On Wednesday, markets opened just on the green side of flat.  All three major indices say 20 minutes of modest rally followed by 45 minutes of a slightly stronger selloff.  However, at 10:40 am, a slow, steady rally took over the market that eventually took us to new highs by 2 pm.  Unfortunately, after buying the rumor all morning, traders sold the news after the Fed Minutes release.  This selloff took us back down to new lows by 3 pm where we stayed until a bounce that last 15 minutes.  This action is giving us black-bodied, indecisive Spinning Top candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. 

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red as Energy (-0.60%) led the way lower and Consumer Cyclical (+0.50%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.12%, the DIA was down 0.22%, and QQQ was up 0.07%.  The VXX fell 2.86% to 12.22 and T2122 has climbed but remains well into the oversold territory at 13.72.  10-year bond yields have fallen slightly to 3.916% and Oil (WTI) is down 3.23% to $73.89 per barrel.  So, we saw a “wait and see” open (despite good earnings reports) and then a slow, but steady rally into the Fed Minutes.  However, at that point, we sold off to take all three major indices out near the lows.  All this took place on a little below-average volume.

In economic news, the FOMC Minutes from the Feb 1 meeting was the only show in town Wednesday.  As mentioned, their release moved markets lower, despite us not learning anything we didn’t know before the release.  All participants expressed that they welcomed the signs of moderating inflation leading up to the meeting.  However, the sentiment that “substantially more evidence of progress on inflation” would be required before they were confident inflation was on a downward path toward 2%.  The vast majority favored a 25-basis-point hike (which is what they announced).  However, three members (including non-voters uber-hawk Bullard and Mester) were in favor of a continuation of 50-basis-point hikes (or at least said they could support a 0.50% hike).  We knew those two had been in favor of a 50-basis-point hike prior to the minutes because they flat-out told us as much last week.  With that said, the minutes also gave us a clue that there was concern over financial stability, both from increasing rates too quickly and potentially from the upcoming Federal Debt Ceiling showdown.  The most heated exchanges were related to the risk of recession with a few attendees seeing an “increased likelihood” of recession while the majority pointed to the labor market which has remained hot implying that businesses still see demand and are working to hold onto or in some cases increase their number of employees and also pointed to excess savings, even noting that some local governments have “sizable budget surpluses.”

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In stock news, Reuters reported that the CEO of MKC told them during an interview that the company is seeing pushback from retailers on price increases for its products.  Specifically, WMT and KR (two largest grocery chains) were mentioned as fighting any increase in prices.  Elsewhere, Reuters also reported that CMCSA took advantage of the recent “AI craze” to sell more than 11 million shares of BZFD so far in the month of February. This came after BZFD has announced it was partnering with OpenAI on ads.  Later, Bloomberg reported that AAPL has made a breakthrough in non-invasive (no blood sample) glucose monitoring.  This would allow the phone maker to compete with current blood or prick required solutions from ABT, PODD, DXCM, and TNDM.  At the same time, INTC announced a cut to its dividend by 65% (to the lowest level since 2007) in an effort to save cash.  INTC has been losing ground to AMD in key markets, had many delayed and mediocre product launches in the last year and is currently facing the worst semiconductor market in a decade coming off the boom pandemic years of high sales and higher prices.  Meanwhile, after the close, TM announced it has accepted union demands for the largest base salary wage hike in 20 years as well as an increase in bonuses.  Shortly after the TM announcement, HMC said it also has agreed to a deal with unions.  However, the HMC deal was only for a 5% pay increase.  Finally, in early evening, GOOGL told “cloud employees and contractors” that they will be sharing desks (on alternate days) in order reduce real estate costs at its five largest locations.  Workers will be in-office two days per week (Monday/Wednesday or Tuesday/Thursday) which is actually down from the currently required 3 days in-office.  There was no word on the amount of expected savings or whether the workers will be 33% more productive on their two days in-office.

In stock legal and regulatory news, CRL shares plunged Wednesday after news broke that the company was subpoenaed by the US Justice Dept. in relation investigations of Cambodian supplier of monkeys for research.  At the same time, AMZN completed its purchase of One Medical (primary care provider) a day after receiving FTC approval for the deal.  Elsewhere, the US Supreme Court ruled that HLX is liable to pay overtime for an oil rig supervisor who earns $200k per year.  The 6-3 majority ruled the person was being paid at a daily rate of $963 and was not on salary. The ruling could have serious implications for corporations employing non-contract staff.  Meanwhile, NSC made several announcements Wednesday that it will take responsibility for the cleanup (as had been ordered Tuesday by the EPA.  After the close, the CDC advisory panel recommended a BVNRY monkeypox vaccine be approved for use in all adults at risk.  Such recommendations usually lead quickly to approval and if approved this would give BVNRY an advantage over EBS whose smallpox vaccine was competing for that market but which causes severe side effects.  Finally, in non-specific corporate news, the NLRB ruled that laid-off workers cannot be required to sign confidentiality or any other (non-compete) agreements that could deter them from exercising their rights to find other employment as a condition for receiving severance pay.  This overturned a pair of Trump-era rulings that had made non-compete and confidentiality contracts a valid condition for receiving severance.

In energy news, after the close the API Weekly Crude Stocks Report came out.  This week saw another very large and unexpected rise in stocks.  The report said crude oil inventories grew 9.895 million barrels (compared to a forecast of a 1.233-million-barrel build and following on the heels of the prior week’s 10.507-million-barrel build).  The report also saw a 0.894-million-barrel build in gasoline inventories as well as a 1.374-million-barrel increase in distillate (diesel and heating oil) stocks.  This report followed a day when crude prices fell 3.3% on fears of upcoming Fed rate hikes and a weakening of the China rebound.  In addition, the Fed minutes also supported a strengthening dollar which rose against sterling, the yen and euro.  (A stronger dollar reduces the price of nearly all dollar-denominated commodities.)

After the close, NVDA, PXD, EBAY, APA, CTRA, PARR, FIX, PDCE, RXT, ANSS, MYRG, CCRN, TDOC, PK, RUN, EXR, COKE, KALU, ICLR, VMI, OGS, STN, SUI, and SM all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, DVA, NTAP, CAKE, CDE, DVA, GSM, WES, and UCTT reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, MOS, OPAD, ETSY, CPE, CHDN, CHRD, BTG, DOOR, RYI, and PR all beat on revenue while also missing on earnings. Unfortunately, ATUS, SNBR, FNF, VAC, MATV, and OUT missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that RYI raised its forward guidance.  However, NTAP, VAC, OPAD, RXT, UCTT, and SUI all lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Taiwan (+1.28%) and South Korea (+0.80%) were strong but the only green in the region.  However, Japan (-1.34%) and Singapore (-1.06%) led the region lower with the rest of the exchanges down less than half of a percent.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the regional bourses are mostly green at midday.  FTSE (-0.18%) is one of three exchanges in the red while the DAX (+0.63%) and CAC (+0.48%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.30% open, the SPY is implying a +0.54% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.00% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are back up to 3.947% and Oil (WTI) is up 1% to $74.75/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday includes Q4 GDP, Q4 GDP Price Index, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (all at 8:30 am), and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (11 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BABA, AMR, AEP, AMT, HOUS, AMBP, AAWW, BBWI, BHC, CBRE, CQP, LNG, COMM, DPZ, DTE, EME, AG, FCN, GPC, GFI, IRM, KDP, LKQ, MRNA, MODV, NTES, NEM, NICE, NOMD, OPCH, PZZA, PCG, PRMW, PWR, RCII, SPTN, SRCL, FTI, TFX, BLD, TAC, VIPS, W, and YETI before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ACCO, ATSG, ACA, ADSK, BALY, BECN, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, CVNA, CE, CGAU, CENX, CHE, CWK, EIX, ERIE, FTCH, FND, INTU, LYV, MTZ, MELI, OII, ZEUS, OPEN, PBA, PRI, RHP, SEM, SWN, VICI, WBD, and INT report.

So far this morning, BABA, LYG, GPC, PWR, BBWI, AMT, BLD, SHOO, MODV, DTE, AEP, CQP, EME, RCII, OPCH, FCN, PZZA, and SATS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CBRE, VIPS, DISH, ARKAY, COMM, DPZ, IRM, TFX, OGE, PCG, and NICE all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, KDP, W, FTI, NEM, SPTN, NOMD, and GRAB have reported beats on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, MRNA, NTES, LKQ, and PRMW have reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that VIPS, GPC, PWR, IRM, BLD, and GRAB have all raised their forward guidance.  However, BBWI, SPTN, RCII, and NOMD lowered their forward guidance.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, the January PCE Price Index, January Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and January New Home Sales are reported.  In terms of earnings later in the week, on Friday, we hear from CM, GTLS, CNK, EOG, EVRG, FMX, FYBR, GTN, DINO, IEP, LAMR, and CRC.

In late-breaking news, Elon Musk met with CA Governor Newsom Wednesday.  As a result, the new TSLA Engineering Headquarters will be built in CA instead of in TX where the company Headquarters were moved in 2021 (in tax abatement wrangling).  Meanwhile, NY Fed President (and voter) Williams toed the company line last night.  In his evening presentation, he said it was important that the Fed remain committed to its 2% inflation goal.  (He did not speak to the most recent data, what he thinks would be the appropriate next hike, or where he sees the terminal Fed Funds rate reaching.)  At the same time, a PIMCO subsidiary has defaulted on $1.7 billion in mortgage loans. An industry analyst claims the value of the commercial properties (nationwide) covered by those loans had fallen 20% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. Finally, he CME Fed Watch Tool shows that fewer traders are betting on a quarter-point hike in March now. Still, the futures imply a 73% chance of a quarter-point hike with the odds of a half-point hike rising to 27%.

With that background, it looks like the bulls want to gap markets higher (back toward the T-line) in all three major indices. This is especially true in the QQQ when most of the T-line extension will be eliminated IF we open where premarkets sit now. All three major indices also have potential support levels not too far below. However, they also face resistance just above after the last few days of losses. The trend remains bearish in the short term while the basic character of the market has been “chop and thrash back-and-forth” in recent weeks. So, continue to show some caution.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were disappointed in lowered forward guidance from both WMT and HD on Tuesday.  This caused a gap lower at the open (down 1.02% in the SPY, down 1.05% in the DIA, and down 1.30% in the QQQ).  After 15 minutes of fading the gap (tempting the dip buyers), the bears took over for a long, slow selloff that lasted until 2:30 pm.  At that point, prices ground sideways in a tight range near the low for the last 90 minutes of the day.  This action gave us gap-down, big-bodied, black candles with little to no lower wick in all three major indices.  All three are well below their T-line (8ema) with the DIA crossing down through its 50sma and SPY coming down close above its own 50sma by the close. 

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red as Consumer Cyclical Energy (-3.30%) led the way lower and Consumer Defensive (-0.65%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 2.01%, the DIA was down 2.08%, and QQQ was down 2.37%.  The VXX spiked higher by 7.8% to 12.58 and T2122 plummeted deep into the oversold territory at 7.52.  10-year bond yields spiked hard to 3.954% and Oil (WTI) is down fractionally to $76.05 per barrel.  So, on the day, we saw a gap lower, a small bull trap, and then an all-day selloff on average volume (just greater than average in the SPY, and just below average in the DIA and QQQ).

