On Wednesday, markets started out little changed.  SPY opened 0.04% lower, DIA opened 0.09% higher, and QQQ opened down 0.14%.  From there all three major index ETFs rallied the first hour and then wobbled sideways until 2 p.m.  Then the Fed news started coming out and all three sold off sharply and continuously until a tiny bounce at the end of the day.  This action gave us huge black candles and what could be called Bearish Trader’s Best Friend in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ. SPY and QQQ both crossed below their T-line (8ema), with SPY and DIA both also crossing below their 50sma.  For DIA, this was a 10^th consecutive black candle and lower close in the DIA.  That is the first time this has happened since 1974.  This all took place on well-above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 of the sectors were in the red as Consumer Cyclical (-3.80%) led the way lower.  (However, half the sectors lost more than 3%.)  On the other side, it was Tuesday’s big loser, Communications Service (-1.79%) held up better than any of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 2.98%, DIA lost 2.61%, and QQQ lost 3.61%. VXX spiked 16.78% to close at 51.72 and T2122 fell all the way down to the bottom of its oversold territory to close at 0.82. On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields spiked higher to close down to 4.504% while Oil (WTI) was flat to close at $70.00 per barrel.  So, on Wednesday, the market was all about the Fed…and the market was not pleased with what it heard (see below).  What had started as a modestly bullish day after the modest morning rally turned into a bloodbath the last two hours of the day. 

The major economic news scheduled Wednesday included Preliminary Nov. Building Permits, which came in higher than expected at 1.505 million (compared to a forecast of 1.430 million and an October reading of 1.419 million). At the same time, Q3 Current Account was down again to -$310.90 billion (versus a forecast of -$286.0 billion and a Q2 -$275.0 billion number).  Meanwhile, Nov. Housing Starts were down coming in at 1.289 million (compared to the 1.350 million forecast and October’s 1.312 million value).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Inventories showed a smaller-than-predicted drawdown of 0.934 million barrels (versus a forecasted 1.600-million-barrel drawdown and the prior week’s 1.425-million-barrel draw).  Then at 2 p.m., the Fed Interest Rate Decision was a quarter-point cut as anticipated, down to 4.50% compared to the previous 4.75%.  At the same time, Fed Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection was stable at 4.4% while the Q4 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection spiked half a percent to 3.9% (up from the prior quarter’s 3.4%).  Looking further out, the Fed Q4 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection also rose to 3.4% (from the previous value of 2.9%) while the Q4 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection rose less to 3.1% (compared to the previous 2.9% value).  Far out on the horizon, the Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection rose a tick to 3.0% (versus the previous quarter’s 2.9% forecast).

In Fed news, as mentioned, the FOMC cut rates a quarter percent as the market had expected.  However, at the same time as the rate-cut announcement, updates to the Fed “Dot Plots” (average of FOMC member interest rate forecasts) showed that they now only expect two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, with Fed Funds ending 2025 at 4.00%.  It also showed they expect 2024 inflation (PCE inflation rate) to come in at 2.4% and 2025 to ends at 2.5%.  Later, in his press conference, Fed Chair Powell said it is too soon to tell what the new Trump Administration will do to the economy.  When questioned about it, Powell said, “it’s very premature to make any kind of conclusions. We don’t know what will be tariffed, from what countries, for how long, in what size …We need to take our time, not rush and see what the new president delivers.” (Trump campaigned on heavy tariffs, which would be hugely inflationary as well as being economically restrictive.  On the other hand, he also campaigned on more tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which would theoretically lead to economic expansion…but lead to an increased deficit.  However, Trump is not known for telling the truth or being consistent. So, time will tell.)  Powell went on to say, “From this point forward it’s appropriate to move forward cautiously and look for progress on inflation … from now we are in place where the risks are in balance.”

