Yesterday’s surge was a nice start to May, but the ability to follow through and break this choppy consolidation range continues to elude the bulls. With treasuries creeping higher this morning, the tech sector has topped earnings estimates by as much as 20% is struggling to hold price support and a possible double top failure in play. Be careful not to chase or overtrade a dull market because it can quickly chop up an account, leaving you bruised and battered before a direction manifests.
Overnight Asian markets closed mixed but mostly lower as the RBA holds steady on policy. European indexes trade mixed in a session muted with recovery worries. Facing a big day of earnings data as well as trade and factory numbers, U.S. futures currently point to a flat open with tech under slight pressure due to rising bonds. Could it be just another day of choppy consolidation as the market searches for some inspiration?
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Earnings ramp up this Tuesday with more than 200 companies listed on the calendar set to report quarterly results. Notable reports include UAA, ATVI, ALGT, ANDE, AKAM, ARNC, ANET, BHC, LNG, COP, CMI, CVS, DENN, DVN, D, DD, ETN, RACE, BEN, IT, HSIC, HST, H, IDXX, INCY, INFN, KKR, LPX, LYFT, MPC, MLM, MTCH, MCFE, MTOR, NXST, PFE, PXD, SEE, SU, SYY, TMUX, SPCE, VMC, WMG, WU, XLNX, & ZG.
News & Technicals’
It was a nice start to May with the indexes surging at the open, but sadly they lacked much energy to do much else, chopping sideways to down the remainder of the day. There are some starting to suggest that the market is topping due to the lack of momentum. However, the big instutions continue to sing in unison that this summer will see the indexes higher. Treasury yields advance this morning, with the 10-year at 1.61% and the 30-year moving up to 2.29%. Yesterday gold and silver surged after Warren Buffet said they see a significant rise in inflation as of late. As the CDC tells Americans, they can now freely resume travel around the country; India’s pandemic case total crossed 20 million with more than 345K infections reported yesterday. President Biden has set a deadline to reach an agreement on the infrastructure bill of May 31st as he travels around the country trying to sell the public on the multi-trillion deficit spending plan.
The bulls took a solid run at setting a new Dow record high yesterday but fell short as the tech sector found sellers damping the early enthusiasm. Interestingly the VIX crept slightly higher, and the Absolute Breadth Index moved lower despite the bullish effort. With earnings estimates topped by more than 20%, it makes me wonder what it’s going to take to break this choppy consolidation range. Trends remain bullish, with bonds moving slightly higher this morning, adding a little pressure to the tech sector struggling to hold onto its index price supports. As the morning earnings roll out, futures suggest a flat open with trade numbers and factory order numbers on the horizon. It looks as if the lackluster price action could continue this morning. Plan your risk carefully and avoid overtrading.
Markets gapped up about half a percent Monday to start the new month. However, that was it for the large-caps as they ground sideways in a tight range after the open. The QQQ faded the gap and then some before starting its own tight-range sideways grind about 11am. This left us with indecisive candles in the SPY and DIA and a small Bearish Engulfing candle in the QQQ. However, all 3 major indices remained inside the tight range of the last week. On the day, SPY gained 0.21%, DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ lost 0.53%. The VXX fell 3.5% to 38.75 and T2122 climbed back to the edge of overbought territory at 80.65. After having climbed in premarket, 10-year bond yields fell during the day to 1.601% and Oil (WWTI) rose over 1% to $64.44/barrel.
After hours, US announced it will pay a $9 million fine to settle an accounting fraud charge. In other legal news, a trial began in WV with local authorities suing the 3 major drug distributors (MCK, ABC, and CAH) for failing to better monitor distribution of opioids as required by federal law. (The companies shipped 36 million doses to a community of 100,000 over an 8-year period.) Also, the AAPL vs Epic Games trial got underway with opening arguments from both sides on Monday. The trial will greatly impact whether AAPL can continue to prohibit alternatives to the AAPL App Store for devices in the APPL device userbase. Epic is arguing the 30% commission and arbitrary app approval process are wrong. AAPL is arguing it needs control because it does not want to devolve into being like the Android marketplace.
