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Fed Meeting Starts and New EU Online Rules

December 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat to just slightly lower on Monday. However, stocks then proceeded to sell off until 11:30 am before bouncing along the bottom the rest of the day. This took us back down into the range of the recent week in the large caps, but the QQQ gave up last week’s range. All 3 major indices printed ugly black candles. On the day, SPY lost 0.89%, DIA lost 0.89%, and QQQ lost 1.44%. The VXX rose 4% to 21.64 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) dropped to 32.51. T2108 (Percent of stocks above their 40sma) fell to 28%, indicating there are relatively few stocks holding the market up. 10-year bond yields dropped to 1.414% and Oil (WTI) fell to $71.13/barrel.

The so-called “meme stocks” took another beating Monday. AMC lost over 15% and GME lost almost 14%. BBBY lost “only” 6.5% on the day. This brings AMC and GME’s total loss for the month to over 30% each. BBBY is faring a bit better for December, down only 9.7%.

Bloomberg reports that the EU Parliament passed new rules, limiting online content and advertising on Monday evening. These rules would make significant changes to the way online behemoths operate. Among the new rules are one that would put major limitations on advertising to minors, prohibit companies from requiring users to submit to online tracking, and would require content providers to take down any posts or materials the EU deems illegal. Sources told Bloomberg that the entire Parliament must now ratify the rules in January, but that the entire EU Parliament is expected to go for even more restrictions that would prohibit all online targeted advertising. GOOG, AAPL, and FB could see major changes if this happens and every major advertiser might be impacted if this altered marketing effectiveness.

Last night, on the eve of the Fed meeting, the CEO of MS called for the FOMC to raise rates soon. He also said, “the Fed is 10 rate increases behind normal (where they should be)”. It is widely expected that the FOMC will double the speed of their bond-buying taper. If they do, this will conclude during Q1. The MS CEO seemed to be calling for a rate increase by March, which would be months sooner than the market currently has priced in and quarters ahead of previous Fed guidance. (A CNBC survey is predicting the first rate hike in June.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side, with only two exceptions, but on mostly modest moves. Hong Kong (-1.33%), Taiwan (-0.95%), and Malaysia (-0.93%) paced the losses. In Europe, stocks are more mixed at mid-day, again on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.46%), DAX +0.07%), and CAC (+0.05%) are fairly typical in the region, with only Denmark (-1.17%) as an outlier. As of 7:30 am US Futures point toward a slightly lower open. The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY implies a -0.11% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.42% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields and Oil is flat in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday is limited to Nov. PPI (8:30 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. However, as mentioned above, today is the beginning of the December Fed meeting.

Global markets seem to be trying to hold ground waiting to see just what FOMC says on Wednesday afternoon. This “wait and see” stance is likely to make for a dead market today and Wednesday morning. However, it also can magnify the impacts of other news like omicron, politics, etc. So, just be prepared for a market similar to how Naval pilots describe night patrol flights…hours of boredom punctuated with moments (landings) of high anxiety.

Take your time. Don’t rush into trades the first minutes of the day. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Just keep consistently taking profits when you have them and move your stops in your favor. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade carefully, and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge in place.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CNC, TMUS, COST, XLRE, TSLA, TSN, PFE, AMC, ZION, TZA, SQQQ, PTON. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Fed Watch Begins

December 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher on Friday, apparently pleased with the 6.8% CPI number (the highest since 1982). After the open wandered sideways most of the day before a rally the last hour took markets out near the highs. This left us with gap-up, white, Hammer or Hanging Man candles in all 3 major indices. It is worth noting that the SPY closed at a new all-time high in the SPY. On the day, SPY gained 0.94%, DIA gained 0.59%, and QQQ gained 1.09%. The VXX fell to 20.78 and T2122 rose to mid-range at 45.89. The 10-year bond yields fell to 1.487% and Oil (WTI) rose to $71.98/barrel.

On Monday, British PM Boris Johnson reported that at least one person has died of the omicron variant in his country. He went on to cite an Oxford University study that has found the omicron can infect those that have had the full initial vaccination (one or two jabs depending on the vaccine requirements). Johnson said it appears omicron is a somewhat milder version of the virus, but that needs to be set aside to focus on what his experts are telling him will be a tidal wave of omicron cases in the UK. The FTSE reacted to this news and pulled back after his comments.

