Daily Trade Ideas Public Archives - Page 72 of 245

Reports A Bit Mixed But Still Positive

October 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened higher, immediately traded lower, and then began a steady rally into the mid-afternoon. There was some late-afternoon sag, but all 3 major indices closed as gap-up white candles. The DIA printed another Doji-type candle and the SPY printed a Spinning Top-type candle. On the day, SPY gained 0.54% (a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.23% (a new all-time high close), and QQQ gained 1.02%. The VXX fell 3% on the day to 21.03 and T2122 remains in the overbought territory at 86.97. 10-year bond yields fell (after being higher in premarket) to 1.634% and T2122 fell slightly (again, after being up a percent during the premarket) to $83.47/barrel.

TSLA was the big winner on the day crossing above $1 trillion market cap on a 12.7% gain. This move came on premarket news that Hertz has ordered 100,000 of TSLA’s electric vehicles by the end of 2022. After the close, FB missed on revenue by close to $600 million but still beat slightly on earnings. (Monthly active users were down a bit, but daily average users were in line with expectations.) UHS reversed the results, beating slightly on revenue but missing on the earnings line. Meanwhile, CDNS and ARE beat on both lines.

After the close, FB missed on revenue by close to $600 million but still beat slightly on earnings. (Monthly active users were down a bit, but daily average users were in line with expectations.) UHS reversed the results, beating slightly on revenue but missing on earnings. Meanwhile, CDNS and ARE beat on both lines.

So far this morning, UPS, MMM, ADM, PNR, SPGI, CNC, and JBLU beat on both lines. RTX, GE, and XRX missed on revenue, but beat on earnings. Meanwhile, SHW, WM, PHM, LLY, and GLW all missed on earnings, but beat on the revenue line. Only LMT has reported a miss on both lines at this point in the day.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again but leaned to the green side. Japan (+1.77%) was a strong outlier to the upside, with South Korea (+0.94%) and Taiwan (+0.83%) being the leaders of the pack for those exchanges that were green. Hong Kong (-0.36%) and Shanghai (-0.34%) paced the losers. In Europe, markets are mixed, but the bulls have much more energy at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.60%), DAX (+0.93%), and CAC (+0.71%) are leading the continent higher while smaller exchanges like Norway (-0.52%), Denmark (-0.42%), and Finland (-0.41%) are headed the other way. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another bullish open. The DIA is implying a +0.34% gap higher, the SPY implying a +0.43% gap up, and the QQQ implying a +0.62% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down and Oil is flat in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Sept. New Home Sales (both at 10 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include MMM, AAN, ARCH, ADM, ABG, CNC, GLW, CEQP, DAN, ENTG, FSV, GE, GPK, GBX, HAS, HUBB, IVZ, JBLU, LMT, HZO, MSCI, NVS, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, RTX, SPGI, ST, TRU, UBS, UPS, WM, and XRX before the open. Then after the close, ACCO, AMD, GOOGL, AMP, AGR, BXP, BYD, CHRW, COF, CB, CSGP, DLR, WIRE, EQR, FFIV, FBHS, GOOG, HA, IEX, JNPR, LBRT, LFUS, MSFT, NBR, NCR, PFG, RRC, TER, TXN, TWTR, V, and ZWS report.

Earnings are going to be the driver again today. So far today, it has been more of a mixed bag of reports among majors than we have seen early this earnings season. The trend remains bullish and the large-caps are sitting at all-time highs (with the tech-heavy QQQ closing on that blue sky fast). Remember, the trend is our friend, but also keep in mind that many of the FANGMAN big dogs report tonight. So, it’s possible we see some caution in at least the QQQ as traders wait to hear from GOOG, AMD, and MSFT tonight and then AAPL and AMZN on Wednesday. Be prepared, either way.

Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control. Remember that it’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OPEN, ORCL, MRVL, CHWY, FUBO, FSLY, CHPT, NIO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Bad News For FB and PINS as FANGMAN on Deck

October 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat in the large caps, but the QQQ gapped down a third of a percent on Friday. After indecision the first hour, all 3 major indices saw a selloff the last hour of the morning. From there was a sideways drift with a slight bullish slope. This left us with indecisive candles in all 3 major indices, a Doji in the SPY, a white Spinning Top in the DIA, and a Black Spinning Top in the QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.08%, DIA gained 0.23% (to close at a new all-time high close by a few cents), and the QQQ lost 0.84%. The VXX rose more than 2% to 21.70 and T2122 slipped slightly but remains in the overbought territory at 85.90. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.641% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $84.09/barrel.