In economic news, the Manufacturing PMI came in slightly above expectation at 47.8 (compared to a forecast of 47.1 and the January reading of 46.9).  At the same time, the Services PMI came in above forecast too at 50.5 (versus the expected 47.2 and the January reading of 46.8).  Meanwhile, the S&P Global Composite PMI beat the expectations too at 50.2 (compared to a forecast of 47.5  and a January value of 46.8).  It is worth noting that any of these PMI reading above 50.0 indicates economic growth while numbers below 50 indicate contraction.  Later in the morning, January Existing Home Sales came in below expectations at -0.7% (versus a forecast of +2.0% but still better than the December reading of -2.2%).  This drop was the 12^th straight monthly decline and also reached the lowest level (annually-adjusted 4.000 million units) in 12 years.

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In stock news, TSLA announced it has paused some plans to produce entire batteries in Germany and will instead carry out some of the steps in the US to take advantage of new US tax incentives.  Meanwhile, MSFT announced it will offer its PC games to the NVDA cloud gaming service.  This is seen as a move to appease critics of the MSFT acquisition of ATVI, as one of the grounds was that the AVTI game franchise “Call of Duty” would only be available via XBOX.  The deal with NVDA ensures Call of Duty will be available via XBOX, PCs, Macs, Chromebooks, Smartphones, and tablets.  At the same time, HSBC announced that it has cut the employee annual bonus pool by 4% to $3.4 billion, citing a global slump in demand for bankers to finance M&A deals.  Still, in the same release, HSBC also raised its CEOs pay by 14% to $6.7 million.  Then, after the close, Reuters reported that T is looking to sell its cybersecurity division in an attempt to pay down debt that it has lumbered under since the $108.7 billion purchase of Time Warner (which it has since sold) in 2018.  In similar news, C announced after the close that it has raised its CEO pay to $24.5 million (a 9% hike). Finally, AMZN is facing major pushback on its decision to force employees to return to the office as of May 1. Overnight, more than 5,000 employees signed a petition pushing CEO Jazzy to drop the return to office mandate. This came in addition, to thousands of internal office Slack system spam messages deriding the decision.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the EPA ordered NSC to clean up contaminated soil and water at the site of its East Palestine OH derailment wreck in early February.  It also ordered the company to send representatives to every public meeting with local residents after the company skipped the most recent one, citing fear for the safety of company employees.  Elsewhere, Swiss Financial Regulators are reviewing remarks made by the Chairman of CS.  Chairman Lehmann apparently told a Financial Times interview that the “outflows from the company (by customers) stabilized by December 1 (time of interview),” going as far as to say they had “flattened out” and partially reversed”.  However, the Swiss Regulator noted that customer outflows continued before, during, and after that interview.  Meanwhile, AMC shareholders (led by a public employee retirement system) have sued the company over issuing new shares without shareholder consent, in violation of state law.  Finally, the Biden Administration will not veto the US International Trade Commission ban on the US import of AAPL watches for infringing on patents owned by Alivecor.  (This refusal to veto is normal as Presidential vetoes of ITC rulings are rare.)

In energy news, CHK sold 2,300 wells and 172,000 acres of drilling rights (a portion of its Eagle Ford basin holdings) for $1.4 billion.  The deal is expected to close during Q2 2023.  Meanwhile, the March front-month Natural Gas future closed down again (another 7.8%) to $2.057/mmBtu (another 2.5-year low).  Analysts see minor support at $1.98/mmBtu, but below that prices are said to be likely to fall to $1.80/mmBtu.  This comes as another couple of days of uncommonly warm weather is forecast for the Ohio Valley region and Mid-Atlantic states.  Finally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Tuesday that the oil and gas industry could slash global methane emissions by 75% with an investment of just 3% of the industry’s 2022 income.  The energy sector is the source of 40% of methane emissions and the reason this is important is that methane has 85 times more warming effect than CO2.  Major oil companies have not (yet?) made a reply to the announcement.

After the close, CHK, CZR, CVI, FANG, AGR, TOL, PANW, MATX, KEYS, PSA, FLS, O, BKD, SBAC, LZB, IAA, WSC, CSGP, ALIT, and EXAS all beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, COIN, CWH, GFL, CW, and IOSP all missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UFPI, BXC, ESI, and MTDR beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, BCC, RIG, and UNVR missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that PANW, SBAC, and EXAS raised their forward guidance.  However, PSA, O, and CSGP have lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board.  South Korea (-1.68%), India (-1.53%), and Japan (-1.34%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday.  The European bellwethers FTSE (-1.15%), DAX (-0.73%), and CAC (-0.89%) are leading the continent lower even as several of the smaller exchanges have larger losses in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a -0.01% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.02% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down a bit to 3.935% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.85% to $75.74/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday is limited to the February FOMC Minutes (2 pm), the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report (4:30 pm) and Fed member Williams speaks (6:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ALLE, BIDU, BLCO, BCO, CRL, CSTM, CRVN, GRMN, GIL, IBP, IQ, NI, OSTK, PRG, SBGI, TRGP, TJX, TNL, UTHR, VRT, and WWW, before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ATUS, ANSS, APA, BTG, CPE, CAKE, CHRD, CDE, FIX, CTRA, CCRN, DVA, EBAY, ETSY, EXR, GSM, FNF, ICLR, LBTYA, VAC, DOOR, MATV, MOS, MYRG, NTAP, NVDA, OPAD, OGS, OUT, PAGS, PARR, PK, PDCE, PXD, PR, RXT, RIO, RYI, SNBR, SM, STN, SUI, RUN, TDOC, VMI, and WES report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Q4 GSP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  Finally, on Friday, the January PCE Price Index, January Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and January New Home Sales are reported.

In terms of earnings later in the week, on Thursday, BABA, AMR, AEP, AMT, HOUS, AMBP, AAWW, BBWI, BHC, CBRE, CQP, LNG, COMM, DPZ, DTE, EME, AG, FCN, GPC, GFI, IRM, KDP, LKQ, MRNA, MODV, NTES, NEM, NICE, NOMD, OPCH, PZZA, PCG, PRMW, PWR, RCII, SPTN, SRCL, FTI, TFX, BLD, TAC, VIPS, W, YETI, ACCO, ATSG, ACA, ADSK, BALY, BECN, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, CVNA, CE, CGAU, CENX, CHE, CWK, EIX, ERIE, FTCH, FND, INTU, LYV, MTZ, MELI, OII, ZEUS, OPEN, PBA, PRI, RHP, SEM, SWN, VICI, WBD, and INT report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from CM, GTLS, CNK, EOG, EVRG, FMX, FYBR, GTN, DINO, IEP, LAMR, and CRC.

So far this morning, BIDU, NI, IQ, BCO, CRL, ALLE, FDP, GEL, QUAD, and PRG all reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GRMN and TNL missed on revenue while beating on earnings. Unfortunately, CSTM, VRT, GIL, WWW, OSTK, UTHR, and DRVN all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It’s worth noting that VRT and ALLE both raised their forward guidance.  However, GRMN and CRL both lowered their forward guidance.  (TJX, TRGP, AGESY, IBP, and STLA all report later in the morning.)

With that background, it looks like the bulls have pushed premarket prices up off the lows and are now looking to gap higher by between a quarter and a half of a percent. If this holds into the morning, it will help with the extension (which was not “terrible” anyway) below the T-line (8ema) among the three major indices. However, T2122 still shows us well inside the oversold reversal zone. The Fed Minutes are the big news of the day, but it seems unlikely that we will hear anything that we don’t know already (hikes will continue with a preference to stay at a quarter percent hike…remember, the meeting took place before the hot January Payrolls and CPI reports came out). As of this morning, we still have 79% of the Fed Futures bets on a quarter-percent hike while 21% are looking for a half-percent hike in March. All three major indices also have potential support levels not too far below. However, the trend (and momentum as of Tuesday) are bearish in the short term while the basic character of the market has been “chop and thrash back-and-forth” in recent weeks. So, continue to show some caution.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, markets gapped lower at the open (down 0.54% on the SPY, down 0.49% on the DIA, and down 0.75% in the QQQ), following through on Thursday afternoon’s selloff.  From there, all three major indices bobbed sideways below the open until about 2:15 pm.  At that point, a late-day rally saw the DIA cross the gap and turn green while the SPY and QQQ rallied back up above the open (into the gap) with all three going out near their highs.  This action gave us a gap-down Doji in the QQQ, a gap-down, white-bodied Hammer in the SPY, and a gap-down, white-bodied candle with a small lower wick in the DIA.  All three indices closed below their T-lines and the DIA retested and closed above its 50sma.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the red as Energy (-2.97%) led the way lower and Communications Services (+1.12%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 0.24%, the DIA was up 0.25%, and QQQ was down 0.71%.  The VXX was flat at 11.67 and T2122 fell a bit more in the midrange to 44.71.  10-year bond yields fell significantly to 3.817% and Oil (WTI) is down 2.76% to $76.32 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a gap lower met with volatile indecision.  This resolved into a bearish push to end the day.  Again, this all happened on slightly less-than-average volume.

In economic news Friday, the January Export Price Index came in far higher than expected at +0.8% (compared to a forecast of -0.2% and the December reading of -3.2%).  Meanwhile, the January Import Price Index came in just as expected at -0.2% (versus a forecast of -0.2% and a December value of -0.1%).   Together, these indicate that the US was passing inflated prices on the rest of the world, while the price of our imported goods fell slightly.  Elsewhere, two Fed speakers made headlines Friday.  Fed Governor Bowman said “I think there’s a long way to go before we reach our 2% inflation objective and I think we’ll have to continue to raise the federal funds rate until we see a lot more progress on that,” while addressing bankers in Nashville.  She also said, “We were seeing some progress in lowering inflation at the end of last year, but some of the data that we’re seeing early this year is not tracking with consistently lowering inflation in a way that I would like to see.”  In a separate event, Richmond Fed President Barkin said the Fed still needs to raise interest rates higher but noted that he prefers to stick with slower, quarter-percent hikes.  Barkin said, “I am not taking as much signal from the data that we’ve gotten recently on the demand side as you might if you start to see it for multiple months”.

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In stock news, Reuters reported Friday that MSFT is already in talks with ad agencies on how it plans to incorporate paid links (ads) in the AI responses generated by the new ChatGPT-enabled Bing (which is already in beta release).  Unnamed sources said that in addition, the AI-generated results will be more prominent (above) traditional search ads.  Then after the close, the US Navy awarded LMT a $2 billion contract for hypersonic missile systems.  Meanwhile, after hours a report circulated saying that TSLA is now considering buying metals (lithium) miner SGML. (SGML spiked in after-hours trade.)  Over the weekend, META took a page out of the Twitter playbook and launched new subscription services for Instagram and FaceBook where a user buys a blue badge to mark them as “verified.”  META is charging more than Twitter has (so far) for their badge at $12 on web and $15 on mobile (compared to Twitter’s $8 and $11 respectively).  In addition to the supposed prestige of having the badge, META is promising greater “visibility and reach” for verified user’s posts, suggesting that their algorithm will treat verified users similar to ad buyers (promoting their posts over those from second-class users).  Elsewhere, over the weekend Fortune reported that an online retailer named Temu (owned by US-listed Chinese online retailer PDD) has become the most downloaded shopping app in the US.  During Q4, the Temu app was installed more than AMZN, WMT, TGT, or any other shopping app.  Finally, UNP said on Monday that it has reached an agreement with two unions and will begin providing 2,100 of its workers with up to four paid sick days per year.

In stock legal and regulatory news, BDX convinced a US appeals court to reinstate three patents related to its medical injection device (Powerport).  Elsewhere, the FDA granted accelerated approval to TVTX for their kidney disease drug IgAN.  At the same time, the FDA also approved the APLS drug Syfovre (and macular degeneration drug).  Meanwhile, a group of US Senators and Congressmen asked that the Surface Transportation Board delay a decision on a proposed merger of CP with KSU until after a Chicago-region impact assessment has been completed.  On Saturday, Reuters reported that US Treasury Dept. sanctions authority has begun an investigation of US-listed, Austrian bank RAIFF over its business related to Russia and whether it is being used to skirt sanctions.  Later on Saturday, the FDA announced that PEP is recalling 300,000 bottles of SBUX chilled Frappuccino drinks after glass chips were found in some bottles.  On Sunday, the NHTSA added another deadly crash to its TSLA probe after a vehicle slammed into a fire truck on a California interstate Saturday, killing the driver, apparently while using the TSLA “Full Self-Driving” feature.  Finally, the US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments today in a case that challenges social media and the Internet as we know it.  The case will determine whether websites and social media companies are liable for everything posted (by the public) on their sites.  META and GOOGL are the most obviously impacted. However, every website will be affected by the ruling on this difficult subject.

In energy news, Friday was another down day (and week) for Natural Gas.  The March front-month Natty contract closed down 4.8% to $2.2750/mmBtu after hitting a 2.5-year low earlier in the session.  With the sole exception of the prior week, the Natty has closed lower every week since the beginning of December.  It has lost more than 65% in the process.  Meanwhile, Oil (WTI) also ended Friday down 4.2% on the week.  Oil analysts say that “rate hike jitters” have returned with vengeance. In addition, the oil traders are now also fearing the legally-mandated sale of 26 million more barrels of oil from the US Strategic Reserve hitting the market in the coming weeks/months.  Finally, Bloomberg reported Friday that a record 311 mid-range tanker ships have recently been seen sailing without cargo or listed destination near Russia.  (This is compared to an average of 14 such ships at any given time in the prior year.)  The shift implies a new “shadow fleet” has been formed to help Russia avoid sanctions and keep shipping hundreds of thousands of barrels of diesel and gasoline per day.  In addition, the removal of those ships from the global market has caused the cost of fuel tankers to skyrocket for regular routes such as those feeding Europe and the US East Coast.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves.  Hong Kong (-1.71%), Thailand (+0.66%), and Shanghai (+0.49%) were the exception to that rule with all other exchanges in the region moving only fractionally in either direction.  In Europe, we see the bourses leaning to the red side at midday.  The FTSE (-0.20%), DAX (-0.43%), and CAC (-0.35%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  However, Russia (+1.51%) is an outlier as they responded to President Biden’s surprise visit to Ukraine by dropping out of a nuclear arms treaty and vowing to keep pushing in their war of conquest against Ukraine.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.89% open, the SPY is implying a -0.84% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.08% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are spiking again to 3.882% and Oil (WTI) is up just under 1% to $77.06/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday are limited to Mfg. PMI, S&P Global PMI, and Services PMI (all three at 9:45 am), and January Existing Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARNC, CEQP, DAN, ELAN, EXPD, FLR, HD, HUN, IR, JBT, JELD, LGIH, LECO, LPX, MDT, MIDD, TAP, NMM, PEG, TECK, TPH, TRN, WMT, WLK, and WLKP before the opening bell.  Then after the close, ALIT, AGR, BXC, BCC, CZR, CWH, CHK, COIN, CSGP, CW, CVI, FANG, ESI, EQX, EXAS, FLS, GFL, IAA, IOSP, KEYS, LZB, MTDR, PANW, PSA, O, SBAC, TOL, RIG, UNVR, and WSC report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday the FOMC Minutes are released, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report and Fed member Williams speaks.  On Thursday, we get Q4 GSP, Q4 GDP Price Index, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories.  Finally, on Friday, the January PCE Price Index, January Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and January New Home Sales are reported.

In terms of earnings later in the week, on Wednesday, we hear from ALLE, BIDU, BLCO, BCO, CRL, CSTM, CRVN, GRMN, GIL, IBP, IQ, NI, OSTK, PRG, SBGI, TRGP, TJX, TNL, UTHR, VRT, WWW, ATUS, ANSS, APA, BTG, CPE, CAKE, CHRD, CDE, FIX, CTRA, CCRN, DVA, EBAY, ETSY, EXR, GSM, FNF, ICLR, LBTYA, VAC, DOOR, MATV, MOS, MYRG, NTAP, NVDA, OPAD, OGS, OUT, PAGS, PARR, PK, PDCE, PXD, PR, RXT, RIO, RYI, SNBR, SM, STN, SUI, RUN, TDOC, VMI, and WES.  Then Thursday, BABA, AMR, AEP, AMT, HOUS, AMBP, AAWW, BBWI, BHC, CBRE, CQP, LNG, COMM, DPZ, DTE, EME, AG, FCN, GPC, GFI, IRM, KDP, LKQ, MRNA, MODV, NTES, NEM, NICE, NOMD, OPCH, PZZA, PCG, PRMW, PWR, RCII, SPTN, SRCL, FTI, TFX, BLD, TAC, VIPS, W, YETI, ACCO, ATSG, ACA, ADSK, BALY, BECN, SQ, BKNG, BWXT, CVNA, CE, CGAU, CENX, CHE, CWK, EIX, ERIE, FTCH, FND, INTU, LYV, MTZ, MELI, OII, ZEUS, OPEN, PBA, PRI, RHP, SEM, SWN, VICI, WBD, and INT report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from CM, GTLS, CNK, EOG, EVRG, FMX, FYBR, GTN, DINO, IEP, LAMR, and CRC.

So far this morning, WMT, MDT, TAP, DDS, IR, JELD, TPH, ELAN, and MIDD have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HD, ARNC, CEQP, LPX, and JBT have all reported misses on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line.  On the other side, HUN and DAN both beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, WLK, FLR, and LGIH missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MDT raised forward guidance,  However, WMT, HD, TAP, DAN, TPH, ELAN, and TRN all lowered their own forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like the bears are following through to the downside again this morning. Perhaps this is a reaction to HD’s mixed report and both WMT and HD lowering guidance (HD also raised the wages of its hourly workers to the tune of $1 billion). I’m sure that a renewed lack of certainty about the Fed’s March rate action is not helping. (As of this morning, 79% of the Fed Futures bets are on a quarter-percent hike while 21% are looking for a half-percent hike in March.) The DIA is retesting its 50sma at the moment and it looks like the SPY may be headed toward the same retest soon. All three major indices are below their T-lines and the short-term trends are bearish. However, all three also have potential support levels not far below. Continue to be cautious about intraday reversals as we have seen recently.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets made a big gap lower at the open Thursday (down 1.27% in the SPY, down 0.91% in the DIA, and down 1.58% in the QQQ).  However, within half of an hour, this began turning into a bear trap as a long, slow, steady rally started at 10 am.  This rally had faded most of the gap by 12:50 pm and, from there, the indices ground sideways in a tight range until 2:45 pm.  At that point, Fed member Bullard spoke and put a half percent hike in March back on the table.  The bears immediately stepped in to start a strong selloff that has lasted right into the close, taking us out on the lows.  This action gave us gap-down, black, Inverted Hammers with all three major indices crossing back below their T-line (8ema) after a retest.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red as Technology (-1.97%) led the way lower and Communications Services (-0.20%) held up better than the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was down 1.38%, the DIA was down 1.25%, and QQQ was down 1.88%.  The VXX has gained 5.06% to 11.63 and T2122 fell a bit more in the midrange to 57.63.  10-year bond yields spiked again, this time to 3.869% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.57% to $78.14 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a gap lower met with volatile indecision.  This resolved into a bearish push to end the day.  Again, this all happened on slightly less-than-average volume.

In economic news, the big story on Thursday was a much hotter than expected Jan. PPI number, which came in at +0.7% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% and far worse than the December reading of -0.2%).  At the same time, January Building Permits came in slightly lower than expected at 1.339 million (versus the forecast of 1.350 million but better than the December number of 1.337 million).  January Housing Starts also came in below what was predicted at 1.309 million (compared to the forecast of 1.360 million and the December value of 1.371 million).  On the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, they were better than expected at 194k (versus the forecast of 200k and also slightly better than last week’s 195k).  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index came in much worse than expected at -24.3 (compared to a forecast of -7.4 and also much worse than the January value of -8.9).  In addition to those reports, we also heard from two Fed non-voting officials.  Cleveland Fed President Mester said (at the February 1 meeting, before the two recent hot inflation numbers) “I saw a compelling economic case for a 50-basis-point increase, which would have brought the top of the target range to 5%.”  (In other words, she did not think the voters were being aggressive enough.)  Later on, St. Louis Fed President Bullard “Further Federal Reserve rate increases are needed to lock in disinflation.”  He kept the idea of a 50-basis-point hike on the table.  However, uncharacteristically for the uber-hawk Bullard, he also said “in broad macro terms it probably does not make too much difference (how fast the Fed moves from here).”

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In stock news, an MS survey of the 80 main parts suppliers to the aerospace industry came out Thursday.  The report showed that those suppliers likely cannot support the production hikes recently announced by both BA and EADSY (Airbus).  Elsewhere, NSC took heavy public and media heat on Thursday for failing to show up at a town hall held related to the NSC train derailment and chemical spill in Eastern Ohio.  (The NSC representatives said they did not attend because they feared for their safety in the face of nearly 5,000 local residents.)  Meanwhile, in good economic news, GM CEO Barra told a conference Thursday that her company is seeing no sign of any slowing demand for cars.  She also said, “we still have very good confidence in the market.”  Then, after the close, BP announced it is acquiring TA for $1.3 billion at a price of $86/share. 

In stock legal and regulatory news, the NHTSA announced TSLA is recalling 363,000 cars due to its “Full Self Driving” system.  In response, TSLA CEO Musk took to Twitter to complain the term “recall” to describe the situation was “anachronistic and just flat wrong.”  Meanwhile, a judge from the NLRB found that XOM had been advised by its negotiators that it would need to lock out refinery workers in Texas in order to achieve its goal of taking away seniority-based job protections.  The judge had previously ruled the company needed to pay millions in back pay to the 650 workers it locked out for 10 months in 2021.  Elsewhere, in a Delaware court, FOX argued Thursday that Dominion Voting Systems cannot prove its $1.6 billion in defamation damages.  This filing came in response to Dominion’s request for a summary judgment in their favor based on communications and depositions by FOX executives and on-air talent.  Later, after the close, it was announced that ALK lost a $160 trademark dispute with Virgin Airlines.  ALK intends to appeal the judge’s ruling.

In energy news, the EIA Natural Gas Report showed that inventories are 17% higher than they were a year ago.  This came after a smaller-than-expected draw for the week of 100 billion cubic feet (less than half of the prior week’s consumption).  The March front-month Natty contract settled down 3.3% to $2.3890/mmBtu.  In other Natural Gas news, after the close, Reuters reported at least three new US LNG export plants are expected to be approved by banks (financiers) this year.  The most likely candidates are projects from SRE, ET, and NEXT.  SRE said in January it has already sold all of the capacity of the new plant.  NEXT has signed deals for 64% of its new project’s capacity (with pending deals that would take that number to 87%).  ET hasn’t disclosed how much of its new plant capacity has been sold.  However, it is worth noting that even if approved today, it can take up to 4 years to build and get regulatory approval to bring a new LNG production and export terminal online.

After the close, AMAT, ED, AMN, DASH, ATR, RDFN, AL, DBX, DKNG, BFAM, and FBIN all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, TDS, USM, AEM, and COLD all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DLR, AEL, TXRH, MERC, and GLOB all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, BIO and IAG reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that AMN, COLD, RDFN, DBX, and HUBS all raised their forward guidance.  However, DLR, BFAM, and FBIN lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board.  Only Singapore (+0.52%) managed to stay green as Shenzhen (-1.61%), Hong Kong (-1.28%), and South Korea (-0.98%) led the region lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a more mixed picture but the bourses are still leaning to the downside at midday.  The FTSE (-0.26%), DAX (-0.94%), and CAC (-0.65%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade with only Russia (+0.56%) and Greece (+0.64%) appreciably in the green.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.49% open, the SPY is implying a -0.70% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.90% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up to 3.875% and Oil (WTI) is plunging, now down 3.5% to $75.71/barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL before the opening bell.  There are no reports scheduled for after the close.  

So far this morning, DE, AN, NWG, MD, and CRBG have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CNP and ACDVF missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ASIX reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.  (PPL and AXL report later in the morning.)  It is worth noting that DE raised its forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, American and Chinese officials (perhaps including Sec. of State Blinken) will be meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference that starts today. Analysts believe this will smooth over the relations and let the two sides set ground rules for surveillance overflights which have always occurred but then recently became a hyped story due to the Chinese Balloon a couple of weeks back. On the opposite side of the China topic, the country’s most influential financier (leading funder of tech companies) Bao Fan has disappeared and this is unnerving Chinese business leaders. It raises concerns on whether President Xi Jingping’s crackdown of private business has finished (as had been thought once he was elected to a third term). The end result is a bit of pessimism related to post-COVID recovery in China amidst fear of making headlines with new projects or of becoming too successful.

With that background, it looks like the bears are following through on what I’ll call the “Bullard Bear Turn” from yesterday afternoon. It is unlikely that Import/Export Prices change that direction. However, we did have some generally good earnings, including a “beat and raise” by DE this morning. So, there is a chance for a premarket reversal. All three major indices are now below their T-line (8ema), retesting their 17ema, and DIA is back down retesting its 50sma in the premarket action. Continue to be cautious about intraday reversals as we have seen the last few days. It would not take much for the bulls to realize Mester and Bullard are not voters this year and all the voters that have spoken continue to imply a quarter-point hike is the correct policy for the FOMC. Finally, remember its Friday…payday…ahead of a three-day weekend. So, take some profits and prepare for the long weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Thursday, markets gapped lower at the open (down 0.55% in the SPY, down 0.46% in the DIA, and down 0.55% in the QQQ).  After a volatile first half hour, which saw the QQQ recross the gap twice, all three major averages settled down into a slow, protracted rally until 2:20 pm.  The next hour saw a modest pullback.  However, a strong rally the last 30 minutes of the day took all three major indices out on their highs.  This action gave us white-bodied, gap-down Marubozu-type candles in all three indices.  They all held above their T-lines (8ema) and the QQQ is starting to look like a J-hook in the making.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green as Technology (+1.29%) led the way higher and Energy (-1.21%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was up 0.34%, the DIA was up 0.14%, and QQQ was up 0.77%.  The VXX lost 2% to 11.07 and T2122 fell just a bit and remains just outside of the overbought territory at 77.22.  10-year bond yields spiked again, this time to 3.795% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.59% to $78.59 per barrel.  So, on the day, we’ve seen a bear trap open that turned into a slow, steady rally the rest of the day.  Overall, the trend remains bullish and volume remains low.

In economic news, the New York Fed Empire State Mfg. Index came in better than expected at -5.80 (compared to a forecast of -18.00 and a January reading of -32.90).  Meanwhile, January Retail Sales also beat expectations, coming in at +3.0% (versus the forecast of +1.8% and the December value of -1.1%).  At the same time, January Industrial Production came in worst than expected at dead flat (compared to the forecast of +0.5% but still better than the December reading of -1.0%).  December Business Inventories reported as expected at +0.3% (right on the forecast and matching the reading from November).  However, December Retail Inventories grew more than expected at +0.4% (versus a forecast of +0.3% and November reading of -0.3%) Later, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report was even worse than had been signaled by the Tuesday API report.  EIA showed an inventory build of 16.283 million barrels of crude (compared to a forecasted increase of just 1.166 million barrels and worse than the prior week’s 2.423-million-barrel build).

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In stock news, the CFO of F told a conference that they identified ways to improve its cost by over $2.5 billion in 2023 through better management of production schedules as well as F expecting a drop in commodity prices. In other F news, the company said its F-150 Lightning production will remain halted through at least next week as they continue investigating “battery issues.”  Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the CEO of TX is considering northern Mexico for the location of a new $2.2 billion steel plant.  At the same time, TSLA CEO Elon Musk said he will unveil the third part of his “Master Plan” for the company on March 1.  This will include bold goals for the growth of the electric car company.  Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal reported that BLCO is set to name a new CEO (Brent Saunders, who was also previously BLCO CEO) as of March 6.  And finally, STLA announced a recall of 340,000 diesel Dodge Ram pickup trucks over electrical connector failures following six fires.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the US Dept. of Justice told a Delaware court that the US government should face a patent lawsuit over COVID-19 rather than MRNA.  ABUS had filed the lawsuit against MRNA for patent infringement.  Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Justice Department has sped up its investigation into AAPL antitrust complaints.  Elsewhere, the EPA set a new soot pollution rule and Reuters reports the KMI and BRKA (for subsidiary PacifiCorp) both sent letters to the EPA warning of the costs they would incur complying.  At the same time, the NTSB announced it is opening an investigation into a runway incursion in Honolulu Hawaii where a UAL 777 crossed a runway as a Cessna 208B was landing.  Finally, after hours, FDA advisors unanimously voted in favor of allowing the EBS anti-overdose drug Narcan to be sold over the counter nationwide.  The FDA is expected to release its final decision on March 29, but it almost always follows unanimous recommendations from the advisory panel.

In energy news, as reported above, oil prices closed down a little despite a massive oil inventory build.  This EIA report was the fourth largest oil inventory build ever reported and almost 10 times the forecasted inventory increase.  In addition, the US Dollar also climbed to a new 6-week high.  So, the disconnect between WTI prices and the news is perplexing.  In related news, US refineries are running at 86% of capacity when they would normally be over 90%.  As a result, US gasoline inventories rose 2.317 million barrels which was not quite twice the 1.543 million barrels forecasted.  However, distillate (diesel and heating oil) stockpiles fell for the first time in five weeks, dropping 1.285 million barrels compared to an expected build of 0.447 million barrels.

After the close, CSCO, SHOP, RSG, AR, EQIX, WCN, AEE, RUSHA, WELL, HST, AIG, AWK, ROKU, TWLO, ALSN, ROL, INVH, NEX, CPA, KGC, QDEL, RGLD, Z, SPWR, and SGEN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, CYH, CF, MRO, ALB, AMED, NUS, SUM, TNET, and RNG all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, EQT, SNPS, NTR, and AJRD all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ET, REZI, and TROX missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CSCO, RSG, EQIX, WCN, and ALSN all raised their forward guidance.  However, NTR, WELL, HST, NUS, AMED, and SGEN all lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but mostly green.  Shenzhen (-1.30%), Shanghai (-0.96%), and Malaysia (-0.26%) were the only red. Meanwhile, South Korea (+1.96%), Hong Kong (+0.84%), and Australia (+0.79%) led the larger group of exchanges to the upside.  In Europe, with the exceptions of Greece (-0.18%) and Switzerland (-0.16%) the rest of the region is green at midday.  The FTSE (+0.19%), DAX (+0.46%), and CAC (+0.97%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a slightly red start to the day ahead of data.  The DIA implies a -0.17% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.33% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at 3.795% and Oil (WTI) is also flat at $78.68/barrel in early trading.  

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include January Building Permits, January PPI, January Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), and a couple Fed speakers (Mester at 8:45 am, Bullard at 1:30 pm, and Mester again at 6 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ARCH, BLMN, CVE, CEG, CROX, CNB, ETR, EPAM, FOCS, GGR, GVA, HAS, HSIC, H KBR, KELYA, LH, NSRGY, NGD, NMRK, DNOW, NRG, OGN, PARA, PBF, POOL, POR, RCM, RS, STNG, SO, SCL, SYNH, TOST, USFD, VC, VNT, VMC, WSO, WST, WE, and ZBRA before the opening bell.  Then after the close, AEM, AL, AEL, COLD, AMN, AMAT, ATR, BIO, BFAM, ED, CLR, DASH, DKNG, DBX, FBIN, GLOB, IAG, TDS, TXRH, USM, and VALE report.   

In economic news later this week, on Friday, January Import Price Index and January Export Price Index are reported.  In terms of earnings later in the week, on Friday, ASIX, AMCX, AXL, AN, CNP, CRBG, DE, MD, and PPL report.

So far this morning, SO, RS, HSIC, ETR, ZBRA, SYNH, EPAM, H, ARCH, VNT, GVA, POR, CROX, DNOW, and DDOG have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, EADSY, REPYY, USFD, LH, KBR, HAS, BLMN, WST, and SCL have all reported missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, CVE, KELYA, VC, TOST, RCM, STNG, CEG, and PARA all beat on revenue while missing on the earnings line.  Unfortunately, VMC, OGN, POOL, DNB, and WE all missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that HSIC, RS, SYNH, BLMN, VC, GVA, and CROX all raised their forward guidance.  However, HAS, ZBRA, EPAM, and WE all lowered forward guidance.

In late-breaking news, ASML (Dutch, chip fab lithography leader) reported that a China-based employee stole data from one of its internal software systems used to store technical information about chip-making machinery.  This is the second breach of ASML linked to China in the last year and comes very shortly after ASML agreed to the announcement of President Biden’s ban on selling chip-making technologies to China.  TSLA fired dozens of workers at its Buffalo NY plant one day after workers at the facility they plan to unionize.  The Workers United union has filed a complaint with the NLRB over the obvious retaliation and effort to discourage organizing.

With that background, it looks like markets are flat to modestly lower in pre-open trading. However, all three major indices remain above their T-line (8ema) in an uptrend (although the DIA certainly be called more of a consolidation than a bullish trend). So, apparently, traders are waiting on more clues from the 8:30 am data dump before pushing hard in either direction. We do have generally good earnings as a tailwind, especially from CSCO last night. However, the PPI, Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed reports are likely to call the tune early. Beware of volatility early regardless of which way the post-data, premarket knee-jerk goes. The good news is that the volatility around PPI is likely to be less than that which surrounded CPI. Nonetheless, be cautious and remember that in the long run, your fortune will not be made in the first 30 minutes of the trading day.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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