Regulatory filings this morning show that PFE is acquiring ARNA in a $6.7 billion deal. PFE will pay $100 per share for ARNA, which is a 100% premium to the companies Friday close. The move bolsters PFE’s portfolio of treatments in the gastric, dermatology, and cardiology arenas. In other stock-related news, a RIVN

Over the weekend, technology industry news gave some interesting perspectives on the global “ship shortage.” It seems that despite all the talk of chip shortages (from automakers, electronics, etc.), semiconductor manufacturers have sold more chips in 2021 than ever before. As an example, computer graphics card sales are at a significant new high despite being “out of stock” for long periods in commercial outlets. The main reason for this seems to be sales to crypto miners, many of which buy in bulk. This is sometimes hidden because NVDA (the largest GPU manufacturer) began selling directly to mining operations last year and does not report those sales separately. (Miners often pay a premium and buy in lots of 1,000 or more cards at a time.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side in modest trading. Japan (+0.71%), Shenzhen (+0.67%), and outlier New Zealand (+1.13%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, India (-0.82%), Singapore (-0.50%), and Taiwan (-0.33%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mostly green at mid-day. Only Russia (-1.52%) shows significant losses while the FTSE (-0.19%) is the only other red. However, the DAX (+0.94%), and CAC (+0.02%) are more typical of the range seen across Europe in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modest green open. The DIA is implying a +0.06% open, the SPY implies a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.38% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are moving lower (1.47%) and Oil (WTI) is off three-quarters of a percent in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for the day either. However, remember this is Fed meeting week.

With the Fed meeting coming this week, global markets seem to be waiting to see what the fallout is from the FOMC discussing speeding up the taper. (And whether there is any news or wording implication of faster rate hikes in 2022.) This “wait and see” stance is likely to carry over into the US and might make for a dead market over the next 2-3 days. However, it also can magnify the impacts of other news like omicron, politics, etc. So, just be prepared for a market similar to how Naval pilots describe night patrol flights…hours of boredom punctuated with moments (landings) of high anxiety.

Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) Consistently take profits when you have them and move your stops in your favor. Don’t be in a hurry to chase, trade carefully, and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BBIG, RIVN, ON, MSFT, ORCL, F, HIMX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

ORCL Post Great Report and CPI On Tap

December 10, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bulls had a tough day Thursday as all 3 major indices made a modest gap lower at the open. From there the SPY and QQQ went on a gradual all-day selloff. However, the DIA went on a gradual rally until afternoon profit-taking took it down off the highs. This action left us with Bearish Evening Star-type candles in the SPY and (especially) the QQQ. However, at least as of the close, all 3 major indices were able to stay above their T-lines. On the day, SPY lost 0.68%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ lost 1.47%. The VXX gained 3% to 22.20 and T2122 fell to 29.55. 10-year bond yields were little-moved at 1.497% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.5% to $70.55/barrel.

After the close, GOOG told its employees that they would not be giving raises to match inflation. Executives told a company-wide meeting that it was already had high labor costs and said they have no plans for any “inflation adjustment” on a companywide basis. The move came in response to more than 400 employee requests for the company to address the impact of high inflation (especially in the Silicon Valley area). Clearly, an issue that companies will need to address, and the pressure may get worse with today’s CPI number.

Also, after the close, ORCL beat strongly on both lines. They also announced an additional $10 billion buyback program and raised their forward guidance. However, the company also said they swung to a loss for the quarter when considering the payment of a court judgment over the compensation of former CEO Mark Hurd. Elsewhere, AVGO, COST, and LULU all beat on both lines. CHWY missed on earnings, but beat on revenue.

In government news, the Senate voted to allow them to raise the debt ceiling with a simple majority vote in a 59-35 vote. This signaled a change in stance by Minority Leader McConnell (return to bipartisan debt ceiling increases as was typical in the past) and immediately led to dissent from Republicans who oppose the idea. This eases the path to avoiding a shutdown by the December 15 deadline. They are expected to raise the limit by about $2 trillion early next week. As an aside, Senate Majority Leader Schumer said the debt ceiling vote as well as votes on the Budget and Climate packages before the Christmas break.