Bloomberg reported Sunday that China is expecting a new Covid outbreak to get worse in the coming days. As a result, they have begun locking down some cities and regions (not to the provincial level yet). If there is any silver lining to this cloud, it is that the current outbreak is mostly in the northern provinces such as Inner Mongolia, which are not the important manufacturing or shipping regions. So, from a global supply chain perspective, this is as good as such a cloud gets.

Over the weekend in Europe, Brexit was back in the news. The British PM Johnson has been threatening to unilaterally suspend the portion of the post-Brexit trade deal related to Northern Ireland. So, on Friday the EU began internal discussions about terminating the entire trade deal in the case that Britain breaks the portion related to Northern Ireland. The two sides also began intense negotiations to avoid the break. The Pound fell half a percent on this news. If the deal were to be scrapped, it would wreak havoc with the UK economy at least for months.

This morning Bloomberg is reporting that FB has been keeping investors in the dark about an alarming new trend that is accelerating. This was part of the basis (if not the media/Congress publicized reason) behind the SEC whistleblower complaint in early October. It seems that researchers inside FB reported to executives in late March that teens (13-17) and young adults (18-29) are spending far less time and sending fewer messages in the last year. In fact, fewer teens are even signing up to the platform. The most troubling fact is that users across all age groups are creating fewer posts at a time when logically they were home more and had very little in the way of other social outlets. Obviously, these trends are a major threat to the company’s advertising business and is the driver behind the recent massive increase in FB marketing efforts.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Shanghai (+0.76%) and Shenzhen (+0.72%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, Japan (-0.71%) and Thailand (-0.56%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are also mixed as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.38%) and DAX (+0.19%) are modestly higher, while the CAC (-0.20%) and many of the smaller exchanges are down in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the green side of flat. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implies a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.26% open to start the week. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.663% and Oil (WTI) is up a percent in early trading. Finally, contrary to reports last week, PYPL announced that it’s not interested in buying PINS at this point.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release on Monday. Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARLP, HSBC, IBA, KMB, LII, OTIS, and QSR before the open. Then after the close, ARE, AXTA, BRO, CDNS, CR, CCK, FB, LOGI, OI, PKG, SSD, SUI, TBI, and UHS report.

As we head into a heavy earnings week, the rest of the world looks to be waiting on more direction. The bullish trend is getting some relief from over-extension and that rest may continue today as the market wants to see another earnings card before placing its next bet. So, the bulls remain in control of the trend, but biding time may be the order of the day. Remember, FB reports tonight, GOOG, AMD, and MSFT report Tuesday, and AAPL and AMZN report Wednesday…just among the FANGMAN leaders. Those reports could make major waves in the market. Be prepared.

Remember that it’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control. Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Trade carefully and think twice about holding through earnings.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APA, CLF, ARKK, EOG, DVN, HAL, BP, KRE, SAM, PFE, JNJ, ORCL, M. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

SPY Pushed to Record On Strong Earnings

October 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly lower on Thursday and then waffled around while the bulls found their footing. However, by mid-morning a slow, steady rally was underway that ran all the way into the close. This marked the 7^th straight higher close in the SPY and gave us a new all-time high close. DIA just missed both marks while printing a Hanging Man-type candle. Meanwhile, the QQQ printed a Bullish Engulfing candle. On the day, SPY gained 0.28%, QQQ gained 0.61%, and DIA lost 0.02%. The VXX fell 3% to 21.22 and T2122 backed off just a bit but it remains deep in the overbought territory at 92.8. 10-year bond yields rose again to 1.69% and Oil (WTI) fell almost a percent to $82.66/barrel.

During the day, cryptocurrencies took a hit as an algo ran amuck on one of the major exchanges. Binance reported that one of their institutional traders suffered an error in their algorithm. This caused massive selling which drove the price of Bitcoin from $65,000 down to $8,200 (down 87%) before immediately snapping back. So, it was similar to the stock market flash crash from 2010. At the time of Thursday morning’s crash, $40 million of bitcoin was traded on the Binance exchange.

