50-SMA Archives - Page 72 of 141 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Senate Kicks Budget Can to Christmas

September 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets made a modest gap higher after the previous brutal day. However, this turned into a “Dead Cat” bounce as waves of price action followed the volatility all day. At the end of the day, we went out near the lows, leaving us with indecisive candles with larger upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.15%, DIA gained 0.25%, and QQQ lost 0.16%. The VXX rose to 27.81 and T2122 popped out of the oversold territory at 34.25. 10-year bond yields fell slightly to 1.529% and Oil (WTI) dropped nine-tenths of a percent to $74.62/barrel. Natural Gas plummeted 7.24% on the day (from a 7-year high) after having been down over 8% in the early afternoon.

During the day, Fed Chair Powell told a conference hosted by the ECB that inflation was “frustrating” and that he sees it continuing into next year. He also expressed frustration that not enough people are getting vaccinated to stop the spread of the Covid Delta variant and that is having “important economic policy impacts.” He is scheduled to testify before the House on Thursday.

Early this morning, the Senate reached a deal to avoid a government shutdown. The deal would fund the government through December as well as provide funds for hurricane relief and Afghan refugee resettlement. It seems Democrats were the ones that blinked in these negotiations because the bill does not address the debt ceiling (that now will require a separate bill and fight), which previously had been included in all Democratic proposals. The House still needs to pass this bill, as -is before midnight to avoid the shutdown.

Z released a report saying that the national average rent skyrocketed by 11.5% (year-on-year) in August. States like FL and GA saw much higher 25% average increases over the same time. Another firm (Yardi) reported a “more reasonable” increase of 10.3% in August (again, year-on-year). The Dallas Federal Reserve estimates over the next two years rents will continue to rise at the highest rate in more than 30 years. These increases help underscore the dramatic real estate market price increases but also are likely to lead to dramatic housing problems with wages simply being unable to keep pace.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Indonesia (+2.02%), Australia (+1.88%), and Shenzhen (+1.64%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Malaysia (-0.64%), India (-0.53%), and Hong Kong (-0.36%) were among the losers. In Europe, markets are mostly green at mid-day in modest trading. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (-0.20%), and CAC (+0.06%) are typical of the region. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.44% open, the SPY implying a +0.45% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.51% open at this hour. Natural Gas continues its tear, up another 2+% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and 4 Fed speakers (Chair Powell testifies at tbd, Williams at 10 am, Bostic at 11 am, and Harker at 11:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BBBY, KMX, MKC, PAYX, and HNNMY before the open. Then after the close, JEF reports. The month and Q3 also come to an end today.

As Q3 comes to an end today, beware of rotation as funds window-dress their portfolios prior to reporting. Also, keep in mind that we have 4 Fed speakers again today, including Fed Chair Powell for the third straight day. There is no reason to think the volatility will lesson today as stocks attempt to retest resistance above in the bearish trend.

Remember you don’t have to trade every day. Cash is a perfectly valid position. Nobody has ever consistently predicted reversals. So, don’t think you can either. Consider waiting if you want to be long this market and stay nimble if you trade short as bear moves end faster than bull moves. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. It’s discipline and good trading rules that separate trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MRK, FCEL, XLK, TSLA, NFLX, SPXU, SPY, SDS, LUMN, SQQQ, UVXY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Premarket Bounce and More Fed Speakers

September 29, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down significantly Tuesday and the bears piled on to follow-through into the early afternoon. Then after a short, mid-afternoon rally, we sold off again the last hour to end the day near the lows. This left us with big, ugly black candles in all 3 major indices that printed an Evening Star failing the 50sma in the DIA and a Dreaded-h pattern in the SPY and QQQ. Tech stocks took the worst of the beating with TWTR down 4.47%, GOOG down 3.76%, FB down 3.66%, and MSFT down 3.62%. On the day SPY lost 1.97%, DIA lost 1.63%, and QQQ lost 2.77%. The VXX rose 10% to 27.37 and T2122 fell hard to just inside the oversold territory at 17.25. The 10-year bond yields rose sharply, closing a 1544% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.85% to $74.81/barrel.