Overnight, Asian markets were broadly in the red, with only two green exchanges on modest moves. Hong Kong (-1.07%) and Japan (-1.00%) were outliers to the downside with most moves in the one-quarter to one-half of a percent range. In Europe, stocks are also mostly in the red on modest moves, with the big exchanges flat. The FTSE is flat (+0.01%), DAX is flat (+0.05%), and CAC (-0.01%) at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at this early hour. The DIA is implying a +0.28% open, the SPY implies a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open an hour ahead of CPI data. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.511% and Oil (WTI) is up a percent to $71.71/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Friday includes Nov. CPI (8:30 am and analysts expect the highest CPI number in 40 years), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and Nov. Federal Budget Balance (2 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are also limited to ASO before the open. There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

We got the expected rest Thursday after a few very strong days in all the major indices. However, the candles indicated there may be more of a pullback to come. Remember, not to get too tied up in the “hard right edge” of the chart and that a pullback was needed at some point to give us a higher high and higher low of a trend. Regardless, it is hard to predict the open today since the CPI number will call the tune at least early. We are expecting a terrible number, but just as a thought experiment, what would markets do if it came in even worse than is being expected? Also, remember the Fed meets next week and that is a risk because they are expected to accelerate the Taper and POSSIBLY change their long-standing position that rates will not rise in 2022.

Also, bear in mind that it is Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle. Don’t be in a hurry to chase. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) Consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor should be part of your plan. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ADVM, FANG, ERX, MRO, BP, VALE, CVS, CAT, TSN, BEKE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Good News from PFE-BNTX

December 8, 2021 by Ed Carter

US Markets followed the rest of the world Tuesday (largely on omicron relief after a couple of good news stories), gapping strongly higher and following through for about an hour and a half. At that point, we saw a sideways grind the rest of the day. This left us with strong white candles that closed near the highs in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 2.07%, DIA gained 1.39%, and QQQ gained 3.01%. The VXX fell over 11% to 22.90 and T2122 jumped higher and made it just into the overbought territory at 80.22. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.48% and Oil spiked another 3% to $71.72/barrel.

Mid-day Tuesday AMZN experienced a major outage of their AWS (cloud computing) operations. For AMZN, the problem caused operational issues as deliveries had to be halted across the US for a time. (AMZN delivers two-thirds of their own packages in the US.) They went so far as to tell drivers to “go somewhere safe and wait.” More broadly, NFLX, DIS, HOOD, COIN, and other major online businesses were taken offline for a while, because they use the AWS platform to host their IT operations.

Overnight, the PFE-BNTX partnership announced that a third (booster) dose of their vaccine neutralizes the omicron variant of Covid-19. Their internal study found that after having a booster shot, patients’ antibody protection was increased 25-fold. European markets moved higher on the news.

In earnings news, after the close last night, TOL and SFIX beat on both lines, but SFIX did lower guidance. So far this morning, UNFI, THO, and KFY have beat on both lines. However, CPB beat on earnings but missed on revenue while BF.A and BF.B missed on earnings and posted in-line revenue.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green again. Shenzhen (+1.82%), India (+1.71%), and Japan (+1.42%) led the way higher. Only Malaysia (-0.26%) and Singapore (-0.16%) showed any red in that region. In Europe, markets are volatile today but mostly red as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.27%), DAX (-0.38%), and CAC (-0.06%) lead the way and are typical. However, Switzerland (+1.06%) and Denmark (+1.16%) are outliers to the upside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green open. The DIA is implying a +0.27% open, the SPY implies a +0.26% open and the QQQ implies a +0.23% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down (1.468%) and Oil (WTI) is slightly higher ($72.01/barrel) in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Oct. JOLTS (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 10-year Bond Auction (1 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are also limited to BF.A, BF.B, CPB, KFY, THO, and UNFI before the open. Then, after the close, GME, GEF, and RH report.

The SPY has shot back near the all-time highs again after Tuesday’s action, with the QQQs a percent behind and the DIA about 2% behind. However, it’s been a big rise in a short time and markets may seek some rest soon. Plus, there is still resistance overhead that may prove to be an obstacle. Remember, we still have not established a new bull short-term trend…just a nice run. So continue to be careful.