After the close, MLKN and SCS reported beats on both the revenue and earnings line.  Meanwhile, MU missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, WS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, LEN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly red in sympathy with the US.  Shenzhen (+0.61%) was the only appreciable gainer (Malaysia at +0.03% did also hang onto green).  On the other side, South Korea (-1.95%), Australia (-1.70%), and Thailand (-1.53%) led the broad-based losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday.  Only Portugal (+0.33%) is in the green as 13 of the 14 bourses are red at midday.  The CAC (-1.54%), DAX (-1.22%), and FTSE (-1.39%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  Meanwhile, in the US, at of 7 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest rebound to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.32% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.23% open at this early hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields continue to run higher at 4.534% while Oil (WTI) is off 0.21% to $70.43 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), Nov. Existing Home Sales and Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index (both at 10 a.m.), Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 p.m.), and the Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, and PAYX.  Then, after the market, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.

So far this morning, ACN beat on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, LW missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market seems to be trying to bounce off of the huge drops on Thursday.  However, this is a very indecisive bounce with all three major index ETFs giving a premarket modest gap up, but then printing mostly wicks and little body in the early session candles. After Thursday, all three are far below their T-line (8ema).  That being the case, the short-term trend is bearish. However, looking further out, the mid-term and longer-term trends remain bullish.  In terms of extension, SPY and especially DIA are stretched below their T-line at this point. (Having been the strongest prior to Thursday’s move, QQQ is not quite as stretched.) Meanwhile, T2122 is deep in its oversold territory.  (Less than a point from that indicator’s theoretical oversold limit.) So, the Bulls certainly have room to run today. However, coming off the Fed reduction in predicted future cuts, the Bears have the momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning. TSLA (+2.43%) and NVDA (+1.92%) are leading the group higher.  On the other end, AAPL (-0.21%) is the laggard in the bounce. Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 3 times over NVDA (with the next closest 8 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA). 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped lower on Tuesday.  SPY gapped down 0.42%, DIA gapped down 0.49%, and QQQ gapped down 0.33%.  From there, all three major index ETFs meandered around their opening level, but DIA was the weakest, never quite getting back to the open in the afternoon.  (It is worth noting this was DIA’s nineth-consecutive black, candle and down day…its worst streak since 1978.)  This action gave us Doji-like, indecisive candles in all three.  QQQ was the best-looking candle, printing a black, Spinning Top of Doji-like candle that was also a Bearish Harami (inside day).  At the same time, SPY gapped down below its T-line (8ema) and retested and failed that level on the way to printing a Doji.  Finally, DIA made a big gap-down, black-bodied Spinning Top candle that retested its 50sma and closed above.

On the day, eight of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Communications Services (-1.13%) and Financial Services (-1.07%) leading the way lower.  On the other side, Healthcare (+0.16%) held up better than any of the other sectors.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.41%, DIA lost 0.65%, and QQQ lost 0.44%.  VXX climbed 2.48% to close at 44.29 and T2122 dropped back into the bottom of its oversold territory to close at 6.09.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields reversed after an overnight move higher to close down to 4.397% while Oil (WTI) dropped 0.74% to close at $70.19 per barrel.  So, on Tuesday, the market was all about the open. After that start, all three major index ETFs just meandered in waves back-and-forth across the opening level.  This all happened on not far below-average volume in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included Nov. Month-on-Month Core Retail Sales, which came in flat at +0.2% (compared to a +0.4% forecast but in-line with October’s +0.2% reading). On the headline side, Nov. Month-on-Month Retail Sales were up +0.7% (higher than the +0.6% forecast and October’s +0.5% number).  Later, the Nov. Month-on-Month Industrial Production was up but still down at -0.1% (versus the +0.3% forecast but better than October’s -0.4% value).  On an annualized basis, Nov. Year-on-Year Industrial Production were down at -0.90% (compared to a forecasted +0.10% and worse than October’s -0.45% reading).  Later, Oct. Business Inventories were up +0.1% (versus the forecasted +0.2% and September’s flat 0.0%).  At the same time, Oct. Retail Inventories were steady at +0.1% (compared to the forecast and prior month value of +0.1%).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed an unexpectedly large 4.700-million-barrel drawdown (versus a forecasted 1.850-million-barrel drawdown and the previous week’s 0.499-million-barrel inventory build).

