Monday was a bullish, yet mostly sideways day in the market.  SPY gapped up 0.51%, DIA gapped up 0.41%, and QQQ gapped up 0.43%.  From there, all three major index ETFs traded sideways in roughly a half of a percent range.  The SPY and QQQ both had a slight bullish trend to that grind.  Meanwhile, DIA gave us a more volatile chop to the side and had a modest bearish trend to that sideways grind.  A late-day rally took all three out very near their highs of the day.  This action gave us gap-up large white-body candles with small lower wicks in the SPY and QQQ.  Meanwhile, the DIA printed a gap-up, white-body Doji.  All three remain above their T-line (8ema).  This all came on well-below-average volume in all three of those major index ETFs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were again in the green with Technology (+1.55%) once again out front leading the market higher.  Meanwhile, Consumer Defensive (+0.09%) lagged well behind the other sectors.  VXX dropped another 2.66% to close at 12.45 and T2122 jumped up well into the overbought territory at 90.48.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell again to 4.489% and Oil (WTI) gained half a percent to close at $78.55 per barrel.  So, once again Monday, most of the market’s move came at the open.  After a significant gap, the predominate direction of all three major index ETFs was to the side.  Most talking heads seem to think this is chiefly driven by hope for a Fed rate cut soon.  However, it is worth noting that three-fourths of the way through earnings season, five of the six “Magnificent 7” tickers have reported beats (only TSLA has missed, but it missed on both lines).  This leaves only the biggest dog of them all (NVDA) to report on Wednesday.  My point is that for those who believe in those seven tickers driving the market, they’ve gotten a lot of good news recently.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Monday.  

In Fed Consumer Expectations Survey news, on Monday the NY Fed released results of its survey.  The report found that respondents are bracing for higher housing costs again in the next year. On average that group predicts home prices will rise 5.1% (over the next year) which is far above the +2.6% increase they expected one year ago.  However, five years from now, they see home prices only up 2.7% from current.  So, on average the group expects home price inflation and then deflation.  In terms of rental prices, the survey found respondents expect a 9.7% increase in rent on average in the next 12 months.  (That is the second-highest expectation reading in history and up from the +8.2% in early 2023.)  In terms of mortgage rates, the group now expect the average mortgage to be at 8.7% in a year and 9.7% in three years.  (This survey was conducted while the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at Fannie Mae was at 7.22%.)

In Fed speak news, NY Fed President Williams said Monday that the FOMC’s next move is likely to be a cut in rates.  Williams said “Eventually we’ll have rate cuts” but for now monetary policy is in a “very good place.”  Williams did not offer a timetable for when a cut (next move) may take place. He also said the Fed’s shrinking of its Balance Sheet have gone well and have not rocked the boat.  Later, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that up to now the fight on inflation has been on the supply side.  However, to end inflation, the US will need to take a hit on the demand side.  Specifically, Barkin said, “We got a lot of benefit last year on the supply side,” … “I do tend to imagine that we’re going to need a little more edge off of demand to get all the way (back to target).”  He went on to say that he was optimistic that the current Fed Funds Rate was high enough to do the job.  Still, when asked where he felt the biggest risk to the economy was, Barkin replied “I still have the weight going toward inflation.” “It’s a stubborn road back…It doesn’t mean you won’t get back. It just means it takes a while…to corral price setters (businesses) into believing they don’t really have a chance (for price increases without losing sales).

After the close, ACM, ATSG, BCC, BWXT, CBT, COKE, COHR, CPS, FN, FIS, IFF, ITUB, VAC, PLTR, O, SPG, and VRTX all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AL, FMC, GT, JELD, MCHP, OTTR, RRX, and WMB missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COTY, NE, PARR, and PRI all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, AAN, DOOR, and OGS missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that SPG raised its forward guidance.

In stock news, on Monday, KKR announced it will buy Indian medical device maker Healthium Medtech from UK-based Apax Partners for roughly $839 million.  At the same time, Reuters reported that DIS and CMCSA are seeking to hire a third-party financial advisor to resolve their dispute over the valuation of Hulu.  (DIS will acquire a 33% stake in Hulu from CMCSA according to a deal struck in 2023, but value was undecided.  JPM told DIS Hulu was worth $27.5 billion while MS told CMCSA that Hulu was worth $40 billion.) Later, Chinese premium EV-maker NIO announced it will launch its first mass-market EV by the end of this month, in Europe, for under $30k.  At the same time, industry publication Electrek reported that TSLA laid off more employees Monday in its Software, Service, and Engineering departments.  (Employees received layoff emails on Sunday.)  Later, ALE announced it would go private at a $6.2 billion valuation (including debt to be assumed). This will result in a $67/share cash offer.  Elsewhere, tech publication “The Information” reported Monday that MSFT is training a new, in-house AI model named MAI-1.  The model, much bigger than any MSFT has trained internally in the past, is intended to compete with GOOGL and OpenAI.  (The project is being headed by the co-founder of GOOGL’s DeepMind unit.)

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, HOOD received notice from the SEC that its cryptocurrency unit has been “preliminarily found” to have engaged in securities violations and will likely face either “cease and desist” action, civil court injunctions, or other penalties relate to the broker’s listings and crypto transactions.  Later, the highest state court in MA began hearing a challenge to ballot initiatives proposed and paid for by LYFT and UBER, which would define gig workers explicitly as contractors, not eligible for benefits, minimum wage laws, worker protection laws, and tax withholding.  (No timeframe for a decision is available.)  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FAA has opened a new investigation into BA over inspections the company recently admitted its employees skipped on 787 Dreamliner planes in order to maintain production schedules.  The investigation will also determine whether the documentation submitted to the FAA indicated those inspections had been made and passed (if documents were falsified).  Later, a Us judge formally ended the US Dept. of Justice case against GS related to the bank’s work with corrupt Malaysian fun 1MDB, accepting the $2.9 billion in penalties GS paid.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that crypto “Super PACs” have raised more than $102 million to spend on the 2024 Congressional elections.  ($54 million of this reportedly came from COIN and Ripple Labs.)  Reports say much of this will be focused on defeating Democratic Senators Brown (OH) and Tester (MT) who have been critical of crypto.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the bullish side with seven of the 12 exchanges in the green.  South Korea (+2.16%), Japan (+1.57%), and Australia (+1.44%) were by far the biggest movers and led the region higher.  However, in Europe, 13 of the 15 bourses are in the green at midday with only Russia (-0.44%) worse than flat.  The CAC (+0.37%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+1.03%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed open near flat.  The DIA implies a +0.07% open, the SPY is implying a dead flat open, and the QQQ implies a -0.20% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.461% and Oil (WTI) is off four-tenths of a percent to $78.15 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (noon), March Consumer Credit (3 p.m.), and API Weekly Crude Stocks (4:30 p.m.).  Fed member Kashkari also speaks (11:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open on Tuesday include GOLF, AHCO, ALGT, GBTG, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BLMN, BP, BLDR, CEIX, CROX, DDOG, DK, DUK, ERJ, ENR, EXPD, RACE, FTRE, GEO, GTN, HSIC, J, KVUE, NJR, NRG, OSCR, MD, PRGO, ROK, SCSC, SRE, SPR, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, UBS, VVX, and DIS.  Then, after the close, KLG, AMRK, AGL, ARKO, AIZ, BTG, BIO, BRFS, BHF, CRC, CHRD, CPNG, EC, EA, GMED, GO, GXO, HY, IAC, ICUI, JKHY, KGC, KD, LYFT, MTW, MASI, MTCH, MCK, OXY, OVV, PR, RYAM, RRR, RNG, RIVN, SU, VIV, TOST, TWLO, and WYNN report. 

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, the WASDE report, and April Federal Budget Balance as well as Fed members Bowman and Vice Chair Barr speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, AFRM, BUD, BCO, BR, CLVT, SID, SATS, EPC, ELAN, EMR, FWONK, FOXA, GLP, DINO, IEP, INGR, KMT, LCII, LSXMA, LPX, MIDD, EYE, NEUE, NFE, NYT, NI, ODP, PFGC, RCM, REYN, SHOP, SWX, STWD, SUN, TGNA, TEVA, TM, UBER, VSH, VST, AE, ABNB, AMC, APP, ARM, ATO, CE, CENTA, CENT, CAKE, CCU, COMP, CPAY, CAPL, ET, EXAS, FG, FLNC, FNF, FWRD, HLI, HUBS, CART, JXN, MFC, MATV, MMS, MKSI, MRC, NWSA, NTR, PAAS, QDEL, RGLD, SBGI, SSRM, STN, STE, SNEX, RUN, TKO, MODG, TSE, TTEC, VSTO, WTS, and WES report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADV, ALE, AZUL, BERY, CSIQ, CRL, COMM, CEG, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, HBI, HGV, H, ICL, IHRT, IBP, KELYA, NXST, NOMD, PZZA, PLTK, ACDC, RPRX, RBLX, SBH, SN, SOLV, SPB, TPR, TEF, TIXT, VTNR, VTRS, WBD, WMG, AKAM, COLD, AMN, BAP, DBX, SSP, EVH, FIHL, GEN, G, HRB, IAG, IOSP, MTD, PBA, RXT, RBA, and SLF.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW report.

So far this morning, GOLF, AVNT, BLDR, CEIX, CROX, DDOG, ENR, RACE, GFS, GTN, J, OSCR, ROK, SGRY, TDG, UBS, VVX, and WAT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ARMK, ATKR, DK, DUK, HSIC, NJR, NRG, MD, PRGO, TPX, BLD, and DIS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AHCO and GEO beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BLMN and BP missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, the largest physician-run hospital network in the US (Steward Health Care), which operates 31 hospitals, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Monday after failing to secure a new loan from its landlord MPW.  Steward has nearly 30,000 employees, including 4,500 doctors and operates 400 locations (not just the 31 hospitals).  Elsewhere, the CDC said Monday that it had asked state health depts. And asked that they provide protective gear to farm workers to reduce the risk of H5N1 bird flu transmission to (and then between) humans.  (There has already been one case of a farm work contracting bird flu from a dairy herd, which had been contaminated.  The case was mild, similar to traditional flu.)  The USDA had previously said that H5N1 had likely been circulating in poultry and dairy animals since November and was first found on March 25.  So far, test have found pasteurized milk contains remnants but remains safe for human consumption.

In other news, Hamas made news Monday by announcing they had agreed to a ceasefire plan proposed by Egypt and Qatar.  (Reports had said Israel had signed off on the deal before it was proposed.)  However, Israel said what Hamas agreed to was nowhere close to what they could accept…implying Hamas agreed to its own counter to the deal shown to them.  In the meantime, Israeli Defense Forces announced it has begun a “limited” ground offensive into Rafah (city of 1.4 million).  This includes the takeover of the Rafah side of the border crossing to Egypt.  While oil markets calmed on the news midday Monday, the IDF operation in Rafah (where explosions were heard Monday night) is likely to stoke oil fears again.  In the meantime, Israeli negotiators said they will travel to resume ceasefire talks as both sides work to blame the other for no halt to fighting.

With that background, it looks as if traders are undecided this morning. The two large-cap index ETFs opened the premarket flat and have printed mostly wicks since that point. Meanwhile, the QQQ gapped down to start the early session and then has printed its own indecisive candle. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways. The longer-term market remains Bullish as all three major index ETFs have returned within a few percent of all-time highs. Overall, the character of the market is gappy, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs are “too far” extended above their T-line, but the QQQ is starting to push that level. However, at the same time, the T2122 indicator is now well inside of its overbought area. So, while both sides still have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so, the Bears have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with the two biggest dogs TSLA (-1.46%) and NVDA (-1.34%) leading the QQQ (and probably overall market) lower. Again, keep in mind that this is not a heavy news week but we do have a lot of earnings reports. Perhaps more importantly, there are several Fed speakers and undoubtedly a few others will also pop off. Any of those statements could swing markets, especially as Bulls are now dreaming of Fed rate cuts again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Friday saw another significant gap higher.  The SPY gapped up 1.21%, DIA gapped up 1.28%, and QQQ gapped up 1.75%.  From there, all three major index ETFs wobbled to the side, reentering the gap and crossing above the open, but never straying too far from the opening price. This lasted the entire session.  This gave us gap-up, indecisive candles in all three.   SPY printed a white-bodied Doji, QQQ gave us a white-bodied Spinning Top, and DIA printed a black-body Doji.  All three are now firmly above their T-lines (8emas).  This happened on average volume in the QQQ and DIA as well as just-less-than-average volume in the SPY.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.86%) far out front (by 0.75%) while Energy (+0.40%) lagged the other sectors.  VXX dropped another 3.47% to close at 12.78 and T2122 climbed to the very top edge of its mid-range at 79.25.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields fell sharply to 4.497% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.08%, to close at $78.10 per barrel.  So, Friday saw all of its move in the opening gap.  Most of the market analysts seemed to think that a decline in jobs increases and a climb in the Unemployment Rate will help clear the way for a Fed rate cut.  After that start to the session, there were some waves but price oscillated in a fairly tight range around that opening price.  It was as if traders had decided to head for the weekend early.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included April Avg. Hourly Earnings (Year-on-Year) increased less than expected at +3.9% (compared to a forecast of +4.0% and the March increase of 4.1%).  At the same time, April Nonfarm Payrolls increased far less than predicted at +175k (versus the +238k forecast and dramatically less than the March +315k).  Meanwhile, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls also increased less than anticipated at +167k (compared to the +181k forecast and far less than the March +243k reading).  The April Participation Rate remained steady at 62.7% (the same as March’s participation rate).  Together, this gave us an April Unemployment Rate which increased to 3.9% (compared to a forecast and March value of 3.8%). Later, the April S&P Global Services PMI came in higher than expected at 51.3 (versus a 50.9 forecast but down from March’s 51.7).  Combined with Thursday’s Mfg. data this gave us an April S&P Global Composite PMI of 51.3 (compared to a 50.9 forecast and March’s reading of 52.1).  Later, the ISM Non-Mfg. Employment Index was lower than anticipated at 45.9 (versus a 49.0 forecast and the March 48.5 value).  At the same time, the ISM Non-Mfg. PMI also came in low at 49.4 (compared the 52.0 forecast and the March reading of 51.4).  On the cost side, the ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index were significantly higher than expected at 59.2 (versus the 55.0 forecast and a March value of 53.4).

In Fed speak news, on Friday Fed Governor Bowman (a hawk) told an audience of bankers that she supports the current FOMC stance but still fears inflation risks.  “My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady, but I still see a number of upside inflation risks that affect my outlook, … While the current stance of monetary policy appears to be at a restrictive level, I remain willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed.”  Later, after the close, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee told a conference that the Fed’s “dot plots” (which are published once per quarter, showing the inflation predictions of each Fed member) need more context.  Goolsbee said, “the dot plot is just a collection of opinions without economic content … Because it can’t be connected to the economic conditions the participant thinks will justify that interest rate, there is nothing to tell us why they think this a reasonable choice.”   Instead, Goolsbee proposed “A matrix that anonymously matches the economic forecasts to the rate path for each participant would answer some important questions.”

In stock news, on Friday, ALK announced that it had received $61 million in credit toward future purchases of BA jets (in addition to the $162 million cash ALK got from BA) as compensation for the temporary grounding of all 737 MAX 9 jets earlier this year.  At the same time, Reuters reported that LUV will be forced to reduce the hours (and thus pay) of its pilots later this year as it grapples with a lack of jets due to BA delivery delays.  This is a problem, because LUV, like all major airlines has been trying to increase its pilot staff amidst an industry-wide pilot labor shortage.  Lower pay will hardly help the plans to increase staff.  Later, the New York Times reported that PARA will let its exclusive negotiation deal with Skydance lapse in the face of a competing bid from SONY and APO.  At the same time, XOM told Reuters Friday that after reaching a deal with the FTC for approval of its acquisition of PXD, the oil giant expects it to take between 18 and 24 months to achieve full synergies of the purchase.  (This will push XOM’s Permian Basin oil output by 1.3 million barrels per day with another 700k bpd added by 2027 due to integrating PXD technologies.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the Treasury Dept. gave automakers an extension until 2027 to remove Chinese-sourced trace minerals from electric vehicle batteries and still have their electric vehicles qualify for tax credits. (The announcement attributed the extension to the minerals being hard to source from other sources at this time.)  At the same time, GOOGL and the Dept. of Justice finished closing arguments in the antitrust case the US brought against GOOGL related to web search and related advertising.  Later, the FTC requested more information from NVO relate to its $16.5 billion bid to acquire CTLT.  At the same time, GS announced it had finally reached an agreement in-principle to settle a 2014 class-action lawsuit over GS trading in platinum and palladium.  (No terms were announced.)  Later, AMRX announced it had reached a $270 settlement (payable over 10 years) agreement over its involvement in the US opioid epidemic.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with eight of the 12 exchanges in the green.  Shenzhen (+2.00%), Shanghai (+1.16%), and Taiwan (+0.95%) led the region higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, 13 of the 15 bourses are in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.76%), DAX (+0.89%), and FTSE (+0.51%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.32% open, the SPY is implying a +0.33% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.481% and Oil (WTI) is up just less than a percent to $78.86 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday is limited to Fed member Williams speaking at 1 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open on Monday include, AMG, AMR, BRKB, BNTX, CAN, JLL, SAVE, THS, and TSN.  Then, after the close, AAN, ACM, AL, BCC, BWXT, CBT, COHR, COTY, FN, FIS, FMC, GT, IFF, ITUB, JELD, VAC, DOOR, MCHP, NE, OGS, OTTR, PLTR, PARR, PRI, O, RRX, SPG, VRTX, and WMB report. 

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get March Consumer Credit, API Weekly Crude Stocks, and Fed member Kashkari speaks.  Then Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations, the WASDE report, and April Federal Budget Balance as well as Fed members Bowman and Vice Chair Barr speak.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from GOLF, AHCO, ALGT, GBTG, ARMK, ATKR, AVNT, BLMN, BP, BLDR, CEIX, CROX, DDOG, DK, DUK, ERJ, ENR, EXPD, RACE, FTRE, GEO, GTN, HSIC, J, KVUE, NJR, NRG, OSCR, MD, PRGO, ROK, SCSC, SRE, SPR, SGRY, TPX, BLD, TDG, UBS, VVX, DIS, KLG, AMRK, AGL, ARKO, AIZ, BTG, BIO, BRFS, BHF, CRC, CHRD, CPNG, EC, EA, GMED, GO, GXO, HY, IAC, ICUI, JKHY, KGC, KD, LYFT, MTW, MASI, MTCH, MCK, OXY, OVV, PR, RYAM, RRR, RNG, RIVN, SU, VIV, TOST, TWLO, and WYNN.  Then Wednesday, AFRM, BUD, BCO, BR, CLVT, SID, SATS, EPC, ELAN, EMR, FWONK, FOXA, GLP, DINO, IEP, INGR, KMT, LCII, LSXMA, LPX, MIDD, EYE, NEUE, NFE, NYT, NI, ODP, PFGC, RCM, REYN, SHOP, SWX, STWD, SUN, TGNA, TEVA, TM, UBER, VSH, VST, AE, ABNB, AMC, APP, ARM, ATO, CE, CENTA, CENT, CAKE, CCU, COMP, CPAY, CAPL, ET, EXAS, FG, FLNC, FNF, FWRD, HLI, HUBS, CART, JXN, MFC, MATV, MMS, MKSI, MRC, NWSA, NTR, PAAS, QDEL, RGLD, SBGI, SSRM, STN, STE, SNEX, RUN, TKO, MODG, TSE, TTEC, VSTO, WTS, and WES report.  On Thursday, we hear from ADV, ALE, AZUL, BERY, CSIQ, CRL, COMM, CEG, EDR, EPAM, EVRG, HBI, HGV, H, ICL, IHRT, IBP, KELYA, NXST, NOMD, PZZA, PLTK, ACDC, RPRX, RBLX, SBH, SN, SOLV, SPB, TPR, TEF, TIXT, VTNR, VTRS, WBD, WMG, AKAM, COLD, AMN, BAP, DBX, SSP, EVH, FIHL, GEN, G, HRB, IAG, IOSP, MTD, PBA, RXT, RBA, and SLF.  Finally, on Friday, AQN, AMCX, CLMT, CPG, CRH, ENB, HMC, and DNOW report.

So far this morning, BRKB, JLL, and L reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AMG and TSN missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CNA and THS missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, SAVE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

On Saturday, “Woodstock for Capitalists” took place in Omaha.  Warren “The Oracle of Omaha” Buffett spoke and BRKB reported a massive 32% increase (year-over-year) in Q1 operating income.  Yet, the company managed to report a huge 66% drop in net income for the quarter. As of the end of the quarter, BRKB was sitting on a record $189 billion pile of cash-on-hand.  During the quarter, BRKB reduced its holding of AAPL by 13%, down to (a paltry) $135.4 billion.  Still, AAAPL remains the biggest holding in the BRKB portfolio.  During his Q/A session, Warren Buffett said he expects US taxes to rise to tackle the country’s wide federal deficit.  Buffett said, “I think higher taxes are likely.” “They (Congress and the President) may not want to decrease spending and they may decide they’ll take a larger percentage of what we own…and we’ll pay it.”  He continued, “Almost everybody I know pays a lot more attention to not paying taxes than I think they should, we don’t mind paying taxes at Berkshire.”  Later, in answering questions, Buffett made it clear that Greg Abel will succeed him as the head of BRKB, claiming that Abel is already handling almost all of the company business.  Specifically, Buffett said, “The number of calls I get from managers is essentially awfully close to zero and Greg is handling those. I don’t know quite how he does it, but we’ve got the right person, I can tell you that.”

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are working again this morning. The premarket started a bit higher and all three major index ETFs have printed white-body candles since then in the early session. Only SPY and QQQ show any wick and those are both small upper wicks at this point. All three remain above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bearish. The longer-term market remains Bullish but under pressure. Overall, the character of the market is indecisive, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is extended above their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now just outside of its overbought area at the top of the mid-range. So, both sides still have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green with AMD well out in front leading the charge. However, AAPL (-0.26%) is by far the biggest drag (probably on news Buffett reduced the BRKB holdings of AAPL) as the joy of the huge buyback program announcement fades a bit early. Keep in mind that this is not a heavy news week but we do have a lot of earnings reports. Perhaps more importantly, there are several Fed speakers planned and undoubtedly others will also pop off. Any of those statements could rock markets as the Bulls are now dreaming of a rate cut again.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped up Thursday as traders rethought their late-day selloff from the day before.  SPY gapped up 0.76%, DIA gapped up 0.61%, and QQQ gapped up 0.94%.  At that point, all three major index ETFs faded and recrossed the gap by 10:10 a.m.  However, this was a Bear Trap with all three major index ETFs starting a steady rally at 10:15 a.m., recrossing the gap and continuing North and reaching the highs of the day at 3:15 p.m.  From there, SPY, DIA, and QQQ all sold off modestly the last 45 minutes of the day.  This action gave us white-bodied Hammer-type candles in all three major index ETFs.  All three crossed back above their T-line (8ema) during the session.  This all happened on less than average volume in all three, with QQQ have by far the weakest volume relative to its average.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Consumer Cyclical (+2.01%) far out front of Technology (+1.50%) which was far out in front of the other sectors, leading markets higher.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.93%, DIA gained 0.89%, and QQQ gained 1.28%.  VXX dropped 3.29% to close at 13.24 and T2122 popped higher and is now in the top-end of its mid-range at 70.16.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.589% and Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat, closing at $78.96 per barrel.  So, Thursday was a rebound day after Wednesday’s Fed indecision.  However, truly, nothing major has changed in the last 10-12 days as bullish moves are met with bearish moves and visa-versa. 

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included March Exports, which came in lower at $257.60 billion (compared to February’s $263.00 billion reading).  The March Imports also fell to $327.00 billion (down from $331.90 billion in February).  This gave us a March Trade Balance of -$69.40 billion, which was down slightly from the February -$69.50 billion value.  At the same time, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected at 208k (compared to a 212k forecast but flat from the prior week’s 208k).  On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were flat at 1,774k (versus a forecast of 1,800k and the prior week’s 1,774k).  Meanwhile, the Q1 Nonfarm Productivity was down slightly to +0.3% (compared to a much higher forecast value of +0.8% but only down a touch from Q4’s +3.5%).  However, the bigger miss was on Q1 Unit Labor Cost (preliminary) which was up 4.7% (versus a +3.6% forecast and greatly higher than Q4’s +0.4%).  Later, March Factory Orders were up to +1.6% (which was in line with the +1.6% forecast but up nicely from February’s +1.2%).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet showed a $40 billion reduction from $7.402 trillion to $7.362 trillion. 

After the close, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, COIN, CTRA, DVA, EOG, EXPE, FTNT, GDDY, HOLX, HUN, ILMN, MTZ, MELI, MSI, OPEN, OTEX, PTVE, REZI, RGA, RKT, RYAN, SEM, and TXRH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, AES, DLR, ED, FND, IR, ZEUS, POST, SM, and X missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ALHC, BECN, CIVI, DKNG, LYV, MODV, and WSC beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.  However, AEE, WTRG, MNST, OEC, and SWN missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In stock news, on Thursday, CB told the Wall Street Journal is it preparing to pay a $350 million claim to the state of MD related to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in March.  At the same time, NVO announced it will be reducing the price of its blockbuster weight loss drug Wegovy amidst an increase in competition from LLY. After the close, AAPL reported that iPhone sales fell less than expected (down 10% year on year in Q1) while overall sales fell 4%.  However, AAPL also announced the biggest stock buyback program in the history of the market at $110 billion (a 22% increase over their record $90 billion repurchase program from last year).  AAPL share soared in post-market trading on the news.  Also after the close, AMGN announced it had scrapped plans for a pill version of a weight loss drug and will move ahead with an injection version similar to NVO and LLY drugs in the same class.  For what it is worth, the CEO of AMGN touted excellent early-phase results of its injectable weight loss candidate.  Finally, SONY and APOS both expressed interest in buying PARA for $26 billion in cash as the company considers a bid from Skydance.  Under the alternate offer, SONY would be the majority shareholder with APOS holding a minority position.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, a Russian court ruled that JPM assets held in accounts which cannot be transferred outside of Russia will not be seized.  The court said this covered $2.25 billion of JPM’s assets.  Later, the FCC told Congress Thursday that 40% of US telecom providers report they will need additional government money to fund the removal of Chinese equipment from Huawei and ZTE from their networks.  (Congress approved $1.9 billion and the telecom companies report $4.98 billion will be needed to cover the 39.5% of replacement cost that the law said would be covered.)   At the same time, SPR filed suit in US district court to block TX from demanding documents and conducting a probe of the company (which does no manufacturing in TX).  Later, RIVN reported that it received $827 million in incentive packages from the state of IL to help fund the expansion of the company’s operations in that state.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US Dept. of Justice has launched a probe into how Chinese drug traffickers have laundered money from the sale of fentanyl through TD (TD Bank).  After the close, the USDA announced that WMT had recalled 16,000 pounds of ground beef due to a suspicion it is infected with E. coli. 

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.48%) led the gainers while Shenzhen (-0.90%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the bourses are much more bullish with 12 of 15 exchanges in the green at midday.  The CAC (+0.53%), DAX (+0.40%), and FTSE (+0.49%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward another green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.79% open, the SPY is implying a +0.40% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.68% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.559% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.34% to $79.22 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include April Avg. Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, and April Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 a.m.), April S&P Global Services PMI and April S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 a.m.), ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, and ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index (all at 10 a.m.), and Fed Member Williams speaks at 7:45 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include on Friday, ADNT, AXL, AMRX, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, CBRE, GTLS, LNG, CRBG, FLR, FYBR, GPRE, HSY, KOP, MGA, NMRK, NVT, PAA, PAGP, TRP, TAC, TRMB, and XPO.  Then, after the close there are no major earnings report scheduled. 

So far this morning, AMRX, BBU, CBOE, CRBG, FYBR, HSY, NVT, TRP, TRMB, and XPO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ADNT, CBRE, OMI, and TAC all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BEP and LNG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GTLS, FLR, GPRE, and MGA missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that MGA lowered its forward guidance.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are gapping markets higher today as all three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher. However, with the exception of DIA’s significant white body, they have only printed indecisive candles since the open of the early session. All three are back above their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bullish again. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bearish. The longer-term market remains Bullish but under pressure. Overall, the character of the market is indecisive, choppy, and volatile. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is extended above their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now in the upper-end of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, they are evenly split with 5 in the green and 5 in the red this morning. However, AAPL (+6.02%) is by far the biggest mover and dragging the overall market higher on its massive buyback program announced last night. Keep in mind that we still have the April Jobs Report is likely to cause volatility or a change in market direction this morning. Also, don’t forget this is Friday, pay day. So prepare your account for the weekend news cycle.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Wednesday saw a mixed start to the day for markets.  SPY opened 0.14% lower, DIA opened 0.07% higher, and QQQ gapped down 0.39%.  From that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways until early afternoon.  Oddly, instead of waiting on the Fed decisions and statement, all three started to rally at 1:30 p.m.  However, the rally really picked up steam with a strong spike higher between 2:30 p.m. and 3 p.m.  This was followed by 30 minutes of a sideways grind in all three.  At that point, the Bears woke up and markets sold off sharply the rest of the day.  This action gave us Inverted Hammer candles in all three major index ETFs.  DIA gave us a white version while SPY and QQQ printed black versions.  This means that all three also retested and failed their T-line (8ema) during the session.  This all happened on about average volume.  We saw average volume in the QQQ and SPY along with heavier-than-average volume in the DIA.

On the day, the 10 sectors were evenly split with Utilities (+1.18%) far out front leading the five gainers while Energy (-1.36%) was way out front leading the five red ones.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.29%, DIA gained 0.20%, and QQQ lost 0.72%.  VXX gained 0.59% to close at 13.69 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to close in the lower-end of the mid-range at 28.51.  10-year bond yields fell to 4.639% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 3.31% to close at $79.20 per barrel. So, on Wednesday, saw a typical “wait and see” in the morning.  However, oddly, markets seemed to think they knew how the wind would be blowing about a half hour ahead of the Fed announcements.  Then we saw a spike, followed by rest and then a sharp selloff.  In short, traders seem relieved the Fed left rates where they were and loved the fact Chairman Powell essentially took more rate hikes off the table.  However, they also then realized there won’t be a rate cut anytime soon and that scared them back into a bearish move.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, which came in stronger than expected at 192k (compared to a forecast of 179k but down from the March reading of 208k).  Later, April S&P Global Mfg. PMI was just a tick stronger than predicted at 50.0 (versus a 49.9 forecast but down from March’s 51.9).  After that, March Construction Spending was well down from what was anticipated at -0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but slightly better than February’s -0.3% value).  Meanwhile, April ISM Mfg. Employment came in a bit stronger than expected at 48.6 (versus a 48.2 forecast and the March 47.4 reading).  At the same time, April ISM Mfg. PMI was lower than predicted at 49.2 (compared to a 50.0 forecast and a March 50.3 value).  However, the April ISM Mfg. Price Index was well above expectations at 60.9 (versus a 55.5 forecast and a 55.8 March reading).  On the jobs front, March JOLTs Job Openings were down at 8.488 million (compared to the 8.680 million forecast and significantly down from the February 8.813 million).  Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a large, unexpected inventory build of 7.265 million barrels (versus a predicted drawdown of 2.300 million barrels and the prior week’s 6.368-million-barrel drawdown). 

However, the big news of the day was the Fed.  The FOMC held rates flat, but the statement added a note that there has been a lack of progress on inflation toward its 2% goal since its last meeting.  Beyond that, the statement added a flat declaration that, beginning in June, the FOMC will slow the pace of its balance sheet reductions (in terms of bonds) from an average of $60 billion to $25 billion per month.  However, it will also maintain the $35 billion per month pace of reductions for non-Treasury balance sheet items (mortgage-backed securities and agency debt).  In terms of Powell’s press conference, the Chair poo-pooed the idea of stagflation, saying “I don’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘-flation’,” … “(So,) I don’t really understand where that’s coming from.”  When asked about the possibility of a rate hike, Powell said “I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I’d say it’s unlikely.”  When pushed further on what it would take to cause a rate hike, the Fed Chair replied “I think we’d need to see persuasive evidence that our policy stance is not sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time. That’s not what we think we’re seeing.”  The rest of the press conference really boiled down to Powell saying the Fed has not gained any additional confidence that inflation is on path to 2% (which the Fed has said is the required trigger for a rate cut).  Powell said, “It is likely that gaining such greater confidence will take longer than previously expected. We are prepared to maintain the current target federal funds rate for as long as appropriate.”

In stock news, on Wednesday, TELL sent Houston-based workers home as it is in talked to sell its shale gas business in order to raise funds for its “Driftwood LNG Export” plant.  At the same time, research firm S3 Partners released a report saying that the so-called Magnificent 7 (GOOGL, MSFT, AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, META, and TSLA) now account for $1.08 trillion in short interest.  This means they represent 12% of the US market’s total shorts.  Later, Bloomberg reported that KR is in talks with DIS about adding DIS+ streaming as a benefit of the grocery chain’s membership program for the remainder of 2024 at no cost.  At the same time, SPR announced it had a plan that gives it “a high degree of confidence” it can meet BA’s quality and production rate demands for 737 MAX jets.  (BA and the FAA declined to comment to Reuters on the announcement.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that sources tell it the FTC will rule on its antitrust investigation of the XOM acquisition of PXD for $60 billion within days.  Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that the FTC is planning to approve the deal, but will prohibit the PXD CEO from joining the board of XOM as a condition of approval.  After the close, CMCSA stopped broadcasting Bally Sports channels.  This puts the bankruptcy restructuring of a SBGI subsidiary (Diamond Sports) at risk of collapse.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported that US bank regulators are discussing finalizing bank capitalization rules by as soon as August.  After the close, JPM made a filing that indicated it expects bank assets in Russia to be seized by that country.  (The filing did not specify the dollar value of the bank’s assets in Russia.)

After the close, AFL, AIG, AXS, BHE, CHRW, CWH, CVNA, CTSH, CW, DLX, EBAY, ENSG, EXPI, FLSR, FNV, GIL, HST, MGM, MYRG, PAYC, PGRE, PPC, PTC, QRVO, QCOM, SEB, SCI, SFM, TTEK, VMI, VICI, VTR, ZG, and Z all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ACHC, ALL, BBSI, BV, BZH, CTVA, DVN, ES, HLF, THG, MRO, MET, MOS, SUM, and UGI missed on revenue while beating one earnings.  On the other side, AFG, AWK, CAR, CF, DASH, GFL, KMPR, MAA, MKL, and TROX beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ALB, ANSS, BALY, CMPR, CODI, NVST, ETSY, JAZZ, CNXN, MUSA, RHP, SIGI, and TWI missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that BHE, MPWR, SFM, and TTEK raised their guidance.  At the same time, QRVO and ZG lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, Hong Kong (+2.50%) was by far (by 1.6%) the biggest mover on the day.  On the other side, Shenzhen (-0.90%) and Taiwan (-0.85%) paced the losers on a day where six exchanges were green and six red.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with seven of 15 bourses in the green.  The CAC (-0.73%), DAX (+0.08%), and FTSE (+0.39%) lead the region on volume as Norway (-0.88%) has made the biggest move in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a solidly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.48% open, the SPY is implying a +0.71% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.93% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields have dropped to 4.602% and Oil (WTI) is up 0.43% to $79.38 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes March Exports, March Imports, March Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Cost (all at 8:30 a.m.), March Factory Orders (10 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AGCO, ATUS, AME, APA, APG, APO, APTV, MT, ARES, ARW, BHC, BAX, BCE, BDX, BDC, BWA, BTSG, BRKR, CNQ, CAH, CHD, CI, CNK, CNHI, CIGI, COP, CMI, XRAY, DBD, D, DRVN, DNB, ENOV, NVRI, EXC, ULCC, HWM, HII, NSIT, ICE, IQV, IRM, ITRI, ITT, JHG, K, KTB, LNC, LIN, MCO, MUR, NFG, NVO, ONEW, OGN, PH, PATK, PBF, BTU, PTON, PENN, PNW, PBI, PWR, REGN, RXO, SABR, SNDR, SEE, SHEL, SO, SWK, TRGP, TFX, TRI, UPBD, VAL, VSTS, VMC, W, WEN, WCC, WRK, XYL, ZBH, and ZTS. Then, after the close, AES, ALHC, AEE, AMGN, AAPL, ACA, BECN, SQ, BKNG, BFAM, CIVI, COIN, ED, CTRA, DVA, DLR, DKNG, EOG, WTRG, EXPE, FND, FTNT, GDDY, HOLX, HUN, ILMN, IR, LYV, MTZ, MODV, MNST, MSI, ZEUS, OTEX, OPEN, OEC, PTVE, PXD, POST, RGA, REZI, RKT, RYAN, SEM, SM, SWN, TXRH, X, and WSC report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, April Avg. Hourly Earnings, April Nonfarm Payrolls, April Private Nonfarm Payrolls, April Participation Rate, April Unemployment Rate, April S&P Global Services PMI, April S&P Global Composite PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. Employment, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI, ISM Non-Mfg. PMI Price Index, and Fed Member Williams speaks.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, ADNT, AXL, AMRX, BEPC, BEP, CBOE, CBRE, GTLS, LNG, CRBG, FLR, FYBR, GPRE, HSY, KOP, MGA, NMRK, NVT, PAA, PAGP, TRP, TAC, TRMB, and XPO report.

So far this morning, MT, BDX, BWA, BTSG, BRKR, CHD, CI, CNK, CNHI, ENOV, NVRI, ULCC, GEL, GVA, HWM, ICFI, IQV, IRM, ITT, KTB, LAMR, MCO, MUR, NVO, PBF, PBI, PWR, SWK, TFX, TRI, UPBD, VNT, W, XYL, ZBH, and ZTS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AME, APTV, BCE, CAH, COP, XRAY, LIN, RXO, SHEL, WEN, and WRK all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, ACDVF, APO, and EXC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ARES, PENN, REGN, and WCC missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that CI raised its forward guidance.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, GS strategists told clients that the single-stock options volume decline prior to the start of earnings season signaled weakness in stocks.  However, the report says that this volume has now stabilized and even shows a modest increase, which GS says indicates that the market has an appetite to buy the weakness in equity prices.  (In other words, “buy the dip” is still in play.)   Meanwhile, BestEx Research that roughly one-third of all S&P 500 stock trades happen in the last 10 minutes of the trading session.  This is up significantly from the 27% happening in those minutes found in the company’s 2021 study. 

In other news, the US Treasury and State Departments issued hundreds of sanctions related to targeting the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This included 20 companies in China and Hong Kong. Unsurprisingly, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing firmly opposes what he called the US’s “illegal unilateral sanctions.”  Meanwhile, in Japan, the Yen jumped 3% against the Dollar late in the US session.  This has led to broad speculation that the Bank of Japan has intervened for the second time this week. Finally, in late-breaking news, PTON announced it will lay off 15% of its staff and the CEO will step down.

With that background, it looks as if the Bulls have rethought yesterday’s late selloff and are looking to gap all three major index ETFs higher. All three opened just under their T-line (8ema) but are printing small, indecisive, white-bodied candles after that gap. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain just below their T-line (8ema). So, the short-term trend is now bearish but under pressure from the Bulls. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains bearish. The longer-term market remains Bullish but under pressure. In terms of extension, none of the three major index ETFs is extended below their T-line. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is now in the lower-end of its mid-range. So, both sides have room to run if they can gain the momentum to do so. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, all 10 are in the green this morning with the biggest dog NVDA (+1.75%) out front leading the way higher. Keep in mind that we still have the April Jobs Report on Friday morning. So, after the rethink of Fed reaction we may see an afternoon drift waiting for those Friday morning numbers.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service