Don’t be in a hurry to chase. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) Consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor should be part of your plan. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ANET, TSCO, MRO, FANG, CVX, NOK, ON. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Q3 Productivity and Labor Costs On Tap

December 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

We saw divergence on Monday as the DIA gapped up 0.91%, SPY gapped up 0.58%, and the QQQ gapped up just 0.13%. All 3 indices then faded the gap before starting a slow rally that lasted until the last hour of the day. During that last hour, a selloff turned into a sideways grind in a tight range the last 30 minutes of the day. This left us with Bullish Harami candles in the SPY and QQQ, while the DIA printed the strongest white candle (still with significant upper wick) and was the only one of the 3 to be able to close above its T-line (8ema). On the day, SPY gained 1.15%, QQQ gained 0.79%, and DIA gained 1.90%. The VXX fell almost 8% to 25.78 and T2122 spiked up into the mid-range at 54.78. 10-year bond yields rebounded from Friday’s sharp drop to spike all the way back up to 1.439% and Oil (WTI) jumped a massive 5.43% to $69.87/barrel.

Bloomberg reports this morning that a GSK Antibody Covid Treatment is effective against the new omicron variant. In fact, their internal research shows the treatment works against all 37 known mutations of Covid that have been identified. Sotrovimab (the drug’s name) reduced the risk of hospitalization or death of Covid patients by 79%. Markets are likely to love this news, but remember that this is only based on studies done by GSK itself.

In miscellaneous business news, the CEO of AAL announced he will retire by 3/31/22 and will be replaced by current AAL President Robert Isom. INTC also announced that it intends an IPO to spinoff its “Self-Driving Car” unit (which is based on an Israeli company named Mobileye that INTC acquired in 2017).

On Monday, China went against the global trend and decided to loosen lending standards by cutting their bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR). The move pumped $188 billion into their economy, in an effort to offset the problems faced in the Chinese real estate sector. This will make it easier for banks to lend to companies, which can then use the proceeds to pay off bonds. The move was clearly for this purpose because the statement from the Central Bank said “stability is the top priority for the coming year.”

Overnight, Asian markets were heavily on the green side. Hong Kong (+2.72%), Japan (+1.89%), and India (+1.56%) led the rally. Only Shenzhen (-0.38%) showed any red. Two factors led to the massive Hong Kong rally. First, Evergrande announced it will restructure the company and is being buoyed by China’s most recent move toward easing. Second, was optimism over omicron being potentially overblown as a threat. In Europe, markets are green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.17%), DAX (+2.07%), and CAC (+2.28%) are typical of the afternoon trading. However, Finland (+3.27%) is an outlier to the upside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward the US following the rest of the world higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +0.98% open, the SPY implies a +1.30% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.84% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday includes Imports/Exports, Trade Balance, Q3 Unit Labor Cost, and Q3 Nonfarm Productivity (all at 8:30 am) and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (at noon). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are also limited to AZO, CNM, and DBI before the open. Then, after the close, CSAY, SFIX, and TOL report.

The bulls are looking to break out of the recent whipsaw range with a significant gap-up open. However, there is still a fair amount of recent resistance to work through if the goal is to get back to the highs. Before you get too excited, remember that gaps are great when they go in your direction…it’s a gift and you should take that gift by locking in some profit. However, remember the other side of the coin. Gaps mean volatility and until a trend is established, you might find the next overnight move goes against you. So continue to be careful.

Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) Consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor should be part of your plan. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WISH, CCL, Z, GPN, CVX, HAL, CHGG, IBM, NCLH, V, VALE, OSCR, GT, SABR, SAM, FGEN, AAPL. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Very Rough Weekend for Bitcoin

December 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

The chop continued on Friday as a modest gap up was immediately sold in all 3 major indices. The selling went on all day until a spike in the last 10 minutes of the day took markets up off the lows. The QQQ got the worst of the pain as Chinese stocks and tech in general sold off. This action left us with a Bearish Engulfing candle in the QQQ and a Dark Cloud Cover type candle in the SPY. On the day, SPY lost 0.91%, DIA lost 0.11%, and QQQ lost 1.74%. VXX gained almost 9% to 27.99 and T2122 fell deeper into the oversold territory at 8.03. 10-year bond yields fell hard to 1.358% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $66.45/barrel.