During the day, it was reported that the progressive faction of the House Democrats will defy Speaker Pelosi and oppose the $1 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure bill deal unless they get a vote at the same time on the more liberal portions of President Biden’s economic agenda. Meanwhile, in the Senate, Republican members blocked another Democratic attempt to raise the debt ceiling (the second time in two days). This comes after the Treasury Dept. announced the actual date the government will no longer be able to avoid a default on US debt (without a prior debt ceiling increase) is October 18. While many pundits claimed these impasses were the cause of Tuesday’s selloff and even with no deal is in sight, it still seems unlikely the US will default. A temporary shutdown of the government is quite possible, but default really serves no party’s interests, and certainly not the country’s interest, in the long run. However, analysts say that is what the market is fearing most and could be the proximate cause of a deeper pullback.

Interest rates rose last week, with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 3.10% (up from 3.03% the week prior). This led total mortgage applications to fall 1.1% week on week. Interestingly, the rate-sensitive refinance application number was also only 1% lower than the prior week.

In miscellaneous news, last night TSLA CEO Elon Musk told an industry conference that the US Government should avoid regulating crypto. Cryptocurrency markets took heart from this, but it is quite unlikely even a billionaire like Musk has much sway with the Feds. Bloomberg reported this morning that the FDA will approve booster shots of the MRNA vaccine (in the same way it recently approved PFE booster shots). The huge tech names that led the beating are all showing a bounce (dead cat?) in premarket action. TWTR, TSLA, NFLX, MSFT, FB, and AAPL all up over three-quarters of a percent at 7:30 am.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Japan (-2.12%), Taiwan (-1.90%), Shanghai (-1.83%), and Shenzhen (-1.64%) led the region lower. Hong Kong (+0.67%) and Indonesia (+0.81%) bucked the trend. In Europe, markets are strongly in the green so far today. The FTSE (+0.85%), DAX (+0.95%), and CAC (+1.21%) are typical and leading the region higher at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modest gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.46% open, the SPY implying a +0.54% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.65% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down to 1.51% and Oil (WTI) is trading two-thirds of a percent lower in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to August Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and a trio of Fed speakers (Chair Powell at 11:45 am), Bostic at 1 pm, and Williams at 5 pm. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include CTAS, JBL, and WOR before the open. Then after the close, MLHR reports.

After such an ugly Tuesday, traditionally we would see a rebound (at least early) as traders anticipate that the prior day’s candle was an overreaction. This seems to be taking shape in premarkets. However, whether this modest gap-up is a true reversal is a completely different question. Beware massive volatility as the fear factors, whether they be a government shutdown, US debt default (as JPM CEO Dimon started to warn yesterday), the Delta variant, or just markets in need of a correction after such a long time without one all remain in place.

Remember you don’t have to trade every day. Cash is a perfectly valid position. Nobody has ever consistently predicted reversals. So, don’t think you can either. Consider waiting if you want to be long and stay nimble if you trade short as bear moves end faster than bull moves. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. It’s discipline and good trading rules that separate trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MMAT, FLR, WRK, PLUG, TSN, DOG, SPXU, SQQQ, UVXY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Energy Crisis and Powell Testimony Lead

September 28, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down again Monday but rallied again to test the 50sma resistance in all 3 major averages. Unfortunately for bulls, all 3 indices failed that test. This left us with Doji candles in the SPY and QQQ as well as a Shooting Star type candle in the DIA. On the day, SPY lost 0.29%, DIA gained 0.21%, and QQQ lost 0.80%. The VXX rose just a tad to 24.82 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 69.67. 10-year bond yields spiked up to 1.491% and Oil (WTI) rose to $75.40/barrel.

During the day, two members of the FOMC announced their own early retirement. Boston Fed President Rosengren claimed his premature departure was due to a kidney illness, but Dallas Fed President Kaplan came out and acknowledged the trading disclosure issue. Those two were the Fed members recently identified as having owned millions of dollars of stock in companies which the Fed then purchased bonds. These announcements also came a day before Fed Chair Powell testifies before the Senate. In other Fed news, 3 FOMC members said they are ready to pull back on stimulus, but that they don’t feel any pressure from inflation. Fed members Brainard, Williams, and Evans all said they expect to see inflation lessening in 2022, but also feel comfortable removing stimulus now if the economy continues its current trajectory. This is another signal of the likely announcement of tapering of bond buying at the October Fed meeting. However, all 3 also stressed that their desire to begin tapering now in no way signals a change in the interest rate policy.

