The American Consumer

The American consumer is alive and well according to the sales numbers during the Thanksgiving holiday.  Black Friday sales reached new record highs, and now the Cyber Monday sale topped all-time highs coming in a 6.56 billion.  The market lacked volume because everyone must have been online looking for deals.  As those credit cards begin to cool down the Tax bill in Congress is seriously heating up.  Even the President himself is working the Hill trying to secure enough votes to pass this major reform bill.  Expect the market to be sensitive to the news on the bill’s progress.  Big an very fast price action moves could be possible as the potential votes are won or lost.  Let’s hope the Presidents Twitter feed remains quite on the subject!  Plan accordingly.

On the Calendar

We kick off the day on the Economic Calendar with the 8:30 AM Industrial Production report.  October is expected to widen the deficit from 64.8 billion to 64.1 September.  There will also be an advanced report used for GDP inputs.  At 9:00 AM is the Case-Shiller home prices number which consensus expects a 0.4% increase in September.  At 10:00 AM we get the Consumer Confidence Report which last month was at a 17-year high but is expected to pull back slightly to 124.5.  We have Fed Speakers at 9:15 and at 10:00 AM as well as several other nonmarket-moving reports.

On the Earnings Calendar, we show 46 companies reporting today with the biggest group coming after the bell.  ADSK, MOMO, AABA, and MRVL are some worth noting.

Action Plan

Yesterday the market just seemed to wander around lacking volume an purpose.  Pretty much as expected with extended vacations and Cyber Monday shopping.  Unfortunately, the lackluster day left behind questionable daily candle patterns hinting of slight bearishness not nearly enough to shift the bullish trend.  This morning Futures are pointing to a gap up open on the back of a new record with more than 6.5 billion in Cyber Monday sales.  A very good week to be in the shipping business!

I will continue to look for new trade entries, but I will not chase or force trades.  Trading for the sake of having something to do is unwise.  I get the sense the market is waiting around to see if Congress follows-through on their Combo Tax Bill – Kill Obamacare plan.  A failure to pass could move the market sharply lower so expect the market to be very sensitive new reports.  Very fast reversals as this congressional battle progress and the Washington spin machine whips up the drama.

Trade Wisely,

Doug