The November jobs report put a scare into bulls on Friday. The number was expected to come in about 573k jobs added but actually came in at +210k jobs. Part of this is due to the participation rate increasing to 61.8%. The unemployment rate also fell sharply to 4.2% (from 4.5%).

Bitcoin got crushed Friday and Saturday, plunging 25% (from $57,100 to $43,100) before rebounding to $49,000, which was still down 16% as of Saturday night. While analysts did not cite any real reason for the freefall, one told CNBC it was likely the result of a derivative move caused by Friday’s flight to treasuries by funds.

Sunday afternoon, confirmation was given to what I’ve reported in the past. Despite selling 10.1 million shares in the last few weeks of TSLA (7 million shares fewer than he said he would sell), Elon Musk now has 564k more shares than when he started selling. This is because the real reason for him to sell stock had nothing to do with his TWTR poll, but was to pay for the gains made on a huge chunk of stock options that he exercised. He also still has 12.2 million shares worth of “soon to expire” stock options that he would be foolish not to exercise. So, his holdings will increase dramatically, even if he sells more to cover taxes.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the downside. Hong Kong (-1.76%), India (-1.65%), and Malaysia (-1.22%) led the losses, but the red was widespread. The reason behind the losses was Asian tech giants like BABA getting hammered and China Evergrande Group teetering on the edge of default again. In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the green side at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.01%), DAX (+0.51%), and CAC (+0.84%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trading. However, Russia (-2.24%) is a massive outlier. As of 7:30 am US Futures point toward a mixed open. The DIA implies a +0.68% open, the SPY is implying a +0.29% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.43% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are sharply lower (1.397%) and Oil (WTI) is surging higher +3.27% in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. For traders sick of “Fed speak” market jerks, the good news is that we are now in the dark period (no Fed speakers) until the Fed decisions next week. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are also limited to SAIC before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

The back and forth whipsaw action continued Friday. More volatility is likely as the market adjusts to the idea that the Fed will be focusing more on fighting inflation than job creation over the next year. If you’re a swing trader, be very wary of this type of market. Chop is a condition for the very fast (scalpers) and very slow (long-term trading) with the guys in the middle..well…getting chopped up. So, if you don’t trade hedged and you are not extremely quick to be in/out, it’s past time to consider stepping back and waiting for a trending and less volatile environment.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or week. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) If you do trade, that should always include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers this morning. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

November Payrolls Data On Tap

December 3, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday gave us a more or less flat open after the brutal prior day. Then markets proceeded on a whippy day-long rally in all 3 major indices. This left the two large-cap indices as Bullish Harami-type candles. On the day, SPY gained 1.43%, DIA gained 1.80%, and QQQ gained 0.72%. However, the downtrend was not broken in any of the major indices and there is no indication that the whipsaw action will not continue on Friday. The VXX fell almost 6% to 25.72 and T2122 came up a bit, but remains in the oversold territory at 14.48. 10-year bond yield rose to 1.449% and Oil (WTI) came up just under 1.9% to $66.81/barrel.

During the day, Germany issued another national lockdown (but only for the unvaccinated). Their government is debating a national vaccination mandate, but it is unclear if this will happen since Chancellor Merkel leaving office next week. On our side of the Atlantic, Congress passed a bill to provide temporary funding, avoid a government shutdown, and kick the can down the road until February on passing a budget. However, the bill still must pass the Senate by Friday to avoid a shutdown and there are indications Senate Republicans will use this leverage to demand a prohibition against government vaccine mandates in the bill. In an unexpected development, in early-morning hours the Senate passed the shutdown avoidance bill mostly on party lines.

Right at the end of the day, the FTC sued to block NVDA’s acquisition of the chipmaker Arm. NVDA stock did not respond to the news in the last 30 minutes of the day. Arm is an alternative chip architecture to the traditional x86 architecture used by the market-leading chipmaker such as TSM. Arm chips are used in AAPL and QCOM devices as well as Android phones. In addition to the US lawsuit, this $40 billion purchase by NVDA (from Softbank) also faces stiff resistance from the UK (one-time home of Arm) and the EU by extension.

