We start the week off with a little break in the middle easte goeplitical tensisons easing oil prices and setting up a morning gap. However, espect this week to be very volitile as earnigns reports ramp up to include some of the tech titians. At the end of the week we will get a GDP and a Core PCE inflation report likely to create some uncertainty as we wait. Bond yeilds this morning are already higher this morning in anticipation so watch carefully for the possible opening gap whipsaw we experienced every day last week.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Notable reports for Monday. Before Bell ACI, AZZ, BOH, TFC, VZ, & ZION. After The Bell, AGNC, ARE, BRO, CADE, CDNS, CALX, CLF, CR, ELX, GL, HSTM, HXL, IBTX, MEDP, NUE, PKG, PNFP, SAP, & SSD..
News & Technicals’
Tesla, the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer spearheaded by CEO Elon Musk, has implemented significant price reductions across several key markets, including China and Germany. This strategic move follows similar price cuts in the United States and comes amidst a backdrop of declining sales figures and escalating competition within the EV sector, particularly from Chinese manufacturers. The decision to lower prices marks a notable shift for Tesla, which reported a decrease in global vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, an occurrence not seen in almost four years, signaling a potential recalibration of its market approach in response to the intensifying industry dynamics.
In a significant development, Ukraine was granted a crucial respite over the weekend when the U.S. House of Representatives, after prolonged deliberations, endorsed a substantial $61 billion foreign aid package. The passage of this bill marks a pivotal moment, as it now advances to the Senate, where it is anticipated to receive the green light from the Democratic majority. The approval by the Senate is expected imminently, within the week, setting the stage for President Joe Biden’s final ratification. This legislative action is not just a procedural triumph but a lifeline for Ukraine, which urgently requires enhanced air defense systems, artillery, and ammunition. These resources are deemed essential for Ukraine to potentially shift the dynamics of the ongoing conflict.
Despite Huawei’s recent advancements in semiconductor technology, China still lags significantly behind the United States in this critical field, as stated by Secretary Raimondo. The gap underscores the complex landscape of global tech leadership, where breakthroughs are measured not just in isolated achievements but in sustained, cutting-edge innovation. The Biden administration asserts that its policies on chip exports are proving effective, reflecting a strategic approach to maintain the U.S.’s competitive edge and safeguard national security interests. As the semiconductor industry becomes increasingly intertwined with geopolitical concerns, the U.S. is poised to continue its vigilant stance on the export of these pivotal technologies.
The upcoming week heralds a pivotal juncture in the financial calendar, with a host of the globe’s most colossal corporations poised to unveil their earnings. An estimated 30% of the S&P 500 firms are on the docket to disclose their financial health. The current earnings season has presented a dichotomy of outcomes. On one hand, an impressive over 73% of reporting entities have surpassed analysts’ projections. On the other, the aggregate growth for Q1 appears to be treading water, with projections indicating a stagnant year-over-year growth, contrary to the anticipated 3% increase pre-season, as per FactSet’s insights. This mixed bag of financial revelations underscores the unpredictable nature of market performance amidst a fluctuating economic landscape. Expect a very volitle week of price action and watch for big point whipsaws particularly after the morning gaps.
Thursday saw markets start out bullish. The SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA gapped up 0.43%, and QQQ opened 0.15% higher. After 10-15 minutes of gathering themselves, all three major index ETFs rallied to the highs of the day at 11:25 a.m. However, then momentum reversed, and all three sold off steadily, reaching the lows of the day about 1:25 p.m. At that point, QQQ ground sideways in a tight range, near the lows, the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the large-cap index ETFs both rallied slightly the 90 minutes of the day. This action gave us black-bodied candles in all three major index ETFs. The SPY and DIA both printed a black Spinning Top that consolidated in the DIA. DIA also retested and failed its T-line (8ema) while SPY came nowhere near retesting and remains well below its T-line. At the same time, QQQ had a larger black body and continued its move down, also not retesting its T-line.
On the day, six of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-0.65%) out in front leading the way lower. Meanwhile, Communications Services (+0.70%) led the four green sectors higher. At the same time, SPY lost 0.19%, DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ lost 0.57%. VXX gained slightly to close at 14.97 and T2122 rose but remains deeply in the oversold territory at 4.03. 10-year bond yields popped up to 4.633% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $82.69 per barrel. So, overall, Thursday seemed like consolidation day in the large-cap index ETFs (especially the DIA) while QQQ continued South. NVDA (+0.76%) largely held the tech sector up itself with $35 billion in tis stock traded while TSLA (-3.57%) led most of the sector lower on $12.8 billion (2nd largest dollar amount traded). This all happened on less than average volume in the SPY and QQQ and a bit more than average volume in the DIA.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a touch lower than expected at 212k (compared to a forecast of 215k but in-line with the prior week’s 212k). On the ongoing side, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, were also just a bit lower than predicted at 1,812k (versus a forecast of 1,818k but also up slightly from the previous week’s 1,810k). At the same time, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index was stronger than anticipated, but still low, 15.5 (compared to a forecasted 1.5 and the March reading of 3.2). However, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index was down at -10.7 (versus the March -9.6 value). Later, March Existing Home Sales fell to 4.19 million (compared to 4.20 million forecast but down from the February 4.38 million). This was a 4.3% decrease month-on-month in March. At the same time, the US Leading Economic Indicator Index was weaker than expected at -0.3% (versus a -0.1% forecast and the February +0.2%). Later, after the close, Fed Balance Sheet showed a $32 billion drawdown (from $7.438 trillion last week to $7.406 trillion this week).
In FOMC speak, Atlanta Fed President Bostic (a hawk) indicated that was no hurry to cut rates. Bostic said inflation would be returning to the Fed’s 2% target more slowly than most expected. However, he said, “for me, that’s okay … I’m not in a mad dash hurry to get there” (indicating that continued relatively strong economy and a slowly declining inflation was a good thing). He then hurt the market’s feelings (expectations) by saying, “I’m of the view that things are going to be slow enough this year that we won’t be in a position to reduce our rates towards … the end of the year.” He continued, “If we can keep those things going, and inflation has the signs that it is moving to that target, I’m happy to just stay where we are.” Elsewhere, New York Fed President Williams (hawkish lean) echoed a similar refrain, saying, “I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut interest rates” (given the strength of the economy). Williams continued, “I think eventually…interest rates will need to be lower at some point, but the timing of that is driven by the economy.”
After the close, ISRG, NFLX, and WAL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, PPG missed on revenue while reporting in-line on earnings. It is worth noting that NFLX forward guidance disappointed and while they reported blow out subscriber growth in Q1 the said they will stop reporting subscriber growth in the future.
In stock news, on Thursday, GOOGL announced it had terminated 28 employees related to Wednesday’s employee sit-in protest of the company’s contract with the Israeli military. (Nine of the 28 had been arrested for refusing to leave GOOGL premises.) At the same time, the CEO of ME revealed (in a public filing) that they will take the company private. The CEO currently owns 20% of the total shares. Later, INTC announced it was the first chipmaker to complete the building of ASML’s new “High NA EUV” lithography machines. This gives INTC an edge in developing the next generation of denser chips over its competitors. (AMD was first to implement ASML’s previous generation of EUV machine and has enjoyed a technical edge since that time.) At the same time, UNH announced that its subsidiary unit (which was hacked in February) had suffered another issue processing batches of medical claims. However, UNH said the issue had been communicated to the customers involved and that the issue was resolved and the processing backlog was being eliminated. Later, a leading shareholder proxy advisory service recommended that shareholders vote against the reelection of five BRKB directors, citing concerns over both company climate change performance as well as general governance. (It is highly unlikely Warren Buffett loses a shareholder vote, since he himself owns 31.2% of the voting shares, nonetheless it is worth mentioning.)
Elsewhere, GOOGL announced it has consolidated its Research and DeepMind units to create one “Responsible AI” team. The division is tasked with all AI development and will be relocated to where the GOOGL AI models are being built and trained. In related news, META has released an early version of its new “Llama 3” AI model. At the same time, SNY said it would restructure its US commercial operations and cut an unknown number of jobs as part of “strategic streamlining.” After the close, NFLX said it experienced blowout subscriber growth in Q1, adding 9.33 million new subscribers. However, the company forecasted weaker growth in Q2.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the Dutch military intelligence agency published a report claiming that ASML (and some other tech companies in the Netherlands) have been and are under increasing attack by Chinese human-based and cyber espionage. The report said, unsurprisingly, these Chinese attacks have increased since the 2023 ban on selling ASML technologies to China. Later, the Dept. of Commerce announced MU will receive $6.1 billion in grants to help pay for new US chip plants. These include new plants in NY and ID. At the same time, the state of MI began receiving public comment on a proposal (filed in March) to increase the output of a MPC refinery in Detroit. The public hearing to review comments is set for May 28. Later, the Attorneys General of KY and WV filed suit to block the EPA rules requiring a reduction in tailpipe emissions between 2026 and 2032. (The GOP officials say it is “legally flawed and unrealistic” to reduce emissions by almost 50% over eight years.) At the same time, JPM filed suit against Russian, state-owned VTB Bank to recover $439.5 million from an account blocked after Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago. Later, the House moved ahead on a bill to force ByteDance to sell TikTok to a US owner or ban it from the US. (If the bill becomes law, CG, SQCF, and other major shareholders of ByteDance could be negatively impacted by a sale at “forced sale” prices.)
Elsewhere, JNJ won a FL trial brought by the family of a woman who died of ovarian cancer in 2019. The family had claimed JNJ talc had caused the cancer, but the jury was unconvinced. At the same time, a bipartisan US House committee released the findings of an investigation of US financial firms. The report found US finance firms (in particular BLK and MSCI) facilitated $6.5 billion of investments in blacklisted Chinese firms. The report called for legislation to ban such investments in sanctioned firms. Later, a US judge ruled BNPQY must face a lawsuit alleging the French bank aided the Sudan government commit genocide between 1997 and 2011 by providing banking services that were then prohibited by US law. The judge said there were too many fact linking the bank funding to the government abuses over the period. (The bank paid a $8.9 billion penalty to the US in 2014 to settle charges of criminal liability over the same actions. This civil case is being brought by Sudanese victims.)
Overnight, Asian markets were heavily on the red side with only two of 12 exchanges in the green. Taiwan (-3.81%), Japan (-2.66%), and Thailand (-2.13%) led the region lower. Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with only three of 15 bourses in the green at midday. The CAC (-0.41%), DAX (-0.81%), and FTSE (-0.71%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a down open to start Friday. The DIA implies a -0.21% open, the SPY is implying a -0.34% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.51% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 4.596% and Oil (WTI) is actually off 0.97% to $81.93 per barrel. All of these moves and numbers were largely precipitated by Israel’s retaliatory strike (for Iran’s retaliatory strike) on Iran and worry over another retaliation and escalation.
There is no major economic news scheduled for Friday. However, the major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT. There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.
In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Thursday afternoon that MCO (Moody’s) has noted that creditors have begun to demand extra protection and clamped down on “creative financing” techniques of junk-rated corporate loans. (Previous corporate loan documentation did not prohibit “double dipping,” which is where a company has one of its financing subsidiary’s obtain money, using the guarantee of the parent company to secure the loan. The subsidiary then turns around and loans the money raised to the parent corporation. The parent then uses the raised money as collateral to obtain yet another loan. Elsewhere, a bi-partisan group of Senators proposed legislation to accelerate the development of nuclear fusion reactors to provide the power to help meet growing demand as well as the needs of climate change-related power needs. Finally, it was widely reported that the MAGA faction and House Speaker Johnson had a surreal shouting match (in hushed tones but very animated) away from reporters but directly under visitors in the gallery of the House Floor. Reporting suggests Speaker Johnson will call votes on the three aid bills plus the TikTok ban bill Saturday and send them to the Senate…where they will have to be revoted for passage. The “Freedom Caucus” (and MTG in particular) threatened Thursday to make her motion to vacate privileged, which due to recess would call a Speaker vote sometime around the end of the month. (Betting is that the Democrats would save Johnson as compensation for him calling the foreign aid votes over the objections of the fringe elements of his own party.)
So far this morning, AXP, FITB, HBAN, SLB, and WIT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, PG missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, RF beat on revenue while missing on earnings. It is worth noting that PG has raised its forward guidance.
With that background, it looks as if the markets were scared by the Israeli attack (and/or news that the US had “signed off” on Israel’s plans for invading the Gaza city of Rafah in a way that purportedly will remove the civilians block by block rather than a wholesale attack from all directions). At any rate, the three major index ETFs gapped lower to start the premarket. However, all three have put in significant white-body candles and are now at the highs of the early session in what seems to be a notable rebound. In fact, all three are barely in the red at this point. (Perhaps rethinking how bad the geopolitical news is or expecting a flight to safety into US bonds and equities.) However, the SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain well below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term has also turned bearish and the longer-term market remains Bullish but trend is broken and is clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, the SPY and QQQ are a bit extended below their T-line but DIA is fine. Still, the T2122 indicator remains deep in its oversold range. So, at the very least, the Bears are in need of some more rest. (Just remember markets can remain oversold a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with NFLX (-5.75%) leading the move lower. However, the biggest of the big dogs, NVDA (+0.06%) is barely hanging onto green. (NVDA trades 2.5-3 times as much dollar volume than any other ticker, so it carries a big stick.) With all of this said, remember that it is Friday (and an options expiration Friday at that). So prepare your account for a weekend of (geopolitical?) news and perhaps political news in the US related to Speaker Johnson’s seat and US aid bills.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Markets started the day with a gap higher. SPY gapped up 0.51%, DIA opened 0.35% higher, and QQQ gapped up 0.44%. At that point, SPY chopped sideways for 15 minutes before starting a sell off that recrossed the gap and reached the lows of the day at 12:50 p.m. QQQ didn’t wait at all and also sold off reaching its lows at the same time. DIA actually followed through on its gap for 20 minutes before following the other two index ETFs South and reaching the lows or the day also at 12:50 p.m. From there, all three bounced in a two-hour rally that regained some of the lost ground only to sell back off for 20 minutes before grinding sideways into the close. The action gave us large, black candles that are definitely a Bearish Doji Continuation (Doji Sandwich) in the QQQ and SPY. DIA was more of a fat Spinning Top candle in a consolidation. None of the three really threatened a retest of the T-line and remain below. This happened on average volume in all three major index ETFs.
On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-1.34%) way out in front leading the way lower. Meanwhile, Utilities (+1.65%) was BY FAR (by more than 1.4%) the strongest sector. At the same time, SPY lost 0.59%, DIA lost 0.14%, and QQQ lost 1.22%. VXX lost almost one percent to close at 14.93 and T2122 fell even deeper into the oversold territory at 1.14. 10-year bond yields fell to 4.591% and Oil (WTI) plummeted 2.92% to close at $82.87 per barrel. So, overall, Wednesday was a Bearish day. DIA continued a consolidation along what might be a support area while the two leading index ETFs continued their move down. The buzz continues to be the market resetting its timing expectations for rate cuts, with talk now of fewer and a later start to those cuts working their way through what had been an expectation of a start in March. (At the moment, the first meeting where Fed Fund Futures show a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut is September, with only 29.1% thinking we will not have seen a rate cut by then.)
The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, which showed a larger inventory build than expected at +2.735 million barrels (compared to a forecasted +1.600 million barrels but down from the prior week build of 5.841 million barrels). Later, the February TIC Net Long-Term Transactions showed a much larger than predicted inflow of $71.5 billion (versus a forecast calling for $40.2 billion and much larger than January’s +14.0 billion). This is quite bullish for the US Dollar.
After the close, OZK, CCI, CSX, FNB, LVS, and WTFC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, AA, DFS, and SNV all beat on revenue while missing on earnings. On the other side, EFX and KMI missed on revenue while beating on earnings. Unfortunately, LBRT missed on both the top and bottom lines. It is worth noting that KMI raised its forward guidance.
In stock news, on Wednesday, TSLA asked shareholders to reapprove the $56 billion stock grant compensation package for CEO Musk. (That package had been thrown out by a court as ridiculous earlier this year.) Speaking of Musk, Reuters reports he will announce a new $2 billion – $3 billion investment in India during his trip there next week. At the same time, MBLY announced it has received orders for 46 million new “assisted driving” chips over the next few years. (The company did not disclose which auto companies placed the orders.) Later, AMKAF (Maersk AP Moller, a huge container shipper) announced that the Port of Baltimore alternate channels are not deep enough and the company will not be able to use the port until the channels are deepened or replaced. At the same time, LLY reported sleep apnea treatment success for its weight loss drug Zepbound. (The hope is that if approved for the additional condition, sales would increase.) Later, MSFT announced that it has found Russian influence operations targeting the 2024 US elections have already begun, picking up pace in the last 45 days. At the same time, GOOGL announced it is laying off an unspecified number of employees. GOOGL spokesmen said the affected employees can apply for other open slots inside the company and the cuts are not companywide.