The global energy crisis continues and has caused Oil to spike as Brent prices soared above $80 on supply concerns. Part of the cause is supply disruptions in the US resulting from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas that shut down production in the Gulf of Mexico and destroyed rig, refinery, and pipeline infrastructure. In addition, in Africa, Nigeria and Angola have struggled to achieve their OPEC allotted production quotas due to mismanagement and underinvestment. In China, the problem is on the demand side as their government has implemented painful electric usage limits in order to meet climate emissions goals. This could be the backdrop for Elon Musk’s recent praise of the Chinese government. Bloomberg reports AAPL phone manufacturing plants are being given special treatment under the new restrictions because AAPL has “played ball” with Chinese officials. It could be that Musk is simply trying to curry special treatment for TSLA’s Chinese plants as well.

Last night F and South Korean firm SK Innovations announced a joint project that includes $11.4 billion in investment to build electric vehicles and batteries. This is the largest investment in production plants in F history. The project calls for 4 plants in the states of KY and TN, which should result in 11,000 new jobs.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red. Australia (-1.47%), South Korea (-1.14%), and Taiwan (-0.76%) led the way lower. Hong Kong (+1.20%), Malaysia (+0.90%), and Shanghai (+0.54%) were the only green in the region. In Europe, markets are also showing red across the board with the lone exception of Russia (+0.44%) who is green on the strength of being a major oil producer. The FTSE (-0.51%), DAX (-1.34%), and CAC (-1.74%) are leading the continent lower as of mid-day. The German fall could be partially due to smaller parties (Greens and FDP) being the coalition “king maker” for the next ruling party after a tight election Sunday. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a significant gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.43% open, the SPY implying a -0.95% open, and the QQQ implying a -1.73% open. This comes as the Dollar has popped higher and 10-year bond yields are soaring to 1.537% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday includes August Trade Balance and August Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am), Fed Chair Powell testifies (10 am), and two other FOMC speakers (Bowman at 1:40 pm and Bostic at 3 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for Tuesday include FERG, INFO, SNX, THO, and UNFI before the open. Then after the close, CALM and MU report.

The week started with indecision and failure at resistance. It appears the bears are trying to follow through this morning. Beware of more volatility, especially in the QQQ names, as traders flee from the tech-led recovery trade. Also, remember we are just days from the month and Q3 end. So, the potential for rotation and window-dressing comes into effect. Lastly, Fed Chair Powell testifies before the Senate today and other Fed speakers have their say in public. These words may well stir markets.

Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Remember that it’s discipline and good trading rules that separate trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Speakers and Congress Lead News

September 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down three to six-tenths of a percent on Friday, following Europe, and reacting negatively to China’s website statements about cryptocurrencies. However, once traders remembered this was nothing new, stocks recovered and then ground sideways until a rally the last two hours of the day. Profit-taking the last 10 minutes pulled us down off the highs. This left us with strong white candles that had small upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.18%, DIA gained 0.10%, and QQQ gained 0.10%. For the week, all of Monday’s ugly gap down has been recovered. The VXX ended the day at 24.57 and T2122 fell back to 59.09 (mid-range). 10-year bond yields continued their climb, reflecting the Fed news that bond purchases will soon begin to be tapered. Finally, Oil (WTI) rose another percent to $73.98/barrel.

After weekend committee actions Saturday, this promises to be a big week on several fronts related to US Government domestic spending. House Speaker Pelosi says she expects the $1 trillion bipartisan Infrastructure bill to pass this week (possibly as soon as today). The $3.5 trillion Budget Reconciliation bill is also headed for debate and a vote in the House. Whether it passes (avoiding a government shutdown on Friday) is entirely in Democratic hands since the Speaker and Senate Majority Leader have gone the one-party route. An increase in the debt ceiling (which would avoid a default on US debt sometime in early October) is also coupled to the reconciliation bill. As of Sunday, Pelosi said it was self-evident that the size of the bill will drop to appease moderate Democrats.

Over the weekend, the UK suffered widespread fuel shortages. Among the fuel outages was BP, who said “more than 30% of its 1,200 stations have run out of fuel” as of Sunday. RDS.A and XOM are both reported similar situations. This “out of fuel” situation resulted from a large-scale driver shortage among the major fuel retailers, which led to panic buying among the public across the country. On Saturday, the UK government issued 5,000 work visas to allow drivers to come in from Europe. However, the main UK trucking industry group claims the country is in desperate need of 20 times that number of drivers.

