. (The rule requires power plants to reduce carbon emissions by 90% by the end of 2032, which those states say this is setting up coal-fired plants to fail and would threaten both the national electric grid and coal industry.)  Meanwhile, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and Dept. of Transportation held a joint hearing, investigating claims of “bait and switch” schemes (on fees and points) by airline-affiliated credit cards.  No specific bank or airline was identified at Thursday’s hearing, but an ongoing investigation was announced.  At the same time, the SEC began an investigation into BA for statements the company made about its safety practices and risks after the January ALK loss of a 737 MAX 9 door plug mid-flight. (Inquiries found numerous and wide-spread safety problems and resulting business impacts at BA since that event.) 

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.58%) was appreciably in the red while Hong Kong (+2.30%) was by far the biggest mover and led 10 of the region’s 12 exchanges higher.  In Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.67%), DAX (+0.51%), and FTSE (+0.71%) lead the 15 bourses in the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.24% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.38% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are at 4.463% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.72% to $79.83 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), the WASDE report (noon), and April Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  In addition, Fed members Bowman (9 a.m.) and Vice Chair Barr (1:30 p.m.) speak.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close. 

So far this morning, CMRE, ENB, HMC, and SLVM have reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CPG and CRH missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  However, AQN, AMCX, and DNOW missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, the President-elect of Panama vowed to “fix” the Panama Canal water shortage, by building large water reservoirs.  (This which would help the situation now where ship capacities and number of ships have been greatly reduced because of a lack of water for the locks.  The lack of water has been caused by years of drought in the region depleting the lakes used for lock water now.)  Elsewhere, ADBE Analytics reported that US online retail spending was up 7% during January through April, versus the same period in 2023.  In oil news, China’s access to Niger oil was blocked Thursday due to a border dispute.  (Niger is a landlocked nation.)  China had built a 1,200-mile pipeline to move 90,000 barrels per day of Niger oil to a port in Benin for shipping to China.  However, a dispute between Niger and Benin caused the latter to block oil flow across their land before it even began.  Lastly, real estate data firm ATTOM reported that one in 38 homes in the US are “seriously underwater.”  (They define that as a home having a loan balance at least 25% more than the property value.)  ATTOM reports this is more prevalent in the Southern US than in the other areas, but is clearly a national issue.

In property rights news that could impact companies, on Thursday, the US Supreme Court (by its Conservative super-majority) ruled 6-3 that police agencies do not have to provide timely hearings on property they seize.  This is true regardless of whether any crime is actually charged related to the property or to the legal owners, or to the possessors of the property at time of seizure. The underlying case involved cars seized by AL police where a drug crime was said to be suspected but no charges were ever filed.  The cars had not been returned or even a disposition hearing held related to the cars for more than a year.  In two of the cases, the owners of the cars were not involved in potential cases at all, were not present at time of seizure, and the suspected criminals (who were never charged anyway) were other people. Yet, the Supreme Court has ruled the agencies have the right to seize the property and there is no property right to a timely hearing to get property back.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are pushing to close out the week strong. All three major index ETFs gapped up to start the premarket with QQQ giving the most follow-through after that start. The two large-cap ETFs are more indecisive (although white-bodied) after the gap to start the early session. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend remains bullish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways but is leaning toward the bullish again now. The longer-term market remains Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a couple percent of all-time highs. Overall, the character of the market is bullish but gappy. In terms of extension, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ are all getting a bit stretched above their T-lines. The T2122 indicator is also back well into its overbought area. So, we should expect a pause or pullback soon, to relieve overextension if nothing else. (Just remember the market can remain extended longer than we can remain solvent predicting a turn that hasn’t come yet.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning with only GOOGL dragging behind (perhaps on the reports of employee unrest related to blow-out quarters, job cuts, and moving jobs overseas to reduce payroll). Finally, remember that it’s Friday, Pay Day, and time to prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday gave us a gap lower at the open.  SPY gapped down 0.37%, DIA opened just 0.10% lower, and QQQ gapped down 0.58%.  However, this was a Bear trap with all three major index ETFs immediately rallying.  SPY and QQQ recrossed its morning gap and reached their highs at 10:50 a.m.  From there, both of those ETFs ground sideways the rest of the day.  However, DIA rallied slower but continuously until the last 10 minutes where it took profits.  This action gave us a bullish engulfing signal in the DIA and gap-down, large-body white candles with an upper wick in QQQ and to a smaller-wick extent the SPY.  All three remain well above their T-lines (8emas).  This all happened on far lower than average volume in all three of those major index ETFs.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green and the other five in the red.  The Utilities (+0.78%) led the green sectors higher while Healthcare (-0.63%) led the red side lower.  VXX fell a little more than a percent to close at 12.28 and T2122 dropped back out of its overbought territory to the top of the mid-range to close at 72.81.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.498% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.05% to close at $79.20 per barrel.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.01%, DIA gained 0.45%, and QQQ lost 0.06%.  So, Wednesday, was largely a nothing day in the broader SPY and QQQ index ETFs, but was another modestly bullish day for DIA. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which had a slightly smaller-than-expected inventory drawdown that was expected at -1.362 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 1.430 million barrels and far below the prior week’s 7.265-million-barrel inventory build.

In Fed speak news, Boston Fed President Collins repeated the obvious, saying that the economy needs to cool for us to get back to the FOMC’s 2% inflation target.  Collins said, “A slowdown in activity will be needed to ensure that demand is better aligned with supply for inflation to return (to target) durably.”  She went on to explain that this means the Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra will, in fact, need to come to pass…just as the Fed has been saying since last year.  She said, “the recent upward surprises to activity and inflation suggest the likely need to keep policy at its current level until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”  Finally, Collins reiterated the “data driven” view of the Fed, saying “there is no pre-set path for policy – it requires decisions based on a methodical, holistic assessment of wide-ranging information.”  Meanwhile, Fed Governor Cook said US households, banks, and companies are all largely in solid shape financially.  Cook said even the commercial real estate sector isn’t in bad shape, saying it poses “sizable but manageable” risks and even then only to certain regional banks with high concentrations of commercial real estate loans.  She said, Fed supervisors were also “working closely” with those banks that either suffered losses in the book value of some assets or who hold large amounts of loans secured by commercial real estate that may have lost value.

