Stocks gapped higher Wednesday between 0.2% (DIA) and 0.95% (QQQ).  However, once again this was a bull trap.  After about 25 minutes of meandering higher from the open, the bears stepped in and took all 3 major indices on a slow, protracted selloff that lasted the rest of the day and closed on the lows.  This action gave us black-bodied candles with small upper wicks and no lower wick across all those indices.  It could be seen as the completion of the second half of the Bearish Doji Continuation which was started last Friday.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Basic Materials and Communications Services leading the way lower.  The SPY lost 0.79%, the DIA lost 0.75%, and QQQ lost 0.58% during the session.  The VXX fell another 1.23% to 19.24 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) remains deeply oversold at 3.00.  10-year bond yields surged higher to 3.178% and Oil (WTI) fell more than 3% to $88.86/barrel.  All-in-all, it was a slow, methodical, bear day in the market.

In economic news, the Aug. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls added far fewer jobs than was expected or was added in July (+132k vs. +300k forecast and +268k in July).  This indicates a slowing economy.  However, the Aug. Chicago PMI came in slightly better than expected at 52.2 (versus 52.0 forecast and July’s 52.1 number).  Elsewhere, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories diverged from Tuesday night’s API number.  EIA showed a drawdown of 3.326 million barrels for the week, which was more than twice the expected drawdown (1.483 million barrels) and slightly worse than the prior week’s drawdown of 3.282 million barrels.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, after the close, BBBY confirmed what it had leaked.  The retail chain will close 150 stores, cut about 20% of its jobs (roughly 6,400), and change its merchandising strategy by cutting private label lines in favor of national third-party brands.  BBBY also confirmed that it has secured a $500 million loan (to get it through the holiday season) and it now forecasts a 26% drop in sales for Q2.  BBBY stock was down 21% on Wednesday.  Also, after the close, COST reported that its “Same Store Sales” grew 10.1% in July and 15.3% over the same period last year.  Elsewhere, Arm (owned by SFTBY) filed a lawsuit against QCOM.  At issue was that QCOM acquired Nuvia (a chip design firm) last year and neither company informed or gained consent from Arm as required by Arm’s license agreement. Finally, late last night, NVDA reported that the US government has ordered them to stop selling chips to Russia and China. The company had previously gotten export exemptions to continue selling to China, but now doubts that exemption will be extended again. NVDA said it expects to lose $400 million in sales this quarter due to the restriction.

In energy news, on Wednesday, US Gasoline futures fell back below the price they were at when Russia invaded Ukraine in February ($2.59/gallon).  Elsewhere, OPEC+ put out a statement Wednesday that failed to mention production cuts (as had been threatened by Saudi Arabia last week).  Instead, the release hyped up global demand for oil, which analysts read as meaning cuts were the last thing on the minds of OPEC+ members.  In related news, the White House said President Biden has informed Israel about the revival of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran.  (This deal reportedly will allow Iran to ship oil, significantly increasing global supplies.)  In addition, after the close, the White House announced the G7 will be discussing the Biden Administration’s proposal to put a price cap on Russian oil when the group meets Friday.

After the close GEF, PSTG, and VEEV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, COO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  FIVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.  GEF and PSTG raised their guidance while COO and FIVE lowered forward guidance.

So far this morning, CPB, SAIC, SIG, GMS, and WB have all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, HRL beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  HRL also lowered its forward guidance.  On the other side, GCO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, PDCO, CIEN, FLWS, and OLLI all reported misses on both lines.  FLWS and GCO also both lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside.  South Korea (-2.28%), Australia (-2.02%), and Taiwan (-1.94%) led the region lower with only two smaller exchanges managing to stay on the green side of flat.  In Europe, stocks are red across the board at mid-day.  The FTSE (-1.38%), DAX (-1.40%), and CAC (-1.25%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.48% open, the SPY is implying a -0.50% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.68% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are surging again, now at 3.20%, and Oil (WTI) is down another 2% to $87.81/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), PMI Mfg. (9:45 am), and ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am).  There is also another Fed Speaker (Bostic at 3:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FLWS, CPB, CIEN, GCO, GMS, MOMO, HRL, HOV, OLLI, PDCO, SAIC, SIG, TTC, and WB before the open.  Then after the close, AVGO, JOAN, and LULU report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get Aug Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Participation Rate, Aug. Unemployment Rate, July Factory Orders. In terms of earnings, there are no major reports scheduled for Friday.

September looks to be coming in like a bear as the bulls just have not been able to find their footing this week. We remain very extended to the downside at this point (both in terms of the T-line and T2122). However, the futures are not giving the bulls much hope, except that prices have recovered from the overnight lows. Be very careful of chasing any gaps or early moves. Remember that the last two days started with “gap traps” and we want to learn from those examples. The short-term trend remains strongly bearish, the mid-term bullish trend has been broken, and the long-term bearish trend is also broken. Volatility is a high probability and if nothing else we still need a pause to ease overextension. The bottom line is that we are in a downtrend, but the bears may have gotten ahead of themselves with support not far below.

Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today, Rick is on vacation visiting a gandbaby. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped higher between a third and a half of a percent on Tuesday.  However, this was a bull trap as all 3 major indices sold off hard the first 90 minutes of the day. From that point, we saw a sideways grind in a small range (relatively speaking) for the rest of the day.  This action is giving us a Bearish Engulfing candle of a Doji / Spinning Top (or if you prefer the start of the completion of a Bearish Doji Continuation or Doji Sandwich signal).  This made for the third straight down day for all 3 major indices and all this happened on average volume.

On the day, all 10 sectors are down sharply, with the Energy Sector (down 4%) leading the way lower.  The SPY lost 1.05%, DIA lost 0.95%, and QQQ lost 1.11%.  The VXX was also down a percent to 19.48 and T2122 is extremely oversold to 3.35.  10-year bond yields have rebounded from early lows and are back up to 3.112% while Oil (WTI) is down 5% to $92.16/barrel on news out of a Pro-Iran UK television station saying Iran has agreed to a deal with the United States to revive the Trump-killed JCPOA nuclear deal and allow Iran to sell oil.  All-in-all, it’s looking like it will end up a blah, bull trap, one plus percent down day.

In economic news, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence came in a 103.2, well above the consensus forecast (97.9) s well as July’s reading (95.3).  At the same time, July JOLTS (Job Openings) came in higher than expected at 11.293 million (versus a consensus forecast of 10.475 million and a June reading of 11.04 million).   Then, after the close, API reported Weekly Oil Stocks surprised with a modest build (0.593 million barrels) while a modest drawdown (-0.633 million barrels) was expected.  However, this was still much better than the prior week’s 5.632-million-barrel drawdown.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In Forex / Fed news, the Dollar hit a 20-year high for the second day in a row Tuesday.  This came after the JOLTs report suggested a stronger than expected economy.  In addition to the forex impacts, traders have upped their bets for a 75-basis-point hike in September.  US Futures now have now priced in a 74.5% probability of that 0.75% hike.  After the close, NY Fed President Williams told the Wall Street Journal that he expects rate hikes and balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) to continue into 2023.  Specifically, he pushed back against the idea of a rate cut in 2023 (while the futures market still expects a cut in the fall of 2023).  This all just focuses eyes on the August Payrolls report Friday.

In stock news, it was reported Tuesday that SNAP is planning to reduce staffing by 20%.  Elsewhere, after its earnings report, BBY told the earnings call that they are now forecasting that consumers will resume the old pattern by doing most of their holiday shopping late.  (In 2021, consumers did the majority of their holiday shopping early.)  In TWTR news, Elon Musk has asked the judge to postpone the trial over his purchase of TWTR until November (from October 17).  In the filing, Musk cited his subpoena of the newly announced TWTR whistleblower as the reason.

After the close CRWD reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  The company also raised guidance.  Meanwhile, HPE, HPQ, AMRK, CHWY, and PVH all reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  In addition, HPQ, PVH, and CHWY all lowered their forward guidance.  So far this morning, DBI, DCI, and CHS have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EXPR missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Shenzhen (-1.29%), Shanghai (-0.78%), and Singapore (-0.55%) led the way lower on weak PMI data out of China (which actually slightly beat expectations but still came in at only 49.4 for Mfg. while Services PMI was at 52.6).  Meanwhile, India (+2.58%) Taiwan (+0.95%), and South Korea (+0.86%) paced the gainers.  In Europe, markets are mostly in the red at midday with the notable exception of Russia (+3.63%).  The FTSE (-1.08%), DAX (-0.36%), and CAC (-0.48%) are typical for most of the continent with a few smaller exchanges just holding on to the green side of flat in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat to modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.58% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are higher to 3.142% and Oil (WTI) is off 2.68% to $89.17/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a couple of more Fed speakers (Mester at 8 am and Bostic at 6:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BF.A/B, CHS, DBI, DCI, and EXPR before the open.  Then after the close, FIVE, PSTG, and VEEV report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, PMI Mfg., and ISM Mfg. PMI are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Aug Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Participation Rate, Aug. Unemployment Rate, July Factory Orders.

In earnings later this week, on Thursday, FLWS, CPB, CIEN, GCO, GMS, MOMO, HRL, OLLI, PDCO, SAIC, SIG, TTC, WB, AVGO, JOAN, and LULU report.  Finally, Friday there are no major reports.

Markets are limping into the last day of August, coming off 3 straight down days. We remain very extended to the downside at this point and futures are giving us a very modest and indecisively bullish indication. Be very careful of chasing any gaps or early moves (especially to the downside). While the short-term trend is bearish, the mid-term bullish trend is broken, and the long-term bearish trend is also broken, volatility and if nothing else a pause to ease extension is a high probability. The bottom line is that we are in a volatile downtrend, but the bears may have gotten ahead of themselves with support not far below.

Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BABA, Z, SNOW, CAH, UUP, BIG, WEAT, UEC, SQQQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped down between three-quarters and a full percent on Monday in what the bears hoped was the start of follow-through on Friday’s big move down. However, after some early volatility, the bulls stepped in to fill the gap in a protracted rally from 11 am to 2 pm.  Then prices remained near those highs for the next 1.5 hours.  However, late in the day, the bulls took their profits, and all 3 major indices sold off hard in the last 15 minutes. This action is giving us indecisive, Spinning Top type candles (long wicks on both ends of the candle) that are resulting in modest bearish moves overall.  This sets up either a Bearish Doji Continuation (Sandwich) or a Bullish Morning Star Signal in all 3 indices.

Seven of the 10 sectors were red, with Energy being far-and-away the biggest gainer and Technology being far-and-away the biggest losing sector.  On the day, SPY lost 0.67%, DIA lost 0.57%, and QQQ lost 0.99%.  The VXX fell more than 2% to 19.71 and T2122 remains deep in the oversold territory at 10.25.  10-year bond yields are up significantly to 3.11% and Oil (WTI) has surged more than 4% to $96.96/barrel. 

There was no major economic news on Monday.  However, there was a LendingClub survey reported by CNBC that claimed there was a slight decline in the percentage of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck.  The study found that 59% of Americans fall into that category, down from 61% in June, but also above the 54% number from June.  In somewhat related news, in the face of nine weeks of declining gasoline prices, US oil refiners have recently been really pushing exports of refined products in order to limit domestic supply and increase their recently-record profits.  It has gotten to the point where on Monday Energy Sec. Granholm was basically begging oil refiners to stop increasing those recent record-level distillate and fuel exports.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock and miscellaneous news, MSFT announced it will amend cloud licensing deals as of Oct. 1 in order to stave off round another EU antitrust penalties. The changes will make it easier for rivals (GOOGL, AMZN, and BABA) to compete with MSFT in Europe.  Elsewhere, TSLA was hit with a class action lawsuit over sudden “phantom braking” by the company’s Model 3 when using the “Driver Assist” (Autopilot) mode.  Related to inflation, we’ve received some news lately tending to indicate that inflation has already peaked (especially gas prices). However, the Zumper National Rent Index came out yesterday afternoon and shows that landlords don’t buy that story. The national average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment rose to a record $1,500 in July, up 2% from June and more than 12% from one year ago.

In Russian invasion news, on the ground, Ukraine launched its long-awaited counter-offensive in the Southern Kherson region.  More than six months into the war, Monday, Ukraine recaptured 4 villages in that region and breached the first of 3 Russian defense lines.  Ukraine also initiated a much smaller offensive in the Eastern Izium region.  Elsewhere, Monday evening, EU Commissioner von Der Leyen announced that the EU is planning an “emergency intervention” in the region’s power market.  This plan clearly breaks with the EU’s prior “let the market handle the situation” stance.  Details are lacking, but EU countries have already been granted permission to cap natural gas prices and many are now calling for the same power on electricity prices.  (EU wholesale electricity prices are more than 800% higher than one year ago.)  Finally, a team of UN inspectors has left to visit the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe) amidst fear over Russian shelling near the plant and Russia’s cutting the plant off from the electric grid.  (The plant produces more than 20% of all electricity generated in Ukraine.)

After the close HEI reported a beat on revenue, but missed on earnings.  So far this morning, AMWD, BMO, and BBY all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, BIDU, BIG, and FUTU missed on revenue while also beating on earnings.  However, IQ beat on revenue and came in in line with earnings (a loss of $0.04/share).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  India (+2.58%), New Zealand (+1.23%), and Japan (+1.14%) led the gains while mainland China showed the only red in the region.  In Europe, we see mostly green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.12%), DAX (+1.84%), and CAC (+1.11%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  However, Norway (-1.03%) is showing the only appreciable red in the region.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.69% open, the SPY is implying a +0.83% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.12% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back down to 3.058% and Oil (WTI) is starting the day down more than 2.77% to $94.32/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and July JOLTs (both at 10 am), API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 pm), and a Fed speaker (Williams at 11 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AMWD, BIDU, BMO, BBY, BIG, FUTU, and IQ before the open.  Then after the close, AMRK, CHWY, CRWD, HPE, HPQ, and PVH report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday we see ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, Chicago PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and another Fed speaker (Mester).  On Thursday Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, PMI Mfg., and ISM Mfg. PMI are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Aug Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Participation Rate, Aug. Unemployment Rate, July Factory Orders.

In earnings later this week, Wednesday we get reports from BF.A/B, CHS, DBI, DCI, and EXPR.  On Thursday, FLWS, CPB, CIEN, GCO, GMS, MOMO, HRL, OLLI, PDCO, SAIC, SIG, TTC, WB, AVGO, JOAN, and LULU report. Finally, Friday there are no major reports.

Coming off a second straight day of losses, futures seem to indicate the bulls are ready to make a stand. The question is whether this is a true reversal, just an over-extension bounce, or even a bull trap. BAC warned this morning that the flow of funds from its account holders has gotten decidedly defensive since Friday. So, given the strength of the selloff the last 15 minutes Monday, we should be very cautious about chasing any gaps or rallies. We were very extended and at this point, the futures move does not look like a major reversal of market sentiment to me. The short-term trend is bearish, the mid-term bullish trend is broken, and the long-term bearish trend is also broken. The bottom line is that we are in a volatile, undecided market.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CGC, MCK, META, UEC, KSS, ADM, CAH, X, DBC, WEAT, Z, SPXU, QID, UVXY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday was a day of reckoning for markets are all 3 major indices opened flat and traded that way until Fed Chair Powell began to speak.  However, when he did begin to speak, it was immediately apparent that Powell was not going to tell the Bulls what they had hoped to hear (that inflation was coming down and the Fed could ease up on the tightening).  So, we saw massive volatility in the 10 minutes after Powell started speaking and then a brutal selloff the rest of the day (especially from 10am -11am) from that point.  This gave us a huge Bearish Engulfing signal in the DIA and just big, ugly black candles in the SPY and QQQ.  Obviously, all 3 major indices failed their T-lines (8ema) during the day, but all 3 are also now extended well below those 8ema levels.

All 10 sectors are well into the red with Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials leading the way lower on a risk-off day.  On the day, SPY lost 3.38%, DIA lost 3.07%, and QQQ lost 4.10%.  The VXX has gained over 2.25% to pop back up to 20.15 and T2122 has fallen all the way from overbought to well oversold at 7.87.  10-year bond yields pulled back to be slightly down (after rising overnight) at 3.028% and Oil (WTI) was down 0.5% to $92.99/ barrel.  Basically, the Bulls wanted Powell to tell them that the Fed can take its foot off the gas on tightening, but instead he was adamant that the rate increases will continue, and higher rates will persist “for some time.”  In fact, he told us to expect some pain ahead with higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor markets all required to bring down inflation.  Basically, that was a gut punch for the traders who have been chasing growth.

In China stock news, Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal that will allow SEC officials to review the audit documentation of 163 businesses that the SEC identified at high risk of US trading prohibition.  This is a good first step in avoiding the delisting of those companies from the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges.  Some of those major tickers potentially saved include BABA, JD, BIDU, PDD, NIO, YUMC, PTR, EDU, etc.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In food/agriculture/consumer news, a new forecast revision released Friday shows that drought and heatwaves have slashed US corn yield expectations for the fall.  The revisions are now expecting more than a 4% yield reduction versus last year, taking the crop total down to 2019 levels.  This does not sound like a huge issue, but add to that some very similar climate change problems in Europe and China, as well as the Russian invasion taking 20% of Ukrainian cropland out of production.  The end result will be shortages and higher food prices expected toward year-end.  Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat are the primarily-impacted grains with Beef, Hog, and Chicken meats impacted in turn (all are heavily grain fed).  This will have a big impact on consumer defensive input prices and consumer inflation this year.  However, the problem may well be made worse in 2023 because the Russian aggression has also cut natural gas supplies, lowering global fertilizer production (as much as 50% for Nitrogen-based fertilizer).  This is expected to lower next year’s crop yields globally an unspecified, but very significant amount as well.  (Global crop yields have dramatically increased ever since the early 1970s. This has kept food expenses a low percentage of the consumer’s budget, and freed up money for all sorts of previously unfeasible consumer spending (especially in North America and Europe). This all happened on the back of very cheap and widely-available nitrogen-based fertilizers. If that paradigm changes, you can bet consumer spending habits will also need to change…therefore reshaping stock market leadership. (All grain using tickers and as a result, the consumer spending on non-essentials will be hit significantly.)

In legal news, on Friday, a judge rules that MMM cannot use bankruptcy to avoid liability over selling defective earplugs to the US military.  MMM was down 12% on the news. On Saturday, META agreed in principle to an undisclosed settlement of a lawsuit in US Federal Court seeking damages for allowing third parties (such as the infamous Cambridge Analytica) to access uses private data.  Finally, also on Saturday, the USDOT temporarily waived truck driver hours of service restrictions.  This came after a fire took an Indiana BP refinery offline Wednesday causing the need for much more fuel trucking in the Midwest.

In market trends, Bloomberg reports that “meme stocks” are here to stay. In a weekend survey of 522 investors, two-thirds expect the speculative meme stock phenomenon to be here to stay (based on easy/rapid internet communications).  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that funds are heeding Powell’s Friday message and sticking to the old “Don’t fight the Fed” mantra.  At this point, traders have amassed the largest short position on 3-month Fed Rate Futures, having doubled in the last month and gained 100,000 contracts Friday.  (Traders are betting short-term bonds will fall in value as yields and interest rates rise.)  In short, markets believed Chair Powell and expect more bear market pain.

So far this morning, PDD reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, CTLT missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  CTLT also lowered its forward guidance when it reported.

Overnight, Asian markets were deeply in the red.  Japan (-2.66%), Taiwan (-2.31%), and South Korea (-2.18%) led the region lower as Asia played catch-up to the North American route from Friday.  In Europe, we see the same story (with the lone exception of a green Russia +0.67%) at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.70%), DAX (-1.24%), and CAC (-1.90%) are leading the wave of red across that region in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower to start the week.  The DIA implies a -0.87% open, the SPY is implying a -0.94% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.13% open at this hour.  In addition, 10-year bond yields are up sharply to 3.11% and Oil (WTI) is up a half of a percent in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CTLT, HTHT, and PDD before the open.  Then, after the close, HRI and YY report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, July JOLTs, and a Fed speaker (Williams).  Then Wednesday we see ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, Chicago PMI, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and another Fed speaker (Mester).  On Thursday Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, Q2 Unit Labor Costs, PMI Mfg., and ISM Mfg. PMI are reported.  Finally, on Friday we get Aug Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Participation Rate, Aug. Unemployment Rate, July Factory Orders.

In earnings later this week, Tuesday we hear from BIDU, BMO, BBY, BIG, FUTU, IQ, AMRK, CHWY, CRWD, HPE, HPQ, and PVH.  Then Wednesday we get reports from BF.A/B, CHS, DBI, DCI, and EXPR.  On Thursday, FLWS, CPB, CIEN, GCO, GMS, MOMO, HRL, OLLI, PDCO, SAIC, SIG, TTC, WB, AVGO, JOAN, and LULU report. Finally, Friday there are no major reports.

Friday is a prime example of what happens when the market really wants to hear something. Mr. Market can really throw a tantrum when he doesn’t get what he wants/expects. However, we need to remember that the base case of markets is that they overreact, overreact to the overreaction, and then react again. That is what causes the unmistakable stairstep, zig-zag, or wave movements of price. So, at this point, we are back in a bear market…but we are over-extended to the downside in the short term. That doesn’t mean we have to rest or relief rally today…but it raises the probabilities. Just be wary of chasing gaps and run-away to the downside. Volatility is still high and traders have had a weekend to gather their wits and nerve since the unexpected bad news.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UXVY, SQQQ, SPXU, QID, PSQ, SNAP, MRVL, SNOW. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, the SPY and QQQ gapped higher while the DIA opened flat. From there, all 3 major indices made a morning rally to the highs of the day at about 11 am. However, once again the whipsaw kicked in and a selloff took all 3 indices back down to the open value or below in just 30 minutes before grinding sideways for a couple of hours.  At that point, the bulls rallied us back up to within shouting distance of the highs (or to new Highs in the DIA) again by 2:30 pm.  Finally, a very strong rally in the last 45 minutes tool all 3 major indices out on their highs.  This action is giving us white-bodied candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  The QQQ and SPY both crossed back above their T-line (8ema) and the DIA is right at that level at the close.

All 10 sectors are green with Basic Materials, Technology, and Consumer Cyclical leading the way higher.  On the day, SPY gained 1.41%, DIA gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 1.77%.  The VXX is down 0.51% to 19.70 and T2122 crossed back up into the overbought territory at 83.95.  10-year bond yields fell back to 3.03% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.09% to $92.91/barrel.  Once again, this all took place on below-average volume.

In economic news, Q2 GDP came in a -0.6% which was better than the -0.8% forecast as well as Q1’s -0.9% print.  Weekly Initial Jobless Claims also came in better than was expected at 243k (versus 253k consensus forecast) as well as slightly better than last week’s 245k number.  In the afternoon, Fed Hawk Bullard told CNBC that he expects high inflation to persist and that interest rates are not yet high enough to begin curbing price increases.  He went on to say he favors front-loading rate hikes and hopes to convince peers to vote for a benchmark rate of between 3.75% to 4.00% by year-end.  Other Fed voters at Jackson Hole said that whether there will be a 0.75% or 0.50% hike in September is not decided yet and will depend on the 2 additional inflation and multiple jobs reports before the meeting. However, rates still need to rise to fight inflation.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On Thursday, AMZN announced they had struck a deal with hydrogen fuel cell maker PLUG to supply power to forklifts, long-haul trucks, and building operations starting in 2025.  Part of the deal included PLUG giving AMZN a warrant to buy up to 16 million shares of PLUG with an exercise price of $22.98.  (PLUG closed the day at $30.00.)  AMZN also agreed to spend at least $2.1 billion on PLUG products over the 7-year contract.  Later in the day, the California Air Resources Board voted to require all new cars sold in the state to be electric or electric hybrid by 2035.  However, these regulations must still be approved by the US EPA.

In energy news, Reuters reported Thursday evening that ERCOT (the Texas Power Grid operator) has spent an additional $1 billion to avoid blackouts this summer.  This comes in the form of rewards for industrial customers to cut usage, paying power generators a premium to maintain higher reserves (production capacity).  The state set 11 demand records so far this summer.  Elsewhere, OPEC+ is seeing more support for Saudi Arabia’s stated plan to curb oil supplies to “stabilize world oil markets.”  Iraq, Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Venezuela, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Azerbaijan, and Libya all endorsed the plan to cut OPEC+ production.  (Clarity on the move should be seen on this plan on September 5 when the group meets again.)  Overnight, the UK Energy Regulator announced that they expect Britons to pay as much as three times last year’s price to heat their homes this coming winter (including an 80% hike in October). Meanwhile, Germany is looking at restricting companies able to benefit from higher natural gas prices amidst public outcry over record energy company profits and soaring consumer costs.

In miscellaneous market news, Texas accused BLK, CS, UBS and other European-listed financial companies of boycotting the state’s huge fossil fuel industry.  (This is part of the state’s anti-ESG investing campaign.)  The state claims it may divest billions of dollars in state pension funds from those companies and their funds.  This may have big market price impacts on those stocks.  For example, the Texas School Teach Retirement fund currently owns large positions in BLK. In unrelated news, after the close Thursday, the CBOE announced that it is in talks with IBKR, HOOD, VIRT and others about taking equity stakes in the recently purchased ErisX crypto exchange (to be renamed CBOE Digital). In telecom news, late last night, Elon Musk (SpaceX) and TMUS announced a joint venture aimed at eliminating cellular dead zones. This backup network will only be available to TMUS customers and initially will only cover SMS messages. However, the (at least initially) no-cost backup service will later be upgraded to cover voice calls and video streaming.

After the close Thursday, GPS, VMW, ULTA, and FTCH all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, DELL and MRVL both missed on revenue while also beating on earnings.  On the other side, WDAY beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside on mostly modest moves.  Shenzhen (-0.37%), Shanghai (-0.31%), and New Zealand (-0.16%) were the losing exchanges.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+1.01%), Australia (+0.79%), and Japan (+0.57%) paced the remaining, gaining exchanges in the region.  In Europe, stocks are mixed, but leaning red at mid-day, but again on mostly modest moves.  Denmark (-1.30%) is an outlier.  However, the FTSE (+0.04%), DAX (-0.41%), and CAC (-0.33%) are leading the region in a modest move lower in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.29% open, the SPY is implying a -0.42% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.57% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 3.071% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.3% to $93.74 in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, and July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am), and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking (at 10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to JKS before the open.  There are no reports after the close.

Markets will have their eyes focused on Fed Chair Powell’s speech this morning. While he is very unlikely to tell the bulls what they want to hear, the bears are also not going to get everything they want. Expect him to say some version of “it will depend on coming data” when he addresses September Fed actions. Premarket action is looking like a battle around the T-line in all 3 major indices as traders wake up to a modestly down “wait and see” market. The pullback was broken (at least temporarily) on Thursday. However, the new short-term bullish trend is not running rampant yet. So, caution is in order, volatility is expected, and even if we get a good clue from Powell…it is Friday with a long weekend news cycle ahead.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Wednesday before making a morning run up to the highs at noon.  Then the whipsaw kicked in and all 3 major averages sold off back down near the open shortly after 1:30 pm.  From there we saw an oscillating sideways grind in a tight range.  However, Mr. Market gave us one last rally and then selloff starting at 3 pm which left us mid-way between the open and highs as of the close.  This action gave us a white-bodied, Spinning Top type of candle in all the major indices.  The QQQ and DIA both held their 34ema as support on the day. 

All 10 sectors were in the green, with the Energy, Healthcare, and Consumer Cyclical sectors leading the way higher.  On the day, SPY gained 0.31%, DIA gained 0.24%, and QQQ gained 0.29%.  The VXX fell 1.69% to 19.80 and T2122 is back in the mid-range at 51.77.  10-year bond yields climbed to 3.111% and Oil (WTI) is up another 1.71% to $95.34/barrel.  All-in-all, this was another indecisive, low-volume day where markets have held support but haven’t really started back up yet.

In economic news, July Durable Goods Orders came in below consensus forecasts at dead flat.  This was below the +0.6% forecast and well below June’s +2.0% number.  July Pending Home Sales were also down.  However, the -1.0% was well above the -4.0% forecast and much better than June’s -8.9% number.   EIA Crude Oil Inventories came in down 3.282 million barrels (on increased exports, hitting a new all-time high) and this was a far bigger drawdown than the -0.933 million barrels forecast, but still much better than the previous week’s 7.056-million-barrel drawdown.  Also, during the day, President Biden announced the administration will forgive $20,000 in student loan debt for Pell Grant recipients and $10,000 in federal loan debt for others with income of less than $125,000.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In another blow to the stock, the TWTR whistleblower mentioned in yesterday’s blog is now scheduled to speak before the US Senate on September 13.  This can’t help but lead to attacks from Senators eager to reign in big tech (as well as those just wanting to make headlines less than 2 months prior to the mid-term election). In other big tech news, AAPL invited the press to a “big announcement” on September 7. It has been y rumored the company will announce its new iPhone 14 line on that day.  Elsewhere, GOOGL is launching an ad campaign to fight disinformation in parts of Europe.  The pilot program spots (which will run on GOOGL search, TWTR, META, and TikTok) aim to help people identify emotional manipulation, scapegoating, and fake information in posts and media reports.  Initially, the campaigns will run in Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

In energy and consumer news, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that 20 million US homes (1 in 6 homes) are behind in payments of their energy bills.  This has been caused by surging electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil prices.  This is expected to get worst as we head into colder months.  Specifically, California’s PCG has seen a 40% rise in residential delinquencies and New Jersey’s PEG reports a 30% rise in customers who are more than 90-days late…just since March.  Meanwhile, as mentioned above, US exports of Oil and distillates hit an all-time high of more than 11 million barrels per day last week.  This is especially interesting since a fire at the main US LNG export terminal will keep that facility (and thus US exports of LNG) offline until November.

After the close Wednesday, CRM, WSM, NTAP, ADSK, and SPLK all reported beating on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, VSCO missed on revenue while beating on the bottom line.  On the other side, GES and SNOW both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, NVDA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is also worth noting that SPLK raised forward guidance while CRM and NVDA both lowered their forecasts.

So far this morning, TD, DG, CM, COTY, and TITN all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, BURL missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, PTON and HAIN missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BURL and PTON also lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Hong Kong (+3.63%) was an outlier, up hard after being halted in the morning for a typhoon warning and later resuming trade in the afternoon.  However, Malaysia (+1.92%), South Korea (+1.22%), and Shanghai (+0.97%) led the region higher.  In Europe, stocks are nearly green across the board at mid-day.  Only Switzerland (-0.01%) shows any red at all.  Meanwhile, the FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.28%), and CAC (+0.06%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.28% open, the SPY is implying a +0.53% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.71% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down slightly to 3.098% and Oil (WTI) is flat in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include Q2 GDP Revision and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins (at 9 am).  However, Fed Chair Powell does not speak until Friday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, and TD before the open.  Then, after the close, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking. On the earnings front, JKS reports before the open Friday.

As markets grind toward getting their clue from Fed Chair Powell, the Jackson Hole Conference starts today with other Central Bankers speaking. New Chinese stimulus, in the form of government spending (which will amount to almost 1% of Chinese GDP), has given bulls an overnight shot in the arm. However, as stated before, don’t be surprised with a “wait and see” attitude in the market until Powell speaks on Friday. Premarket prices look like we will be gapping higher and may retest the T-line in the major indices. However, those prices have also fallen back from earlier highs as traders remembered they were waiting on Powell. There is no denying that it looks like the pullback has paused and just maybe started to reverse. There is potential support levels below, the broken mid-term trend was bullish, and the broken longer-term trend was bearish. So, caution is in order, and volatility is to be expected. However, China is giving us a little lift early today.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ACAD, DM, CGC, AA, ALB, MRO, OKE, X, SNOW. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Tuesday, stocks opened the day basically flat and then oscillated up and down around the small gap all day long.  The DIA had a slightly more bearish trend to the oscillation, but all 3 major indices gave us indecisive Spinning Top or Doji type of candles.  This also sets up a potential Morning Star type of pattern in all 3.  The QQQ held its 34ema as support on the day.  Six of the 10 sectors were green on the day.  However, Energy (+3.12%) was by far the biggest mover to the upside and Communication Services (-1.01%) was the big loser on the day.

On the day, SPY lost 0.25%, DIA lost 0.50%, and QQQ lost 0.08%.  The VXX fell more than 5% to 20.14 and T2122 climbed back out of the oversold territory to 34.76.  10-year bond yields rose to 3.065% and Oil (WTI) spiked upward 3.55% to $93.57/barrel.  All-in-all, it was an indecisive day on very low volume. It sure seems like Mr. Market was waiting on more clues.

In economic news, the Mfg. PMI came in a bit below estimates Tuesday.  However, the Services PMI came in 10.5% below forecasts.  July New Home Sales also came in down 12.6%, indicating a significant pullback by potential homebuyers.  All this bad news actually buoyed markets mid-morning as traders seemed to project that this is the kind of news that would give the Fed cover to reduce the rate hike expected in September.  After the close, API reported Weekly Crude Oil stock fell 5.6 million barrels as US exports were dramatically higher.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

TWTR had a rough day Tuesday, closing down 7.32% on heavier than normal volume.  This came after it was reported that the company’s former head of cybersecurity became a whistleblower and reported to the SEC that TWTR “engaged in extreme, egregious deficiencies in privacy, security, spam, and content modernization.”  The report also alleged TWTR made misrepresentations to Elon Musk, which may impact TWTR’s lawsuit to force Musk to either buy TWTR or pay a $1 billion back-out fee.  In the complaint filed with the SEC, the whistleblower alleges he witnessed senior TWTR executives engage in deceitful and misleading communications with the company board, shareholders, and the public.  This included the CEO asking the whistleblower to provide false and misleading documents.  The complaint alleges that after refusing to comply, he was terminated.

In auto industry news, at the close, TM announced they are recognizing California’s authority to set vehicle emissions standards and dropping out of the action by fellow automakers and the former Trump administration to sue in order to block the state’s regulations.  This makes TM eligible for California state fleet purchases and follows in the footsteps of GM, F, HMC, BMW, and Volkswagen who did the same earlier this year.

Six months after Russia’s invasion, the fighting continues in Ukraine, just at a less frantic pace.  On Tuesday, the US State Dept. urged US citizens to leave Ukraine as it expects heavy attacks by Russian missiles, rockets, and artillery on civilian targets in the next few days.  This is because today is Ukrainian flag day and Thursday is Ukrainian National Independence Day.  Russia also resumed shelling very near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (the largest in Europe).  On Tuesday, that shelling killed one plant worker.  In the US, Congress is set to approve an additional $3 billion in weapons including HiMARs (made by LM), Howitzers and ammunition (made by GD), etc.

In earnings news, after the close Tuesday, JWN, INTU, TOL, CAL, and LZB all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, AAP missed on the revenue line while reporting in-line earnings. On the other side, SCSC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, URBN missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is also worth noting that JWN, AAP, and TOL all lowered forward guidance while SCSC raised their 2022 guidance.  So far this morning, RY, IIVI, and DY have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, EAT reported a beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, WOOF missed on both lines.  Of those, EAT has lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside.  Shenzhen (-2.88%), Shanghai (-1.86%), and Hong Kong (-1.20%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are mixed on modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.50%), DAX (-0.10%), and CAC (+0.09%) are leading the mixed bag in that region in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open (before data).  The DIA implies a -0.02% open, the SPY is implying an unchanged open, and the QQQ implies a -0.03% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat and Oil (WTI) is up another 1% in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am), July Pending Home Sales (10 am), Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a 5-year Bond Auction (1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include Wednesday we get reports from EAT, DY, IIVI, WOOF, and RY before the open.  Then, after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVDA, CRM, SPLK, VSCO, and WSM report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get a Q2 GDP Revision, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins.  Finally, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking.

In earnings later this week, on Thursday we hear from ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, TD, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday, JKS reports.

Markets are seemingly pausing to wait on more clues. Many talking-heads believe that news would be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Regardless of whether that is the shoe Mr. Market is waiting on to drop, all we can do is trade the chart in front of us. Premarkets have recovered from earlier lows. However, there is no denying that the short-term trend is down with potential support levels below, the broken mid-term trend was bullish, and the broken longer-term trend was bearish. So, caution is in order, and volatility (both intraday and weekly) is to be expected.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The bears started the week off with a roar as stocks gapped 1.2% – 1.5% lower at the open Monday.  The bulls never found their footing as prices slowly worked their way lower from the open to reach the lows about 3:45 pm.  Nine of the10 sectors are lower, with Consumer Cyclicals and Technology taken the worst hit (both down more than 2.6%) while Energy was the only sector to barely stay green.  All 3 indices also gave up their T-line (8ema) and 20sma levels as the uptrend line is now clearly broken.  The QQQ is even testing its 34ema for support at the moment. 

All-in-all, it was a strong bear day with a large gap and strong black candle in all the major indices.  On the day, DIA closed down 1.85%, SPY closed down 2.06%, and QQQ was down 2.63%.  Interestingly, VXX was basically flat at 21.22 and 10-year bond yields rose only slightly to 3.029%, indicating traders are not out buying up bonds (which would be normal on a big “risk off” day).  However, T2122 now shows the market is in oversold territory at 19.20, and Oil (WTI) is off just marginally to $90.67/barrel.

In general stock news, F announced 3,000 salaried and contracts job cuts (across North America and India) as part of a restructuring to move more into the electric vehicle market.  Elsewhere, workers at a GE plant in Alabama have launched a union initiative.  (A vote has not yet been authorized by the NLRB, pending the count of submitted union request cards.)  In the healthcare space, PFE and BNTX filed with the FDA for authorization to ship a Covid-19 booster specifically formulated to target the Omicron variant.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In meme stock news, AMC gapped down 36%, traded in a 27% range, and closed down 42% on the day.   This came after a rival (Regal, which is UK-based) warned of bankruptcy over the weekend and the AMC company distributed what it calls “APE Units” as a dividend over the weekend.  The issuance of APE units are similar to a 2-for-1 stock split.  Another meme stock, BBBY fell more than 16% Monday in follow-through to Friday’s 41% loss.

In energy news, Oil recovered Monday after Saudi Oil Minister bin Salman said the commodity’s futures were detached from fundamentals.  He also said OPEC+ may cut production output if the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal (which allows Iran to export oil) is reinstated.  However, the offset to this news is that Iran has said it can quickly double its 3.8 million barrels per day production if sanctions were lifted.  Elsewhere, COP won an appeal of the $8.7 billion it was awarded by the World Bank Tribunal in 2019.  (This includes over $1 billion in interest on the amount owed since the original award.)  The claim stems from Venezuela’s nationalization of COP’s assets in the country back in 2007.

In economic news, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Assn. (ELFA) said that business borrowing to lease equipment rose 2% in July.  This saw the association’s economic confidence index rise to 50. (Any reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook for the economy.)  In addition, the dollar continues to be extremely strong.  The Euro now trades at 0.993 per dollar and the British Pound is trading at 1.177/dollar making US exports more expensive, but also imports and commodities cheaper.

After the close Monday, NDSN and PANW both beat on the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, ZM reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  So far this morning, JD, MDT, BNS, M, BEKE, SJM, DKS, and XPEV have all posted beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, M, BEKE, and XPEV all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned strongly to the downside.  Thailand (+1.10%) and India (+0.50%) were the only green in the region.  Meanwhile, Australia (-1.21%), Japan (-1.19%), and South Korea (-1.10%) paced the losses across the region.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.40%), DAX (+0.09%), and CAC (-0.32%) are leading the region lower with only Russia (+1.17%) and a couple of the minor exchanges showing any strength in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat, but green, start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.12% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are flat at 3.02% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.90% to $92.03/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), July New Home Sales, (10 am), and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report (4:30 pm).  Fed member Kashkari also speaks at 7 pm.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BNS, DKS, DOLE, SJM, JD, BEKE, M, MDT, and XPEV before the open.  Then after the close, AAP, CAL, INTU, LZB, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, July Durable Goods Orders, July Pending Home Sales, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and 5-year Bond Auction are reported.  Then Thursday, we get a Q2 GDP Revision, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins.  Finally, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking.

In earnings later this week, on Wednesday we get reports from EAT, CY, IIVI, WOOF, RY, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVCA, CRM, SPLK, VSCO, and WSM.  Then Thursday we hear from ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, TD, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday JKS reports.

The bears ran wild on Monday, but the QQQ seems to be trying to hold its 34ema and the DIA may be trying to hold its own 20sma as support. The bulls will have a tailwind this morning from great earnings to start the day, but even in that victory, pessimists are looking at things like JD’s beats through a bearish lens. Plus, there is bad news in things like M cutting full-year guidance. Many traders are waiting to hear what Fed Chair Jerome Powell has to say in Jackson Hole on Friday before they take any firm view. Still, what they are trying to handicap is just whether the Fed will raise rates by 0.50% or 0.75% in September. Will Powell’s words really tell us anything a full month before the September 21 decisions date? And would that quarter of a percent make a huge difference? I don’t think so, but Mr. Market gets the only vote on both counts. With all of that said, the short-term trend is bearish and the mid-term bullish trend has been broken. So, we’re fast approaching levels of potential support, but need to reestablish a longer-term trend one way or the other. For now, the bias is bearish.

Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DVN, MRO, OXY, APA, MOS, XLE, XOM, EOG, VLO, DE, CVX, GM, NTR, KMI, PG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower at the open Friday and followed through to the downside until 11 am.  From that point, all 3 major indices ground sideways the rest of the day.  This left us with gap-down black candles with modest wicks on both ends.  The SPY and the QQQ have failed their T-lines (8ema).  However, the DIA managed right at the T-line. All 10 sectors were red with Technology, Basic Materials, and Consumer Cyclicals leading us lower.

On the day, SPY lost 1.34%, DIA lost 1.05%, and QQQ lost 1.95%.  The VXX was flat at 21.16 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) dropped like a stone, falling out of the overbought territory to the low mid-range at 35.71.  10-year bond yields rose sharply to 2.972% and Oil (WTI) was off a little less than a half of a percent to $90.09/barrel.  This resulted in the first down week following the last 4 weeks being up.

In stock news, on Friday, BRKB was also granted permission to buy up to 50% of OXY (BRKB already owns just over 20% of the stock) and OXY shares closed up 8.48% on the news.  Then on Saturday, it was reported that a jury ordered F to pay $1.7 billion in a Georgia rollover accident case from 2014.  US Sec. of Transportation Buttigieg urged the 10 largest US airlines to do more to help stranded or delayed passengers following a large uptick in cancellations and delays this summer.  AAL, DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU, ALK, and SAVE were among the companies warned to do more or face stiff fines from the DOT. Elsewhere, a federal judge found SBUX guilty of firing 7 Memphis employees for seeking to form a union and has ordered SBUX to reinstate them.  This is one of at least 3 federal cases brought by the National Labor Relations Board against SBUX (for the same illegal practice), which is desperately trying to stop unionization after 200 of its stores have recently unionized.  Finally, Elon Musk was back on TWTR Sunday, saying that TSLA will hike the price of their “full self-driving” service by 25% on Sept. 5.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In personal computer tech news, AMD, NVDA, both now have a glut of current version graphics cards that they and their distributors need to unload very soon in order to make room for new models.  The recent tremendous drop in Ethereum prices (which discouraged miners from buying as many cards on which to mine as they had in the past) is in part responsible. In addition, Ethereum will move to “proof of stake” (for the purpose of this blog just means you will no longer be able to mine Ethereum on a PC graphics card) by September 15.  Regardless of the cause, AMD and NVDA are in a bind and clashing pricing on their current stock in order to unload it.  AMD will announce its new line sometime 9/15-9/27 and will release the first 1-2 models of that lineup in October.  At the same announcement, AMD will introduce its new 7000-series CPU lineup and the first of these will be for sale in November.  INTC (which tried and failed to break into the graphics card business over the last year is also expected to announce new CPUs on 9/27, with the first of those models released for sale in December.  The point is that all 3 companies are currently under tremendous pressure to discount graphics cards, more glut pressures are coming, and newer/faster models are on the horizon.  In terms of CPUs, it appears AMD will beat Intel to market with their newest models by about 1-2 months, likely resulting in an increase in market share.

In China news, the PBOC made another surprise, but small, rate cut on Monday.  The Chinese Central Bank lowered 1-year rates by 5 basis points and the 5-year by 15 basis points.  Reuters reports leading analysts saying they expect China to continue cutting (10 basis points at a time) the remainder of the year. By themselves, rate cuts will have a supportive impact on China’s troubled real estate developers.  However, the Beijing government is also planning a $29.2 billion package of “special loans” for the construction sector to help developers deliver unfinished projects and ease its national mortgage payment boycott movement (according to Bloomberg).

In technical analysis news, both the SPY and QQQ have gapped back down to test their 20sma as support in premarket.  At this point, the SPY is holding that level and it looks like the QQQ is failing.  The DIA has a way to go, but is headed that direction.  Of course, the 20sma, 34ema, and 50sma are rising for all 3 major indices after weeks of rally.  Markets seem focused on anticipating the Fed’s September action and as of this moment, Futures are pricing in a 61-basis-point hike.  Unfortunately for traders, we will not hear from Fed Chair Powell until Saturday in Jackson Hole.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, even as China issued another surprise rate cut on Monday.  Shenzhen (+1.19%), New Zealand (+0.68%), and Shanghai (+0.61%) led the gains.  Meanwhile, India (-1.51%), South Korea (-1.21%), and Taiwan (-1.06%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are mostly in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.24%) lags while the DAX (-1.71%) and CAC (-1.19%) lead the region lower.  There are only two exchanges (Russia +1.19% and Norway +0.49%) showing green in that region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower at the bell.  The DIA implies a -0.85% open, the SPY is implying a -1.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.47% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are just very slightly up to 2.975% and Oil (WTI) is starting the week up a half of a percent to $91.22/barrel.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  However, after the close, NDSN, PANW, and ZM report.

In economic news later this week, Tuesday we get Mfg. PMI, Services PMI, July New Home Sales, and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks Report.  Then Wednesday, July Durable Goods Orders, July Pending Home Sales, Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and 5-year Bond Auction are reported.  Thursday, we get a Q2 GDP Revision, Weekly Jobless Claims, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium begins.  Finally, on Friday, we get July PCE Price Index, July Personal Spending, July Trade Goods Balance, , July Retail Inventories, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the Jackson Hole Central Banker Symposium continues with Fed Chair Powell Speaking.

In earnings later this week, on Tuesday we hear from BNS, DKS, DOLE, SJM, JD, BEKE, M, MDT, XPEV, AAP, CAL, INTU, LZB, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN.  Then Wednesday we get reports from EAT, CY, IIVI, WOOF, RY, ADSK, GES, NTAP, NVCA, CRM, SPLK, VSCO, and WSM.  On Thursday we hear from ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, GFI, GOGL, HAIN, PTON, TD, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY.  Finally, on Friday JKS reports.

Traders took profits Friday and seem in the same mood this morning. The main focus seems to be on being in front of what the Fed will do in September as the probability of a 75-basis-point hike is growing again after a brief period of 50bp expectation. In addition, Europe was spooked by Russia’s saber-rattling again when they announced a the end of last week that they “need” to shut off gas flow to Europe for 3 days of maintenance at the end of this month. This comes as Europe (and especially Germany) are desperately trying to fill storage tanks ahead of Winter. That announcement played a large part in Europe’s down start on Monday. With all of that said, the short-term trend is bearish, but the mid-term trend remains bullish and we are fast approaching a level of support from the June and Early August highs.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ETSY, NET, JNPR, FUTU, OXY, KMI, KHC, XOM, MRO, DVN, SDS, DXD, QID. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat Thursday and then then proceeded to waffle back and forth above and below the open price (positive and negative) all day long.  This left all 3 major indices above their T-lines (8ema) even though the QQQ did retest (and held) that level earlier in the day.  All 3 of those indices are giving us indecisive, Doji / Spinning Top type candles again on the day.  However, the 200sma remains an issue (overhead for SPY and QQQ, just below for DIA).  Seven of the ten sectors were green.  Energy was far and away the biggest moving sector, up more than 2.66% while Healthcare and Communications Services paced the laggards, down about a half of a percent. 

On the day, SPY gained 0.29%, DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ gained 0.24%.  The VXX was flat at 21.14, but stocks came back into overbought territory according to T2122 at a reading of 91.15.  10-year bond yields are off just slightly to 2.886%, but oil (WTI) was up 2.58% to $90.38/barrel again.  Overall, another positive rest day in a bull trend on below-average volume.

In economic news, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in a bit better than expected with 250,000 new claims (versus 265k forecast and 252k last week).  At the same time, Philly Fed Mfg. Index also came in much better than expected at +6.2 versus a -5.0 forecast and a -12.3 last month.  Taken together, this led some traders to conclude the Fed may still hike rates by 0.75% again in September (assuming the trends hold) as opposed to yesterday’s mainstream view that the hike will only be 50 basis points. FOMC voters Bullard (extreme hawk) and George (slight Hawk) both said as much during the day, indicating they were leaning toward voting for a 0.75% increase at the next meeting.  However, there was also some weaker economic news as July Existing Home Sales came in lower than expected at 4.81 million (versus 4.89 million forecast and 5.11 million in June).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In economic outlook news, consulting company PwC released the results of a survey of more than 700 US corporate top executives.  The results showed that 52% have also implemented hiring freezes and 44% are rescinding job offers.  However, the headline was that half (50%) of US companies are either currently or planning layoffs in the near future.  In the same survey, 70% say they have implemented permanent remote-work options, but 60% also said they will be requiring employees to be in the office more often starting in September.

In stock news, BBBY closed down 19.63% and traded in a 28% range on the day.  This came as near the close, GME CEO Cohen filed a revised Form 144 with the SEC confirming he has sold his entire 9.5 million share stake (including options) in BBBY for a tidy $68 million profit.  (Not bad for a trade he was in for 5 months.)  His own company, GME (another meme stock), closed down 6.39%. After the close, US safety regulators asked TSLA to provide information about their in-car cameras that are intended to monitor self-driving mode driver awareness.  Elsewhere, SBUX’s COO stepped down as the company eliminated that position in a restructuring. Finally, overnight, RIVN announced they are canceling its lowest-cost electric pickup truck.

In earnings news, after the close, AMAT, STNE, and SHG reported beating on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ROST and TKC both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  So far this morning, VIPS beat on both lines.  Meanwhile, FL and BKE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  DE was on the opposite side, posting a beat on revenue while substantially missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side, with 3 exchanges managing to stay green by only a few hundredths of a percent.  Shenzhen (-1.27%), India (-1.10%) and New Zealand (-1.10%) led the region lower.  In Europe, stocks are mixed, but leaning heavily toward the downside at mid-day.  The FTSE (unchanged), DAX (-0.93%), and CAC (-0.53%) are leading the way lower.  However, a few smaller exchanges have managed to stay green (most notably Denmark +1.17%) in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.74% open, the SPY is implying a -0.97% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.09% open at this hour.  In addition, bond yields are up briskly to 2.95% and Oil (WTI) is down more than 2% in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Friday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DE, FL, and VIPS before the open.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for after the close.  However, also be aware that today is options expiration Friday.

Despite generally strong earnings, the combination of better than expected Weekly Jobless Claims numbers (which means fear of a larger than futures currently are expecting Fed rate hike) and fear over economic outlook have stocks poised to break a 4-week winning streak in all 3 major indices. We also are facing expirations day for over $2 trillion in options at the close today. So, beware some pinning in the afternoon. With that said, the trend remains bullish, but it appears SPY has failed a test (and DIA may be failing today) of its 200sma. The gist is that the bears have the wind at their backs this morning.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. When price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all OUR MONEY!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ACAD, AMKR, CIEN, CPB, DOV, FISV, KTOS, OKE, STLD, WTRG, XME, JNPR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service