On Friday, SPY was the only gapper, while QQQ and DIA opened little changed.  SPY gapped down 0.46% (likely mostly due to the SPX dividend), while both DIA and QQQ opened just 0.07% lower. From there, all three major index ETFs meandered sideways for the rest of the day with QQQ showing more volatility (wave height) than the two large-cap ETFs.  This action gave us indecisive, Doji or Spinning Top-like candles in all three.  SPY retested (and passed the test) its T-line (8ema).  The other two remained above their own T-lines.  All three major index ETFs printed less-than-average volume.  On the week, DIA printed a Bullish Engulfing candle that crossed back above its T-line while SPY and QQQ printed high-wick, white-bodied candles at all-time weekly high closes.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Healthcare (+0.67%) out in front leading the way higher.  Meanwhile, Basic Materials (-0.49%), Utilities (-0.48%), and Energy (-0.47%) paced the losses.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.46% (again, mostly on the SPX dividend), DIA lost 0.19%, and QQQ lost 0.46%.  VXX fell 2.25% to close at 11.29 and T2122 moved back into the lower-end of its mid-range at 29.10. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields rose to 4.257% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.82% to close at $80.63 per barrel.  So, on Friday we saw nothing day with Triple Witching passing on low volume and volatility.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday included Preliminary June S&P Global Mfg. PMI, which came in above expectations at 51.7 (compared to a forecast of 51.0 and the May 51.3 value).  At the same time, the Preliminary June S&P Global Services PMI was even more above what was anticipated at 55.1 (versus a 53.4 forecast and May’s 54.8 reading).  This gave us a stronger than predicted Preliminary June S&P Global Composite PMI that was at 54.6 (compared to the 53.5 forecast and May’s 54.5 reading).  Later, May Existing Home Sales were also strong at 4.11 million (versus the 4.08 million forecasted but down from April’s 4.14 million number).  This was a decline of 0.7%.  Meanwhile, the May US Leading Economic Indicator Index was lower than was forecast at -0.5% (compared to a -0.4% forecast but better than April’s -0.6% reading).

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday the FDIC and Fed gave failing grades to four of the eight largest US banks in relation to their plans to unwind derivatives trades in the event of a market shock. C, JPM, GS, and BAC were ordered to improve their bankruptcy plans after being chided for their deficiencies.  Later, APPL was forced to announce that it will not roll out its AI products (vainly labeled “Apple Intelligence”) in the EU in 2024 due to anti-trust concerns and fear of violating the EU’s DMA law.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red side.  Taiwan (-1.89%), Shenzhen (-1.55%), and Shanghai (-1.17%) paced the losses, leading the region lower.  In Europe, with the sole exception of Finland (-0.31%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.84%), DAX (+0.63%), and FTSE (+-0.50%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a mixed, flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.07% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.09% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up to 4.267% and Oil (WTI) is up three-tenths of a percent to $80.97 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday all we have is two Fed speakers.  Fed Governor Waller spoke at 3 a.m. and Sn Francisco Fed President Daly speaks at 2 p.m.  There are also no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close Monday.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday, we get Conference Board Consumer Confidence and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman twice.  Then on Wednesday Building Permits, May New Home Sales, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and the Fed Bank Stress Test Results are reported.  Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, May Core Durable Goods, May Durable Goods, Q1 Core PCE Prices, Q1 GDP, Q! GDP Price Index, May Goods Trade Balance, May Retail Inventories, and May Pending Home Sales.  Finally, on Friday, May Core PCE Price Index, May PCE Price Index, May Personal Spending, Jun Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.  We also hear from Fed Governor Bowman.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, CCL, SNX, FDX and WOR report.  Then Wednesday, we hear from GIS, PAYX, UNF, BB, CNXC, FUL, JEF, LEVI, MU, MLKN, and WS.  On Thursday, AYI, MKC, WBA, and NKE report.  Finally, on Friday, there are no earnings reports scheduled.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, Bloomberg reported that China is pushing V and MA to lower their bank card transaction fees inside China.  If that were to happen, it seems likely pressures from the EU (and much less likely the US) would follow quickly.  At the same time, Fed data released Friday shows that the US job market has largely come back to normal.  The data indicates that immigrants have helped a lot, filling lower-end jobs that American’s don’t want.  The study looked at the ratio of JOLTS (job openings) to unemployed persons. That ratio is down from a historical high of over 2-to-1 after the pandemic to a current 1.25 level.  This puts us back in line with pre-pandemic historical lows.  (If you prefer to look at the inverse, there are 0.7 unemployed persons per job opening in the US.)