After the close, ABNB, AMC, APP, ARM, CART, CENTA, CENT, CAKE, CXW, EXAS, FLNC, HUBS, JXN, LNW, MFC, MMS, MKSI, MRC, HLI, HOOD, NTR, PAAS, SBGI, SNEX, STN, TKO, TSE, TTD, VSTO, WTS, and WES all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ATO, CE, CPAY, CTLT, NWSA, SSRM, STE, RUN, and MODG missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COMP, ET, FG, FNF, MATV, RGLD, and TTEC all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, CAPL, DOX, and QDEL missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that WBD is planning a cost-cutting program that will include an undetermined number of job cuts as well as a price hike for its MAX streaming platform.  Later, GM announced it will end the production of its gasoline-powered Chevrolet Malibu model later this year in order to produce more electric vehicles.  (More than 10 million Malibus have been sold since its introduction in 1964.)  At the same time, BA announced that a crewed flight of its Starliner space capsule had been pushed back at least 10 more days.  (The first crewed flight had been scheduled for Tuesday, but pushed back to Wednesday.  Now it will be delayed at least another 10 days.)  Meanwhile, TSLA announced it has told all employees at its Berline plant to stay home Friday, due to expected protests against the expansion of the company’s plant. Later, MSFT said it will close its software development operations in Nigeria.  (That operation was opened in 2022 and was the company’s largest operation in Africa.)  After the close, WBD and DIS announced they had agreed to bundle their Disney+, Hulu, and Max streaming services starting this summer. (No pricing or exact date was announced, only the agreement that had previously been reported as under discussion.) Also after the close, there was bad blood in the air as GOOGL employees grilled top executives over the poor morale as the company has reported another blowout quarter…but also laid off a bunch of employees, blew up entire groups, and openly stated they plan to let higher-cost US employees go to move development to lower-priced labor countries.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, three insurance companies rejected CVX’s $57 million claim related to an Iranian-seized oil cargo.  The three companies filed suit in US federal court asking that the court uphold their determination that the Iranian seizure did not constitute a “war risk” loss.  At the same time, Reuters reported that US Dept. of Justice prosecutors are evaluating whether to file securities and wire fraud charges against TSLA for misleading investors about their car’s “self-driving” capabilities.  (Many times, CEO Musk told conferences that TSLA cars could drive themselves from CA to NY with no human help within the year.) Later, Bloomberg reported that PFE has agreed to settle more than 10,000 Zantac cancer-risk lawsuits for an undisclosed sum.  At the same time, GOOGL announced it will fight the UK’s $17 billion lawsuit alleging the company abused its market dominance in the online advertising market. 

Elsewhere, US House and Senate negotiators agreed to a deal that will codify the recent Dept. of Transportation rules requiring airlines to ensure quick and automatic refunds for canceled flights and fees for services not available.  (US airlines had opposed both the bill and DOT rules.)  At the same time, Turkey’s competition board fined META $37.2 million related to two data-sharing probes.  Later, a group representing SPOT and other music streaming platforms urged the European Commission to reject AAPL’s proposal for complying with the antitrust case ruling against the company in March.  At the same time, HYMTF (Hyundai) and Kia agreed to pay $335k to settle charges it had illegally repossessed 26 vehicles belonging to US military members on active duty.  After the close, a federal judge grilled the head of AAPL’s App Store about whether the company is violating the judge’s order to allow alternative payment options.  The judge said AAPL has set up what seemed to be a series of exasperating hurdles meant to discourage consumers from buying Apps by any way other than through its app store (where AAPL gets a 30% cut).  The tone of the questioning showed frustration and skepticism about AAPL’s complying with the court’s orders.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  India (-1.55%), South Korea (-1.20%), and Australia (-1.06%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape at midday with mixed bourses that lean toward the green side.  Belgium (-1.08%) is the biggest mover, but the CAC (+0.15%), DAX (+0.47%), and FTSE (+0.43%) lead the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.22% open, the SPY is implying a -0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 4.512% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.78% to $79.60 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  In addition, Fed member Daly speaks at 2 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open on ADV, ALE, AZUL, BERY, CSIQ, CRL, COMM, CEG, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, HBI, HGV, H, ICL, IHRT, IBP, KELYA, NXST, NOMD, PZZA, PLTK, ACDC, RPRX, RBLX, SBH, SN, SOLV, SPB, TPR, TEF, TIXT, VTNR, VTRS, WBD, and WMG. Then, after the close, AKAM, COLD, AMN, BAP, DBX, SSP, EVH, FIHL, GEN, G, HRB, IAG, IOSP, MTD, PBA, RXT, RBA, and SLF report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, the WASDE report, and April Federal Budget Balance as well as Fed members Bowman and Vice Chair Barr speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW report.

In miscellaneous news, a cyberattack disrupted “clinical operations” at major non-profit healthcare provider Ascension Wednesday.  (Ascension operates 140 hospitals and 40 “senior living” facilities across 19 states.)  In politics, MAGA extremist MTG made a surprise motion to vacate the Speaker again.  However, the House voted resoundingly to kill her motion (table it) by a 359-43 vote.  (Only 11 MAGA Republicans, including MTG, voted for the motion along with 32 Democrats.  Meanwhile, 196 Republicans and 163 Democrats voted to table her proposal.)  Meanwhile, a UK-based think tank (Ember) reported Wednesday that 30% of global electricity was generated by renewable sources in 2023.  (This included Hydropower, which fell as a percentage but was still by far the largest renewable source, Wind, and Solar.)  Interestingly, China was the leader, generating nearly 10 times more renewable energy (279.6 Terawatt Hours) than the second-largest producer (Brazil at 35.7 TWh).  The US was in the fourth spot at 24 TWh of renewable electric produced in 2023. 

So far this morning, AVAH, CSIQ, CRL, CCO, COMM, EPAM, ICL, IBP, KELYA, SN, SOLV, SPB, VTNR, and WMG all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BERY, CEG, HBI, HGV, NXST, PZZA, RPRX, TAK, TPR, and TIXT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EVRG, FOUR, and USFD reported beats on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ADV, ALE, H, NOMD, SBH, VTRS, and WBD missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks as if markets are heading toward an indecisive, if slightly bearish open. All three major index ETFs started the premarket with a modest gap down. However, all three have also put in white-bodied candles in the early session as the Bulls push back toward even. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways but is leaning toward the bullish again now. The longer-term market remains Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a few percent of all-time highs. Overall, the character of the market is gappy and more than a bit volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are “too far” extended above their T-line. The T2122 indicator has pulled back a bit, outside of its overbought area. So, while both sides still have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning putting a considerable drag on the QQQ and SPY. Again, keep in mind that this is not a heavy news week but we do have a lot of earnings reports. Perhaps more importantly, there are several Fed speakers and undoubtedly a few others will also pop off. Any of those statements could swing markets, especially as Bulls are now dreaming of Fed rate cuts again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened just modestly higher Tuesday. SPY opened 0.18% higher, DIA started 0.19% higher, and QQQ opened up +0.08%.  From there, all three major index ETFs ground sideways the first hour.  At that point DIA started a long, very modest selloff that finally recrossed the opening gap at 2:30 p.m.  From there DIA ground along the prior close level before heading back to the open level during the last hour. Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ both continued sideways until 1:30 p.m.  Then, those two followed DIA but with a bit sharper selloff before grinding sideways along the previous close after 2:30 p.m. until a rally the last 15 minutes took both back up to the opening level.  This action gave us, Doji candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and DIA gapped just a bit higher before printing the Doji while QQQ opened flat and printed its own Doji.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with the Consumer Defensive (+1.01%) group leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Cyclical (-0.74%) was the weakest sector by half of a percent.  VXX was flat and remains at 12.41 and T2122 pulled back a bit but remains in the overbought territory at 84.80.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell again to 4.459% and Oil (WTI) was flat, closing at $78.56 per barrel.  So, again Tuesday, it was an indecisive day across the market with no real strength from either the Bulls or the Bears.  One indicator of the indecision is that the 10 big dog stocks were evenly split between green and red.  However, we should note that the biggest movers among that group were on the red side and also had the heaviest dollar move.  NVDA (-1.72%) traded $39.1 billion in stock and TSLA (-3.76%) traded $13.2 billion in stock.  Meanwhile, AAPL (+0.38%) was the biggest gainer with $13.1 billion of stock traded.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included March Consumer Credit, which came in FAR below expectations at $6.27 billion (compared to a forecasted $14.80 billion and the February value of $15.02 billion).  After the close, API Weekly Crude Stocks showed an inventory build of 0.509 million barrels (versus a forecasted -1.430 million barrels and far below the previous week’s 4.906-million-barrel inventory build). 

In Fed speak news, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said the FOMC may need to hold rates steady through all of 2024.  Kashkari said, “(In order to support a rate cut) I would need to see multiple positive inflation readings suggesting that the disinflation process is on track.”  However, on the other side, he did allay some fears by saying “The bar for a rate hike is quite high but it’s not infinite … There is a limit when we say, ‘OK, we need to do more.’ I think it’s much more likely we would just sit here for longer than we expect, or the public expects right now, until we see what effect our monetary policies have.”  

After the close, ANET, AIZ, CRC, CHRD, GMED, GXO, HY, IAC, ICUI, KD, KGC, LYFT, MASI, MTCH, PR, RNG, SU, TOST, TWLO, and WYNN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AGL, ANDE, ARKO, BIO, BTG, BHF, JKHY, OVV, OXY, and RRR missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AMRK, CPNG, GO, MTW, RYAM, and RIVN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, EA, and MCK missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AGL lowered its forward guidance while ANET and MASI both raised their guidance.

In stock news, on Tuesday, a Brazilian paper company (Susano) mad a bid to buy IP for $15 billion. The $42.00 per share offer was given to the IP board verbally and will be submitted in writing soon.  (IP closed at $36.92 on Monday and then at $38.84 after the news Tuesday.)  At the same time, AAPL held an event to announce new iPad models based on the M4 version of their in-house designed ARM processor.  Later, RCL announced it is trying to recruit 10,000 new workers to staff ships and its private destinations this year.  The company says the need to hire so many workers is due to record cruise demand.   At the same time, META announced it has launched tools for AI image generation for advertisers.  This comes after GOOGL announced the same set of tools in February.  Later, PNRA announced it is phasing out its “Charged Sips” line of ultra-caffeinated drinks.  (That line of products is the subject to many lawsuits claiming they caused health issues and have created significant bad PR for the chain.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that JPM has started its latest round of layoffs at the Vice President and Associate level of its consumer, energy, and healthcare units.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, a Spanish startup filed a complaint against MSFT with the Spanish antitrust regulator, related to MSFT’s cloud computing practices.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce revoked some export licenses for good such as INTC and QCOM chips that were to be shipped to China’s Huawei.  At the same time, Reuters reported that four sources tell it the US has held up the shipment of BA-made munitions to Israel.  (The sales will reportedly eventually go through, but are being delayed based on priorities such as shipment to Ukraine.) Later, LEVI settled its lawsuit which accused an Italian fashion brand of infringing its trademarked pocket tab.  (The terms of the settlement were not disclosed.)  Elsewhere, Chinese company ByteDance filed suit in the US, arguing that the recently-passed law (passed as part of the Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan aide package) is unconstitutional on a number of grounds.  (The law required ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US owner in the next nine months or cease all operations in the US.  TiKTok has 170 million American users according to the company.)

So far this morning, AFRM, BUD, BCO, BAM, CLVT, ELAN, EMR, GFF, LCII, LPX, TIGO, NYT, QRTEA, REYN, SHOP, SUN, and VSH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALIT, BR, EPC, HAIN, DINO, INGR, EYE, NFE, NI, and STWD missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, TEVA and UBER beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SATS, KMT, MIDD, ODP, PFGC, and RCM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Japan (-1.63%), Shenzhen (-1.35%), and Singapore (-1.08%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture taking shape with only three of 15 bourses in the red at midday.  The CAC (+0.81%), DAX (+0.34%), and FTSE (+0.25%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.05% open, the SPY is implying a -0.15% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.20% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bonds are back up to 4.488% and Oil (WTI) is down more than a percent to $77.54 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open on AFRM, BUD, BCO, BR, CLVT, SID, SATS, EPC, ELAN, EMR, FWONK, FOXA, GLP, DINO, IEP, INGR, KMT, LCII, LSXMA, LPX, MIDD, EYE, NEUE, NFE, NYT, NI, ODP, PFGC, RCM, REYN, SHOP, SWX, STWD, SUN, TGNA, TEVA, TM, UBER, VSH, and VST.  Then, after the close, AE, ABNB, AMC, APP, ARM, ATO, CE, CENTA, CENT, CAKE, CCU, COMP, CPAY, CAPL, ET, EXAS, FG, FLNC, FNF, FWRD, HLI, HUBS, CART, JXN, MFC, MATV, MMS, MKSI, MRC, NWSA, NTR, PAAS, QDEL, RGLD, SBGI, SSRM, STN, STE, SNEX, RUN, TKO, MODG, TSE, TTEC, VSTO, WTS, and WES report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, the WASDE report, and April Federal Budget Balance as well as Fed members Bowman and Vice Chair Barr speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ADV, ALE, AZUL, BERY, CSIQ, CRL, COMM, CEG, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, HBI, HGV, H, ICL, IHRT, IBP, KELYA, NXST, NOMD, PZZA, PLTK, ACDC, RPRX, RBLX, SBH, SN, SOLV, SPB, TPR, TEF, TIXT, VTNR, VTRS, WBD, WMG, AKAM, COLD, AMN, BAP, DBX, SSP, EVH, FIHL, GEN, G, HRB, IAG, IOSP, MTD, PBA, RXT, RBA, and SLF.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW report.

In miscellaneous news, a plague of leafhopper insects has infected Argentinian corn crops.  This insect, has the ability to reduce thousands of acres of corn crop to zero yield.  (While the US is the largest producer of corn, Argentina is number four behind China and Brazil.  A failure of the Argentine crop would cause significant impact on global corn prices.)   At the moment, Argentina is forecasting a 17% reduction in its corn production.  Elsewhere, US spot electricity and natural gas prices turned negative Tuesday in TX, CA, and AZ.  (Ample Western hydropower, moderate weather, and limited storage capacity were forcing many LNG producers to flare (burn off) excess gas Tuesday, rather than slow/stop well production.)

In other news, Hamas and Israeli negotiators resumed ceasefire negotiations Tuesday.  However, Israel began the new session by giving a Friday deadline for a deal, saying it would halt negotiations and initiate its “real Rafah operation” if a deal has not been agreed by then.  (That distinction was needed because IDF ground forces attacked and captured the Gaza border crossing between Rafah and Egypt.  That crossing is where 75% of Gaza aid passed prior to the war.  That crossing is now completely shut down again as famine looms in that city and the whole Gaza strip.)  It’s hard to predict how this will impact oil markets, with a return to talks a soothing sign while threats and continuing Israeli attacks not so soothing.

With that background, it looks as if traders are on the bearish side this morning. The QQQ in particular shows some follow through with the larger black candle being printed in the premarket. However, the two large-cap index ETFs opened the premarket flat and are printing more “indecisive candles” since that point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways (choppy). The longer-term market remains Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a few percent of all-time highs. Overall, the character of the market is gappy, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are “too far” extended above their T-line, but the QQQ is starting to push that level. The T2122 indicator remains in its overbought area. So, while both sides still have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so, the Bears have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning putting a considerable drag on the QQQ and SPY. Again, keep in mind that this is not a heavy news week but we do have a lot of earnings reports. Perhaps more importantly, there are several Fed speakers and undoubtedly a few others will also pop off. Any of those statements could swing markets, especially as Bulls are now dreaming of Fed rate cuts again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday was a bullish, yet mostly sideways day in the market.  SPY gapped up 0.51%, DIA gapped up 0.41%, and QQQ gapped up 0.43%.  From there, all three major index ETFs traded sideways in roughly a half of a percent range.  The SPY and QQQ both had a slight bullish trend to that grind.  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a more volatile chop to the side and had a modest bearish trend to that sideways grind.  A late-day rally took all three out very near their highs of the day.  This action gave us gap-up large white-body candles with small lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  Meanwhile, the DIA printed a gap-up, white-body Doji.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  This all came on well-below-average volume in all three of those major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were again in the green with Technology (+1.55%) once again out front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.09%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  VXX dropped another 2.66% to close at 12.45 and T2122 jumped up well into the overbought territory at 90.48.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell again to 4.489% and Oil (WTI) gained half a percent to close at $78.55 per barrel.  So, once again Monday, most of the market’s move came at the open.  After a significant gap, the predominate direction of all three major index ETFs was to the side.  Most talking heads seem to think this is chiefly driven by hope for a Fed rate cut soon.  However, it is worth noting that three-fourths of the way through earnings season, five of the six “Magnificent 7” tickers have reported beats (only TSLA has missed, but it missed on both lines).  This leaves only the biggest dog of them all (NVDA) to report on Wednesday.  My point is that for those who believe in those seven tickers driving the market, they’ve gotten a lot of good news recently.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  

In Fed Consumer Expectations Survey news, on Monday the NY Fed released results of its survey.  The report found that respondents are bracing for higher housing costs again in the next year. On average that group predicts home prices will rise 5.1% (over the next year) which is far above the +2.6% increase they expected one year ago.  However, five years from now, they see home prices only up 2.7% from current.  So, on average the group expects home price inflation and then deflation.  In terms of rental prices, the survey found respondents expect a 9.7% increase in rent on average in the next 12 months.  (That is the second-highest expectation reading in history and up from the +8.2% in early 2023.)  In terms of mortgage rates, the group now expect the average mortgage to be at 8.7% in a year and 9.7% in three years.  (This survey was conducted while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at Fannie Mae was at 7.22%.)

In Fed speak news, NY Fed President Williams said Monday that the FOMC’s next move is likely to be a cut in rates.  Williams said “Eventually we’ll have rate cuts” but for now monetary policy is in a “very good place.”  Williams did not offer a timetable for when a cut (next move) may take place. He also said the Fed’s shrinking of its Balance Sheet have gone well and have not rocked the boat.  Later, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that up to now the fight on inflation has been on the supply side.  However, to end inflation, the US will need to take a hit on the demand side.  Specifically, Barkin said, “We got a lot of benefit last year on the supply side,” … “I do tend to imagine that we’re going to need a little more edge off of demand to get all the way (back to target).”  He went on to say that he was optimistic that the current Fed Funds Rate was high enough to do the job.  Still, when asked where he felt the biggest risk to the economy was, Barkin replied “I still have the weight going toward inflation.” “It’s a stubborn road back…It doesn’t mean you won’t get back. It just means it takes a while…to corral price setters (businesses) into believing they don’t really have a chance (for price increases without losing sales).

After the close, ACM, ATSG, BCC, BWXT, CBT, COKE, COHR, CPS, FN, FIS, IFF, ITUB, VAC, PLTR, O, SPG, and VRTX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AL, FMC, GT, JELD, MCHP, OTTR, RRX, and WMB missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COTY, NE, PARR, and PRI all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AAN, DOOR, and OGS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SPG raised its forward guidance.

In stock news, on Monday, KKR announced it will buy Indian medical device maker Healthium Medtech from UK-based Apax Partners for roughly $839 million.  At the same time, Reuters reported that DIS and CMCSA are seeking to hire a third-party financial advisor to resolve their dispute over the valuation of Hulu.  (DIS will acquire a 33% stake in Hulu from CMCSA according to a deal struck in 2023, but value was undecided.  JPM told DIS Hulu was worth $27.5 billion while MS told CMCSA that Hulu was worth $40 billion.) Later, Chinese premium EV-maker NIO announced it will launch its first mass-market EV by the end of this month, in Europe, for under $30k.  At the same time, industry publication Electrek reported that TSLA laid off more employees Monday in its Software, Service, and Engineering departments.  (Employees received layoff emails on Sunday.)  Later, ALE announced it would go private at a $6.2 billion valuation (including debt to be assumed). This will result in a $67/share cash offer.  Elsewhere, tech publication “The Information” reported Monday that MSFT is training a new, in-house AI model named MAI-1.  The model, much bigger than any MSFT has trained internally in the past, is intended to compete with GOOGL and OpenAI.  (The project is being headed by the co-founder of GOOGL’s DeepMind unit.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, HOOD received notice from the SEC that its cryptocurrency unit has been “preliminarily found” to have engaged in securities violations and will likely face either “cease and desist” action, civil court injunctions, or other penalties relate to the broker’s listings and crypto transactions.  Later, the highest state court in MA began hearing a challenge to ballot initiatives proposed and paid for by LYFT and UBER, which would define gig workers explicitly as contractors, not eligible for benefits, minimum wage laws, worker protection laws, and tax withholding.  (No timeframe for a decision is available.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA has opened a new investigation into BA over inspections the company recently admitted its employees skipped on 787 Dreamliner planes in order to maintain production schedules.  The investigation will also determine whether the documentation submitted to the FAA indicated those inspections had been made and passed (if documents were falsified).  Later, a Us judge formally ended the US Dept. of Justice case against GS related to the bank’s work with corrupt Malaysian fun 1MDB, accepting the $2.9 billion in penalties GS paid.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that crypto “Super PACs” have raised more than $102 million to spend on the 2024 Congressional elections.  ($54 million of this reportedly came from COIN and Ripple Labs.)  Reports say much of this will be focused on defeating Democratic Senators Brown (OH) and Tester (MT) who have been critical of crypto.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the bullish side with seven of the 12 exchanges in the green.  South Korea (+2.16%), Japan (+1.57%), and Australia (+1.44%) were by far the biggest movers and led the region higher.  However, in Europe, 13 of the 15 bourses are in the green at midday with only Russia (-0.44%) worse than flat.  The CAC (+0.37%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+1.03%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open near flat.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a dead flat open, and the QQQ implies a -0.20% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.461% and Oil (WTI) is off four-tenths of a percent to $78.15 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), March Consumer Credit (3 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  Fed member Kashkari also speaks (11:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open on Tuesday include GOLF, AHCO, ALGT, GBTG, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BLMN, BP, BLDR, CEIX, CROX, DDOG, DK, DUK, ERJ, ENR, EXPD, RACE, FTRE, GEO, GTN, HSIC, J, KVUE, NJR, NRG, OSCR, MD, PRGO, ROK, SCSC, SRE, SPR, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, UBS, VVX, and DIS.  Then, after the close, KLG, AMRK, AGL, ARKO, AIZ, BTG, BIO, BRFS, BHF, CRC, CHRD, CPNG, EC, EA, GMED, GO, GXO, HY, IAC, ICUI, JKHY, KGC, KD, LYFT, MTW, MASI, MTCH, MCK, OXY, OVV, PR, RYAM, RRR, RNG, RIVN, SU, VIV, TOST, TWLO, and WYNN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, the WASDE report, and April Federal Budget Balance as well as Fed members Bowman and Vice Chair Barr speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AFRM, BUD, BCO, BR, CLVT, SID, SATS, EPC, ELAN, EMR, FWONK, FOXA, GLP, DINO, IEP, INGR, KMT, LCII, LSXMA, LPX, MIDD, EYE, NEUE, NFE, NYT, NI, ODP, PFGC, RCM, REYN, SHOP, SWX, STWD, SUN, TGNA, TEVA, TM, UBER, VSH, VST, AE, ABNB, AMC, APP, ARM, ATO, CE, CENTA, CENT, CAKE, CCU, COMP, CPAY, CAPL, ET, EXAS, FG, FLNC, FNF, FWRD, HLI, HUBS, CART, JXN, MFC, MATV, MMS, MKSI, MRC, NWSA, NTR, PAAS, QDEL, RGLD, SBGI, SSRM, STN, STE, SNEX, RUN, TKO, MODG, TSE, TTEC, VSTO, WTS, and WES report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADV, ALE, AZUL, BERY, CSIQ, CRL, COMM, CEG, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, HBI, HGV, H, ICL, IHRT, IBP, KELYA, NXST, NOMD, PZZA, PLTK, ACDC, RPRX, RBLX, SBH, SN, SOLV, SPB, TPR, TEF, TIXT, VTNR, VTRS, WBD, WMG, AKAM, COLD, AMN, BAP, DBX, SSP, EVH, FIHL, GEN, G, HRB, IAG, IOSP, MTD, PBA, RXT, RBA, and SLF.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW report.

So far this morning, GOLF, AVNT, BLDR, CEIX, CROX, DDOG, ENR, RACE, GFS, GTN, J, OSCR, ROK, SGRY, TDG, UBS, VVX, and WAT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ARMK, ATKR, DK, DUK, HSIC, NJR, NRG, MD, PRGO, TPX, BLD, and DIS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AHCO and GEO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BLMN and BP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, the largest physician-run hospital network in the US (Steward Health Care), which operates 31 hospitals, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Monday after failing to secure a new loan from its landlord MPW.  Steward has nearly 30,000 employees, including 4,500 doctors and operates 400 locations (not just the 31 hospitals).  Elsewhere, the CDC said Monday that it had asked state health depts. And asked that they provide protective gear to farm workers to reduce the risk of H5N1 bird flu transmission to (and then between) humans.  (There has already been one case of a farm work contracting bird flu from a dairy herd, which had been contaminated.  The case was mild, similar to traditional flu.)  The USDA had previously said that H5N1 had likely been circulating in poultry and dairy animals since November and was first found on March 25.  So far, test have found pasteurized milk contains remnants but remains safe for human consumption.

In other news, Hamas made news Monday by announcing they had agreed to a ceasefire plan proposed by Egypt and Qatar.  (Reports had said Israel had signed off on the deal before it was proposed.)  However, Israel said what Hamas agreed to was nowhere close to what they could accept…implying Hamas agreed to its own counter to the deal shown to them.  In the meantime, Israeli Defense Forces announced it has begun a “limited” ground offensive into Rafah (city of 1.4 million).  This includes the takeover of the Rafah side of the border crossing to Egypt.  While oil markets calmed on the news midday Monday, the IDF operation in Rafah (where explosions were heard Monday night) is likely to stoke oil fears again.  In the meantime, Israeli negotiators said they will travel to resume ceasefire talks as both sides work to blame the other for no halt to fighting.

With that background, it looks as if traders are undecided this morning. The two large-cap index ETFs opened the premarket flat and have printed mostly wicks since that point. Meanwhile, the QQQ gapped down to start the early session and then has printed its own indecisive candle. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways. The longer-term market remains Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a few percent of all-time highs. Overall, the character of the market is gappy, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are “too far” extended above their T-line, but the QQQ is starting to push that level. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is now well inside of its overbought area. So, while both sides still have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so, the Bears have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with the two biggest dogs TSLA (-1.46%) and NVDA (-1.34%) leading the QQQ (and probably overall market) lower. Again, keep in mind that this is not a heavy news week but we do have a lot of earnings reports. Perhaps more importantly, there are several Fed speakers and undoubtedly a few others will also pop off. Any of those statements could swing markets, especially as Bulls are now dreaming of Fed rate cuts again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw another significant gap higher.  The SPY gapped up 1.21%, DIA gapped up 1.28%, and QQQ gapped up 1.75%.  From there, all three major index ETFs wobbled to the side, reentering the gap and crossing above the open, but never straying too far from the opening price. This lasted the entire session.  This gave us gap-up, indecisive candles in all three.   SPY printed a white-bodied Doji, QQQ gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top, and DIA printed a black-body Doji.  All three are now firmly above their T-lines (8emas).  This happened on average volume in the QQQ and DIA as well as just-less-than-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.86%) far out front (by 0.75%) while Energy (+0.40%) lagged the other sectors.  VXX dropped another 3.47% to close at 12.78 and T2122 climbed to the very top edge of its mid-range at 79.25.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 4.497% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.08%, to close at $78.10 per barrel.  So, Friday saw all of its move in the opening gap.  Most of the market analysts seemed to think that a decline in jobs increases and a climb in the Unemployment Rate will help clear the way for a Fed rate cut.  After that start to the session, there were some waves but price oscillated in a fairly tight range around that opening price.  It was as if traders had decided to head for the weekend early.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included April Avg. Hourly Earnings (Year-on-Year) increased less than expected at +3.9% (compared to a forecast of +4.0% and the March increase of 4.1%).  At the same time, April Nonfarm Payrolls increased far less than predicted at +175k (versus the +238k forecast and dramatically less than the March +315k).  Meanwhile, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls also increased less than anticipated at +167k (compared to the +181k forecast and far less than the March +243k reading).  The April Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (the same as March’s participation rate).  Together, this gave us an April Unemployment Rate which increased to 3.9% (compared to a forecast and March value of 3.8%). Later, the April S&P Global Services PMI came in higher than expected at 51.3 (versus a 50.9 forecast but down from March’s 51.7).  Combined with Thursday’s Mfg. data this gave us an April S&P Global Composite PMI of 51.3 (compared to a 50.9 forecast and March’s reading of 52.1).  Later, the ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was lower than anticipated at 45.9 (versus a 49.0 forecast and the March 48.5 value).  At the same time, the ISM Non-Mfg. PMI also came in low at 49.4 (compared the 52.0 forecast and the March reading of 51.4).  On the cost side, the ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index were significantly higher than expected at 59.2 (versus the 55.0 forecast and a March value of 53.4).

In Fed speak news, on Friday Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) told an audience of bankers that she supports the current FOMC stance but still fears inflation risks.  “My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady, but I still see a number of upside inflation risks that affect my outlook, … While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be at a restrictive level, I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed.”  Later, after the close, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told a conference that the Fed’s “dot plots” (which are published once per quarter, showing the inflation predictions of each Fed member) need more context.  Goolsbee said, “the dot plot is just a collection of opinions without economic content … Because it can’t be connected to the economic conditions the participant thinks will justify that interest rate, there is nothing to tell us why they think this a reasonable choice.”   Instead, Goolsbee proposed “A matrix that anonymously matches the economic forecasts to the rate path for each participant would answer some important questions.”

In stock news, on Friday, ALK announced that it had received $61 million in credit toward future purchases of BA jets (in addition to the $162 million cash ALK got from BA) as compensation for the temporary grounding of all 737 MAX 9 jets earlier this year.  At the same time, Reuters reported that LUV will be forced to reduce the hours (and thus pay) of its pilots later this year as it grapples with a lack of jets due to BA delivery delays.  This is a problem, because LUV, like all major airlines has been trying to increase its pilot staff amidst an industry-wide pilot labor shortage.  Lower pay will hardly help the plans to increase staff.  Later, the New York Times reported that PARA will let its exclusive negotiation deal with Skydance lapse in the face of a competing bid from SONY and APO.  At the same time, XOM told Reuters Friday that after reaching a deal with the FTC for approval of its acquisition of PXD, the oil giant expects it to take between 18 and 24 months to achieve full synergies of the purchase.  (This will push XOM’s Permian Basin oil output by 1.3 million barrels per day with another 700k bpd added by 2027 due to integrating PXD technologies.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the Treasury Dept. gave automakers an extension until 2027 to remove Chinese-sourced trace minerals from electric vehicle batteries and still have their electric vehicles qualify for tax credits. (The announcement attributed the extension to the minerals being hard to source from other sources at this time.)  At the same time, GOOGL and the Dept. of Justice finished closing arguments in the antitrust case the US brought against GOOGL related to web search and related advertising.  Later, the FTC requested more information from NVO relate to its $16.5 billion bid to acquire CTLT.  At the same time, GS announced it had finally reached an agreement in-principle to settle a 2014 class-action lawsuit over GS trading in platinum and palladium.  (No terms were announced.)  Later, AMRX announced it had reached a $270 settlement (payable over 10 years) agreement over its involvement in the US opioid epidemic.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with eight of the 12 exchanges in the green.  Shenzhen (+2.00%), Shanghai (+1.16%), and Taiwan (+0.95%) led the region higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, 13 of the 15 bourses are in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.76%), DAX (+0.89%), and FTSE (+0.51%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.32% open, the SPY is implying a +0.33% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.481% and Oil (WTI) is up just less than a percent to $78.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Fed member Williams speaking at 1 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open on Monday include, AMG, AMR, BRKB, BNTX, CAN, JLL, SAVE, THS, and TSN.  Then, after the close, AAN, ACM, AL, BCC, BWXT, CBT, COHR, COTY, FN, FIS, FMC, GT, IFF, ITUB, JELD, VAC, DOOR, MCHP, NE, OGS, OTTR, PLTR, PARR, PRI, O, RRX, SPG, VRTX, and WMB report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get March Consumer Credit, API Weekly Crude Stocks, and Fed member Kashkari speaks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, the WASDE report, and April Federal Budget Balance as well as Fed members Bowman and Vice Chair Barr speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from GOLF, AHCO, ALGT, GBTG, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BLMN, BP, BLDR, CEIX, CROX, DDOG, DK, DUK, ERJ, ENR, EXPD, RACE, FTRE, GEO, GTN, HSIC, J, KVUE, NJR, NRG, OSCR, MD, PRGO, ROK, SCSC, SRE, SPR, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, UBS, VVX, DIS, KLG, AMRK, AGL, ARKO, AIZ, BTG, BIO, BRFS, BHF, CRC, CHRD, CPNG, EC, EA, GMED, GO, GXO, HY, IAC, ICUI, JKHY, KGC, KD, LYFT, MTW, MASI, MTCH, MCK, OXY, OVV, PR, RYAM, RRR, RNG, RIVN, SU, VIV, TOST, TWLO, and WYNN.  Then Wednesday, AFRM, BUD, BCO, BR, CLVT, SID, SATS, EPC, ELAN, EMR, FWONK, FOXA, GLP, DINO, IEP, INGR, KMT, LCII, LSXMA, LPX, MIDD, EYE, NEUE, NFE, NYT, NI, ODP, PFGC, RCM, REYN, SHOP, SWX, STWD, SUN, TGNA, TEVA, TM, UBER, VSH, VST, AE, ABNB, AMC, APP, ARM, ATO, CE, CENTA, CENT, CAKE, CCU, COMP, CPAY, CAPL, ET, EXAS, FG, FLNC, FNF, FWRD, HLI, HUBS, CART, JXN, MFC, MATV, MMS, MKSI, MRC, NWSA, NTR, PAAS, QDEL, RGLD, SBGI, SSRM, STN, STE, SNEX, RUN, TKO, MODG, TSE, TTEC, VSTO, WTS, and WES report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADV, ALE, AZUL, BERY, CSIQ, CRL, COMM, CEG, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, HBI, HGV, H, ICL, IHRT, IBP, KELYA, NXST, NOMD, PZZA, PLTK, ACDC, RPRX, RBLX, SBH, SN, SOLV, SPB, TPR, TEF, TIXT, VTNR, VTRS, WBD, WMG, AKAM, COLD, AMN, BAP, DBX, SSP, EVH, FIHL, GEN, G, HRB, IAG, IOSP, MTD, PBA, RXT, RBA, and SLF.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW report.

So far this morning, BRKB, JLL, and L reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AMG and TSN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CNA and THS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, SAVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

On Saturday, “Woodstock for Capitalists” took place in Omaha.  Warren “The Oracle of Omaha” Buffett spoke and BRKB reported a massive 32% increase (year-over-year) in Q1 operating income.  Yet, the company managed to report a huge 66% drop in net income for the quarter. As of the end of the quarter, BRKB was sitting on a record $189 billion pile of cash-on-hand.  During the quarter, BRKB reduced its holding of AAPL by 13%, down to (a paltry) $135.4 billion.  Still, AAAPL remains the biggest holding in the BRKB portfolio.  During his Q/A session, Warren Buffett said he expects US taxes to rise to tackle the country’s wide federal deficit.  Buffett said, “I think higher taxes are likely.” “They (Congress and the President) may not want to decrease spending and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we own…and we’ll pay it.”  He continued, “Almost everybody I know pays a lot more attention to not paying taxes than I think they should, we don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire.”  Later, in answering questions, Buffett made it clear that Greg Abel will succeed him as the head of BRKB, claiming that Abel is already handling almost all of the company business.  Specifically, Buffett said, “The number of calls I get from managers is essentially awfully close to zero and Greg is handling those. I don’t know quite how he does it, but we’ve got the right person, I can tell you that.”

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are working again this morning. The premarket started a bit higher and all three major index ETFs have printed white-body candles since then in the early session. Only SPY and QQQ show any wick and those are both small upper wicks at this point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bearish. The longer-term market remains Bullish but under pressure. Overall, the character of the market is indecisive, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is extended above their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now just outside of its overbought area at the top of the mid-range. So, both sides still have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green with AMD well out in front leading the charge. However, AAPL (-0.26%) is by far the biggest drag (probably on news Buffett reduced the BRKB holdings of AAPL) as the joy of the huge buyback program announcement fades a bit early. Keep in mind that this is not a heavy news week but we do have a lot of earnings reports. Perhaps more importantly, there are several Fed speakers planned and undoubtedly others will also pop off. Any of those statements could rock markets as the Bulls are now dreaming of a rate cut again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped up Thursday as traders rethought their late-day selloff from the day before.  SPY gapped up 0.76%, DIA gapped up 0.61%, and QQQ gapped up 0.94%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs faded and recrossed the gap by 10:10 a.m.  However, this was a Bear Trap with all three major index ETFs starting a steady rally at 10:15 a.m., recrossing the gap and continuing North and reaching the highs of the day at 3:15 p.m.  From there, SPY, DIA, and QQQ all sold off modestly the last 45 minutes of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied Hammer-type candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three crossed back above their T-line (8ema) during the session.  This all happened on less than average volume in all three, with QQQ have by far the weakest volume relative to its average.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.01%) far out front of Technology (+1.50%) which was far out in front of the other sectors, leading markets higher.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.93%, DIA gained 0.89%, and QQQ gained 1.28%.  VXX dropped 3.29% to close at 13.24 and T2122 popped higher and is now in the top-end of its mid-range at 70.16.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.589% and Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat, closing at $78.96 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a rebound day after Wednesday’s Fed indecision.  However, truly, nothing major has changed in the last 10-12 days as bullish moves are met with bearish moves and visa-versa. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included March Exports, which came in lower at $257.60 billion (compared to February’s $263.00 billion reading).  The March Imports also fell to $327.00 billion (down from $331.90 billion in February).  This gave us a March Trade Balance of -$69.40 billion, which was down slightly from the February -$69.50 billion value.  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected at 208k (compared to a 212k forecast but flat from the prior week’s 208k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were flat at 1,774k (versus a forecast of 1,800k and the prior week’s 1,774k).  Meanwhile, the Q1 Nonfarm Productivity was down slightly to +0.3% (compared to a much higher forecast value of +0.8% but only down a touch from Q4’s +3.5%).  However, the bigger miss was on Q1 Unit Labor Cost (preliminary) which was up 4.7% (versus a +3.6% forecast and greatly higher than Q4’s +0.4%).  Later, March Factory Orders were up to +1.6% (which was in line with the +1.6% forecast but up nicely from February’s +1.2%).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $40 billion reduction from $7.402 trillion to $7.362 trillion. 

After the close, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, COIN, CTRA, DVA, EOG, EXPE, FTNT, GDDY, HOLX, HUN, ILMN, MTZ, MELI, MSI, OPEN, OTEX, PTVE, REZI, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SEM, and TXRH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AES, DLR, ED, FND, IR, ZEUS, POST, SM, and X missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ALHC, BECN, CIVI, DKNG, LYV, MODV, and WSC beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  However, AEE, WTRG, MNST, OEC, and SWN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, CB told the Wall Street Journal is it preparing to pay a $350 million claim to the state of MD related to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in March.  At the same time, NVO announced it will be reducing the price of its blockbuster weight loss drug Wegovy amidst an increase in competition from LLY. After the close, AAPL reported that iPhone sales fell less than expected (down 10% year on year in Q1) while overall sales fell 4%.  However, AAPL also announced the biggest stock buyback program in the history of the market at $110 billion (a 22% increase over their record $90 billion repurchase program from last year).  AAPL share soared in post-market trading on the news.  Also after the close, AMGN announced it had scrapped plans for a pill version of a weight loss drug and will move ahead with an injection version similar to NVO and LLY drugs in the same class.  For what it is worth, the CEO of AMGN touted excellent early-phase results of its injectable weight loss candidate.  Finally, SONY and APOS both expressed interest in buying PARA for $26 billion in cash as the company considers a bid from Skydance.  Under the alternate offer, SONY would be the majority shareholder with APOS holding a minority position.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, a Russian court ruled that JPM assets held in accounts which cannot be transferred outside of Russia will not be seized.  The court said this covered $2.25 billion of JPM’s assets.  Later, the FCC told Congress Thursday that 40% of US telecom providers report they will need additional government money to fund the removal of Chinese equipment from Huawei and ZTE from their networks.  (Congress approved $1.9 billion and the telecom companies report $4.98 billion will be needed to cover the 39.5% of replacement cost that the law said would be covered.)   At the same time, SPR filed suit in US district court to block TX from demanding documents and conducting a probe of the company (which does no manufacturing in TX).  Later, RIVN reported that it received $827 million in incentive packages from the state of IL to help fund the expansion of the company’s operations in that state.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Dept. of Justice has launched a probe into how Chinese drug traffickers have laundered money from the sale of fentanyl through TD (TD Bank).  After the close, the USDA announced that WMT had recalled 16,000 pounds of ground beef due to a suspicion it is infected with E. coli. 

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.48%) led the gainers while Shenzhen (-0.90%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are much more bullish with 12 of 15 exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.53%), DAX (+0.40%), and FTSE (+0.49%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward another green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.79% open, the SPY is implying a +0.40% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.68% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.559% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.34% to $79.22 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include April Avg. Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and April Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), April S&P Global Services PMI and April S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), and Fed Member Williams speaks at 7:45 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include on Friday, ADNT, AXL, AMRX, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, CBRE, GTLS, LNG, CRBG, FLR, FYBR, GPRE, HSY, KOP, MGA, NMRK, NVT, PAA, PAGP, TRP, TAC, TRMB, and XPO.  Then, after the close there are no major earnings report scheduled. 

So far this morning, AMRX, BBU, CBOE, CRBG, FYBR, HSY, NVT, TRP, TRMB, and XPO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADNT, CBRE, OMI, and TAC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BEP and LNG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GTLS, FLR, GPRE, and MGA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MGA lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are gapping markets higher today as all three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher. However, with the exception of DIA’s significant white body, they have only printed indecisive candles since the open of the early session. All three are back above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bearish. The longer-term market remains Bullish but under pressure. Overall, the character of the market is indecisive, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is extended above their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now in the upper-end of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split with 5 in the green and 5 in the red this morning. However, AAPL (+6.02%) is by far the biggest mover and dragging the overall market higher on its massive buyback program announced last night. Keep in mind that we still have the April Jobs Report is likely to cause volatility or a change in market direction this morning. Also, don’t forget this is Friday, pay day. So prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service