After the close, INTC and WHR both missed on revenue but handily beat on earnings. INTC in particular decried the chip shortage for hurting its personal computer business. Meanwhile, CMG, SIVB, CE, and RHI all beat on both lines. However, SNAP missed on both lines and got crushed in post-market trading. Analysts are expecting the SNAP miss to read through to other online advertising platforms as the company specifically cited the AAPL opt-in vs opt-out privacy policy as impacting ad revenue.

So far this morning, the strong earnings continue as DHR, MMC, IQV, TSCO, KEY, DGX, IPG, SNA, VLO, LUV, AAL, and ALK have all posted beats on both the top and bottom lines. However, ALLE and T both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed in modest trading. Singapore (+0.52%), Hong Kon (+0.42%), and Thailand (+0.36%) led to the upside. Meanwhile, India (-0.35%) and Shanghai (-0.34%) paced the losers. However, in Europe markets are strongly green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.54%), DAX (+0.85%), and CAC (+1.11%) are typical of the spread across the continent, but many of the smaller exchanges are following the French lead in early-afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed, modest opening. The DIA is implying a +0.21% open, the SPY implies a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.16% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down slightly and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am), Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and a couple of Fed speakers (Daly at 10 am and Chair Powell at 11 am). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AIMC, AXP, ALV, CLF, DSKE, GNTX, HCA, HON, RF, ROP, SLB, STX, and VFC before the open. There are no reports after the close.

Once again the bulls have refused to yield. So far, it looks like they are going to continue that drive toward blue-sky at the open today. With that said, we certainly appear to be working on borrowed time. It is not very often that you see this many white candles and green closes in a row. So, be careful. In particular, some traders might be looking to take profits after the run and heading into the weekend. So, be prepared for a pullback or at least a rest. As mentioned in recent days, don’t be chasing the rally. Let the market (and trade) come to you and trade carefully.

The weekend is upon us. So, think about how you want your portfolio to be adjusted ahead of the weekend news cycle. Take profits, hedge, and/or move stops as appropriate. You’re not missing anything if you don’t chase new positions. Remember it takes twice as long to recover losses, so the first rule of making big money is not losing big money. It is discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Finally, watch your current positions before looking to add new trades.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Strong Q3 Earnings Parade Continues

October 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened essentially flat on Wednesday, but then rallied the first hour of the day. In the afternoon we got a selloff, only broken by a bullish surge during the last 5 minutes of the day. This left us with white bullish candles with upper wicks in the SPY and DIA, but a black Spinning Top candle in the QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.39%, DIA gained 0.44%, and QQQ lost 0.13%. The VXX fell to 21.95 and T2122 rose deeper into the overbought territory at 94.01. 10-year bond yields surged again to 1.658% and Oil (WTI) rose another 1.5% to $84.25/barrel.

After the close, the FDA cleared both the JNJ and MRNA vaccines for booster shots. At the same time, the FDA also authorized “vaccine mixing” (getting a booster from a different manufacturer than the original vaccine). This kicks the issue to the CDC, which will consider the data from JNJ and MRNA today and vote as soon as Friday. While it is expected the CDC will authorize booster shots of the vaccines to be given to elderly and at-risk patients 6 months after the patient’s original vaccination, who qualifies for an FDA-approved vaccine is totally at their discretion.

Also after the close, TSLA posted record revenue and earnings, beating on both lines. Among the other majors reporting last evening CSX, CCI, PPG, and LSTR all reported beats on both lines. However, IBM missed on both lines, and DFS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side. Japan (-1.87%) was a huge outlier to the downside while Malaysia (-0.92%), India (-0.48%), and Hong Kong (-0.45%) were the non-outlier leaders to the downside. Thailand (+0.36%) and Shanghai (+0.22%) were the only appreciable winners on the day. In Europe, only Amsterdam is positive as the rest of the region is in the red at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.52%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.40%) are typical of the spread across the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing toward a down open. The SIA is implying a -0.26% open, the SPY implies a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.18% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up just slightly and Oil is off about three-quarters of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Weekly Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), Sept. Existing Home Sales (10 am), and a couple of Fed speakers (Waller at 9 am and Williams at 9 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABB, ALK, ALLE, ALLY, AAL, T, AN, BX, CROX, DHR, DOW, EEFT, FAF, FCX, GPC, HRI, IPG, IQV, KEY, MMC, NUE, NVR, POOL, DGX, RCI, SAP, SCHN, SNA, SON, LUV, TSCO, TPH, TRN, UNP, and VLO before the open. Then after the close, SAM, CSL, CE, CMG, INTC, MAT, OLN, PBCT, RHI, SNAP, SIVB, USX, WRB, WAL, and WHR report.

We didn’t really see a pullback on Wednesday, but after the strong rally of the 5 days preceding it, the market is certainly due at least a rest. So, as mentioned in recent days, don’t be chasing the rally. Let the market (and trade) come to you. Trade carefully, and be prepared for a potential rest day.

Remember, you’re not missing anything, so don’t chase. It’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. And that includes consistently taking profits when you have them. So, don’t let greed get the better of you. Focus on your trading process and on managing the things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Finally, watch your current positions before looking to add new trades.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DIDI, BTCM, M, BEKE, NOK, REAL, ROKU, FCEL, BB, OXY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Are Loving Q3 Earnings So Far

October 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Tuesday on more good earnings and then drifted higher in the morning. Stocks traded sideways in a tight range most of the afternoon before getting volatile the last couple of hours of the day. The good news for the bulls was that we closed on an upswing, which took us out near the highs in all 3 major indices. This left us with a strong, white gap-up candle in all 3 of those markets. On the day, SPY gained 0.76%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.76%. The VXX fell a percent to 22.17 and T2122 climbed up into the bottom of the overbought territory. 10-year bond yield spiked to 1.639% and Oil (WTI) gained half of a percent to $82.89/barrel.

The first Bitcoin-related ETF, BITO, which tracks CME Bitcoin futures began trading Tuesday. Trading was heavy early in the session but then slowed significantly after the early pop. BITO closed up 4.8% on the day. However, the debut did not go off without a hitch since the Blue Ocean trading system allowed overnight traders to purchase the ETF hours before it officially began trading on the NYSE.

After hours, strong earnings continued as NFLX posted a strong beat on earnings on revenue that was in line with estimates. It also reported better than expected new subscriber growth. UAL reported a smaller than expected loss and beat on the revenue line while reporting that travel is rebounding. At the same time, ISRG beat on both lines.

This morning healthcare is looking good as both ABT, BIIB, and ANTM beat on both lines. The banking space also continues its strong showing with regionals CMA, CFG, FHN, and MTB all reporting beats on both earnings and revenue. However, the oil patch may be under pressure as services provider BKR missed badly on both lines, and NEE beat on earnings while missing on revenue. VZ also beat on earnings but missed on revenue. Meanwhile, NDAQ reported beats on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves. Hong Kong (+1.35%) was a clear outlier to the upside and India (-0.83%) was an outlier to the downside. Still, most exchanges in the region were flat or moved less than half of a percent in either direction. In Europe, markets are mixed but leaning toward the green side on modest moves at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.07%), DAX (+0.12%), and CAC (+0.03%) lead the volume but are among the smallest movers in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.01% open, the SPY implies an unchanged open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.08% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down slightly and Oil (WTI) is down over a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Beige Book (2 pm), and a Fed speaker (Quarles at 1 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABT, ANTM, ASML, BKR, BIIB, CP, CFG, CMA, DB, FHN, KNX, LAD, MTB, MSM, NDAQ, NEE, NTRS, BPOP, SCL, UNF, VZ, WSO, and WGO. Then after the close, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, GGG, HPQ, IBM, KALU, KMI, LRCX, LSTR, LVS, OMF, PPG, RUSHA, SEIC, FTI, THC, TSLA, UFPI, and VMI report.

After a strong rally the last 4 days, which included 3 gaps higher, stocks seem to be looking to rest at the open Wednesday. Once again, it has been the tech big dogs that have been leading us higher recently (with most of their earnings coming in the next week). However, this strong rally is a bit extended and markets may think it’s time to let the moving averages catch up. We are nearing the all-time highs in the major indices again, but there is still some resistance to work through. So, trade carefully, and be prepared for a potential rest day.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GRPN, NUGT, SKIN, TME, FIS, PLBY, IQ. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Vastly Improved but Risky

October 19, 2021 by Doug Campbell

The technical picture of the indexes has vastly improved in just five trading days, but it has also created a significant risk to retail traders. For example, yesterday’s 250 point whipsaw in the Dow demonstrated the market sensitivity to a single downgrade of Disney. Moreover, earnings season is notoriously volatile, and with prices spiking, it also creates significant risk if we see some disappointing results. Finally, it would be wise to keep in mind before rushing into already elevated stocks that inflation, high energy prices, and supply chain impacts could create substantial earnings uncertainties. So plan your risk carefully!

Overnight Asian markets were mixed but mostly higher, with Hong Kong leading the bullishness up 1.49%. European markets trade with modest gains across the board this morning, monitoring earnings results. Ahead of the earnings results and housing numbers, the premaket pump is well underway, suggesting a gap-up opening as we stretch out from recent lows. Expect considerable price volatility as we react to all the data.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

The earnings begin to ramp up today, with our first big tech reports beginning this afternoon. Notable reports include JNJ, NFLX, BK, CNI, FITB, HAL, IBKR, ISRG, KSU, OMC, PM, PG, SYF, TRV, UAL, & WDFC.

New & Technicals’

When the Covid-19 pandemic swept the globe in 2020, the U.K. was hit hard, reporting some of the highest cases numbers and fatalities in Europe. However, the U.K.’s speedy vaccination rollout was widely praised and helped to bring cases under control. Now the situation is looking dramatically different, with the country recording close to 50,000 new Covid cases a day — giving it one of the worst daily infection rates in the world. Worries about Evergrande’s ability to repay its debt and a total of $300 billion in liabilities have put global investors on edge about potential spillover into the rest of China’s real estate industry and economy. A closer look at Evergrande revealed a company with many of the same problems as others in the Chinese property sector but didn’t act as quickly to respond to government rules aimed at resolving those issues. The company failed to address tighter regulation on debt levels and was the biggest Chinese real estate issuer of overseas high-yield bonds. Wall Street’s primary regulator released its highly anticipated report on the GameStop mania on Monday. The SEC said online brokerages, enticed to increase revenue through payment for order flow, are turning stock-trading into a game to encourage retail investors’ activity. “Payment for order flow and the incentives it creates may cause broker-dealers to find novel ways to increase customer trading, including through the use of digital engagement practices,” the agency said.

The vastly improved technical picture of indexes has inspired considerable speculation buying ahead of big tech reports. Now the big question is, can they produce sufficient results to support the elevated stock prices? The danger for traders is the recent steep rise in prices places a lot of downside risk should the earnings happen to disappoint. The DIA is more than 1200 points off the low in just five trading days, and the SP-500 is nearing 200 points. Considering the volatility of the current price action creates a siginifiant risk to traders rushing in with the fear of missing out. So plan your risk carefully, and make sure you plan your trades carefully. Remember inflation, high energy prices, supply chain issues, consumer sentiment, as well as the beginning of the Fed taper could make for uncertain earnings results.

Trade Wisely,

Doug

Another Big Week of Earning Ahead

October 18, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Friday, all the reporting companies crushed their earnings. Then Retail Sales came in stronger than expected. As a result, stocks gapped about half of a percent higher at the open. After a little morning chop, prices drifted higher the rest of the day, closing not far off the highs. This left us with gap-up white candles that closed near the top of the candle. On the day, DIA gained 1.07%, SPY gained 0.76%, and QQQ gained 0.63%. The VXX was flat at 22.79 and T2122 fell but remained in the overbought territory at 84.31. 10-year bond yields spiked again to 1.574% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.66% to $82.66.

In an interesting lesson for changing future energy markets, German electric prices plunged overnight. The drop was not due to high coal inventories or natural gas supplies. No, this drop comes on weather forecasts. In particular, forecasters are calling for record wind across Germany later in the week. And the logic goes that record winds mean record wind-powered electrical production.

Toyota has announced it will build a new battery plant in the US. This is part of the company’s modest $3.4 billion investment in electric vehicles in the US over the next 9 years. However, the effort should result in about 1,800 jobs with production of electric vehicles beginning sometime in 2025. The company has also launched a major lobbying effort designed to get US lawmakers to provide a $4,500 tax credit for US taxpayers who buy a union-made electric vehicle.