Elsewhere, AMZN announced it will push “Just Walk Out” technology into third-party stores such as sports stadiums and airport retailers. This is interesting because AMZN itself is backing off its stand-alone “Just Walk Out” stores. In politics-related news, President Biden told a United Steel Worker rally Wednesday that he promises that X will remain a “totally American company,” despite X having agreed to a $14.9 billion buyout by Nippon Steel. (It is worth noting that many politicians on both sides of the aisle have taken that stance. However, Biden controls the FTC and other regulatory agencies that might actually stop the deal.) At the same time, RIVN announced it will cut 1% of its workforce in a second round of layoffs this year. (RIVN cut 10% of its jobs in February.)
In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the New York Times reported that the FTC is preparing to block the TPRI acquisition of CPRI for $8.5 billion on antitrust grounds. At the same time, ADSK announced it will not be able to submit its annual report within the 15-day grace period that was granted to it by NASDAQ. (The company said it will take the needed measures to regain compliance as soon as possible.) Later, the NHTSA announced that TM had recalled 135k Prius hybrid cars and has suspended taking new orders for the model due to a problem with rear door handles. At the same time, the European Data Protection Board (privacy watchdog) asked META to provide a free version of its online platforms without targeted ads. This comes after the group asked national regulators in Netherlands, Norway, and Germany to demand this of META. (This would be contrary to META’s entire ad-based business model.) Later, the NHTSA said F is recalling 457k pickup and SUVs over the loss of drive power and hazard lights during operation. (These are not electric vehicles.) At the same time, Reuters reported sources tell it that MSFT’s $13 billion investment into OpenAI will skirt EU antitrust laws and will not draw an investigation.
Elsewhere, UAL said that the FAA has prohibited it from putting new planes into service due to an ongoing investigation into UAL operations. The airline said a small number of new aircraft scheduled to come online in Q2 have had the schedule pushed back into Q3. At the same time, UAL said BA had agreed to compensate the airline for damages incurred in Q1 due to the grounding of 737 MAX 9 jets. Later, Reuters reported that the Biden administration will restore tariffs on solar panel products from China at the request of the US branch of South Korea’s Hanwha Qcells. (US solar stocks such as FSLR soared on the news.)
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green side with only four of 12 exchanges in the red. South Korea (+1.95%), Singapore (+1.05%), and Hong Kong (+0.82%) led the region’s gainers. In Europe, we also see mixed but leaning green bourses at midday. Only five of the 15 bourses are red as the CAC (+0.39%), DAX (+0.07%), and FTSE (+0.25%) lead the region higher on volume. In the US, as of 8:15 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.23% open, the SPY is implying a +0.23% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.24% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are at 4.592% and Oil (WTI) is off six-tenths of a percent to $82.18 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, and Philly Fed Mfg. Employment (all at 8:30 a.m.), March Existing Home Sales and US Leading Economic Indicator Index (both at 10 a.m.), Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.), and three Fed speakers (Bowman at 9:05 a.m., Williams at 9:15 a.m., and Bostic twice at 11 a.m. and 5:45 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, and TSM. Then, after the close, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL report.
In economic news later this week, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.
So far this morning, ALK, ALLY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, INFY, MMC, TSM, and TCBI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, GPC, MAN, NOK, and SNA all missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, KEY beat on revenue while missing on earnings. It is worth noting that DHI, GPC, and TSM all raised their forward guidance.
In miscellaneous news, the Dept. of Transportation Inspector General announced on Wednesday that his office has opened an investigation into FAA oversight of BA and its manufacturing of 737 and 787 jets. Later, after the close, US Trade Representative Tai told the US Senate that the US must take “decisive action” to protect US electric vehicles from heavily subsidized Chinese competition. Meanwhile, the Treasury Dept. announced it will not renew a license granted to Venezuela for oil imports into the US. This restores the sanctions on the Maduro regime. The current license expires today, but Treasury has issued a 45-day license to allow US companies to wind down their oil and gas business with Venezuela. (This is in response to Maduro’s regime repeatedly declaring different leading opposition candidates ineligible to run against Maduro.) After the close, nine GOOGL employees were arrested at the company’s NY and CA offices after conducting a sit-in protest over GOOGL’s $1.2 billion contract to provide the Israeli military cloud services.
With that background, it looks as if the market is slightly bullish but undecided in the premarket. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the early session, but have printed small, black-body inside day candles since then. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain well below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term has also turned bearish and the longer-term market remains Bullish but trend is broken and is clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far below their T-line, but the T2122 indicator is deeply in its oversold range. So, at the very least, the Bears are in need of some rest. (Just remember markets can remain oversold a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green early but the biggest mover by far is TSLA (-2.59%) pushing to the downside. So, be careful of whipsaws, but today is looking more indecisive again.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Tuesday saw a divergence at the open as SPY opened just 0.09% higher, QQQ opened 0.02% lower, but DIA gapped up 0.63%. However, after that, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways the rest of the day. The were a short 15-minute spike higher as soon as Fed Chair Powell finished speaking, but it sold right back down over the next 15-minutes. This action gave us indecisive Doji candles in the SPY (black body) and QQQ (white body). Meanwhile, DIA printed a gap-up, black-body candle. All three major index ETFs remains well below their T-line (8ema) and never came close to a retest. This happened on average volume in all three major index ETFs.
On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (+0.13%) the only sector able to hand onto green territory. Meanwhile, Utilities (-1.38%) was by far the weakest sector. At the same time, SPY lost 0.20%, DIA gained 0.18%, and QQQ gained 0.01%. VXX lost 3.40% to close at 15.08 and T2122 rose but remained deep in its oversold territory at 2.80. 10-year bond yields jumped higher again to 4.665% and Oil (WTI) was just on the red side of flat at $85.31 per barrel. So, Tuesday was a nothing day overall. However, DIA popped higher at the open (presumably on strong earnings data) but then also sold off harder than the other major index ETFs. The net result was an indecisive day where price ended up little moved. However, it could be said to be a rest day after Monday’s strong Bearish move (including Bull trap).
The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included March Building Permits, which came in lower than expected at 1.458 million (compared to a forecast of 1.514 million and the February reading of 1.523 million). At the same time, March Housing Starts were also down at 1.321 million (versus a forecast of 1.480 million and the Feb. value of 1.549 million). This amounted to a 14.7% decline from February after a 2.4% decline was forecasted. Later, March Industrial Production were just as anticipated at +0.4% (compared to a forecast of +0.4% and a February +0.4% reading). Then the API Weekly Crude Oil stocks
In FOMC speak, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson seemed to revert to the old “higher for longer” stance from late in 2023. Jefferson said, “it will be appropriate to hold in place the current restrictive stance of policy for longer (if inflation fails to slow as expected).” He continued, “My baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further, with the policy rate held steady at its current level, and that the labor market will remain strong, with labor demand and supply continuing to rebalance.” Later, Fed Chair Powell said, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.” However, he then continued, saying, “policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face.” (The latter statement easing fears of a rate hike somewhat.) He went on to summarize, “Right now, given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it’s appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us.” Then, Powell got into details, noting, “12 months core PCE inflation, which is one of the most important things, is estimated to have been little change in March.” In speaking about the labor market, Powell said, “Our labor market has been moving into better balance over the past year,” … “(Strong demand for workers) has been met by a substantial increase in the workforce due both to rising labor force participation and a substantial increase in immigration.”
After the close, HWC, IBKR, OMC, and UAL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. However, JBHT missed on both the top and bottom lines.
In stock news, on Tuesday, UNH said it would take a $1.6 billion hit in 2024 from the hack of its subsidiary which caused widespread and weeks-long shutdown of medical billing and reimbursement. At the same time, a JPM regulatory filing noted that CEO Dimon had completed the sale of $33 million of his JPM shares. This completed his previously planned 1 million share sale (out of 8.6 million shares held). Later MSFT announced it is investing $1.5 billion in G42, an UAE-based AI firm. (G42 is run by UAE’s national security adviser.) G42 said it would cut ties with Chinese hardware suppliers for its data centers as part of the deal. Elsewhere, AL state lawmakers have passed a bill barring the state from providing incentives to any company that voluntarily recognizes a union. (The bill is aimed at preventing union recognition prior to a vote of the workforce.)
In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, a US district judge dismissed 25 claims that were among the hundreds of cases filed against META, which allege the company concealed from the public that Facebook and Instagram were harmful to children. Th 25 claims dismissed has accused META CEO Zuckerberg of personal responsibility (and liability) for not disclosing this information to the public.
