Tuesday gave us a modest gap lower at the open (down 0.10% in the SPY, up 0.01% in the DIA, and down 0.23% in the QQQ).  At that point, we saw a little follow-through by the Bears that bottomed out at about 10:40 a.m.  Then the Bull stepped in to rally us until shortly after 11 a.m.  From there, the Bears led a long, slow, wavy decline right into the close on the SPY and DIA.  Meanwhile, the QQQ ran back and forth between the late morning high and the Friday closing level.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with very little wick in the SPY and DIA (with the DIA crossing back just below its T-line and 50sma).  Meanwhile, the QQQ printed a white-bodied Spinning Top candle.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with only Energy (+0.10%) hanging onto green territory while Basic Materials (-0.1.93%) and Industrials (-1.74%) led the way lower.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.43%, DIA lost 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.13%.  VXX gained two-thirds of a percent to close at 21.35 and T2122 plummeted back down to the other side of the mid-range to just outside the edge of oversold territory at 21.48.  10-year bond yields shot up to close at 4.266% while Oil (WTI) gained another 1.39% to close at $86.74 per barrel. This all happened on extremely low volume (not much more than half of the 50-day average) in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, the Bears had control on the day, but it sure felt like just a tepid pullback after last week’s pre-holiday rally. 

The major economic news reported Tuesday was limited to July Factory Orders, which came in down but better than expected at -2.1% (compared to a forecast of -2.5% but much worse than the June reading of +2.3%).

In Fed news, Fed Governor Waller said Tuesday that the latest economic data was giving the FOMC space to wait and see whether it needs to raise rates again.  He went on to note that he currently sees nothing that would force the Fed to raise the cost of short-term borrowing again.  Waller said, “we have to wait and see if this inflation trend is continuing … I want see a couple of months continuing along this trajectory before I say we’re done doing anything.”  (For what it’s worth, the market is pricing in only an 8% chance of a rate hike in just over two weeks at the September meeting and just over a 40% chance of a hike at any of the three remaining scheduled 2023 meetings.)  Later in the day, the NY Fed said that it believes the neutral rate (neither restrictive or stimulative), known as R-star had fallen in Q2.  The Fed analysis pegged 0.57% as the R-star for Q2, down from 0.68% in Q1.  It is worth noting that analysts add the Fed target of 2% inflation to that R-star.  In this case, it would mean a 2.57% rate would be neutral for the economy.  Since the Fed currently has rates at 5.25% to 5.50%, that means the Fed is being very restrictive.

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In stock news, on Tuesday, WBD announced that the Hollywood writer’s strike will hit the company’s 2023 profits.  The company expects the impact to be $300 million – $500 million for 2023 reducing earnings to $10.5-$11 billion.  Elsewhere, STLA said that its testing shows that 24 of the company’s existing internal combustion engines work, without modification, on new e-fuels.  (E-fuels are synthetic fuels that blend existing standard fuels with carbon that has been captured and hydrogen created from sustainable electric sources like wind, solar, and nuclear.)  At the same time, UAL announced that it had resumed flight departures after a computer issue had forced them to have the FAA ground all non-departed flights earlier in the day.  By midday, MA denied reports that the company is planning to increase the fees charged merchants when a credit card is processed.  This came after the Wall Street Journal reported it had obtained documents and sources claiming that both MA and V have plans to raise those fees in October and April respectively.  After the close, Reuters reported that the head of GM manufacturing said that current UAW demands “have significant costs attached that would threaten our ability to maintain our manufacturing momentum.”  Also after the close, ENB announced they had agreed to acquire 3 utilities from D for a total purchase price of $14 billion ($9.4 billion in cash and $4.6 billion in assumed debt).  In the early evening, AAPL announced it had extended its deal with soon-to-IPO ARM in a deal that extends until 2040.  (AAPL uses ARM chips in all of its phones, tablets, and computers.  During the evening, COIN announced it would be launching a new lending platform aimed at large institutional investors.  (A regulatory filing shows that COIN has raised $57 million to fund the development and launch of this new platform.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, TSLA filed suit in China against Chinese chip designer Bingling, claiming the company violated its intellectual property rights.  (Bingling specializes in chip design related to battery efficiency optimization.) Later, the NHTSA announced a decision that 52 million airbag inflators should be recalled.  (The agency had first called for the recall in May, but the maker, Arc Automotive, refused.)  This would impact 12 automakers, including GM, F, STLA, TSLA, TM, HYMTF, MBGAF, BMWYY, VLKAF, and models from 2000 through early 2018.  The next step will be a public hearing in October to compel the recall.  After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FTC is planning to file an antitrust suit against AMZN later this month after the e-commerce giant refused to offer concessions related to its pricing and rules requiring third-party sellers to use “Fulfillment by Amazon” to avoid fees.

On Monday evening, ZS posted beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  The company also raised its forward guidance.  So far this morning, CNM reported in-line revenue but missed on the earnings line by a penny.  At the same time, EXPR missed on both the top and bottom lines.

US mortgage demand fell last week to a 27-year low, even as interest rates fell slightly.  Total applications for new home purchase loans fell two percent for the week (and were 28% lower than one year prior).  Meanwhile, refinancing applications were down five percent week-on-week (and were 30% lower than the same week in 2022).  This all took place while the average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan dropped from 7.31% to 7.21% (with closing points also decreasing from 0.73 to 0.69).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the downside.  Japan (+0.62%) was, by far, the biggest gainer.  Meanwhile, Australia (-0.78%) and South Korea (-0.73%) were by far the biggest losers on the session.  In Europe, things are more dicey at midday with only Belgium (+0.09%) hanging onto green territory.  On the other side, the CAC (-0.71%), DAX (-0.40%), and FTSE (-0.66%) lead the rest of the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down to 4.244% while Oil (WTI) is off a third of a percent to $86.38 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes July Imports, July Exports, and July Trade Balance (all at 8:30 a.m.), August S&P Global Composite PMI and August S&P Global Services PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and August ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), Fed Beige Book (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CNM.  However, after the close, AEO, PLAY, and GME report.   

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also have 3 Fed speakers (Harker at 10 am, Williams at 3:30 pm, and Bowman at 4:55 pm).  Finally, on Friday there are no major economic news reports.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ABM, DOOO, DBI, KFY, SAIC, TTC, DOCU, and RH.  On Friday, KR reports.

In China news, last week, while US Commerce Sec. Raimondo was visiting, China unveiled the latest Huawei smartphone.  A Canadian analyst firm acquired and tore one down. What they found was that China has made a massive leap in capability.  The Huawei phone uses a Chinese-made 7nm chip that was created using UEV (extreme ultraviolet lithography).  Prior to this, the most advanced chip China was known to create was 14nm and even the top Western companies only began using UEV lithography in 2019.  7nm still only yields 50% (half the chips made are bad), but this all means China is only one generation behind the West (TSM and INTC for example) rather than previous expectations that China was 3-4 generations behind.  It also means that the sanctions dating back to 2020, and greatly expanded by President Biden, have either been circumvented or made irrelevant by Chinese internal development. Elsewhere, overnight China announced it will increase its support of the property sector. This caused Chinese property developer stocks to spike higher with Evergrande up 83% and Sunac China Holdings up 68%.

In miscellaneous news, Oil settled at a 10-month high on Tuesday after both Russia and Saudi Arabia announced they are extending their voluntary supply cuts through the end of the year.  (Markets had expected another 1-month extension…not the 3-month extension announced.)  The continued strength of the US Dollar also helped oil, as bond rates rose again Tuesday (on a post-holiday flood of investment-grade corporate bonds that took away Treasury buyers and thus drove up bond yields).  Elsewhere, Turkey’s President Erdogan ended his talks with Russia’s Putin with any public progress on resuming the “Grain deal.”  Still, Erdogan said it would soon be possible to revive the deal and get Ukrainian grain to market. 

With that background, it looks like the Bears are looking to start the shortened week with a move lower. DIA even retested its T-line (8ema) in the premarket. However, it has the strongest early session candle bouncing up off the level while the other two major indices are giving us indecisive gap-down candles so far. The trend remains bullish with all three major index ETFs above a rising T-line, 17ema, and 50sma. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is sitting right at the upper edge of the midrange (or just outside of overbought territory if you prefer). So, both sides have the room to run, if they can muster the momentum.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets opened higher, gapping up 0.62% in the SPY, up 0.62% in the DIA, and up 0.67% in the QQQ.  However, that was the last we saw of the Bulls with all three major index ETFs selling off until about noon.  (QQQ had faded its morning gap by 10:35 am while SPY and DIA faded their own gaps by 11:50 am.)  From that low of the day at noon, the SPY and DIA drifted slowly and slightly higher the rest of the day (closing back inside the opening gap area) as QQQ rode waves sideways and did not quite reach the Thursday close level at the end of the day.  This action gave us a gap-up, inside day, black-body Spinning Top in the DIA.  At the same time, we got a gap-up, black-bodied candle in the SPY.  Meanwhile, the QQQ printed a gap-up, Dark Cloud Cover signal.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema) and did not even retest those levels.  The same goes for the DIA not retesting its 50sma, but to be fair, DIA is not far above either average. 

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.96%) far out front leading the way higher while Communications Services (-0.88%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.19%, DIA gained 0.34%, and QQQ lost 0.11%.  VXX dropped 1.35% to 21.21 and T2122 climbed back up to the edge of the overbought territory at 76.92. 10-year bond yields pulled back slightly to close at 4.18% while Oil (WTI) gained 2.89% to close at $86.05 per barrel. This happened on modestly below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, the bullish trend of the week continued but it felt tepid with a strong gap in one direction and then trading the rest of the day that went back the other way. 

The major economic news reported Friday included August Average Hourly Earnings which rose a bit less than expected at +4.3% (year-on-year), compared to a forecast of +4.4% and the July reading of +4.4%.  It is worth noting that the month-on-month Avg. Hourly Earnings also came in a bit below forecast at +0.2% versus both a forecast of +0.3% and the July value of +0.3%.  At the same time, August Nonfarm Payrolls grew more than predicted at +187k (compared to a forecast of +170k and the July reading of +157k).  Meanwhile, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls were reported much stronger than anticipated at +179k (versus a forecast of +150k and a July value of +155k).  The August Participation Rate increased to 62.8% (compared to the forecast and July numbers which were both 62.6%).  This drove a jump in the August Unemployment Rate to 3.8% (from the forecast and July readings which were both 3.5%).  Later the August S&P US Mfg. PMI came in at 47.9 (better than the 47.0 forecasted but lower than the July 49.0 value).  Then the August ISM Mfg. PMI was better than expected at 47.6 (versus a forecast of 47.0 and a July reading of 46.4).  At the same time, the August ISM Mfg. Price Index was reported well above predicted at 48.4 (compared to a 43.9 forecast and a 42.6 July reading).  So, to summarize, wages grew by slightly less than expected and jobs were also up much more than expected.  However, a pop in participation led to a pop in the unemployment rate.  Bloomberg characterized this as a “controlled cooling.”  Meanwhile, manufacturing was better than anticipated but still contracting both in the US and globally.

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In stock news, on Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Aramco is now strongly considering issuing a $50 billion secondary before the end of the year. If done, this would essentially double the world’s largest oil company’s outstanding shares.  This seems a bit odd since the company just increased dividend payouts by $10 billion in August.  However, the $50 billion will be used to bolster the Saudi sovereign wealth fund (which is a major investor in US markets).  Later, HOOD announced it would buy a block of stock formerly owned by Sam Banman-Fried (disgraced “wunderkind” indicted on crypto fraud and conspiracy charges).  The block was seized by the US government in November and is now held by the US Marshal Service.  The sale will be for $605.7 million or $10.96/share.  Elsewhere, entertainment stocks took a hit Friday as a major contract dispute between DIS and CHTR (second-largest cable TV provider) over the television distribution fees of their deal.  Later, TSLA announced a new, restyled Model 3 in China with a higher price.  At the same time, TSLA slashed the price of its premium vehicles, which include the “Full Self-Driving” software, by 14%-21%.  After the close, the New York Times reported that META may allow Facebook and Instagram users in Europe to pay in order to avoid getting advertisements on its platform. 

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday, the NHTSA announced that F will recall 169k vehicles to replace rearview cameras, update software on some cameras left in place, and will take a $270 million charge as a result.  Later, the FTC approved the AMGN $27.8 billion acquisition of HZNP.  This comes after the FTC ended its lawsuit to block the deal.  To obtain the agreement, AMGN agreed not to bundle its own drugs with those from HZNP.  Elsewhere, HUM joined the list of big pharma companies who are suing the US government.  In this case, HUM does not want Medicare to claw back billions of dollars of overcharges after audits found prescriptions for medications for conditions that are not even listed in the patient’s medical records.  HUM claims the rule allowing the clawbacks is “arbitrary and capricious.”  The Biden Administration says the clawbacks will save $4.7 billion over 10 years.  At the end of the day, NVS also sued the Dept. of Health and Human Services, hoping to prevent Medicare from negotiating drug prices for its 66 million enrollees.  One of NVS’s top-selling drugs (Enestro) was on the list of 10 drugs Medicare announced it would be negotiating prices on (as opposed to just accepting whatever the drug maker wants as it is now).  After the close, the US government sued EIX for negligence that led to a 2020 fire near Los Angeles, which burned 180 square miles.

In major IPO news, ARM revised its filing and is now pricing the much-anticipated chip stock between $47 and $51 per share.  Although this IPO is expected to raise around $5 billion, with SoftBank retaining 90.6% of the stock.  (The IPO underwriters do have the option to up to an additional $735 million of the stock, which would reduce SoftBank’s stake to 89.9%.)  FWIW, ARM is the architecture AAPL chose when it replace INTC chips with so-called AAPL-designed chips and ARM is the only real competitor to the x86 chip architecture used by the industry leaders INTC and AMD.  

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Japan (+0.30%), India (+0.24%), and Taiwan (+0.01%) managed to hold onto green while Hong Kong (-2.06%), Shanghai (-0.71%), and Shenzhen (-0.67%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with only four of the 15 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.39%), DAX (-0.24%), and FTSE (+0.09%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.09% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up briskly to 4.23% and Oil (WTI) is off by a third of a percent to $85.27 per barrel.

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is July Factory Orders (10 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  Then, after the close, the only earnings report that might be considered major is ZS.  

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we get July Imports, July Exports, July Trade Balance, August S&P Global Composite PMI, August S&P Global Services PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, August ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, August ISM Non-Mfg. Price Index, Fed Beige Book, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report.  Then Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed Balance Sheet are reported.  We also have 3 Fed speakers (Harker at 10 am, Williams at 3:30 pm, and Bowman at 4:55 pm).  Finally, on Friday there are no major economic news reports.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, CNM, AEO, PLAY, and GME report.  Then Thursday, we hear from ABM, DOOO, DBI, KFY, SAIC, TTC, DOCU, and RH.  On Friday, KR reports.

In miscellaneous news, the National Federation of Retailers said that their surveys lead them to predict there will be record back-to-school spending of $135 billion this year. That is up $24 billion (a 21.8% increase over 2022).   Elsewhere, the industry group that represents large private hedge funds filed suit against the SEC on Friday, claiming the agency went too far in requiring them to disclose their expenses and preventing them from giving different investors different deals (sweetheart deals).  Oddly, the group filed suit in New Orleans, so there was probably some judge shopping going on there.  Finally, a reminder that we have 9 days until the current UAW contracts with F, GM, and STLA expire.  Given the nature of brinksmanship, expect a lot of stories on this topic and the possibility of a major strike over those 9 days.

In world economic news, Bloomberg reported Friday that US corporate profits are on the rise again for the second straight quarter. Profits rose 4.5% in Q2 according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Their report showed US corporate profits grew from 13.8 percent to 14.3 percent of GDP in the second quarter.  So, in the US we are seeing what may be a “controlled cooling” with an extremely strong job market, and corporate profits on the rise.  (It is worth noting that GS has now lowered the probability of a US recession to 15%, down from 20% and far below the cycle-high probability of 60%.) However, in Europe, things are not as rosy. Inflation there is much worse than in the US and is remaining higher (stickier) due primarily to energy prices. At the same time, EU economic growth continues to be very weak leading many to start talking about potnetial “stagflation” in Europe.  Meanwhile, in China, the picture is grim.  The Chinese are now experiencing a banking sector that is under siege from a real estate crisis, and is also seeing widespread unemployment (especially among youth).

With that background, it looks like the Bears are looking to start the shortened week with a move lower. DIA even retested its T-line (8ema) in the premarket. However, it has the strongest early session candle bouncing up off the level while the other two major indices are giving us indecisive gap-down candles so far. The trend remains bullish with all three major index ETFs above a rising T-line, 17ema, and 50sma. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is sitting right at the upper edge of the midrange (or just outside of overbought territory if you prefer). So, both sides have the room to run, if they can muster the momentum.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, stocks gapped a bit higher with SPY gapping up 0.43%, DIA gapping up 0.46%, and QQQ gapping up 0.25%.  Markets then ground sideways until 10 am, when volatility kicked in as Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole prepared remarks led to some knee-jerking and then a 45-minute selloff that reached the lows of the day in all three major index ETFs about 5 minutes after 11 am.  However, the Bulls stepped in at that point, giving us a long, wavy rally that lasted until 3:30 pm when the SPY, IDA, and QQQ all hit their high of the day. Then we saw modest profit-taking the last 30 minutes across the board.  This action gave us indecisive, white-bodied, Bullish Harami Spinning Top candles in all three of the major index ETFs.  QQQ managed to close just above its T-line (8ema), while SPY closed just below its T-line, and DIA did not quite reach its T-line, even at the high of the day. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+0.81%) and Energy (+0.78%) leading the way higher Communications Services (-0.10%) being the only sector left in the red. At the same time, the SPY gained 0.70%, DIA gained 0.72%, and QQQ gained 0.78%.  VXX dropped 4.35% to 24.20 and T2122 climbed back up to the edge of oversold territory at 19.47. 10-year bond yields pulled back slightly to close at 4.231% while Oil (WTI) gained 1.27% to close at $80.05 per barrel.  This happened on slightly above-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, the volatility and bearish sentiment lasted about 45 minutes and then the day belonged to the Bulls heading into the weekend.  DIA has now taken out its uptrend (stretching back to October 2022).  QQQ is right at (and retesting) its uptrend line stretching back to January.  SPY remains the only one of the major index ETFs still above and not yet retesting its bullish trend stretching back to mid-October 2022.   

The major economic news reported Friday included August Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which came in a bit below expectations at 69.5 (compared to a forecast of 71.2 and the July reading of 71.6).  At the same time, August Michigan Consumer Expectations were also a bit low at 65.5 (versus the 67.3 forecast and the July 68.3 value).  In terms of forward-looking survey results, the August Michigan Inflation Expectations (over the next 12 months) were high at 3.5% (compared to the forecast of 3.3% and the July reading of 3.4%).  Finally, the August Michigan 5-year Inflation Expectation was 3.0% (versus the 2.9% forecast but in line with the July 3.0% value).

In Fed Speaker News, Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was the big news.  In his prepared remarks (released minutes prior to his speech, Powell said “It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so.”  His remarks continued, “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”  Still, he also left room for a continued pause in hikes in September by saying, “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”  Elsewhere, on the sidelines of the conference, Cleveland Fed President Mester also bolstered the hawk message, saying “We’ve come a long way, but you know, we don’t want to be satisfied because inflation remains too high.”  She continued, “We need to see more evidence to be assured that [inflation is] coming down in a sustainable way and in a timely way.”

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The other major central banker speaking Friday was European Central Bank President Lagarde.  She called for EU rates to be “higher for longer.” The ECB President said, “In the current environment, this means – for the ECB – setting interest rates at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target.”  Lagarde also went on to warn central bankers to fear wage increases “That could make inflation more persistent if expected wage increases are then incorporated into the pricing decisions of firms, giving rise to what I have called ‘tit-for-tat’ inflation.”  Interestingly, that argument seems to run contrary to both research and common sense.  In the US, by far the largest component of inflation in recent months has been the rise in the cost of shelter (rent and house prices), followed by the rise in energy prices, both of which are not driven by wages according to BLS data.  Finally, recent reports from economic researchers have said the main culprit behind inflation since 2019 has been the backlog of orders caused by the pandemic and the resulting cascade of supply chain issues.  In short, supplies fell much more sharply than demand around the world and stayed that way for two years.  So, Lagarde seems to be arguing that workers should accept stagnant wages and whatever inflation that comes every year, in order to avoid giving companies an excuse to raise prices even more than the wage increases they might demand. 

In stock news, on Friday ERIC announced that it forecasts $1 billion in patent cross-licensing revenue from its licensing agreements with Chinese phone maker Huawei.  At the same time, C reported that net outflows from its equity funds have continued.  C says there were $6.1 billion in outflows from equity funds during the week that ended August 23.  Elsewhere, RAD shares plunged Friday when the Wall Street Journal reported that it is getting ready to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.  (RAD closed down 51.04%.)  Later, Bloomberg reported that BA is close to restarting the delivery of 737 MAX jets to China after a four-year pause following the deadly crashes in 2019 and 2020.  By late afternoon, Reuters reported that BB had received an acquisition offer from private equity firm Veritas Capital.  (BB closed up more than 18% on the day.)  Meanwhile, UAW workers voted overwhelmingly (97% in favor) to authorize a strike against GM, F, and STLA any time after the current contract expires on September 14.  (As of now, the negotiations between the union and “Big 3” are contentious and not making much progress according to media reports.  Some economists say a strike on all three would cost the economy $500 million per day.)   Late in the day, Reuters reported that TWNK is exploring a sale after receiving takeover interest from major snack food makers.  This news caused a massive spike in the price of TWNK at 2:40 pm.  On the day, TWNK pulled back to close up 21.73%. 

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday the MA Supreme Court reversed a lower court ruling in a blow to HOOD.  The decision gives MA state regulators a significant victory in their enforcement action against the online broker, by ruling that the broker does have fiduciary responsibility.  (This was central to the MA case, which claims that HOOD breached its fiduciary responsibility by encouraging inexperienced investors to place risky trades via gamification.)  Elsewhere, AZN joined the other major pharma companies by filing suit against the US over Medicare drug price negotiation plans.  At the same time, the SEC reported that MMM has agreed to pay $6.5 million to settle the charges that it had violated the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act by bribing Chinese officials to curry favor.  Later the SEC also reported that WFC has agreed to pay $35 million in penalties to settle charges that the company overcharged its customers for advisory fees.  Late Friday evening, the FTC suspended its challenge of AMGN’s $27.8 billion acquisition of HZNP.  This pause is effective until September 18 and will give the agency time to consider whether it should settle the case rather than continue a lengthy court fight.  (AMGN may have offered some compromise since it announced “it would be pleased if its commitment were honored.”) Finally, on Sunday, MMM tentatively agreed to pay $5.5 billion to settle 300,000 lawsuits claiming defective MMM earplugs caused permanent hearing loss among US military veterans. The settlement would stop the need for MMM’s once-court-blocked attempt to avoid liability by shifting it to a subsidiary that was then declared bankrupt.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Malaysia (-0.02%) remained in the red while Japan (+1.73%), Shanghai (+1.13%), and Shenzhen (+1.01%) led the region strongly higher.  In Europe, we do see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.69%), DAX (+0.51%), and lagging FTSE (+0.07%) lead the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.239% and Oil (WTI) is off fractionally to $79.72 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell.  Then, after the close, HEI reports. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence, JOLTs Job Openings, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Q2 GDP, Q2 GDP Price Index, July Goods Trade Balance, July Retail Inventories, July Pending Home Sales, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, July PCE Price Index (year-on-year), July PCE Price Index (month-on-month), July Personal Spending, August Chicago PMI, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, August Average Hourly Earnings (month-on-month), August Average Hourly Earnings (year-on-year), August Nonfarm Payrolls, August Private Nonfarm Payrolls, August Participation Rate, August Unemployment Rate, August S&P US Mfg. PMI, August ISM Mfg. Employment, August ISM Mfg. PMI, and August ISM Mfg. Prices are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, BMO, BNS, BBY, BIG, CTLT, CHS, DCI, SJM, NIO, PDD, AMWD, HPE, HPQ, YY, and PVH report.  Wednesday, we hear from PDCO, CHWY, COO, CRWD, FIVE, GEF, OKTA, PSTG, CRM, VEEV, and VSCO.  On Thursday, ASO, CAL, CPB, CM, CIEN, DG, GCO, GMS, HRL, BEKE, OLLI, PSNY, SIG, TITN, UBS, ARMK, AVGO, DELL, LULU, NTNX, and VMW.  On Friday, DDL reports.

In miscellaneous news, CNBC reported Saturday that with 9 million open jobs (in June) and only 5.8 million unemployed workers, a serious imbalance exists. Economists have suggested easing immigration policy to help address the problem, which an economist from the Cato Institute (Libertarian) estimates is costing the US “something like $1 trillion a year” in lost GDP.  (The current immigration process takes about 5 years for a person to legally enter the US and join the workforce.)  However, a survey taken by that same institute found Americans are split on easing immigration restrictions.  As you probably expected, that split is largely along political lines.  Elsewhere, CNBC also reported Saturday that AMZN is expanding its biometric authorization process.  The company already has 200 Whole Foods Market stores that allow customers to have cards on file and then authorize payments by scanning their palms.  AMZN says it will expand that number to 500 stores by year-end. Finally, it seems a primary driver of Asian (and probably European) markets are Chinese measures announced Sunday. China reduced the tax on stock trades, eased restrictions on executives selling shares, and lowered deposit ratios for margin trading. All the moves were to encourage more trading in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Shenzhen. However, while there was a pop, many investors were looking for stronger action to actually stimulate the Chinese economy.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are retesting the T-line (8ema) in all three major index ETFs in the early session. The QQQ candle is showing some bullishness (not just a modest gap higher) while the two large-cap index ETFs are much smaller premarket candles. The bulls still have a lot of work ahead of them since in addition to the 8ema, the 50sma remains overhead (we are still looking at a Blue Ice Failure pattern in all three). There is also a number of levels created by previous swing points to overcome. In other words, the Bears have the momentum. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from their T-line and the T2122 indicator is sitting right at the upper edge of the oversold territory. So, both sides have room to run but the Bulls obviously have more slack if they could manage a rally.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged a bit at the open following NVDA’s blowout results the night before.  SPY gapped up 0.38%, DIA gapped down 0.11%, and QQQ gapped up 0.94%.  DIA did its best to catch up by rallying sharply the first 30 minutes of the day.  However, QQQ was already throwing the mega-caps a curve by reversing and selling off hard at that same time.  Things got back in sync at 10 am as all three major index ETFs then went on to sell off the rest of the day, closing very near the low of the day.  This action gave us large, black, Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ.  Both of those index ETFs also crossed back below their T-line (8ema) in the process.  For its part, DIA failed a retest of its own T-line on a large, black-bodied candle with a large upper wick.  DIA also fell down out of its four-day consolidation.  All three also retested and failed their 50sma, thus giving us a Blue Ice Failure pattern (with the exception that only QQQ has enough space left down to its 200sma to qualify as a Blue Ice Failure).  

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.17%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.92%) way out front leading the way lower with Financial Services (-0.32%) and Communications Services (-0.35%) holding up better than the other sectors. At the same time, the SPY lost 1.39%, DIA lost 1.10%, and QQQ lost 2.14%. VXX popped up 4.12% to 25.30 and T2122 dropped back down into the oversold territory to 10.06.  10-year bond yields jumped back up to close at 4.241% while Oil (WTI) was flat to close at $78.88 per barrel.  This happened on slightly above-average volume in the QQQ and average volume in the SPY and DIA.  So, the profit-taking off the opening pop was dramatic and lasted all day Thursday.  DIA has now taken out its uptrend (stretching back to October of 2022).  QQQ is right at (and retesting) its uptrend line stretching back to January.  And SPY remains the only one of the major index ETFs still above and not yet retesting its bullish trend stretching back to mid-October 2022.     

The major economic news reported Thursday included July Durable Good Orders, which came in lower than expected at -5.2% (compared to a forecast of -4.0% and even worse than the June reading of -4.4%).  This included July Core Durable Goods Orders that were reported better than expected at +0.5% (versus a forecast of +0.2% which was also the June value).  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 230k (versus a forecast of 240k and the previous week’s 240k number).  Later, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet continued to show its slow reduction as it shrank from $8.146 trillion to $8.139 trillion.  In related news, it is also worth noting that the St. Louis Fed said Thursday that the Fed may need to stop shrinking its balance sheet at least temporarily.  Since the government has issued $1 trillion in bonds since June, money market funds have been holding back on their purchases of bonds.  That leaves the Fed as the other major potential buyer.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In Fed Speak news, Philly Fed President Harker told CNBC Thursday morning that he doubts the FOMC will need to raise rates again.  Harker said, “Right now I think that we’ve probably done enough.”  He went on to say, “I’m in the camp of let the restrictive stance work for a while, let’s just let this play out for a while, and that should bring inflation down.”  However, Harker was not ready to predict when the Fed might start cutting rates. Just a bit later, Boston Fed President Collins said something very similar when she told Yahoo Finance, “We may be near, we could even be at a place where we would hold and not raise rates further … But certainly, additional increments are possible, and we need to look holistically and be really patient right now and not try to get ahead of what the data will tell us as it unfolds.”  (Both did their interviews on the sidelines of the Jackson Hole Central Banker Conference.)  Both of them also seemed to embrace the recent bond yield rate spikes as something that could help the Fed by increasing longer-term borrowing costs and therefore cooling the economy.

In stock news, TMUS said Thursday that it will be cutting 5,000 jobs (about 7% of its workforce).  The company cited rising costs, cheaper phone plan offerings, and the competitive phone market.  Elsewhere, MA will end its partnership with crypto exchange Binance (which had covered four countries).  In other finance news, the Wall Street Journal reported that a group of funds (led by BLK) that have lent money to WE are exploring the possibility of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.  At the same time, RY announced it would be cutting 1,800 jobs as a cost-cutting measure.  In auto industry news, STLA announced it is expanding its “manufacturer-approved pre-owned vehicle” sales program to the US.  (The program started in Europe in 2019.)  Meanwhile, GOOGL said Thursday that it will provide more information on targeted ads and give researchers more access to data in order to come into compliance with new EU online content rules.  After the close, HE plummeted as much as 24% after announcing it was suspending its dividend after subsidiaries were forced to draw $370 million from their revolving credit lines in the wake of the massive Maui fires.  Also after the close, LMT was awarded a $2.7 billion contract by the US Navy to build 35 additional CH-53K helicopters.  At the same time, GM announced it has agreed to increase the pay of workers at its OH battery plant by an average of 25%.  In addition, Reuters reports that AMZN is in talks with DIA over a potential streaming deal with DIS’s ESPN unit.

In stock legal and regulatory news, late Wednesday night, the SEC made a court filing saying that investors who lost money (victims) when Elon Musk tweeted about taking TSLA private will soon begin receiving payouts, recouping 51.7% of their losses.  At the same time, the TX Public Utilities Commission announced that TSLA will provide the state with two “virtual power plants” (drawing power from people who have TSLA Powerwall batteries and compensating them for the electricity).  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that SAVE has agreed to pay up to $8.25 million to settle a class action suit over hidden carry-on baggage fees.  At the same time, WHR agreed to pay $11.5 million to the US Consumer Protection Product Safety Commission over failure to report glass cooktops that could turn themselves on posing burn and fire hazards.  Later, the NHTSA told Reuters that it would resolve its two-year investigation into TSLA Autopilot in a public announcement soon.  The spokesman declined to describe what that resolution will be or exactly when “soon” will come.  Meanwhile, starting today, the big tech names will be forced to comply with the new EU Digital Service Act which imposes stricter rules on content moderation, user privacy, and transparency.  These include META, AAPL, and GOOGL. (AMZN is fighting its inclusion on the list of companies covered in court.)  Failure to comply could result in fines of up to 10% of total global sales per infraction.  After the close, a US District Court judge dismissed a lawsuit against GOOGL that had been brought by the Republican National Committee which had claimed the tech giant had maliciously marked RNC mass emails as spam.  Also after the close, TD said it expects to be fined and other non-monetary penalties from US authorities over a money laundering investigation.

After the close, AFRM, INTU, MRVL, JWN, ULTA, and WDAY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GPS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that AFRM, INTU, and WDAY raised their forward guidance. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red.  Japan (-2.06%) and Taiwan (-1.72%) were way out front leading 10 of the region’s 12 exchanges lower.  In Europe, the opposite picture is taking shape at midday.  14 of the 15 bourses in the region are squarely in the green while the CAC (+0.74%), DAX (+0.56%), and FTSE (+0.49%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing to a green start to the day here as well.  The DIA implies a +0.34% open, the SPY is implying a +0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.10% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 4.249% and Oil (WTI) is up just over one percent to $79.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations all at 10 am.  Fed Chair Powell also speaks at 10:05 am as the Jackson Hole Conference continues.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day (either before the open or after the close).

In miscellaneous news, both the TX and Central State electric grids warned customers of potential power outages as the brutal heatwave continues to pound much of the US.  Both grid operators urged voluntary power conservation to avoid rolling outages.  In other news, the BRICS group invited some more oil to the party as they formally asked Saudi Arabia, Iran, and UAE to join.  Rounding out the new countries invited were Argentina, Egypt, and Ethiopia. 

As mentioned above, Fed Chair Powell speaks just after 10 am Eastern this morning.  Markets are very likely to parse through every word and facial gesture he delivers looking for a clue to the path for interest rates.  (This is especially true after two dovish statements from Fed members delivered in interviews on the sideline of the conference Thursday.)  If you want to get a little wonky, see if Powell addresses an abstract metric known as “R*” (R-star).  This is not the target interest rate, but instead, it is the rate at which Fed policy is theoretically neutral (neither restricts or stimulates the economy).  Since 2019 that rate has been 2.5% and prior to that the R* was 3.5% going back until 2015.  While Powell will be the main show on Friday, EC President Lagarde also speaks at 3 pm Eastern.  (This will be her first public remarks since the EC’s July rate hike.) 

With that background, it looks like the premarket is modestly bullish after Thursday’s big bearish candles. None of the major index ETFs have done enough premarket work to be retesting their T-lines (8ema) or 50sma. So we are still looking at a Blue Ice Failure pattern in all three with huge Bearish Engulfing candles in the SPY and QQQ (which could both also be working on Dreaded-h patterns (the opposite of a J-hook). In other words, the Bears have all the chart patterns in their favor this morning. So, the short-term downtrend break is back in question for the SPY and QQQ, while DIA has resumed its own move lower. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are too far extended from their T-line but the T2122 indicator is back down well into the oversold territory. So, both sides have some room to run but the Bulls obviously have more slack if they could manage a rally. Finally, don’t forget it is Friday with the Jackson Hole Conference continuing Saturday (although we do not EXPECT much news then). We also have the long weekend news cycle. So, prepare your account for the weekend by taking some money off the table (it is Payday after all) and moving stops, hedging, or lightening up your positions.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

It was the Bulls Day on Wednesday.  SPY opened 0.24% higher, DIA opened 0.15% higher and QQQ gapped up 0.32%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs followed through with a steady rally until almost 2 pm.  Then all three traded sideways the rest of the day with a slight profit-taking trend.  This action gave us gap-up, large-body, white candles in all three.  The SPY crossed back above its T-line (8ema) and with a tiny tick on top is now just below its 50sma.  The QQQ also crossed back up through its T-line but had a slightly larger upper wick than the SPY.  QQQ is also just below its 50sma and you might even say it tested the 50 at the high of the day.  DIA is still in more of a sideways consolidation than a rebound rally like the other two majors.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.08%) way out front leading the way higher followed by Financial Services (+1.20%) while the lagging sector was Energy (+0.11%).  At the same time, the SPY gained 1.08%, DIA gained 0.52%, and QQQ gained 1.58%.  VXX was down 3.34% to close at 24.30 and T2122 climbed back out of the oversold territory into the lower half of the mid-range at 39.42.  10-year bond yields plummeted lower to close at 4.194% while Oil (WTI) fell 1.48% to close at $78.46 per barrel.  This happened on well-below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, the rally relationship has resumed, with QQQ and SPY leading the market higher while DIA lags again.  The question is whether or not this is just a relief rally in the month-long pullback.  Either way, Wednesday belonged to the Bulls.      

The major economic news reported Wednesday included Building Permits, which came in slightly above expectation at 1.443 million (compared to a forecast of 1.442 million and a July reading of 1.441 million).  This amounted to a 0.1% month-on-month increase versus the July value which itself was down 3.7% from June.  Later, the Preliminary August S&P US Mfg. PMI came in light at 47.0 (compared to a forecast calling for 49.3 and a July reading of 49.0).  At the same time, the Preliminary August Services PMI was reported at 51.0 (versus a forecast of 52.3 and a July value of 52.3).  In addition, the Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI was 50.4 (compared to a 52.0 forecast and a 52.0 July value).  After that, the July New Home Sales came in higher than expected at 714k (versus a 705k forecast and a 684k June reading).  This amounted to a 4.4% increase in July, which was better than the +0.2% increase anticipated and far better than June’s decline of 2.8%.  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories followed the API report from Tuesday night, showing a 6.135-million-barrel drawdown (compared to a predicted 2.850-million-barrel draw and even the prior week’s 5.960-million-barrel drawdown of inventory.

In Russian news, Putin’s unofficial warlord Yevgeny Prigozhen was killed along with the other co-founder of Wagner Private Military Company (Dmitry Utkin).  Most saw this plane crash coming as the inevitable result of Wagner’s June uprising against Putin.  Still, it is notable. Elsewhere, Reuters reported Wednesday that Russian central bank authorities are working on a presidential decree that may give that country’s retail investors a way to unblock their frozen assets held in overseas accounts.  The scheme would allow foreign investors to buy the assets held abroad (3.5 million Russians hold almost $16 billion in foreign accounts that are now frozen).  The idea is that non-Russian investors would buy the frozen Russian account assets (presumably at a discount) in exchange for assets held in non-frozen accounts that can be repatriated to Russia.  It’s unclear whether Western sanctions would now (or could be made to) block this move.  (One would think this to be the case, otherwise, the Russian oligarchs surely would have done this 18 months ago.) It is also unclear if there is some sort of unmentioned reciprocal agreement at play allowing Western business assets frozen in Russia to be released.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, research firm Antenna reported that NFLX continued its strong growth in new subscribers in July (not as strong as June’s record increase, but still 2.6 million is a significant gain in subscribers for a month).  NFLX was up 3.48% on the day of that news.  At the same time, a Business Insider report said TSLA cut its production targets in Germany by 13% (with plans to cut it more later).  The current rate of output is now 4,350 per week from the TSLA Berlin plant.  Simultaneously, Reuters reported that NVO has chosen TMO as a second contract manufacturer for its hit weight loss drug Wegovy.  In the early afternoon, JNJ announced its Janssen division would be closing down much of its vaccine research and development operations.  (The JNJ COVID-19 vaccine did not perform as well as competitors from PFE and MRNA.)  Later, the UAW announced workers at the major F Louisville plant have voted to authorize a strike with three weeks left before the current labor contract expires.  In other auto industry news, GM said they are halting production at their Ft. Wayne assembly plant for a week as they continue to wrestle with part supply issues.  (GM blamed the shortage on a lack of railcars and truck drivers which led to a massive buildup of partially completed vehicles at the plant.)  In M&A news, private company Esmark announced it has rescinded its offer to buy X for $35/share.  In a statement, Esmark said it will respect the USW Steel Workers Union position (the union is supporting CLF buying X for a lower $7.3 billion total price).  After the close, GM announced it was cutting 940 jobs in AZ and would cease its IT operations in that state to reduce costs.  (80-90 of these layoffs come from the self-driving software team.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that a new supplier quality problem has been identified related to 737 MAX production.  The new problem will delay near-term deliveries of those planes and is likely to impact annual production goals.  AAPL announced after the close that it supports the CA state “Right to Repair” bill as currently written, specifically citing that the bill “protects consumer safety, device security, and manufacturers intellectual property rights.”  (This almost assuredly means the bill has been transformed into something worthless to consumers and non-AAPL repair businesses.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, OSHA said Wednesday that it’s investigating a chemical spill at a lithium battery plant owned by GM and South Korea’s LG Energy.  This is one of six open OSHA investigations into that plant’s operations.  (In a possibly related case, after the close, Bloomberg reported that the joint venture is working on a deal to give employees at that plant a 33% raise plus back pay.)  At mid-morning, drugmaker Mallinckrodt (MNKKQ) told Reuters it expects to file for a second bankruptcy in the next few days.  This comes after the drugmaker reached a deal with victims who had agreed to accept $1 billion less in their settlement with the company over opioid distribution practices.  Later, a court in Kenya ordered META into mediation in the company’s dispute with 184 content moderator employees and two contractors who were suing the company for unfair dismissal (because they were organizing a union).  The court ruled META has 21 days to reach an agreement to resolve the dispute with the plaintiffs.  In the afternoon, Reuters reported that UAL has agreed to a $30 million settlement after one day of trial in a case related to their treatment of a quadriplegic man in a vegetative state.  Late in the day, a coalition of environmental activist groups sent a letter to the SEC, pushing to stop Brazilian meatpacker JBSAY from being listed (issuing an IPO) on the NYSE.  After the close, GS, JPM, MS, and UBS agreed to pay $499 million to settle an antitrust lawsuit from investors, which had accused them of conspiring to stifle competition through their stock lending practices.  Also after the close, the FCC announced it would be releasing the public comments made in a bid to deny the broadcast license renewal of the FOX TV station in Philadelphia.  Comments made by the grassroots group “The Media and Democracy Project” have asked for denial based on FOX’s false and harmful information (lies) about the 2020 election. FOX dismissed the petition as frivolous and without merit, but the petitioners mentioned FOX’s $787.5 million defamation case settlement brought by Dominion Voting System and FOX internal communications released related to that case that proved the company knew the results of the election were valid but repeatedly lied about it anyway and knew that could lead to something like the January 6 riot attempting to stop official vote counting.  At the same time, an FDA panel of independent experts voted against the approval of an MDT blood pressure treatment device. 

After the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVDA, SNOW, and SPLK all beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that ADSK, GES, NVDA, and SPLK all also raised their forward guidance.  It is also worth noting that there were some major surprise beats on earnings with NVDA surprising by 29.2%, SPLK surprising by 57.8%, GES surprising by 84.6%, and SNOW surprising by 120%.  However, the most notable beat of the day was NVDA’s 170% jump in sales (year-on-year) resulting in a 27% beat on revenue…driven by AI processing demand (whose division sales more than doubled). NVDA also expects AI-related demand to continue increasing, more than doubling again in 2024. That is likely to drive markets (especially QQQ and SPY) this morning.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on the back of the AI rally.  Hong Kong (+2.05%), South Korea (+1.28%), and Taiwan (+1.17%) led the region higher.  Only New Zealand (-0.60%) and India (-0.29%) were in the red.  In Europe, we see a very similar picture taking shape at midday.  Only Russia (-0.76%) and Finland (-0.05%) are in the red, while the CAC (+0.46%), DAX (+0.36%), and FTSE (+0.35%) lead the region higher.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a mixed open.  The DIA implies a flat open of -0.02%, the SPY is implying a +0.64% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.27% open at this hour.  At the same time, bonds are back up a bit to 4.214% and Oil (WTI) is up fractionally to $79.04 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes July Durable Goods Orders and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Fed Balance Sheet and Bank Reserve Balances with the Fed (both at 4:30 pm).  The Central Bankers Jackson Hole Conference also starts at 8 am.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BURL, DLTR, NTES, WOOF, RY, TD, and WB.  Then, after the close, GPS, INTU, MRVL, JWN, ULTA, and WDAY report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed Chair Powell also speaks as the Jackson Hole Conference continues.

In terms of earnings reports, there are no earnings reports scheduled for Friday.

In miscellaneous news, retail industry analyst Susquehanna reported that big retailers have already returned to a cost-cutting focus by going back to a just-in-time inventory model.  Susquehanna analyzed the last 20 years of ocean container ship imports into the US looking for trends. They found that the “big 4” big box retailers (WMT, TGT, HD, and LOW) all reduced their inventories by more than 4% in Q2, which was the largest reduction since 2015.  The analyst is predicting (based on discussions with retailer management) Q3 pre-holiday inventory builds will be larger than last year’s 6% quarter-on-quarter increase but far less than the 14% average from pre-COVID years.

In late-breaking news, Turkey surprised markets this morning with an unexpectedly large rate hike of 7.5%, bringing that country’s main rate to 25%.  The Dollar fell against the Turkish Lira almost immediately.  Elsewhere, privately-held Subway (sandwich shops) sold itself to privately-held Roark Capitol.  Roark already owned Dunkin Donuts, Baskin-Robbins, Sonic, Arby’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, and a host of other restaurant industry brands.  Finally, Bloomberg reported that China has a major $9 trillion “off the books” debt problem.  It seems that this is the amount of debt held by Chinese local governments through state-owned companies set up to borrow on behalf of province and local government entities.  The problem is that the local governments have not been able to raise enough income (tax revenue) to pay the interest on that $9 trillion in hidden debt.  So, banks are unwilling to lend to those entities and investors are not buying bonds issued by those financing companies.  If there were a default by any of those shadow funding agencies, China’s entire $60 trillion financial system would be at risk of collapse.

So far this morning, BURL, DLTR, FRO, RY, and SN all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, NTES and WB missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WOOF and TD beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  It is worth noting that WOOF lowered its forward guidance.   

With that background, it looks like the premarket is giving us a similar feel as the Wednesday normal session. SPY and especially QQQ gapped higher and will open with significant gains. Meanwhile, DIA is stuck in the mud and not participating. It is interesting that all three of their premarket candles are indecisive candles (after the gaps from the two broader ETFs). SPY and QQQ are above their T-line (8ema) while DIA remains just below its own T-line. The morning gap will also see the QQQ well up above its 50sma and the SPY retesting its 50sma from below. So, the short-term downtrend has been broken in the SPY and QQQ, but the DIA remains in just a consolidation. Of course, the much longer-term trend is still bullish since last year but that has been pushed hard recently by the Bears. As far as extension goes, the morning gap may have QQQ a little extended above its T-line but the other two are not far from that average. The T2122 indicator is also back in its mid-range, so there is plenty of room to move in either direction, say it with me, if we can find the momentum.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, the SPY and QQQ gapped up while the DIA opened flat.  SPY opened 0.39% higher, QQQ opened 0.70% higher and DIA opened up only 0.01%.  However, at that point, all three major index ETFs spent the rest of the day in a slow downtrend.  (It is worth noting that QQQ’s downtrend was more volatile and roller-coaster-like than the large caps, but all three made the same slow trip lower.)  This action gave us large-body, black candles in all three.  The SPY printed a Dark Cloud Cover candle that failed a retest of its T-line (8ema).  QQQ also failed a retest of its 8ema but failed to did not print a candle signal.  For its part, the DIA did not even get close enough to test its T-line again but did print an Evening Star signal.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the red with Financial Services (-0.92%) out front leading the way lower while Utilities (+0.30%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.27%, DIA lost 0.50%, and QQQ lost 0.14%. VXX was basically flat to close at 25.14 and T2122 climbed slightly gain but remained well into the oversold area at 10.00.  10-year bond yields rebounded after they opened lower to close at 4.332% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.58% to close at $80.25 per barrel.  This happened on a well-below-average volume in all three of the major index ETFs.  So, volatility reigned in the morning, but the Bulls took over for the second half of the day.      

The major economic news reported Tuesday was limited to July Existing Home Sales which came in a bit below expectation at 4.07 million (compared to a forecast of 4.15 million and a June reading of 4.16 million).  That corresponded to a 2.2% decrease month-on-month coming after a 3.3% month-on-month decline in June.  (Curiously, at the same time, the median home price rose 1.9% to $406,700, just the fourth time the average has topped $400,000.)  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report showed a smaller-than-expected draw on inventories at 2.418 million barrels (versus a forecast calling for a drawdown of 2.900 million barrels but much less than the prior week’s 6.195-million-barrel drawdown). 

In Fed speak, Richmond Fed President Barkin told Reuters Tuesday that the Fed needs to be aware of the possibility that the US economy may accelerate rather than slow in the coming months.  If it does, that would have implications for the FOMC’s fight against inflation.  He noted that US Retail Sales were stronger than expected in July and Consumer Confidence is also rising.  Barkin said, “The reacceleration scenario has come onto the table in a way that it really wasn’t three or four months ago.”  He went on to say, “If I got convinced that inflation was remaining high and demand was giving no signal that inflation was going to come down, that would make the case (for further tightening of monetary policy).”  Related to bond rates, Barkin told Reuters, “It doesn’t strike me that having a 10-year (bond) rate over 4 percent is somehow wildly inappropriate.” 

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In stock news, META announced a new AI model that can transcribe and translate 100 languages on Tuesday morning.  The model (SeamlessM4T) offers speech recognition as well as all the speech-to-text, text-to-speech, text-to-text, and speech-to-speech translation modes.  In other META news, the company rolled out a web-based version (pre-announced a day earlier) of Instagram Threads.  Later, IBM announced it had agreed to sell its weather business to private equity firm Francisco Partners for an undisclosed amount.  (The Wall Street Journal previously reported IBM was seeking to sell the unit at a $1 billion valuation.)  Elsewhere, VMW (in the process of being bought by AVGO) announced it has partnered with NVDA to launch a set of tools that will allow customers to create their own AI applications on NVDA hardware running in their own data centers (as opposed to buying AI processing from cloud vendors like MSFT and AMZN).  In the afternoon, industry watchers said that TSLA’s 13,900 new insurance registrations in China last week added to the 14,000 from the week prior and 12,800 the week before suggests a strong August sales pace for TSLA, at least in China.  In M&A drama news, CLF demanded Tuesday afternoon that X reveal all of its buyout offers.  X has previously rejected CLF’s $7.3 billion cash-and-stock offer and has also received offers (that we know of) from MT and private firm Esmark.  Just after the close, the Teamsters announced their 340,000 UPS workers had approved the new 5-year contract recently agreed between the union and company.

In stock legal and regulatory news, some AAL Pilots are fighting their union in the hope of extending their flying careers.  The union opposed the bill in Congress (championed by airlines) that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67.  However, some pilots are going around their union (with the help of airlines) to lobby Congress on behalf of the bill.  (An airline industry group says the law could “save” the industry 5,000 pilots over the next two years.  Critical amidst an industry-wide pilot shortage.)  At midday, the US Dept. of Justice announced that NMR had agreed to pay a $35 million fine, pay $808k in restitution, and take responsibility in written form in order to avoid prosecution for lying to customers about bond prices.  (NMR had previously been fined $1.5 million and paid $20.1 million in restitution in a civil settlement with the SEC for the same fraud.)  At the same time, the US Consumer Finance Protection Bureau filed suit against CURO, alleging the lender had pushed 10,000 struggling borrowers to simply refinance their short-term loans to increase their fees.  Later, a “reverse discrimination” lawsuit was filed against GCI, but five current and former employees who claim the newspaper publisher discriminates against white staff in order to fulfill diversity goals.  (No damage figure was provided.)  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that FORG will be acquired by private equity firm Thoma Bravo after the US Dept. of Justice declined to challenge the deal.  Later in the afternoon, MO filed a complaint with the US International Trade Commission seeking to ban the import of rival Juul products, which MO claims infringe on two of its patents.  Then, the US Interior Dept. approved a 704-megawatt wind farm off Rhode Island to be owned and operated jointly by DOGEF and ES.  At the close, the US Dept. of Health and Human Services awarded $1.4 billion in grants, including $326 million for REGN to develop next-generation therapies and vaccines for future COVID-19 variants.

In volatility news, Vietnamese electric vehicle maker VFS (VinFast) continued its massively volatile ride in the six days since its IPO.  On Tuesday, VFS closed up almost 109%after having been up more than 167% at one point in the session.  At the same time, SRE fell almost 50% Tuesday while FN climbed 31.58% by the close.

After the close, LZB, TOL, and URBN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is also worth noting that TOL raised its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side.  Taiwan (+0.85%), New Zealand (+0.75%), and Japan (+0.48%) led the more plentiful gaining exchanges.  Meanwhile, China is still on the struggle bus with Shenzhen (-2.14%) and Shanghai (-1.34%) pacing the losers.  In Europe, stocks are mixed with more of the bourses in the red than in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.14%), DAX (-0.03%), and FTSE (+0.64%) are typical of the spread with only Switzerland (+1.00%) moving more than a percent in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, markets are looking to open just on the green side of flat so far.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.06% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have backed down strongly again to 4.259%, and Oil (WTI) is down 1.52% to $78.42 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Building Permits (8 am), Preliminary August S&P US Mfg. PMI and Preliminary August S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 am), July New Home Sales (10 am), and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ANF, AAP, ADI, BBWI, DY, FL, GRAB, KSS, LANC, PTON, and WSM.  Then, after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVDA, SNOW, and SPLK report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get July Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet, and Bank Reserve Balance with the Fed.  The Central Bankers Jackson Hole Conference also starts.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed Chair Powell also speaks as the Jackson Hole Conference continues.

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, BURL, DLTR, NTES, WOOF, RY, TD, WB, GPS, INTU, MRVL, JWN, ULTA, and WDAY report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, accounting firm Ernst & Young reported that in 2022, for the first time ever, US oil and gas companies paid out more in earnings to shareholders than they spent on exploration and field development.  The E&Y report said the top 50 US oil and gas producers spent $58.8 billion on buybacks and dividends while only spending $55.1 billion on exploration and development.  The report predicted the trend will continue as well as seeing more money plowed into acquisitions rather than actual finding and producing oil and gas.  Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Tuesday evening that bond sales by US financial institutions topped $2 trillion so far this year, reaching that milestone in the fastest time ever. This comes the same day that S&P downgraded 10 US regional banks, including KEY and CMA.  Finally, mortgage demand dropped to a 28-year low as interest rates spiked last week.  The national average rate for a 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan spiked to 7.31%.  This caused new purchase loan applications to fall 5% for the week while refinance applications dropped 3%.

So far this morning, ANF, DY, GRAB, and KSS all beat on both the earnings and the revenue line.  Meanwhile, BBWI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AAP and PTON both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ADI and FL missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ADI, FL, and PTON all lowered their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the market is tepid at this hour. While the premarket session opened higher, all three major indices are printing black candles in the early session and have fallen back near Tuesday’s closing level. The SPY and QQQ are failing another retest of their T-lines (8ema) on the early move. The short-term trend remains bearish. Also, on top of the normal resistance levels, all three major index ETFs have to climb through their T-lines AND their 50sma (where they are all flirting with a Blue Ice Failure pattern) to make a push. In other words, the Bulls have their work cut out for them at this point. With that said, the SPY and especially the QQQ are trying to reverse to break the downtrend. Of course, the much longer-term trend is still bullish since last year but that has been pushed hard recently by the Bears. As far as extension goes, there is no issue with extension below the T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator remains oversold, although it isn’t pegged to the bottom of its range. So, once again we have room to move in either direction, but the relief pause or bounce may be here. Just remember the market can remain too extended a lot longer than we can remain solvent betting on a reversal that has not happened yet.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday gave us a morning roller-coaster. The SPY gapped 0.24% higher, DIA opened just 0.04% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.40%.  The SPY and QQQ then rallied until 10:10 am.  Meanwhile, DIA only managed to grind sideways until 9:45 am.  Then, all three major index ETFs sold off steadily until 12 pm.  At that point, QQQ was back at the opening level, SPY had crossed back below Friday’s close, and DIA had fallen significantly below Friday’s close.  However, at noon, the Bulls stepped in to drive a strong, steady rally that lasted until a modest pullback in the last 15 minutes.  This action gave us a large, white-bodied candle in the QQQ which barely failed a retest of its T-line on the last-minute profit-taking.  For its part, SPY gave us a white Spinning Top candle.  Finally, the DIA printed a black Spinning Top candle.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Utilities (-0.66%) leading the way lower while Technology (+1.42%) was far out front, holding up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.65%, DIA lost 0.13%, and QQQ gained 1.61%. VXX fell 2.64% to close at 25.03 and T2122 climbed slightly but remains deep into the oversold area at 8.66.  10-year bond yields spiked higher to close at 4.342% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.43% to close at $80.90 per barrel.  This happened in average volume in the QQQ and below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.  So, volatility reigned in the morning, but the Bulls took over for the second half of the day.      

There was no major economic news reported Monday.  However, Reuters did report that a “feud” between centrist and hardline Republicans in the US House has raised the risk of a government shutdown.  The “Freedom Caucus” are pushing for spending $120 billion less than the deal agreed in June between the President and House (taking another bite of the apple).  That group also announced its opposition to any stopgap measures to keep the government open.  Other Republicans are looking for spending on top of the June level for defense, veteran benefits, and border security.  If those two ideas were taken together, it would result in a 25% budget cut in the rest of the budget (including the infrastructure spending the President and Congress have been actively taking credit for recently).  The centrist group (who now call themselves the “Governing Republicans”) say the hardliners ignore the reality that Senate Democrats are not going to go along with their priorities.  As a result of this schism, GS reported Monday they now feel a shutdown is more likely than not.  Current funding ends on September 30 for all 12 appropriations bills and Congress does not return from recess until September 12.  At the same time, the National Federation of Independent Business released the results of its quarterly small business owner survey.  The survey found 52% believe the US is already in recession, which is actually down slightly from 55% in April.  However, 80% said the economy was “okay” or better, and most said their own business financial situation was “strong.”  More than half also said they were less concerned about the health of their own bank, which is a dramatic increase from 31% which had that opinion in April.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, NKLA announced it will be selling $325 million in notes that can be converted into stock. NKLA fell almost 23% on the news. Later, Investing.com reported that GS is looking into selling its investment advisory unit.  GS acquired the unit almost 5 years ago for $750 million. (That unit’s profit fell 60% in Q2, but this was partly driven by write-downs related to GS Consumer businesses.)  At the same time, MU pulled a quasi-extortion move by announcing its previously announced $100 billion (over two decades) investments into memory manufacturing plants in ID and NY won’t be possible without federal funding and tax credits for the two projects.  (MU has asked for billions of dollars in support from the CHIPS Act funds.)  By mid-morning, ESTE announced it has agreed to be acquired by PR for $4.5 billion, which comes to $18.64 per share. ESTE closed Friday at $16.23 and closed Monday at $18.94.  Elsewhere, Reuters has reported that WMT is investigating its supply chain based on credible reports that part of its apparel products are being made by Cambodian prison labor, which is illegal in both countries.  Other retailers, including UA and AHRO (Izod), may be using the same supplier according to the article.  Elsewhere, DD announced it has agreed to sell an 80.1% stake in the chemical giant’s Delrin Resin business for $1.8 billion.  (The buyer is a private company.)  At midday, UNP announced that two rail lines into the Los Angeles region have been closed due to washouts caused by flooding.  At the same time, Reuters reported C is now considering removing an entire level of management when the current leader of its largest division retires next year.  Later, META said it will soon launch a web-based version of its Instagram Threads to better compete against X (Twitter). Meanwhile, negotiations between the UAW and “Big 3” automakers are again getting tense.  The UAW reported Monday that STLA has threatened to move all Ram 1500 pickup production to Mexico unless they get an acceptable offer from the union.  For their part, STLA did not deny the report, instead saying “Product allocation for our U.S. plants will depend on these negotiations as well as a plant’s ability to meet specific performance metrics including improving quality, reducing absenteeism and addressing overall cost.”   After the close, SCHW said it plans to lower its headcount in order to cut costs.  (SCHW did not disclose the number of employees or the exact timing, although it did say it expects to realize a $500 million charge for the move in the second half of 2023.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, the FDA placed clinical trials of GILD blood cancer drug on hold.  (This comes a month after GILD had announced it was scrapping new late-stage trials of the drug on hold itself due to a lack of efficacy in earlier testing.)  GILD had acquired the drug as part of its $4.9 billion buyout of “Forty Seven Inc.” back in 2020.  Later, the NHTSA announced it opened an investigation into F over whether or not the company’s recall of 2022 Mach-E electric vehicles properly dealt with safety issues caused by high voltage contacts (which had been found to cause overheating that could lead to an abrupt loss of power while driving).  The NHTSA has received a dozen reports of the same problem on cars that had already undergone the F recall repair.  At the same time, the EU announced that it will require EU antitrust regulatory approval for the purchase of the German EEX exchange by NDAQ.  (This is notable because the deal falls under the normal threshold for antitrust review.)  In the UK, the British competition regulator finalized its approval of the AVGO $60 billion purchase of VMW.  (It has provisionally approved in July.)  Late in the afternoon, the US State Dept. approved the sale of $12 billion in military hardware to Poland.  BA and LMT will be the primary beneficiaries of the sale of 96 Apache AH-64E helicopters, 1,844 Hellfire missiles, and 508 Stinger missiles.  (No contract has been signed yet.)  Then, near the end of the day, the US 10^th District Court of Appeals upheld the dismissal of a shareholder lawsuit against SPR for misleading investors by withholding information about production cuts related to the two crashes of the BA 737 MAX.  After the close, AAPL won the dismissal of a lawsuit that had claimed the Apple Watch blood oxygen sensor exhibits “racial bias” toward people with darker skin tones.  Finally, also after the close, the US Dept. of Justice announced that TEVA will pay $225 million in fines and also divest a key generic cholesterol drug to settle price-fixing charges from the US Dept. of Justice.

After the close, FN and ZM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, LU and NDSN both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, QFIN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that ZM raised its forward guidance while NDSN lowered guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Thailand (+1.29%), Hong Kong (+0.95%), and Japan (+0.92%) led the region higher with India (0.01%) and Australian (+0.09%) lagging well behind.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape in the bourses at midday.  The CAC (+1.19%) and DAX (+1.06%) are more typical, with the FTSE (+0.68%) lagging in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.19% open, the SPY is implying a +0.39% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.48% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 4.318% and Oil (WTI) is off four-tenths of a percent to $80.40 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to July Existing Home Sales (10 am) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 pm).  We also hear from Fed members (Barkin at 7:30 am, Goolsbee at 2:30 pm, and Bowman at 2:30 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BIDU, BJ, CSIQ, CTRN, COTY, DKS, IQ, LOW, M, MDT, and SCSC.  Then, after the close, LZB, TOL, and URBN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Building Permits, Preliminary August S&P US Mfg. PMI, Preliminary August S&P Global Composite PMI, July New Home Sales, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet, and Bank Reserve Balance with the Fed.  The Central Bankers Jackson Hole Conference also starts.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations are reported.  Fed Chair Powell also speaks at the Jackson Hole Conference which continues until Saturday.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, we hear from ANF, AAP, ADI, BBWI, DY, FL, GRAB, KSS, LANC, PTON, WSM, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVDA, SNOW, and SPLK report.  On Thursday, BURL, DLTR, NTES, WOOF, RY, TD, WB, GPS, INTU, MRVL, JWN, ULTA, and WDAY report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, one of the largest IPOs ever was filed late Monday as Japan’s SFTBY (SoftBank) filed for the long-awaited stock offering of its Arm chip designer unit.  (You may recall Arm as having been a $40 billion acquisition of NVDA before the deal was scuttled on antitrust grounds.  Arm’s chip architecture is the main competitor of the x86 standard from INTC and AMD and is the basis for AAPL’s so-called “self-designed” chip used in Macs as well as by NVDA for its AI market cards.  Elsewhere, in a hopeful possible read-through to China, overnight the CEO of Australian mining giant BHP said in his earnings call that BHP had seen solid growth in demand from some sectors in China.  He mentioned steel demand from housing starts, infrastructure, automotive, and commercial property development as “pretty strong.”  (They still expect China to produce a billion metric tons of steel this year, for the fifth straight year.)  He went on to say, “In the near term, while the outlook for the developed world is uncertain, we expect China and India to remain relative sources of stability for commodity demand.” Finally, S&P followed Moody’s (two weeks ago) in downgrading 10 US Banks, including KEY and CMA.

So far this morning, BIDU, M, MDT, and IQ all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LOW, CSIQ, and BJ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the opposite side, COTY beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, DKS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that DKS, CSIQ, and COTY lowered their forward guidance.  Meanwhile, MDT raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control again so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs show a premarket gap up and then are giving us white-bodied candles in the early session. The SPY and especially QQQ are retesting their T-lines (8ema) from below but the DIA Bulls still have more work to do before reaching that level. The short-term trend remains bearish. However, the QQQ and SPY are trying to break that three-week trend. Of course, the long-term trend is still clinging to a bullish inclination but it has been pushed hard by the Bears over the last three weeks. As far as extension goes, the premarket move gets rid of any concern about overextension below the T-line (8ema). Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator remains quite oversold, but it is not pegged to the bottom of its range. So, again we have room to move either direction, but the overdue pause or bounce may be here. Just remember the market can remain too extended a lot longer than we can remain solvent betting on a reversal that has not happened yet.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down Friday, opening 0.62% lower in the SPY, down 0.60% in the DIA, and down 0.96% in the QQQ.  However, that was the last we saw of the Bears on the day.  The Bulls met the gap down with a slow, steady rally that recrossed the gap and hit the highs of the day at about 3:50 pm.  The last 10 minutes saw modest profit-taking in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with essentially no lower wick and a small upped wick in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  None of the index ETFs came close to challenging their T-line and only the DIA came near its 50sma.  This all happened on above-average volume in the QQQ, and a bit below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.84%) out front leading the way higher while Communications Services (-0.42%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.05%, DIA gained 0.02%, and QQQ lost 0.13%.  VXX fell 2.54% to close at 25.71 and T2122 climbed but remains deep into the oversold area at 8.04.  10-year bond yields recovered during the day but still fell to 4.251% while Oil (WTI) climbed 1.26% to close at $81.40 per barrel.  So, the Bears gapped us down only to be met by all-day buying.  This might have been profit-taking after a strongly bearish week, which saw SPY down 2.05%, DIA down 2.23%, and QQQ down 2.21%.  (The last 10 minutes might also be related to options expiration.)       

There was no major economic news reported Friday.  However, the Fed did publish data indicating that US banks did reduce lending in the week ending August 9.  Overall bank credit fell from $17.25 trillion to $17.23 trillion.  This was the second consecutive weekly drop.  This included a decline in “loans and leases” falling from $12.15 trillion to $12.13 trillion and industrial loans also fell from $2.75 trillion to $2.74 trillion.  At the same time, Reuters released a survey of economists (taken August 14-18) found that a strong majority feel the Fed is done raising rates.  The same poll found a slim majority believing the FOMC will not start cutting rates until at least the end of March.  99 of 110 economists say the Fed will not hike rates in September, which is in line with current Fed Futures that show 89% of traders agree with the economists. 

Related to foreign attempts to unseat the Dollar as the world’s default (and reserve) currency. The BRICS group will hold a meeting in South Africa this week.  Ahead of this, the Fed released research showing that in the 20 years ending in 2019, 95% of all international trade in the Americas region was invoiced in Dollars.  The same goes for 74% of Asian region trade and 79% of trade in the rest of the world (not including the EU, which uses the Euro).  In addition, coming into this week’s BRICS meeting, there’s no obvious competitor to the Dollar yet.  China’s Yuan is not a reliable candidate due to the fact the Chinese will not let their currency freely float with markets.  Other BRICS countries don’t have the economic scale to make their currencies feasible as a Dollar alternative.  In addition, trading US dominance of world markets for the dominance of China or India is something that would take a lot of thinking, convincing, and guts.  The British would love to reclaim global reserve currency status for the pound, but they are too small economically and have massive historical baggage from their colonial past. This leaves the Euro, which is seen as too politically fragmented (especially related to their various economic and fiscal policies) and are unlikely to be supported by China and India.  The last potential substitute is that there has been some talk of a gold-backed digital currency. However, that would take a massive effort and coordination to create a completely new currency, with the problem of managing the various country’s gold reserves (such that participants trust each other) on top of the creation and coordination of an agreed safe cryptocurrency (which many of the BRIC countries have opposed to date). The bottom line is just ahead of the BRICS meeting in Johannesburg, no public progress has been made on others finding a replacement for the US Dollar.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, Reuters reported Friday that some of the world’s largest consumer goods companies are already experimenting with using artificial intelligence to develop marketing and advertising content.  UL, NSRGY (Nestle), and MDLZ were among the examples mentioned and the article also said they would be using data from WMT, AMZN, and KR to train their AI models. On Saturday, TSLA began notifying employees whose personal information had been disclosed in a data breach that happened back in May.  (TSLA is only notifying employees because the AG of ME posted that it found two former TSLA employees had misappropriated that data in lawsuits filed Friday.  The breach affected nearly 76,000 employees’ data.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, during the day Friday, US Senator Vance from OH (headquarters location of CLF which made a bid for X) again publicly urged X not to even entertain offers from foreign buyers.  As you will remember, CLF was the first bidder to buy out X, followed by private company Esmark, and then MT (a Luxembourg-based company).  Vance said he would pursue ways to ensure the company “stayed American.”  Then, after the close Friday, the FDA approved a new dosage of REGN’s Eylea eye disease drug.  On Saturday, GM announced it would cut its Cruise Robotaxi fleet in San Francisco by 50% temporarily.  This comes hours after the CA Dept. of Motor Vehicles announced it has opened an investigation into several Cruise-involved crashes within the last week.  After the investigation, GM will need to address the findings prior to resuming full-scale operations.  (This reduced the number down to 50 Cruise robotaxis operating during the day and 150 in the evenings.)

In China market news, the country’s securities regulators announced a package of measures aimed at propping up their stock markets.  These include cutting trading costs, changing rules to encourage share buybacks, extending trading hours, and increasing financial standards (which would, over time, increase the attractiveness and health of listed companies).  The regulator spokesman answered a question by saying they did not know yet whether a reduction in stamp duties (fees for loans, leases, and securities trades) would take place as had been discussed recently.  Most analysts applauded the moves but said it would not be anywhere near enough to overcome major concerns over the Chinese economy. Then to top this off, Monday the Chinese Central Bank cut its one-year loan rate by less than expected (down 10 basis points instead of the 15 basis-point cut that was expected (down to 3.45%). It also made no changes to the 5-year loan rate and the analyst consensus was that they would reduce that rate by 15 basis points. Most importantly, the PBOC did nothing at all to the long-term mortgage rates (which is what the property sector and public felt needed relief). As a result, the Chinese stock markets were not impressed with these actions and are still hoping for more and bigger government stimulus.

After the close Friday, PANW missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  That beat was a surprise since the market had been very worried since the company said they would announce earnings after the market close on a Friday.  (That was announced August 2 and the stock was down almost 16% since that timing was released.)  PANW was up as much as 10% in after-hours trading following the report.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (-1.82%), Shenzhen (-1.32%), and Shanghai (-1.24%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, Thailand (+0.44%), India (+0.43%), and Japan (+0.37%) paced the gainers.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.18%), DAX (+0.74%), and FTSE (+0.53%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.34% open, the SPY is implying a +0.49% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.63% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking back up to 4.298% and Oil (WTI) is jumping up 1.32% to $82.32 in early trading.

There is no major economics news scheduled for Monday.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell.  However, after the close, FN, LU, NDSN, and ZM report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get July Existing Home Sales and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  We also hear from Fed members (Goolsbee twice and Bowman).  Then Wednesday, Building Permits, Preliminary August S&P US Mfg. PMI, Preliminary August S&P Global Composite PMI, July New Home Sales, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get July Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Balance Sheet, and Bank Reserve Balance with the Fed.  The Central Bankers Jackson Hole Conference also starts.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer Inflation Expectation, and Michigan Consumer 5-year Inflation Expectations.  Fed Chair Powell also speaks and the Jackson Hole Conference continues.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, BIDU, BJ, CSIQ, CTRN, COTY, DKS, IQ, LOW, M MDT, SCSC, LZB, TOL, and URBN report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from ANF, AAP, ADI, BBWI, DY, FL, GRAB, KSS, LANC, PTON, WSM, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVDA, SNOW, and SPLK report.  On Thursday, BURL, DLTR, NTES, WOOF, RY, TD, WB, GPS, INTU, MRVL, JWN, ULTA, and WDAY report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, US Treasury Bond yields were on a massive roller-coaster last week. Not only did the 10-year bond yield close at its highest level since 2007, but they also then crashed by the largest amount in history.  Bloomberg quoted a bond market analyst as saying the reason is pretty simple.  He said, “Given rising real yields and ambitious valuation levels in particular for US stocks, the risk-reward looks better for bonds.”  Elsewhere, the US Dollar booked its fifth straight week of gains (its longest winning streak in 15 months).  Finally, the drought in Panama is causing more supply chain problems.  Previously, the draft depths of ships had been reduced.  Now, the number of ships allowed to transit the Panama Canal has been reduced from 36 to 32 per day.  The wait time, prior to transit, for the largest ships has risen to 17 days as ships stack up (and partially unload to reduce their draft). 

In late-breaking news, Bloomberg released investor survey data (from 602 professional and retail traders they surveyed). The data shows that two-thirds believe it is still unclear that the Fed has done enough to fight inflation. However, more than half also say traditional Fed indicators (like the job market and price index data) will not be the driver when the Fed moves to cut. Instead, they feel the driver will be financial market turmoil that will prompt a Fed rate cut. At the same time, about 80% of respondents say they expect a recession in the EU within the next 12 months. I am not sure how this survey squares with the current Fedwatch Futures data that shows 89% of traders see no rate hike in September and only about a third even expect another hike at all in 2023.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are in control so far in the premarket. All three major index ETFs show a premarket gap up and then are giving us white-bodied candles so far in the early session. However, none of them are close to retesting their T-line (8ema) yet. The short-term trend remains bearish with all three well below their T-line. Of course, the long-term trend is still hanging on to a bullish course but it has been pushed by the Bears over the last three weeks. As far as extension goes, the premarket move gets rid of any concern about overextension below the T-line (8ema). Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator remains quite oversold, but it is not pegged to the bottom of its range. So, we have room to move either direction, but are still due for a pause or bounce soon. Just remember the market can remain too extended a lot longer than we can remain solvent betting on a reversal that has not happened yet.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets started the day a bit higher (gapping up 0.24% on the SPY, up 0.33% in the DIA, and up 0.39% in the QQQ).  However, that was essentially the last we saw of the Bulls for the day.  After that open, the DIA managed to grind sideways in a very tight range until 11 am.  Then it sold off in waves, closing on the lows.  After its gap, the SPY sold off slowly until noon, had a very weak one-hour bounce, and then also sold off all the way into the close.  QQQ immediately sold off harder than the other two major index ETFs for the first hour.  At that point, it modestly bounced until 1 pm before it also sold off hard the rest of the day.  This action gave us large black-bodied candles with tiny wicks in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red again with Consumer Cyclical (-1.40%) once more leading the way lower and Energy (+0.83%) holding up much better than any other sector.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.76%, DIA lost 0.78%, and QQQ lost 1.09%.  VXX gained another 4.81% to close at 26.38 and T2122 dropped even further into the oversold area at 2.86.  10-year bond yields continued to climb to 4.284% while Oil (WTI) climbed to close at $80.39 per barrel. This all took place on slightly less-than-average volume again across all three major index ETFs.  So, the Bulls opened us higher.  However, after that, it was all Bears all the time the rest of the day, even picking up speed in the afternoon.          

The major economic news reported Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims that came in just a bit below expectation at 239k (compared to a forecast of 240k and the prior week’s 250k reading).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was reported dramatically higher than predicted at +12.0 (versus the -10.0 forecast and even further above the July value of -13.5). However, the Philly Fed Employment Index came in well below anticipated at -6.0 (compared to a forecast of -0.7 and even the July reading of -1.0).  Then, after the close, the Fed’s Balance Sheet showed another reduction of $62 billion, down to $8.146 trillion from $8.208 trillion.

The NY Fed released survey results Thursday afternoon.  The survey found that, at least as of just before the late-July Fed meeting, big banks and money managers believed the July rate hike would be the last one for this tightening cycle.  The survey also showed that most “Primary Dealers” believe we will see Fed rate cuts starting in April, while money managers think the cuts will begin in March of 2024.  Furthermore, the big banks expect the Fed to stop reducing its Balance Sheet when it reaches $6.75 trillion (now at $8.146 trillion as reported above and falling at a rate of about $50-$75 billion per week).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, Blue Shield of CA made major waves by announcing it will stop using CVS to manage its pharmacy benefits program and will instead work with AMZN and other firms.  (CVS lost 8.14% on the day on this news.)  Elsewhere, PFE announced that its updated COVID-19 vaccine does show “neutralizing activity” against the Eris subvariant in addition to the (still dominant) Omicron variant.  Not to be outdone, MRNA announced the results of an initial study which showed their updated COVID-19 vaccine is “effective” against Omicron, Eris, and Fornax variants.  In the afternoon, troubled electric carmaker MULN launched a $25 million stock buyback program in an effort to boost the stock price and avoid being delisted.  At the same time, private trucking company Estes Express submitted a $1.3 billion bid to purchase the freight terminals of bankrupt YELL.  Meanwhile, F and its partners (a consortium of South Korean firms) announced they will build a $900 million battery factory in Quebec.  In the late afternoon, Bloomberg reported that GS is on a hiring spree, having hired several hundred new staff to address concerns identified by the Fed.  Twitter (“X”) was in trouble yet again Thursday after ads from ADBE, GILD, and several other brands were run beside “pro-Nazi” content.  ADBE and GILD have suspended advertising on X after the latest in the social media platforms series of blunders.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the union for striking Hollywood Writers sent a letter urging the FTC to investigate DIS, AMZN, and NFLX on antitrust grounds.  The Writers Guild of America told FTC Chair Khan that those three companies have amassed too much power in the streaming media industry and are now effectively an oligopoly.  At the same time, GOOGL’s YouTube unit defeated a racial bias lawsuit that had been filed by black and Hispanic content creators.  A US District Judge in San Francisco threw out the case, saying the claims did not come close to suggesting discrimination.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that US Customs has begun increased inspections of car parts being imported from China in an effort to identify and stop the import of any products produced by supply chains involving forced (Uyghur) labor.  At midday, TSLA notified Core Lithium it will sue the Australian miner in seven days unless the two sides reach a mutual agreement. This comes after the two companies failed to reach an agreement on supply quantities and prices prior to a mutually agreed prior date.  Late in the day, C was subpoenaed by the US House Judiciary Committee (GOP) over alleged data sharing with the FBI without the appropriate legal process prior to that disclosure.  This is part of the effort by the GOP members of the committee to help the January 6 defendants by using subpoena power to provide extra discovery for their defenses. 

After the close, AMAT, GLOB, KEYS, and ROST reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FTCH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMAT and ROST raised forward guidance.  On the other side, KEYS and FTCH lowered their guidance. 

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board with only Australia (+0.03%) barely hanging on to green.  Hong Kong (-2.05%), Shenzhen (-1.75%), and Shanghai (-1.00%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only Russia (+0.64%) appreciably in the green.  Meanwhile, The CAC (-0.81%), DAX (-0.77%), and FTSE (-0.80%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are also pointing to a red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.18% open, the SPY is implying a -0.33% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.61% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down sharply to 4.223% and Oil (WTI) is off a quarter of a percent to $80.19 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economics news scheduled for Friday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include DE, EL, VIPS, XPEV, and PANW.  Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, DE and EL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, VIPS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, XPEV missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that DE raised its forward guidance while EL, VIPS, and XPEV all lowered their guidance.

In miscellaneous news, JPM reported Thursday that hedge funds have slowed down their exit from value and small-cap stocks in the last month.  The study said the flow of funds moving from value to growth stocks in the last month (as “AI fever” hit) has now drawn mostly ended.  This report seems reasonable as the “high growth” QQQ names are down 6.54% since the first of the month.  Elsewhere, China’s largest developer and the world’s most heavily indebted real estate company, China Evergrande, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection in NY on Thursday.  (Chapter 15 is the foreign entity equivalent to Chapter 11.)  Finally, the Texas electric grid operator (ERCOT) issued a voluntary power conservation request for Thursday, saying it expected to hit its tenth record high demand of the summer in the late afternoon and evening.  NRG (which also serves parts of TX) also requested customer electric conservation for the same reason. 

In late-breaking news, Bitcoin plummeted 9% between 5:30 pm and 5:35 pm Thursday night.  The news came a few hours after SpaceX disclosed it had written down its Bitcoin holdings by $373 million.  The main cryptocurrency recovered about half of the losses by 9:30 pm.  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that last night President Biden approved the sending of F-16 fighters from Denmark and the Netherlands to Ukraine.  These planes will eventually be replaced by F-35 jets from LMT.

With that background, it looks like the Bears are still in control so far in premarket. We see black-body candles trading near the lows of the early session in all three major index ETFs at this point. The trend remains bearish with all three below their T-line (8ema). QQQ and DIA are getting close to their next potential support level this morning. However, SPY still has air below it until it reaches potential support. Of course, the long-term trend is still hanging on to a bullish course but it is being pushed hard by the Bears over the last three weeks. As far as extension goes, we are getting extended below the T-line (8ema) in al three with the SPY and QQQ being especially stretched. The T2122 indicator also remains very oversold, but not yet quite pegged to the bottom of its range. So, we are do for a pause or bounce soon. However, remember the market can remain too extended a lot longer than we can remain solvent betting on a reversal that has not happened yet. Also keep in mind that this is Friday, payday. So, take some profits off the table and prepare your account for the weekend news cycle by lightening up, hedging, or buying some insurance for your positions.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day just on the Bearish side of flat (gapping down 0.10% in the SPY, down 0.13% in the DIA, and down 0.13% in the QQQ).  At that point, we saw a modest divergence with DIA rallying sharply for 20 minutes to reach the highs of the day before slowly meandering back down the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, the SPY and QQQ meandered sideways with a very modest Bullish trend until shortly after 11 am.  Then the SPY and QQQ sold off briskly until 1 pm and ground sideways until 3 pm before resuming their move lower.  All three of those major index ETFs went out very near their lows of the day.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with upper wicks in all three. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Consumer Cyclical (-1.25%) leading the way lower and Utilities (+0.26%) being the only sector to hang on to the green territory.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.73%, DIA lost 0.53%, and QQQ lost 1.06%.  VXX gained 1.61% to close at 25.17 and T2122 dropped slightly, further into the oversold area at 5.54.  10-year bond yields continued to climb to 4.27% while Oil (WTI) was down 2.22% to close at $79.19 per barrel. This all took place on less-than-average volume again across all three major index ETFs.  So, the Bears put in some work, following through to the downside after a tepid early attempt to reverse the downtrend by the Bulls.          

The major economic news reported Wednesday included Preliminary July Building Permits, which came in slightly below expectations at 1.442 million (compared to a forecast of 1.463 million and a June reading of 1.441 million).  On a month-on-month basis, this was actually a +0.1% move (versus a forecast of -1.7% and June’s 3.7% fall).  At the same time, July Housing Starts were reported above the predicted amount at 1.452 million (compared to the 1.448 million forecast and the June value of 1.398 million).  On a month-on-month basis, that was a strong +3.9% (versus a forecast of +2.7% and vastly better than June’s -11.7%).  Later, July Industrial Production was a matter of what timeframe you are considering.  On a month-on-month basis, Industrial Production rose more than anticipated at +1.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and June’s 0.80% decline).  However, on a year-on-year basis, July Industrial Production was a bit worse than expected at -0.23% (versus a -0.10% forecast but still significantly better than June’s 0.78% decline).  At midmorning, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory saw a much bigger drawdown than predicted at -5.960 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -2.320 million barrels and far worse than the prior week’s inventory build of 5.851 million barrels).  The EIA also said that US Oil Production reached a new three-year high of 12.7 million barrels per day on average produced last week.

The July Fed Meeting Minutes came out Wednesday.  They showed a divided FOMC, with “some” members citing the risks of pushing rates too far even as “most” members still prioritizing the fight against inflation over the potential for economic harm.  For example, “a couple” participants called for leaving rates unchanged again in July.  Still, the vote was unanimous to raise a quarter point.  Later, the committee discussed risk management steps that might bear on future rate decisions.  In summary, the minutes showed the group was committed to following the course they had been indicating to markets for some time.  However, at least the written verbiage they want to put out will continue to say everything is “data dependent.”  With that said, they may have tipped their hand as to how the group is leaning when it was agreed that future moves will be dictated by the data which will “help clarify the extent to which the disinflation process was continuing.”  In addition, both staff economists and the committee members now seem to see a potential “soft landing” taking shape.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, GM invested $60 million in another battery startup (Mitra Chem), which specialized in using AI to optimize the design and creation of lithium-ion battery parts.   Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported that BAESY is in talks to acquire BALL’s aerospace division for more than $4 billion.  At the same time, MULN announced that it will debut its ultra-high-performance FIVE RS crossover vehicle on August 20.  (The FIVE RS will reportedly do 0-60mph in less than 2 seconds and will have a top speed over 200mph.)  Later, Reuters reported that MT is now considering entering the bidding for X and has brought in investment bankers to help prepare an offer.  After the close, BX (along with a private company and Canada’s second-largest pension fund) struck a deal with BAC. The deal will allow them to buy $1.5 billion worth of solar and wind plants to capitalize on the 2022 Biden green energy funding in the Inflation Reduction Act.  As part of the deal, a private company (Invenergy Renewables) will sell BAC $580 million of tax credits and put the money toward 14 projects being led by AEP.  Overnight, the Wall Street Journal reported that GOOGL’s Health Science unit (Verily) is planning more cost-cutting after losing more money than expected in the last year.  The details are unknown but Verily laid off 200 workers and discontinued some products earlier this year.  At the same time, Reuters reports that TSN is now planning to sell its Chinese poultry business according to three sources.  That unit has $1.1 billion in annual sales revenue.  Also overnight, BAESY did agree to buy BALL’s aerospace unit but for a higher-than-expected $5.55 billion in cash.  Finally, early today Reuters reported that STLA is investing more than $100 million in CA lithium extraction company Controlled Thermal Resources.  (BRKB has struggled to extract lithium in the same area due to large concentrations of silica in the brine from which lithium is extracted.  Controlled Thermal has the technology to remove the silica and other undesirable elements prior to the extraction process.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, Bloomberg reported that V is facing an investigation by the Dept. of Justice over how much it charges merchants for the technology used to safeguard cardholder data.  (That service is called “tokenization” and it replaces the card number used with a computer-generated token.)  The DOJ is investigating the validity of charging merchants more for not using the new tokenization service it offers.  (MA reached a settlement in December with the FTC over the same practice the DOJ investigating V over.)  At the same time, a lawsuit was filed against SBGI, by its bankrupt subsidiary, accusing SBGI of siphoning off $1.5 billion from the bought-out firm, causing the bankruptcy.  Elsewhere, INTC announced it has abandoned the proposed purchase of TSEM after being unsuccessful in getting Chinese authorities to approve the deal.  As a result of killing the deal, INTC owes TSEM $353 million.  At the same time, the NHTSA announced that TM is issuing a recall for 168k 2022-2023 hybrid pickup trucks over a potential fuel leak fire hazard.  In Europe, the Czech government passed a law that will charge multinationals a 15% minimum profit tax for companies with greater than $817.50 million in sales in two of the last four years.  (This is aimed at preventing multinationals from moving profits to a country of the least taxes.)  Back in the US, the state of TX approved the TSLA standard for charging networks in that state to qualify for federal funds.  Meanwhile, officials from seven states wrote to FTC Chair Khan opposing KR’s proposed $24.6 billion acquisition of ACI.  At the same time, Reuters reported that ALL has agreed to pay $90 million to settle a class action suit brought by shareholders who had accused the insurer of lowering underwriting standards (poor risk management) to boost sales growth.  At the close, the FDA announced it has approved a bone disorder treatment from IPSEY.  The drug will have an estimated cost of $400,000 per year and this gives the company a lead over REGN which has a treatment for the same disease still listed as experimental.  After the close, 16 people who witnessed the 2022 Buffalo NY grocery store mass shooting filed suit against three firearms retailers and GOOGL (where the defendant live-streamed the shooting on YouTube).  Also after the close, the FTC approved the EQT acquisition of QMCO for $5.2 billion (announced in September 2022).

After the close, A, HRB, JKHY, NU, and LRN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, SQM missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that A also lowered its forward guidance. So far this morning, JD, TCEHY, and TJX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EAT, PFGC, and TGT missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  It is worth noting that TGT cut its full-year guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Shenzhen (+0.61%), Thailand (+0.61%), and Taiwan (+0.42%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Malaysia (-1.06%), New Zealand (-0.95%), and Australia (-0.68%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, the bourses are leaning strongly to the downside at midday.  The breadth of losses is wide with Finland (+0.31%) being the only appreciable green while the CAC (-0.05%), DAX (-0.07%), and FTSE (-0.13%) are typical of modest losses and lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.27% open, the SPY is implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.18% open at this point.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are climbing again at 4.302% and Oil (WTI) is 1.12% to $80.25 per barrel in early trading.

The major economics news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 am), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ARCO, BILI, DOLE, NICE, TPR, and WMT.  Then, after the close, AMAT, FTCH, GLOB, KEYS, and ROST report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, there is no significant economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, DE, EL, VIPS, XPEV, and PANW report.

In miscellaneous news, the National Futures Assn. approved COIN to sell crypto futures to us investors on Wednesday.  (75% of all global cryptocurrency transactions are done using futures.  However, US investors have not been able to participate in that market until this approval.)  Meanwhile in Washington, as Congress headed home for summer recess there was no movement on the Appropriations bills, which could lead to a government shutdown.  However, an interesting development was hinted at.  House Speaker McCarthy floated the idea of a continuing resolution, kicking the can down the road until December or January.  Democrats, especially in the Senate, were very supportive of the idea.  The “why?” is the interesting part.  Speculation is that some people believe pushing off the decisions until later may see legal developments having weakened one faction’s support from the base and made them more amenable to compromises.  It’s pure speculation, but it might make sense since nothing else is likely to change between the two sides whether the deadline is in 30 days or five months. 

So far this morning, BILI, NICE, and WMT all reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, DOLE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, TPR and ARCO missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting, the BILI and TPR have lowered their forward guidance.  At the same time, WMT raised its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like markets are looking to give us a modest gap-up, but indecisive start to the morning. The SPY and QQQ are giving us the strongest (white-bodied) premarket candles but that is not saying much. The trend remains bearish with all three major index ETFs below their T-line (8ema). None of the three major index ETFs have a potential support level immediately below at this moment. Of course, the long-term trend is still hanging on to a bullish course but it is being pushed by the Bears over the last three weeks. As far as extension goes, we are starting to get a little bit extended below their T-line (8ema) and the T2122 indicator remains very oversold, but not yet quite pegged to the bottom of its range. So, both sides have some slack to work with. However, the Bulls have much more room to run and we may be in need of a pause or pullup.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service