AAPL is holding another product launch event today at 1 pm Eastern. This event will announce an all-Arm processor lineup (replacing the last products with INTC CPUs).

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest trading. Shenzhen (-0.46%) and Taiwan (-0.45%) led to the downside. Meanwhile. India (+0.76%) and Malaysia (+0.48%) led to the upside. The rest of the region showed small moves in either direction. In Europe, prices are mostly down at mid-day, with the notable exceptions of Norway (+1.02%). The FTSE (-0.23%), DAX (-0.57%), and CAC (-0.76%) are typical of the spread in the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a lower open. The DIA is implying a -0.26% open, the SPY implying a -0.24% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.18% open at this hour. The Dollar is starting the week slightly higher, but 10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 1.602% and Oil is up 1.6% to $83.58/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday includes Sept. Industrial Production (9:15 am), Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and August TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to ACI and STT before the open. Then after the close, STLD and ZION report.

The bears are looking to start the week by pushing against the 3-day rally that ended last week. However, most eyes are on major earnings reports coming later in the week. So far, we’ve seen nothing but very strong earnings reported. However, to be fair, most of those were in the “big bank” space. This week will be another test as another major wave of reports hits the wire. Remember that we now have a short-term bullish trend in place, having confirmed with a higher -high on Friday. However, there is still some resistance above to work through. So, trade carefully, and be prepared for volatility to continue.

Focus on your trading process and on managing those things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Remember, you’re not missing anything, so don’t chase. It’s discipline and good trading rules that will win in the long run. That includes consistently take profits when you have them. So, don’t let greed get the better of you.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BIDU, RLX, RIG, FCEL, KWEB, NEM, PLUG, PUBM, AG, IP, GDX, AEM, BEKE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Good Earnings with Sales and Mfg On Tap

October 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

Earnings were great again Thursday morning and new Jobless Claims came in below expectations (and below 300k for the first time since March 2020). As a result, markets gapped higher by eight-tenths to one-plus percent. From there the bulls slowly followed through the rest of the day closing near the highs. This all resulted in the best day since March for the major indices. It also left us with a Morning Star signal in the DIA and strong, white, gap-up candles in all 3 major indices. All 3 of those indices also took out their downtrends and their T-lines as potential resistance. On the day, SPY gained 1.68%, DIA gained 1.53%, and QQQ gained 1.84%. The VXX lost 5.5% to 22.81 and T2122 spiked deep into the overbought territory at 95.98. 10-year bond yields fell again to 1.516% and Oil (WTI) gained over a percent to $81.43/barrel.

As mentioned above, on Thursday all the major earnings reports were stronger than had been expected by analysts. Maybe more importantly, several big banks said they are forecasting both that inflation will stay longer than expected, BUT also that corporate earnings will remain at record levels. These forecasts are based on the belief by JPM, C, MS, and BAC (all of which released forecasts) that consumers will continue to spend, mergers will continue to drive banking revenues, and that markets will remain strong, which will drive trading revenue gains. Most of the major banks also said that loan losses were significantly below expectations. However, they also said their new loan business (both residential and commercial) were down.

In pre-market earnings news, again we are seeing strong beats from all the major reports. In the banking space, PNC and TFC both reported blow-out beats. In the trucking sector, JBHT easily topped expectations as well. (GS, PLD, and SCHW are scheduled to report after 8 am.) Other stocks moving in pre-market include MRNA (see the note below), SPCE (delaying a commercial service), AA (on last night’s beat), PNC and TFC (earnings beats).

In various “approvals” news, late Thursday, the FDA Advisory Panel unanimously recommended the approval of the MRNA vaccine for booster shots to at-risk adults. This would match the status of the PFE vaccine. Meanwhile, in the crypto world, there appears there is a high likelihood (unnamed sources told Bloomberg a 75% chance the SEC will approve) that crypto ETFs will be approved today and could begin trading as soon as next week. As you can imagine, this is leading to a flood of buyers in Bitcoin trying to front-run what they expect to be a ton of retail-trader money coming into that space. (Bitcoin topped $60,000 last night but has backed off to $59,400 at the moment.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly well into the green. Taiwan (+2.40%), Japan (+1.81%), and Hong Kong (+1.48%) were the clear leaders. However, the only red in the region were small losses by New Zealand (-0.28%) and Thailand (-0.16%). In Europe, markets are following the Asian lead, but on smaller moves. The FTSE (+0.15%), DAX (+0.23%), and CAC (+0.48%) are typical of the continent as mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.43% open, the SPY implying a +0.34% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.29% open at this hour. The Dollar is slightly lower with 10-year bond yields up again and Oil three-quarters of a percent higher in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Sept. Retail Sales, Sept. Import/Export Price Index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), August Retail Inventories and Michigan Consumer Expectations, and August Retail Inventories (all at 10 am), Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and a Fed Speaker (Williams at 12:20 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include GS, PLD, PNC, SCHW, TFC, and JBHT before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

The bulls appear to be trying to follow through on Thursday’s strong showing in the pre-market trading. While strong earnings continue to be the driver, we do get Retail Sales, Manufacturing, and Consumer Sentiment data this morning, which could change trader spirits either way. However, remember that a broken downtrend does NOT mean that an uptrend has been confirmed yet. So, trade carefully, especially with the weekend news cycle ahead.

Don’t jump to any reversal conclusions or get caught up in the need for action or FOMO. Focus on your trading process and on managing those things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Remember, it’s discipline and good trading rules that protect us from ourselves. Consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed get the better of you. Finally, remember that we have monthly options expiring at the end of the week. So, it’s time to think about closing, rolling, or riding into expiration with very little time value left.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas for Friday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Q3 Earnings Strong As Big Banks Crush It

October 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Wednesday, markets gapped and ran higher the first 10 minutes, then sold off hard the rest of the first hour. However, whipsaw rules remain in effect and that led to a long, slow rally that ran higher the rest of the day. This took us out near the highs in indecisive Doji-like candles in all 3 major indices. It’s worth noting that the T-line (8ema) held as resistance again today. On the day, SPY gained 0.37%, DIA gained 0.06%, and QQQ gained 0.80%. The VXX fell 2% to 24.14 and T2122 rose to 76.34, just outside the overbought territory. 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 1.542% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $80.57/barrel.

September CPI came in hotter than expected. The Social Security cost of living increase was also announced at +5.9%, the largest in 40 years. A couple of Fed members also admitted in speeches that inflation is going to hang around longer than they had foreseen. Then at 2 pm, the FOMC minutes also indicated that (as was widely expected) the Fed has discussed and broadly agree that they should begin a gradual taper of buying bonds in mid-November (still buying, but buying less).

In the morning earnings releases, among the major banks, BAC, MS USB, WFC all easily topped estimates on both lines. (C is not scheduled to release until 8 am.) It is worth noting that like JPM yesterday, BAC’s report benefitted from better-than-expected loan losses that allowed them to reduce loan loss reserves significantly. In healthcare, UNH also reported a beat on both lines. In the retail/pharmacy area, WBA reported a very strong quarter, also handily topping estimates for both lines, saying they had administered twice as many Covid vaccine shots as had been expected. Interestingly, in the semiconductor space, TSM beat on revenue but came in a bit light on revenue (likely due to substrate shortages).

FB faces more bad headlines (and by extension so does TWTR). It was announced today that a whistleblower (not the same one from the US last week) is set to testify before the UK Parliament. This time, the testimony will be about FB knowing and not acting to combat election interference by “bot accounts” (controlled by government agencies in countries like Russia) in various country’s national elections. This hearing will be part of the debate for a UK law that would impose hefty fines if social media giants knowingly fail to take action against illegal or harmful content.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned higher. South Korea (+1.50%), Japan (+1.46%), and Indonesia (+1.36%) led the gainers. Malaysia (-0.49%) was the only appreciable loser as the rest of the region was flat on the day. In Europe, we see even more green as only Denmark (-0.35%) shows any real red at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.73%), DAX (+0.88%), and CAC (+0.90%) are all trading strong in early afternoon action. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher. The DIA is implying a +0.67% open, the SPY implying a +0.77% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.86% open at this hour. In early morning trading, the Dollar is higher, while 10-year bond yields are down a bit and Oil (WTI) is up 1.35% again.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes Sept. PPI and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (11 am), and a couple of Fed speakers (Bostic at 10 am and Williams at 1 pm). Major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BAC, C, CMC, DPZ, MS, PGR, TSM, USB, UNH, WBA, and WFC before the open. Then after the close, AA reports.

The bulls are looking to run on a second straight day of great earnings reports to start the season. Premarket prices are pointing to a gap higher. In addition, it looks like the “opening trade” stocks, such as travel and leisure are surging in the premarket. However, remember that the downtrend remains intact and the 8ema has held as resistance the last couple of days. So, trade carefully, because the whipsaw has been in effect especially early recently.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BTBT, FCX, AG, AMD, SNOW, MSFT, GOTU, BIDU, LI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

First Q3 Earnings Reports Are Strong

October 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up a bit at the open on Tuesday, but it was another bull trap. Stocks immediately sold off before doing an all-day roller-coaster that ended just up off the lows. So, all 3 major indices have now taken out their 8ema, but are sitting at a recent potential support. On the day, SPY lost 0.24%, DIA lost 0.35%, and QQQ lost 0.35%. The VXX fell almost 2% to 24.63 and T2122 remains in the mid-range at 58.25. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.572% and Oil (WTI) was unchanged at $80.52.

The JOLTs report on Tuesday showed what appears to be serious wage pressure. 4.3 million workers quit their job in August, the highest amount since December 2000. A number of analysts say this is a clear indication that workers were unhappy with their current wages (and past raises) and see the huge number of job openings as a rare opportunity to improve their situations. The only way to address this would be for employers to significantly raise wages to retain as well as draw in new employees. In addition, this first month of data seems to point to “extended unemployment benefits” not being a primary driver for the problem of finding workers. Together, these will mean real earnings pressure for companies without pricing power.

At the close on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that AAPL is likely to slash iPhone 13 production orders by as many as 10 million units. The company was expected to make 90 million iPhone 13s during Q4, but is now telling partners the number could be as much as 10 million units less. The cited reason is the TXN and AVGO are not able to meet chip demand. For its part, AVGO does not produce the chips they sell, they purchase production capacity from TSM, which may be a read-through to TSM and by extension TSM’s other major customers (AMD, NVDA, QCOM, and INTL).

In market news this morning, JPM posted a significant beat on earnings ($3.74 vs $3.00 per share estimated) but missed on revenue. BLK reported significant beats on both lines while FRC posted more modest beats on both lines. DAL also reported significant beats on both lines on growing travel demand. Weekly mortgage demand continued to stall last week as rates rose. 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan rats rose from 3.14% to 3.18% on average. As a result, refinance loan applications fell 1% while new home purchase loan applications rose 2% versus the week prior.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the green. Taiwan (-0.70%) and Japan (-0.32%) showed the only real red in the region. Meanwhile, Shenzhen (+1.54%), Singapore (+1.43%), and South Korea (+0.96%) led the region higher. In Europe, a similar story is taking shape. Russia (-1.05%) is the only significant red. Meanwhile, the FTSE (-0.09%), DAX (+0.74%), and CAC (+0.24%) are typical of the spread we see across the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mildly positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.11% open, the SPY implying a +0.15% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.34% open at this hour. The Dollar is trading lower, while 10-year bond yields and Oils are both slightly lower in early trading today.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes Sept. CPI (8:30 am), Fed. Budget Balance and Sept. FOMC Minutes (both at 2 pm), and a couple of more Fed speakers (Brainard at 4:30 pm and Bowman at 8 pm). Earnings season kicks off again today with reports scheduled from BLK, SDAL, FRC, INFY, JPM, and WIT before the open. There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

Premarket prices seem to be modestly bullish this morning as the first indications from earnings are that corporations are doing just fine, despite the fear over inflation, chip shortages, supply chain woes, and Covid. However, remember that the downtrend remains intact and the 8ema seems to be acting as resistance in early action. Trade carefully, today is only the first salvo of earnings data. Don’t jump to conclusions or get caught up in the need for action or FOMO.

Focus on your trading process and on managing those things you can control (while not worrying about things you can’t influence). Watch your current positions before looking to add new trades. Remember, it’s discipline and good trading rules that protect us from ourselves. Consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed get the better of you. Finally, remember that we have monthly options expiring at the end of the week. So, it’s time to think about closing, rolling, or riding into expiration with very little time value left.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RLX, ANY, GOTU, AG, FSM, NKLA, COST, MO, AOS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching