Wednesday saw a mostly flat open after CPI data. SPY opened up 0.16%, DIA opened down just 0.03%, and QQQ “gapped” up 0.19%.  From there, the whipsaw was on for the SPY and QQQ, both of which saw a selloff the first hour followed by a strong rally until noon and another selloff the hour after that.  Meanwhile, DIA’s morning selloff was much smaller and its mid-morning rally was stronger and lasted longer.  Then in the afternoon, things settled down as the wave got smaller in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us indecisive candles in the SPY and QQQ, but a more bullish candle in the DIA.  All three remained well above their T-line (8ema).  SPY printed a white-bodied Spinning Top, QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top, and Dia printed a white-bodied candle with no lower wick and a modest upper wick.  This all happened on above average volume in the DIA as well as below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, six of the 10 sectors were green with Financial Services (+0.98%) well out in front leading the gainers higher. Meanwhile, Basic Materials (-0.39%) and Consumer Cyclicals (-0.33%) leading the losers lower.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.32%, DIA gained 0.57%, and QQQ gained 0.03%.  VXX dropped another 6.51% to close at 47.14 and T2122 dropped back a bit more toward the center of its mid-range at 65.04. On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell a bit to 3.839% and Oil (WTI) fell another 1.61% to close at $77.09 per barrel. So, Wednesday was a bullish, but fairly volatile day with the mega-cap DIA leading the rest of the market higher.  This came after what analysts called “encouraging” CPI data that was the lowest since March of 2021.  (It might be of interest to note that prior to the CPI release, 47.5% of Fed Fund Futures expected a quarter point rate cut in September.  At the end of the day, 64.5% are now expecting a quarter-point rate cut.  In both cases, the entire remainder expects a half percent cut.)

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday were limited to July Core CPI (Year-on-Year) that was down a tick, as expected, at 3.2% (compared to a forecast of 3.2% and down slightly from June’s 3.3%).  On the monthly basis, July Core CPI was actually up a tick as expected at +0.2% (versus a +0.2% forecast and June’s +0.1% reading).  On the headline number, July CPI (Year-on-Year) was down more than was predicted at +2.9% (compared to a +3.0% forecast and prior month value).  On the monthly basis, July CPI was up as predicted at +0.2% (versus a +0.2% forecast and the June -0.1% reading).  Later, the EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed an unanticipated build of 1.357 million barrels (compared to a forecasted drawdown of 1.900 million barrels and the prior week’s 3.728-million-barrel drawdown). 

After the close, CSCO reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (CSCO also raised its forecasts and guidance, yet still announced cutting as many as 6,000 jobs.)  Meanwhile, STNE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Wednesday, MU and Korea’s Samsung followed the third major computer memory manufacturer in raising prices by 15%-20%.  At the same time private company Mars (of candy bar fame) announced they have agreed to buy K for $36 billion.  Later, the CFO of UBS said the company would sell the CS mortgage servicing unit it acquired in the CS buyout.  (No buyer or financial terms were mentioned.)  At the same time, SHAK announced it has rolled out sidewalk robots to deliver orders in Los Angeles for those orders placed via the UBER Eats app.  Later, SEC filings showed that INTC liquidated its stake in ARM during Q2, raising almost $147 million for the 1.18 million shares it sold.  Meanwhile, as part of its earnings call, CSCO announced it will cut 7% of its global workforce.  This is the company’s second round of cuts in 2024, having cut 5% (about 4,000 jobs) in February.  At the same time, SEC filings showed that BRKB took new stakes un ULTA and HEI and increased its holdings of CB and SIRI during Q2.  The same report stated that BRKB reduced its positions in COF and FND.  Later, ALK flight attendants rejected the tentative contract deal the airline had struck with their union.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Wednesday, the state of TX added NWG to its list of “bad companies” that cannot do business with the state because they do not own oil and gas stocks.  At the same time, LLY sent “cease and desist” letters to spas, telehealth companies, wellness centers, and doctors demanding that they stop selling unapproved “copycat” versions of LLY’s Zephound and Mounjaro weight loss and diabetes drugs.  Later, D and EQNR were the winning bidders in the Dept. of Interior auction of offshore wind rights off DE, MD, and VA. At the same time, the FTC finalized its ban on companies buying or selling fake online reviews.  The new rules give the agency the power to levy fines of up to $51,744 per violation. The rules were supported by AMZN, GOOGL, and YELP.  (Surveys show the new rules are supported by 90% of online shoppers.) 

Elsewhere, a federal judge in Kansas City has blocked a state of MO state rule barring financial professionals from considering so-called ESG factors in any investment advice.  The rule had been supported by oil industry lobbyists.  At the same time, the federal judge in the case brought by Epic Games (Fortnite maker) issued an order requiring the company to give Android phone users more ways to download apps.  The judge expressed impatience with GOOGL’s stall tactics and protests about the cost and difficulty of implementing changes.  He also said he will appoint a three-person “compliance committee” to determine GOOGL compliance with orders.  Later, DIS filed “unique” (perhaps read that as preposterous) motion Wednesday, demanding that a wrongful death lawsuit be thrown out of court because the surviving spouse had signed up for a one-month trial of DIS+ years before the death.  DIS claims the terms of that trial would bar a consumer from ever filing a lawsuit against the company.  Later, the Committee on Foreign Investment fined TMUS $60 million for failing to prevent and report data breaches of sensitive data. (The agency scrutinizes national security risks of foreign investments and TMUS is majority owned by German DTEGY.) 

Meanwhile, a DE judge upheld the $267 million legal fee request for legal firms that represented shareholders in the $1 billion settlement against DELL.  (This was the largest-ever legal fee approved for a shareholder lawsuit.)  After the close, the Dept. of Justice filed a motion urging the court to accept the BA revised plea deal including the company pleading guilty to a criminal conspiracy to commit charge and paying $243.6 million fine after breaching a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement.  (Relatives of many of the 346 people killed in the two fatal 737 crashes that preceded the 2021 agreement have urged the plea be rejected.)  Also after the close, the SEC and CFTC announced that another group of Wall Street firms have agreed to pay $470 million to settle charges they violated recordkeeping and communications rules (using off the record texting to communicate between firms).  AMP, LPLA, RJF, BK, TD, LTSAP, and TFC were among the companies that settled. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with just three of the 12 exchanges in the red.  New Zealand (+1.10%), Shanghai (+0.94%), and Singapore (+0.90%) paced the gains while Taiwan (-0.60%) was by far the biggest loser.  In Europe, the picture is even more green at midday with only one of 15 bourses in the red. The CAC (+0.02%), DAX (+0.32%), and FTSE (+0.06%) lead the region modestly higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day here as well.  The DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a +0.10% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.15% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are up a bit to 3.845% and Oil (WTI) is up nine-tenths of a percent to $77.67 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, July Core Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, and July Retail Sales (all at 8:30 a.m.), July Industrial Production (9:15 a.m.), June Business Inventories and June Retail Inventories (10 a.m.), TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (4 p.m.), and the Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 p.m.).  We also hear from Fed member Harker (1:10 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include BABA, AIT, DE, GRAB, JD, NICE, SPTN, TPR, and WMT.  Then, after the close, AMCR, AMAT, COHR, GLOB, and HRB report. 

In economic news later this week, on Friday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Friday we hear from FLO.

So far this morning, DE, NICE, TPR, and WMT all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, BABA, AIT, GRAB, JD, and SPTN missed on revenue while beating on earnings. There were no tickers on the other side this morning.  However, DDS missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Wednesday, Reuters reported that a potential seaport strike is looming in September that would impact East and Gulf Coast ports.  The report cites a shipping industry expect saying the strike could back up and reroute cargo for weeks or potentially months. However, major importers such as WMT have been rushing their orders to get the shipments through the ports prior to the September 30 expiration of the current dockworkers contract. (Industry analysts say it takes about six days to clear the backlog caused by a one-day strike.  So, a strike lasting weeks would delay both import and export shipments for months.)  Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the US, which is one of the largest plastic producers in the world, will back a global treaty that calls for a reduction in plastic production.