PFE reported beats on both the top and bottom lines this morning. The company said it will file for full (non-emergency) approval of its Covid vaccine by the end of the month. If approved, this would allow the company to market the vaccine directly to consumers. UA also posted beats on both lines and raised guidance for the full year. CVS joined the crowd, also beating on revenue and earnings as testing, vaccinations and prescriptions all outpaced forecast.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,230,992 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 591,514. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 50,665 new cases per day. However, deaths have plateaued again, now at 716 per day. In some good news, for perspective, US new cases and deaths are both less than 20% of their peak values in early January of this year. In addition, 40% of adults and 70% of all seniors are now fully-vaccinated. However, the CDC reports that demand for vaccine has also plummeted 27% and each day tens of thousands of available vaccination appointments are going unused daily in the US.
Globally, the numbers rose to 154,241,017 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,228,632 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 812,341 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,336 new deaths per day. India continues to be the current epicenter of the pandemic with yet another Indian state entering lockdown. This comes as a new tragedy happened Monday, when another hospital ran out of oxygen, causing at least 20 deaths. However, international aid is now starting to arrive (though national logistics is very challenging in the country) and that includes a ramping up of India’s vaccination program which was expanded to everyone over age 18 yesterday.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. New Zealand (+1.12%) was an outlier to the upside, with South Korea (+0.64%) and Hong Kong (+0.70%) being more typical of gainers. Taiwan (-1.68%), India (-0.94%), and Japan (-0.83%) paced the losers on the day. In Europe, markets are also mixed so far today. The FTSE (+0.83%) and CAC (+0.75%) are leading the gainers, but the DAX (-0.10%) and a number of the smaller exchanges remain on the red side of flat. Denmark (-0.88%) is an outlier to the downside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat and mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, while the SPY is implying a -0.11% open and the QQQ is implying a -0.35% open at this point.
The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mar. Imports/Exports and Mar. Trade Balance (both at 8:30 am), Mar., Factory Orders (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Daly at 1 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AME, APO, ARCB, ARNC, BHC, BERY, BR, BEP, BG, CWH, CTLT, CRL, CQP, LNG, COP, CMI, CVS, D, DD, ETN, EXPD, RACE, BEN, IT, GPN, HSC, HSIC, IDXX, INCY, INGR, KKR, LCII, LDOS, LGIH, LPX, MPC, MLM, NXST, PFE, SEE, SYY, TRI, UA, UAA, VIRT, VSH, VMC, WMG, WLK, XYL, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open. Then, after the close, ATVI, AKAM, ALC, AMCR, AFG, ANDE, ANET, AIZ, BKH, CZR, CTVA, DK, DVN, ENLC, PEAK, HLF, HI, JAZZ, KAR, LYFT, MANT, DOOR, MTCH, MCFE, MCY, PKI, PXD, PAA, PRU, RYAM, SMCI, TMUS, TTEC, VRSK, WU, XLNX, and ZG report.
Markets continue to feel as if the bulls have run out of energy to push higher. However, the bears have no traction either. This leaves us in a tight-range sideways grind. This is a very difficult market to trade as the day-to-day chop crushes traders, even as the indices go nowhere. Even with blowout earnings and generally raised outlooks, the bulls have not been able to run lately. So, be careful on the long side. Still, the trend has not changed direction. We do not have a bearish trend. So, also don’t be too quick to take shorts either. Stuck between the trend and the chop is a tough place to make money.
Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. Respect potential support and resistance levels. Stick with the trend (when you have one), but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SHIP, BIG, MDLZ, JNJ, FAST, DHI, NOK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Though we had a week of blowout earnings, the price action that followed made for a very frustrating week as it chopped sideways with little to no momentum. With the futures once again pushing hard in the pre-market, the question is will this time be different, or will it turn out to be just another pop and drop that we experienced several times over the last couple of weeks? Overall index trends are still bullish but stay focused and flexible with a busy week of earnings ahead.
Asian markets closed in the red across the board overnight with Twain tensions rising and India reeling from pandemic infection rates. However, European indexes trade higher this morning, with the U.K. closed to celebrate their May Day holiday. Here in the U.S., the pre-market pump has begun ahead of a busy day of earnings as well as manufacturing data. Will there be some follow-through or another frustrating whipsaw? Plan your risk carefully.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Kicking off the first week of May, we have more than 100 companies reporting quarterly results. Notable reports include AMG, ALK, WEK, APO, CAR, CBT, CHGG, CC, FANG, EL, FN, GPP, IRBT, L, MOS, RMBS, ON, PETS, RBC, RIG, & XPO.