Thursday afternoon the SEC ruled it is able to force the immediate delisting of Chinese companies that fail to meet the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) audit requirements. This stemmed from the 2020 case of Luckin Cofee (LKNCY), who fired its CEO after finding massive internal fraud, where the company simply “created” $310 million in sales on paper. Thursday night, Chinese ride-hailing company DIDI announced it will delist from the NYSE rather than comply. The company said it would convert US-listed shares into international exchange shares that are “freely tradeable.” Oddly, DIDI stock spiked 14% higher on this news in the premarket.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Japan (+1.00%), Shanghai (+0.94%), and Shenzhen (+0.86%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, India (-1.18%), and Indonesia (-0.69%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.42%), DAX (+0.24%), and CAC (+0.09%) are representative of the continent, with only a few exchanges slightly on the red side of flat in early-afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open in front of a lot of data. The DIA is implying a +0.03% open, the SPY implies a -0.02% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.03% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are lower to 1.431% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 2.5% in early trading.

Major economic news scheduled for release Friday includes Nov. Nonfarm Payrolls, Nov. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Nov. Participation Rate, Nov. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Nov. Services PMI (9:45 am), and Nov. ISM Non-Mfg. PMI and Oct. Factory Orders (both at 10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BMO, DOLE, and GCO before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

The back and forth whipsaw action continued Thursday. However, the market seems to either need some rest or perhaps it is just waiting on the PAyrolls data. In either case, no gap is implied at this point. That said, more volatility is likely as markets adjust to the idea that the Fed will be focusing more on fighting inflation than job creation over the next year. If you’re a swing trader, be very wary of this type of market. Chop is a condition for the very fast (scalpers) and very slow (long-term trading) with the guys in the middle..well…getting shopped up. So, if you don’t trade hedged and you are not extremely quick to be in/out, it’s past time to consider stepping back and waiting for a trending and less volatile environment.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or week. Also, keep in mind this is Friday…so don’t forget to prepare for hte weekend news cycle. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) If you do trade, that should always include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APA, FANG, ERX, COP, MRO, CVX, HAL, XOP, BP, XOM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

You Get a Whip and I’ll Get a Saw Honey

December 2, 2021 by Ed Carter

Wednesday was another massive whipsaw way. All 3 major indices gapped at least a percent higher at the open and then followed through as Fed Chair Powell and Tres. Sec. Yellen testimonies turned up nothing market-moving. However, in the late morning a case of the omicron variant was identified in California and a selloff started. As scalpers, profit-takers and stops kicked in, the selloff turned into a rout. This left us with upper wicks that had challenged (and failed) the downtrend line over big, ugly black candles in all 3 major indices. It also made for the largest 2-day drop since October 2020. On the day, SPY lost 1.10%, DIA lost 1.29%, and QQQ lost 1.69%. The VXX rose 7% to 27.30 and T2122 fell even further to a very oversold 1.63. The 10-year bond yields fell to 1.424% and Oil (WTI) dropped another 1.5% to $65.18/barrel.

As was mentioned, the first case of the omicron variant was identified in CA. The person who contracted it was fully vaccinated, but it is worth noting that, so far, the patient is only experiencing mild symptoms. However, President Biden did tighten travel restrictions and mask mandates again as part of his plan to fight Covid.

After the close, FIVE and SPLK beat on both lines, while SNPS beat on earnings, but came in in-line on revenue. However, PVH beat strongly on earnings but came in light on revenue. In neon-earnings news, DIS replaced their long-standing board chair (Bob Iger) with Susan Arnold. SQ also changed its name to Block (as a signal they will move to work more on crypto).

This morning DG posted beats on both lines. The company also announced plans to open 1,000 “Popshelf” stores aimed toward a younger and wealthier demographic than has been the company’s target to date. The stores are scheduled to all be in place by the end of fiscal 2025.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the up side. Japan (-0.65%) was the clear loser on the day while South Korea (+1.57%), India (+1.37%), and Indonesia (+1.17%) led the wider-spread move up. In Europe, markets are red across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.90%), DAX (-1.54%), and CAC (-1.28%) are leading the way lower on renewed Covid (omicron variant) fears in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.67% open, the SPY implies a +0.37% open, while the QQQ implies a slightly red -0.04% open. 10-year bond yields are up only slightly and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am) and 3 speakers (Fed Member Quarles at 11 am, Fed member Bostic at 11:30 am, and Fed member Daly at 11:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CM, DG, EXPR, GMS, KR, SIG, and TD before the open. Then after the close, COO, DOCU, JOAN, MRVL, and ULTA report.

Yesterday’s action was just another case of the whipsaw that continues over the last week. Volatility is likely to continue as markets adjust to the idea that the Fed will focus more on fighting inflation over the next year. As said before in this blog, nimble scalpers are in heaven with this many intraday swings. However, this makes for an extremely hard market for swing traders to be successful. So, if you don’t trade hedged and you are not extremely quick to be in/out, it’s past time to consider stepping back and waiting for a trending and less volatile environment.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or week. Focus on the times when the trend and chart setup gives you have an edge. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. (Not trying to force the market to obey your desires.) If you do trade, that should always include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No stock picks this morning, but members can see them in the trading room at 9 am. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Try to Open December With Bounce

December 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

Tuesday was a rough day for markets as a modest gap-down turned into a rout as Fed Chair Powell said the FOMC will discuss accelerating the bond-buying taper by a few months at its upcoming meeting. Markets stabilized and ground sideways from noon on, but closed near the lows. This left us with a Doji-Gap down black candle in the SPY and ugly black candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.95%, DIA lost 1.79%, and QQQ lost 1.41%. The VXX rose 15% to 25.47 and T2122 dropped to a very oversold 2.93. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.444% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 4.5% to $66.77/barrel.

In Covid news, before the open, MRNA CEO Bancel told the Financial Times that he expects all existing vaccines to be less effective against the omicron variant. This was a contributor to the gap-down open. In a completely separate report, REGN said their antibody treatment may be less effective against the variant as well. MRNA was down 4.36% and REGN was down 2.73% on the day. What wasn’t stressed is that this is to be expected of mutated viruses and new vaccines and treatments for the variant are already under development.

After the close, CRM beat on both lines. It also announced that it was promoting Bret Taylor (former CEO of a previous CRM acquisition) to Co-CEO alongside one of the founders (Marc Bennioff). In other after-hours reports, NTAP beat on both lines, while GFS and HPE both beat on earnings and missed on revenue.

So far this morning, PDCO, DOOO, GIII, and DCI have all beat on both lines. RY beat on revenue but missed on earnings. Refinance mortgage applications fell 15% for the week as 30-year fixed, conforming interest rates increased to 3.31% on average. However, new home purchase applications rose 5% for the week.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. South Korea (+2.14%), Singapore (+1.87%), and Thailand (+1.41%) led the way higher, but the gains were widespread. In Europe, stocks are green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.51%), DAX (+1.66%), and CAC (+1.66%) are leading European markets higher in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures point to a significant gap higher as American markets follow the move higher. The DIA is implying a +0.85% open, the SPY implies a +1.23% open, and QQQ implies a 1.46% open, 10-year bond yields are also up to 1.483% and Oil (WTI) is up 4.43% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Nov. ADP nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Nov. Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), Nov. ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and a couple of major speakers (Fed Chair Powell testifies and Treas. Sec. Yellen speaks, both at 10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DCI, DOOO, GIII, PDCO, and RY before the open. Then after the close, FIVE, PVH, SPLK, and SNPS report.

The whipsaw is continuing this morning as the cycle of overreaction and snap-back to omicron and Fed news keeps volatility high. This is not an easy market for swing trading, but nimble scalpers are loving what they see. So, be a little leery of chasing into what could turn out to be a pop and drop.

That said, for the agile or hedged, at least a short-term rebound seems to be in the cards this morning. Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. That should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: XPEV, PLBY, XLE, FSR, AAPL, AMD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Look to Bounce from Brutal Friday

November 29, 2021 by Ed Carter

Friday was a brutal half-day for the bulls. A new variant of Covid out of South Africa (Omicron) has been labeled a threat by the WHO and world markets are ran for cover. In the US, a 2% gap down, led to follow-through the first two hours. However, a rally from 11:30-12:30 am brought markets back to the gap-down level, only to be met with more hard selling until 12:55 pm. Interestingly, there was a bullish move on MASSIVE volume (probably dark pool volume from the open) the last 5 minutes. This all left us with a gap-down Spinning Top in the DIA, and gap-down big black candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the half-day, SPY lost 2.23%, QQQ lost 1.90%, and DIA lost 2.52%. The VXX spiked to 26.16 and T2122 dropped deep into the oversold territory at 3.88. 10-year bond yields fell off a cliff as traders ran for safety to 1.482% and Oil (WTI) dove an incredible amount of more than 13% to $68.17/barrel.

As mentioned above, the Omicron variant made most of the economic news over the last 4 days. Cases have been found in Europe, Australia and Dr. Fauci (NIH) says it is likely already in the US as well. Travel restrictions are already being imposed globally. So, the market faces uncertainty about what can be done to contain the economic fallout over this new outbreak as we enter Winter and with central banks and fiscal policies already facing heavy inflation. On the other hand, we don’t know the mortality rate of the new variant and it does appear that the pharma response will be faster this time. (MRNA says testing is already underway and an Omicron vaccine could be ready in early 2022.) So, while the market hates uncertainty, don’t be surprised if at least today we see a rebound after what may be perceived as Friday’s overreaction.

In-store retail traffic was down 28% on Black Friday compared to 2019 according to retail industry analysts. This was despite closures having Thanksgiving Day sales down 90% from 2019. However, Black Friday sales were still up 48% from the 2020 levels. In addition, online retailers report sales slightly lower than last year ($8.9 billion vs. $9.0 billion in 2020) on Friday. With all of this said, given the tremendously strong Q3 retail results, analysts are predicting that shoppers have just been buying throughout the season rather than so heavily on the Thanksgiving weekend. One industry analyst (Adobe Analytics) is still predicting Cyber Monday to be the biggest shopping day of the year according to CNBC.

TSLA changed its tune Friday. What had been an all-out push for deliveries at any cost for several quarters was reversed when CEO Elon Musk told employees to focus on “minimizing the cost of deliveries” rather than on hitting end-of-quarter delivery goals. However, the company still expects to meet its broad goal of achieving 50% average growth in deliveries for the year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly down. Japan (-1.63%), Singapore (-1.44%), and Thailand (-1.30%) led the way lower. Only Indonesia (+0.71%) was appreciably green, although Shenzhen (+0.22%) and India (+0.16%) both stayed above water. In Europe, however, markets are strongly green across the board at mid-day. The only exception is Denmark (-0.30%). The FTSE (+1.04%), DAX (+0.48%), and CAC (+0.98%) are leading the charge, but some of the smaller exchanges are up considerably more (such as Russia at +2.11%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a rebound. The DIA is implying a +0.52% open, the SPY implies a +0.71% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.87% open at this hour. Oil is already making a strong comeback (up 4.97% at this time) and 10-year bond rates are also spiking in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Monday includes Oct. Pending Home Sales (10 am) and an onslaught of speakers (Fed Chair Powell testifies at 10 am, Treas. Sec. Yellen speaks at 10 am, Fed member Williams speaks at 10:30 am, Fed member Clarida speaks a 1 pm, Fed member Williams speaks at 3 pm, Chair Powell speaks at 3:05 pm, and Fed member Bowman speaks at 5:05 pm. Major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to LI before the open. There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

The bulls have had 2.5 days to consider the real potential impact of Omicron and get past initial fears. They seem to be trying to mount a rebound charge in Europe and, so far, are looking to follow Europe back higher this morning. A lot of technical damage needs to be fixed but the bulls look ready to try early.

Be leery of chasing into what could turn out to be a pop and drop. However, for the nimble, at least a short-term rebound seems to be in the cards this morning. Focus on your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. That should include consistently taking profits when you have them and moving your stops in your favor. Trade carefully and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLD, ON, DVN, PFE, HPQ, LCID, KR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching