Thursday started with a small Bull trap, that once washed out led to a strong gain.  SPY gapped up 0.49%, DIA gapped up 0.34%, and QQQ gapped up 0.58%.  However, all three major index ETFs immediately sold off, recrossing their gaps in less than 10 minutes.  DIA hit its low of the day at 9:40 a.m., while SPY and QQQ hit their low at 10:30 a.m. From there all three rallied to the highs at about 1:35 p.m. before wobbling sideways the rest of the day.  (DIA definitely had a slight bearish trend to its late-day meander to the side.)  This action gave us divergent, but all indecisive candles across the three major index ETFs.  SPY printed a gap-up, long-legged Doji that crossed above, retested from above, and passed the test of its T-line.  QQQ printed a similar candle, but its version was a gap-up, black-bodied long, lower-wick Spinning Top. It also gapped above, retested from above, and passed the test of its T-line.  Finally, the DIA printed a gap-up, large-body, white-body Spinning Top that gapped up to its 8ema, retested that T-line and closed above that average.  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY, average volume in the QQQ, and very heavy volume in the DIA.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the green as Industrials (+1.40%) and Utilities (+1.38%) led the pack higher. On the other side, Communication Services (+0.51%) and Consumer Cyclicals (+0.52%) were the laggards.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.54%, DIA gained 1.07%, and QQQ gained 0.36%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 47.65 and T2122 jumped up into its overbought territory to close at 88.38.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields rose again to 4.428% while Oil (WTI) popped 2.14% to close at $70.21 per barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit better than expected at 213k (compared to a forecast of 220k and a prior week reading of 219k).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were considerably higher than expected at 1,908k (versus a forecast of 1,870k and last week’s value of 1,872k).  At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was worse that anticipated at -5.5 (compared to the +7.4 forecast and the October +10.3 number).  On the jobs side, the Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was up at 8.6 (versus the October reading of -2.2).  Later, October Existing Home Sales were slightly better than predicted at 3.96 million (compared to a 3.95 million forecast and the Sept. 3.83 million value).  At the same time, the US Leading Economic Indicator Index was down a tick to -0.4% (versus a forecast and previous reading, which were both -0.3%).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a reduction of $43 billion for the week to $6.924 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterated his support for more rate cuts.  However, he also indicated that he is open to lowing the pace of cuts.  Goolsbee said, “My view is that the long arc over the last year and a half, inflation is way down and on its way to 2 percent. Labor markets have cooled to something close to stable full employment.” He went on to say, “interest rates should be a fair bit lower than where they are today.” However, he continued by saying that “(given uncertainties such as what the Trump Administration ends up doing,) it may make sense to slow the pace of rate cuts as we get close (to the terminal rate).”

After the close, CPRT, GAP, INTU, and NTAP reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ROST and UGI both missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with the clear exception of China.  India (+2.39%), New Zealand (+2.17%) and Taiwan (+1.55%) paced the nine gainers.  On the other side, Shenzhen (-3.52%), Shanghai (-3.06%), and Hong Kong (-1.89%) were the only losers in that region.  Meanwhile, in Europe, 12 of the 14 bourses are in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.1%), DAX (+0.24%), and FTSE (+0.86%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the morning.  DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.39% and Oil (WTI) is off just under a percent to $69.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, and Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.).  After the close, we hear from Fed Governor Bowman again at 6:15 p.m.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Friday. 

So far this morning, there are no notable earnings reports before the open.

With that background, it looks like markets are indecisive this morning.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly lower. At that point, all three continued lower before reversing to run back up toward the start of the early session.  SPY is printing a Doji that has passed a retest of its T-line (8ema) from above.  Meanwhile, DIA is giving us a Dragonfly Doji after not quite retesting the T-line from above.  Finally, the QQQ is showing us a black-bodied Hammer that sits just above its T-line after a retest from above.  So, the short-term trend is now slightly bullish-to-indeterminant with all three major index ETFs sitting very near above their T-line. However, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines, but the T2122 indicator is now back in center of its overbought range. So, the Bears may have a little more slack to work with today, but there is still room to run higher if the bulls find traction.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the red at this point of the early session morning.  GOOGL (-0.85%) is leading the way lower while TSLA (+0.52%) is holding up best. being punished for last night’s strong earnings report.  NVDA (-0.54%) is the leader in dollar-volume traded this morning, having traded almost 1.5 times as much stock as TSLA, which itself has traded almost 9 times as much as the next premarket volume leader.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day mostly flat.  SPY opened dead flat, DIA gapped up 0.15%, and QQQ opened 0.05% lower.  From there, all three major index ETFs sold off sharply for the first hour before meandering along a volatile bottom until 2:30 p.m.  At that point, we saw a sharp rally back to flat (or even positive in DIA) by day end.  This action gave us Dragonfly Doji candles in the SPY and QQQ while DIA printed a white-bodied, long-handled Hammer candle.  SPY closed just pennies above its T-line (8ema) while DIA retested and failed its retest from below of its own T-line. (It was not a huge fail, as it came up about 40 cents short of that average.)  This all happened on below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ while DIA delivered average volume.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green as Healthcare (+0.81%) and Energy (+0.77%) were out front leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, it was Consumer Defensive (-0.19%) and Financial Services (-0.14%) were the laggards that were in the red.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.03%, DIA gained 0.33%, and QQQ lost 0.06%.  VXX climbed 3.56% to close at 48.03 and T2122 climbed again to the center of the mid-range to close at 53.79.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields rose again to 4.416% while Oil (WTI) fell 0.63% to close at $68.95 per barrel. So, Wednesday was a day marked by fears about NVDA earnings and, secondarily, the end of the world in a nuclear flash.  However, either NVDA news leaked or traders same to their senses late and drove the major averages back to flat.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday was limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which came in with a just slightly larger than expected inventory build at +0.545 million barrels (compared to a forecast of +0.400 million barrels and down from the prior week’s +2.089-million-barrel reading).

