Rick’s Trading Blog: September 25, 2026
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Trade Recap & Portfolio Update
Yesterday was another solid session for managing risk and ringing the register into strength:
- $QQQ Puts: Closed for a +17% gain
- $GDX Short: Closed for a +7% gain
- $IWM Puts: Closed for a +10% gain
- $BA: Closed at breakeven
New Entries:
We established new positions in $TEM, $TEVA, and $ERO.
Current Open Holds:
We remain in $NOK, $WMT, $ANF, $SKHY, and a runner in $GDX. These are currently trading slightly in the red, but stops and trade plans remain fully intact.
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Market Overview & Macro Backdrop
Good morning, traders!
- Economic Docket: Jobless claims and New Home Sales hit the tape today.
- Rates & Consumer: Treasury yields continue their climb, keeping pressure on consumer sentiment as sticky inflation remains front of mind.
- The Dollar ($UUP): The greenback pushes higher, though it is looking technically stretched and well into overbought territory.
- Energy: Brent crude sits near $98.90 while WTI trades around $92.90 (as of 6:45 AM ET). The silver lining for equity bulls: both remain capped under the key psychological $100 mark for now.
Key Index & Sector Breakdown
- $SPY: Price action over the last five sessions has been constructive—a solid leg up followed by a controlled, gentle pullback. In pre-market trade, SPY sits slightly green above the T-Line (8 EMA). Our technical stack is healthy: the T-Line is above the Trendicator, and the Trendicator is holding above the 50-day SMA. Overhead, the 50% retracement level remains the must-clear hurdle for bulls to spark a sustained breakout.
- $RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight): RSP tells a starkly different story. It remains mired in a downtrend, trading below the T-Line with the T-Line pinned below the Trendicator. This stark divergence highlights just how narrow market breadth remains—a handful of mega-caps are masking broader weakness underneath the surface.
- $QQQ: Tech continues to do the heavy lifting. Price is leading the charge above the T-Line, which in turn holds firmly above the Trendicator.
- $QQQE (Nasdaq 100 Equal Weight): Constructive development here. QQQE recently reclaimed its 50-day SMA and has pulled back to test that moving average as new support. We want to see buyers step in here to pull the T-Line and Trendicator up through the 50 SMA, completing the bullish stacked alignment.
- The Magnificent Seven: The mega-cap complex has trended cleanly for two months and remains the bedrock of this rally. Any setup closing above the T-Line stays on our bullish watch list. Keep risk managed, however: if this group begins to roll over, the broader market has very little safety net underneath.
- $SMH (Semiconductors): Semiconductors have cleared their downtrend line and reclaimed the 50 SMA. After a brief retest, pre-market action shows a gap to the upside. For now, the momentum here is decisively bullish.
- $IYT (Transports): Classic divergence and persistent weakness. Price has fallen below the 200-day SMA, the T-Line, and the Trendicator. Transports are flashing a clear warning signal against broad-market participation.
Hit and Run Candlesticks Game Plan
This is a market of extremes: a narrow pocket of high-beta names driving upside momentum, a parallel group of weak stocks setting up on the short side, and a messy, choppy middle.
- Protect Capital First: Keep stops non-negotiable. Never let an acceptable $200 drawdown balloon into a damaging $500 loss.
- Trim Into Strength: Don’t get greedy into extended pushes—lock in gains into strong bids.
- Stick to Flagship Setups: Focus strictly on high-probability trending names showing clear T-Line alignment.
Manage risk, stay nimble, and let me know if you have questions on specific charts in the room today!
Trade well and have a great day,
Rick
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Current Portfolio Status: SPCX, SKHY, WMT, TEM, TEVA, BB, ERO, ANF,
Recently closed; taking the Road to Wealth Account to 500K from $4000
EAT 34% profit, SN 14% profit, MU 11.5% profit, NFLX 14.5% profit, NFLX 11.5% profit, PLTR $734.00 profit, NVO, $1114.00 gain, QQQ $450.00 gain, KLAR 25% gain, HIMS 25% gaim, HOOD 45% gain, INTC 35.4% gain, 1/2 INTC 22% gain, Made 2 SPY day trades 5 goals put away, SPY 21% gain, ALKS for 2 goals, IREN 26%, FIG 80% gain, FIG 80% gain, PLTR 53% gain, PTIR, 61% gain, SMCI 50% gain, IREN 44% gain, 1/2 SMCI 15% Gain, FIG 29% Gain, GEO 62% gain, KO 13% gain, NVDA 44% gain, AAPL 22% gain, TSLL 40% gain, CRML 27% gain, INTC 32% gain, NOK 58%, 2/3 CRML 27% gain, WMT 35% GAIN, IREN 23% gain, OKLO 32% gain, PTON 4% gain, Z 22% gain AAPL 50% gain, SOFI 50% gain, OKLO 40% gain, BABA 44% gain, HIMS 46.5% gain, ORCL 20.5%, 1/2 SOFI 17.5%, U 22% gain, ORCL 34.5% gain, MRVL 30% Gain, ARM 42% gain, Closed 1/2 NFLX 40% gain, 1/2 NOK 19.5% gain, NOK 28% gain, ACHC 12% gain
Stocks of Interest:
TEAM, PAYC, NOW, VEEV, GENI, U, FIG, UEC, COTY, CCC, SNPS, KTOS, DDOG, GOOG, ADBE, PGY, IBM, QBTS, GOOGL, GEN, EH, CCJ, PL, RCAT, TTAN, UUUU, GLW, BA, JOBY, RGTI, BWXT, Z, VOYG, LUNR, LHX, RDW, PYPL, ONDS, SMR, OKLO, CRML, IONQ, UFO, ULTA, CHTR, AVAV, SOFI, ARKX, USAR, NU, SO, LDOS, ASTS, RKLB, AXP, FLY, MP, D, NOC, RTX, CHWY, QCOM, DUK, SPCX, CEG, LMT, INTC, AMD, EPAM, MU
✅Space Stocks: RKLB, ASTS, SATS, PL, FLY, LUNR, RDW, VOYG, SPCX
✅Quantum Stocks: IBM, QBTS, RGTI, IONQ
✅Rare Earth Stocks: MP, USAR, CRML, UUUU
✅Finteck: V, MA, PYPL, AXP, STRIP, SOFI, NU, PGY
✅Nuclear Stocks: CCJ, CEG, DUK, SMR, SO, UEC, OKLO, D, BWXT
✅Drone Stock: KTOS, AVAV, RCAT, NOC, JOBY, EH, ONDS
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