In late-breaking news, WMT raised its guidance for the full year citing steady consumer health and the relative strength of the overall economy. WMT CFO Rainey said, “…our members and customers…remain choiceful, discerning, value-seeking, focusing on things like essentials rather than discretionary items, but importantly, we don’t see any additional fraying of consumer health.”  Still, while raising its full-year 2024 forecast, the numbers do point to a second half that is not quite as strong as the first six months.  They are just stronger than earlier predicted.  Elsewhere, the Biden Administration released the prices for the first 10 drugs that resulted from the first-ever Medicare price negotiations. BMY, LLY, JNJ, MRK, AZN, NVS, AMGN, ABBV, and NVO are makers of those first 10 drugs subject to price negotiation and the White House says the lower prices will save Medicare $6 billion in the first year (based on 2023 drug demand data).

With that background, it looks as if markets are indecisively bullish again this morning. All three major index ETFs opened the premarket higher, but had all traded in an uncertain manner since then, producing more wick than body in all cases. All three are above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is clearly bullish (or could be said to be in strong Bear Flag patterns). Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains bearish, but with the downtrend line under pressure. In the long-term, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. In terms of extension, the SPY and especially QQQ remain a little stretched above their T-line but the DIA is in better shape. At the same time, the T2122 indicator remains in its mid-range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find the momentum (which has been on the Bulls side for a little over a week). However, the Bears have more slack to work with at this point. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green led by AMZN (+0.85%). However, the biggest dog, NVDA (-0.49%) paces the losers and is once again the dollar-volume trading leader. (This time only leading by a factor of 3.5.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped up to start the day Tuesday on better-than-expected PPI data.  SPY gapped up 0.64%, DIA opened 0.31% higher, and QQQ gapped up 1.03%.  From there QQQ started a steady rally that lasted right into the close.  Meanwhile SPY and DIA took an hour to find their feet before following QQQ in steady rallies that lasted all day as well.  This action gave us large, gap-up, white-bodied candles in the SPY and QQQ.  At the same time, DIA had a large, gap-up white-body candle with wicks at both ends (particularly at the bottom).  DIA also crossed back above its T-line (8ema).  This all took place on average volume in DIA and below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green with Technology (+2.54%) out in front leading the gainers higher.  Meanwhile, Energy (-0.49%) was by far, by 1.21%, the weakest sector.  At the same time, SPY gained 1.63%, DIA gained 1.02%, and QQQ gained 2.48%.  VXX dropped another 7.93% to close at 50.42 and T2122 spiked all the way up to the top end of its mid-range at 72.94.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.848% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.00% to close at $78.45 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was all Bulls, all the time after better-than-expected Producer Prices.  However, after an initial gap higher, price just steadily climbed as traders were generally happy, but also waiting on Wednesday’s CPI data.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday included July Core PPI (Month-on-Month) came in flat at 0.0% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% and well down from the June +0.3% reading). At the same time, July PPI (Month-on-Month) also came in down at +0.1% (versus a forecast and June value of +0.2%).  Then, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed a much larger drawdown than predicted at -5.205 million barrels (compared to a forecasted -2.000 million barrel and the prior week’s +0.180 million barrels). 

In Fed news, on Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated that he expects the FOMC to cut rates by the end of the year, saying that recent economic data has made him “more confident” inflation is on the right path.   However, he also said that he was worried about cutting too soon.  So, he called for “a little more data” (before cutting) to lower the risk that the Fed might need to reverse course after starting cuts.  Bostic said, “If economy evolves as I expect, there would be a rate cut by the end of the year.”  He added that (the Fed needs to) “see a little more data” (to ensure that the inflation trend is real).  He continued, “It would be really bad if we cut rates and then had to raise them again” (after starting to cut rates).  Bostic concluded, “I am willing to wait, but it’s coming … It is coming.”

In stock news, on Tuesday, CG agreed to buy BAX’s kidney-care unit Vantive for $3.8 billion.  Later, SBUX hired the now-former CEO of CMG Niccol as its new CEO.  At the same time, LMT and GD announced they have signed an agreement to jointly build solid rocket motors for missiles starting in 2025.  (NOC and LHX have been the main suppliers of such components to the defense industry in the past.)  Later, BA said it had achieved plane deliveries that were in-line with expectations.  In July, BA delivered 43 aircraft, in-line with analyst expectations and flat year-on-year, but slightly below the CFO’s previous guidance that deliveries would be “on par with June’s 44 aircraft.”  (BA’s main rival Airbus, EADSY, delivered 77 aircraft in July.)  