In Fed news, on Wednesday, Fed Governor Bowman (the most hawkish FOMC member) said she backs a cautious approach to further rate cuts.  Bowman said, “I would prefer to proceed cautiously in bringing the policy rate down to better assess how far we are from the end point, while recognizing that we have not yet achieved our inflation goal and closely watching the evolution of the labor market.”  She continued, saying, “My estimate of the neutral policy rate is much higher than it was before the pandemic, and therefore we may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think.” Unlike Chairman Powell (and most other Fed members), Bowman said she still does not see the risks to the dual mandates as balanced.  She said, “I see greater risks to the price stability side of our mandate, especially while the labor market remains near full employment, but it is also possible that we could see a deterioration in labor market conditions.” Later, Boston Fed President Collins reiterated that she sees more FOMC rate cuts ahead. Collins told an audience Wednesday that, “I expect additional adjustments will likely be appropriate over time, to move the policy rate gradually from its current restrictive stance back into a more neutral range.” She went on to say that she thought the economy was “in a good place” with inflation continuing to fall.  Collins said, “I see little scope for wages to disrupt the ongoing disinflation progress.”  At the same time, Fed Governor Cook indicated she was much more in Collins’ camp (as compared to Bowman’s camp).  Cook told an audience, “The totality of the data suggests that a disinflationary trajectory is still in place and that the labor market is gradually cooling.” She went on, “Going forward, I still see the direction of the appropriate policy rate path to be downward.”

After the close, BBAR, KLC, NVDA, PANW, and SNOW all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (NVDA had a 10% revenue beat, which amounted to nearly doubling sales from one year prior, and a 9.5% earnings beat.  They also said they expect to beat on revenue in Q4 as well. HOWEVER, the Q4 sales forecast will not beat estimates by as much as Q3 beat them. So, NVDA stock is trading lower.)  Meanwhile, MMS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CPA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, SQM missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly all red with the lone exception of Shanghai (+0.07%).  Thailand (-1.51%) was the biggest loser, followed by Japan (-0.85%), and India (-0.72%).  In Europe, the picture leans toward the green side with eight of the 14 bourses above break-even at midday.  The CAC (-0.13%), DAX (+0.37%), and FTSE (+0.39%) lead the region modestly higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day ahead of data.  The DIA implies a +0.33% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% start, and the QQQ implies a +0.17% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.398% and Oil (WTI) has popped +2.07% to $70.17 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), October Existing Home Sales and US Leading Economic Indicator Index (both at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). Then, after the close (4:30 p.m.) we also hear from Fed Vice-Chair Barr.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ATKR, BIDU, BJ, ROAD, DE, IQ, BEKE, PDD, VSTS, and WMG.  Then, after the close, CPRT, GAP, INTU, NTAP, ROST, and UGI report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, DE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, BJ, IQ, and BEKE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ATKR and BIDU beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, PDD missed on both the top; and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls have control at this point of the morning.  All three major index ETFs gapped down modestly to start the premarket and followed through at least a little (especially in the QQQ).  However, then the Bulls stepped in and drove price back up, creating white-bodied candles that are back above their T-lines (8ema).  Although, to be fair, QQQ is the laggard and barely above its T-line. So, the short-term trend is now bullish-to-indeterminant. Still, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in center of its mid-range.  So, there is plenty of room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum going. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, eight of the 10 are in the green at this point of the early session morning.  META (+0.49%) is leading the way for the gainers while NVDA (-1.02%) is being punished for last night’s strong earnings report.  Again, in a reversion to the way things were prior to the election (and probably due to earnings), NVDA is the leader in dollar-volume traded this morning, having traded almost 4 times as much stock as TSLA (+0.03%), which itself has traded almost 10 times as much as the next premarket volume leader.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday brought us a gap-down (on Putin nuke threat) bullish action day. SPY gapped down 0.58%, DIA gapped 0.80% lower, and gapped down 0.53%.  From there, DIA made a small detour lower, but then followed the SPY and QQQ in a consistent rally by all three major index ETFs until 2 p.m.  Then they all three sold off for 40 minutes before drifting modestly higher the rest of the day.  This action gave us white candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  SPY gave us a large, gap-down, white-bodied outside day candle that retested its T-line (8ema) from below…and closed right on the average (to the penny).  Meanwhile, DIA printed more of a gap-down, white-bodied fat Spinning Top.  Finally, QQQ gave us a gap-down, large, white-bodied candle with a small upper wick. QQQ came close, but did not quite retest its T-line from below. This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs. (Well below-average in QQQ.)

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green as Technology (+1.11%) and Utilities (+0.83%) were way out front leading the rest of the market higher. On the other side, Communications Services (-0.53%) was by far the worst-performing sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.37%, DIA lost 0.31%, and QQQ gained 0.69%.  VXX climbed 3.32% to close at 46.38 and T2122 climbed slightly, but remains in the bottom half of its mid-range to close at 46.38.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to 4.392% while Oil (WTI) gained 0.61% to close at $69.58 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a day marked by Putin’s bellowing that led the West to knee-jerk into fear of nuclear war.  However, almost as soon as the market opened, traders regained their senses to realize that like everything in life, it’s not as bad a feared (or as good as hoped).  So, we rallied off the lows in a steady pace until some mid-afternoon profit-taking.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited, but included Preliminary October Building Permits, which came in a bit lower than expected at 1.416 million (compared to a forecast of 1.440 million and a September reading of 1.425 million). At the same time, October Housing Starts were also a little light at 1.311 million (versus a forecast of 1.340 million and the September 1.353 million value).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a larger inventory build than predicted at +4.753 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 0.800-million-barrel build and the prior week’s 0.777-million-barrel drawdown).

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said, “The decision to lower rates is an acknowledgement of the … growing confidence that … inflation is on a path to reach the Fed’s 2% objective.  A confidence based in part on signs that both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months.”  Schmid continued, “(It) remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.”  He went on to warn against worrying about inflation from too much government spending, saying, “Large fiscal deficits will not be inflationary because the Fed will do its job. … However, that could mean persistently higher interest rates.” (A back-handed warning about too much spending and cutting of taxes.)