In late-breaking news, TGT made a move to increase its online third-party sales.  TGT announced Monday that any company working with e-commerce firm SHOP can apply to join the TGT third-party marketplace.  Elsewhere, EU regulators announced that AAPL is in breach of the European Digital Markets Act for failing to make changes to its app store (allowing third-party apps to steer customers to alternative marketplaces or their own websites).  AAPL could face fines up to 10% of the company’s total annual turnover (about $400 billion).

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisive so far this morning. None of the three major index ETFs show much change and all remains modestly above their T-line (8ema). Remember that SPY and QQQ are about 1% from their all-time high and DIA is less than 2% from that mark. So, the short-term trend is bullish. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, none of those three are extended above their T-line and the T2122 indicator is in the lower-end of its mid-range. Therefore, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning. However, it is that biggest dog, NVDA (-1.97%), that is in the red and holding the others in check.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

TSLA and AVGO led broader market ETFs to open higher (again) Thursday while DIA started lower.  SPY gapped up 0.34%, QQQ gapped up 0.74%, and DIA gapped down 0.20%.  From that opening level, SPY and QQQ slowly sold off, reaching the lows at 12:35 p.m.  At that point, both of the broader index ETFs reversed course and slowly rallied the rest of the day.  Meanwhile, after the open, DIA sold off a bit more sharply, reaching its lows at 10:40 a.m. Then it ground sideways until 12:35 p.m. when it started its own slow, steady rally lasting 3 p.m. when it had recrossed the opening gap.  From there, DIA slowly sold back down toward the opening level by day end.  This action gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Hanging Man type candle in the SPY.  The QQQ gave us a gap-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top candle.  Finally, DIA printed a gap-down Doji candle that did not quite retest its T-line (8ema) from below.  It is worth noting that this was the fourth-straight new record high close in both the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-1.27%) way out in front (by half a percent) leading the rest of the market lower.  Meanwhile, Technology (-0.06%) and Utilities (-0.06%) holding up better than other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.20%, DIA lost 0.21%, and QQQ gained 0.54%.  VXX was down 0.28%, closing at a very low 10.86 and T2122 dropped back down into its oversold territory at 12.70.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell sharply again to 4.246% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.49% to close at $78.01 per barrel. So, on Thursday we saw divergence in the market as NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, and AVGO nearly alone dragging the broader index ETFs higher (perhaps with the help of good PPI data), while 70% of the market was down.  It is also worth noting that SPY had only half of its average volume while DIA and QQQ had less-than-average volume.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in higher than expected at 242k (compared to a forecast of 225k and the prior week’s 229k value).  On the ongoing front, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, were also above expectations at 1,820k (versus a forecast of 1,800k, and the prior week’s 1,790k reading).  At the same time, May Core PPI (month-on-month) was down at +/-0.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% and well below the April +0.5% value).  On the headline side, May PPI (month-on-month) was also down significantly at -0.2% (versus the +0.1% forecast and far below April’s +0.5% reading).  Then, after the close, the Fed Balance Sheet actually grew slightly on the week, now standing at $7.259 trillion (compared to last week’s $7.256 trillion) for a $3 billion increase.

In economic speak news, Treasury Sec. Yellen told the Economics Club of NY that US public sector investments are crucial to sustainable growth because it attracts private capital investments.  However, she warned that China’s model of huge state subsidies of industrial projects was unacceptable to the world.  (Expanding on this, in more of an economic or economic-political philosophy clarification, Yellen said that supply-side economics relies too heavily on tax cuts and has been proven to fail to benefit workers, causing disparity.)  She said “We have learned through experience that heavy-handed central planning through government dictates is not a sustainable economic strategy … But neither is traditional supply-side economics, which ignores the importance of public infrastructure, education and workforce training and government-supported basic research.”  She concluded, by saying tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation have not fueled “growth and prosperity for the nation at large.”  Elsewhere, NY Fed Pres. Williams pushed back against the idea of rate cuts anytime soon in his noon speech.  Williams said, “we aren’t really talking about rate cuts right now (at the Fed) … and it’s premature to speculate about them.” 

After the close, ADBE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  At the same time, RH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that ADBE also raised forward guidance.  (ADBE was up 17% in post-market trading.)

In stock news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that BA is investigating new quality issues with 787 Dreamliner jets that have not been delivered yet.  This comes after the company discovered hundreds of fasteners were incorrectly installed in fuselages.  (It was found than many were incorrectly torqued, or tightened, while some were in the wrong place altogether.)  At the same time, INSM announced that its negotiations with AZN over commercialization of its brewnsocatib drug have ended with no deal.  Later, Bloomberg reported that WFC had fired more than a dozen employees from its wealth mgmt. and investment unit for faking work by using simulation of keyboard activity.  At the same time, WMT announced it will re-launch a private label fashion line focused on attracting Gen Z customers. 

Elsewhere, TSN suspended its CFO (the great-grandson of company founder) after his second arrest for driving under the influence in two years.  At the same time, F announced it will soon reverse its decision and allow all of its dealerships to sell electric vehicles.  (Previously, F had required dealers to spend between $500k and $1 million on equipment, training, and “programs” before they were allowed to sell F electric vehicles.)  Later, GME stock prices were boosted on the day after Keith Gill (Roaring Kitty) exercised 40,000 call options, taking possession of 4 million new shares and making him the fourth-largest shareholder with over 9 million shares.  (Gill also took profits on 80,000 call options, meaning he liquidated all 120k call options he held going into the day.)  GME was up 14.28% on the day.  At the same time, Elon Musk claimed victory early Thursday, but the shareholder vote did not begin until after the close. By 7 p.m. Eastern, it was announced that shareholders had in fact approved Musk’s $56 billion pay package.  The package had originally been based on the value of TSLA rising to more than $650 billion between 2018 and 2028.  (As of now, TSLA has a $582 billion market cap, but in 2021 it was worth $1.2 trillion at its peak.) 

In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the largest oil industry trade group (representing the likes of XOM and CVX) sued the EPA, seeking to block the Biden Administration’s efforts to reduce car emissions.  (The EPA tightened, slightly…by 2% per year after 2026, to encouraging electric vehicle adoption.) The suit alleges the EPA exceeded it authority in setting emissions standards that would require a change in fuel type for the auto industry to meet.  Later, the state of FL and DIS ended the long feud (based on the Gov. retaliating against the Mouse House for its opinion on his “Don’t Say Gay” law), by signing a 15-year deal allowing DIS to develop additional portions of the oversight district. (The board of that district was the method the Gov. used to attack DIS for its criticism.)  At the same time, the FAA Administrator Whitaker admitted the agency had been “too hands off” with BA by focusing on analysis of the faked or wrong paperwork BA submitted rather than in-person audits of production line work (prior to the paperwork being created). Whitaker said that approach had been corrected and will not revert (in what was an unstated claim that BA could not be trusted).

Meanwhile, JPM won a court battle with a Greek fintech firm who created an app called Viva Wallet.  The court ruled JPM had no incentive to depress Viva Wallets value because the bank owned 48.5% of the app-creating company.  Under the ruling, the Greek firm loses the right to refuse JPM’s offer to buy them out and valued the company at $5.4 billion.  At the same time, a lawsuit was filed against AAPL in CA, accusing the company of 12,000 female employees less than men for comparable jobs.  Later, the US Supreme Court ruled in favor of SBUX, throwing out a lower court ruling that the company had to abide by an NRLB injunction requiring the company to rehire employees fired when they sought to unionize.  (The ruling was actually that the lower court had used the wrong legal standard for siding with the NLRB and the case must be reheard at the lower court level.)  At the same time, GOOGL was hit with a complaint to the EU antitrust regulators over alleged user tracking by its Chrome web browser.

Overnight, Asian markets were evenly split with six exchanges in the green and six in the red.  Taiwan (+0.86%) led the gainers while Hong Kong (-0.94%) paced the losses.  In Europe, the picture is much weaker with 14 of the 15 bourses in the red and only Russia (+0.43%) in the green.  The CAC (-2.58%), DAX (-1.51%), and FTSE (-0.53%) are a good representation of the spread and lead the region lower in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a gap lower to start the day.  The DIA implies a -0.88% open, the SPY is implying a -0.60% open, and QQQ is implying a -0.33% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.207% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $78.67 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday include May Import Price Index and May Export Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.), and the Fed Monetary Policy Report (11 a.m.).  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for either before the open or after the close.

In miscellaneous news, on Thursday, cocoa traded back above $10k per ton as the supply outlook worsens.  (The world’s top producer Ivory Coast halted exports for June and forward sales of next season’s crop on Thursday.)  Elsewhere, twice-impeached, convicted felon ex-President Trump said Thursday that, if elected, he would reduce corporate tax rates again, as well as considering cuts to other income tax rates (in addition to extending the tax cuts from his administration scheduled to sunset in 2025). This was part of his campaign to buy corporate donors and PAC support.  (The statement was made to a group of CEOs including JPM’s Dimon and AAPL’s Cook.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported some surprising data out of NY.  The report said average Manhattan apartment rents unexpectedly slipped in May, with new leases showing a 3.5% decline in price from a year earlier.

In geopolitical news, Russian “President” Putin made a propaganda announcement of his preconditions that Ukraine would need to meet before he would even begin peace negotiations (following 2.5 years of his unprovoked invasion and genocidal war against Ukraine).  Those preconditions include Ukraine ceding their provinces of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson to Russia.  (Russia illegally annexed those four oblasts after its invasion.  In addition, he demanded that Ukraine denounce and give up its long-standing ambition to join NATO.  (The latter would leave Ukraine as a target he can invade again without NATO retaliation, should they ever do anything he does not like or he just feels more prepared.)  These are all obvious non-starter conditions, but are intended as PR ahead of the global peace conference to be attended by 80-90 countries (Russia not invited).

In other news, interestingly, Elon Musk’s big $56 billion pay package win in the shareholder vote Thursday DOES NOT override the court ruling from five months ago, when Musk’s pay package was thrown out as egregious as part of a shareholder lawsuit.  However, the post-verdict vote could help his (technically TSLA’s) appeals of the verdict in the future.  Not one to let things alone, Musk told the board that “his Optimus humanoid robots” could make TSLA worth $25 trillion (which would be 55% the S&P 500’s combined value at today’s prices).  That figure should be weighed against TSLA’s current $580 billion value.

With that background, the Bears have control in the premarket this morning. The SPY and QQQ opened a bit higher but have put in large black-body candles since then. (However we should note they are both well up off the early session lows.) Meanwhile, DIA gapped lower to start the premarket and has also sold off since then. but again us up off the early session lows.) Again, SPY and QQQ sit at all-time highs as they wait for the open while DIA is 4.3% below its all-time high. So, Bears are in control this morning, but are coming from different starting places. Again, the short-term is mixed with DIA definitely bearish and SPY and QQQ clearly bullish. At the same time, the mid-term remains bullish in all three major index ETFs and the longer-term market remains very Bullish in trend. In terms of extension, QQQ is now extended far above its T-line and is badly in need of rest or pullback. Neither of the others are extended from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is back in the center of its oversold range. So, the bottom line is that outside of the QQQ, the market has room to run in either direction. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red this morning. However, it is again the two biggest TSLA (+1.35%) and NVDA (+0.03%) that are the ones holding onto green territory. Remember, its Friday, Pay Day, and that next Wednesday is a market holiday.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service