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that BX is exploring the sale of its Clarion Events unit for roughly $2.6 billion.  Later, FIT, GOOGL, and PTON announced a partnership to produce and sell fitness content.  At the same time, Reuters reported that PARA will begin laying off 15% of its workforce (about 2,000 people) as it looks to cut costs and leverage AI technologies.  (90% of the job cuts are expected to be complete by September.)  Later, GOOGL unveiled new Pixel smartphones and other devices with deeper AI integration.  (This product announcement is several months ahead of GOOGL’s traditional October launches as the company attempts to keep up with AAPL’s AI-integrated product introductions.)  At the same time, TLRY announced it will buy four craft breweries from TAP for an undisclosed sum.  After the close, ALL said it has agreed to sell its employer voluntary benefits business to StanCorp for $2 billion.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Tuesday, Poland signed a contract to buy 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and related maintenance equipment from BA for $12 billion.  Later, the NHTSA announced that GM is recalling 21,000 electric SUVs over anti-lock brake issues.  However, GM said it will solve the issue via an over-the-air update.  At the same time, F and MZDAF (Mazda) warned customers to avoid driving certain models still impacted by faulty Takata airbag inflators.  F said 374,300 vehicles had yet to have the previously-announced recall resolved while MZDAF estimated 83,000 of its US vehicles were still not fixed.  Later, INTC was sued by a Jewish former employee (VP of Engineering) who alleges that he was fired after complaining about a senior executive he believed was openly celebrating antisemitism. 

Elsewhere, the US Dept. of Defense announced the US had approved a $20 billion weapons package for Israel, including BA F-15 fighter jets worth $19 billion.  After the close, Bloomberg reported that the US Dept. of justice is mulling plans to seek the breakup of GOOGL after the agency’s recent court victory declaring GOOGL a monopoly and in violation of US antitrust law.  The report cited unnamed sources who say the DOJ is considering demanding GOOGL sell its Android phone operating system and Chrome browser businesses.  Also after the close, the state of TX sued GM, alleging the car company installed technology on more than 14 million vehicles to collect data about drivers to be sold to insurance companies.  Meanwhile, FE agreed to pay the SEC and state of OH $20 million to avoid prosecution in relation to a $60 million bribery scheme.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with eight of the 12 regional exchanges posting gains.  New Zealand (+2.06%, Taiwan (+1.06%), and South Korea (+0.88%) led the gainers.  On the other side, Shenzhen (-1.17%) was by far the biggest loser.  Meanwhile, in Europe, we see a much greener picture with only Belgium (-0.52%) in the red as opposed to 14 green bourses at midday.  The CAC (+0.43%), DAX (+0.46%), and FTSE (+0.35%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  As of 7 a.m., US Futures are pointing toward a start just on the green side of flat ahead of CPI data.  The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.04% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.05% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.83% and Oil (WTI) is down 0.31% to $78.11 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday are limited to July Core CPI and July CPI (both at 8:30 a.m.), and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 a.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include ARCO, EAT, CAE, CAH, DOLE, ESLT, ICL, PFGC, and UBS.  Then, after the close, CSCO, and STNE report. 

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initials Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, July Core Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, July Retail Sales, July Industrial Production, Jun Business Inventories, June Retail Inventories, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Harker.  Finally, on Friday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Thursday, we hear from BABA, AIT, DE, GRAB, JD, NICE, SPTN, TPR, WMT, AMCR, AMAT, COHR, GLOB, and HRB.  Finally, on Friday, FLO reports.

So far this morning, CAH, DOLE, ESLT, and UBS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.

In mortgage news, interest rates fell to the lowest level in more than a year last week as the national average 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming loan rate fell to 6.54%.  As a result, applications for refinance loans surged 35% compared to the prior week and were up a massive 118% versus the same week in 2023.  On the new home front, new purchase applications rose just 3% for the week and were still down 8% from the same week in 2023.  Even with the disparity in demand growth, refinance loan applications only made up 48.6% of all mortgage applications on the week.

In miscellaneous news, on Tuesday, the US Dept. Agriculture announced expanding the testing for bird flu among beef at slaughterhouses.  200 US herds have tested positive for the avian flu since March with one sample found in a slaughterhouse.   At the same time, overseas, Chinese lending fell to a 15-year low in July as banks gave out just $36.28 billion in new loans according to the People’s Bank of China.  This was down 88% from June and far below the average analyst estimate.  (July is traditionally a slow loan demand month, but the miss was very large.)  Back in the US, the National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index (survey results) rose to 93.7.  This was the highest reading, indicating the best small business sentiment in more than 2.5 years.

With that background, it looks as if markets are uncertain ahead of CPI data this morning. All three major index ETFs opened roughly flat and have printed indecisive (mostly wick) black-bodied candles since that point. (It is earlier than I normally report.) All three are above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend is clearly bullish (or could be said to be in strong Bear Flag patterns). Meanwhile, the mid-term trend remains bearish, but with the downtrend line under pressure in the QQQ. In the long-term, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. In terms of extension, the SPY and especially QQQ are getting a little stretched above their T-line but the DIA remains in good shape. At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back toward the top end of its mid-range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find momentum. However, the Bears have more slack to work with at this point. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, six of the 10 are in the green led by the biggest dog, NVDA (+1.57%), once again also leads on the dollar-volume traded. (This time leading by a factor of five.) On the other side, GOOGL (-1.41%) is way out front pacing the losses after the overnight news that the DOJ is considering asking to have the monopoly company broken up.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday started with a gap higher.  SPY gapped up 0.24%, DIA gapped up 0.21%, and QQQ gapped up 0.19%.  From there, all three major index ETFs rode the whipsaw in descending-magnitude waves and a slight bearish trend the rest of the day. This action gave us a gap-up black-bodied Spinning Top in the SPY, a gap-up, white-bodied Doji-type candle in the QQQ, and a gap-up, black-bodied Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA.  That meant that DIA retested and failed its T-line (8ema) while SPY and QQQ both retested and passed (stayed above) their own T-lines.  This happened on lower-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were red with Communication Services (-0.76%) leading the way lower.  Meanwhile, the biggest mover was Energy (+0.95%) and by far the leader of the two sectors that held up best.   At the same time, SPY gained 0.05%, DIA lost 0.34%, and QQQ gained 0.22%. VXX fell another 1.83% to close at 54.76 and T2122 fell back into the top of the oversold territory at 18.18.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.905% and Oil (WTI) spiked another 3.62% on Middle East war fears to close at $79.62 per barrel.  So, Monday was a whipsaw day with violent whips the first two hours of the day and then continuingly decreasing waves the rest of the day.  In general, it felt like a waiting day with traders wanting to see Tuesday’s PPI data.

The major economic news scheduled for Monday includes NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations, which came in flat at 3.0% (the same as June’s 3.0% reading).  In addition, the Fed report showed a big drop in the medium-term (3-Year) inflation expectations from 2.9% in June to 2.3% in July.  However, the longer-term (5-Year) expectations stayed flat (the same way 1-Year expectations had) at 2.8%.  Later, the Fed Budget Balance came in lower than expected at -$244.0 billion (versus the -$254.3 billion forecast but far above June’s -$66.0 billion).

After the close, AGRO and SLF missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, PACS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

In stock news, on Monday, Canadian bank BNS announced it is buying a 14.9% stake in US regional bank KEY for $2.8 billion ($17.17 per share).  Later, both S&P and MCO (Moody’s) downgraded JBLU credit rating after JBU announced plans to raise $3 billion in debt.  (JBLU intends to use its flier rewards program as collateral for the new debt.)  Meanwhile, BAC CEO Moynihan told CBS that he is urging the Fed to “consider lowering rates to prevent a potential economic downturn.”  (He said he is basing that request on seeing BAC customers spending at a 3% growth rate in July and August, which is half as fast as the July-August spending increase in 2023.)  On the other hand, UBS reported that their research indicates that the probability of a US recession fell from just a few months ago.

Elsewhere, CVX announced Monday that it has begun production in the world’s first “ultrahigh pressure” oil field.  The field, located under US waters in the Gulf of Mexico is now set to open up many deep-sea oilfield projects that are only accessible using 20,000 pounds per square inch of pressure.  The single well platform opened Monday will produce 75k barrels of oil and 28 million cubic feet of natural gas per day for the next 30 years. (However, the project did cost $5.7 billion and nobody has ever operated at those pressures, let alone over long periods of time.)  BP hoped to match the CVX feet by 2029.  Later, after the close, XOM laid off 59 employees as it begins the job cuts related to the acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Monday, GOOGL announced that it is deactivating Russian-based AdSense (advertising) accounts.  The search giant said its decision was due to “the ongoing developments in Russia.”  However, some analysts said this was a response to Russia slowing down YouTube service in that country.  Later, Bloomberg reported JNJ now has the support of 75% of the tens of thousands of lawsuit plaintiffs to propose the $6.5 billion talc settlement for court approval.  (75% is the US Bankruptcy Court approval standard.)  If the story is true, the court could impose the settlement terms on all of the 61,000 claimants.  Later, the TX Attorney General announced his office has formally launched an election year investigation into CNP (Houston electrical utility) related to “fraud and waste” in the wake of the Hurricane Beryl power outages. 

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reported Monday that its own investigation has uncovered that store-brand versions of Mucinex Extended Release sold at WBA, CVS, TGT, and WMT contain cancer-causing agent Benzene.  The report says the news agency information has been sent to the FDA.  However, neither the agency nor any of the retailers would comment for the report.  Meanwhile, the Biden Administration announced new proposed rules aimed at reducing consumer wait times, cumbersome forms, and hard-to-cancel subscriptions.  The FTC has begun accepting comments on the proposed rules while the FCC is already moving toward a similar settlement with the major telecom providers.  The Dept. of HHS said it will introduce similar rules for major healthcare and insurance providers in the near future as well. 

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only India (-0.85%) kept the Bulls from a clean sweep.  Among the gainers, Japan (+3.45%) was far out front, followed by Singapore (+0.72%) and Shenzhen (+0.43%) leading markets higher.  In Europe, the picture is much more dour at midday with only four of 15 exchanges in the green.  The CAC (-0.19%), DAX (-0.03%), and FTSE (-0.08%) are typical of the modestly red trading in the region in the early afternoon.  Meanwhile, in the US, as of 7:30 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a mixed and modest start to the morning.  The DIA implies a -0.08% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.28% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are down to 3.904% and Oil (WTI) is off a quarter percent to $79.88 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday includes July Core PPI and July PPI (both tat 8:30 a.m.) and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report (4:30 p.m.).  In addition, Fed member Bostic speaks at 1:15 p.m.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include Tuesday, HD, JHX, MLCO, ONON, SE, and TME.  Then, after the close, CIG, FNV, and NU report.

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, July Core CPI, July CPI, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initials Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, July Core Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, July Retail Sales, July Industrial Production, Jun Business Inventories, June Retail Inventories, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Harker.  Finally, on Friday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Wednesday, ARCO, EAT, CAE, CAH, DOLE, ESLT, ICL, PFGC, UBS, CSCO, and STNE report.  On Thursday, we hear from BABA, AIT, DE, GRAB, JD, NICE, SPTN, TPR, WMT, AMCR, AMAT, COHR, GLOB, and HRB.  Finally, on Friday, FLO reports.

So far this morning, HD, JHX, and TLN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, SE beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, ONON and TME missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Monday afternoon there was a 4.4 magnitude earthquake in Los Angeles (centered about 7.5 miles Northeast of downtown LA). Fortunately, there were no immediate reports of structural or infrastructure damage.  At the same time, Bloomberg reported foreign investment in China has fallen again this year, resulting in a net outflow.  Elsewhere, in Russia, Putin replaced the Chief of his General Staff (head of military) Gerasimov with the head of the FSB (successor to KGB) Bortnikov.  The move came after Ukrainian President Zelenskyy held a public staff meeting in which the Ukrainian military claimed they now control 1000 sq. km. of Russia’s Kursk region after seven days of their attack into the invader’s own country. Finally, in China, Bloomberg reports that Beijing has ordered rural banks to not settle recent bond purchase transactions as the central authorities attempt to control the country’s bond market rally. (In other words, Beijing is trying to force money into stocks.)

With that background, it looks as if markets are uncertain ahead of PMI data. All three major index ETFs gapped higher to start the premarket. However, all three have also sold off since then, printing black-bodied candles in the early session and taking price back to one or the other side of flat. DIA retested and has so far failed the retest of its T-line (8ema) while the SPY and QQ remain above their own T-line. The very short-term trend remains bullish while the mid-term trend is bearish. In the long term, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now back to being close to their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back into the top of its oversold range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find momentum. However, the bulls have slightly more slack to work. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, nine of the 10 are in the green led by the biggest dog, NVDA (+1.61%), which also leads on the dollar-volume traded by a factor of six. TSLA (-0.28%), which is usually the second heaviest dollar-volume traded stock is the only red in the group, but is also working on very low dollar volume compared to the normal premarket.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened modestly lower Friday.  SPY opened down 0.16%, DIA opened down 0.09%, and QQQ opened down 0.34%.  From there, all three of the major index ETFs meandered back-and-forth around the opening gap until 12:30 p.m.  Then the market saw a sharp rally for a little over an hour, followed by a weaker selloff for an hour, with all three then drifting modestly bullishly the rest of the day.  This action gave us small gap-down, white-bodied candles, with wicks at both ends in SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  DIA was a prototypical Spinning Top candle.  All three crossed back above their T-line (8ema), although DIA only did so by a dime.  This happened on average volume in DIA and QQQ as well as less-than-average volume on the SPY.

On the day, nine of the 10 sectors were green with Technology (+0.57%) and Financial Services (+0.56%) out front leading the others higher.  Meanwhile, Industrials (-0.10%) was the only sector in the red (barely).  At the same time, SPY gained 0.44%, DIA gained 0.16%, and QQQ gained 0.52%. VXX plummeted 12.12% to close at 55.78 and T2122 fell but remained in its mid-range at 38.79.  On the bond front, 10-year bond yields fell to 3.94% and Oil (WTI) popped another 1.04% to close at $76.98 per barrel.  So, Friday was a meandering day with less energy that the other days in the week.  As a result, the magnitude of the whipsaws Friday was muted. 

This action ended a tumultuous week that started with a huge gap lower and featured heavy volatility, especially early in the week.  That said, the week ended as “much ado about nothing” as stocks rallied back from the huge INTC-inspired gap lower Monday.  SPY ended the week up 0.02% after trading in nearly a 5% range during that time. DIA did end the week 0.50% lower after having been down more than 3% at one point.  And QQQ was the show-stealer, closing the week up 0.37% after having been down 5.59% at one point and trading in almost a 7% range for the 5-days.

There was no major economic news scheduled for Friday. In addition, there were no earnings reports after the close Friday.

In Fed speak news, on Saturday, Fed Governor Bowman softened her normal very hawkish tone.  She noted “welcome” evidence of inflation reduction and seemed to indicate rate cuts will be needed if inflation stays on a downward trajectory.  Bowman said, “Should the incoming data continue to show that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2% goal, it will become appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming overly restrictive on economic activity and employment.”  The prepared remarks were delivered to a Kansas City Banking Assn.

In stock news, on Friday, STLA announced it is planning to lay off 2,450 US workers later this year as it plans to end production of the “Ram 1500 Classic” truck.  (Layoffs may begin as soon as October 8.)  Later, SBUX gained on a Wall Street Journal report that activist fund Starboard Value had taken a significant position in the company.  At the same time, BA announced it had been awarded a $2.56 billion contract from the USAF for the development of two rapid prototypes of airborne warning and control aircraft.  Later, after the close, C announced it has initiated a process to sell its Trust Services business unit.  (No details were provided.)  On Saturday. Reuters reported that CSCO will cut thousands of more jobs in a second round of layoffs this year.  (CSCO laid off 4,000 employees in February.)  Also on Saturday, TSLA stopped taking orders for the cheapest version of its Cybertruck ($61k) and not only has the $100k version available for sale.

In stock legal and governmental news, on Friday, the NHTSA announced it had opened an investigation into 330k HYMTF (Hyundai) vehicles over potentially faulty seatbelts.  At the same time, the SEC announced it had reached settlements with the CEO of IDEX and two of the company’s former executives related to securities fraud and misleading financial reporting.  Later, JPM asked a federal judge in Manhattan to dismiss its case against Russian VTB Bank, which was seeking to recover $439.5 million in accounts frozen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  JPM said it was being coerced to request the dismissal by a Russian injunction on JPM and fear of what retaliatory action would take place if the suit was not dropped.  At the same time, META won an appeal by RFK Jr.’s anti-vax group which had been alleging censorship due to META’s policy against the spread of misinformation.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the green with eight of the 12 exchanges in positive territory.  Taiwan (+1.42%) and South Korea (+1.15%) led the gainers while Singapore (-0.81%) paced the losses.  In Europe, with the sold exception of Belgium (-0.18%) we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.05%), DAX (+0.28%), and FTSE (+0.59%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:45 a.m., Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.20% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.22% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-Year bond yields are back up to 3.955% and Oil (WTI) is up another 1.09% to $77.68 per barrel in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday includes NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (11 a.m.), the WASDE Ag report (noon), and Fed Budget Balance (2 p.m.).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the open include GOLD, CEPU, FTRE, and BEKE.  Then, after the close AGRO, PACS, AND SLF report.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get July Core PPI, July PPI, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report.  In addition, Fed member Bostic speaks.  Then Wednesday, July Core CPI, July CPI, and EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories report.  On Thursday, we get Weekly Initials Jobless Claims, Weekly Continuing Jobless Claims, July Core Retail Sales, July Export Price Index, July Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index, July Retail Sales, July Industrial Production, Jun Business Inventories, June Retail Inventories, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  We also hear from Fed member Harker.  Finally, on Friday, July Building Permits, July Housing Starts, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports later this week, on Tuesday, we hear from HD, JHX, MLCO, ONON, SE, TME, CIG, FNV, and NU.  Then Wednesday, ARCO, EAT, CAE, CAH, DOLE, ESLT, ICL, PFGC, UBS, CSCO, and STNE report.  On Thursday, we hear from BABA, AIT, DE, GRAB, JD, NICE, SPTN, TPR, WMT, AMCR, AMAT, COHR, GLOB, and HRB.  Finally, on Friday, FLO reports.

So far this morning, GOLD and BEKE reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FTRE missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In miscellaneous news, on Friday, the CFTC said that short bets on 5-Year Treasury Bond Futures were now the largest on record.  The report stain almost 1.7 million contracts of short bets were in place as of the week ending Aug. 6.  (Two-Year and 10-Year Bond Future short bets also increased during the week, but were not at record levels.)  Elsewhere, the state of MI reported a human case of Swine Flu on Friday. (The source of exposure is still under investigation and no word on patient outcome was given.)  Meanwhile, Sunday was the 900^th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (if you do not count the 2014 invasion that stole Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine) and the 6^th day of the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk oblast of Russia.

With that background, it looks as if markets are tepidly bullish again early today. All three major index ETFs made a modest gap higher to start the premarket. Since then, SPY and DIA have printed white-body, small-wick candles while QQQ had printed a black-body, mostly-wick candle. All three are back above their T-line (8ema) and the short-term trend remains bullish. However, the mid-term trend is bearish. Still, while the bullish trend line is broken, the longer-term charts remain bullish. In terms of extension, all three major index ETFs are now back to being close to their T-line (8ema). At the same time, the T2122 indicator is back into the mid-range. So, the market has some room to run if either side can find momentum. With regard to those 10 big dog tickers, eight of the 10 are in the green led by the biggest dog, NVDA (+0.79%), which also leads by far on the dollar-volume traded as usual, and AMZN (+0.78%). The second-largest dollar volume trader is TSLA (-0.30%), which is also the biggest loser in premarket.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the Man in the Green Bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby, it’s a job. The gains are real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service