After the close, KEYS, LZB, QFIN, and SNEX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, ZTO missed (massively) on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again.  Shenzhen (+0.78%) and Shanghai (+0.66%) were the biggest gainers while Taiwan (-0.70%) was by far the biggest loser on the day.  In Europe, with two minor exceptions, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.13%), DAX (+0.25%), and FTSE (-0.07%) lead the region higher on volume in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.24% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 4.43% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.65% to $69.84 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  However, we also hear from Fed Governor Bowman at 12:15 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include RERE, BERY, DY, NIO, TGT, TJX, WSM, YSG, and ZIM.  Then, after the close, BBAR, SQM, CPA, MMS, NVDA, PANW, and SNOW report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, October Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Index, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ATKR, BIDU, BJ, ROAD, DE, IQ, BEKE, PDD, VSTS, WMG, CPRT, GAP, INTU, NTAP, ROST, and UGI.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, RERE, DY, TJX, and ZIM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, NIO and TGT missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, it looks like the market is indecisively positive so far this morning in the premarket.  All three major index ETFs made a small gap higher to start the early session, but all three have printed Doji-like candles since that start.  SPY and QQQ are above their T-line (by virtue of the gap and only barely) while DIA remains below.  So, the short-term trend is indeterminant-to-bearish. Still, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in center of its mid-range.  So, there is plenty of room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, exactly half are in the green and the other half in the red so far this morning.  NFLX (+0.69%) is leading the way for the gainers while AMZN (-0.31%) is the worst laggard.  In a reversion to the way things were prior to the election, NVDA (+0.44%) is the leader in dollar-volume traded this morning, having traded about 1.5 times as much stock as TSLA (-0.18%).

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets mostly moved sideways on the day with a little more bullish energy in the Tech sector.  SPY opened up 0.08%, DIA opened down 0.08%, and QQQ gapped up 0.31%.  From there, SPY and QQQ followed through to the upside until 11:45 a.m. before they gave back about a third of their post-open gains in a long, slow, mostly sideways slide that lasted the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, DIA meandered sideway back and forth across its opening “gap” all day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY and QQQ both printed white-bodied Spinning-Top, Bullish Harami candles that remained below their T-line (8ema) without testing.  For its part, DIA printed a Doji candle that retested and failed its own T-line.  This happened on well below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green as Energy (+1.50%) and Basic Materials (+1.24%) were way out front leading the market higher. On the other side, Healthcare (-0.13%) was the only sector below break-even.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.41%, DIA lost 0.07%, and QQQ gained 0.69%.  VXX fell 3.65% to close at 44.89 and T2122 popped up out its oversold territory into the bottom half of its mid-range to close at 40.82.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to 4.414% while Oil (WTI) popped 3.27% to close at $69.21 per barrel.  So, Monday was a divergence day the Big Dogs of Tech, like TSLA (+5.62%), AMD (+2.99%), NFLX (+2.80%), etc., dragged the broader index ETFs higher while the mega-cap DIA lagged.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.

After the close, ACM, BRBR, SYM, and TCOM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, ADM missed on revenue while coming in in-line on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Malaysia (-0.11%) was in the red.  Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.89%) and Taiwan (+1.34%) led the gainers.  However, in Europe, we see the opposite picture with red across the board at midday. The CAC (-1.16%), DAX (-1.14%), and FTSE (-0.43%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  DIA implies a -0.52% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.14% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 4.373% and Oil (WTI) is down two-thirds of a percent to $68.71 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to October Building Permits and October Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AS, ESLT, ENR, FUTU, LOW, MDT, VIK, VIPS, WMT, and XPEV.  Then, after the close, QFIN, KEYS, LZB, SNEX, and ZTO report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, October Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Index, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, RERE, BERY, DY, NIO, TGT, TJX, WSM, YSG, ZIM, BBAR, SQM, CPA, MMS, NVDA, PANW, and SNOW report.  On Thursday, we hear from ATKR, BIDU, BJ, ROAD, DE, IQ, BEKE, PDD, VSTS, WMG, CPRT, GAP, INTU, NTAP, ROST, and UGI.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major reports scheduled.

So far this morning, AS, ESLT, J, LOW, MDT, VIK, VIPS, and WMT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ENR, FUTU, and XPEV missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings. 

With that background, the broader markets seem be remaining indecisive relative to the last two closes.  Both SPY and QQQ gapped up modestly to start the premarket, but have sold down since that point (although it is worth noting that both candles have significant lower wicks, meaning they are well up off the early session lows at this point).  For its part, DIA opened the premarket modestly lower and has followed through to the downside since then, showing it is more decisively bearish. All three major index ETFs remain below their T-line (8ema), so, the short-term trend is bearish (although we don’t yet have a lower high and lower low to complete a true bear trend).  Still, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in its mid-range.  So, there is plenty of room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning.  GOOGL (-0.45%) is leading the way lower while NVDA (+1.57%) is holding up best.  As has been the case since the election, TSLA (-0.10%) is out front leading the dollar-volume traded by about 1.5 times over NVDA. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Friday saw the market open lower.  SPY gapped down 0.61%, DIA gapped down 0.40%, and QQQ plummeted 1.11% at the open.  From there, all three major index ETFs sold off.  DIA sold off until 12:30 p.m. and then meandered sideways along the lows the rest of the day. Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ sold until 2 p.m. before following the DIA in sideways meanders the rest of the day.  This action gave us gap-down, large black-body candles in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, DIA printed a gap-down, black-body Spinning Top candle.  All three major index ETFs gapped down through and closed below their T-line (8ema).  This happened on above-average volume in the QQQ and slightly below-average volume in the SPY and DIA.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were red as Healthcare (-2.44%) and Technology (-2.22%) way out in front, like 1.30% out in front, leading the market lower.  On the other side, Utilities (+1.03%) was the far-and-away the strongest sector for the day.  At the same time, SPY lost 1.28%, DIA lost 0.73%, and QQQ lost 2.38%.  VXX spiked 7.15% to close at 46.59 and T2122 dropped into the top half of the oversold territory to close at 15.49.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell just a bit to 4.445% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.55% to close at $66.95 per barrel. So, Friday was a bearish day from before the open.  It continued South after the open and only found support mid-afternoon (or maybe traders just took off early for the weekend).

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included October Core Retail Sales, month-on-month, which came in lower than expected at +0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and far below September’s +1.0% value). On the headline side, October Retail Sales (month-on-month), which were stronger than expected at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and well down from September’s +0.8% reading).  At the same time, the October Export Price Index was much higher than predicted at +0.8% (compared to a forecasted -0.1% and September’s -0.6% number).  On the other side, the October Import Price Index was also higher than anticipated at +0.3% (versus a forecasted -0.1% and September’s -0.4% reading).  Meanwhile, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was MUCH stronger than predicted at 31.20 (versus a -0.30 forecast and a October -11.90 value).  Later, October Industrial Production was improved but down at -0.29% compared to September’s -0.73% number.  Then, September Business Inventories (month-on-month) grew less than expected at +0.1% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and an August +0.3% value).  Finally, September Retail Inventories increased less than predicted at +0.2% (versus a +0.3% forecast but up from August’s +0.1% number).

In Fed news, on Friday, Boston Fed President Collins warned about the risks of “technology developments.” She said, “We must all be attuned to the very real risks and challenges (of technical innovations).”  Later, Collins also spoke to Bloomberg, where she said, “I certainly wouldn’t take (a rate cut in) December off the table. But again, we’re not on a preset path and so we’ll have a look carefully at the data and see what makes sense when we get to that meeting.”  Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told Bloomberg, “I think we are going to be looking at rates coming down over the next year along the line the dot-plot said.”  He went on to indicate that he sees a quarter point cut in December and another full percentage cut in 2025.  (This was a much more open and dovish stance than other Fed members, especially given the Trump inflationary tariff plans.) 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with six or the region’s 12 exchanges in red and the other 6 in green.  South Korea (+2.16%) was the biggest gainer while Shenzhen (-1.91%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, we see a much bleaker picture with 13 of that region’s 14 bourses in the red.  The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (-0.26%), and FTSE (+0.06%) lead the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 8 a.m., Futures are mixed on modest trading.  The SIA implies -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.11% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.38% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.481% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $67.40 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include.  However, after the close, BRBR and TCOM are scheduled to report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get October Building Permits, October Housing Starts, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, October Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Index, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Preliminary November S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Services PMI, Preliminary November S&P Global Composite PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan Consumer 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan Consumer 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from AS, ESLT, ENR, FUTU, LOW, MDT, VIK, VIPS, WMT, XPEV, QFIN, KEYS, LZB, SNEX, and ZTO.  Then Wednesday, RERE, BERY, DY, NIO, TGT, TJX, WSM, YSG, ZIM, BBAR, SQM, CPA, MMS, NVDA, PANW, and SNOW report.  On Thursday, we hear from ATKR, BIDU, BJ, ROAD, DE, IQ, BEKE, PDD, VSTS, WMG, CPRT, GAP, INTU, NTAP, ROST, and UGI.  Finally, on Friday, there are no major reports scheduled.

With that background, markets seem indecisive in a more volatile way early. The SPY and QQQ both gapped higher to start the early session, but both have printed decent-sized black candles since then, moving back toward flat. Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the premarket, but has rallied back toward flat from the other side.  All three remain below their T-line (8ema), so, the short-term trend has turned down. However, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines, but the T2122 indicator is now back in the upper part of its oversold territory.  So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning.  Again, TSLA (+5.65%) is way out front leading the gainers while NVDA (-2.65%) and NFLX (-2.05%) are far being the reset of the dogs.  It is worth noting that TSLA is again the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded with 1.5 times as much money changing hands on that ticker as NVDA, which itself has traded 11 times as much as the next closest ticker.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened mostly flat on Thursday.  SPY opened up 0.02%, DIA opened 0.19% higher, and QQQ opened down 0.07%.  However, after that start, all three major index ETFs slowly walked a stair-step trend lower all day long.  That action gave us large, black-bodied candles in all three. SPY printed what could be called a “Bearish Trader’s Best Friend” signal (Doji followed by a gap-down large black candle).  It retested its T-line (8ema) from overhead and managed to close just above the average.  Meanwhile, DIA printed a Doji Continuation Pattern (two large black candles separated by a Doji in between), which is also sometimes called a Doji Sandwich.  It did not quite retest its T-line.  At the same time, QQQ printed a Bearish Trader’s Best Friend like SPY.  QQQ also retested (from above) and passed the test of its T-line. Once again, this happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were red with Healthcare (-1.74%) and Industrials (-1.48%) way out in front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Energy (+0.81%) was the only sector to hang onto green territory for the day.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.64%, DIA lost 0.48%, and QQQ lost 0.69%.  VXX was just on the red side of flat to close at 43.48 and T2122 dropped but remains just outside of oversold territory at the bottom of its mid-range to close at 24.73.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields climbed again to 4.455% while Oil (WTI) was just up 0.31% to close at $68.67 per barrel.  So, Thursday saw a flattish open and then an all-day tepid, step-like selloff that continued the pullback.  With that said, all three major ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema) and that means the trend is bullish, if only modestly.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit better than expected at 217k (compared to a forecast of 224k and the prior week’s 221k reading).  On the on-going side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also down a touch to 1,873k (versus a 1,880k forecast and the 1,884k previous week value).  At the same time, October Core PPI (Month-on-Month) was up a tick as predicted at +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and the September +0.2% reading).  For the headline number, the October PPI (Month-on-Month) was also up a tick as anticipated to +0.2% (versus a +0.2% forecast and +0.1% September number).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger-than-expected inventory build of 2.089 million barrels (compared to a forecasted +0.400 million barrels and in-line with the previous week’s +2.149 million barrels reading).  After the close, the Fed’s Balance Sheet showed a $27 billion decline from the prior week, down to $6.967 trillion.

In Fed news, on Thursday, Fed Governor Kugler told an Economist conference that the FOMC has made good progress toward both of its mandates.  Kugler said, “The United States has seen considerable disinflation while experiencing a cooling but still resilient labor market.” However, she continued, “(a combination of) continued but slowing trend in disinflation and cooling labor markets means that we need to continue paying attention to both sides of our mandate.”  She went on, “If inflation doesn’t retreat further it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts. But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate.”  At the same time, Richmond Fed President Barkin said high union wage settlements (thinking of the BA deal) and incoming President Trump’s broad and high tariffs are among the reasons the FOMC must be cautious. 

Barkin told a Real Estate Roundtable, “Being thoughtful, gradual, systemic, methodical …in terms of declaring victory…is not a bad judgment, because you may have cost pressures coming for things like wages or tariffs or whatever happens…On the other hand you can’t ignore things that are disinflationary.”  Later, Fed Chair Powell said that the FOMC doesn’t need to be in a hurry to cut rates.  Powell said, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”  He continued, “We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

After the close, AMAT, GLOB, and POST all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red with only four of the 12 regional exchanges above break-even.  Shenzhen (-2.62%) and Shanghai (-1.45%) were by far the biggest losers while Australia (+0.74%) was far-and-away the biggest gainer.  In Europe, we see a similar picture with just four of 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (-0.13%), DAX (-0.11%), and FTSE (+0.07%) lead the region in mixed and modest early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.41% open, the SPY is implying a -0.54% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.80% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back “down” to 4.437% and Oil (WTI) is off a third of a percent to $68.45 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Friday include October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), October Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), September Business Inventories and September Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Williams at 1:15 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BABA and SPB.  Then, after the close, there are no reports scheduled. 

So far this morning, BABA and SPB both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  (SPB missed by more than 14% on revenue that was 4.5% higher than expected.)

With that background, the Bears seem in control of the market early.  SPY and QQQ both gapped down through their T-line (8ema) to start the premarket and have printed indecisive Doji-type candles since then.  At the same time, DIA opened the early session above its T-line but has sold off to be retesting that average now, being just below it but not on the premarket low.  That being the case, the short-term trend has turned down or, at best, may be flat in the case of the DIA.  However, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  (We would do well to remember that we are less than 2% from the all-time high in all three major index ETFs.)  In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are stretched from their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower part of its mid-range.  So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in the red this morning.  INTC (-0.96%) paces the losses while TSLA (+0.50%) is holding up better than the others.  It is worth noting that TSLA is again the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded with 4.5 times as much money changing hands on that ticker as NVDA (-0.27%), which itself has traded 7.5 times as much as the next closest ticker. Finally, remember it’s Friday.  So, prepare your account for the weekend by lightening up positions or hedging if appropriate.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw the market open flattish and meander back and for the around the gap.  SPY opened 0.08% higher, DIA opened 0.12% higher, and QQQ opened 0.09% lower.  As mentioned, after that open, all three major index ETFs meandered back and forth below and above that initial “gap” all day. This action gave us indecisive, Spinning Top or Doji-like candles in all three, which all also remain above their T-line (8ema). This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel.  So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day.  For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high.  With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included October Core CPI (Month-on-Month), which came in exactly as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.3%).  On an annualized basis, October Core CPI (Year-on-Year) also came in just as expected at +3.3% (versus a forecast and September value of +3.3%).  At the same time, the headline October CPI (month-on-month) was also as anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a forecast and September reading of +0.2%).  On an annualized basis, October CPI (Year-on-Year) was +2.6% (versus a forecast of +2.6% and the September reading of +2.4%).  Later, the October Federal Budget Balance showed a significantly higher than expected deficit of $257.0 billion (compared to the $226.4 billion forecast and far higher than the September $64.0 billion shortfall).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a unexpected drawdown of 0.777 million barrels (versus a predicted 1-million-barrel increase and the previous week’s 3.132-million-barrel increase).

In Fed news, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told Bloomberg, “I’ve got confidence about that (inflation heading down toward 2%), but we need to wait.”  He continued, “We’ve got another month or six weeks of data to analyze before we make any (more rate cut) decisions.” Later, St. Louis Fed President Musalem told a Memphis Economic conference that the Fed is in the “last mile” of the inflation fight and the FOMC can now afford to be deliberate.  Musalem said, “In my baseline scenario, based on current information, I expect inflation to converge toward 2% over the medium term … but recent information suggests to me that the risk of inflation ceasing to converge toward 2%, or moving higher, has risen, while the risk of an unwelcome deterioration in the labor market has remained unchanged or possibly fallen.” 

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed growing confidence that inflation is headed back to 2%.  Schmid said his confidence is “based in part on signs that both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months.”  He continued, “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.”  Speaking about the deficit, Schmid said, “As an optimist, my hope is that productivity growth can outrun both demographics and debt … But as a central banker, I will not let my enthusiasm get ahead of the data or my commitment to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.”  (In other words, he basically ducked the question.) At the same time, Dallas Fed President Logan said, “I anticipate the FOMC will most likely need more rate cuts to finish the journey” (meaning bringing inflation down to 2%). 