In Fed news, the Fed quiet period ends Wednesday with the rate decision, statement, and Fed Chair Press Conference.  So, no Fed news Tuesday.

After the close, HEI reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the green side with seven of the 12 exchanges above break-even while another was unchanged.  South Korea (+1.12%) was by far the biggest mover and gainer.  On the other side, Japan (-0.72%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the market outlook is brighter with 12 of the 14 bourses in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.27%), DAX (+0.29%), and FTSE (+0.15%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are now pointing to a moderate gap up to start the morning.  The DIA implies a +0.30% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are back up to 4.413% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.86% to $70.68 per barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include Preliminary Nov. Building Permits, Q3 Current Account, and Nov. Housing Starts (all at 8:30 a.m.), EIA Weekly Crude Inventories (10:30 a.m.), Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection (all at 2 p.m.), and the FOMC Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m.).  However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABM, BIRK, GIS, JBL, and TTC.   Then, after the market, LEN, MU, MLKN, SCS, and WS report.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, Nov. Existing Home Sales, Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, PAYX, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.

So far this morning, AMTM beat on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market seems bullish so far in the premarket early session as more than 95% of Fed Fund Futures trades are expecting a quarter-point cut this afternoon.  All three major index ETFs gapped up to open the premarket and have followed through with white-bodied candles to this point.  SPY has crossed back above its T-line (8ema) and QQQ is headed back toward its all-time high.  With two of the three above their T-line and one below its 8ema, the short-term trend has to be seen as weakly bullish.  However, further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish with index ETFs sitting near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, yesterday’s pullback helped the T-line make up some ground on the QQQ and this morning’s premarket move higher is helping DIA relieve some of its stretch to the downside.  So, none of them are overly extended from the 8ema.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is deep in its oversold territory.  So, the Bulls have more room to run today. In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning. NVDA (+2.76%) is far and away the leader of the group.  On the other end, TSLA (-1.94%) is the biggest loser by 1.80%.  Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 1.75 times over NVDA (with the next closest 15 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA). 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

DIA diverged from the broader index ETFs Monday.  SPY gapped up 0.25%, DIA opened 0.08% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.47%. At that point, SPY and QQQ both followed through with a long, slow, but steady rally.  This went on until 3:30 p.m. when both SPY and QQQ sold off the last half hour.  For its part, after opening flat, DIA just chopped sideways for 90 minutes and then sold off for an hour before grinding to the side until 3:30 p.m.  During that last 30 minutes, it too sold off sharply. This action gave us three divergent candles in the major index ETFs.  The QQQ was clearly the bullish leader, gapping higher and then printing a large white-body candle with a small upper wick.  Some would even call it a Trader’s Best Friend signal.  Meanwhile, SPY gave us a gap-up, white-bodied, Spinning Top that retested, and passed the test of, its T-line (8ema).  Finally, DIA printed a black-body candle with a significant upper wick.

On the day, six of the 10 of the sectors were in the red again as Energy (-2.10%) and Communications Services (-1.78%) were far and away the worst-performing sectors. On the other side, Technology (+1.11%) was way, way out front of the other gaining sectors (by 0.90%).  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.42%, DIA lost 0.23%, and QQQ gained 1.44%.  (In the process, QQQ printed yet another new all-time high and new all-time high close.)  VXX was up 1.69% to close at 43.22 and T2122 climbed, but remained in the top half of its oversold territory to close at 13.11.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields climbed yet again to 4.405% while Oil (WTI) dropped 1.00% to close at $70.58 per barrel.  So, Monday gave us gaps higher with follow-through from the SPY and especially the QQQ.  Meanwhile, DIA continued its selloff, printing an eighth-straight black-bodied candle and lower close.  This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday included the NY Empire State Mfg. Index, which came in sharply lower at +0.20 (compared to a forecast of 6.40 and far below November’s 31.20 reading).  Later, Preliminary December S&P Global Mfg. PMI was down slightly to 48.3 (versus a 49.4 forecast and a November value of 49.7).  At the same time, Preliminary December S&P Services PMI was up at 58.5 (compared to a 55.7 forecast and November’s 56.1 number).  Together, these gave us a Preliminary December S&P Global Composite PMI, which was higher at 56.6 (versus a 55.1 forecast and a November’s 54.9 reading).

In Fed news, we are in the Fed quiet period as the FOMC meeting begins Tuesday. 

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the red side with just one of the 12 exchanges in positive territory.  Thailand (-1.70%), India (-1.35%), and South Korea (-1.29%) led the region lower.  In Europe, the story is shaping up to be very similar.  Only three of the 14 bourses are in the green (barely) at midday.  The CAC (+0.15%), DAX (+0.01%), and FTSE (-0.80%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.35% open, the SPY is implying a -0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.18% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are running higher to 4.436% and Oil (WTI) is down one percent to $70.00 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes Nov. Core Retail Sales and Nov. Retail Sales (both at 8:30 a.m.), Nov. Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), Oct. Business Inventories and Oct. Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to AMTM. Then, after the market, HEI and WOR report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Preliminary No. Building Permits, Q3 Current Account, Nov. Housing Starts, EIA Weekly Crude Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection, and FOMC Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, Nov. Existing Home Sales, Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ABM, BIRK, GIS, JBL, TTC, LEN, MU, MLKN, SCS, and WS report.  On Thursday, we hear from ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, PAYX, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.

So far this morning, AMTM beat on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, the market seems bearish so far in the early session.  All three major index ETFs gapped down to open the premarket, although DIA clearly was most bearish while the others gave up ground grudgingly.  Since that start, all three have printed Doji-type, indecisive candles in the early session.  SPY is retesting its T-line (8ema) from above. Once again, at the moment, SPY and QQQ are above their T-line while DIA remains below its own T-line.  It is worth remembering that SPY and QQQ still sit at or near all-time highs, but DIA has given back 2%-3% since its highs.  With one of the three above its T-line, one right at that 8ema, and one below its T-line again, the short-term trend has to be seen as undecided.  However, further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, as of last night, QQQ was getting stretched above and as of this morning DIA is getting a little stretched below its T-line.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator remains well into its oversold territory.  So, both sides of the market have room to move and its hard to say whether the cliff-diving DIA or the spiking QQQ is more of an indicator.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, nine of the 10 are in red numbers at this point of the morning. NVDA (-1.80%) and AMD (-1.67%) lead the pack lower, while TSLA (+2.60%) sits 2.70% better off than any of the others.  Once again, TSLA is the leader in terms of dollar-volume traded by about 2.25 times over NVDA (with the next closest 12 times less in dollar-volume than NVDA). 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Friday, we saw a bit of a Bull trap.  SPY gapped up 0.29%, DIA opened 0.13% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.74%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs took 20 minutes to get ready before selling off.  SPY sold off recrossing the gap and continuing South self to the lows at 11:15 a.m., and then drifted sideways with a very slight bullish trend, ending up very near the previous close.  DIA recrossed its gap more quickly but did not sell off as far, reaching its lows at 12:25 p.m. and spending most of the day meandering along the lows, never getting that afternoon modest rally.  Meanwhile, QQQ sold off most sharply but stopped at about 11:10 a.m. before starting a long slow rally back up above the open.  This action gave us a black-bodied, large-body Spinning Top candle in the SPY that crossed just back below its T-line (8ema) after having gapped above it.  DIA printed the same black-body, large-body, Spinning Top candle but with a smaller gap up.  It also printed a seventh-consecutive black and down-close candle.  Finally, QQQ gave us a long-legged, technically black-body, Doji that printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the red again as Basic Materials (-1.41%) was far and away the worst-performing sector. On the other side, Technology (+0.15%) held up better than the other sectors and was the only one in the green. Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.01%, DIA lost 0.20%, and QQQ gained 0.77%. VXX was just on the green side of flat to close at 42.50 and T2122 dropped deeper into the oversold territory to close at 7.06.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields climbed yet again to 4.395% while Oil (WTI) climbed 1.51% to close at $71.08 per barrel.  So, once again Friday we saw most of the move happen at the open.  After that there was some reversal, but the afternoon was essentially some form of a sideways grind. This all took place on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday were limited to November Export Price Index, which came in flat at 0.0% (compared to a -0.2% but far better than October’s +1.0% reading).  On the other side, the November Import Price Index was unchanged at +0.1% (versus a forecasted -0.2% but in-line with October’s +0.1% value).

In Fed news, we have started the quiet period ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned toward the red side.  Shenzhen (-1.30%), Hong Kong (-0.88%), and Thailand (-0.83%) paced the nine losers while New Zealand (+0.34%) and Singapore (+0.28%) led the three gainers.  In Europe, 13 of the 14 bourses are in the red at midday.  The CAC (-0.68%), DAX (-0.27%), and FTSE (-0.29%) are leading the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 6 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.29% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are down slightly to 4.381% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.08% to $70.52 per barrel in very early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes NY Empire State Mfg. Index (8:30 a.m.), Preliminary December S&P Global Mfg. PMI, Preliminary December S&P Services PMI, and Preliminary December S&P Global Composite PMI (all at 9:45 a.m.).  However, there are no major earnings reports scheduled either before or after the market.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Nov. Core Retail Sales, Nov. Retail Sales, Nov. Industrial Production, Oct. Business Inventories, Oct. Retail Inventories, and the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, Preliminary No. Building Permits, Q3 Current Account, Nov. Housing Starts, EIA Weekly Crude Inventories, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Statement, Q4 Current Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 1^st Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 2^nd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 3^rd Year Interest Rate Projection, Q4 Longer-Term Interest Rate Projection, and FOMC Chair Press Conference are reported.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q3 Core PCE Price Index, Q3 GDP, Q3 GDP Price Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, Nov. Existing Home Sales, Nov. US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Oct. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, November Core PCE Price Index, Nov. PCE Price Index, Nov. Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from AMTM, HEI, and WOR. Then Wednesday, ABM, BIRK, GIS, JBL, TTC, LEN, MU, MLKN, SCS, and WS report.  On Thursday, we hear from ACN, KMX, CTAS, CAG, DRI, FDS, LW, PAYX, BB, FDX, AVO, NKE, and SCHL.  Finally, on Friday, CCL and WGO report.

With that background, the market seems bullish although divergently so.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket with a modest gap higher. However, they have diverged in action since that point.  SPY has printed a small, white-bodied candle with no wick or Marubozu. At the same time, DIA has printed an uncertain Doji candle inside Thursday’s candle.  Finally, QQQ has given us a larger Marubozu candle and now sits at all-time highs in the early session.  Once again, SPY and QQQ are above their T-line (8ema) while DIA remains below its own T-line.  It is worth remembering that SPY and QQQ still sit at or near all-time highs, but DIA has given back 2%-3% since its highs.  With one of the three above its T-line, one right at that 8ema, and one below its T-line, the short-term trend has to be seen as undecided.  However, looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-lines.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back deep into its oversold territory.  So, while both sides of the market have room to move if they can find momentum, the Bulls have more rope to work with today.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, early, seven of the 10 are in green numbers at this point of the morning. GOOGL (+0.77%) and AMD (+0.57%) pace the winners while NVDA (-0.49%) and NFLX (-0.44%) are the laggards. Once again, TSLA (+0.43%) is leading the dollar-volume traded by about 2.5 times over NVDA with the next closest 8 times less dollar-volume than NVDA. 

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were mostly in a sideways meander on Thursday.  SPY opened down 0.14%, DIA opened dead flat, and QQQ gapped down 0.41%. From there all three major index ETFs ground sideways until 12:20 p.m.  At that point, SPY and QQQ continued in their sideways wobble until 1:30 p.m.  Then they started a slow, steady selloff.  However, at 12:20 p.m. DIA led by beginning its slow steady selloff 70 minutes early.  This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs.  SPY tested and crossed down, barely, its T-line (8ema).  DIA printed its sixth-straight black candle with a lower close. Finally, QQQ printed the smallest-bodied candle that was also a Bearish Harami but remains comfortably above its T-line.  This happened on below-average volume in all three.

On the day, nine of the 10 of the sectors were in the red as Basic Materials (-1.40%) and Healthcare (-1.30%) were out front leading the way lower. On the other side, Consumer Defensive (+0.07%) held up better than the other sectors and was the only one in the green.  Meanwhile, SPY lost 0.52%, DIA lost 0.51%, and QQQ lost 0.65%.  VXX gained 0.81% to close at 42.47 and T2122 dropped back down into its oversold territory to close at 13.95. On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields jumped up to 4.336% while Oil (WTI) fell a third of a percent to close at $70.05 per barrel.  So, Thursday was punctuated by a gap lower in DPY and QQQ and then a modest, but steady, afternoon selloff in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 242k (compared to a forecast of 221k and the prior week’s 225k reading).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were also slightly higher than anticipated at 1,836k (versus the 1,880k forecast and up from the previous week’s 1,871k).  At the same time, Month-on-Month Nov. Core PPI was down as predicted to +0.2% (compared to a 0.2% forecast and down a tick from October’s +0.3% value).  On the headline number, Month-on-Month Nov. PPI was unexpectedly up to +0.4% (versus a +0.2% forecast and the +0.3% October reading). Later, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a very modest increase of $1 billion on the week, climbing to $6.897 trillion.

In Fed news, we have started the Fed quiet period ahead of next week’s meeting. 

After the close, AVGO and COST reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, RH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with five exchanges in green and seven, including the biggest movers, in red.  Shenzhen (-2.23%) Hong Kong (-2.09%), and Shanghai (-2.01%) led the region lower.  In Europe, we see the opposite picture with four of the 14 bourses in red while 10 sit in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.25%), DAX (+0.24%), and FTSE (+0.11%) lead the region modestly higher in early afternoon trade. Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start.  The DIA implies a +0.12% open, the SPY is implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.79% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are up to 4.351% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.71% to $70.53 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday are limited to November Export Price Index and November Import Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled either before or after the market.

With that background, the market seems bullish although divergently so.  All three major index ETFs opened the premarket with a modest gap higher. However, they have diverged in action since that point.  SPY has printed a small, white-bodied candle with no wick or Marubozu. At the same time, DIA has printed an uncertain Doji candle inside Thursday’s candle.  Finally, QQQ has given us a larger Marubozu candle and now sits at all-time highs in the early session.  Once again, SPY and QQQ are above their T-line (8ema) while DIA remains below its own T-line.  It is worth remembering that all three sit at or near all-time highs. However, with only two of the three sitting above their T-line the short-term trend has to be seen as modestly bullish.  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-lines.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back in its oversold territory.  So, while both sides of the market have room to move today if they can find momentum, the Bulls have a bite more rope to work with.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, six of the 10 are in red numbers at this point of the morning. NVDA (+1.38%) and AMD (+1.23%) pace the winners while META (-0.58%) is the laggard. Once again, TSLA (+1.08%) is leading the dollar-volume traded by about 1.5 times over NVDA with the next closest 3.5 times behind NVDA.  Lastly, remember its Friday and time to get your account ready for the weekend.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw the Bulls in charge after CPI numbers they liked.  SPY gapped 0.44% higher, DIA opened just 0.09% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.84%.  From there, SPY and QQQ began a modest rally that lasted until noon before trading sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. For its part, after the flat open, DIA meandered back and forth across that tiny gap, but ended the day one a very modest two-hour selloff.  This action gave us a gap-up Bull Kicker type candle with an upper wick.  SPY crossed back above its T-line (8ema) and closed within pennies of another all-time high close.  Meanwhile, QQQ did give us a Bull Kicker candle with tiny upper wick and printed a new all-time high and new all-time high close.  Finally, DIA, ever the contrarian, gave us a black-bodied candle with upper wick and printed a 5^th consecutive black and down candle.  This all happened on below-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, seven of the 10 of the sectors were in the green as Technology (+1.62%) was way out front leading the market higher. On the other side, Healthcare (-0.67%) was the laggard.  Meanwhile, SPY gained 0.77%, DIA lost 0.27%, and QQQ gained 1.79%.  VXX fell almost another eight-tenths of a percent to close at 42.13 and T2122 climbed out of oversold territory and back into the mid-range to close at 38.62.  On the bond side, 10-Year bond yields climbed to 4.269 while Oil (WTI) popped 2.51% closing at $70.30 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was mostly about the opening gap as traders at least weren’t disappointed by the CPI print.  After that gap up and the modest morning rally, markets just drifted the rest of the day as tech stocks ran higher. TSLA (+5.93%), GOOGL (+5.52%), and NVDA (+3.14) led that charge.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday include Month-on-Month Nov. Core CPI which came in flat as expected at +0.3% (compared to a forecast and Oct. reading of +0.3%).  On an annualized basis, Year-on-Year November Core CPI was also flat as expected at +3.3% (versus the forecast an October value of +3.3%).  On the headline number, Month-on-Month Nov. CPI was up a tick to +0.3% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and October reading of +0.2%).  On the annualized basis, Year-on-Year Nov. CPI was also up a tick to 2.7% (versus a +2.7% forecast and an October value of +2.6%).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a larger than expected drawdown of 1.435 million barrels (compared to a forecasted 1.000-million-barrel drawdown but much less than the prior week’s 5.073-million-barrel draw).  Later, the November Federal Budget Balance came in with a larger-than-predicted deficit of $367.0 billion (versus a -$ 349.0 billion forecast and dramatically higher than October’s -$257.0 billion).

In Fed news, we have started the Fed quiet period ahead of next week’s meeting. 

After the close, ADBE and NDSN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with eight of the 12 exchanges above break-even.  South Korea (+1.62%), Japan (+1.21%), and Hong Kong (+1.20%) paced the gains.  Meanwhile, India (-0.38%) led the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture with nine of the 14 bourses in the green.  The CAC (-0.01%), DAX (+0.03%), and FTSE (+0.13%) lead the region modestly higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:54 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.11% open, the SPY is implying a -0.195 open, and the QQQ implies a -0.39% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year Bond yields are spiking to 4.302% and Oil (WTI) is up a quarter percent to $70.45 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday include Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Nov. Core PPI and Nov. PPI (all at 8:30 p.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to CIEN.  Then, after the close, AVGO, COST, and RH report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, Nov. Export Price Index and Nov. Import Price Index are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, there are no reports scheduled for Friday.

So far this morning, CIEN beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

With that background, it seems stocks are modestly lower in a divergent way ahead of the morning data.  All three major index ETFs have gapped a bit lower to start the premarket.  However, SPY had been flat since, QQQ is giving us a black-bodied candle with no wicks, and DIA is printing a white-bodied candle with no wicks climbing back toward flat.  SPY and QQQ remains above their T-line (8ema) while DIA remains below its own T-line.  It bears repeating that SPY, DIA, and QQQ all still sit at or very near their all-time highs.  However, with two of the three sitting modestly above their T-line the short-term trend has to be seen as bullish now.  Looking further out, obviously the mid-term and longer-term trends also remain bullish sitting at or near those all-time highs.  In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are too stretched from their T-lines.  Meanwhile, the T2122 indicator is back in the bottom half of its mid-range.  So, while both sides of the market have room to move today if they can find momentum.  In terms of the 10 Big Dogs, seven of the 10 are in red numbers at this point of the morning.  NVDA (-0.47%) and META (-0.41%) pace the losses while TSLA (+0.38%) is holding up better than the others.  TSLA is also the leader in dollar-volume traded sitting at a little more than 4 times as much money traded than NVDA.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service