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A Pause Before We Get to Jackson Hole?

August 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets essentially opened very slightly higher Tuesday and then ground sideways with a slight bullish lean until about 2:30 pm. At that point, we saw profit-taking right into the close. This left us with tiny, Gap-Up Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day SPY closed up 0.15% (to another new all-time high close), DIA closed up 0.08%, and QQQ closed up 0.31% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX was flat at 26.71 and T2122 rose but remains in the midrange at 70.97. 10-year bond yields moved higher to 1.299% and Oil (WTI) gained 3% to $67.66/barrel.

After the close, the House voted to approve a procedural measure that advances both the $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure bill. The move comes after Democratic infighting was resolved and will allow Democrats to approve the massive spending bills without any Republican votes. While still a long way off, this is another major step toward both the Infrastructure bill (great for steel, telecom, and other industries) and the Democratic budget agenda (increased social “safety net” and education spending), which may hurt industries like insurance and drug companies as well as tax increases on business and high-income.

30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 3.03%. This was the first drop in rates in the last 3 weeks. However, mortgage demand remains light, seeing only a 1% increase in refinance applications and a 3% increase in new loan applications from last week.

JNJ reported that its Covid Booster shot is showing a promising immune response in early trials this morning. Specifically, trial participants are showing a nine-fold increase in antibodies 4 weeks after the booster shot. In other virus-related news, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 38,968,925 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 648,161. The averages are now at 148,755 new cases and 873 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but heavily to the green side. Taiwan (+1.35%), Malaysia (+1.06%), and Thailand (+0.85%) led to the upside. The only red was minor and came from Japan (-0.03%) and Hong Kong (-0.13%). In Europe, we also see mixed markets, but on more modest moves at this hour. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (-0.16%), and CAC (+0.16%) are typical of the mix across the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.02% open at this hour. Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are slightly higher at 1.309% and Oil is up a third of a percent in early trading, even as the Dollar shows a little strength against other currencies.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DKS, LX, QH, RY, and VIOT before the open. Then after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, SPLK, ULTA, and WSM report.

As traders begin preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium (Central Banker Summit, which is virtual this year), the pause may continue again today. Traders will focus on figuring out how “tapering” will be couched in the discussions and then handicapping how the market will react. While July Durable Goods and Current Oil Inventories new could theoretically move markets, the more likely scenario is that we drift as traders prepare. That’s our cue to be prepared as well. What will you need to do to your portfolio if we see a taper tantrum pullback? How about if we see an “everything’s hunky-dory” rally? Plan ahead so that you aren’t running around with your hair on fire if one of those does come to pass Thursday or Friday.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SWCH, NLOK, SBUX, DKNG, CARR, PENN, AMC, GME, CAN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

More Good Retail Earnings This Morning

August 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Monday and then kept rallying until about 1 pm. However, the rest of the day saw some persistent profit-taking that lasted into the close. This left us with strong white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the say, SPY gained 0.87% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ gained 1.50% (to a new all-time high close). The VXX fell 3.4% to 26.81 and T2122 remained in the mid-range at 55.65. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.257% and Oil (WTI) spiked higher 5.3% to $65.44/barrel as commodities across the board showed very strong gains on a very weak dollar.

The FDA gave “Full Approval” (as opposed to “Emergency Use Approval”) to the PFE Covid vaccine on Monday. President Biden then made a plea to those unvaccinated Americans, saying “Please get vaccinated now.” He went on to stress that the vaccine has now proven to be 91% effective at preventing infection and once vaccinated, there is a very low statistical probability of having a severe infection. As of Sunday, only 51% of American adults were fully vaccinated. In somewhat related news, DIS reached a deal with unions to require all employees be vaccinated.

In earnings news, the retail sector continues to impress as BBY posted a beat on revenue and 58% obliteration of earnings estimates. BBY stock was up 6% in pre-market trading on the news. AAP also beat on both lines, but PDD missed on revenue from the retail sector this morning. In other sectors, MDT and BNS beat on both lines as well. In fact, for the earnings season, 90% of the S&P500 have reported an average earnings gain of 95% year over year.

Related to the virus, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this Delta surge. The totals rose to 38,814,596 confirmed cases and deaths are now at a total of 646,667. Remember that these numbers are now under-reported as many (mostly Southern) states have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is increasing at an average of 147,693 new cases per day. Deaths, which lag, are also still rising and are now at 846 per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board as Chinese tech stocks rallied hard. Hong Kong (+2.46%) and Malaysia (+2.03%) were standouts. However, the major exchanges all saw about a 1% gain. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.16%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (-0.39%) are typical of the region at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to modest gaps higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +0.14% open, the SPY implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.26% open at this hour. The dollar and 10-year bond yields are flat in early trading, but Oil (WTI) is showing another 1.8% gain to $66.84/barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to July New Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AAP, BNS, BBY, HTHT, MDT, and PDD before the open. Then after the close, VNET, HEI, INTU, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN report.

In Asia, it seems the worries over Chinese Tech regulations and Covid have eased (China reported no cases for a second straight day after their draconian regional crackdown). Europe seems to also be in a better mood as the PFE-BNTX vaccine approval in the US eased some concerns and Fed tapering expectations have been calmed by recent statements. With breadth (T2101) up off its lows and back into the highs of the period since the Spring rally and stocks at all-time highs again, the bulls are looking for some follow-through this morning.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPT, ARRY, DKNG, MS, AMRN, SWCH, GNOG You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

PMI Data and When Fed Will Taper in Focus

August 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened relatively flat on Friday. However, the dip-buyers showed up and led a choppy rally all day long. This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that all closed very near their highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.77%, DIA gained 0.48%, and QQQ gained 1.04%. The VXX fell 7.5% to 27.75 and T2122 jumped back up into the mid-range at 41.61. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 1.257% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.26% to $62.25. For the week, all 3 major indices gave us long-legged, indecisive, Doji-like candles with the SPY down 0.60%, DIA down 1.19%, and QQQ lost 0.30%.

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Summit coming up at the end of this week. The recent talk (mostly from non-voting FOMC members in public events) has all been centered around starting the bond-buying taper soon. That’s assumed to be the main point of discussion among the global central bankers at the end of the week. However, it was interesting to note that on Friday, Fed hawk Kaplan (not a voter) who has been calling for quicker bond-buying taper changed his tune slightly. In a Friday interview, Kaplan told Fox News he may rethink his position on calling for a quick taper if it continues to look like the Delta variant spread is slowing economic growth. He went on to say “it’s in our interest to slow the spread and right now we’re in a negative trend.”

Bitcoin hit $50,000 on Sunday night, which was a 3-month high. This comes after a massive selloff in June and early July. The all-time high of $64,000 was reached in April prior to the selloff. Among the drivers of the recent rally was that COIN announced it would buy $500 million in crypto for its balance sheet and also allocate 10% of company profits to go into cryptocurrencies in future quarters.

In miscellaneous stock news, TGT announced they will triple the number of “shop in a shop” DIS stores they host in their stores. TGT will add 100 DIS shops in existing TGT stores before the holiday season. This seems to be a counter move to M announcing a few days ago that it will be adding Toys-R-Us “shop-in-a-shop stores. Both seem to be hopeful signs for the brick-and-mortar retail space and perhaps for the economy in general.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost exclusively green. Only Singapore (-0.49%) was in the red, while Taiwan (+2.45%), Shenzhen (+1.98%), and Japan (+1.78%) led the gainers. In Europe, PMI data out of the EU remains strong (59.5) for July. This has led to green across the board at mid-day in the region. The FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.25%), and CAC (+0.93%) lead the way as usual, with most of the continent’s exchanges falling somewhere between the FTSE and DAX. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest gap-higher. The SPY is implying a +0.43% open, the DIA implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.31% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.275% and Oil is trading 3% higher in early trading as the dollar is trading down significantly this morning.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and July Existing Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to JD before the open. Then after the close, PANW reports.

Good global economic data should give the bulls a little tailwind early today. However, US PMI data for July comes out at 9:45 am, and with few earnings or other data expected, that is likely to drive the tune for the remainder of the day. Breadth picked up in the rally the last few days. However, this is still far from what could be called a broad-based bull charge. So, continue to trade carefully and focus on the trend in your trading horizon.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIOT, CAN, MRVL, SWCH, MARA, DLTR, EBAY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Chinese Law and Chip Shortage Aid Bears

August 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Despite better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims, markets gapped down hard at the open Thursday. This took us to or near the 50sma in all 3 major indices. However, the bulls stepped in immediately and rallied stocks into the highs just lunch. From there we saw another down wave and rally as the volatility took us on a final down leg at the close. This all left us with large-body, white candles with upper wicks amid small overall moves. On the day, SPY gained 0.17%, DIA lost 0.18%, and QQQ gained 0.48%. The VXX gained 3.2% to 30.00 and T2122 dropped deeper into the oversold territory at 5.71. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.242% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.15% to $64.05/barrel.

Thursday night, TSLA CEO Elon Musk announced plans to build a “Humanoid Robot” he dubbed the “Tesla Bot.” The stated goal of the robots will be to eliminate the need for humans to do “dangerous, repetitive, and boring tasks.” As with most of Musk’s “inventions,” robots have been a widely-known concept for centuries and an actual product for decades. However, I’m sure the TSLA robot will be “world changing.” In either case, the news and related tweets are giving TSLA stock a little boost in premarket trading.

China has passed a major “personal information protection law,” somewhat similar to the laws in place in the EU since 2018 and the recent AAPL vs FB “consent changes” for iPhone users. This set of regulations lays out strict guidelines related to the collection, storage, and use of personal information by companies. While the law has passed on Friday and goes into effect on November 1, the final draft has not been made public yet. This is all part of the recent sweeping regulation of the technology sector, in particular, focused on phone apps and websites.

Japan’s massive auto companies were all down sharply following the Thursday evening announcement by Toyota that it is slashing global production for September by 40%. The reason for the cuts is a lack of chips and no more room to store partially completed vehicles. Toyota did stress that it still believes it can hit its annuals production and sales targets. Toyota was down 4.09%, Nissan dropped 7.25%, and Honda fell 4.84% on the day. This news may have hurt US automakers Thursday and is not likely to give them any help today. So, keep an eye on F, GM, STLA, and major parts suppliers.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red again. Hong Kong (-1.84%), Shenzhen (-1.61%), and Shanghai (-1.10%) led the region lower. In fact, the Hong Kong Hang Seng moved into the Bear territory, down more than 20% from the February highs. In Europe, markets are red nearly across the board in the early afternoon. The FTSE (-0.24%), DAX (-0.48%), and CAC (-0.52%) are typical of the continent mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to another gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.47% open, the SPY implying a -0.47% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.30% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are also lower to 1.233% and Oil (WTI) off eight-tenths of a percent in early trading with the dollar showing a little early strength.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is a Fed speaker (Kaplan at 11 am) and Options Expiration (after the close). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DE and FL before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

With markets looking at the first appreciable weekly loss in a month, the bears are continuing to draw strength from the fear of Fed bond tapering and the Covid-19 resurgence. As mentioned above, today is also options expiration Friday. So, expect a little volatility and perhaps some pinning in the afternoon. Just remember that we are sitting at or near the 50sma (potential support) and are only 2% off the all-time highs. So, don’t go all-in either direction just yet, especially in front of the weekend news cycle. Trade carefully.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control. It is good trading rules and discipline that separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them. Lastly, remember it’s Friday…and Friday is payday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GTBC, EBAY, CHRS, HUT, X, NUE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bears Find Strength in 2021 Taper Fears

August 19, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets just ground sideways Wednesday…right up until the July FOMC minutes came out. From that point onward the bears just hammered the bulls as stocks went out on the lows. This left us with nasty black candles with upper wicks and short-term downtrends in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.07%, DIA lost 1.04%, and QQQ lost 0.96%. The VXX gained almost 7% to 29.05 and T2122 dropped well into the oversold territory at 8.47. 10-year bond yields held steady at 1.265% and Oil (WTI) dropped over 2.6% to $64.83/barrel.

The cause of that sharp afternoon selloff was the July Fed Minutes. As had been signaled by recent Fed member statements (but apparently not believed), the FOMC has had discussions about tapering its bond-buying program this year. In fact, most of the participants noted that if the economy continues to evolve as expected, they’d support tapering bond purchases before year-end. Not today, but perhaps announcing a timetable at the September meeting and then slowly beginning the taper in October.

Strong Retail earnings continue to be the theme of the week. So far this morning, M absolutely crushed their report (beating by $668 million dollars on revenue and coming in 11 times higher than the average estimate on earnings, $1.29 vs $0.18 expected). KSS also more than doubled the average analyst estimate on earnings and raised guidance for the full year. Finally, while TPR beat, it was a pedestrian beat by comparison to the other two retail names reporting this morning.

In other retail-related news, CNBC reports that AMZN is planning to open large retail locations, starting in CA and OH. The stores will be similar to department stores but on the small side of size, similar to a KSS store. Meanwhile, in addition to their earnings, M also reported that they have partnered with “Toys R Us” and will offer that brand via “shop within a shop” areas in 400 of the M stores starting in 2022.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red again as even more Chinese regulations were announced. Taiwan (-2.68%), Hong Kong (-2.13%), and South Korea (-1.93%) led the parade, but losses were widespread and significant. Only New Zealand (+1.87%) bucked the trend as its national 3-day lockdown continues. In Europe, markets are down sharply across the board at this hour. The FTSE (-1.98%), DAX (-1.75%), and CAC (-2.44%) are typical for the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to gap-down follow-through of yesterday afternoon’s selloff. The DIA is implying a -0.91% open, the SPY implying a -0.83% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.69% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are also falling, now at 1.23% and Oil (WTI) is off almost 4% to $62.98/barrel in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BILI, BJ, EL, KSS, M, PFGC, and TPR before the open. Then after the close, AMAT, FTCH, and ROST report.

Fear of Fed tapering, combined with slowing economic data and the Covid-19 resurgence are giving the bears plenty of ammunition. This might not have been helped when HOOD warned of a slowdown in trading volume. So, the long-awaited pullback is underway with the 50sma as the destination (possible support?) this morning. Beware of volatility, remember that the longer-term trend is still bullish, and remember that we are only 2.5% off the all-time highs as well as bear moves tend to happen faster than bull moves. So, trade carefully.

Today is the kind of day where it pays to remember two things. Cash is a position. And you don’t HAVE to trade every day. Always manage your existing trades before chasing new ones. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control. Trading rules and discipline are what separates long-term success and failure in trading. So, trade with the trend until the trend is broken. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next trade. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by managing stops. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

July Fed Minutes and Housing Data Today

August 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

US markets gapped down two-thirds to three-fourths of a percent at the open Tuesday and then ground sideways until late morning. The bears took us a leg further down into the speech of Fed Chair Powell, but then the bulls stepped in and gave us a slow rally back up into the close. This left us will indecisive Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices, none of which fell outside the recent trading range. So, we have an indecisive pullback on greater than average volume. The VXX rose 3% to 27.20 and T2122 dropped down just outside the oversold territory at 21.86. 10-year bond yields held steady at 1.263% and Oil (WTI) fell three-quarters of a percent to $66.78/barrel.

In economic news, July Retail Sales came in far below expectations before the open yesterday. This was the proximate cause for the gap down open. That said, WMT and HD beat on revenue Tuesday while TGT and LOW both beat on revenue already today. So, the slowdown appears to be happening at “Mom and Pop stores” rather than at the big-box chains. Beyond Retail, July Industrial Production almost doubled forecasts, and June Business Inventories came in just as expected.

As mentioned, markets were relieved when Fed Chair Powell spoke Tuesday. In his speech, he did not touch on either the economy or Fed monetary policy. Instead, he focused on Covid-19 and its impact on US students, saying the challenges will mold them into an “extraordinary generation.” During the Q-A portion of the event, he did decry the impact of Covid on economic activity and the pace of vaccinations slowing, as well as talking about how digital currencies are interesting and becoming a more important question that the Fed is considering.

Following up on the Retail theme from yesterday, it appears that big beats on both lines by TGT and LOW are resulting in both premarket volatility and punishment. TGT in particular reported blow-out numbers but was down well over 5% in premarket trading. (The cause of this divergence is reportedly fear of slowing sales growth and Covid resurgence hurting next quarter’s numbers.) Meanwhile, after HD’s post-beat smackdown (losing over 4% yesterday), this morning GS has raised their target for the company above the rest of the analysts covering the name.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green as the region rebounded a bit from the Tuesday news of Chinese Internet Antitrust regulations. Shanghai (+1.11), Taiwan (+0.99%), and Shenzhen (+0.72%) led the gainers, with typical gains more like half of a percent. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest trading. The “Big 3” exchanges are all modestly red, but the bulk of the rest of the region are in the green. The FTSE is down 0.29%, DAX down 0.11%, and CAC down 0.34% at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are mixed and flat. The DIA is implying a -0.20% open, the SPY implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.10% open. 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.275% and Oil is up almost a percent to $67.23/barrel in early trading on a flat US dollar.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes July Building Permits and July Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and FOMC Minutes (2 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ADI, EAT, LOW, TGT, TJX, VIPS, WB, and ZIM before the open. Then after the close, BBWI, CSCO, YY, KEYS, NVDA, SPTN, and SNPS report.

Covid continues to make news as GS reinstituted mask mandates in the office, FB pushed out their return to the office date again, and the TSA extended travel mask mandates through mid-January. This is adding to market fears at the highs. However, we are not yet seeing any panic as we did in March 2020. Earnings continue to be stellar, but mortgage rates hit their highest level in a month (3.06% for a 30-year fixed) as both refinance and new mortgage demand dropped this week. All that said, despite the fear, yesterday’s candles in the major indices show that the bulls are simply not ready to roll over. All 3 major indices closed in the top third of their range, having driven price up off the lows following the gap-down. So, don’t mistake volatility for a changed trend just yet.

Trading rules and discipline are what separates long-term success and failure in trading. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control. Always manage your existing trades before chasing new ones. Trade with the trend until the trend is broken. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next trade. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by managing stops. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ALKS, LSI, FOLD, FAS, WBA, NAVI, NVAX, AMRN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Retail News and Earnings On Tap Today

August 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

US markets followed the rest of the world by gapping down at the open Monday. After a half-hour of getting their footing, bulls then stepped in to rally stocks the rest of the day, closing near the highs. This left us with a Bullish Engulfing candle in the DIA and a long-wick Hammer / Hanging Man candle in the QQQ. On the say, SPY gained 0.25% (to another all-time high close), DIA gained 0.33% (to another all-time high close), and QQQ gained 0.04%. The VXX was flat at 26.36 and T2122 fell but remained in mid-range at 44.65. 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 1.268% and Oil (WTI) dropped 1.5% to $67.40/barrel.

As we sit at all-time highs, it is worth noting that the S&P500 has now doubled since March of 2020. That makes the last (just under) 17 months the strongest bull rally since World War II…and not just by a little bit. The current market reached that “doubling” milestone in 35% less time than the next-fastest bull market. In fact, this rally has been three times faster than the average post-WWII rally.

In miscellaneous business news Monday, TSLA is under investigation again by Federal safety regulators after 11 accidents where TSLA cars using autopilot crashed into emergency vehicles, resulting in 17 injuries and one death. The stock fell more than 4% on that news. Meanwhile, TMUS confirmed Monday afternoon that it had been hit by a data breach that has exposed the full customer information of many T-Mobile users. Late Sunday night, hackers had boasted that they had taken the personal information of over 100 million people from the breach. The stock fell almost 3% on the confirmation.

Earnings season continues in retail today, as WMT and HD have both posted beats on both lines this morning. WMT cited strong grocery and back-to-school sales. As for HD, although they beat on revenue, they did report an almost 6% drop in transactions for the quarter. Markets seem to fear that this means an end to the stay-at-home DIY home improvement trend of the last 15 months.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the downside as China drafted new regulations aimed at anti-competitive activities in the Internet sector. Shenzhen (-2.34%), and Shanghai (-2.00%) saw the worst of the losses, but the losses were widespread. On the upside, only Malaysia (+1.38%) managed to gain more than a percent. In Europe, markets are far more mixed, but still lean to the red side as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.17%), DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (+0.56%) are typical of the spread with only Denmark (+0.80%) and Russia (+0.58%) managing significant gains at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap-down open. The DIA is implying a -0.59% open, the SPY implying a -0.47% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.37% open. 10-year bond yields are also down sharply to 1.223% and Oil is 0.83% lower in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday includes July Retail Sales (8:30 am), July Industrial Production (9:15 am), Jun Business Inventories (10 am), and Fed Chair Powell speaks (1:30 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AIT, HD, GRUB, SE, and WMT before the open. Then after the close, A, AMCR, BEST, JKHY, and LZB report.

Profit-taking is natural at all-time highs. This is especially true in the face of fear over covid resurgence (Monday a CCL cruise out of Texas reported 27 new cases found during its voyage), news of pressure on the Fed to at least begin tapering bond-buying, and economic news that shows the recovery weakening. However, trends remain bullish or consolidating at worst. In fact, just yesterday there was a report that funds are sitting on a trillion dollars of cash, hoping to buy into a 5% pullback. So, while we should look for short-term opportunities to the downside of that is what the market brings, don’t go “all in” on a bear trend taking shape…especially in the longer term.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Focus Turns to Retail With Big China Miss

August 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly higher on Friday and then ground sideways is a tight range the rest of the day. This left us with small-body, indecisive candles across the 3 major indices. However, both large-cap indices did this at a new all-time high close and the QQQ only missed a new all-time high close by a fraction of a percent. On the day, SPY gained 0.18%, DIA gained 0.05% (which accounts for it having a small black body candle), and QQQ gained 0.35%. The VXX was flat at 26.28 and T2122 remained in the mid-range at 58.26. 10-year bond yields closed down slightly at 1.359% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $68.90/barrel.

During the day Friday, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading came out at a pandemic-era low of 70.2. This was the lowest reading since 2011 and accounted for one of the largest one-month drops of the metric on record. This dramatic decline comes as covid (Delta variant) is out of control again, communities and businesses are reintroducing mask mandates and the bulk of major corporations are delaying “return to the office” and issuing company vaccination mandates.

With 10-year bond yields stuck in the 1.3% range and plunging consumer sentiment, the stock market continues its perpetual rally. It seems odd to be sitting at all-time highs on low and declining breadth. This weekend, Bloomberg said it believes the reason is the market-wide, record corporate profits that have been reported so far this quarter. It seems that despite inflation complaints, the pandemic recovery works in Wall Street’s favor. It does so by lowering inventories, reducing absolute payrolls/expenses, and giving pricing power to industries across the gamut. This week the focus turns to Retail as WMT, HD, LOW, TGT, KSS, M, FL, and ROST all report.

In miscellaneous stock news, CNBC reports Saudi Aramco is close to a deal that would give it a 20% stake in Indian Chemical (oil to chemical processing) for $25 billion. A deal for the same ownership stake fell through a couple years ago when oil prices crashed. Meanwhile, BHP is in talks to sell its petroleum business to Australian producer Woodside. SONO is also surging in premarket after the ITC rules that GOOGL had infringed on the Sonos audio technology patents.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the read as Chinese Retail data showed only an 8.5% year-on-year gain in July (well below the 11.5% forecast). Japan (-1.62%) and South Korea (-1.16%) led the region to the downside. Meanwhile, India (+0.21%) and Thailand (+0.19%) were the only real green in the area. In Europe, we see a similar pattern so far today. The FTSE (-0.95%), DAX (-0.40%), and CAC (-0.76%) are typical of the continent with only Russia (+0.49%) in the green at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a quarter of a percent gap down at the open. The DIA is implying a -0.25% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open and the QQQ implying a -0.24% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are also significantly lower (1.278%) with Oil (WTI) also 1.5% lower in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to UWMC before the open. The major earnings reports scheduled for after the close include EDR, FN, RBLX, and TME.

With no major earnings news this morning and only the NY Fed Mfg. Index in economic data, markets are very likely to follow the rest of the world. Fear over retail growth numbers indicating a slowing recovery at the same time the Fed is seeing pressure to begin bond-buying tapering will give markets a shiver. This is only going to be exasperated by growing concern over Delta variant impacts. However, there has been no stopping the bulls so far. At most, the bears have just given bulls a rest once in a while. So, caution is required. However, calling reversals is not a strategy for long-term success.

Stick with the trend until the trend is broken. However, if you missed a move, admit it and move on to the next trade. Never chase price on an entry. Remember to keep your losses small by managing stops and then consistently take profits when you have them. Above all, we have to maintain our discipline to trading rules. Focus on the process and on managing what you can control.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, BAC, AMRN, WEN, KBH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DIS and Delta Variant Lead News Today

August 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

July PPI came in much hotter than expected, but as expected Jobless claims kept falling. Markets shrugged off this news to open flat. Then after a fade the first hour, the bulls started a long, slow rally that lasted the rest of the day. This gave us strong candles in all 3 major indices, including a Dragonfly Doji in the DAI (to a new all-time high close), a strong bullish candle in the SPY (to another all-time high close), and a strong bullish candle in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.30%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX fell another 2% to 26.24 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory to 70.83. 10-year bond yields climbed to 1.361% and Oil (WTI) fell half a percent to $68.91/barrel.

After the close, DIS beat on both lines in its report. Despite its theme parks remaining unprofitable, the company managed to handily top estimates, delivering $17.02 billion in revenue and $0.80/share earnings for the quarter. One stand-out from the report was that the Disney+ streaming service added 1.5 million more subscribers than had been expected.

The delta variant is raising concerns in the logistics world. Which may have major follow-through impacts on the retail and manufacturing sectors in the fall. Chinese restrictions have caused the partial closure of the world’s third-largest port already. The Port of Los Angeles is already prepping for another dramatic decline in container volume. With container pricing up 220% already this year, the logjams that result from another set of port slowdown/shutdowns could have drastic impacts on shipping costs.

Early today the FDA authorized a vaccination booster shot for immunocompromised people. While the FDA said that fully-vaccinated healthy people are adequately protected, the debate continues on whether to expand booster shots or continue to apply the doses that would be required toward getting the unvaccinated population their first rounds of vaccine. However, Thursday afternoon Dr. Fauci (NIH) told a press briefing that it is likely that everyone will need a booster shot at some point.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Taiwan (-1.38%) was an outlier, but Shenzhen (-0.69%) and Singapore (-0.54%) paced the losses on global logistics concerns. However, India (+1.01%) and Australia (+0.54%) were among the few green exchanges in the region. In Europe, markets are mixed but lean to the green side so far on Friday. The FTSE (+0.33%), DAX (+0.43%), and CAC (+0.38%) are leading the continent higher at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.13% open, the SPY implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.02% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down a bit as the dollar is down so far today.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to July Imports and July Exports (both at 8:30 am) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DSEY and ERJ before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

With no major news planned this morning and the twin fears of covid impacts and inflation-caused Fed tightening, the bears have the wind at their back this morning. However, the bulls have been impossible to deny regardless of news for months. It seems like a classic case of “climbing the wall of worry” in recent days. Gaps, fades, and long periods of tight-range sideways grind have been a spot-on description of market action this summer. However, trends remain bullish (if flattened in the QQQ). So, while caution is required, predicting trend change is not a strategy for long-term success.