In an interesting twist in the cryptocurrency markets, following Beijing’s Central Bank declaration of all crypto transactions being illegal, Huobi and Binance (two of the largest crypto exchanges) have fallen in line with the declaration. Neither will accept new account registrations from Chinese mobile phone numbers and both plan to close existing Chinese-owned accounts in a phased manner over Q4. It is unclear, exactly why these non-Chinese companies would follow Chinese rules. However, this sets the precedent that would effectively end the crypto ideal of a currency not regulated and controlled by governments.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on generally modest moves with an outlier to the upside in Singapore (+1.27%). Japan (-0.03%), Hong Kong (+0.07%), and Shenzhen (-0.09%) were flat with Shanghai (-0.84%) down and Taiwan (+0.31%) higher. In Europe, markets are also mixed but lean to the green side following German elections on Sunday (apparently shifting slightly to the left). The FTSE (unchanged), DAX (+0.33%), and CAC (+0.24%) are typical (with the outlier of Denmark (-1.35%) at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed open that leans to the red side. The DIA is implying a +0.17% open, the SPY implying a -0.10% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.49% open at this hour. The Dollar is up and 10-year bond yields have jumped to 1.489% with Oil (WTI) topping $75/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to August Durable Good Orders (8:30 am) and 2 more Fed speakers (Williams at both 9 am and noon, and Brainard at 12:15 pm). There are no earnings reports scheduled for before the open. However, after the close CNXC reports.

As we start the last week (four days) of the month and Q3, stocks are looking to continue the most recent rally, which followed last week’s big Monday Evergrande scare. Beware of more volatility and the potential for rotation this week as window-dressing comes into effect. We also have many Fed speakers this week, including Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony. In early Monday stock news, GOOG announced it will slash the commissions it charges on its cloud marketplace from 20% to 3%. This may be a response to the recent AAPL App Store court ruling.

Manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Remember that it’s discipline and good trading rules that separate trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers. Finally, it is Friday, so consider how you want your account sitting Monday morning, and don’t forget to pay yourself.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Budget-Debt Limit Fight and China Crypto Statement

September 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher at the open Thursday and then followed through strongly the first half-hour of the day. Then we saw a very slow, steady rally into 2 pm before doing a very slow, steady selloff into the close. This left us with strong, white, gap-up candles that left an upper wick in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 1.21%, DIA gained 1.48%, and QQQ gained 0.92%. The VXX fell over 6% to 25.37 and T2122 rose to just outside the overbought territory at 76.21. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.427% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.4% to $73.24 even though the Dollar fell on the day.

During the day, the White House began alerting federal agencies to prepare for a government shutdown next Thursday night. Democrats are scrambling to move ahead with a bill that links the budget (government shutdown) with increasing the debt ceiling (the next crisis). Bloomberg reports that House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer are now pointing to a showdown vote on Saturday. If the vote fails, we can expect more machinations next week and a probable shutdown next Friday. To this point, these issues have been ignored by markets, but with the weekend news cycle ahead, Fed meeting behind, and events drawing nearer, today may be a new story.

After the close, the CDC endorsed the use of PFE booster shots for older and at-risk patients. TRIP reported a missed on both lines last evening. Meanwhile, NKE reported a miss on revenue, but COST managed a beat on both lines. NKE is down 5% in premarket even as TRIP is down half of a percent and COST is up six-tenths of a percent this morning.

Overnight, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies fell by more than 5%. Ethereum, the second-largest crypto fell more than 8%. The moves come after China’s Central Bank posted a Q&A on its website that said all crypto-related activities are illegal and that there would be a harsh crackdown on that entire market. This is not China’s first attack on the alternate currencies, but adding to the earlier moves against crypto mining along with the country’s trials of their own digital currency last year, some analysts believe this is the start of their move to force the use of only government-transparent digital currencies. This is a move likely to be followed by all major powers as governments do not want to give up control of and visibility to at least as much of all transactions as they have now. In other foreign political news, polls say Germany is poised to see a new ruling party after elections on Sunday. (The current CDU has been in power since 2005.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Japan (+2.06%) and Taiwan (+1.07%) stood out on the upside while Hong Kong (-1.30%) and Shanghai (-0.81%) stood out to the downside. In Europe, stocks are red across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.20%), DAX (-0.72%), and CAC (-0.94%) are representative. However, the much smaller exchanges are feeling the hit much harder. Greece (-2.28%), Norway (-1.89%), and Finland (-1.56%) lead the pain parade in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap-down at the bell. The DIA is implying a -0.38% open, the SPY implying a -0.50% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.67% open at this hour. The Dollar is rebounding this morning as 10-year bond yields are at 1.417% and Oil (WTI) is down a third of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to August New Home Sales (10 am) and a trio of Fed speakers (Chairman Powell, Bowman, and Clarida all at 10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CCL before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

A volatile week that started with a sizeable Evergrande gap-down and has proceeded with a whipsaw-filled recovery of that gap is now about to wind down. With more Fed speakers seeking to soothe markets on tap for today, but the prospect of a showdown vote over a government shutdown and debt ceiling coming this weekend…do not be surprised if we see a Mr. Market be manic again today. The short-term trend is now bullish, but we have yet to take out the downtrend that goes back to the beginning of the month, at least in the SPY and QQQ. So, the bulls still have serious work ahead if they want to overcome the pullback’s technical damage.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Traders Digest Fed as Bulls Try to Rally

September 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped four to six-tenths of a percent higher Wednesday as fears over the Chinese Evergrande debt crisis faded. The bulls followed though all morning and then volatility set in during the afternoon after the Fed announcement and press conference. This left us with gap-up indecisive Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY closed up 0.98%, DIA gained 0.99%, and QQQ gained 0.93%. The VXX fell over 6% to 27.06 and T2122 rose a bit but remains in the mid-range at 68.70. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.307% and Oil (WTI) gained 2% to $71.95/barrel.

The FOMC held rates near zero as expected Wednesday afternoon. Fed Chair Powell also said that the tapering of asset buying will come soon, which most analysts expect to mean the taper will start in November following an October announcement. During questions, Powell implied the taper (any purchases) would come to an end in mid-2022. The Fed now forecasts 5.9% GDP growth for the year (down from a 7% forecast in June) and 3.8% in 2022 (versus the June 3.3% estimate). They expect inflation of 3.7% for the year (versus 3% previous estimate) and 2.3% for 2022 (compared to the June estimate of 2.1%). Powell also told reporters that the Fed is considering “whether to issue” their own cryptocurrency (and perhaps in a more telling follow-up answer “in what form that may be”).

After the close, FB announced its Chief Technology Officer is stepping down. In other evening news, Auto Industry consulting firm AlixPartners has raised its forecast of lost vehicle sales due to the global chip shortage. The firm now estimates 7.7 million units of lost production for 2021 (up from 3.9 million in their May forecast), which would amount to $210 billion in lost revenue for the industry. This will primarily be felt by US giants GM, F, and FCAU (Fiat, Chrysler, Dodge, and Jeep), because the Japanese auto industry had a normal practice of holding a year’s worth of supply inventory in their supply chain. Now that the inventory has been used up, Japanese auto firms are hurting as well, but they postponed their pain far longer than US automakers.

The FDC is set to vote on PFE booster shots for “older and at-risk patients” today. In the meantime, Covid-19 surpassed the 1918 Spanish Flu as the deadliest pandemic in US history on Monday. As of yesterday, the US has seen 43.4 million total cases and 699,748 total deaths in the country. Meanwhile, the averages 130,121 new cases and 1,678 new deaths per day across America. In related news, yesterday the President announced the US will buy another 500 million doses of the PFE vaccine to donate to poorer nations, raising the total US donation commitment to 1.1 billion doses.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly higher as China pumped $17 billion of liquidity into their banking system and told local governments to “prepare for a storm and be ready to step-in (if needed) at the last minute” to prevent spill-over events from the Evergrande defaults. Japan (-0.67%) and South Korea (-0.41%) were the only red in the region today. India (+1.57%), Hong Kong (+1.19%), and Australia (+1.00%) were the leaders to the upside. In Europe, markets are green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.05%) is the laggard after British PM Johnson failed to get the trade deal he had been promising prior to and shortly after Brexit. However, the DAX (+0.76%) and CAC (+0.85%) are typical of the region, even though some of the smaller exchanges are up almost 1.5% in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.47% open, the SPY implying a +0.52% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.54% open. 10-year bond yields are flat with Oil down three-quarters of a percent even as the Dollar is down sharply in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims (8:30 am), Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am). The major earnings scheduled for the day include CAN, DRI, and RAD before the open. Then after the close, AIR, COST, NKE, and TCOM report.

As markets digest (second-guess) the Fed results and afternoon reaction and fear over the Chinese debt default from Evergrande fades, US stocks are looking to rally at the open again. The question is whether the overhead resistance created on the recent pullback will hold or if the bulls will have their way. Either way, volatility remains elevated, the short-term trend remains bearish, and the next news story will be the success or failure of both the US Debt Ceiling raise and passing a budget to allow continuing government operations after September. It now appears any bipartisan efforts have failed, which leaves open the question of whether Democrats can come together enough to ram-through one-party solutions to those problems.

Remember, the trend is your friend until it ends. Right now, that trend remains bearish with a lot of volatility. So, manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Discipline and good trading rules are what separates trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PLUG, FCEL, BB, NET, PLTR. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Evergrande Fear Fades As We Wait on Fed

September 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped about six-tenths of a percent higher at the open Tuesday as markets tried to recover from the ugly Monday session. However, volatility continued to reign as prices swung in waves all day. Unfortunately for bulls, the last two major waves of the day were to the downside. This left us with black-body candles with upper wicks that went out on or near the lows in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 0.10%, DIA lost 0.09%, and QQQ gained 0.12%. The VXX fell to 28.70 and T2122 popped back out of the oversold territory to 28.37. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.323% and Oil (WTI) rose slightly to $70.51/barrel.

After the close, a US government agency, headed by Attorney General Garland, reported it will be “reviewing” the proposed ZM acquisition of FIVN (announced in July). In the announcement, the agency pointed to foreign participation (ZM has R&D operations in China and FIVN has operations in Russia).

Elsewhere after hours, FDX shares fell as the company missed on earnings and cut its Q4 profit forecast as cost increases are expected to outpace their recently announced price increase. In addition, DIS shares fell hard when CEO Chapek told a GS event that his company believes the Delta variant will cause Q4 subscription growth to come in below previous estimates. On the other side, SFIX shares jumped after the company unexpectedly reported a profit while beating on both lines. ADBE also rose after beating on both lines.

Following very strong Housing starts data yesterday, this morning’s weekly mortgage demand spiked to the highest level since April. Analysts say this points to strong home sales for September. The average 30-year fixed, conforming loan rate remains at 3.03%. However, new purchase loan applications rose 2%, but refinance applications climbed 7% week-on-week. While mortgage demand remains below the same week a year ago, the gap is narrowing.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly modestly lower. An IMF spokesman said they do not expect the Evergrande crisis to be a “Chinese Lehman Brothers moment.” She said the differences include the company owning physical assets (properties) and the Chinese government has much stronger controls over their financial markets and is in a better fiscal position to simply take ownership of the debt and assets if needed than the US/West did in 2008. Taiwan (-2.03%) was the outlier because after a drop at the open, Shanghai (+0.40%) recovered fully and both Shenzhen (-0.57%) and Japan (-0.67%) made significant comebacks. In Europe, markets are up significantly at mid-day, bouncing as they have seen a lack of panic in Chinese markets. The FTSE (+1.15%), DAX (+0.55%), and CAC (+1.11%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to another up open. The DIA is implying a +0.58% open, the SPY implying a +0.51% open, and QQQ implying a +0.30% open.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes August Existing Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and FOMC statement (all at 2 pm), and the Fed Chair presser (2:30 pm). The major earnings scheduled for the day include GIS before the open. Then after the close, FUL, KBH, and SCS report.

With the rest of the world rebounding as the Evergrande debt crisis in China did not look so scary today, US markets are likely to wait and see what the Fed does/says before making big bets. The ugly day Monday and volatility then and Tuesday should give us pause about any further pullback or reversal into rally mode. We have resistance overhead and some support below. So, consider how much confirmation you want before blindly chasing an intraday trend.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day. Activity does not equal progress. And when you do trade, the Trend is your friend. Right now, that trend remains bearish with a lot of volatility. So, manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Discipline and good trading rules are what separates trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Look to Rebound From Evergrande

September 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. So, China caught a virus and the US got sick. Ba-dum-dum. In this case, China’s virus is the Evergrande fund’s $300 billion loan default, and “the US” refers to US markets. At any rate, US markets started the week with a big gap down and then put in a wide-ranging, indecisive Spinning Top candle day in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.66%, DIA lost 1.80%, and QQQ lost 2.17%. That made Monday the worst day since May. However, for context, it’s important to remember that we are still just 4-6% off the all-time high in the various indices. The VXX rose almost 11% to 29.74 and T2122 dropped deep into the oversold territory at 3.54. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.311% and Oil (WTI) dropped 1.56% to $70.85/barrel.

Afterhours, RDS.A announced a deal to sell the entirety of its Permian Basin assets (operations and drilling rights) to COP. The deal was for $9.5 billion and includes current production of 175,000 barrels per day. This deal ends Shell’s US onshore production operations, but RDS.A will continue to operate their production offshore from Texas.

On Monday, Covid-19 surpassed the 1918 Spanish Flu as the deadliest pandemic in US history. There have been 43.1 million total cases and 694,619 total deaths in the country. Meanwhile, the averages 133,979 new cases and 1,623 new deaths per day across America. In related news, this morning JNJ (whose top vaccine selling point was a single dose) says that the vaccine is 94% effective when a booster dose is given two months after the original dose.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but mostly green. Japan (-2.17%) was a huge e outlier as fear from the Evergrande debt crisis impacting Japanese firms gripped the Nikkei. However, the region’s few other losses were very minor. Meanwhile, India (+0.95%), Thailand (+0.74%), Shenzhen (+0.71%), and Singapore (+0.71%) led the gainers. In Europe, we see green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.14%), DAX (+1.53%), and CAC (+1.37%) are typical as the continent rebounds from the initial Evergrande shock. As of 7:45 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the bell. The DIA is implying a +0.83% open, the SPY implying a +0.77% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.75% open. 10-year bond yields and Oil are also rebounding in early trade as the Dollar is just on the red side of flat so far this morning.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday are August Building Permits, Q2 Current Accounts, and August Housing Starts (all at 8:30 am). The major earnings scheduled for the day include AZO and CBRL before the open. Then after the close, ADBE, FDX, and SFIX report.

Markets are trying to rebound after the ugly Monday session. However, a lot of technical damage was done and the whipsaw is in effect both intraday and interday. Be careful not to get caught in that whiplash. Also, with the Fed Meeting starting today, it would not be surprising for markets to start drifting until the FOMC shows its next card Wednesday afternoon. So, be ready for a dead drift sideways if it comes.

Keep in mind that you don’t have to trade every day. And when you do trade, the Trend is your friend. Right now, that trend is bearish. So, manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Discipline and good trading rules are what separates trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Stuck Between Support and Resistance

September 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Thursday, August Retail Sales came in much, much hotter than expected (+0.7% vs. -0.8% expected) and Jobless Claims came in slightly higher than expected (332k vs 330k) in the first week since extended unemployment expired. As a result, large caps opened flat while the QQQ gapped down about three-tenths of a percent. At that point, all 3 sold off for half an hour before starting a slow rally that lasted into the last hour. However, they then backed off the highs a bit. This left us with indecisive Doji or Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices that continue to have trouble breaking through the T-line resistance. On the day, SPY lost 0.17%, DIA lost 0.18%, and QQQ gained 0.07%. The VXX rose slightly to 25.15 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 48.07. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.338% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $72.60 despite a spike in the Dollar (up three-tenths of a percent against other major currencies).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side. New Zealand (+1.18%) and Hong Kong (+1.03%) were the standout movers to the upside and Australia (-0.76%) was by far the biggest loser on the day. In Europe, markets are mixed, but mostly lower on modest moves at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.12%), DAX (-0.26%), and CAC (-0.17%) are typical for the continent in early afternoon trade. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.18% open, the SPY implying a -0.25% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.28% open at this hour. The Dollar is also down a bit with 10-year bond yields up to 1.343% and Oil down half of a percent in early trading.

The only major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10 am. There are no major earnings scheduled for the day.

This afternoon, the FDA Vaccine Advisory panel is meeting to debate and vote on whether to recommend PFE and MRNA booster shots for the general public. There seems to be a debate amongst the panel on whether there is enough scientific evidence that the booster provides enough additional protection to outweigh the use of all production capacity and vaccine doses for initial vaccinations. Of course, this has to be weighed against the hesitancy and lack of compliance among the remaining unvaccinated. Either way, the panel votes, PFE and MRNA (and later JNJ) are all likely to be unaffected. Their vaccine capacity will be used somewhere at roughly the same profit margin. However, future case surge numbers and economic impacts may be influenced by the decision

Markets have seemed to consolidate this week, even with intraday volatility with the major indices stuck between resistance overhead and support below. However, the short-term bearish trend remains in place. It appears the fear of reduced economic growth (nationally and globally) remains the dominant driver in the market at the moment. This is interesting since BAC reports that money is piling into stocks at the fastest pace in over a year. BAC said that over $62 billion came out of money-market funds in the first 3 days of this week, with $51 billion of that going into stocks and most of the remainder going into bonds. With all this said, all eyes are looking ahead to the Fed meeting next week for the next clue. So, be careful making bets today.

Remember this is Friday. So, prepare yourself for the weekend news cycle and the likelihood of doldrums heading into the Fed meeting next week. Keep in mind that you don’t have to trade every day. And when you do trade, the Trend is your friend. Manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Discipline and good trading rules are what separates trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Last Major Economic Data Ahead of Fed

September 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Wednesday and then sold off briefly before starting a slow rally that lasted all day long. The major indices are all testing their T-line (8ema) above as of day end. This left us with Bullish Harami candles that closed near their highs in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.83%, DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.74%. The VXX fell almost 4% to 25.43 and T2122 rose into the mid-range at 65.42. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.304% and Oil (WTI) gained over 3% to $72.64/barrel as oil inventories came in tighter than expected (Gulf of Mexico production still only at 60% of pre-hurricane Ida levels) and the Dollar fell against other major currencies.

Tax hikes to pay for the Democratic domestic agenda were passed out of the House Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday. The current version would raise $2.9 trillion, primarily by increasing the top corporate tax rate to 26.5% and imposing a 3% surcharge (added tax) on individuals earning more than $5 million per year.

Last night, Elon Musk’s SpaceX launched an all-civilian rocket into actual orbit of the earth. (360 miles, many times higher than the sub-orbital flights of the SPCE and Blue Origin flights. The consensus is that this accomplishment is exponentially more difficult than the flights accomplished by the other two companies.) There is speculation that SpaceX will be taken public via IPO in the next year.

Yesterday the FDA refused to take a stance on the PFS booster shot. The agency cited a lack of “verified” data. MRNA also released data on “breakthrough” cases that the company said support the need for booster shots. In general virus news, the total number of cases has risen to 42,479,780 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 685,023. Meanwhile, the averages have seemed to are plateau at 152,891 new cases and 1,609 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red again, led by Chinese stocks. Shenzhen (-1.91%), Hong Kong (-1.46%), and Shanghai (-1.34%) led the region lower. However, India (+0.63%) and Australia (+0.58%) were the clear leaders on the green side as Australian unemployment came in lower than expected. In Europe however, markets are mostly on the green side at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.48%), DAX (+0.54%), and CAC (+1.09%) are typical of the region with only Russia (-0.36%) and Portugal (-0.45%) on the red side of the ledger in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open again. The DIA is implying a +0.01% open, the SPY implying a -0.07% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.16% open at this hour. The Dollar and 10-year bond yields are up and Oil (along with other commodities) down in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes August Retail Sales, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Weekly Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), and July Business Inventories (10 am). Notably, these are the last major economic data points coming ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. There are no major earnings scheduled for the day.

The bulls pushed back against the recent downtrend yesterday. However, the large-caps are still fighting with the T-line and 17-ema (as well as recent levels) as resistance above. While the QQQ is just back up above the two moving averages, it too continues to have resistance overhead. The point is that while the bulls woke up Wednesday, none of the major indices have broken the downtrend yet. With that backdrop, the morning news, especially Jobless Claims, are likely to drive early action today.

Remember you don’t have to trade every day and that the Trend is your friend. Manage your existing trades before you chase any new ones. Focus on the process and on managing the things you can control. Don’t worry about the things you can’t control. Discipline and good trading rules are what separates trading success from failure over the long run. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. A good trader refuses to let greed turn their winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: IGT, CTRM, CSCO, PLAN, F, PLTR, FSM, INTC, DVN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching