More Stimulus?

Stimulus

Friday evening, the House passed a 3-trillion dollar stimulus bill, but it's unlikely to pass the Senate and if it should the President has vowed to veto.  Jerome Powell sees the possibility that the US GDP could shrink by as much as 30% in comments made this weekend.  However, as states begin to reopen the US Futures only see bullishness this morning even as the Covid-19 death toll tops 90,000 with more than 1000 American dying almost every day of the last 2-weeks.

Asian markets closed in the green overnight even as Japan slips into recession.  European markets are bullish this morning as Euro-zone continues to lift lock-down restrictions.  US Futures point to a gap up of nearly 400-points ahead of earnings and a light day of economic news. Let's party with the bulls but keep a close eye on the overhead resistance of this wide-range consolidation on the DIA, SPY, and IWM.

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar

On the Monday earnings calendar, we have 120 companies reporting their quarterly results.  Notable reports include BIDU, APLE, BILI, IQ, SFTBY, TRVG.

Technically Speaking

US Futures are surging this morning as investors weighed comment by Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting the GDP could shrink more than 30%.  He said, struggling retail will continue to struggle even as the country reopens, suggesting that businesses will have to deal with sales volumes 25 to 50 percent of normal.  Rather grim statements, but the bulls don't seem to care, choosing instead to rally hard in the pre-market action.  Apple has plans on reopening 25 stores this week, requiring mandatory masks and temperature checks.  Several states are opening health clubs and restaurants with new social distancing requirements.  New US rules requiring special licensing to sell chips to Huawei will be a big blow to the Chinese 5G tech giant and may also stir trade tensions between the US and China.  Friday evening, the US House passed a 3 Trillion dollar stimulus package that would send another $1200 to American taxpayers.  However, the package has little chance of passage I the Senate, and the President has vowed to veto the bill should it reach his desk. 

As the county reopens, only 3% of the population has been tested, with 1.4 million cases recorded thus far.  More than 1000 Americans have died from Covid-19 almost every day this past week, as the death toll tops 90,000.  To say the reopening will be challenging my be the understatement of the year.  Last week's hold of the 50-day moving averages is a technically positive signal.  However, traders should also note that we remain in a large consolidation range in the DIA, SPY, and IWM.  At the end of the last week, the absolute breadth of the overall market continues in a downtrend as the big-4 does most of the heavy lifting.  With the futures pointing to a considerable gap up open this morning, keep an eye on overhead resistance levels as the T2122 indicator is likely to reach an overextended condition.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

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