So far this morning, ABT, ASML, BKU, FHN, and USB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, CFG and TRV both beat on revenue while missing on earnings. (PLD reports closer to the opening bell.) It is worth noting that ASML has lowered forward guidance.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. Shenzhen (+2.48%), Shanghai (+2.14%), and Taiwan (+1.56%) led the gainers. Meanwhile, Thailand (-2.11%) and Japan (-1.32%) paced the losses. In Europe, the picture is much greener at midday with only two of 15 bourses in the red. The CAC (+1.23%), DAX (+0.51%), and FTSE (+0.60%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.22% open, the SPY is implying a +0.31% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.195 open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are flat at a high 4.657% and Oil (WTI) is off by half of a percent to $84.88 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday is limited to EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.) and the Fed Beige Book (2 p.m.). We also hear from Fed Members Mester (5:30 p.m.) and Bowman (6:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, PLD, TRV, and USB. Then, after the close, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, LBRT, SNV, and WTFC report.
In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, March Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, and Bostic twice). Finally, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, TSM, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL. Lastly, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.
In geopolitical news, Russia has stepped up its bombing of Kharkiv (Ukraine’s second largest city) in an attempt to make it the city uninhabitable. The new strategy is massive bombing of residential housing and utilities and then following up with a “double tap” (second wave of attacks on the same targets) one to two hours later. The idea is that if the population is denied water, electric, and housing …and rescuers as well as aid workers are also taken out…then the city will become uninhabitable. This is designed to force the 1.4 million people living in Kharkiv to flee to other cities, opening up Kharkiv for conquest and putting additional stress on cities further West due to the immigrant flows. (It also becomes harder to defend a location while also allowing the civilian population to pass through said position.) Elsewhere, Treasury Sec. Yellen said Tuesday that new sanctions on Iran are being considered. Yellen, talked about not only the attack on Israel, but also Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea that are impacting global economic stability. She told the AP that she will be working with her counterparts at the IMF Spring Meeting this week to hammer out another round of sanctions on the Iranian regime.
In miscellaneous news, the SEC now blocked the use of third-party messaging apps and texts from Wall Street firm employee phones. Elsewhere, in political news, the House GOP, and especially the Twitter faction of the GOP, have brought drama and discord back to the House. House Speaker Johnson told the GOP Caucus that he intends to bring forth four separate individual bills this week, one for military aid to Ukraine, one for military aid for Israel, one for military aid for Taiwan and the Philippines (to hold China in check), and a final bill to ban TikTok from the US. This did not go over well with the far-right MAGA faction. (Even if they are separate votes.) Specifically, Rep. Massie (KY), asked Johnson to resign as Speaker. He then told reporters he supports and seconds the previous MTG motion to vacate the Speaker. Beyond that drama, if the four bills are brought for a vote, all are expected to pass. Then for some procedural reason they will be delivered to the Senate as one packaged bill. The Senate GOP does not like that idea as they have already passed aid to the first three and don’t want to vote on the TikTok bill. (One of the largest GOP donors, Jeff Yass, owns about $30 billion of TikTok’s parent corporation ByteDance while BLK also owns a similar-sized piece. A forced sale could cost both billions.)
With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are trying again this morning, but are having only small and not particularly decisive gains in any of the three major index ETFs. All three are giving us small, white-bodied candles in the premarket. However, all three have larger upper wicks (compared to the candle bodies). The SPY, DIA, and QQQ all remain well below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term has also turned bearish and the longer-term market remains Bullish but trend is broken and is clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, all three of the major index ETFs now a fair distance below their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deeply in its oversold range. So, at the very least, the Bears are in need of some rest. (Just remember markets can remain oversold a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green early with only INTC (-0.39%) pushing to the downside. Be careful of whipsaws, but today is looking more indecisive again.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Markets gave us a Bull trap Monday as SPY gapped up 0.82%, DIA gapped up 0.91%, and QQQ gapped up 0.86%. However, that was the last of the joy for the Bulls as we then started an all-day, wavy sell off in all three major index ETFs that recrossed the gap and continued strongly South. All three then flattened out the last 40 minutes of the day. The action gave up large, gap-up, outside day, black candles with tiny wicks on the bottom of the body. SPY and QQQ retested and failed their T-lines (8emas). This all happened on above-average volume in all three major index ETFs.
On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.01%) way out in front leading the market lower. Meanwhile, it was Communications Services (-0.15%) that held up far better than any other sector. At the same time, SPY lost 1.23%, DIA lost 0.66%, and QQQ lost 1.65%. VXX spiked another 5.54% higher to close at a still very historically low 15.61 and T2122 dropped even further into the low end of its oversold territory at 1.73. 10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.612% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $85.65 per barrel. So, Monday was the Bear’s Day again. The three major index charts all look clearly bearish now. However, it is worth remembering that the worst of the index ETFs (DIA) is still less that 5.75% from its all-time high (not below the high close, close, but down from the actual all-time high). So, we aren’t truly in a Bear market and not even in a correction at this point…at least yet.
The major economic news scheduled for Monday included March Core Retail Sales, which came in extremely hot at +1.1% (compared to a +0.5% forecast and February’s +0.6% reading). Meanwhile, March Retail Sales was not as hot as the “core” at +0.7% (versus a +0.4% forecast but down from February’s +0.9%). At the same time, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index was weaker than predicted at -14.30 (compared to a -5.20 forecast but better than February’s -20.90). Later, February Business Inventories rose more than anticipated at +0.4% (versus a +0.3% forecast and a +0.0% January value). At the same time, February Retail Inventories also were +0.4% (compared to a +0.4% forecast and up a tick from January’s +0.3%).
In stock news, on Monday, BP announced it had cut over 10% of its electric vehicle charging business unit workforce (still only 100 jobs) as well as pulling out of several markets. BP said its bet on rapid growth in commercial EV fleets just didn’t pay off. (BP will continue its operations in the US, Britain, Germany, and China markets while pulling out of eight other countries.) At the same time, Clearlake Capital announced it had indeed offered to acquire BLKB for $80 per share. (This was a premium over Friday’s $76.72 close and well above Clearlake’s original $71/share offer.) Later, BNPQY (BNP Paribas) agreed to buy a 9% stake in Belgian Insurer Ageas for $780 million. This makes the French bank the largest shareholder in Ageas. At the same time, Reuters reported that EQT will sell some of its PA state Natural Gas assets to EQNR in exchange for $500 million and some of EQNR’s “Appalachian Basin” assets.
Elsewhere, ADBE announced it is in the early stages of letting OpenAI and other AI tools into its widely-used video editing software. The company would allow those tools in via an app, which could then be monetized. At the same time, TSLA confirmed it will lay off 10% of its global workforce (about 14,000 jobs) as electric vehicle sales fall. Later, GM announced it will move its headquarters to new skyscraper offices further into downtown Detroit after 20 years in its riverfront campus.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, META announced it will temporarily suspend Threads (its Twitter knock off) in Turkey on April 29 to comply with provisional orders from the Turkish competition authority. (META also said it will appeal the order.) Later, COIN asked two courts for permission to appeal part of its lawsuit against the SEC. At the same time, TPR received both EU and Japanese approval for its $8.5 billion deal to buy CPRI, (US approval from the FTC is still pending.) Later, MGM sued the FTC in hope of blocking an FTC probe into the casino’s 2023 hack that hobbled it last year. The MGM suit claims the FTC has no jurisdiction because the company feels it is not subject to consumer financial data rules since it is not an interstate bank. At the same time, the NHTSA said it has opened an investigation into 2023 GM Cadillac Lyric cars over the loss of brake assist during operation. At the same time, PLL announced it had received NC state approval for its lithium “mining” operations and can begin the required construction.
Elsewhere, the US State Dept. approved the sale of “aircraft support” for training and support aircraft to Iraq. This will result in a $140 million contract for NOC. At the same time, AVGO was questioned by EU antitrust regulators over change (massive price increases, as much as 20x in cases) in its pricing after its acquisition of VMW. (In many cases AVGO changed VMW to a subscription-only model, simply telling customers who had bought lifetime licenses they now will pay annually or lose access to what they bought.) Later, LMT was awarded a $17 billion contract to develop the next generation of interceptors for use against incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported the US Dept. of Justice is preparing an antitrust lawsuit against LYV.
Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Taiwan (-2.68%), Shenzhen (-2.29%), and South Korea (-2.28%) led the region lower on broad-based and large losses. Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at midday with only one of 15 bourses in the green (barely). The CAC (-1.23%), DAX (-1.31%), and FTSE (-1.40%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed bounce after Monday’s downdraft. The DIA implies a +0.50% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.01% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are popping again to 4.651% and Oil (WTI) is off 0.28% to $85.17 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes March Building Permits and March Housing Starts (both at 8:30 a.m.), March Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), and API Weekly Crude Oil stocks (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed member Williams (12:30 p.m.) and Fed Chair Powell (1:15 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BAC, BK, ERIC, JNJ, MS, NTRS, PNC, and UNH. Then, after the close, AMX, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL report.
In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and the Fed Beige Book are reported. We also hear from Fed Members Mester and Bowman. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, March Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, and Bostic twice). Finally, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, PLD, TRV, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, LBRT, SNV, and WTFC report. On Thursday, we hear from ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, TSM, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL. Lastly, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.
So far this morning, BAC, BK, CBSH, JNJ, MS, PNC, and UNH all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ERIC missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, NTRS crushed on revenue (doubling expectations) but also missed significantly on earnings. The only guidance out so far is from PNC, which lowered its forward guidance.
In miscellaneous news, several Israelis, including PM Netanyahu and the spokesman for Israeli Defense Forces said they will retaliate against Iran for the weekend’s large, telegraphed, and ineffective retaliatory strike on their country. Israel said it would choose the time and place, but diplomacy is holding so far with hope that Israel will just strike Iranian proxies which participated, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, and various Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq. Elsewhere, Chinese GDP was above pace in Q1 at +5.3%. However, most of that growth came in January and February as the country’s economy slumping in March. Both Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Output fell well short of estimates in March in addition to a decline in home sales. For his part, Chinese President Xi made statements pushing back on US and EU pressure to refocus the Chinese economy away from industrial growth and toward stimulating consumer spending.
With that background, it looks as if the Bulls are trying to rebound from Monday’s drubbing but are not having a ton of success yet. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket flat, traded lower, and have pushed back higher to form white-body candles that are in the green compared to Monday’s huge black candle. (DIA has done by far the best job of this push-back.) However, only a small fraction of Monday’s losses have been recovered so far in the early session. The SPY, DIA, and QQQ remain well below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term has also turned bearish and the longer-term market remains Bullish but trend is broken and is clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, all three of the major index ETFs now a fair distance below their T-line and the T2122 indicator is deeply in its oversold range. So, at the very least, the Bears are in need of some rest. (Just remember markets can remain oversold a lot longer than we can stay solvent predicting a reversal.) In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, seven of the 10 are in the green early with only TSLA (-2.40%) truly pushing to the downside (more than 2.1% worst off than the other nine big dogs so far in the premarket.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Fridays brought us a gap lower to start the day. SPY gapped down 0.69%, DIA gapped down 0.58%, and QQQ gapped down 0.97%. At that point, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways in a tight range. DIA broke out of its sideways mover first, heading South shortly after 10 a.m. Meanwhile, SPY and QQQ followed DIA by starting their selloffs at 10:30 a.m. Those selloffs continued in waves the rest of the day in all three with just a modest bounce up off the lows the last 40 minutes. This action gave us gap-down, black-bodied candles with both upper and lower wicks. The SPY and QQQ candles also crossed back below their T-lines (8ema). This all happened on average volume in all three major index ETFs.
On the day, all 10 sectors were in the red with Technology (-2.09%) and Consumer Cyclicals (-2.08%) out in front leading the rest of the market lower. Meanwhile, it was Utilities (-1.09%) holding up better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 1.38%, DIA lost 1.20%, and QQQ lost 1.59%. VXX spiked 8.83% higher to close at a still historically low 14.79 and T2122 dropped back down the very low end of oversold territory at 2.92. 10-year bond yields dropped to 4.52% and Oil (WTI) gained 0.55% to $85.49 per barrel. So, Friday was the Bear’s Day. Markets gapped lower briefly held up and then resumed their move down (albeit in a wavy motion) the rest of the day, ending on a modest up wave.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday included March Export Price Index, which came in lower but as expected at +0.3% (compared to a +0.3% forecast but well down from February’s +0.7% value). At the same time, the March Import Price Index was higher than anticipated at +0.4% (versus both forecast and February values of +0.3%). Later, Michigan Consumer Sentiment was lower than predicted at 77.9 (compared to a 79.0 forecast and 79.4 March value). At the same time, Michigan Consumer Expectations were also down a bit at 77.0 (versus the 77.6 forecast and March 77.4 reading). Meanwhile, the Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations were up to +3.1% (versus a +2.9% forecast and March value). On a longer timeframe, the Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations were also higher at +3.0% (compared to a forecast and March reading of +2.8%).
In FOMC speak, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said inflation was too high for the central bank to cut interest rates. Schmid said, “With inflation still running above 2 percent and labor markets still tight, it is appropriate that monetary policy remain restrictive.” He went on to say, “achieving better balance in the labor market will likely be necessary (before cutting).” Later, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said, “We’ve had multiple (CPI) inflation readings that were higher than we wanted, but PCE is the better measure…If we start getting better (PCE) readings that show us that arc of inflation coming down…that will make us feel a lot better about where we are…If PCE is reinflating – we will stabilize prices.” Goolsbee went on to repeat previous comments that housing inflation is the most important and damaging area to watch. Still later, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that there is no urgency to cut rates. She said, “Policy’s in a good place right now, and I need to be fully confident that inflation is on track to come down to 2%, which is our definition of price stability, before we would consider a rate cut.”
In stock news, on Friday, Reuters reported that sources now indicate that HUBS may be considering a non-GOOGL acquisition suitor. The sources indicated that potential antitrust opposition and difficulty may force HUBS to go a different route, despite GOOGL having been working with MS to secure financing for an all-cash bid to buy HUBS. Later, the Wall Street Journal reported that a pet osteoarthritis drug from ZTS has been found to be linked to various adverse health events. (ZTS gapped lower and closed down 7.84% on the news.) At midday, despite political and potential regulatory opposition, X shareholders approved the $14.9 billion takeover bid from Nippon Steel. Later, ROKU said that more than 576k of its customer accounts were impacted by a second cyberattack that the company identified while investigating a different hack of 15,000 customer accounts. ROKU said that hackers did not gain access to “full credit card numbers” and it has identified only 400 cases where the stolen information was used to make unauthorized purchases of streaming service subscriptions. At the same time, Reuters reported that SPR is limiting overtime and halted hiring as production declines due to BA’s lower output of 737 MAX planes. After the close, TSLA said it cut the price of its “Full Self Driving” subscription by more than 50% (from $199/mo. to $99/mo.) as it seeks to drive broader adoption amidst weakening demand. Also after the close, GOOGL announced it is beginning the process of removing links to CA news articles for CA-located viewers. This is in response to a CA bill (not passed yet) that would require content providers to pay CA news sites for content. Then, on Saturday, Reuters reported that CRM is in advanced talks to buy INFA. (INFA has a market value of $38.48 billion as of Friday.)
In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday a Brazilian judge suspended the Chairman of PBR over having a conflict of interest now that he also holds the Minister of Energy role in the Brazilian government. (The court previously suspended another board member citing the company’s failure to comply with company bylaws when appointing that board member.) At the same time, AAPL lost its motion to dismiss a $1 billion lawsuit in the UK which alleges the company charged 1,500 UK-based app developers unfair commission fees on the purchase of their apps while prohibiting them from selling the apps through other channels. Later, the EU approved ILMN’s plans to divest cancer diagnostic test maker Grail. (The EU Competition Committee had ordered the divestiture in 2022, even though ILMN had closed the deal before the EU decision was made.) At the same time, UBER and LYFT announced they will remains in operation in Minneapolis after the City Council there voted Wednesday to delay implementation of its $15.57/hour minimum wage for rideshare drivers until July 1st. Later, the US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 throwing out a lower court ruling that will allow a broad group of truck drivers and other transport workers to file employment lawsuits rather than submit to arbitration. (The lower court had ruled that the plaintiff did not qualify to sue because, even though he was a truck driver, his company sold the goods he delivered rather than transportation services.) The ruling is a huge blow to AMZN, WMT, and many other companies that employ delivery and transport workers that may have causes for action.
Elsewhere, the NHTSA announced it is opening an investigation into the F recall of 42,000 SUVs over fuel leak concerns. F is planning to make a software update rather than replace fuel injectors that may crack and leak. At the same time, the US Supreme Court ruled 9-0 companies “failing to disclose impactful trends” is not securities fraud. Later, AAPL denied it has been violating court orders governing its App Store. AAPL told a US district judge Rogers (who had overseen the Epic Games lawsuit against AAPL) that rather than violating the court orders, it was just trying to prevent AAPL “tools and technologies” from being given to app developers for free. They went on to say Epic wants the court to micromanage AAPL App Store operations in order to make Epic more profitable. (Oddly, yes that was the whole point of the original lawsuit. To force competition in a way that would allow Epic to be more profitable by not paying AAPL 30% of every sale and prohibit them selling through other channels.) After the close, US House GOP representatives criticized the Biden Administration, blaming the President for somehow allowing INTC to sell chips to Huawei, which allowed the Chinese phone maker to unveil a new laptop powered by an INTC “AI chip.” (The chips were shipped to China under a 2019, Trump Administration granted, license that were excluded from Trump era sanctions and not subject to Biden-era sanctions.)
Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side with only Shenzhen (+1.53%) and Shanghai (+1.26%) in the green. Taiwan (-1.38%), India (-1.10%), and Singapore (-1.04%) paced the 10 losing exchanges. Meanwhile, in Europe, we see mostly green at midday. 11 of the 15 bourses are in the green with the CAC (+0.87%), DAX (+0.89%), and FTSE (-0.32%) leading the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a green start to the week. The DIA implies a +0.34% open, the SPY is implying a +0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.55% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields have spiked back up to 4.581% (perhaps somewhat on a safety trade after the Iran-Israeli weekend news) and Oil (WTI) is off eight-tenths of a percent to $85.00 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes March Core Retail Sales, March Retail Sales, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 a.m.), Feb. Business Inventories and Feb. Retail Inventories (both at 10 a.m.), and Fed member Daly speaks. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GS, MTB, and SCHW. There are no major reported set for after the close.
In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get March Building Permits, March Housing Starts, March Industrial Production, and API Weekly Crude Oil stocks. Then on Wednesday, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories and the Fed Beige Book are reported. We also hear from Fed Members Mester and Bowman. On Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment, March Existing Home Sales, US Leading Economic Indicator Index, Fed Balance Sheet, and three Fed speakers (Bowman, Williams, and Bostic twice). Finally, there are no major economic news scheduled for Friday.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday we hear from BAC, BK, ERIC, JNJ, MS, NTRS, PNC, UNH, AMX, IBKR, JBHT, OMC, and UAL. Then Wednesday, ABT, ASML, CFG, FHN, PLD, TRV, USB, AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, LVS, LBRT, SNV, and WTFC report. On Thursday, we hear from ALK, AALY, BX, CMA, DHI, ELV, GPC, INFY, KEY, MAN, MMC, NOK, SNA, TSM, ISRG, NFLX, PPG, and WAL. Lastly, on Friday AXP, FITB, HBAN, PG, RF, SLB, and WIT report.
So far this morning, GS and MTB reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. (SCHW reports closer to the open.)
In geopolitical news, on Saturday, as expected, Iran launched over 300 drones, cruise, and ballistic missiles toward Israel. This attack was Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s April 1 airstrike destroying a building of the Iranian embassy in Syria. (That Israeli strike killed 16 people, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Generals.) The US shot down 75 of the Iranian drones and missiles with Israel shooting down the vast majority of the rest. It is interesting that Iran signaled the attack beforehand (by telling the US to get out of the way so they don’t get hit) and had already announced that they consider the matter complete unless Israel retaliates…making that announcement before most of the drones and missiles had even reached Israeli airspace. There were no deaths and one injury from the Iranian attack as well as minimal damage to the air base from which the Israeli April 1 attack was launched. President Biden spoke to Israeli PM Netanyahu urging him to “take the win” (two major Iranian military commanders killed, versus no Israeli deaths at all AND another public demonstration of the power of Israeli air defenses). Biden also led G7 leaders to making a public statement of unconditional support for Israel without any mention of the Israeli strike in Damascus. As of Sunday, these efforts had won the day with PBS reporting that Israeli War Cabinet resources said an immediate retaliatory strike had been called off following the Biden call. Still, Netanyahu has publicly vowed Israeli retaliation at a later time. In short, diplomacy is in control in the short term. However, tensions are high and oil markets, while calming, are still likely to be on edge.
In late-breaking news, AAPL iPhone sales saw their steepest decline since COVID hit. Chinese sales in particular fell sharply as Huawei, Xiaomi, Transsion, and OPPO made significant market share gains. Later, Reuters reported sources and an internal TSLA memo during premarket that said TSLA plans to lay off 10% of its workforce globally.
With that background, it looks as if the Bulls have gapped all three major index ETFs higher to start the premarket. However, all three are also printing indecisive, small-body candles after the gap up. QQQ is retesting its T-line (8ema) from below. However, SPY, DIS, and QQQ remain below their T-line. So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range in the SPY and QQQ, where it is fair to say the Bulls are under strong pressure from the Bears. The DIA has already turned Bearish in the mid-term. Longer-term, markets remain Bullish but clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is now deeply in its oversold range. So, both sides could run if the find some momentum, but the Bulls have much more slack to work with at this point. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green this morning with only AAPL (-0.60%) and TSLA (-1.54%) pushing to the downside on bad premarket news.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Markets opened higher Thursday as SPY gapped up 0.30%, DIA gapped up 0.24%, and QQQ gapped up 0.42% at the open. At that point, all three major index ETFs sold off, recrossing the gap and reaching the lows of the day about 10:30 a.m. From there, all three rallied steadily until 2:45 p.m. before limping sideways with a modest bearish trend the rest of the session. This action gave us a gap-up, white-bodied Spinning Top type candle in the SPY that crossed just back up above its T-line (8ema). Meanwhile, QQQ gave us a gap-up, large, white-bodied candle that crossed strongly above its T-line. At the same time, DIA gave us a modest ga-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top and outside day candle. This happened on just above-average volume in the DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.
On the day, only four of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.53%) way out in front (by more than a percent) leading the market higher. Meanwhile, it was Financial Services (-0.52%) was the biggest laggard. At the same time, SPY gained 0.75%, DIA was flat, gaining 0.01%, and QQQ gained 1.60%. VXX fell 2.02% to close at very low 13.58 and T2122 climbed out of the oversold territory to remain at the low end of its mid-range at 23.53. 10-year bond yields climbed again to 4.582% and Oil (WTI) fell 0.71% to $85.60 per barrel. So, Thursday, saw a more modest reaction to the upside on good PPI data after Wednesday’s strong reaction to the downside on bad CPI data. However, we also saw some whipsaw with a rejection of the gap and then a slow, steady reaffirmation of the gap sentiment.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday included the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which came in a bit lower than expected at 211k (compared to a 216k forecast but down from the prior week’s 222k). For ongoing claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims were higher at 1,817k (versus a forecast of 1,800k and up from the prior week’s 1,789k). At the same time, the March Core PPI (month-on-month) were as predicted at +0.2% (compared to a +0.2% forecast and down from February’s +0.3%). On an annual basis, March Core PPI actually increased to +2.4% (versus a +2.3% forecast and the February +2.1% reading). On the headline side, March PPI (month-on-month) was lower than anticipated at +0.2% (compared to a +0.3% forecast and well down from February’s +0.6%). On an annual basis, March PPI was lower than predicted at +2.1% (versus a forecast of +2.2% but well of up the +1.6% in March 2023). After the close, the Fed Balance Sheet was reported as down $2 billion on the week at $7.438 trillion (compared to the prior week’s $7.440 trillion).
In FOMC speak, Thursday, NY Fed President Williams told a banking group that they (banks) should be ready to tap the Fed liquidity using the Fed Discount Window if or when they face liquidity crunches. Williams also said he still expects progress on inflation, although he believes there will be “bumps along the way.” Later, Boston Fed President Collins stuck to the FOMC script, saying she sees no urgency to cut rates. Collins said, “I do expect it will be appropriate to begin lowering the federal funds rate later this year,” … (However) “recent data suggest it may take more time than I had previously thought to gain greater confidence in inflation’s downward trajectory, before beginning to ease policy.” Collins went on to say she had “Less concern about labor market fragilities, combined with the possibility that policy is only modestly restrictive, also reduces the urgency to ease.” Elsewhere, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that “the latest numbers (it is unclear if this included PPI but did include CPI) did not increase my confidence” that price pressures are easing on a broad basis (which would be the prerequisite for his voting to cut rates).
In stock news, on Reuters reported Thursday that Norway’s largest pension fund (KLP) is planning to ask TSLA to begin collective bargaining at the upcoming shareholder meeting. The crux of the issue is the Swedish TSLA mechanics strike, but the fund said the issue of collective bargaining was a broader issue. Later, VLVLY (Volvo and Mack Truck) said it will build a new heavy-duty truck plant in Mexico to supplement its US production. The plant is scheduled to be operational in 2026. At the same time, Bloomberg reported that private equity firm Clearlake is in talks for another attempt to take BLKB private. (Clearlake already owns 18.9% of BLKB.) Elsewhere, Bloomberg also reported that AAPL is “nearing” an overhaul of its Mac computer line which would gain AI processing capability due to a new ARM-based CPU labeled “M4.” Bloomberg says AAPL is expecting to unveil this new line at its June developer’s conference. (Mac sales fell 27% in the fiscal year ended in September. It unveiled new M3 Macs in October.)
Later, F announced it will begin shipping 144k redesigned F-150 and Ranger pickups to dealers. The trucks were built, but held back until now to deal with quality problems. (F spent $4.8 billion in 2023 to deal with warranty repairs.) At the same time, F reduced prices on various F-150 Lightning electric trucks by as much as $5,500. Later, ADM expanded its recall of animal feed due to harmful levels of magnesium, calcium, sodium, and/or phosphorous. At the same time, LUV told Reuters its expected deliveries of BA jets keep shrinking. In March, LUV said they expected 46 new 737 MAX planes in 2024. Now it expects only 20 of the planes this year, which will significantly impact operations. This impacts not only capacity, but also costs since older jets cannot be retired and are more expensive to maintain.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Thursday, the FAA issued a public notice of an airworthiness directive for BA 747-400F jets. The directive would force all such jets to have cap seals to fastener collars inside the plan’s fuel tanks. This came after FAA 737 investigations identified that BA had not been applying cap seals during production in order to cut costs. At the same time, HPQ was hit with a trademark infringement suit from WEX, alleging HPQ is infringing on its trademark by naming a software product “HPQ Wex.” Later, China sanctioned GD and a privately-held firm (General Atomics Aeronautical Systems) for selling arms to Taiwan. (China seized and froze property of the two companies over the arms sales.) At the same time, Reuters reported that UBS will need to retain between $10 billion and $15 billion in additional capital to meet new capitalization requirements from the Swiss government. This could put a “serious dent” in UBS share buyback plans for 2024. Later, BHC won the appeal of the verdict which barred rival Alvogen from marketing a proposed generic version of Bausch’s diarrhea treatment until 2029.
Meanwhile, the EU announced it will decide on approval of Nippon Steel’s acquisition of X by May 17. However, the approval is just a formality since neither company is headquartered in Europe and there are no competition concerns with either company at this time. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that MS is under investigation by multiple regulators, including the SEC, Office of the Comptroller of Currency, and various Treasury Dept. sub-agencies. The investigations stem from the bank’s “lax” vetting of potential wealth management clients (true identities and how the client’s raised their wealth) focusing on foreign clients. Elsewhere, Wednesday’s EPA announcement of new limits on toxic forever chemicals (PFAS) in water is expected to lead to a huge surge in lawsuits against MMM, DD, CC, CTVA, DOW, and other chemical makers who have dumped the chemicals into US waterways and ground water for decades. (MMM settled a $10.3 billion suit with some US water systems in 2023, while CC, DD, and CTVA settled their own suit for $1.19 billion. The EPA has given water utilities three years to meet strict “less than 10 parts per trillion” PFAS guidelines. So, many new suits are expected as local water systems are unable to pay for the mitigation needed to remove PFAS from their water. (PFAS are linked to many health conditions including liver problems, cholesterol level change, immune system deficiencies, high blood pressure, certain cancers, and many others. The impacts are dosage and individual dependent.)
Overnight, Asian markets were nearly red across the board, with only Japan (+0.21%) in the green. Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-2.18%), India (-1.03%) and South Korea (-0.93%) led the region lower. However, in Europe, we see a green sweep across the board at midday. The CAC (+0.73%), DAX (+0.79%), and FTSE (+1.10%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade. In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing to a down start to the day. The DIA implies a -0.32% open, the SPY is implying a -0.44% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.59% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are “down” to 4.526% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.14% to $85.98 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes March Import Price Index and March Export Price Index (both at 8:30 a.m.), Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (all at 10 a.m.). Fed member Bostic also speaks at 2:30 p.m. The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.
So far this morning, BLK, JPM, STT and WFC have all reported strong beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. (C and PGR report closer to the opening bell.) It is interesting to note that JPM is down sharply on this very good news. WFC was even more volatile in the premarket but has settled on the green side after its report. BLK and STT just gained on their beats, with BLK up 2.5% and STT up 3.75% so far on the news in the early session.
In energy news, on Thursday, Reuters reported that the UAE’s national oil company recently held talks with an aim toward acquiring BP. Ultimately, the UAE decided BP would not be the right strategic fit. However, this raises the idea that the incredibly deep-pocketed company could target any oil major if it was considering the $112 billion market cap BP. In other energy news, the Interior Dept. announced on Thursday that it had surpassed its goal of permitting 25 gigawatts of clean energy projects for public lands by 2025. As of now, the agency said they have permitted 29 GW of projects on public lands or enough to power 12 million homes. 32 GW of new projects are at various stages of approval.
In miscellaneous news, Rho Motion (market research firm) reported Thursday evening that global electric vehicle sales rose 12% during March (compared to March 2023). However, the increase was uneven with China seeing a 27% increase, the US a 15% increase, but Europe seeing a 9% decrease versus the prior year. The firm had earlier predicted a 25% to 30% increase in 2024 but now says it anticipates EV sales to come in at the lower end of its projections. Elsewhere, both the largest US airlines and their unions have asked President Biden to not approve any more flights between the US and China because of what they call “anti-competitive” policies that China is imposing on US air carriers. (In addition, Chinese airlines are allowed to fly shorter routes between the two countries by flying through Russian airspace, which US airlines cannot do.)
With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control again this morning. All three major index ETFs have printed modest (but certainly not small) black body candles to begin the premarket. The QQQ remains above its T-line (8ema) while the SPY has crossed below and DIA remains below their respective T-lines. So the short-term trend mostly bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range in the SPY and QQQ, where it is fair to say the Bulls are under strong pressure from the Bears. However, the DIA has already turned Bearish in the mid-term. Longer-term, markets remain Bullish but clearly under pressure. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line. In addition, the T2122 indicator is now out of the oversold range but remains at the low end of its mid-range. So, both sides still have some room to run but clearly the Bulls have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red again this morning with only NFLX (+0.29%) and AMZN (+0.03%) hanging onto the green area. With that said, remember its Friday…pay day…so prepare your account for the weekend news cycle and don’t forget to cut yourself a check. (Tax day is Monday.)
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
On Wednesday, stocks gapped down after a tick upward in the CPI number. The SPY gapped down 1.11%, DIA gapped down 1.02%, and QQQ gapped down 1.22% at the open. However, from there, all three major index ETFs chopped sideways, wobbling along the opening level the rest of the day. This action gave us gap-down, indecisive candles in all three. The SPY printed a white-body Doji, the DIA printed a black-body Doji, and the QQQ printed a white-body Spinning Top. SPY and QQQ also gapped down through and remained below its T-line (8ema). This happened on above-average volume in the DIA and QQQ while SPY printed slightly below-average volume.
On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were in the red as Utilities (-2.15%) was out in front leading the market lower. Meanwhile, Energy (+0.15%) was the only green sector and held up much better than the other sectors. At the same time, SPY lost 1.00%, DIA lost 1.11%, and QQQ lost 0.87%. VXX gained 1.91% to close at a still very low 13.86 and T2122 plummeted down into the oversold territory at 10.53. 10-year bond yields spiked again to 4.548% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.15% to $86.22 per barrel. So, on Wednesday, saw significant gap lower but then almost nothing except modest chop sideways the rest of the session.
The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday included March Core CPI (month-on-month), that came in flat which made it a tick hotter than expected at +0.4% (compared to +0.3% forecast and a +0.4% February reading). On an annual basis, March Core CPI also came in flat at +3.8% (versus to a forecast of +3.7% and the Feb. +3.8% value). This led to a March CPI (month-on-month) of +0.4%, again flat but hotter than expected compared to a forecast of +0.3% and a February +0.4%. On an annual basis, March CPI was +3.5% (compared to a +3.4% forecast and a up from the February +3.2% number). Later, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories rose more than was predicted at +5.841 million barrels (versus a forecasted 0.900-million-barrel build, and even more than the prior week’s 3.210-million-barrel inventory build). Later yet, the March Federal Budget Balance showed a larger than anticipated deficit of -$236.0 billion (compared to a -$209.4 billion forecast but well down from the February -$296.0 billion level). However, to be fair the federal deficit was down 38% from $378 billion in March 2023 on both reduced spending and increased tax receipts.
In FOMC speak, the March FOMC Meeting minutes showed that Fed members were already disappointed prior to the recent (since the meeting) strong economic/inflation data. However, the “typical policymaker” still felt three cuts in 2024 was going to be appropriate, despite their disappointment. With that said, the minutes shows that the momentum toward fewer cuts in 2024 was already gathering some speed. That was the “gist” of the rate discussion. In terms of the Fed Balance Sheet, the minutes made it clear the FOMC will soon stop the reduction. Policymakers were mostly thinking that in light of the lessons learned during the 2017-2019 tightening, it would be prudent to start easing the current reductions soon. (The Fed has averaged $76 billion per month in drawdown over the last 12 months.) The minutes said, “Participants generally favor reducing the monthly pace of runoff by roughly half from the recent overall pace.” The discussion showed that, in part, this would be because it would give more flexibility to the Fed in how it reduces “non-treasury bond holdings.” (A primary goal of most Fed members is to get as near to an “all treasuries” balance sheet as possible.
In stock news, on Wednesday, the Wall Street journal reported that RBLX partnered with PUBM to increase video ad sales on its gaming platform. (RBLX has 71 million daily users.) Later, META unveiled it new in-house developed AI accelerator chip to be built on a 5nm process and produced by TSM. (META still has planned to acquire about 350,000 NVDA AI accelerator chips this year.) At the same time, UBER announced new security measures aimed at boosting (mostly female) passenger safety in the face of many lawsuits alleging UBER was deficient in preventing attacks (including by drivers) on passengers. Later, Bloomberg reported that AMZN will stop paying developers to create applications for its Alexa devices/services in June. At the same time, UMGNF (Universal Music Group) announced a partnership with Chinese Entertainment Company TF Entertainment which will add Chinese “C-Pop” performers to the service’s global offerings. Later, DAL said it expects record Q2 revenue on the expectation of a summer travel boom.
Elsewhere, STLA told (threatened?) Italian government officials Wednesday, that if Chinese automakers were allowed to open plants in Italy, the company would have to make unpopular decisions such as closing Italian plants. The CEO of STLA said, “If we are under pressure, the only one thing we could do is to accelerate our efforts to increase productivity to be competitive.” (He implied that labor is much cheaper in other parts of the world.) He continued, “Then we might not need so many plants as we have now.” Later, VRTX announced it will buy ALPN for $4.9 billion in cash in order to gain access to the company’s kidney autoimmune disease treatment.
In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that Vietnam had ordered NFLX to stop advertising and distributing its games in the country before April 25. (Vietnam has not granted NFLX a license for gaming services.) Later, a trade group representing AAL, DAL, UAL, and LUV wrote a letter to the FAA asking for even more of an extension (to October 2025) of the waver they’ve gotten to “minimum flight requirements” at NY airports. The airlines say they are still facing pilot shortages and the air traffic control system is also still facing staff shortages. (Under the rules, airlines lose their gate assignments and runway slots if they do not average at least 80% usage of the assigned resources. The airlines have already been granted waivers and then had them extended through October 2024. Now the airlines want another year to get back to normal flight capacities. At the same time, the Dept. of Justice (and 15 states) antitrust lawsuit against AAPL over its US smartphone app store monopoly was reassigned to a new judge in NJ after the original judge recused himself over a conflict of interest.
Meanwhile, the NTSB said the Sunday LUV in-flight loss of an engine cowling on a BA 737-800 was due to a maintenance quality problem the night before the incident. LUV is solely to blame for the aborted flight. At the same time, the SEC notified private software developer Uniswap of potential action. (Uniswap was the main developer of the COIN crypto-exchange, although what action the SEC could take against them is uncertain.) Then, after the close, Politico reported that the Dept. of Justice has formally opened an antitrust probe into the Nippon Steel $14.1 billion acquisition of X. At the same time, AAPL employees at a company store in NJ filed with the NLRB to get a unionization vote. Later, the Dept. of Justice files suit in federal court accusing REGN of fraudulent price reporting related to macular regeneration drug Eylea. The allegations are that REGN inflated the “average sales price” reported to Medicare for reimbursement.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned red in modest trading. Thailand (-0.84%) was by far the biggest mover and led eight of the 12 exchanges lower. On the upside, India (+0.49%) led the four gaining exchanges. In Europe, the bourses are nearly red across the board at midday, with only two of 15 exchanges green. The DAX (-0.60%), CAC (-0.19%), and FTSE (-0.23%) lead the region lower in early afternoon trade. As of 7:30 a.m., in the US, Futures are pointing to a down open ahead of PPI data. The DIA implies a -0.28% open, the SPY is implying a -0.29% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.22% open at this hour. At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up slightly again to 4.554% and Oil (WTI) is off a half of a percent to $85.76 per barrel in early trading.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, March Core PPI, and March PPI (all at 8:30 a.m.), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.). We also hear from Fed members Williams (8:45 a.m.) and Bostic (1:30 p.m.). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open are limited to KMX, STZ, and FAST. Then, after the close, there are no major reports scheduled.
In economic news later this week, on Friday March Import Price Index, March Export Price Index, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported. Fed member Bostic also speaks.
In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, JPM, PGR, STT, and WFC.
So far this morning, STZ reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. However, KMX and FAST both reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.
In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, two of the “Big 4” global accounting firms, KPMG and Deloitte, were hit with $25 million in civil penalties and had senior managers barred, in response to “egregious and widespread cheating on auditor certification tests. (This was just the latest in a long string of auditor companies and their employees helped colleagues obtain internal certifications to be public auditors by sharing test answers.) Meanwhile, the US Senate voted 53-47 to overturn Federal Highway Administration rules that had set declining targets on greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles on federal highways to near zero by 2050. (The House has yet to vote on the measure, but if the Democratic Senate voted in favor of the industry position, the House should be an easy pass.) On the House side of capitol hill, the Freedom Caucus (MAGA) vocal minority killed a GOP bill to reauthorize for five years the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act reauthorization measure. (FISA authorizes warrantless surveillance of foreign intelligence suspects and this bill also imposes some reforms.) The killing of a procedural vote on the bill came after the MAGA leader called on his minions to kill the bill as he wanted to lean into “deep state” conspiracy theories on the campaign trail. For his part, after a fourth defeat of his short tenure, House Speaker Johnson vowed to forge ahead even after 19 GOP members jumped shipped and voted with Democrats. (This was ironic since at is one of the group’s biggest complaints about Johnson is that he is too willing to work with Dems.)
In market expectations news, after the March CPI data was reported and had a day to be digested, the Fedwatch tool shows us that as of this morning, only 96.0% of Fed Fund Futures bets are on “no change in rates” at the next (May 1) FOMC meeting. This is actually down 4% from the pre-CPI probabilities. The other 4% are expecting a quarter-point rate cute on May 1. For the June 12 meeting, probabilities are showing 83.1% of contracts expecting no cut (up from the 40.8% predicting no cut prior to the CPI data). 16.4% still expect a quarter-point cut in June while 0.5% expect a half percent cut at that meeting. The July 31 meeting now shows 55.6% expecting no rate change by then. (This is up from just 24.4% of traders anticipating no change in rates at the July meeting prior to CPI data.) 38.4% expect a quarter point cut in July, 5.8% expect a half-point cut by then, and 0.2% expect a three-quarters of a percent cut by July31. Even further out, 67.3% of fed fund futures bets predict at least a quarter point rate cut by September 18 with 32.7% hanging onto the belief rates will remain where they are now. Interestingly, even out in December 13.2% of bets have been placed on no rate cut during 2024. However, there has not been a single Fed futures bet of any additional rate hikes this year either.
With that background, it looks as if the Bears are in control again this morning. All three major index ETFs have gapped lower and then printed modest (but certainly not small) black body candles to begin the premarket. All three are also below their T-line (8ema). So the short-term trend is bearish. Meanwhile, the mid-term remains sideways in a choppy consolidating range in the SPY and QQQ, but the DIA has also turned Bearish in the mid-term. Long-term, it has been and remains all Bulls all the time. In terms of extension, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line. However, the T2122 indicator is now in the middle of its oversold range. So, both sides still have some room to run but clearly the Bulls have more slack to play with. In terms of those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the red with only MSFT (+0.31%) and AAPL (+0.13%) hanging onto the green area ahead of PPI data. Speaking of which, remember that while PPI hits today (and may reinforce the bad feeling from CPI yesterday), it is not likely to have as much impact. In either case, earnings season starts again in earnest tomorrow morning. So, we may still see more waiting and drifting after any open fireworks.
As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!
See you in the trading room.
Ed
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
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