Keep your losses small by managing stops and consistently take profits when you have them. Never chase price on an entry. If you missed a move, admit it and move on to the next trade. Above all, maintain your discipline to your trading rules. Stick with the trend until the trend is broken. As mentioned, reversal predictors don’t tend to last long in the trading business. Focus on the process and managing what you can control. Discipline will see you through.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AAPL, MSFT, SOLO, MIME, ORCL, ASAN, PSA, CROX, TRGP, HUBS, EBON. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

PPI On Tap as Fed Members Call for Taper

August 12, 2021 by Ed Carter

The July CPI number came in exactly as expected and markets gapped up slightly after having feared seeing a hot number. The QQQ faded that gap immediately, but the entire market ground sideways in a very tight range from mid-morning on. This left us with a nice white candle in the DIA, a Dragonfly Doji type candle in the SPY and a black Spinning Top type candle in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.24% (a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.63% (a new all-time high close), and QQQ lost 0.17%. The VXX fell 2.65% to 26.80 and T2122 rose back into the overbought territory at 83.16. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 1.334% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.5% to $69.32/barrel.

During the afternoon, a bipartisan bill was introduced in the Senate that could have dramatic impacts on AAPL and GOOG. The bill, as introduced, would prevent the two behemoths from requiring App developers to use the app store payment system. It would also prevent AAPL and GOOG from limiting app developers from directly contacting app users with offers. Finally, it would prevent AAPL and GOOG from punishing app developers for offering better pricing anywhere outside of the app store. Although the impacts have not been quantified, if this were to become law both companies (and any other app store with 50 million users) would take a huge hit to a major cash cow division.

Also during the day, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said that the Fed should announce they are tapering bond-buying and should then begin tapering in October. It is worth noting that Kaplan has always been known as a “hawk” and that he is not a voting member at this time. However, this is the first FOMC member to put a firm timeline out in the public. KC Fed President George also said that she believes the Fed should move out of “extraordinary policy” and into a “neutral monetary policy” as the recovery continues. However, once again, George is not a voting member this year.

In another sign that the economy has recovered, US freight volumes (truck and rail) have returned to pre-pandemic levels. The Cass Freight Index for July showed volumes higher than July 2019. However, the numbers were down a bit from June. Interestingly (related to inflation), shipping prices fell faster than volumes in July (shipments declined 3% while costs came down 5%). The full index will be released later this morning.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red on modest trading. Shenzhen (-0.79%), Thailand (-0.64%), and Hong Kong (-0.53%) led the moves lower. Indonesia (+0.84%) was the only appreciable gainer. In Europe, markets are showing modest moves, but are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.15%), DAX (+0.38%), and CAC (+0.25%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a 0.14% gain, the SPY implying a 0.07% gain, and the QQQ implying a 0.04% gain at this hour. The dollar is flat, but 10-year bond yields are up to 1.357% in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes July PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and the WASDE (World Ag Supply and Demand Estimate) at noon. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARKO, BIDU, BR, BAM, CSIQ, DDS, ESLT, IQ, KELYA, MDP, MIDD, EYE, and OGN before the open. Then, after the close, ABNB, WISH, BAP, DASH, FLO, RKT, and DIS report.

This morning markets will look to July Producer Prices for another clue as to how soon the Fed might start taking away stimulus. Europe and Asia showed some caution as fears over Delta variant impact increase. However, the US Markets love new highs, and a drift higher continues. Beware of volatility as markets have been gapping and resting the rest of the day for a while now. So, even the new highs feel like they are range-bound.

Stick with the trend until the trend is broken. Reversal predictors don’t tend to last long in trading. Also, keep in mind that you don’t need to call market turns to be successful. Just keep your losses small by managing stops and consistently take profits when you have them. Never chase price on an entry. If you missed a move, admit it and move on to the next trade. Above all, stick to your trading rules. Focus on the process and managing what you can control. Discipline will see you through.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FOLD, FAST, AMD, NET, DOCU, KBH, PLTR, DDD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching