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Futures Mixed After Gap and Fade Day

November 10, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped to all-time highs Monday on a combination of liking the Biden election victory and elation over the PFE / BTNX trial results. However, after the record-breaking and massive gap higher, markets faded that gap all day, which left us with big ugly black candles in all 3 major indices. The QQQ even printed a large Bearish Engulfing candle. On the day, SPY closed up 1.26%, DIA up 3.00%, and QQQ down 2.04%. VXX was down over 2% to 20.07 and T2122 remains deeply overbought at 91.39. 10-year bond yield made massive gains to 0.922% and Oil (WTI) gained 7.4% to $39.89/barrel.

Part of the day’s fade may have been related to realizing the PFE vaccine joy came on only preliminary data (94 cases), doesn’t include safety data yet, and the vaccine will not be widely available until Q2/Q3 (according to PFE Director Gottlieb). However, another potential cause could be Senator McConnell saying that with a vaccine now in sight, maybe we don’t need as much stimulus. CNBC also reported that with Senate runoff elections in January, it will be difficult for any deal to be done prior to those two seats being decided.

In miscellaneous business news, the EU has opened a second antitrust investigation of AMZN. Meanwhile, BABA is getting set for its Singles Day holiday Wednesday and expects that the addition of live-streaming events will raise the one-day sales to $125 billion. For reference, retail industry researchers estimate US sales on Black Friday were $7.4 billion and Cyber Monday another $9.4 billion.

The virus continues its massive surge. Monday saw another 125,000+ day for new cases, but only 632 deaths. Those numbers raised the 7-day average of new cases to 117,552 while the average of daily deaths is now 1,001/day. In positive news, last night the FDA gave emergency use authorization to the LLY antibody product which shows promise for having dropped the number of recipients who later contract the virus from 6.3% to 1.6%. LLY has a deal in place to provide 300,000 doses within 2 months of that approval. NVAX also gained approval to begin a phase 3 trial of its own vaccine candidate.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green. China took the only hits, with Shenzhen (-1.05%), Shanghai (-0.40%), and Taiwan (-0.35%) all down. Hong Kong (+1.10%) paced the gainers among major markets, but smaller markets were up significantly more. In Europe, markets are mixed, but leaning red (mostly the smaller markets). Among the 3 major bourses, FTSE is up 1.32%, CAC up 1.03%, and DAX flat at +0.15% at this point in their day. As of 7:45 am, US market futures are also mixed. The DIA is pointing to a 0.71% gap higher, but the QQQ is pointing to a 1.51% gap down while the SPY is flat implying a -0.15% open.

The only major economic news for Tuesday is Sept. JOLTS (10 am) and a Fed speaker (Brainard at 5 pm). Major earnings reports include ADNT, APD, APG, and GIB before the open. Then after the close, ENS, HI, PTVE, REYN, SMICY, and SPTN report.

Volatility is likely to continue with the futures suggesting further unwind of the high-tech lockdown plays, but hope among the large-caps with a potentially effective vaccine on the horizon. Remember to not get caught up in moves you have missed. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is a deadly condition for traders. There will always be either another stock setup or the zig-zap motion of the market will bring the one you missed back when it consolidates. Keep locking in profits and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RAD, WKHS, PSX, FOLD, OKE, MOMO. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Effective Vaccine Points to Massive Rally

November 9, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday was a rest day for markets after an extremely hard rally all week. All 3 major indices printed indecisive Doji or Spinning Top type candles. With little change from the Thursday close. On the day SPY was flat at down 0.02%, QQQ was flat at up 0.07%, and DIA was the “big mover” at -0.24%. VXX lost almost another 7% to 20.52 and the T2122 4-week New High/Low Ratio fell back to mid-range at 68.11. 10-year bond yields spiked to 0.822% and Oil (WTI) lost another 3.5% to $37.40/barrel. As said, on the week QQQ was up 9.37%, SPY up 7.23%, and DIA up 6.85% in what was the best week for stocks since April.

Over the weekend, the election results became clearer with the majority of the country recognizing a Biden victory. President Trump refuses to accept this outcome and will continue lawsuits in hopes that recounts and the courts will reverse or nullify apparent results. Up to this point, markets seem to like the idea of a split government with the Administration, Senate and House in different party’s hands. However, January runoff elections for two Georgia Senate seats leave a little bit of uncertainty about this apparent split government scenario. Nonetheless, assuming GOP victory in at least one Georgia Senate seat, prospects of a “blue wave” leading to major tax changes now seems off the table. So, the next thing that the market needs to figure out is what these election results will mean for a stimulus package either in a lame duck session or late January.

However, the main market news at this point of the morning was an early morning announcement by PFE and BNTX that their vaccine candidate is more than 90% effective at preventing infection 7 days after a second dose is administered (28 days after initial dose). There is no data available yet on short-term side effects, long-term health risks, or how long the protection will last. Nonetheless, this is a major step, and markets absolutely love what they hear so far Monday.

The virus is raging all across the country. Friday, we had yet another record high of well over 132,000 new cases and even the normally lower weekend numbers remained in the mid-120,000s. In total, the numbers show we have had 10,292,492 confirmed cases and 243,771 deaths. This includes 42 states with at least a 10% increase in avg. daily new case counts since last week (30 reporting a record high), 8 holding steady, and none falling. This record surge has raised the 7-day average of new cases to 111,226 while the average of daily deaths to 979/day.

Globally, the numbers rose to 50,856,631 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,263,784 deaths. Global record days on Friday and Saturday have led the 7-day average of new cases is 550,046 while the 7-day average virus deaths are 7,759/day. Obviously, this means more restrictions, lockdowns, and economic trouble, especially throughout Europe. Frankly, that should be in the cards again in the US but that does not seem to mesh with the desires of the administration.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board on the last-minute news of an effective vaccine from PFE/BTNX. mixed, but mostly green. Shenzhen (+2.25%) and Japan (+2.12%) led the rally, but the strength was wide-spread. In Europe, markets are even stronger as they have had more time to react to the news. At mid-day, the CAC (+6.41%), DAX (+5.31%), and FTSE (+4.48%) are all screaming higher. However, again the rally is widespread, with only small pockets of under-reaction like Denmark (+0.36%) so far today. As of 7:30 am US futures are also pointing to major gaps higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +5.06% gain, the SPY implying a 3.66% gain, and the lockdown technology-heavy QQQ implying only a 0.80% gain at this point.

The only major economic news for Monday are 2 Fed speakers (Harker and 12:20 pm and Mester at 1:30 pm). Major earnings reports include BRKB, HWM, MCD, SPG, and TGNA. Then, after the close IFF, NGL, and OXY report.

The virus, an effective vaccine, hope for more stimulus, and reduced fear of major changes from a split government have combined to make a very positive if volatile, environment for markets. Remember that gaps are gifts and very strong news is almost always tempered by a second thought at least in the short-term. Markets move in the zig-zap motion the vast majority of the time.

It looks like a screaming open today. You will be very tempted to chase, but unless you are already in, strongly consider waiting for some consolidation or pullback. Keep locking in profits and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase the moves you have missed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: STAA, UPWK, CDAY, AAPL, SLV, GLD, SWBI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Counting Continues as Virus Rages

November 6, 2020 by Ed Carter

Thursday saw another major gap up followed by a volatile day that left a significant upper wick (especially in the SPY) as markets gave back part of the gains at the end of the day. The SPY could certainly be seen as a Shooting Star type candle, while the QQQ was an indecisive Spinning Top Thursday. On the day the QQQ was up 2.61%, and both the SPY and DIA up 1.94%. The VXX was down again to 21.97 and T2122 climbed back deep into the overbought territory at 92.34. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 0.765% and Oil (WTI) fell to $38.54/barrel.

Thursday afternoon the FOMC held rates at their near-zero level and said the economy continues to recover but remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Chairman Powell said that the Fed was not out of ammunition and will “remain accommodative” with loan and asset purchasing programs staying in place. He went on to continue urging more fiscal stimulus as pretty much every Fed speaker has done for months.

The election continues to be the main focus of talk and news. As the counts continue, a razor-thin margin has emerged in all the “swing states.” At the moment, it appears like Biden is winning with slight leads in Georgia and Nevada. However, enough votes remain to be counted that half a dozen states are still undetermined. And, of course, this is all before recounts and legal challenges to the validity of major groups of votes play out. All told, the market continues to rally, perhaps on the prospect of a split government with the Administration, Senate and House not all in one party’s hands. However, there is no word yet on the resumption of stimulus negotiations.

On the virus front, we had yet another record high of new cases Thursday (by over 10,000 cases) at 121,888 confirmed. In total, the numbers show we have had 9,926,637 confirmed cases and 241,026 deaths. This record day raised the 7-day average of new cases to 96,454 while the average of daily deaths to 905/day. In fact, the only two states trending down are AL and TN. As a result, more states have tightened mask mandates, imposed new restrictions on gatherings, and extended emergency proclamations. RI issued another stay-at-home advisory.

Globally, the numbers rose to 49,169,894 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,241,870 deaths. This includes a global record day of 608,550 cases and 9,056 deaths, which has led the 7-day average of new cases to 523,344 while the 7-day average virus deaths is now at 7,338/day. Obviously, this means more restrictions, lockdowns, and economic trouble, especially throughout Europe.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green. India (+1.18%), Indonesia (+1.43%), and Malaysia (+1.21%) led the significant gainers. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (-0.77%) was the only significant loser among a handful of moderate losses. In Europe, markets are red across the board so far today. Among the big 3 bourses, DAX is down 0.86%, CAC down 0.71%, and the FTSE flatter at -0.16% as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are also pointing to the red side. The DIA is implying a -0.48 open, the SPY implying a -0.67% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.96% open at this point.

The major economic news for Friday includes Oct. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Oct. Nonfarm Payrolls, Oct. Unemployment Rate, and Oct. Participation Rate (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports include AES, CLMT, CQP, LNG, COTY, CVS, DISH, UFS, ELAN, HSY, IEP, MGA, MAR, MYL, PRIM, TU, VTR, and ZBH before the open. There are no major reports after the close.

Election uncertainty remains as does a wild-fire virus. The politicians are still focusing on and/or absorbing the election results. So, stimulus measures are not yet back front and center in Washington. Expect more volatility and remember that this is Friday. After the run of the last few days, we may see more profit-taking and hedging going into the weekend.

Stick with your trading rules and maintain discipline. Keep taking your money when you reach goals and don’t let profits evaporate waiting on “just a little more.” Don’t chase the moves you have missed, follow the trend, and respect those support and resistance levels. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IVZ, DRI, HCA, IR, TUP, FLR, CFG. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Election Result Closer, Virus Worse

November 5, 2020 by Ed Carter

Wednesday saw a major gap up and some follow-through on relief that the election was behind us. The tech-heavy QQQ that has led the way with a gap-up of almost 3.2%. However, the election has not been concluded as counting continues. Perhaps it was that uncertainty led to a selloff that lasted all afternoon left large upper wicks in the major indices. On the day QQQ gained 4.46%, SPY gained 2.23%, and DIA gained 1.41%. The VXX was down almost 9% to 22.35 and T2122 fell back out of the over-bought territory to 67.48. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.771% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 4% to $39.13/barrel.

The election continues to be the main news. While absentee ballot counting, recounts, and several lawsuits remain to play out, it is now looking like a split government in January. That would greatly impact the ability of a Democratic President to enact their agenda. It would also likely impact the amount and type of stimulus. Nonetheless, regardless of the Presidential election outcome, Senate Majority Leader McConnell has said that stimulus will be the main priority the remainder of this year, but unless something has changed the current Senate objects to anything more than small stimulus, while the market expects a large amount. This all may feed into what the Fed does and says this afternoon.

On the virus front, we had yet another record high of new cases Wednesday with 108,389. The numbers show we now have 9,802,374 confirmed cases and 239,842 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 92,702 while another 1,200-death day raised the average daily deaths to 894/day. Even with this a significant proportion of American society refuse to mask, maintain social distance or make additional efforts to wash/disinfect. However, in good news, experts expect any new lockdowns will help lessen the impact of flu season which is also now on us. A single test to identify both Covid and the flu has also been developed.

Globally, the numbers rose to 48,561,473 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,232,955 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is 516,520 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 7,111/day. Several more European countries reported new record-high new case counts Wednesday, including UK, Germany, France, Poland, Czech Republic, and Russia. Meanwhile, new national lockdowns took effect in the UK and Germany as Italy and Spain both expanded regional quarantines. In Asia, a third-wave of cases has started in India and South Korea has implemented new restrictions in one province.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Hong Kong (+3.25%), Thailand (+3.43%), and Indonesia (+3.04%) were the big winners, but all major Asian indices were up well over 1%. In Europe, markets are slightly more mixed, but lean heavily to the upside so far today. The FTSE (+0.23%), CAC (+0.92%), and DAX (+1.48%) are all green with Russia (+2.21%) and Denmark (+2.24%) leading gainers. The only three countries in the red are Greece, Belgium, and Norway. As of 7:30am US futures are also pointing to a very positive open. The DIA is implying a +1.35% open, the SPY implying a +1.73% open, and the QQQ implying a +2.58% gain at the open.

The major economic news for Thursday includes Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Q3 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q3 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), a Fed Rate Decision and Statement (2 pm) and the FOMC Press Conference (2:30 pm). Major earnings reports include BABA, ABC, ARNC, AZN, AAWW, BLL, GOLD, BCE, BDX, BMY, CNQ, CAH, CNP, CI, CNHI, COMM, CORE, XRAY, DISCA, D, DUK, GM, GLP, HBI, HFC, HII, IRM, KELYA, NXST, NTDOY, ODP, PH, REGN, REZI, TRGP, TEVA, THS, VMC, WCC, WRK, and ZTS all report before the open. Then after the close ADT, AEE, AIG, BKNG, BFH, CZR, CNDT, ED, BAP, CWK, DXC, EOG, FLS, HLF, MTD, MNST, NWSA, PBA, PFSI, RGA, RSG, SRE, SWX, SQ, TMUS, TDS, TSE, UBER, USM, and XPO report.

As the election count winds down, markets are loving the certainty that will bring. The market seems to believe that protracted lawsuits will not have an effect on future direction. Stimulus, the virus, and earnings are back at center stage now. Just be aware that the Fed does have a limit to what they can do this afternoon, but certainly nobody is expecting any tightening or ending of Fed bailout loan programs. So, while short-term volatility in likely to continue, the market seems happy to have the election (mostly) in the rearview mirror.

Remember to follow your rules and maintain discipline, Take your money when you reach goals and don’t let profits evaporate waiting to bag “just a little more.” Follow the trend, don’t chase moves you have missed and respect both support/resistance and your stops. (Bear in mind that a $100 loss looks great when you now have a $1000 loss.)

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, ENPH, ABBV, MSFT, RIG, FAS, IDXX, DVN. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Election and Virus Continue

November 4, 2020 by Ed Carter

Tuesday saw a gap higher and a generally bullish day although a selloff at the end of the day left large upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the day, DIA was up 2.02%, SPY up 1.73%, and QQQ up 1.73% also. The VXX fell 5.5% to 24.51 and T2122 bolted up well into the overbought territory at 89.22. 10-year bond yield spiked to 0.892% (a big move up for bonds) and Oil (WTI) climbed nearly 3% to $37.84/barrel.

The entire world (obviously including markets) were focused on the US election, large voter turnout, and how the counting process will go. As predicted, Trump both claimed victory and fraud as he promised to go to the Supreme Court to stop vote counting. However, short of banana republic tactics, the outcome of the voting in many states may not be known for at least days and court proceedings about the validity or suppression of many of those votes could last weeks. Markets, which had been heading up steeply early in the evening have pulled back and diverged sharply on this situation.

On the virus front, we had yet another day of well over 90,000 new cases as the 5 highest case count days have all been recorded in the last week. The numbers show we now have 9,694,176 confirmed cases and 238,656 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 88,915 while another 1,200-death day raised the average daily deaths to 871/day. 36 states are trending the wrong way with only 5 (AL, HI, LA, TN, and VT) showing a reduction in cases. Hospitalizations are also up sharply, particularly in the Midwest. Meanwhile, in TX, the state Atty. General filed injunctions to stop a city (El Paso) from implementing local lockdown measures. At the same time, El Paso is down to using its civic center as a field hospital and is using 4 mobile morgues (cold storage) brought in help handle overwhelmed facilities.

Globally, the numbers rose to 47,428,861 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,213,224 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is just over 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is 6,663/day. Much of Europe (especially the most economically dynamic portions of the continent) is now under lockdown again as they try to save their healthcare system.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly modestly green. Only Japan (+1.72%) and Taiwan (+1.04%) had significant moves to the upside, while only Indonesia (-1.05%) had a significant move down. In Europe so far today, Portugal (-1.24%) is the outlier as the rest of the continent is modestly green. The FTSE (+0.42%), DAX (+0.34%), and CAC (+0.68%) are more or less typical across the continent. As of 7:30am US futures (that had been significantly up) are now positive, but widely missed. The DIA is implying a 0.13% gain, the SPY implying a 0.91% gain, and the QQQ implying a 2.67% gain at the open.

The major economic news for Wednesday includes ADP Nonfarm Payroll (8:15 am), Imports/Exports and Trade Balance (8:30 am), Oct. Services PMI (9:45 am), Oct. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). In major earnings, we will see CLH, ES, HLT, PSN, PFGC, SMG, TA, and VRT report before the open. Then after the close ALL, UHAL, AWK, APA, EQH, BKD, CF, CTVA, DCP, ET, ENLC, EXPE, FNF, GFL, GDDY, HOLX, LNC, LUMN, MELI, OLN, PXD, PRAH, PSA, QRVO, QRTEA, STN, SUN, TRMB, and UNVR report.

Just as on Tuesday, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main drivers of the market today. While volatility is sure to remain high as the election count drags on and lawsuits begin delegitimizing results. However, there remains palpable relief that the election will finally be “over.” The next question the market will ask is when will the lame-duck government get back to delivering more stimulus? So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but maybe, just maybe there is some light at the end of this tunnel.

With this turmoil still in place, you have to decide whether there has been enough closure to reduce risk enough for you to get back into the election. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ALGN, MPC, PINS, PNR, CRBP, TXN, FEYE. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Wall-to-Wall Election and Virus News

November 3, 2020 by Ed Carter

Monday was a volatile and indecisive day gapping higher about a percent and ending near where price opened on the large-cap indices, leaving us with indecisive Doji candles. QQQ was similar, but faded the gap more than the others to give a black-body Spinning Top candle. On the day, DIA was up 1.56%, SPY up 1.12%, and QQQ up 0.22%. The VXX fell to 25.88% and T2122 climbed back to mid-range at 52.14. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 0.85% and Oil (WTI) surged 3.5% to $37.04/barrel.

Obviously, only the election, the virus, and maybe some earnings surprise will be making news today. While it is possible we will know the outcome of the election by tomorrow, it is also quite possible we won’t know for a week given the shortcomings of the postal service and ballot counting rules varying across the country.

On the virus front, we had yet another day of almost 90,000 new cases. The numbers show we now have 9,568,275 confirmed cases and 237,009 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases has reached a record of over 86,000 while average daily deaths are also rising at just over 850/day. The American Academy of Pediatricians reported Monday that last week there were over 61,000 new cases among children nationally, bringing the total so far to over 853,000. We are at record levels with 47 states showing increases in new case counts the last week, 26 states have deaths increasing versus the previous week. Yet the administration continues to deny reality along with a significant proportion of the population.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly green as they expect good news as the US election ends. Singapore (+2.21%), Hong Kong (+1.96%), and Australia (+1.93%) led the way. A similar story is playing out in Europe as they reach their mid-day. The FTSE (+2.00%), CAC (+2.01%), and DAX (+1.80%) are not only the main bourses, but lead the way today. As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to another gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a open up 1.60%, SPY implies a +1.28% open, and the QQQ implies a 0.69% gain at the start of the day.

The major economic news for Tuesday is limited to Sept. Factory Orders (10 am). However, major earnings reports include AGCO, ATH, BHC, BMCH, ETN, EMR, EXC, EEXPD, RACE, FOXA, IT, HUM, NSIT, JELD, JCI, LPX, MCK, SYY, TEF, TRI, W, and ZBRA before the open. Then after the close, ANDE, CC, DAR, PRU, SMCI, and TX report.

Just as on Monday, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main drivers of the market today. While volatility is sure to remain high, even with the likelihood of the President suing to influence the outcome of the election, there is major and palpable relief that the election will finally be “over.” Regardless of the election outcome, the lame-duck government is expected to deliver more stimulus. So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but realize we can see some light at the end of this tunnel now.

Like earnings, the election is an unpredictable, event. Consider very carefully how much risk you want to have on, even if you think you know how the election will go. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CARR, HUN, BP, MPC, CMA, URI, ALGN, NEM, MOS. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Election, Virus and Earnings Everywhere

November 2, 2020 by Ed Carter

Friday was another volatile, rough day for the markets. All 3 major indices gapped down and sold off early before grinding sideways from 11 am to 3:30 pm. However, a sharp short-covering rally the last few minutes of the day brought prices well up off the lows. As a result, both large-cap indices printed major indecisive candles and even the ugly candle in the QQQ left a substantial lower wick. On the day, QQQ was down 2.54%, SPY down 1.04%, and DIA down 0.57%. The VXX climbed 3% to 26.53 and T2122 fell back deep into the oversold territory at 9.17. 10-year bond yields climbed significantly to 0.874% and Oil (WTI) fell a percent and a quarter to $35.72. The downtrend continued as for the week, the SPY was down 5.56%, DIA down 6.45%, and QQQ down 5.39% in the worst week since March.

Obviously, only the election, the virus and maybe some earnings surprise will be making news the next two days.

On the virus front, the numbers show we now have 9,475,872 confirmed cases and 236,501 deaths. The national new cases per day exceeded 101,000 on Friday, with the 7-day average of new cases now reaching a record of almost 83,000 while average daily deaths are also rising at just over 850/day. We are at record levels with 48 states showing new case increases in the last week (31 states reported at least one record new case count day), 29 states have deaths increasing versus the previous week. On Saturday night, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told CNBC that “there’s going to be a whole lot of pain in this country with regard to additional cases and hospitalizations and deaths” as he said “we need to double-down on masks.” This comes while many continue to downplay the pandemic, insist the problem has passed, and rebel against mitigation and control measures.

Globally, the numbers rose to 46,932,503 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,206,776 deaths. The 7-day average of new cases is about 500,000 while the 7-day average virus deaths is over 6,500/day. In Europe, things are getting very bad as countries are shuffling patients across borders to find enough hospital beds. The UK entered its second national lockdown (through at least December 1) on Friday. France’s national lockdown also began Friday and Belgium followed suit. Germany also started a partial lockdown today. Italy is not yet ready to go this far, instead, imposing measures on gathering sizes and closing specific groups of businesses. Spain has not yet gone that far, using expanded regional shutdowns in an effort to stave off a national shutdown.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. South Koreas (+1.46%), Hong Kong (+1.46%) and Japan (+1.39%) led the gains on the day. Europe seems to be following suite, with large gains across the board so far Monday. The DAX (+1.93%), CAC (+1.93%), and FTSE (+1.15%) are good representations of the rest of the continent on upbeat date on the manufacturing front and hope surrounding the end of the US election. As of 7:30am, US futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a open up 1.58%, SPY implies a +1.34% open, and the QQQ implies a 1.03% gain at the start of the day.

The major economic news for Monday includes Personal Consumer Expenditure (7:30 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am). Major earnings reports include BCC, CWH, CDW, CLX, CNA, EL, FE, HSIC, JLL, LCII, MPC, MPLX, NI, ON, TEN, and WM before the open. Then after the close, AIZ, CNO, FANG, FMC, G, IR, LEG, MDLZ, NTR, OMI, PYPL, PAA, PAGP, SWKS, STE, RIG, WMB, and YRCW report.

As mentioned, the raging virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main sources of volatility in the market now. Even with the likelihood of the President suing many states to influence the outcome of the election, there is a palpable relief that the election will be “over.” And regardless of the election outcome, the lame-duck government will have no impediment to pass more stimulus. So, expect more volatility in the short-term, but realize we can see some light at the end of this tunnel now.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CTLRY, GE, KRE, WFC, CGC, FITB, PACW, CRUS, NXPI. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Virus Runs Wild and Tech Guidance Mixed

October 30, 2020 by Ed Carter

Thursday saw a run-and-fade move in the wake of Wednesday’s huge selloff. The bulls gapped the indices about half a percent, rallied all day until 2 pm, and sold off hard at the end of the day. This left all 3 major indices will large upper wicks and indecisive candles. On the day, DIA gained 0.43%, SPY gained 10.5%, and QQQ led the way up 1.73%. The VXX lost almost 8% to 35.60 and T2122 rose but remains in oversold territory at 15.71. 10-year bond yields rose sharply to 0.83% and Oil (WTI) fell nearly 3% again to $36.30/barrel.

During the day, Speaker of the House Pelosi said she wanted to restart stimulus talks. However, she sent a letter to Treasury Sec. Mnuchin saying she is still waiting to hear replies to several items of critical importance. Sec. Mnuchin responded that she had released the letter to the press at the same time it was delivered to him and therefore he concludes it was not a serious attempt to restart talks, but just a stunt. In reality, negotiations are moot until after the election since the Administration, Senate and House are all focused on electioneering.

After the close, AMZN, AAPL, FB, GOOG, and TWTR all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines. AAPL and TWTR both were both punished in extended trading on disappointments of one kind or another, while FB was flat and GOOG popped. It appears that overnight this led to worry among the tech-heavy QQQ traders.

Virus numbers continue to run wild with unrelenting growth amidst current local-only and half measures. The numbers show we now have 9,216,077 confirmed cases and 234,207 deaths. This comes after yet another record number of 91,530 new cases on Thursday with a 7-day average daily new case count spiking again to 77,773/day. Deaths also ticked up with 1,047 reported while the average daily deaths lag behind at 828.

Globally, the numbers rose to 45,429,027 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,187,582 deaths. With this said, beyond the US, Europe is the epicenter of the virus. Belgium reports an “absolutely critical” situation where the country is not only short of ICU beds but also health workers. In fact, the EU is now funding patient transfer between European countries in order to find beds and ease staff shortages. France’s new national lockdown begins today and runs through at least December 1. (They estimate this new lockdown will curb economic output by 15%.) Germany, who has reported a record number of new cases each of the last 3 days, has also implemented a partial national lockdown for the next 4 weeks. However, the wildfire spread is not limited to Western Europe as Russia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovenia, and most of the former Soviet Block see huge infection rates (if not huge populations).

Overnight, Asian markets were sharply red across the board. South Korea (-2.56%), Shenzhen (-2.29%), and Hong Kong (-1.95%) led the losses. Meanwhile, India (-0.24%) and Australia (-0.55%) faired best. However, in Europe, markets are leaning to the green side at this point in the day. Among the big 3 bourses, the CAC (+0.56%) leads while the DAX (-0.01%) and FTSE (+0.02%) are flat. Spain (+1.46%) is the only one percent mover with Russia (-0.24%) and Norway (-0.23%) being the only red on the board. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a gap lower at the open. The large-cap indices are pointing to an open down half a percent while the NASDAQ points to a 1% gap down at the moment.

The major economic news for Friday includes Sept. PCE Price Index, Sept. Personal Spending, Sept. Employment Cost (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (at 9:45 am), Mich. Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings reports include ABBV, MO, AXL, AON, BAH, BR, CHTR, CVX, XOM, FTS, GT, HON, LHX, LEA, LYB, NWL, PSX, PNW, PEG, SJR, UAA, and WY all report before the open. However, there are no major reports after the close.

The virus, the election, and earnings (or more importantly future guidance) are the main sources of volatility. With stimulus apparently a dead idea until after elections are held (and probably until results are known), this is a risky environment for investors. So, expect and plan for the volatility if you’re trading. Also, remember that this is Friday and Friday in front of what is likely to be the most political news filled weekend in years at that.

Think carefully if you want to be carrying risk into this weekend or perhaps even through the election. Also remember that if you do want to lighten up and haven’t done so, there is a good chance a lot of other traders have the same idea. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLF, FCX, KRE, INFO, OKE, HOLX, SCHW, NTNX, JD. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus Surge and Big Tech to be Grilled

October 28, 2020 by Ed Carter

Tuesday gave us an ugly roller-coaster day that ended near the lows. Only the major FAANGM stocks managed to fight the trend, which helped the QQQ to at least form an indecisive Spinning Top type candle that held up above the 50sma. On the day, SPY lost 0.34%, DIA lost 0.84%, and QQQ gained 0.78%. The VXX was on the positive side of flat at 24.27 and T2122 remains oversold at 14.07. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.769% and Oil (WTI) rose one and a quarter percent to $39.04/barrel.

Mortgage applications were flat this week following 4 straight weeks of declines. Of those applications that were made, refinancing mortgages increased as a percentage. That said, the overall volume of loan requests is up 24% from one year ago. This has been helped by another slight fall in rates from 3.02% to 3.00%.

The CEOs of FB, GOOG, and TWTR will testify before a Senate Committee today (odd considering the Senate is adjourned) related to proposed changes to Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act that would remove liability immunity for companies related to what is said by others on their platform. Republicans are decrying bias against Conservatives, Democrats are decrying the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation, and the President wants no limits on what he can say without being labeled. For their part, the companies are expected to argue that removing the limits would kill smaller online forums, slow communication, and greatly increase costs as every single word transmitted would need to be moderated.

The virus is raging across the US as we passed 9 million cases. 36 states have virus hospitalizations rising by at least 5% (this week) with 43 states reporting increasing new case counts that grew more than 5% versus a week ago as well. In fact, on Tuesday more than half the states reported their highest daily new case totals in at least one month. The numbers show we now have 9,039,170 confirmed cases and 232,101 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count spiking again to 72,731/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 842. The city of Chicago has reinstated restrictions on indoor restaurants and bars as cases race in the city.

Globally, the numbers rose to 44,328,799 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,173,225 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 411,000 new cases Monday with a 7-day average about 459,000. Global Covid deaths rose by over 7,000 on the day. Germany, Poland, and Belgium all reported a record number of new cases. Meanwhile, France announced new restrictions today. In the UK, a scientific study has found that the number of people having virus antibodies has fallen 26% in the last 3 months. This suggests that organic post-infection immunity may be short-lived. This comes as the WHO reports there were a record 2.8 million new cases reported worldwide in the last week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red yet again. Singapore (-1.17%), and Taiwan (-0.63%) led the losses. Shenzhen (0.68%) and South Korea (+0.62%) led gainers. However, in Europe, markets are heavily in the red across the board so far this morning. The raging virus continues to weigh on markets in Europe. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is down 1.79%, DAX down 3.26%, and CAC down 2.09% this morning. The rest of European Exchanges are down between one and three percent at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a strong gap lower at the open. The Dow is implying an open down 1.78%, S&P down 1.39%, and the NASDAQ down 1.02% at the moment.

The major economic news for Wednesday is limited to Sept. Trade Balance and Sept. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 6 pm). Major earnings on the day include ADP, ANTM, BA, BG, BSX, BX, CLS, CME, DAN, DBD, EAT, EPD, ETR, FCAU, MA, MAS, MKL, NSC, OC, PPD, R, SC, SEE, SNE, TEL, TMHC, TT, UPS, and YNDX before the open. Then after the close, AFG, AMGN, AMP, AR, ASGN, AVT, AVTR, CACI, CERN, CTSH, CXO, EBAY, EQIX, F, FBHS, GILD, KLAC, MOH, MUSA, NOW, ORLY, OVV, SFM, SSNC, SU, URI, V, VALE, WCN, WDC, WELL, and YUMC report.

The 3 big Es are adding to volatility now…elevated virus, election worry, and earnings. With stimulus apparently a dead idea until after elections are held (and probably until results are known), this is a risky environment to wade into very much. So, expect and plan for the volatility if you’re trading.

It looks like a nasty open, this morning, but maybe a flurry of earnings reports will change matters for the better. Be careful, nimble, and bear in mind you don’t have to trade every day or even week. Lock-in profits whenever you can and maintain your discipline. Stick to your rules, follow the trend, and don’t chase moves you have missed.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Wednesday. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Virus, Earnings, and Merger Lead News

October 27, 2020 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down about a percent Monday as the virus rages around the country. Then when Existing Home Sales fell 3.5%, the brief rally gave way to a strong selloff that lasted until 1:30 pm. After that, prices ground sideways until a late rally took prices well up off the lows. Still, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all gave up their short-term price and 50sma support levels. On the day, DIA was down 2.21%, SPY down 1.84%, and QQQ down 1.50%. VXX gained 9% on the day, closing at 24.17 and T2122 dropped like a rock, well into oversold territory at 11.60. 10-year bond yields fell to 0.804% and Oil (WTI) also dropped over 3% to $38.58/barrel.

Related to stimulus, talks continued Monday, but the blame game escalated too. After her call with negotiator counterparts failed to make more progress, House Speaker Pelosi sent a scathing letter decrying the Administration for “official malfeasance.” At the same time, Treasury Sec. Mnuchin declared that the problem was that “Pelosi has her heels dug in.” Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader McConnell was not part of the negations and adjourned the Senate until after the election just as soon as the ACB vote is finished Monday. So, the probability for any deal passing this week is now extremely remote.

Overnight it was announced that AMD will buy XLNX in a $35 billion all-stock deal. Both are competitors of INTC in the crucial (biggest dollar) datacenter market. LLY also said it has stopped testing of its monoclonal antibody treatments (the same class as one given the President) in hospitalized patients after a review showed it doesn’t appear to be helping.

The virus is raging across the US, even as many continue to downplay the need and/or usefulness of containment measures, politicians even claiming we’ve turned the corner. At the same time, 43 states reported increasing new case counts of more than 5% compared to a week ago. 32 states are now in the White House Task Force’s “Red Zone” (having more than 100 cases per 100k of population). The case numbers show we now have 8,962,783 confirmed cases and 231,045 deaths with a 7-day average daily new case count having risen to 70,987/day, while the average daily deaths also ticked up to 828. Dr. Fauci (NIH) and a pair of former FDA Commissioners all called for a national mask mandate to stem the growing wave of new cases.

Globally, the numbers rose to 43,857,818 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 1,165,500 deaths. This includes the world seeing over 411,000 new cases Monday with a 7-day average about 443,000. Global Covid deaths rose by over 5,100 on the day. Germany reported an exponential rise in cases Tuesday with 280 regions now considered virus hotspots (more than 50 cases per 100k of population). Russia also imposed a nationwide mask mandate among other new restrictions to control the virus. Meanwhile in good news, India reports another drop in new cases (to a level not seen since late July).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red again. New Zealand (-1.75%) and Hong Kong (-0.53%) led the losses. Meanwhile, India (+1.03%) and Hong Kong (+0.54%) led gainers. In Europe, markets are flat to red across the board as the virus continues its surge throughout Europe and the US. Among the big 3 bourses, the FTSE is flat at +0.13%, DAX fat at -0.04%, and CACA down at -0.64%. The rest of European Exchanges are down between 0.10% and 0.90% at this point in their day. As of 7:30 am, US futures are pointing to a modest gap higher at the open. All three major indices are implying an open up 0.40% at the moment.

The only major economic news for Tuesday is Sept. Durable Good Orders (8:30 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings on the day include ABG, BP, CAT, CMI, CNC, CSTM, DTE, ECL, GLW, HOG, HUBB, IVZ, LH, LLY, MMM, MRK, NVS, ODFL, OMC, PFE, PII, QSR, ROP, RTX, SHW, SWK, TECK, and XRX before the open. Then after the close, AFL, AMD, CB, CHRW, CYH, EIX, FISV, FTV, JNPR, MSFT, NCR, OI, OKE, THG, and UNM all report.

The Senate, having confirmed ACB as an Associate Justice to the Supreme Court adjourned to return home for politicking. This does remove a little uncertainty as there is now no way to achieve a deal on stimulus prior to the election. However, that won’t stop the two main negotiators from casting blame this week. The long and short of it is that the major market driver of last month (hope for more stimulus) is gone, leaving earnings and election worries to drive markets.

It looks like a green open, but there’s still quite a bit of work to do if the bulls want to climb back into the range of the last week’s candles. The short-term trend remains bearish and has broken the medium-term uptrend and recent support. Volatility is likely to continue with more economic news, major earnings, and only a week until the election. So, keep locking-in your profits and sticking to your trading rules. Don’t get greedy, don’t chase the moves you have missed, and don’t predict. Be sure that you respect potential support and resistance. Follow the trend and trade your plan.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HOLX, BIDU, RAD, XLU, OKE, OTRK, RIOT. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching