On Thursday, markets started out just on the red side of flat.  SPY opened 0.03% lower, DIA opened 0.15% lower, and QQQ opened 0.04% lower.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways in waves ranging from up half a percent to down a third of a percent.  The most notable move of the day was the late-day rally on the final up wave.  This action gave us white-bodied, indecisive candles (some form of a Spinning Top) in all three.  SPY and DIA both retested their T-line (8ema) from above and passed by bouncing up off that line.  However, it should be noted that all three of the major index ETFs traded at far less than half of their 50-day average volume. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+0.49%) leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (-0.38%) was the laggard and only sector in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.16%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ gained 0.26%.  VXX fell another 0.64% to close at 10.81 and T2122 climbed again, this time closing right in the center of its mid-range at 52.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.286% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.19% to close at $81.86 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a very low volume and just on the bullishly indecisive day where it looks like traders were either holding off until after the Presidential Debate or PCE data release.  (Or maybe traders have already left for a very long holiday break.) 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in slightly lower than expected at 233k (compared to a forecast of 236k and a previous week value of 239k).  In terms of ongoing claims, the Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher than predicted at 1,839k (versus a 1,820k forecast and the prior week’s 1,821k reading).  At the same time, May Core Durable Goods Orders were down at -0.1% month-on-month, compared to a forecast of +0.2% and the April +0.4% reading.  For the headline number, May Durable Goods Orders (again, month-on-month) were down but higher than anticipated at +0.1% (versus the -0.5% forecast but down from April’s +0.2% value).  Meanwhile, Q1 Core PCE Prices were higher than expected at +3.70% (compared to the +3.60% forecast and sharply higher than April’s +2.00% value).  At the same time, Q1 GDP was stronger than was predicted at +1.4% (versus a +1.3% forecast but down as expected from Q4’s +3.4%).  In terms of Q1 GDP Price Index, it came in exactly as predicted at +3.1% (compared to a +3.1% forecast and the Q4 +1.7%).  Elsewhere, the Preliminary May Goods Trade Balance was a bit worse than anticipated at -$100.62 billion (versus the -$96.00 billion forecast and -$99.41 billion April reading).  At the same time, Preliminary May Retail Inventories were lower than April at +0.0% (compared to April’s +0.2% number).  In the housing market, May Pending Home Sales well lower than predicted at -2.1% (versus a forecast of +0.6% but far, far better than April’s -7.7%).  Then after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet fell significantly, down $22 billion for the week, to $7.231 trillion from the prior week’s $7.253 trillion.

In terms of Fed speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said Thursday that he expects one rate cut in 2024 and as many as four cuts in 2025. As all Fed speakers, Bostic hedged, saying, “There are plausible scenarios in which more cuts, no cuts, or even a raise could be appropriate. I will let the data and conditions on the ground be my guide.”  At the same time, Fed Governor Bowman spoke again, continuing her recent statements that she is not ready to cut rates until data more clearly shows inflation is falling.  She said, “we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate, and I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.”  Bowman added, “Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive.” 

After the close, NKE missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  Both were significant with a 3% miss on revenue and a 18.8% beat on earnings.  It is also worth noting that NKE also lowered forward guidance.

In stock news, on Thursday BP announced they have halted hiring and is slowing the rollout of renewable energy (offshore wind) projects in a bid to win over investors.  At the same time, NYCB said it expects to do a one-for-three reverse stock split in mid-to-late July.  (No specific date was announced.)  Later, WMT announced it has added NKLA hydrogen fuel-celled semi-trucks to its Canadian fleet.  (This comes less than two months after reported that WMT was not receiving the TSLA semi-trucks it had ordered due to production delays.)  After the close, NOK announced it will acquire INFN in a $2.3 billion deal ($6.65 per share, a 26.4% premium on INFN’s Thursday close price).  Meanwhile, ILMN announced it will take a $1.47 billion “goodwill” charge related to its forced spinoff of Grail.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that MSFT has begun informing its customers that a Russian state-sponsored hacking group had breached their internal systems, including emails.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention narrowed the recommendation for the use of RSV vaccines.  GSK, PFE, and MRNA are the drug companies in that market.  GSK got crushing in its home British market, falling 7%.  Meanwhile, UBER and LYFT agreed to pay $175 million to settle a lawsuit over classifying drivers as contractors.  (The news came shortly after the MA Supreme Court ruled that a fall vote will let voters decide whether drivers are contractors or employees.)  At the same time, the FCC Chair (Rosenworcel) demanded that T, VZ, CMCCSA and other cable and telecom companies report their efforts to stop fraudulent political robocalls and other AI-generated political mis-information. Later, Federal regulators FERC voted 2-to-1 to approve a new LNG plant in LA state.  The move clears the way for the private “Venture Global” to become the second largest LNG exporter in the US behind LNG (Cheniere).  At the same time, the NTSB once again had to sanction BA (and said it would refer the matter to the Dept. of Justice) this time over the company’s misrepresentations and illegal release of partial undisclosed investigative information (which had tried to attribute the January 5 ALK mid-air door blowout to “lost paperwork” in an attempt to downplay company quality issues).  Once again, BA responded with a meaningless public apology. 

Elsewhere, the ultra-Republican Supreme Court blocked the EPA from regulating ozone emissions that may worsen air pollution in neighboring states.  The ruling in favor of KMI and three GOP-led states will prohibit the EPA from regulating smog-producing ozone emissions from power plants and steel furnace operations.  Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that META must face a class-action lawsuit alleging it prefers foreign workers over American citizens (because it can pay lower wages and have more docile employees when the threat of losing US residency is tied up in the employment agreement.  At the same time, in a quite surprising 5-4 decision, the US Supreme Court threw out the opioid settlement with Purdue Pharmaceuticals that had been meant to resolve the bankruptcy of the company.  Without specifically attacking the practice, this decision will make it harder for companies to use the “Texas Two-Step” process to avoid liability by declaring bankruptcy and making the waiver of liability part of the settlement agreement with creditors (plaintiffs).  (MMM and JNJ are major companies trying to use that process now to avoid liabilities.)  After the close, BAC, GS, JPM, C, MS, UBS, DB, BCS, BNPQY, and NWG settled a long-running antitrust lawsuit for rigging the $465.9 trillion interest rate swaps market.  As usual, the ten banks were not forced to admit wrongdoing and will pay only $46 to $71 million.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with seven of the region’s 12 exchanges in the green.  Shanghai (+0.73%), Japan (+0.61%), and Taiwan (+0.55%) paced the larger gainer group.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (-0.99%) and Thailand (-0.65%) led the losing exchanges.  In Europe, markets are much greener at midday with 11 of 15 bourses above break-even.  The CAC (-0.31%), DAX (+0.62%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.42% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.304% and Oil (WTI) is up almost a percent to $82.51 per barrel in early trade. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, and May Personal Spending (all at 8:30 a.m.), June Chicago PMI (9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at noon.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Friday.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday it was announced that North Korea will send troops to Ukraine to support Russia within a month.  Reportedly, Russia claims these troops will be engineering units that will free up more Russian troops (for their typical “meat wave” assault tactics).  However, Pentagon spokesman told the press that the US expects the troops to be “cannon fodder,” meaning they expect the North Koreans to be part of combat operations.  Most analysts expect this announcement to be yet another Putin gambit to get the West to self-restrict by not sending troops to train AFU (Ukraine military) troops and take over border patrol duties from Ukrainian troops.

In other news, most snap analysis of last night’s Presidential debate indicate that Biden performed poorly, reinforcing his “age problem” by not coming across as strong (in the sense of physical vigor as potentially indicated by a forceful voice).  On the other side, as usual ex-President Trump lied non-stop.  Fact-checkers found 30 lies or misleading statements by Trump during his share of the 90-minute event.  Still, most see it as a victory for Trump.

With that background, it looks as if markets (or at least the broader indices) are starting the premarket stronger. SPY and QQQ gapped up to start the premarket and had printed small white-body candles since that start. For its part, DIA has reacted much more modestly with a slight open higher in the early session and giving us a small, indecisive, white-bodied candle since then. lower. All three major index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema). Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is modestly bullish. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the center of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has plenty of room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green this morning. Only GOOGL (-0.16%) is in the red early. You should also be aware that the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.91%) and the second-biggest, TSLA (+1.12%) are leading the rest of the market higher early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day modestly lower.  SPY gapped down 0.20%, DIA gapped down 0.23%, and QQQ started off 0.20% lower at the open.  From that point, all three major index ETFs spent the rest of the day meandering sideways.  Only SPY ended on a short spurt to close bear the highs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three as DIA printed a Spinning Top that retested and stayed above its T-line (8ema).  Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ printed larger-body white candles with small upper wicks.  Both of them retested their T-line from above and bounced up off to close above.  This all happened on well-below average volume in all three, especially the DIA.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclicals (+0.63%) leading the gainers higher.  Meanwhile, Utilities (-0.43%) and Financial Services (-0.41%) led the laggard sectors lower.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA gained 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.21%.  VXX fell another 1.09% to close at 10.88 and T2122 gained a bit but remains in the lower half of its mid-range at 34.04.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields spiked to 4.325% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly (-0.21%) to close at $80.66 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was another “wait and see” day where markets basically treaded water while waiting on GDP or the Presidential Debate (or more likely PCE data on Friday). 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included Building Permits, which came in a bit higher than expected at 1.399 million (compared to a forecast of 1.386 million but below the last 1.440 million reading).  Later, May New Home Sales were lower than predicted at 619k (versus the 636k forecast and well down from the April 698k value).  Then the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed an unexpected large inventory build of 3.591 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 2.600 million barrels and the prior week’s 2.547-million-barrel drawdown). 

Then after the close, the results of the Annual Fed Bank Stress Tests were announced.  The Fed said that all 31 banks passed the tests, even withstanding a hypothetical severe economic downturn.  However, the banks tested this year showed that they would have larger (but still sustainable) losses under this year’s scenarios than the very similar 2023 scenarios.  The Fed announcement said the largest banks would see 9.9% dips in “high-quality capital” at the worst point of this year’s harshest scenario.

Also after the close, CNXC, FUL, JEF, MU, and WS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, LEVI and MLKN both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  BB is of special note.  BB had a massive miss on revenue but still beat (by 175%) on the earnings line.

In stock news, on Wednesday, AIG sold its travel insurance unit to ZURVY (Zurich Insurance) for $600 million.  Later, Reuters reported (exclusively) that German firm Robert Bosch is considering a takeover bid for WHR according to three sources.  (WHR was up 17.10% on the day on this report.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that B is exploring “strategic alternatives” including a sale of the company.  (B stocks was up 7.63% on the news.)  During the day, AMZN passed the $2 trillion valuation mark, becoming just the fifth company to do so.  (Analysts attribute the climb to AI mania, but that does not really explain Wednesday’s 3.91% gain to a level not far above the May and April highs.)  After the close, Reuters reported that CG and KKR have won the auction to acquire the $10 billion student loan portfolio from DFS.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the NYSE denied the claims of IBKR, which resulted in the brokerage losing $48 million.  (IBKR had tried to get NYSE to pay for trade executions IBKR made when BRKA dropped from $622k/share to $185/share on June 3, prior to the BRKA stock being halted due to erroneous data. At the same time, the NHTSA announced that TM is recalling 145k vehicles over side curtain air bad issues.  Later, the US Dept. of Commerce awarded a $75 million grant to ENTG as part of the Chips Act program. (The money will go toward development of a new ENTG facility in CO.    At the same time, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 307k vehicles in North America over an airbag sensor wiring problem.  Later, Bloomberg reported that VLVLY (Volvo) will delay shipments of its EX30 electric vehicle due to the higher tariffs the US has imposed on Chinese imports.  As a result, VLVLY won’t deliver these cars until 2025 (previously scheduled for late summer to early fall).  Eventually, Volvo will begin producing the cars in Belgium during 2025, which will allow it to avoid the higher tariffs by shipping to the US from that location instead of the China plant.  After the close, MO filed a request to the FDA to authorize it to sell nicotine pouch products in the US.  Also after the close, Republican state AGs refused to accept any increase in NHTSA CAFÉ (mileage) standards on car makers.  The Biden administration’s watered-down 2% per year increase (only starting in 2026) has “forced” those state AGs to file suit against the NHTSA for exceeding its regulatory authority.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Hong Kong (-2.06%) and Shenzhen (-1.53%) were way out in front pacing the losses.  Meanwhile only India (+0.74%) and Singapore (+0.35%) were in the green in the region.  In Europe, the picture is more mixed but still leans to the red side at midday.  The CAC (-0.67%), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (-0.31%) lead the region on volume.  However, Russia (+1.39%) is the biggest European mover in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.329% and Oil (WTI) is up a third of a percent to $81.19 per barrel in early trade.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q1 GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, and May Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 a.m.), and May Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AYI, MKC, and WBA.  Then after the close, NKE reports.    

In economic news later this week, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, the US Dollar hit a 38-year high against the Yen.  (Speculation continued to ramp that the Bank of Japan will intervene to make the Yen stronger soon as BoJ currency chief Kanda said they were “seriously concerned and on high alert”.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the SEC could well approve ETFs based on the spot price of ether cryptocurrency to begin trading as soon as after the July 4 holiday.

So far this morning, MKC reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AYI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WBA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  IT is worth noting that WBA also lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if markets are starting the premarket modestly lower. All three major index ETFs have retested their T-lines again in the early session and so far all have remains above that 8ema on small white-bodied candles. However, those candles are indecisive and did start off from a modest gap down in the early session. Again, remember that despite intraday movement, all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning. Only AAPL (+0.37%) and AMZN (+0.30%) are in the green early. You should also be aware that the biggest dog, NVDA (-1.65%) is the biggest mover and biggest loser of the group this morning, acting as an anchor on the rest of the market.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday saw SPY and QQQ open higher and DIA opened down slightly.  SPY gapped up 0.23%, QQQ gapped up 0.446%, and DIA opened 0.12% lower.  From that point, the three major index ETFs diverged.  SPY spent the day grinding sideways.  At the same time, QQQ rallied modestly all day, closing near the highs.  However, DIA sold off with more vigor than the other two until 12:50 p.m. before grinding sideways near the lows the rest of the day.  This action gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top that retested and crossed above its T-line (8ema) again.  The QQQ gave us a gap-up, white-bodied candle the crossed back up above its T-line.  Meanwhile, DIA printed a gap-down, black-bodied candle that retested (from above) and closed still just above its T-line.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Industrials (-0.84%) and Utilities (-0.83%) out front leading the red sectors lower. Meanwhile, Technology (+1.30%) was the biggest mover and only gainer.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.37%, DIA lost 0.75%, and QQQ gained 1.14%.  VXX fell another 1.79% to close at 11.00 and T2122 dropped back to the bottom of its mid-range, just outside oversold territory at 22.50. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.224% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.02% to close at $80.80 per barrel.  So, Tuesday saw the long-time leading index ETFs perhaps putting in a bottom to their pullback while the DIA might have started its own pullback after a six-day rally.  It is also worth noting that NVDA (+6.76%) broke its 3-day selloff to again lead tech names and the second most-traded name, TSLA, also gained 2.61%.  This put us back in the pattern the market has seen for months.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited.  It included the June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which came in above expectation at 100.4 (compared to a 100.0 forecast but down from May’s 101.3).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks, which showed an unexpected inventory build of 0.914 million barrels (versus a forecasted drawdown of 3.000 million barrels but lower than the prior week’s 2.264-million-barrel inventory build).

In terms of Fed speak, Fed Governor Bowman indicated she felt it is appropriate to hold rate policy steady (no hike or cut) for some time.  Very early Tuesday she did this by outlining scenarios or threats for both a hike or cut.  She said, “I have not written in further rate cuts in my statement of economic projections for the bulk of this year.”  She went on to say that she is open to a rate hike if inflation does not pull back further, but that is inflation is moving toward the 2% goal “it will eventually become appropriate to lower the federal funds rate.”  Later, Fed Governor Cook told the Economic Club of NY that the Fed is back on track for a rate cut…when the economy meets her expectation.  Specifically, Cook said, “With significant progress on inflation and the labor market cooling gradually, at some point it will be appropriate to reduce the level of policy restriction to maintain a healthy balance in the economy.”  (This seemed to be a bit more dovish than Bowman, although both Governors hedge their statements.)

After the close, FDX missed slightly on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line.  At the same time, WOR missed by quite a bit on both the top and bottom lines. However, FDX raised forward guidance and post-market trading reacted positively.

In stock news, on Tuesday Reuters reported that BA and EADSY (Airbus) are near a deal to carve up their supplier SPR.  Reportedly, EADSY will take the SPR plant in Kinston, NC as well as the plant in Northern Ireland.  The remainder of the company would go to BA.  Later, XOM told Reuters it may need to suspend operations at its refinery in Northern France if strikers continue to block access to the plant.  (That plant produces 20% of the refining capacity for all of France.)  In fighting the union demands, XOM said that refinery has lost more than $535 million over the last 5.5 years.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that takeover talks between DASH and its London-based rival Deliveroo have stalled.  (The two sides had far different valuations for the Deliveroo company.)  After the close, RIVN shares spiked more than 60% after VLKAF (Volkswagen) announced a $5 billion investment (by 2026) in RIVN as well as a joint venture with the EV carmaker. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, the NHTSA announced that F will recall 668k F-150 pickup trucks over a transmission issue.  At the same time, TSLA announced another recall of its Cybertrucks, this time requiring physical (not software) updates.  The cause of this recall is wiper and trim defects in 11,000 vehicles.  Later, VZ agreed to pay a $1 million fine over repeated 911 outages in six states during 2022.  At the same time, a US District Judge rejected a $30 billion antitrust settlement where V and MA agreed to limit the fees they charge merchants.  (The objecting majority of merchants who had opposed the settlement allege that the fees remain too high for the service being provided by V and MA.)  After the close, the NTSB charged NSC for its venting and burning of hazardous materials after the February 2023 train derailment in East Palestine OH.  (Last month NSC agreed to a $15 million penalty and $57.1 million in reimbursement for government cleanup costs to resolve a US lawsuit on the event.)  Also after the close, firefighters in the state of CT sued DD, MMM, and HON over protective “turnout gear” that was contaminated with forever chemicals (PFAS). (Last year the three companies reached an $11 billion settlement over the same chemicals being in firefighting foam and other products that then polluted drinking water supplies.)

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board with the lone exception of Australia (-0.71%).  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.55%), Japan (+1.26%), and New Zealand (+1.01%) led the region higher.  In Europe, markets are mixed but lean toward the red side at midday.  The CAC (-0.56%), DAX (+0.11%), and FTSE (+0.01%) lead the region lower while Russia (+1.39%) is an outlier to the upside in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.03% open, but the QQQ implies a +0.12% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are up to 4.283% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent to $81.36 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Building Permits (8:30 a.m.), May New Home Sales (10 a.m.), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), and the Fed Bank Stress Test Results (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GIS, PAYX, and UNF.  Then after the close, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q! GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, May Retail Inventories, and May Pending Home Sales.  Finally, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, Reuters reported that the state of DE is close to approving a new law that will drastically change corporate governance for companies incorporated in that state.  The law would allow corporations to enter into contracts giving specific shareholders outsized power over board decisions.  For example, in February a DE Court invalidated an agreement that had given one shareholder (the founder) veto power over all board decisions of MC.  Under the new law, that contract would stand.  Elsewhere, after the close, Reuters reported an internal memo obtained from CDK Global (software) indicates the company does not expect to recover from the outage caused by hacker attacks before the end of the month.  (That CDK software powers the internal operations of 15,000 car dealers and service centers in the US and Canada.  As a result of the outage, those businesses are operating on paper without visibility into parts inventories, online ordering of parts, insurance pricing, or buyer vetting.)  Finally, the Equipment Leasing and Finance Assn. (ELFA) announced that May business equipment financing borrowing increased 11% in May versus the same month in 2023.  However, this was down 7% from April 2024.  ELFA speculated that businesses are holding off on equipment spending until interest rates drop.

So far this morning, GIS reported a miss on the revenue line while beating on earnings.

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive this morning, perhaps waiting on data later in the week. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly higher, but have printed small, black-bodied candles since then with varying degrees of pullback. SPY and QQQ both remain above their T-line (8ema) while DIA is retesting its own T-line from above in the early session. Before you get caught up in the tick-level movements, just bear in mind that all three major index ETFs are still quite near their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. However, the mid-term and especially the longer-term trend in all three major index ETFs remains very bullish. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is still in its mid-range (albeit the very bottom of that mid-range). Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, that biggest dog, NVDA (+2.48%) continues its Tuesday bounce-back and will do much to pull other indexes (and the whole market) higher.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets diverged Monday, even on broadly sideways action.  The SPY opened 0.06% higher, DIA gapped up 0.30%, and QQQ gapped down 0.39%.  From there, SPY and QQQ put in slow selloffs (QQQ faster than SPY) that both hit a crescendo the last 30 minutes of the day and closed on their lows.  For its part, DIA rallied sharply after the open until 11 a.m.  From that point, DIA followed the slow selloff (even slower than SPY) until 1:30 p.m. and then moved sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us a black-bodied Inverted Hammer that crossed below its T-line (8ema) in the SPY. QQQ printed a large-bodied, black candle with upper wick that also crossed below its T-line.  However, DIA gave us a gap-up, white-bodied candle with an upper wick.  This all happened on slightly less-than-average volume in the QQQ and DIA with SPY having volume that was well-below-average. 

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+2.42%) way out in front (by 1.1%) leading the other eight green sectors higher.  Meanwhile, Technology (-1.24%) was the worst-performing sector by more than 1.25%.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.34%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ lost 1.30% as money rotated out of the tech names.  VXX fell 0.80% to close at 11.20 and T2122 moved up to the high-end of its mid-range at 69.59. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.23% and Oil (WTI) popped 1.16% to close at $81.67 per barrel.  So, Monday was a rotation day with money fleeing technology (NVDA was down 6.68% on $54 billion in stock traded) and seeking safety in the big oil (XOM +2.97%, CVX +2.60%, and COP +3.44%) and financial names (JPM +1.21%, BRKB +1.06%, BAC +1.34%). It is worth noting that NVDA, which has been the driving engine of the market for months, has been down almost 13% over the last three trading sessions.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

In terms of Fed speak, Cleveland Fed President Mester (retires next week) said she believe the Fed needs to remain open to selling more of its mortgage-backed securities as part of reducing the Fed Balance Sheet.  However, she said that she doesn’t think this will happen soon.  Mester said, “I don’t think it’s immediate that we should be selling MBS.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told CNBC that while inflation is (slightly) cooling, he is looking for more confirmation before a rate cut.  Goolsbee said he is a closet optimist but that the Fed need to get “a little bit more confidence on the inflation side.”  He said, “If unemployment claims are going up (the unemployment rate is inching up) many of the other measures have cooled down to something like what they were before the pandemic and you start to see weakness on consumer spending.”  If this comes to pass Goolsbee said the Fed will need to start thinking about balancing both sides (inflation and employment) rather than focusing on just inflation. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Daly told an audience that inflation is not the only risk.  She said, “We must continue the work of fully restoring price stability without a painful disruption to the economy.”  She continued, saying the Fed must “exhibit care” …  (while there is still) “more work to do” (on bringing inflation down) … “inflation is not the only risk we face.”

After the close, there were no noteworthy earnings reports.

In stock news, on Monday, UPS sold its Coyote Logistics unit to RXO for $1.025 billion (UPS bought the company for $1.8 billion in 2015). Later, NVO announced it will spend $4.1 billion to build a new manufacturing plant in NC to boost production of its highly-profitable weight loss drug Wegovy.  At the same time, PARA announced it will raise the price of its streaming services in late summer.  Later, BA announced its troubled Starliner has again delayed its return to earth.  The first manned flight of Starliner is stuck, docked to the International Space Station after having rescheduled its undocking three times now.  (Current plans are for a July 6 attempt to return to earth, which, if hit, would mean the 8-day mission had been forced to last a month.)  After the close, Bloomberg reported that contrary to earlier rumors, AAPL and META are not in talks about forming an AI partnership.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals threw out a proposed class-action suit against UBER which alleged the company process for terminating low-rated drivers was racially discriminatory.  (Evidence had not been presented showing the company terminated a higher percentage of non-white drivers.  However, without discovery, the plaintiffs argued they could not get such data.)  Later, the CEO Stankey of T, asked that Congress give the FCC power (and a mandate) to require big tech firms like META and GOOGL to pay into a fund to be used to subsidize access to broadband services.  At the same time, family members of BA 737 MAX crash victims asked a US District Judge to appoint a corporate monitor to examine BA safety and corporate compliance procedures.  The request comes after the group had accused BA of reneging on the promises the company gave in 2021 to avoid prosecution related to the two crashes in 2018 and 2019.  Later, PacifiCorp (owned by BRKB) settled with 378 plaintiffs for $150 million related to the 2020 fires caused by the utility’s electric equipment.  This settlement resolves nearly all individual claims, but many corporate and government claims remain unsolved.  The US has also threatened to sue PacifiCorp for failure to pay $356 million in costs and damages for the single “Slater” fire.  (This brings the company’s total settlements to over $1 billion for those fires.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green.  Australia (+1/36%), Japan (+0.95%), and India (+0.78%) led the region higher.  In Europe, stocks are mostly lower at midday.  The CAC (-0.66%), DAX (-0.88%), and FTSE (-0.19%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed but positive start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.41% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.224% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.65% to $81.10 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman twice.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include CCL and SNX.  Then after the close, FDX and WOR report. 

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from GIS, PAYX, UNF, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS.  On Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday Bloomberg reported 2023 saw record contributions to 401(k) accounts again as in 2022.  The average percent of salary deposited into the 4012(k)s stayed the same at 11.7%, but average salaries increased more than had been seen in quite a while.  Elsewhere, the San Jose Mercury News reported Monday that for the first time, utilities (especially electric companies) across CA and broader in the West, enter peak summer wildfire season without insurance.  Similar to the ways that hurricanes have made insurance companies stop serving FL, TX, and other disaster-prone regions, wildfires have caused insurance companies to raise rates to untenable levels or abandon insuring major utilities altogether.  As a result, the utilities are self-insuring this fire season in what amounts to a gamble of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.  Finally, Reuters reported that the TSA screened an all-time record of 2.99 million passengers Sunday.  This was the highest number of passengers ever screened on a single day.

In late-breaking news, the EU Antitrust Commission charged MSFT with “abusive bundling” of its Office and Teams applications.  (Teams is just a business version of Skype.)  In 2023, MSFT unbundled the two from their subscription “365” service in a bid to head off these charges.  However, the EU called the move “insufficient” due to the already accomplished integration and Office’s massive market share.  Elsewhere, Fed Governor Bowman (a long-time Hawk) told a London audience that she was open to raising rates if inflation does not pull back further.  However, she also hedged her bets by saying, “Should the incoming data indicate that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent goal, it will eventually become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate…”

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive but leaning bullish so far this morning. SPY and QQQ are both retesting their T-line (8ema) from below. Meanwhile, DIA is printing a gap-up, black-bodied candle in the premarket such that it is back below Monday’s close. Just continue to bear in mind that all three major index ETFs are still close to their all-time highs. So, the short-term trend is mixed. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the upper-end of its mid-range. Therefore, the market still has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green again this morning. Only META (-0.16%) and MSFT (-0.10%) are in the red so far in the early session.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, SPY was the only gapper, while QQQ and DIA opened little changed.  SPY gapped down 0.46% (likely mostly due to the SPX dividend), while both DIA and QQQ opened just 0.07% lower. From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways for the rest of the day with QQQ showing more volatility (wave height) than the two large-cap ETFs.  This action gave us indecisive, Doji or Spinning Top-like candles in all three.  SPY retested (and passed the test) its T-line (8ema).  The other two remained above their own T-lines.  All three major index ETFs printed less-than-average volume.  On the week, DIA printed a Bullish Engulfing candle that crossed back above its T-line while SPY and QQQ printed high-wick, white-bodied candles at all-time weekly high closes.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Healthcare (+0.67%) out in front leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Basic Materials (-0.49%), Utilities (-0.48%), and Energy (-0.47%) paced the losses.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.46% (again, mostly on the SPX dividend), DIA lost 0.19%, and QQQ lost 0.46%.  VXX fell 2.25% to close at 11.29 and T2122 moved back into the lower-end of its mid-range at 29.10. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.257% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.82% to close at $80.63 per barrel.  So, on Friday we saw nothing day with Triple Witching passing on low volume and volatility.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Preliminary June S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in above expectations at 51.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.0 and the May 51.3 value).  At the same time, the Preliminary June S&P Global Services PMI was even more above what was anticipated at 55.1 (versus a 53.4 forecast and May’s 54.8 reading).  This gave us a stronger than predicted Preliminary June S&P Global Composite PMI that was at 54.6 (compared to the 53.5 forecast and May’s 54.5 reading).  Later, May Existing Home Sales were also strong at 4.11 million (versus the 4.08 million forecasted but down from April’s 4.14 million number).  This was a decline of 0.7%.  Meanwhile, the May US Leading Economic Indicator Index was lower than was forecast at -0.5% (compared to a -0.4% forecast but better than April’s -0.6% reading).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday the FDIC and Fed gave failing grades to four of the eight largest US banks in relation to their plans to unwind derivatives trades in the event of a market shock. C, JPM, GS, and BAC were ordered to improve their bankruptcy plans after being chided for their deficiencies.  Later, APPL was forced to announce that it will not roll out its AI products (vainly labeled “Apple Intelligence”) in the EU in 2024 due to anti-trust concerns and fear of violating the EU’s DMA law.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Taiwan (-1.89%), Shenzhen (-1.55%), and Shanghai (-1.17%) paced the losses, leading the region lower.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Finland (-0.31%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.84%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+-0.50%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.07% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.267% and Oil (WTI) is up three-tenths of a percent to $80.97 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday all we have is two Fed speakers.  Fed Governor Waller spoke at 3 a.m. and Sn Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at 2 p.m.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman twice.  Then on Wednesday Building Permits, May New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Bank Stress Test Results are reported.  Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q! GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, May Retail Inventories, and May Pending Home Sales.  Finally, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, CCL, SNX, FDX and WOR report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from GIS, PAYX, UNF, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS.  On Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that China is pushing V and MA to lower their bank card transaction fees inside China.  If that were to happen, it seems likely pressures from the EU (and much less likely the US) would follow quickly.  At the same time, Fed data released Friday shows that the US job market has largely come back to normal.  The data indicates that immigrants have helped a lot, filling lower-end jobs that American’s don’t want.  The study looked at the ratio of JOLTS (job openings) to unemployed persons. That ratio is down from a historical high of over 2-to-1 after the pandemic to a current 1.25 level.  This puts us back in line with pre-pandemic historical lows.  (If you prefer to look at the inverse, there are 0.7 unemployed persons per job opening in the US.)

In late-breaking news, TGT made a move to increase its online third-party sales.  TGT announced Monday that any company working with e-commerce firm SHOP can apply to join the TGT third-party marketplace.  Elsewhere, EU regulators announced that AAPL is in breach of the European Digital Markets Act for failing to make changes to its app store (allowing third-party apps to steer customers to alternative marketplaces or their own websites).  AAPL could face fines up to 10% of the company’s total annual turnover (about $400 billion).

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive so far this morning. None of the three major index ETFs show much change and all remains modestly above their T-line (8ema). Remember that SPY and QQQ are about 1% from their all-time high and DIA is less than 2% from that mark. So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the lower-end of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. However, it is that biggest dog, NVDA (-1.97%), that is in the red and holding the others in check.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

TSLA and AVGO led broader market ETFs to open higher (again) Thursday while DIA started lower.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, QQQ gapped up 0.74%, and DIA gapped down 0.20%.  From that opening level, SPY and QQQ slowly sold off, reaching the lows at 12:35 p.m.  At that point, both of the broader index ETFs reversed course and slowly rallied the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA sold off a bit more sharply, reaching its lows at 10:40 a.m. Then it ground sideways until 12:35 p.m. when it started its own slow, steady rally lasting 3 p.m. when it had recrossed the opening gap.  From there, DIA slowly sold back down toward the opening level by day end.  This action gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Hanging Man type candle in the SPY.  The QQQ gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top candle.  Finally, DIA printed a gap-down Doji candle that did not quite retest its T-line (8ema) from below.  It is worth noting that this was the fourth-straight new record high close in both the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.27%) way out in front (by half a percent) leading the rest of the market lower.  Meanwhile, Technology (-0.06%) and Utilities (-0.06%) holding up better than other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.20%, DIA lost 0.21%, and QQQ gained 0.54%.  VXX was down 0.28%, closing at a very low 10.86 and T2122 dropped back down into its oversold territory at 12.70.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell sharply again to 4.246% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.49% to close at $78.01 per barrel. So, on Thursday we saw divergence in the market as NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, and AVGO nearly alone dragging the broader index ETFs higher (perhaps with the help of good PPI data), while 70% of the market was down.  It is also worth noting that SPY had only half of its average volume while DIA and QQQ had less-than-average volume.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 242k (compared to a forecast of 225k and the prior week’s 229k value).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, were also above expectations at 1,820k (versus a forecast of 1,800k, and the prior week’s 1,790k reading).  At the same time, May Core PPI (month-on-month) was down at +/-0.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and well below the April +0.5% value).  On the headline side, May PPI (month-on-month) was also down significantly at -0.2% (versus the +0.1% forecast and far below April’s +0.5% reading).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet actually grew slightly on the week, now standing at $7.259 trillion (compared to last week’s $7.256 trillion) for a $3 billion increase.

In economic speak news, Treasury Sec. Yellen told the Economics Club of NY that US public sector investments are crucial to sustainable growth because it attracts private capital investments.  However, she warned that China’s model of huge state subsidies of industrial projects was unacceptable to the world.  (Expanding on this, in more of an economic or economic-political philosophy clarification, Yellen said that supply-side economics relies too heavily on tax cuts and has been proven to fail to benefit workers, causing disparity.)  She said “We have learned through experience that heavy-handed central planning through government dictates is not a sustainable economic strategy … But neither is traditional supply-side economics, which ignores the importance of public infrastructure, education and workforce training and government-supported basic research.”  She concluded, by saying tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation have not fueled “growth and prosperity for the nation at large.”  Elsewhere, NY Fed Pres. Williams pushed back against the idea of rate cuts anytime soon in his noon speech.  Williams said, “we aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now (at the Fed) … and it’s premature to speculate about them.” 

After the close, ADBE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, RH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that ADBE also raised forward guidance.  (ADBE was up 17% in post-market trading.)

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that BA is investigating new quality issues with 787 Dreamliner jets that have not been delivered yet.  This comes after the company discovered hundreds of fasteners were incorrectly installed in fuselages.  (It was found than many were incorrectly torqued, or tightened, while some were in the wrong place altogether.)  At the same time, INSM announced that its negotiations with AZN over commercialization of its brewnsocatib drug have ended with no deal.  Later, Bloomberg reported that WFC had fired more than a dozen employees from its wealth mgmt. and investment unit for faking work by using simulation of keyboard activity.  At the same time, WMT announced it will re-launch a private label fashion line focused on attracting Gen Z customers. 

Elsewhere, TSN suspended its CFO (the great-grandson of company founder) after his second arrest for driving under the influence in two years.  At the same time, F announced it will soon reverse its decision and allow all of its dealerships to sell electric vehicles.  (Previously, F had required dealers to spend between $500k and $1 million on equipment, training, and “programs” before they were allowed to sell F electric vehicles.)  Later, GME stock prices were boosted on the day after Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty) exercised 40,000 call options, taking possession of 4 million new shares and making him the fourth-largest shareholder with over 9 million shares.  (Gill also took profits on 80,000 call options, meaning he liquidated all 120k call options he held going into the day.)  GME was up 14.28% on the day.  At the same time, Elon Musk claimed victory early Thursday, but the shareholder vote did not begin until after the close. By 7 p.m. Eastern, it was announced that shareholders had in fact approved Musk’s $56 billion pay package.  The package had originally been based on the value of TSLA rising to more than $650 billion between 2018 and 2028.  (As of now, TSLA has a $582 billion market cap, but in 2021 it was worth $1.2 trillion at its peak.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the largest oil industry trade group (representing the likes of XOM and CVX) sued the EPA, seeking to block the Biden Administration’s efforts to reduce car emissions.  (The EPA tightened, slightly…by 2% per year after 2026, to encouraging electric vehicle adoption.) The suit alleges the EPA exceeded it authority in setting emissions standards that would require a change in fuel type for the auto industry to meet.  Later, the state of FL and DIS ended the long feud (based on the Gov. retaliating against the Mouse House for its opinion on his “Don’t Say Gay” law), by signing a 15-year deal allowing DIS to develop additional portions of the oversight district. (The board of that district was the method the Gov. used to attack DIS for its criticism.)  At the same time, the FAA Administrator Whitaker admitted the agency had been “too hands off” with BA by focusing on analysis of the faked or wrong paperwork BA submitted rather than in-person audits of production line work (prior to the paperwork being created). Whitaker said that approach had been corrected and will not revert (in what was an unstated claim that BA could not be trusted).

Meanwhile, JPM won a court battle with a Greek fintech firm who created an app called Viva Wallet.  The court ruled JPM had no incentive to depress Viva Wallets value because the bank owned 48.5% of the app-creating company.  Under the ruling, the Greek firm loses the right to refuse JPM’s offer to buy them out and valued the company at $5.4 billion.  At the same time, a lawsuit was filed against AAPL in CA, accusing the company of 12,000 female employees less than men for comparable jobs.  Later, the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of SBUX, throwing out a lower court ruling that the company had to abide by an NRLB injunction requiring the company to rehire employees fired when they sought to unionize.  (The ruling was actually that the lower court had used the wrong legal standard for siding with the NLRB and the case must be reheard at the lower court level.)  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a complaint to the EU antitrust regulators over alleged user tracking by its Chrome web browser.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with six exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Taiwan (+0.86%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-0.94%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is much weaker with 14 of the 15 bourses in the red and only Russia (+0.43%) in the green.  The CAC (-2.58%), DAX (-1.51%), and FTSE (-0.53%) are a good representation of the spread and lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.88% open, the SPY is implying a -0.60% open, and QQQ is implying a -0.33% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.207% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $78.67 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include May Import Price Index and May Export Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Monetary Policy Report (11 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, cocoa traded back above $10k per ton as the supply outlook worsens.  (The world’s top producer Ivory Coast halted exports for June and forward sales of next season’s crop on Thursday.)  Elsewhere, twice-impeached, convicted felon ex-President Trump said Thursday that, if elected, he would reduce corporate tax rates again, as well as considering cuts to other income tax rates (in addition to extending the tax cuts from his administration scheduled to sunset in 2025). This was part of his campaign to buy corporate donors and PAC support.  (The statement was made to a group of CEOs including JPM’s Dimon and AAPL’s Cook.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported some surprising data out of NY.  The report said average Manhattan apartment rents unexpectedly slipped in May, with new leases showing a 3.5% decline in price from a year earlier.

In geopolitical news, Russian “President” Putin made a propaganda announcement of his preconditions that Ukraine would need to meet before he would even begin peace negotiations (following 2.5 years of his unprovoked invasion and genocidal war against Ukraine).  Those preconditions include Ukraine ceding their provinces of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to Russia.  (Russia illegally annexed those four oblasts after its invasion.  In addition, he demanded that Ukraine denounce and give up its long-standing ambition to join NATO.  (The latter would leave Ukraine as a target he can invade again without NATO retaliation, should they ever do anything he does not like or he just feels more prepared.)  These are all obvious non-starter conditions, but are intended as PR ahead of the global peace conference to be attended by 80-90 countries (Russia not invited).

In other news, interestingly, Elon Musk’s big $56 billion pay package win in the shareholder vote Thursday DOES NOT override the court ruling from five months ago, when Musk’s pay package was thrown out as egregious as part of a shareholder lawsuit.  However, the post-verdict vote could help his (technically TSLA’s) appeals of the verdict in the future.  Not one to let things alone, Musk told the board that “his Optimus humanoid robots” could make TSLA worth $25 trillion (which would be 55% the S&P 500’s combined value at today’s prices).  That figure should be weighed against TSLA’s current $580 billion value.

With that background, the Bears have control in the premarket this morning. The SPY and QQQ opened a bit higher but have put in large black-body candles since then. (However we should note they are both well up off the early session lows.) Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the premarket and has also sold off since then. but again us up off the early session lows.) Again, SPY and QQQ sit at all-time highs as they wait for the open while DIA is 4.3% below its all-time high. So, Bears are in control this morning, but are coming from different starting places. Again, the short-term is mixed with DIA definitely bearish and SPY and QQQ clearly bullish. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, QQQ is now extended far above its T-line and is badly in need of rest or pullback. Neither of the others are extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its oversold range. So, the bottom line is that outside of the QQQ, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, it is again the two biggest TSLA (+1.35%) and NVDA (+0.03%) that are the ones holding onto green territory. Remember, its Friday, Pay Day, and that next Wednesday is a market holiday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday started with a strong bullish gap and then the rest of the day was really a sideways grind punctuated by small rallies and selloffs.  The SPY gapped up 0.87%, DIA gapped up 0.92%, and QQQ gapped up 0.86%.  However, from there we saw a major divergence with SPY and QQQ continuing to follow through with a rally the first hour before slowly grinding sideways with a slight bearish trend.  After the 5-minute reaction to the Fed decision/statement at 2 p.m., SPY was back to its opening level and QQQ was half way back down to that point.  The rest of the day was a roller coaster ride for those two leading index ETFs that left them little changed from the 2 p.m. level.  Meanwhile, after the gap higher, DIA sold off slowly and steadily all day, recrossing the gap on the Fed 5-minute selloff and then riding waves sideways the rest of the day.  DIA retested and failed its T-line (8ema) from below while SPY and QQQ both printed new all-time highs and new all-time high closes.This action gave us Shooting Star type candles in the SPY and QQQ (more body on QQQ’s star) and a gap-up Bearish Engulfing of a Doji in the DIA. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.97%) way out in front (by almost a percent) leading the rest of the market higher.  Meanwhile, it was Communications Services (-0.97%) that was lagging well behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.82%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 1.31%.  VXX was down almost 2%, closing at a very low 10.89 and T2122 spiked higher but settled back to close in the center of its mid-range at 51.68.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 4.318% and Oil (WTI) was 0.56% to close at $78.33 per barrel.  So, what we saw Wednesday premarket joy at good CPI data and then a drift lower until the Fed data wasn’t terrible.  The remainder of the day was a roller coaster ride on every word Powell uttered and the tea leaf reading of dot plots and statement parsing.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included May Core CPI (month-on-month), which came in down and a tick lower than expected at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and April reading).  On a year-on-year basis, May Core CPI was also a tick lower than expected and two-tenths down from April at +3.4% (versus the +3.5% forecast and +3.6% April value).  At the same time, the headline May CPI (month-on-month) was flat at +/-0.0%, lower than the forecasted +0.1% and well down from April’s +0.3% number.  On a year-on-year basis, May CPI was down a tick to +3.3% (versus the +3.4% forecast and April reading).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories gave us an unexpected inventory build of 3.730 million barrels (compared to a forecasted draw down of 1.200 million barrels and the prior week’s 1.233-million-barrel build). Later, the May Federal Budget Balance was far higher than predicted at -$347.0 billion (versus a -$279.6 billion forecast and far worse than April’s +$201.0 billion surplus).

However, the big afternoon news was from the Fed, which left Interest Rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%.  At the same time, the FOMC Economic Projections (dot plots) showed a dramatically higher Q2 Current Year Interest Rate Projection of 5.1% (compared to a Q1 forecast of 4.6% this year and even well above the expected 4.9% value).  Meanwhile, the Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection was 4.1% (which was dead on the predictions but two ticks higher than Q1’s forecast of 3.9% for 2025).  The Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection remained unchanged at 3.1% (in line with the forecast and Q1 estimate for 2026).  Finally, the Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection was up, but in line with predictions at 2.8% (compared to a 2.8% forecast of the forecast and up from Q1’s 2.6% average projection for long-term).

In terms of words, the Fed Statement said there has been “modest further progress toward the committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.” It also removed the entire section about reducing the Fed’s pace of decline in reducing its balance sheet.  During his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said “Our economy has made considerable progress toward both goals over the past few years.”  He continued, “We’ll need to see more good data to bolster our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” …  “We see today’s report as progress and as, you know, building confidence … But we don’t see ourselves as having the confidence that would warrant beginning to loosen policy at this time.”  Finally, during questioning, he seemed to indicate that jobs data may be overstated.  Still, he said the jobs market remains strong and the cooling is gradual (which is a good thing).

After the close, AVGO reported beats on both revenue and earnings.  Meanwhile, PLAY reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AVGO also raised its forward guidance.

In stock news, on Wednesday FDX announced it is cutting 2,000 “back office” jobs in Europe amid weak freight demand. Later, CAT hiked its dividend by 8% to $1.30/share and announced an additional $20 billion in stock buybacks.  At the same time, LUV CEO Jordan announced that he will not resign in the face of calls for him to do so from activist investor Elliott Investment Mgmt. (Elliott recently announced they’d taken a $1.9 billion position in LUV and openly called for leadership change.)  Later, SPCE announced a 1-for-20 reverse stock split to take effect on June 14.  After the close, JPM raised its guidance, saying it expects investment banking revenue to jump 25%-30% in Q2. 

Elsewhere, just a reminder that the TSLA shareholder meeting and vote on CEO Musk’s $56 billion pay package will be held today. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the NHTSA announced that FSRN (Fisker electric vehicles) will recall 18,000 cars due to faulty software that cause the cars to act “in non-compliance with safety standards.”  Later, a US appeals court threw out a lower court order that had agreed with the NRLB ruling prohibiting AMZN from firing union supporters.  The ruling essentially allows AMZN to fire employees it thinks support unions or unionization of AMZN facilities.  At the same time, thousands of AMZN “flex drivers” (who work like UBER drivers) classified as contractors have filed arbitration claims. The 15,800 drivers submitted claims, seeking to be treated as full-time employees, paid overtime, and reimbursed for work-related expenses like mileage and cell phone use.  (453 similar cases are being litigated in courts.)

Meanwhile, a lawsuit was filed against CAG alleging the company has been deceiving consumers by both “short weighting” its packages and shipping frozen fish products that were not 100% fish.  At the same time, Reuters reported that the NHTSA is seeking information from GOOGL related to a series of incidents involving the Waymo (the company’s self-driving vehicles unit).  The investigation stems from 22 reports the NHTSA received in May related to 17 collisions.)  Later, after the close, the FAA Administrator (head) Whitaker told the Senate that it will maintain increased in-person oversight of BA and SPR for the foreseeable future.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again but leaned to the green side with eight of the 12 exchanges above break-even. Taiwan (+1.19%), New Zealand (+1.11%), South Korea (+0.98%), and Hong Kong (+0.97%) paced the gains.  However, in Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.23%), DAX (-1.05%), and FTSE (-0.45%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed to green open.  The DIA implies a -0.29% open.  However, SPY implies a +0.13% open and QQQ implies a +0.66% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are at 4.316% and Oil (WTI) is off by 0.65% to $77.99 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, and May PPI (all at 8:30 a.m., and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Williams (noon) and Treasury Sec. Yellen (noon).  There major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Thursday, KFY and SIG.  Then, after the close, ADBE and RH report.   

In economic news later this week, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

So far this morning, SIG and KFY reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In miscellaneous news, AAPL’s two-day rally Tuesday and Wednesday (following its “AI-heavy” developer’s conference) has taken it back to the top spot as most valuable (largest market cap) in the world.  AAPL was worth $3.29 trillion at the close mid-week. Elsewhere, the US Treasury expanded sanctions on Russia Wednesday.  The new sanctions forced Russia to halt all Dollar-based and Euro-based trading on its main stock exchange.  Meanwhile, the head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau testified before Congress that it has reported that JPM and PYPL intend to use their customer’s payment data to allow targeted advertising.  Chopra called on Congress to pass laws preventing this financial transaction data from being sold for marketing purposes. Finally, an EPA study found the air in southeast Louisiana (Chemical alley) is toxic, containing a thousand times higher levels of ethylene oxide than is considered safe.  Long-term exposure to this chemical is known to cause cancer.  (Dangerous levels start at 11 parts per trillion, but measured levels reached 40 parts per billion.)

In Fedwatch news, following Wednesday’s announcements and statements, the Fed Funds futures show 91.7% of traders expect no cut in July.  The probabilities also show a 61.5% chance of a September cut, a 74.3% probability of a cut by the meeting in November, and a 93.5% likelihood of a cut by the December meeting.  With that said, the average of the Fed dot plots now expects one rate cut this year.

With that background, the Bulls gapped QQQ and to a lesser extent SPY higher to start the premarket. (Mostly on an Elon Musk tweet that he is confident he has the votes to get his $56 billion pay package approved later today.) Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the early session. All three of the major index ETFs have printed indecisive black-bodied candles since that start to the morning. Again, SPY and QQQ sit at all-time highs as they wait for the open. So, we have a mixed picture in the short-term, but on numbers, the Bulls have the upper hand, just certainly not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, QQQ is now extended far above its T-line and is badly in need of rest or pullback. Neither of the others are extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the the center of its mid-range. So, the bottom line is that outside of the QQQ, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, TSLA (+6.86%) and NVDA (+2.08%) are two of the four in the green (and remember those two trade much more stock than any others on average…many times more in fact). Remember, that we do get PPI numbers and Jobless Claims this morning and that has the potential to move markets (although usually not as much as yesterday’s CPI numbers). So, beware of volatility early.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped lower to start the day Tuesday.  SPY gapped down 0.29%, DIA gapped down 0.43%, and QQQ gapped down 0.28%.  All three major index ETFs then saw 30 minutes of follow through to the downside.  However, this was a Bear trap as price reversed and whiplashed higher.  QQQ had recrossed it opening gap by 10:45 a.m., at which time SPY was just crossing up into its gap.  Then after a sideways grind along the opening level, SPY started to rally again at 1:30 p.m. and broke above its prior close at 2:20 p.m.  From there, SPY and QQQ ground sideways until a day-end rally the last 10 minutes took them out on their highs.  Meanwhile, a 75-minute morning rally DIA was slower and did not even cross into its opening gap until 2:25 p.m. and from there ground sideways the rest of the day.  This action gave us large, white-body candles with lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ while DIA printed a gap-down large-handle white Hammer.  DIA crossed back below its T-line (8ema) while SPY printed a new all-time high close, and QQQ printed both a new intraday high and all-time high close.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (+0.69%) was way out front as the only green sector while Financial Services (-1.07%) was by far the worst performing sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.24%, DIA lost 0.34%, and QQQ gained 0.68%.  VXX was just on the green side of flat, closing at a very low 11.11 again and T2122 fell back into the oversold territory, to close at 15.45.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 4.400% and Oil (WTI) was just on the green side of flat at $77.83 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a Bear trap with a significant gap lower and then some follow-through.  However, then we reversed and give-or-take some periods of consolidation, the rest of the day was a bullish rally.  It is worth noting that AAPL (+7.26%) was the major driver behind the performance of QQQ and SPY.  (AAPL also traded more than $35 billion of stock on the day, which is more than three times its average.  Meanwhile, SPY traded less than half of its average volume and QQQ traded about one-third of its average volume.  For its part, DIA traded a little more than half of its average volume.)

The only major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, which raised its forecast to even higher records of US oil production.  The agency now expects the US output to grow by 310k barrels-per-day to 13.24 million bpd. (About a 40k bpd increase in forecast since May’s version.)  For reference, EIA expects global average oil production to be 102.6 million bpd. (So, we produce about 13% of the world’s oil.) At the same time, EIA expects US natural gas production to decrease by 1% in 2024 due to low natural gas prices. Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger-than-expected drawdown of 2.428 million bpd (compared to a forecasted 1.750 million bpd draw and far lower than the prior week’s 4.052 million bpd inventory build. 

After the close, ADSK and CASY both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ORCL missed on both lines.  (However, ORCL rallied on new deals with GOOGL and OpenAI.  CEO Ellison also told the call that he is open to a deal similar to the GOOGL deal with AMZN.)

In stock news, on Tuesday, GM announced its board had approved a new $6 billion stock buyback program. (Later, GM reduced its forecast for 2024 electric vehicle sales from 200k-300k down to 200k-250k.)  As mentioned earlier, AAPL had a huge day on optimism that its “AI” projects announced Monday will drive profits.  However, Elon Musk criticized AAPL both Monday and the Tuesday morning, threatening to ban AAPL devices from his X (Twitter) platform if they integrate OpenAI ChatGPT into its OS.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported SPOT is planning a new, more expensive tier of subscription.  Later, Reuters reported that UBS and CS may complete their merger by July 1 according to multiple company executives.  At the same time, BA reported plane deliveries that less than half of its May 2023 deliveries (BA delivered 24 in May, down from 50 in May 2023).  Later, AFRM announced that its buy-now-pay-later service will be integrated into AAPL’s Apple Pay later this year.  Meanwhile, NTIOF announced it is buying CBWBF for $3.6 billion in what will become one of the largest Canadian regional banks.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that Taiwan-listed chipmaker MediaTek is developing new ARM-based chips which will run MSFT Windows.  This will be a direct response to AAPL using ARM-based chips in their computers the last couple of years.  (It could threaten INTC and AMD, which are the major x86 platform chipmakers for Windows.)  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that Shari Redstone (inheritor of PARA control) has halted negotiations with Skydance Media after months and is now focusing on deals with companies interested in her company National Amusements, which owns 77% of PARA voting stock.  After the close, BA (and NASA) announced a rescheduling of the return of BA’s Starliner space capsule from the Intl. Space Station.  The announcement said reasons for the delay are fixing of faulty Starliner components, weather conditions, and ISS schedule issues (such as spacewalks).  On Monday evening, NASA had posted that another helium leak was found in the Starliner propulsion system.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, ALK lost its appeal of an $160 million trademark dispute with Virgin Group in the UK.  At the same time, LVMUY had its Italian unit placed under court administration over labor exploitation after a probe of how its Chinese-owned subcontractors treated employees.  Later, JNJ agreed to pay a $700 million settlement to resolve lawsuits by 42 states and Washington DC.  (This has no impact on the 61k remaining lawsuits over the same “talc causing cancer” issue, but is a major step forward.)  Later, carmakers are facing 1.5 million lawsuits, totaling $7.6 billion dollars, in the UK for allegedly cheating on diesel emissions tests.  This includes F, VLKAF, and MBGAF companies as named defendants. At the same time, in Mexico, the Mexican government announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is formally under investigation for labor rights violations.  Later, a class action lawsuit was filed against RTX, alleging the company discriminates against job seekers who are older than 40 years old.  The suit was filed by AARP and two law firms.

Meanwhile, four FOX board members were subpoenaed in the company’s $2.7 billion defamation lawsuit filed by Smartmatic Voting Systems.  At the same time, four more states have joined the original 15 states plus the District of Columbia and the US Dept. of Justice in the antitrust lawsuit against AAPL related to the smartphone app market.  At the same time, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) ordered an LNG plant joint venture between BP, SHEL and others to provide customers documents about the mechanical problems that are plaguing the startup of the joint venture LNG plant in Louisiana.  The delays have deprived customers (such as BP, ED, REPYY, and others) of billions of dollars in business because they cannot get the LNG to sell.  Later, US chemical manufacturing industry groups filed suit against the EPA seeking to block the first-ever rule intended to reduce exposure of drinking water to 15,000 PFAS (so-called forever chemicals).  The chemical manufacturers allege that the EPA rule is “arbitrary and beyond the agency’s authority to regulate.”  After the close, Elon Musk ask a CA state court to dismiss his lawsuit against OpenAI and its CEO.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed with six exchanges in the red and six in the green.  Taiwan (+1.18%) and South Korea (+0.84%) led gainers while Hong Kong (-1.31%) and Japan (-0.66%) paced the losses. In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only two of 15 bourses in the red.  The CAC (+0.35%), DAX (+0.53%), and FTSE (+0.58%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start that is modestly on the green side of flat.  (Remember this is ahead of CPI data.)  The DIA implies a +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.16% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.39% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.16% to $78.81 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes May Core CPI and May CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.), May Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Q2 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection (all at 2 p.m.), and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open.  Then, after the close, AVGO and PLAY report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, May PPI, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, KFY, SIG, ADBE, and RH report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, news reports said Tuesday that Hamas responded positively to the US-backed cease-fire proposal.  However, Hamas is seeking some “amendments” to the terms of the deal.  Speculation on the potential impacts of a cease-fire on Red Sea shipping and oil markets began immediately.  Elsewhere, the EU announced new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.  These range from 38.1% for SAIC to 20% for Geely, and 17.4% for BYD.  The announcement said that TSLA (which also has a plant in China) will get an “individually calculated” tariff rate at a later stage.

In mortgage news, the US national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan fell from 7.07% to 7.02% last week. This caused a 16% surge in mortgage applications versus the prior week (and also one year prior).  This included a 28% pop in home refinance applications and a 9% increase in new home purchase applications.

With that background, the Bull appear to be in control early in the premarket. Both the SPY and QQQ opened the early session higher and have traded up a bit from there. This puts both of them at new all-time highs (if the market were to open at this price). For its part, DIA is also higher, but on more indecisive action as it retests its T-line (8ema) from below. So, the Bulls have the upper hand in the short-term but certainly not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, QQQ is the only major index ETF far from its T-line and that is on the edge of being called too stretched. Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back in the top end of its oversold range. The bottom line is that the market has room to run in either direction but the Bulls have more slack to play with here. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green. NVDA (+0.51%), and MSFT (+0.44%) lead the gainers AAPL (-0.39%), fresh off its huge day Tuesday, is the laggard. Remember, this will all change when traders digest the CPI numbers at 8:30 a.m. Don’t be surprised if we see morning volatility, then drift into 2 p.m. and more volatility (even on no change by the Fed) after the FOMC statement as traders start gaming out the July meeting almost immediately from the tea leaves they get today.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Monday, markets gave us a modestly bearish start.  SPY opened down 0.14%, DIA opened 0.14% lower, and QQQ opened down 0.18%. From there, all three major index ETFs slowly meandered modestly bullishly the rest of the day.  (With that said, DIA was much more volatile with a wave lower before really starting is modest rally.)  This action gave us white-bodied candles in all three with SPY that could certainly be seen as Bullish Engulfing signals if you were to squint.  DIA retested its T-line (8ema) with the opening gap, but passed the test closing back above.  SPY and QQQ both closed at new all-time high closes (although neither of them took out Friday’s all-time intraday high).  It is also worth noting that if you draw it right (top across 3/28 and 5/23 candles), you could say SPY is right at the top edge of an ascending wedge.  This all took place on well below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.36%) and then Utilities (+1.01%) well out front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Communication Services (-0.77%) was by far the laggard sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.31%, DIA gained 0.21%, and QQQ gained 0.40%.  VXX was just on the red side of flat, closing at a very low 11.11 and T2122 climbed up out of its oversold territory, to close at 27.01.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields rose to reach 4.467% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.12% to close at $77.89 per barrel.  So, Monday was basically a drifting day, where traders were probably biding time until the CPI and Fed announcements on Wednesday.  We opened lower, following Europe (which was perhaps rattled by the gains of far-right parties across the EU and the snap elections called in France).  From there, prices really just drifted slowly upward the rest of the day.

The only major economic news scheduled for Monday was the New York Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations survey results.  This came in a tick lower than the May reading at 3.2% (compared to May’s 3.3% expectation).  At the same time, the survey found that the three-year inflation expectation remained flat at 2.8%.  However, on a 5-year outlook the survey saw inflation expectations rise to 3% from April’s 2.8% projection.

In stock news, on Monday, VSTO rejected a takeover bid from MNC Capital (the offer was $39.50 per share).  The VSTO board said the MNC offer would not be superior to the deal to sell its sporting goods division to a Czechoslovakian group for $1.96 billion.  (Separately, VSTO also said it had rejected a $2 billion offer from KNIT.)  At the same time, activist investor Elliott Investment Mgmt. announced it had taken a $2 billion position in LUV with intentions of ousting the current CEO and other leadership. Later, MS made analyst news when it lowered AMD to hold while simultaneously starting new coverage of AVGO and saying Broadcom is “the strongest AI play.”  (AMD lost 4.49% while AVGO gained 2.41% on the day.)  At the same time, the UAW announced a new tentative deal had been reached with “Ultium Cells” (a joint venture between GM and Korean giant LG).  Later, ROG signed multi-year content licensing deals with WBD and CMCSA’s NBS Universal unit.  At the same time, Elon Musk, in his capacity as CEO of X, announced he would ban AAPL devices from the service if AAPL integrates OpenAI at an OS level. (This came after AAPL announced that OpenAI’s ChatGPT was coming to its Siri.)  Later, an Israeli financial news website reported that INTC is halting its $25 billion plant expansion in Israel.  After the close, Reuters reported that APOS and KD are in talks to make a joint buyout bid for DXC.  The article said they were targeting $22 to $25 per share for the offer.  (DXC spiked 11.48% on the day, somebody knew something, closing at $18.45/share.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, the US Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal seeking to dismiss a lawsuit against META related to its misleading investors about the Cambridge Analytica data-harvesting scandal.  At the same time, the Supreme Court refused to hear KR’s appeal seeking to block GRUB from using the fork and knife logo, claiming it is too similar to a KR house brand logo.  Meanwhile, the NHTSA announced that STLA is recalling 212k 2022 model SUV and pickup trucks over a software malfunction that may cause the electronic stability control systems to fail.  Later, the CA Attorney General sued the oil major firms (XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, and COP), seeking to force those firms to give up the profits they made while also simultaneously deceiving the public about their contributing to climate change.  (This suit is seeking to be similar to the one that crushed the Tobacco industry decades ago.)  After the close, the full 11-judge panel of the US 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled against UBER (who lost the original case, but won a 3-judge sub-set of the Appeals Court) on their case seeking to challenge a CA law that may force companies to treat drivers as employees rather than independent contractors.  Also after the close, the FDA Advisory Panel voted by 11-0 to recommend that LLY’s Alzheimer drug donanemab to receive full-use approval later this year.  (If approved, it would be the second Alzheimer’s drug approved to serve the 6 million US patients, along with BIIB’s Leqembi.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side with eight of the 12 exchanges in the region below water.  Australia (-1.33%) and Hong Kong (-1.04% were by far the biggest movers, leading the region lower.  In Europe, we see red across the board at midday.  The CAC (-1.09%), DAX (-0.73%), and FTSE (-0.90%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.40% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.35% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 4.439% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $77.61 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open is limited to ASO.  Then, after the close, CASY and ORCL report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, May Core CPI, May CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, May Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Q2 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, May PPI, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, we hear from AVGO and PLAY.  On Thursday, KFY, SIG, ADBE, and RH report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, ECB President Lagarde sought to tamp down expectations after last week’s first rate cut since 2019.  She told a newspaper interview that the Central Bank may wait several meetings between rate cuts, saying that the downward path may be “non-linear.”  Elsewhere, Reuters reported Monday evening that an independent federal monitor has launched an investigation of UAW union President Fain over allegations of retaliation against other union leaders.  (Among the allegations is the claim of former UAW Secretary/Treasurer that she faced retaliation for refusing to authorize certain expenditures for Fain’s office.)

In other news, Bloomberg reported the results of their survey of public records of pharmacy chains.  The survey found that CVS had three times more safety recalls than either WBA or WMT over the past decade.  Among CVS’s incidents were recalling house branded child pain and fever medication for being made with contaminated water, children’s drugs that were made with adult potencies, and baby nasal sprays that were recalled because they were made on machines used to produce pesticides.

With that background, the bears are in control of the premarket at this point. All three major index ETFs opened the early session a bit lower and have followed through with black-body candles up to this point. DIA has recrossed below its T-line (8ema) in the premarket this morning. With that said, again, only the DIA is below its T-line as the other two, broader, index ETFs remain above their own. So, the Bulls have the upper hand in the short-term but certainly not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema) and the T2122 indicator is back in the lower end of its mid-range. The bottom line is that the market has room to run in either direction but the Bulls have just a little more slack to play with here. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the red. AMD (+0.24%) leads the few gainers while their rival INTC (-0.58%) leads the more numerous losers. Don’t be surprised if we drift or vacillate ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and Fed news.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw stocks open modestly lower on stronger-than-expected May Payroll data.  SPY opened down 0.18%, DIA started down 0.10%, and QQQ opened 0.11% lower.  At that point, all three major index ETFs rallied, recrossing that modest gap and getting to highs at 10:50 a.m.  Then all three sold off for 20 minutes part way back to the lows before meandering sideways with a slight bullish trend reaching highs at about 1:25 p.m.  From there, all three had another sharp 20-minute move back lower and then bounced before selling off again the last hour.  This action gave us indecisive, Doji-like candles in all three major index ETFs.  The SPY and QQQ printed white-body, high-wick Doji while the DIA printed a black-body, high-wick Doji.  All three remained above their T-line (8ema) with only DIA retesting.  However, SPY and QQQ also gave us new all-time highs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Basic Materials (-1.92%) way out in front leading the market lower.  At the same time, Financial Services (-0.32%) held up better than the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.12%, DIA lost 0.23%, and QQQ lost 0.09%.  VXX fell 1.24% to close at a very low 11.11 and T2122 dropped into oversold territory, closing at 13.54.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields surged higher to reach 4.434% and Oil (WTI) dropped 0.37% to close at $75.27 per barrel.  So, Friday was a non-committal day that essentially was flat, near the all-time highs in SPY and QQQ. At the same time, DIA continued its begrudging uptrend with its own flat day. On the week, SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained just 0.26%, and QQQ gained 2.72%.

In other market news, Gold fell by the most in two years on Friday, closing down 3.34%.  However, that was nothing compared to Copper which fell 4.94% and Silver which was down 6.69% on the day.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include May Avg. Hourly Earnings (Month-on-Month) came in a tick hotter than expected at +0.4% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and April’s +0.2% value). On a Year-on-Year basis, May Avg. Hourly Earnings were also up to 4.1% (versus the +3.9% forecast and the April +4.0% reading).  At the same time, May Nonfarm Payrolls showed much stronger job growth than predicted at +272k (compared to the +182k forecast and the April +165k number).  On the private side, May Private Nonfarm Payrolls were also stronger than anticipated at +229k (versus a forecast of +170k and the April +158k reading).  Meanwhile, we saw the May Participation Rate fall to 62.5% (compared to the previous value of 62.7%).  This all led to a May Unemployment Rate that ticked higher to 4.0% (versus the forecast and April number of 3.9%).  For context, that breaks an all-time record of 27 straight months with Unemployment under 4.0%.  Despite conspiracy theorists mistaken beliefs, this sure seems to check out since the recent JOLTs data also showed job openings at a 3-year low.  Later, April Consumer Credit came in much lower than predicted at $6.40 billion (compared to a $9.30 billion forecast but far above the March -$1.10 billion value).

In stock news, on Friday, TSLA released a software update for Chinese customers giving them detailed navigation information, including lane-level guidance.  (It was reported that BIDU was the supplier of the detailed map data TSLA used.)  At the same time, Korean giant Samsung Electronics suffered its first ever strike walk-out by employees.  28k employees rallied on the day, but it was nothing but a PR event since it was held on a public holiday in order to not impact the operations.  Later, SAVE said, perhaps ominously, Friday that it is not considering Chapter 11 bankruptcy and is encouraged by its own plan following the JBLU deal being killed.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that WBA had shelved its plans to IPO the Boots portion of its business.  However, WBA is still in talks to sell that Boots unit.  After the close, it was announced that KKR, CRWD, and GDDY will join the S&P 500 before the market open on June 24.  At the same time, RHI, CMA, and ILMN will be dropped by the S&P 500.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA issued a warning to owners of 463k KIA 2020-2024 Telluride SUVs, warning the customers to park outside and away from structures until KIA can complete recall repairs.  (The NHTSA said there are reports of under seat fires and melting engines as well as many reports of smoke.)  At the same time, a UK Court ruled that V and MA must face a set of lawsuits over the fees it charges British retailers.  Later, TSLA filed court documents seeking to pay only a tiny fraction of the legal fees of the lawyers who sued (first in 2018 with the case running until 2023) to reduce CEO Musk’s pay.  Those lawyers won, throwing out Musk’s $56 billion pay package.  The lawyers billed for $5.6 billion but TSLA is fighting the fees, seeking to pay only $13.6 million.  TSLA claims there was no value to the company since Musk has re-submitted his $56 billion pay package and seems to have the votes to get it past by shareholders.  (In other words, we are too stupid to take advantage of the court decision, so we should not need to pay the lawyers who won it.)  At the same time, a federal court ruled GOOGL will pay a paltry $2.3 million (which will be tripled per law) to cover damages and, as a result, won’t have to stand jury trial in its digital advertising antitrust case. Instead, the antitrust trial over GOOGL dominance of the digital ad market will be heard by the judge (not jury) on Sept. 9. 

Meanwhile, a federal judge ruled YELP may sue (for trademark infringement and unfair competition) a business review website that claimed businesses could pay Yelp to get artificially higher star ratings.  Later, after months of lobbying by automakers, the NHTSA said on Friday that it will increase federal truck and SUV fuel economy requirements only to 50.4 mpg (fleet average for each carmaker) for 2031.  This is BARELY above the previous 49mpg that was requirement for 2026.  (The NHTSA original proposal was to hike it to 58 mpg by 2031.)  It should be noted that cars will have to average 38 mpg by 2031, which is a 2% per year increase (not starting until 2027) from the current standard.  At the same time, the FCC requested a change of venue for the case challenging its reinstitution of net neutrality.  (The case was filed by the major telecom companies in Cincinnati, OH with the 6^th Circuit and the FCC has now requested moving the case back to Washington DC.)  After the close, the FDA approved GSK’s treatment for RSV for patients 50-to-59-years in age.  This expands the market which was previously limited to patients 60 and older.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with only three of 12 exchanges holding onto green territory.  Thailand (-1.06%), Shenzhen (-0.90%), and South Korea (-0.79%) led the region lower.  In Europe, the picture is even more bearish with all 15 bourses in the red at midday.  The CAC (-1.76%), on EU election results and PM Macron dissolving Parliament to call for snap elections, DAX (-0.66%), and FTSE (-0.34$) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a start just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, the SPY is implying a -0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.04% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are popping higher to 4.465% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.26% to $75.75 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, May Core CPI, May CPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, May Federal Budget Balance, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Q2 Current Interest Rate Projection, Q2 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q2 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, and Fed Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core PPI, May PPI, Fed Balance Sheet, and we hear from Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, May Import Price Index, May Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, and the Fed Monetary Policy Report are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday ASO, CSAY, and ORCL report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AVGO and PLAY.  On Thursday, KFY, SIG, ADBE, and RH report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, C changed its Fed rate cut forecast on Friday.  Previously, C had expected a first cut in July, but after the May Payrolls Report, C moved that date to the September meeting.  Meanwhile, the Fedwatch tool showed that traders are pricing in only a 49% chance of a September rate cut with November having a 65% probability and December showing an 84.5% chance of a rate cut.  Elsewhere, Federal Reserve data released Friday showed that US Household Wealth hit a record $160 trillion in Q1 2024.  This was a 3.2% (or $3.8 trillion) increase over Q4’s record value.  Most of the gain came from the stock market rally. Separately, CNBC reported that the US created 600,000 new millionaires in 2023, a 7.3% increase in the total to 7.5 million people. (This was using the definition of millionaire as those with $1 million in investible assets, excluding primary residence, collectibles like art, or consumer durables.)

In other news, the Dept. of Energy announced Friday that it has sped up the purchase of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to take advantage of current lower oil prices.  The DoE issued two solicitations to buy 6 million barrels for September – December delivery.  This is a massive money-maker by the Biden administration which sold oil in 2022 for an average of $95 per barrel and is replenishing at an average of $77 per barrel.  (Current prices are well below that, so the new solicitations should lower the average even more.)  This is one of the few times the government ever made money.  Furthermore, it makes perfect sense since the US is the world’s largest oil producer, meaning we have much less reason to have a strategic reserve than when we were importing most of our oil in the 1970s.  Finally, the Port of Baltimore fully reopened on Saturday for the first time since the Francis Scott Key bridge was struck and collapsed, closing the main channels in the process.

With that background, it looks as if the market is tepidly bearish but largely undecided in the premarket. QQQ made the biggest move, gapping down a bit to start the early session but has rallied the most on a white-body candle. Meanwhile, SPY and DIA are printing Doji-type candles not too far below Friday’s close. The DIA has given back its T-line (8ema) at this point, but not by much. With that said, only the DIA is below its T-line as the other two, broader, index ETFs remain above theirs. So, the Bulls have the upper hand in the short-term but not decisively. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of the three are too stretched from their T-line (8ema). However, the T2122 indicator is in oversold territory. The bottom line is that the market has room to run in either direction but the Bulls have a little more slack to play with here. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split. AMD (-2.33%) is the biggest mover of that group. Also, don’t forget that today is NVDA’s first day of trading at the new 10-for-1 split price. (TC2000 still is not reflecting it correctly. It has the correct price, but is indicating a 90% move lower rather than this was a split.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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