News & Technicals’
Warren Buffett announced his successor, CEO Greg ABEL when he would be no longer man the helm of Berkshire Hathaway. Treasury yields dipped slightly this morning ahead of the manufacturing data, with the 10-year coming in at 1.625% and the 30-year traded flat at 2.298%. The Phillippine secretary of foreign affairs accused Beijing of strainings its friendship with the Philippines. In a Twitter post, Locsin asked China to “get the f— out!” Keep a close eye on this as the war of words escalates with Taiwan clearly in China’s crosshairs. The president will out touring the country trying to sell the infrastructure bill to the public as Congress continues to wangle over the size and scope. As India’s pandemic numbers spike, the U.S. discusses a more comprehensive licensing of vaccines that may waive patent protections. Over the weekend, India reported more than 400,000 daily cases bringing the countries total to nearly 20 million. On Friday, the White House announced that it would restrict travel from India.
There’s no doubt that last week was a confusing and frustrating week of price action as companies report blowout results while the market showed little to no interest. Technically speaking, the bullish trend remains intact though the price action has lingered in a wide-ranging consolidation. For some reason, the pre-market futures appear inspired to get moving this morning, but once again, I feel it’s necessary to suggest caution in case of another pop and drop. Don’t case, instead let’s wait to make sure there is some actual buying after the open with enough momentum to last more than a few minutes. With a big week of earnings and news, stay focused and flexible.
Markets gapped down on Friday. The large-caps then ground sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the QQQ faded the gap and then slowly sold off back to the gap price again. This left us with gap-down Doji in the large-caps and a gap-down Inverted Hammer type candle in the QQQ to end the month. On the day, SPY and QQQ both lost 0.66% and the DIA lost 0.48%. The VXX gained 4% to 40.16 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory back into mid-range at 49.03. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.626% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.34% to $63.49/barrel.
A few tidbits came out of the Berkshire Woodstock annual meeting. Warren Buffett announced a 20% increase in BRK operating profit while announcing the company share buybacks have and will continue. He also said that stock prices are too high and decried Robinhood as being an enabler of the public’s gambling habits. He says that has led to far too many “short-term bets” and has hurt BRK (such as the way short-term option activity in AAPL hurt the BRK position). He also said when he retires, Greg Abel will succeed him as CEO. Meanwhile, Charlie Munger (Buffett’s number two) decried Bitcoin as “disgusting” and a bane to society.
In misc. news, overnight and in pre-market activity, bond prices rose again. The 10-year yield is up to 1.642%. VZ is considering selling the dog entity it created by merging AOL and Yahoo Finance. Finally, over the weekend GOP Senators said an infrastructure deal is possible and the President seemed to embrace that sentiment although the sides are well over $1 trillion apart.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,180,441 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 591,062. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 50,251 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 719 per day. This has led to the lowest weekly aggregate number of deaths so far this year. In great news, new cases have dropped dramatically (17% week-on-week). However, the CDC has reported that vaccinations rates have also plummeted since the JNJ vaccine pause last month and are raising real concern over whether the US will reach herd immunity later than projected or even at all.
Globally, the numbers rose to 153,565,250 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,218,006 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 809,729 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,366 new deaths per day. India has been reporting more than 400,000 new cases per day (one-third of the global new cases) as of the weekend. Foreign aid (especially oxygen and related equipment) has started arriving, but deaths remain at the highs and one state of the country (the one encompassing New Delhi) has announced a 1-week total lockdown.
Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side with just 3 exchanges staying just on the green side of flat. Taiwan (-1.96%), Hong Kong (-1.28%), and Singapore (-1.04%) led the losses. In Europe, just the opposite is true so far today as markets are mostly green. Russia (-0.76%) is the exception to the rule. The FTSE (+0.12%), DAX (+0.61%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.62% gap, the SPY implying a +0.52% gap, and the QQQ implying a +0.29% open.
There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include AMG, CAN, ENBL, EPD, EL, GPRE, ITRI, LDI, ON, and WEC before the open. Then after the close, AWK, AGR, CAR, BWXT, CC, CR, CVI, FANG, FLS, NSP, LEG, MOS, NTR, OGS, QGEN, RBC, REGI, SANM, SCI, RIG, TA, WMB, WWD, and XPO report.
Markets seem poised to start May on a higher open. However, the short-term trend is clearly an indecisive sideways grind for the last couple of weeks. Even with blowout earnings and generally raised outlooks for the coming quarter, the bulls have not been able to run lately. On the other hand, the bears have also been unable to make any headway without bad earnings or a major story to hang their hats on. So, for now, it seems the market is undecided and hard to trade with no trend in place.
Remember that you don’t have to trade every day or every week. That is one of the great benefits of trading as a career. Respect potential support and resistance levels, but don’t just assume they will hold either. Predicting is a sucker’s game. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
As big tech produces historic earning numbers, it has been a puzzling week of lackluster price action. Could the rising bonds and concerns of inflation causing the lack of momentum, or perhaps the significantly elevated P/E ratios causing the problem? Whatever the cause, the price action continues to chop up accounts as it whipsaws in a better than 500-point consolidation range in the Dow. As we enter the last trading day of the month and slid into the weekend, consider your risk carefully.
Asian markets traded lower across the board overnight, with the HSI falling nearly 2%. European indexes trade mainly lower this morning as the Eurozone deals with another pandemic-related recession. After the blowout earnings in AMZN, the U.S. point to a lower open ahead of personal income numbers. Get ready for another day of choppy uncertainty.
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
On the Friday Earnings calendar, reports lighten up, giving us a little break after such a big week of data. Notable reports include ABBV, BCS, CHTR, CVX, CLX, CL, E, XOM, GT, HP, ITW, NWL, PSX, PBI, QSR, GWW, & WY.
News & Technicals’
It’s been a puzzling week with massive earnings beats but a market devoid of the momentum to react to the historic results. Make a person wonder if the saying, sell in May and stay away, will merit this year? According to the European Commission, Apple has abused its dominant position in the distribution of music streaming apps. The stock is indicated lower this morning. Unfortunately, the Eurozone economy has once again slipped into another recession as they deal with the 3rd wave of pandemic lockdowns. Inda reported another new record with over 386,000 new infections in a single day. In April alone, the county has had to deal with 6.6 million new cases, bringing more than 18.76 million cases in total. As the market digests the blowout earnings reports, the 10-year treasury pushed higher to 1.647% with only a slight movement in the 30-year, moving up to 2.31%.
On the index technical front, the SPY managed to set a new record high, but the day’s price action was not exactly confidence building leaving behind a possible hanging man candle pattern on the chart. Overall the trends remain bullish even as the price action continues in a choppy consolidation zone. , With the price action lacking directional momentum and chop zone of more than 500 points in the Dow, it has been a challenging and punishing time for swing traders. Holding longer-term positions in trend stocks have rewarded trader with discipline to hold through the uncomfortable chop. However, the quick, experienced day traders seem to have the upper hand. With the bulk of earnings inspiration behind us, significantly elevated P/E ratios, and the summer doldrums just around the corner, traders should be cautious of overtrading.
Markets gapped higher Thursday on the prior night’s earnings beats from AAPL and FB. Stocks the proceeded to fade the gap and spent the rest of the day working back toward to gap open. This left us with Hanging Man candles in all 3 major indices (white body on DIA and the other two black bodies). However, the SPY was at another all-time high close. On the day, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX was essentially flat at 38.58 and T2122 fell ever so slightly to 91.05. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.636% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.69% to $64.92/barrel. Copper also reached a 10-year high.
After the close AMZN continued the trend for big tech by smashing expectations with a 44% sales increase for the quarter and earnings that beat estimates by 65% ($15.79 vs $9.54 est. per share). The online retail giant also said they forecast no fall-off in the pandemic-driven surge in sales. However, while TWTR did post slight beats on both lines, they rained on the parade somewhat by posting a miss on user numbers and lower than hoped forward guidance as well as not beating as big as the other big tech names.
Early Friday, the executive arm of the EU opened a new antitrust investigation of the AAPL App Store. This one is based on music platform SPOT complaining about the AAPL license agreements. The EU announced that “the mandatory use of Apple’s own in-app purchase mechanism for apps distributed through the store likely violates EU antitrust regulations.” This adds to AAPL’s antitrust problems with Epic Games having filed suit on the same grounds in the US.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,983,695 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 588,337. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 55,773 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 727 per day. This has led to the lowest weekly aggregate number of deaths so far this year.
Globally, the numbers rose to 151,240,576 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,182,092 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 829,052 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,448 new deaths per day. France announced a 4-step process to end its lockdown with the first step starting on May 19 with a goal of the final lifting happening June 30. Japan reported its highest number of new cases since January as the country tries to prepare for the delayed Olympic games. Following in the steps of PFE, MRNA president said patients using their vaccine will also likely need a booster 9-12mo after completing the second dose. However, in more hopeful news, in India, the first shipments of foreign oxygen-related aid have arrived.
Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-1.97%) and India (-1.77%) paced the losses. The same story seems to be taking shape in Europe so far today. Moves are generally modest, with the smallest moves coming from two of the big 3 exchanges with the FTSE (-0.17%) and DAX (+0.04%), which is the only green on the continent. The CAC (-0.35%) is closer to typical of all the other exchanges. As of 7:30am, US Futures are also pointing to a gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.49% open, the SPY implying a -0.59% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.75% gap-down open.
The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Mar. PCE Price Index, Q1 Employment Cost Index, and Mar. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ABBV, ALXN, AON, AZN, AVNT, CRI, CHTR, CVX, CLX, CL, XOM, FNMA, GT, HRC, HUN, ITW, IMO, JELD, JCI, LHX, LAZ, LYB, NWL, PSX, PBI, POR, QSR, GWW, and before the open. Then after the close, WES reports.
Despite continued blowout earnings reports from the massive FAANG names, markets seem poised to follow the rest of the world lower on Friday. Maybe this is related to the month-end or weekend news cycle that both are nearly at hand. Regardless, this just reinforces the bulls have had breaking through the recent highs and running free. Yet, the bears still have no shock or major story to hand their hats on. With blowout earnings and increasing forecasts, future inflation seems to be their storyline…and history shows markets rising in infationary times. So, for now, the bears best case would seem to be for a pullback.
Respect those potential support and resistance levels, but don’t just assume they will hold either. Predicting is a sucker’s game. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PM, XLE, AAPL, JPM, MDLZ, JNPR, AA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
Big tech delivers blowout reports as AAPL and FB surge in after-hours trading. Today we will hear from AMZN and TWTR as we roll into the biggest day of earnings so far this quarter. The FED will keep rates low and plans to buy $120 billion in bonds a month, keeping pedal to the metal for the foreseeable future with little to no concern about inflation. The President rolled out plans for nearly $4 Trillion government spending last night, so let’s party like it’s 1999 as long as it lasts.
Asian markets saw bullish gains overnight led by the HIS rising 0.80%, reacting to the FED policy. European markets are mixed but mostly higher as Nokia surges 16%. Ahead of a massive day of earnings and an economic calendar that includes GDP & Jobless Claims, futures point to a substantial gap open. Buckle up it could be a wild day of price action!
Economic Calendar
Earnings Calendar
Today will be the biggest day of earnings so far this quarter. Notable reports include MCD, AOS, AEM, MO, AMZN, AMT, BAX, BLUM, COG, CARR, CAT, CHD, CRUS, CTXS, CMCSA, CUBE, DVA, DLR, DPZ, ERJ, FSLR, GLPI, GILD, HSY, IP, KDP, KIM, KHC, TREE, LOGI, MMP, MA, TAP, NEM, NIO, NOK, NOC, PFPT, RCL, SWKS, SO, TROW, TXRH, TW, TWTR, X & XEN.
New & Technicals’
Blowout reports from big tech companies AAPL & FB appear to have finally broken the earnings doldrums of the last couple of weeks, with the bulls pushing hard in the future. However, looking forward, AAPL is warning the chip shortages may slow growth looking forward. The President rolled out a massive plan with $2 Trillion on infrastructure and another $1.8 Trillion for families, children, and students! Under his proposal, workers would get 12 weeks of family and medical leave up to $4000 a month. The 10-year treasuries are back up again this morning, climbing to 1.65%, and the 30-year rose to 2.318%. Gerome Powel and the FOMC kept the pedal to the metal, keeping rates near zero with plans to buy $120 Billion in bonds each month.
With futures on the rise this morning, the SPY and QQQ may open at new record highs. Let’s watch carefully to make sure there is some follow-through buying after the open. We don’t want to rush into a pop and drop! The Fed, massive government spending, and big tech earings certainly favor the bulls, and the overall bullish trends with blue skies above show no signs of stopping just yet. Stay with the trend as long as it lasts but let’s not become complacent as P/E ratios continue to stretch to remarkable levels. AMZN and TWTR report after the bell today, so prepare for more price volatility and possible gapping open on Friday.
Markets basically treaded water all day in a tight range. There was a little volatility around the time of the Fed announcement but that quickly faded back to where it was beforehand. It seems like traders were more concerned about the post-market AAPL and FB reports than the foregone conclusion that the Fed would not change rates or their stance. The SPY closed as a Doji again very near all-time highs with the DIA and QQQ putting in small black candles. On the say, SPY gained 0.01%, DIA lost 0.39%, and QQQ lost 0.34%. The VXX was also flat at 38.88 and T2122 remains well into the overbought territory at 92.07. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.611% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.3% to $63.76/barrel.
After the close, FB beat on both the top and bottom line with a 48% rise in revenue but slightly fewer active users than expected. AAPL also announced another blowout quarter with a 54% increase in sales, a 42% profit margin, and in addition authorized a $90 billion share buyback plan. QCOM and F also both announced beats, with QCOM raising guidance on strong smartphone demand. However, F said the global chip shortage and a fire at a Japanese chip supplier will reduce the carmaker’s Q2 production by 50% and also expects that shortage to reduce earnings for the year by about $2.5 billion.
During the afternoon, the Fed raised their outlook for the economy and said inflation will pick up, but they remain unconcerned. However, they did not change rates, reiterated they have no plans to do so and said they will also not stop bond purchases at this time. In the evening, the President spoke before Congress, calling for passage of the Infrastructure plan and unveiling a new $1.8 trillion plan aimed at families, children and students. While neither is likely to pass as proposed, there is no way to look at trillions of dollars of spending that doesn’t consider it fiscal stimulus.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,983,695 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 588,337. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 55,773 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 727 per day. In an ominous sign, many parts of the country are now in an urgent rush to find patients for the vaccine they have to deliver. This has been true across the South for some time, but Philadelphia had to plead for patients Wednesday to avoid throwing away unused PFE vaccine and in Detroit the city has resorted to going door-to-door trying to get vaccine used before it expires. That “two alternate universes” point of reference seems as strong as ever (regardless of which one you reside in).
Globally, the numbers rose to 150,341,231 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,166,947 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 827,154 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,200 new deaths per day. Turkey is starting a national lockdown today amidst a spike in infection rates. In the Philippines, Manilla extended their lockdown through mid-May. However, India remains the center of the pandemic storm with an eighth straight day of over 300,000 reported new cases…reported being the key word. Testing positivity rates are suggesting India may have over 500 million cases at the moment with the majority of hospitals in the country turning away patients for a lack of oxygen, beds, and medical staff.
Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with South Korea (-0.23%) being the only red on the board. Hong Kong (+0.80%) and Thailand (+0.87%) led the gains on modest moves. In Europe, a similar situation is taking shape. Only the DAX (-0.50%) is in the red with the FTSE (+0.68%) and CAC (+0.43%) being more typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +0.37% open, the SPY implying a +0.68% open, and the QQQ implying a +1.04% gap higher at this point.
The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Q1 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), Mar. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and 2 Fed speakers (Quarles at 11 am and Williams at 2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AOS, AGCO, ATI, ADS, AB, MO, AMT, AIT, BAX, BCE, BGCP, BLMN, BMY, BC, CG, CARR, CAT, CBRE, CHD, CTXS, CMS, CFX, CMCSA, COWN, DISH, DPZ, ERJ, EME, EEFT, FMX, FMCC, FCN, GNRC, GPI, HSY, ICE, IP, JHG, KBR, KDP, KHC, LH, LKQ, MDC, MMP, MKL, MA, MCD, MRK, MDP, TIGO, TAP, COOP, NEM, NOK, NOC, NVT, PH, PATK, PBF, PCG, PPC, PRG, RLGY, SPGI, SPGI, SNDR, SAH, SO, STM, SYNH, TROW, TMHC, TFX, TPX, TXT, TMO, VC, WAB, WST, WLTW, and XEL before the open. Then after the close, ACHC, AMZN, ATR, AJC, TEAM, BZH, BIO, BKCC, COLM, DVA, DLR, EMN, ENSG, ERIE, FSLR, FTNT, FTV, FBHS, GILD, GFF, THG, KMPR, KLAC, LPLA, MHK, NIO, RMD, SKYW, SWKS, SWN, TEX, TXRH, TWTR, X, VRTX, WDC, and INT report.
The flood of blowout results, and more suggested spending are giving the bulls a tailwind so far today. However, the GDP number may raise the fear of inflation later this morning. So, beware of volatility, but stay on the right side of the trend. There has been a ton of good news for bulls lately, even if markets remain extremely high (frothy to use Chair Powell’s word). There certainly has not been a shock or strong case for the bears lately for anything but a pullback at best.
As I’ve said before, predicting reversals is a game that few traders play successfully…and none of them do it successfully for long. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect those potential support and resistance levels, but that doesn’t mean assuming they will hold. Just lock in your profits or be prepared to watch closely at those levels. As always, keep taking your goals off the table when you achieve them and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SENS, TLRY, RIDE, NKLA, QS, CRSP, SLV, NUE, VIAC, XLE, AI. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
The after the bell reports resulted in a mixed bag of price action results. GOOGL soared, but MSFT seemed to miss a step indicating a lower open this morning. After the morning rush in reaction before the bell reports, there is a good chance the market slips into a light and choppy pattern as we wait for the FOMC decision. If that not enough, FB and AAPL report after the bell setting the stage for a Thursday morning gap. Your guess on direction is as good as mine! Then later tonight, the President will unveil another massive spending plan in a joint session of Congress. Indeed a busy week of data!
Overnight Asian markets saw modest gains by the close in a choppy session at investors grappled with economic data. European markets trade with modest gains this morning with the Fed meeting in focus. The U.S. displays a mixed bag this morning as the investors try to digest an overflowing plate of data headed in our direction. Anything is possible, so plan your risk carefully.
We had a mixed bag of results after the bell earnings reports, with GOOG soaring and MSFT, AMGN, and TXN looking to gap lower this morning. Today the report ramp-up, including the giants FB and AAPL stepping up after the bell. Suppose that’s not enough to we also have the FOMC Announcement at 2 PM Eastern with the press conference to follow. Tonight the President will address a joint session of Congress to unveil another massive spending plan of nearly $2 Trillion. India once again reports record new cases and fatalities, and according to some reports, the numbers could be underreported by nearly half as overfull hospitals turn people away. Ahead of the Fed decision, the 10-Year Treasury rallied above 1.65% this morning, and the 30-year climbed to 2.321% as inflation concerns grow.
On the Techincal front, the bulls remain in control of the trends, though they have experienced a choppy consolidation over the last couple of weeks. The T2122 indicator continues to display a short-term overbought condition, but as the market reacts to a tidal wave of data, anything is possible. While the market tries to climb a wall of worry, the VIX is also consolidating above recent lows. That said, the best we can do as retail traders is stay with the trend, avoid overtrading and complacency, ready to react if the market suddenly reveres. Expect the market to become light and choppy after the morning rush as we wait on the FOMC. Then anything is possible. Remember, with FB and AAPL, reporting after the bell tomorrow’s open could easily begin with a gap. The question to be answered is up or down?
Markets put in another flat small-range day on Tuesday with both large-dap indices printing Doji-like candles. However, that also means stocks remain very near the all-time highs as traders wait on direction from the flood of earnings and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. On the day, SPY lost 0.02%, DIA lost 0.01%, and QQQ lost 0.43%. The VXX also fell 2% to #9.01 and while it backed off a bit, T2122 remains well into the overbought territory at 88.46. 10-year bond yields jumped once again to 1.629% and Oil (WTI) also rose 2% to $63.22/barrel.
After the close, both MSFT and GOOG reported blowout quarters, beating estimates on both lines. MSFT reported the highest revenue growth since 2018 while GOOG reported revenue growth of 34% and also announced a new $50 billion stock buy-back plan. SBUX also reported same-store sales growth back at pre-pandemic levels as it raised its 2021 forecast and reported an earnings beat. The news was not all good for GOOG as two Senators (bi-partisan) on the anti-trust committee demanded information about a call GOOG had held with MTCH executives prior to the MTCH executives testifying (the letter reports GOOG may have attempted to influence another witness’ testimony).
In other stock news, AAPL has now implemented their default blocking of third-party tracking cookies on their devices. Given a reported extremely low adoption rate of “cohort tracking” alternatives, this means only AAPL and GOOG are now the only ones able to offer advertisers the deep tracking consumer data they covet. FB had obviously opposed the AAPL move since it has a huge customer-base it wanted data on to sell to advertisers. However, FB did announce an alternative way of targeting consumers on Tuesday when it introduced new Instagram features designed to match content makers serving specific audiences with specific advertisers. It’s unclear if this will suffice for advertisers or if FB ad revenue will suffer greatly.
Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,927,091 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 587,384. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 57,024 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 722 per day. The CDC announced new masking guidelines on Tuesday, saying the fully vaccinated people can now hold small outdoor gatherings without masks. President Biden noted that 80% of seniors have had at least one shot, but more importantly, over two-thirds of them are fully vaccinated.
Globally, the numbers rose to 149,436,366 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,151,717 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 826,297 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,028 new deaths per day. India has reported current testing is showing a 50% positivity rate. If this held for the whole population, this could mean as many as 600 million infected people. Regardless of the number, what is known is that the Indian hospital system has collapsed under the flood, turning away hundreds of patients a day in one city alone, with particular shortages of oxygen and breathing apparatuses. In the same region, Pakistan also recorded its highest number of daily deaths and Sri Lanka went into national lockdown amidst another record number of cases.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, leaning toward the green on mostly modest moves. South Korea (-1.09%) was the outlier with Shanghai (+0.42%), Hong Kong (+0.45%), and Australia (+0.44%) more typical. In Europe, markets were also leaning to the green side as the FTSE (+0.57%), DAX (+0.41%), and CAC (+0.64%) lead the way at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a -0.11% open, the SPY implying a +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.09% open at this hour, with a flood of earnings reports being mulled or still to come.
The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes Mar. Trade Balance and Mar. Retail Inventories (both at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2 pm), Fed Chair Press Conf. (2:30 pm), and President Biden will address a joint session of Congress (9 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AER, APH, ADP, AVY, BA, BSX, BCO, EAT, GIG, CME, CSTM, DAN, DISCA, ETR, EVR, GRMN, GD, HES, HUM, IEX, IPG, MAS, MLCO, MCO, NSC, OSK, OC, PAG, BPOP, PPD, ROK, ROL, R, SNY, SC, SHOP, SLGN, SIRI, SPOT, SWK, TECK, TDY, TEVA, TKR, TNL, VRT, and YUM all report before the open. Then after the close, AFL, ALGN, ALSN, ATUS, AMED, NLY, AR, AAPL, ASGN, ASH, AVB, AVTR, AVT, AXS, BHE, CCS, CHX, CAKE, SMPR, CINF, CNO, FIX, CYH, CLR, EBAY, ECHO, ESI, EQIX, FB, F, GRUB, HOLX, IR, LOGI, MHO, MTH, MEOH, MGM, MOH, MUSA, MYRG, ORLY, OI, OPK, OVV, PSA, QCOM, RJF, RNR, SIGI, NOW, TTEK, TROX, TTMI, URI, VVV, WCN, WELL, and WERN report.
Another boatload of earnings and the Fed announcement are likely to inform market moves on Wednesday. So, we may well have another “wait and see” day of trading until at least mid-afternoon. Beware of volatility as we’ve seen chop recently. While the bulls still have the trend in their favor, they are struggling to break resistance the last few days.
Predicting reversals is a game damn few traders play successfully and none of them do it consistently for a long time. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Respect support and resistance, but that does not mean assuming it will hold. Just lock in profits or be prepared to watch at those levels. As always, keep taking your goals off the table when you achieve them and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.
Ed
Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas Today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.
🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.
🎯 DickCarp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you
🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.
🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it
🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.
🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.
Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos
|607% in just 24 months |
Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.
DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service