After the close, BZH, CSCO, HI, SARO, and TTEK reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AGRO and NU missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, BV, GPCR, and HP beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red with four exchanges above break-even and eight below-water.  Shenzhen (-2.83%) Hong Kong (-1.96%), and Shanghai (-1.73%) were by far the biggest movers. In Europe, with the exception of Athens (-0.3%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+1.08%), DAX (+1.32%) and FTSE (+0.40%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the morning.  DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.13% open, and QQQ implies a +0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.443% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.70% to $68.91 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, and October PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (11 a.m.), and Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed Chair Powell (3 p.m.) and Fed member Williams (4:15 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, and ZK.  Then, after the close, AMAT, GLOB, and POST report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, BN, EXFT, JD, NTES, NICE, SIEGY, and have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, NOMD, SBH, DIS, and ZK all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BILI beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  However, AAP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets seem tepid to modestly bullish and perhaps trying to put in a bottom to their three-day pullback.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket slightly higher.  Since that point they have put in small candles with SPY and QQQ printing small, Doji-like candles and DIA giving us a small, white, Marubozu candle.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trends remain bullish. In terms of over extension, none of the SPY, DIA, or QQQ are stretched above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range.  So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning.  AMD (+0.99%) is the biggest price mover (on overnight news of a 4% global layoff).  Meanwhile, TSLA (-0.47% on $280 million traded) is the leader in dollar-volume traded. (Again, this is the post-Trump win norm, but NVDA had been in that leader spot for 18 months prior to the election.) 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Tuesday.  DIA was the only one of the major index ETFs who’s open (+0.14%) was even worth noting.  After that open, DIA ground sideways for 15 minutes before selling off for three hours, bouncing modestly for an hour and then selling modestly into the close.  For its part, SPY traded sideways for 30 minutes, then followed DIA south, bouncing more strongly at 1 p.m. and then selling off modestly again at 2:45 p.m.  Meanwhile, QQQ chopped sideways for an hour, sold off more modestly than its peer index ETFs until 1 p.m., rallying almost back to flat by 2:45 p.m. and then drifting lower.  This action gave us black-bodied, indecisive candles in the SPY and QQQ (Spinning Top type).  For its part, DIS printed a big, black, Bearish Engulfing candle.  This happened on average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were red with Basic Materials -1.79%) and Healthcare (-1.59%) out in front leading the market lower.  On the other side, Technology (-0.03%) and Consumer Defensive (-0.28%) held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 0.33%, DIA lost 0.82%, and QQQ lost 0.18%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 44.52 and T2122 dropped all the way down into the lower half of its mid-range to close at 40.64.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields spiked again to 4.426% while Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat to close at $68.03 per barrel.  So, Tuesday gave us a morning selloff followed by a more modest bounce and then a drift lower the last hour of the day.  For the first time in five days, none of the major index ETFs printed a new all-time high.  With that said, we still look a little toppy with all three major ETFs well above their T-line (8ema).

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday was limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which fell a tick to 2.9% (down from September’s 3.0% reading).

In Fed news, Richmond Fed President Barkin indicated he feels the FOMC is in a good position. Barkin said, “A strong but choosier consumer, coupled with a more productive and better valued workforce has landed the economy in a good place.”  He continued, “The Fed is in position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves.”  Later, Fed Governor Waller urged the private sector to embrace payment system innovations like stablecoins, saying “(the FedNow real-time payment system) can bolster private sector efforts to link financial institutions in a decentralized and diverse banking system.” In talking about “synthetic dollars,” Waller said, “These assets could have a lot of potential benefits and eliminate inefficiencies in the financial system.”  Even later, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he thinks the FOMC monetary policy is “In my judgment we are still at a modestly contractionary stance, but ultimately the economy will guide us, in terms of how far we are needing to go in cutting interest rates.”

After the close, CAE, CART, FIHL, FLUT, NATL, RKT, and SWKS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DOX and OXY missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, LNW and SPOT beat on revenue but missed on earnings. However, PLUS and NGL missed on both the top and bottom line.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red side again.  Six of the 11 exchanges were in the red as South Korea (-2.64%) and Japan (-1.66%) led the way lower.  In Europe, we see an even weaker picture with just two of 14 bourses in the green at midday (although on much smaller moves than Asia).  The CAC (-0.16%), DAX (-0.06%), and FTSE (-0.14%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day ahead of CPI data.  The DIA implies a -0.30% open, the SPY is implying a -0.23% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.26% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back down a bit to 4.416% and Oil (WTI) is up half a percent to $68.49 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes October Core CPI and October CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), October Federal Budget Balance (2 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Kashkari (8:30 a.m.) and Williams (9:30 a.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, and KMDA.  Then, after the close, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, HBM and JHX reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, DOLE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background markets seem to be continuing Monday’s modest retreat.  All three of the major index ETFs opened the premarket lower and have printed small black candles since then. QQQ has the largest of the black bodies in the early session.  (Again, remember that this is before CPI data.)  However, all three also remain above their T-line (8ema).  So, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain bullish. In terms of over extension, the premarket action has brough SPY, DIA, and QQQ back within a normal distance above their T-lines and the T2122 indicator is now back in the lower half of its mid-range.  So, there is room to run for either the Bulls or Bears, if either can get some momentum.  (This small pullback is just what the doctor ordered for the health of a rally. With that said, we have to remember that every Bearish trend starts with a pullback.)  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in the red this morning.  By far the biggest mover, both in terms of price change and dollar-volume traded is TSLA (+1.86% on $1.0 billion traded) which is a percent greater move than the next ticker (either direction).  It is also almost four times the dollar-volume traded as NVDA (+0.25% on $261 million traded). This continued the massive change in these factors since the Trump win.  (You will have to decided for yourself if this signals an end to AI exuberance or is just a “Trump will pay Musk back” anomaly.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw the market open higher.  SPY gaps up 0.28%, DIA gapped up 0.40%, and QQQ gapped up 0.24%.  From there, SPY meandered sideways in the gap the rest of the day. Meanwhile, after the open, DIA continued to rally for 30 minutes before trading sideways with a slight bearish trend and ending the day about half way back to its opening level. As for QQQ, after the open gap up, it immediately sold off for 30 minutes recrossing the opening gap in the first 15 minutes before meandering sideways below Friday’s close the rest of the day.  This action gave us, gap-up black-bodied Hanging Man candles in both the SPY and QQQ.  (Both printed new all-time highs and SPY did manage to print a new all-time high close.)  At the same time, DIA gave us a gap-up, Shooting Star or Inverted Hammer type of candle that printed another all-time high and all-time high close.  This happened on above-average volume in DIA as well as below-average volume in SPY and QQQ.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were green with Financial Services (+1.72%) way out in front leading the gainers higher.  On the other side, Basic Materials (-0.95%) was again by far the biggest loser. At the same time, SPY gained 0.10%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ lost 0.06%.  VXX fell slightly to close at 44.65 and T2122 rose back into the bottom of its overbought territory, closing at 83.16.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields rose slightly to 4.306% while Oil (WTI) dropped another 3.13% to close at $68.18 per barrel. So, Monday saw a divergent, if mostly sideways day among the three major index ETFs.  It certainly felt a little toppy in nature.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  

After the close, GRAB reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, IAC beat on revenue while missing (massively) on earnings.  On the other side, LYV missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  Hong Kong (-2.84%), Taiwan (-2.33%), and Shanghai (-1.39%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape with region-wide losses at midday.  The CAC (-1.31%), DAX (-0.93%), and FTSE (-0.98%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  DIA implies a -0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.11% open, and QQQ implies a -0.07% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.361% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter of a percent to $68.21 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.).  We also hear from Fed members Waller (10 a.m.), Kashkari (2 p.m.), and Harker (5 p.m.).  Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALIT, AZN, SID, SATS, HTZ, HD, IGT, MOS, ONON, PTVE, SE, SHOP, SGRY, TME, THS, and TSN.  Then, after the close, AE, DOX, AHR, ARMN, CAE, PLUS, FIHL, FLUT, ICUI, CART, LNW, NATL, NGL, OXY, RXT, RKT, SWKS, SPOT, STNE, SU, and MODG report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, we get October Core CPI, October CPI, EIS Short-Term Energy Outlook, October Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed Member Williams.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, KMDA, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report.  On Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, AZN, HD, and SLVM reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, THS missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, ONON, SE, and TME beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, IGT and PTVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background markets seem tepid at these heights.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket modestly lower and have given us indecisive Doji-like candles since that start.  However, the short, mid-term, and long-term trend remain very bullish. In terms of overextension, all three are stretched above their T-line (8ema) and the T2122 indicator is now in (the lower end of) its overbought territory.  So, while there may be a bit more room to run, the market is in need of a pause or pullback for the health of the rally.  With that said, we have to remember that markets can stay over-baked longer that any of us can remain solvent betting on a reversal.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in the red this morning.  INTC (-1.44%) leads the losses while NVDA (+0.41%) paces the gains.  Once again, TSLA (-1.08%) is far-and-away the dollar-volume leader, having traded a very heavy $3.4 billion so far this morning…nine times as much as NVDA, which itself has traded 10 times as much as the third-place stock.  (This is definitely a Trump win phenomenon.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gave us a mixed start to the day Friday.  SPY opened 0.09% higher, DIA gapped up 0.23%, and QQQ opened 0.08% lower.  We also saw a divergence from that point, at least early.  SPY immediately began to rally and chased new highs right up to 2:45 p.m.  From there, SPY saw profit-taking all the way into the close. At the same time, after the open, DIA sold for 10 minutes off from the open before joining SPY in a rally until 11:30 a.m.  It then chopped sideways until 2 p.m. before rallying again to the highs at 2:45p.m.  At that point, DIA also took profits into the close. For its part, QQQ sold off a quarter percent after the open, chopping around until 11 a.m. when it followed the larger-cap index ETFs in a rally that lasted until 1:45 p.m.  Then QQQ ground sideways for an hour only to selloff back to Thursday’s close and grind sideways just above that the rest of the day.

This action gave us, white-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  The DIA gave us a gap-up Spinning Top candle that registered as a new all-time high and a new all-time high close. SPY printed a gap-up, white-bodied candle with significant upper wick. It came within 36 cents of the $600 level while delivering a new all-time high and all-time high close.  Meanwhile, QQQ gave us a gap-down, white-bodied Spinning Top that also printed a new all-time high and all-time high close. For the week, QQQ gained 5.48%, SPY gained 4.76%, and DIA gained 4.69%. 

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were green with Utilities (+1.21%) way out in front leading the gainers higher.  On the other side, Basic Materials (-1.10%) lagging way, way behind all other sectors (by more than 1%). At the same time, SPY gained 0.43%, DIA gained 0.62%, and QQQ gained 0.12%.  VXX dropped another 0.71% to close at 44.77 and T2122 fell back to just outside of its overbought territory, closing at 77.27.  Meanwhile, 10-Year bond yields fell to a still high 4.302% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.63% to close at $70.46 per barrel.  So, Friday saw more of the Bulls being in control as the election day and post-election rally continued. 

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Preliminary Michigan Nov. Consumer Sentiment, which came in up to 73.0 (compared to a forecast of 71.0 and a October reading of 70.5). At the same time, Preliminary Michigan November Consumer Expectations were also up to 78.5 (versus a 74.1 October value).  Meanwhile, the Preliminary Michigan November 1-Year Inflation Expectations fell a tick to 2.6% (compared to a forecast and October reading of 2.7%).  Finally, Preliminary Michigan November 5-Year Inflation Expectations were up a tick to 3.1% (versus a forecast and October value of 3.0%).

After the close, PBR reported a beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In stock news, on Friday, PNC announced plans to expand by adding 100 new bank branches with an investment of $500 million. Later, BA announced it plans to repay the employees it furloughed during the recent strike for the wages they lost.  However, BA still plans to proceed with the 10% cut in its global workforce (17,000 jobs worldwide). At the same time, Reuters reported that STLA and its Chinese partner Leapmotor have scrapped plans to build a second electric vehicle model at the STLA plant in Poland. Instead, the joint venture is considering making that second model a STLA plant in Germany.  Later, Bloomberg reported that BA is considering a sale of its Jeppesen navigation business for $6 billion.  Reportedly, potential suitors include private equity firms, which have expressed interest in that unit.  At the same time, Reuters reported exclusively that BA and SPR are very close to reaching a funding agreement that would give SPR a lifeline of cash.  (The deal will reportedly be announced as soon as this weekend. The exact details on amounts were not disclosed.) 

Elsewhere, TSLA closed above the $1 trillion market cap level for the first time.  This comes after a massive 29% gain for the week on speculation the Trump administration will pay back CEO Musk for hi support.  After the close, BNKG announced it expects to cut jobs as part of a broader cost-cutting program.  (No specifics were announced.)  At the same time, ENPH said it would be cutting about 500 employees and contractors (about 17% of the workforce). Later, BROS CEO Barone told CNBC that it plans to open 160 new coffee shops in 2025. (BROS currently has 950 locations.) Meanwhile, CRM announced it needs to hire more than 1,000 workers to help it sell its generative AI agent product. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, China approved a $1.4 trillion plan to bolster its economy by selling bonds and allowing local governments to refinance their massive, “hidden” (off books) debt loads.  The theory is that this will free up resources for the local governments to spend elsewhere, thus stimulating the economy.  At the same time, a US District Judge in CA ruled that META CEO Zuckerberg is not personally liable in the 25 lawsuits alleging that his company purposefully addicted children to social media.  However, the cases against META itself (brought both by many States Attorney General and the families of alleged victims) were allowed to proceed.  Later, TM “announced” that CA-led (but now in place in 12 states and the District of Columbia) electrical vehicle mandates that begin being phased in next year are “impossible to meet.”  TM went on to say, if the mandates are not changed, US customers will see fewer car choices in many states. 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the NHTSA announced that VLKAF (Volkswagen) is recalling 114k vehicles in the US over airbag concerns. Later, TPR announced it has paused integration of CPRI while it appeals a US court decision to clock the $8.5 billion acquisition. At the same time, a US federal appeals court ruled that WBD’s CNN unit must face a now-revived defamation lawsuit from “Project Veritas” which CNN had reported was responsible for promoting disinformation and doxing.  Later, the CA Public Utilities Commission increased reporting requirements on autonomous vehicle “incidents” (now at a trip level) for collisions, traffic citations, and stoppage events (when the self-driven vehicles get stuck).  GM, GOOGL, and TSLA are the companies immediately impacted.

Meanwhile, AAL lost its appeal of the US Justice Dept. decision to block the airline’s partnership with JBLU.  The US  1^st District Court of Appeals three judge panel ruled unanimously that the lower court judge’s decision was correct in siding with the Justice Dept. and FTC.  (However, this may be a non-event as the Trump administration is widely expected to be more corporate-friendly, including in terms of mergers and acquisitions.  So, the partnership could be floated again after January.)

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the New York Times reported sources tell it the new Trump administration is preparing to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and also shrink the size of some national parks and monuments to open up land for the oil industry to drill.  (The US is already the world’s largest oil producer, but one campaign mantra of Republicans was “drill baby drill.”)  In other oil news, the Dept. of Energy announced Friday that it had purchased its last batch of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with a contract to buy another 2.4 million barrels for delivery in April through May.  (This is the final batch because the Republican House rescinded about $2.05 billion of the funds the previous Democratic House had earmarked to replenish the reserve.)  So, 180 million barrels was released from the reserve at a sale price of $95/barrel.  Then the Dept. of Energy has replenished 59 million barrels at an average cost of $76/barrel, netting about $3.5 billion in profit but leaving the reserve 121 million barrels short of full capacity but also with $20.5 billion more money in hand and presumably falling oil prices under the new administration should they decide to complete the replenishment.  Elsewhere, MCO said Friday that the risks to US fiscal health increased after the election of Trump. (However, this is based on an assumption that Trump will actually implement the policies he promised during the campaign.  This includes corporate and personal tax cuts, across the board import tariffs, and deporting a significant chunk of the US labor force. That is far from certain as Trump isn’t known for keeping promises.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red with just four of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  Shenzhen (+2.03%) was by far the biggest gainer while Hong Kong (-1.45%) and South Korea (-1.15%) paced the losses.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday Monday.  The CAC (+1.17%), DAX (+1.37%), and FTSE (+0l.75%) lead the region high on broad-based gains in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward more gains.  The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.38% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bonds are down to 4.306% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.85% to $69.08 per barrel in early trading.

There is major economic news scheduled for Monday due to Veteran’s Day.  US Bond markets are closed for the day, but stock markets are open as usual. Major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARMK and ICL.  Then, after the close, GRAB, IAC, LYV, and TALO report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed members Waller, Kashkari, and Harker.  Then Wednesday, we get October Core CPI, October CPI, EIS Short-Term Energy Outlook, October Federal Budget Balance, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. We also hear from Fed Member Williams.  On Thursday, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, October Core PPI, October PPI, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and Fed’s Balance Sheet.  We also heat from Fed Chair Powell and Fed member Williams.  Finally, on Friday, October Core Retail Sales, October Retail Sales, October Export Price Index, October Import Price Index, Ny Empire State Mfg. Index, October Industrial Production, September Business Inventories, September Retail Inventories are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from ALIT, AZN, SID, SATS, HTZ, HD, IGT, MOS, ONON, PTVE, SE, SHOP, SGRY, TME, THS, TSN, AE, DOX, AHR, ARMN, CAE, PLUS, FIHL, FLUT, ICUI, CART, LNW, NATL, NGL, OXY, RXT, RKT, SWKS, SPOT, STNE, SU, and MODG.  Then Wednesday, ARCO, BKKT, DOLE, GFF, KMDA, AGRO, BZH, BRFS, BV, CSCO, DADA, EC, HP, HI, NU, SARO, and TTEK report.  On Thursday, we hear from AAP, AZUL, BILI, EFXT, JD, NTES, NICE, NOMD, SBH, TLN, DIS, ZK, AMAT, GLOB, and POST. Finally, on Friday BABA and SPB report.

So far this morning, ICL reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. At the same time, ARMK missed on revenue while reporting in-line on earnings.

With that background, it looks like the market is bullish again early Monday. All three major index ETFs made modest gaps higher to start the premarket. Since then, they have all followed-through with white-body candles so far in the early session. SPY, DIA, and QQQ all sit at new all-time highs again as we await the opening bell. Obviously, all three being far above their T-lines (8ema), the short-term trend is very bullish. The mid-term trend is now also very bullish and the longer-term trend remains strongly Bullish in all three as it has been for years. However, with regard to extension, all three major index ETFs are extended far above their T-line while the T2122 indicator remains just outside the bottom of its overbought territory. So, the market is stretched, but theoretically still has some room to push even higher. (Just remember that markets can remain too far extended longer than we can stay solvent betting on the reversal.) At the very least, we can say the Bulls have momentum but are in need of at least a rest, if not pullback. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green this morning with TSLA (7.09%) far out in front of the rest on what presumably is more of the “Trump paying back Musk” trade. INTC (-0.61%) is by far the weakest of the 10. In terms of trading volume, TSLA has traded five times more than NVDA (+0.70%), which is usually the dollar-volume leader. (That situation has been the new normal under the post-Trump win market, but is exactly the opposite of the “AI is the new thing” trade of the last 18 months.) Finally, do not forget that it’s Veteran’s Day, with Bond markets closed, but not a stock market holiday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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