On Monday, markets started higher with SPY gapping 0.23% higher, DIA gapping up 0.17%, and QQQ opening 0.26% higher.  At that point, the two large-cap index ETFs ground sideways for 30 minutes.  For its part, QQQ sold off hard during that half hour, recrossing the opening gap to the lows of the day at 10 am.  Then SPY and DIA rallied until noon, before grinding sideways in a tight range the rest of the day.  At the same time, QQQ road the rollercoaster back and forth across the opening gap 10 times over the day.  This action gave us indecisive candles in the SPY (white-bodied Spinning Top) and QQQ (black-bodied Doji) and a white-bodied candle in the DIA.  QQQ failed a retest of its T-line (8ema) while the two large-cap index ETFs remained above their own T-lines. 

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.63%) way out front leading the way higher while Healthcare (-0.80%) was by far the lagging sector.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.45%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.16%.  The VXX fell 1.69% to 23.30 and T2122 rose further into the overbought territory to 89.15.  10-year bond yields climbed to 3.874% while Oil (WTI) jumped up 2.36% to close at $78.89 per barrel.  This happened on well below-average volume in the SPY and QQQ and just a bit below-average volume in the DIA.  So, Monday was essentially a gap-up drift day where the market was waiting on more earnings and the Fed decision before putting a lot of new money to work. 

The major economic news reported Monday includes the Preliminary July S&P US Manufacturing PMI, which came in above expectations at 49.0 (compared to a forecast of 46.4 and a June reading of 46.3).  At the same time, the Preliminary July S&P Global Composite PMI came in below the predicted level at 52.0 (versus a forecast of 53.1 and a June value of 53.2).  Finally, the Preliminary July S&P Services PMI also came in low at 52.4 (compared to a 54.0 forecast and a June reading of 54.4).  

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In stock news, TM announced Monday that it has terminated 1,000 workers (out of 19,000) at its joint venture with state-owned Guangzhou Automotive Group in China.  This move was just the latest in a string of similar announcements from automakers that signal pressure from the auto price wars in China.  Elsewhere, the AAL pilot’s union has indefinitely postponed the ratification vote on the tentative contract deal that was revised over the weekend (following the better-than-original deal to which UAL pilots had agreed).  Meanwhile, BAYRY (Bayer) cut its full-year earnings forecast for the second time this year.  The move comes as the company also announced a $2.8 billion write-down of its glyphosate-related assets citing weak global demand for glyphosate-based weed killers.  At the same time, TSLA announced it would begin offering 7-year (84-month) loan terms on the purchase of new cars in an effort to reduce monthly payments for potential customers.  Later, FDX pilots rejected a tentative contract deal with the company, which had included a 30% pay increase over the new contract.  The contract was rejected by 57% of the voters.  No strike is imminent and negotiations will resume soon, likely under the supervision of the National Mediation Board.  After the close, PFE announced that the supply of 30 drugs may be disrupted following an NC tornado last week (which accounted for 25% of the company production of the drugs in question).  For now, the company has placed order limits on hospitals for the 30+ drugs (64 different formulations of the 30 drugs).

In stock legal and regulatory news, the FDIC called on banks (without naming any bank in particular) to fix their incorrect financial statements.  Specifically, FDIC says banks have been misstating (reducing) the uninsured deposits on its books.  (Banks are doing this to reduce the amount of “special assessment” the FDIC said it will charge to recoup losses from the three bank collapses earlier this year.)  At the same time, AMC filed a revised “stock conversion plan” with a Delaware court, hoping to address the court’s concerns and allow it to issue millions of new shares of common stock.  Later, the Fed fined UBS $268.5 million for misconduct by CS (which UBS bought out) related to the handling of defunct Archegos Capital.  Elsewhere, a TX jury ruled GOOGL must pay $338.7 million for violating the patents of Touchstream Technologies related to GOOGL’s Chromecast.  After the close, the EU announced that ADBE now faces a full-scale antitrust investigation related to its $20 bid to buy designer platform Figma.  This announcement comes after the completion of a preliminary EU investigation.  Also after hours, AAPL was hit with a $1 billion class action lawsuit in the UK over its App Store fees.  (AAPL gets roughly $20 billion per quarter from App Store fee revenue.)  Finally, after hours, a federal labor board judge ruled that SBUX violated US labor law by firing a NY store supervisor who had organized workers to form a union

After the close, ARE, BRO, CDNS, CLF, FFIV, NXPI, RRC, and SSD all reported beats on the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, CHX, CCK, PKG, and WHR reported misses on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CADE and LBTYA both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  It is worth noting that CDNS raised its forward guidance while CHX and PKG both lowered their forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Only New Zealand (-0.70%) and Japan (-0.06%) were in the red.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (+4.10%), Shenzhen (+2.55%), Shanghai (+2.13%), and Taiwan (+0.97%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see the same picture taking shape at midday.  Only, Denmark (-0.42%) and Portugal (-0.07%) are in the red while the CAC (+0.16%), DAX (+0.12%), and FTSE (+0.12%) lead the region higher on volume but actually significantly lag all the smaller exchanges on move size in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.06% open, the SPY is implying a +0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.32% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are climbing again to 3.904% and Oil (WTI) is up two-tenths of a percent to $78.90 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Conference Board Consumer Confidence (10 am) and the API Weekly Crude Stocks report (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include MMM, ALK, ACI, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, AVY, BIIB, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FELE, GEHC, GE, GM, HRI, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, LW, LTH, MCO, MSCI, NEE, NUE, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, SPOT, TRU, VZ, and XRX.  Then, after the close, GOOGL, ASH, CALM, CNI, CB, CSGP, CR, WIRE, ENVA, EQT, HA, KALU, MTDR, MSFT, NBR, NEX, RNR, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, UHS, V, WD, and WM report.      

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Building Permits, June New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are delivered.  On Thursday, we get June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 GSP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary June Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, we hear from AMG, ALKS, ALLE, APH, T, ADP, BA, BOKF, GIB, CHKP, CME, KO, CSTM, CPG, EQNR, EEFT, EVR, FTV, GD, GPI, HES, HLT, LAD, MHO, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, OC, PAG, BPOP, PRG, DGX, RCI, RES, RPM, R, SLGN, STLA, SCL, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TMO, TNL, UNP, UMC, WNC, AEM, ALGN, AWK, AMP, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AGR, CSL, CLS, CCS, CMG, CHDN, CMPR, FIX, EBAY, EW, ESI, FLEX, GFL, GL, GGG, HP, ICLR, IEX, INVH, LHX, LRCX, LSTR, MAT, META, MEOH, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NGD, NOV, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, PTC, RJF, ROL, STX, SEIC, STC, TER, TNET, TYL, URI, VMI, VICI, WFG, and WU.  On Thursday, AOS, ABBV, AGCO, AEP, AMT, MT, ARCH, AMBP, AVNT, BAX, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CVE, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CROX, CFR, DTE, EXP, EME, FAF, FCFS, FSV, FMX, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HCA, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MLM, MAS, MA, MCD, NYCB, NSC, NOC, ORI, OPCH, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PNR, PCG, RS, RCL, SPGI, SHEL, SAH, LUV, SRCL, STM, FTI, TECK, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, VLO, VLY, GWW, WAB, WST, WEX, WTW, XEL, ACHC, AB, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BZH, SAM, BYD, CP, CC, CINF, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, ENPH, EQR, ERIE, FSLR, F, FBIN, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, LYV, LPLA, MATW, MTH, MTD, MTX, MHK, MDLZ, OLN, OVV, PFG, ROKU, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TMUS, TXRH, X, VALE, and WY report. Finally, on Friday, we hear from AON, ARCB, AZN, AVTR, ITCL, BAH, CNC, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, NWL, NMRK, NVT, POR, PG, SAIA, SNY, TROW, TRP, and HE.

So far this morning, MMM, ALK, ABG, ADM, BIIB, DHR, DOW, GE, GEHC, GM, KMB, LOGI, MCO, MSCI, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, TRU, and VZ all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, XRX missed on revenue while beating on earnings. On the other side, BKU, GLW, IVZ, and LTH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, AVY, DOV, HRI, and SPOT missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that GLW and ST lowered their forward guidance while GE and GM both raised their own guidance.

In miscellaneous news, China in general, and Hong Kong, in particular, got a major shot in the arm from newly-released Chinese government support aimed at helping the country’s real estate sector, boosting consumer spending, and solving local government debt.  This came after Beijing announced its Q2 GDP growth was 6.3% year-on-year (an entire percent below the 7.3% expected growth).  However, the new measures were short on specifics leading to some worry this will end up being just more cheerleading, rather than actual substantial action.  Elsewhere, UPS and the Teamster Union return to the bargaining table today with one week left until the current contract expires (and the union strikes).  The union reports that all work condition-related issues have been resolved and the only remaining question is pay, where the sides reportedly remain significantly far apart.

With that background, it looks like markets are again working on more small, inside candles on the green side of break-even in the premarket. The QQQ is again retesting its T-line from below. Meanwhile, the SPY and DIA are seeming to continue pushing to break out of their tight consolidation in an uptrend. Those two large-cap index ETFs remain above their T-lines (8ema). As far as extension goes, all of the major index ETFs are near their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains in the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. With all that said, keep in mind that the DIA has been on a Bullish tear for over two weeks now, even as it had been the laggard all year. My point is that the mega-cap index is due for some rest. However, also bear in mind that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean. Finally, with this being a Fed week and heavy with major earnings, do not be surprised if we see both drifting and volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

The market couldn’t make up its mind on Friday.  The session started with a 0.40% gap higher in the SPY, a 0.17% gap up in the DIA, and a 0.66% gap higher in the QQQ.  At that point, the SPY began an all-day rollercoaster ride going back and forth between the open and the Thursday close.  Meanwhile, DIA did essentially the same thing, just meandering above the open and below the prior close in the process.  For its part, QQQ immediately sold off to recross its opening gap meandered around that prior close level until 3 pm, and then sold off again to go out on the lows.  This action gave us black-bodied near Marubozu, inside day candle in the SPY.  At the same time, DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top inside day candle, and QQQ just gave us a black-bodied candle with small wicks on both ends.

On the day, five of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.12%) out front leading the way higher while Industrials (-0.39%) lagged behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY was flat +0.00%, DIA lost 0.08%, and QQQ lost 0.30%.  The VXX fell 1.21% to 23.70 and T2122 fell again but remains in the overbought territory at 83.71.  10-year bond yields fell a bit to 3.837% while Oil (WTI) was up 1.56% to close at $76.83 per barrel.  So, Friday was basically a drift day where traders were not taking too many new positions in front of the weekend and the Fed decisions on Wednesday.  The two large-cap index ETFs remain above their T-line (8ema) and QQQ failed a retest to stay below its own T-line for the second day in a row.  This all happened on less-than-average volume in all three of the market index ETFs.

There was no major economic news on Friday and with the FOMC meeting this week, all the Fed members were in their “Quiet Period.”  

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In stock news, ISRG said Friday that demand for robot-assisted bariatric surgery (which often use the company’s products) has fallen since effective obesity drugs have hit the market.  (NVO already has an obesity drug approved in the US while LLY expects their own drug to be approved in the next few months.  Elsewhere, AMZN announced Friday that it is building a $120 million facility at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida for the processing of the company’s Kuiper internet satellites.  After the close, the Wall Street Journal reported that SPOT plans to raise the price of its ad-free premium plan in the US.  Also after the close, AAL announced it has raised its offer to pilots by $1 billion, matching the deal UAL agreed with its own pilots.  AAL pilots are set to begin voting on the now-revised deal today. Meanwhile, late Friday it was reported that DIS has held preliminary talks with three major sports leagues (NFL, NBA, and MLB) as part of its effort to create a strategic partnership while selling off part of ESPN.  (DIS owns 80% of ESPN with the other 20% owned by the private firm Hearst Communications.) On Sunday, YELL announced it has averted a strike by 22,000 Teamster truckers by backing down and agreeing to pay the $50 million it had already owed for worker benefits and pension deposits.

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday, Republican members of the US House of Representatives announced two committees have begun an investigation into the partnership between F and Chinese battery maker CATL.  Elsewhere, STLA lost its bid to block an Indian knock-off of its Jeep from Mahindra for selling in the US.  A judge in the Eastern District of MI ruled the nearly jeep-identical 2018 and 2019 models of the Roxor vehicle are no longer for sale and the post-2020 versions are unique enough to be sold in the US.  Later, the US 5^th Circuit Court of Appeals has granted a request from TSLA that all 16 judges reconsider an earlier decision made by three of them. The three originally ruled that CEO Elon Musk had violated federal labor law by tweeting that employees who joined a union would lose their stock options.  Meanwhile, BAH agreed to pay $377.4 million to settle its violation of US law when it billed the US government for international (non-US) and unrelated expenses.  After the close, a DE judge blocked a proposed settlement that would have allowed AMC to issue more shares, citing that the settlement would impact preferred shareholders who were not party to the settlement.

So far this morning, PHG and RYAAY reported beat to both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, DPZ missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned toward the red side.  Japan (+1.23%), Malaysia (+0.79%), and South Korea (+0.72%) paced the gainers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-2.13%), Shenzhen (-0.58%), and India (-0.37%) led the slightly more plentiful losers on the day.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape on modest moves at midday.  The CAC (-0.45%), DAX (+0.04%), and FTSE (-0.17%) lead on volume and are typical of early afternoon trading.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.13% open, the SPY is implying a +0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.31% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.794% and Oil (WTI) is up half of a percent to $77.49 per barrel in early trading.

There major economics news scheduled for Monday are limited to Preliminary Manufacturing PMI and Preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI (both at 9:45 am), and Preliminary Services PMI (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell are limited to DPZ, PHG, and RYAAY.  Then, after the close, ARE, BRO, CADE, CDNS, CHX, CLF, CCK, FFIV, LBTYA, LOGI, NXPI, PKG, RRC, SSD, and WHR report.     

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and the API Weekly Crude Stocks report.  Then Wednesday, Building Permits, June New Home Sales, EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are delivered.  On Thursday, we get June Durable Goods Orders, Preliminary Q2 GSP, Preliminary Q2 GDP Price Index, Preliminary June Goods Trade Balance, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Preliminary June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, and the Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, on Friday, June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Michigan Consumer Expectations, and Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations are reported.

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, MMM, ALK, ACI, HOUS, ADM, ARCC, ABG, AVY, BIIB, GLW, DHR, DOV, DOW, FELE, GEHC, GE, GM, HRI, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, LW, LTH, MCO, MSCI, NEE, NUE, PCAR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, SHW, SPOT, TRU, VZ, XRX, GOOGL, ASH, CALM, CNI, CB, CSGP, CR, WIRE, ENVA, EQT, HA, KALU, MTDR, MSFT, NBR, NEX, RNR, RHI, RUSHA, SNAP, TDOC, TXN, UHS, V, WD, and WM.  Then Wednesday, we hear from AMG, ALKS, ALLE, APH, T, ADP, BA, BOKF, GIB, CHKP, CME, KO, CSTM, CPG, EQNR, EEFT, EVR, FTV, GD, GPI, HES, HLT, LAD, MHO, EDU, ODFL, OMF, OTIS, OC, PAG, BPOP, PRG, DGX, RCI, RES, RPM, R, SLGN, STLA, SCL, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TMO, TNL, UNP, UMC, WNC, AEM, ALGN, AWK, AMP, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AGR, CSL, CLS, CCS, CMG, CHDN, CMPR, FIX, EBAY, EW, ESI, FLEX, GFL, GL, GGG, HP, ICLR, IEX, INVH, LHX, LRCX, LSTR, MAT, META, MEOH, MAA, MOH, MYRG, NGD, NOV, ORLY, OII, PPC, PLXS, PTC, RJF, ROL, STX, SEIC, STC, TER, TNET, TYL, URI, VMI, VICI, WFG, and WU.  On Thursday, AOS, ABBV, AGCO, AEP, AMT, MT, ARCH, AMBP, AVNT, BAX, BSX, BFH, BMY, BC, CRS, CARR, CBRE, CX, CVE, CNP, CMS, CMCSA, CROX, CFR, DTE, EXP, EME, FAF, FCFS, FSV, FMX, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HCA, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, KBR, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MLM, MAS, MA, MCD, NYCB, NSC, NOC, ORI, OPCH, PATK, PTEN, BTU, PNR, PCG, RS, RCL, SPGI, SHEL, SAH, LUV, SRCL, STM, FTI, TECK, TXT, TTE, TSCO, TPH, VLO, VLY, GWW, WAB, WST, WEX, WTW, XEL, ACHC, AB, ALSN, ATR, AJG, BZH, SAM, BYD, CP, CC, CINF, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, ENPH, EQR, ERIE, FSLR, F, FBIN, HIG, HUBG, INTC, JNPR, KLAC, LYV, LPLA, MATW, MTH, MTD, MTX, MHK, MDLZ, OLN, OVV, PFG, ROKU, SKX, SKYW, SSNC, TMUS, TXRH, X, VALE, and WY report. Finally, on Friday, we hear from AON, ARCB, AZN, AVTR, ITCL, BAH, CNC, GTLS, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, DAN, XOM, BEN, GNTX, IMO, NWL, NMRK, NVT, POR, PG, SAIA, SNY, TROW, TRP, and HE.

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported Friday that investors put $3.6 billion in fresh money into hedge funds during Q2.  This brought the industry’s net inflow to $12.64 billion for the year after investors took out $55.4 billion in 2022.  Equity funds led the Q2 inflow list with a $2.8 billion in net increase in money invested.  Elsewhere, over the weekend more than 80 million Americans had to deal with temperatures in excess of 105 degrees.  Meanwhile, Florida Gov. DeSantis made a move in his “culture war” by ordering an investigation into BUD.  DeSantis said he will have his people try to prove that a BUD marketing decision backfired and this failure amounted to a management breach of an obligation to shareholders (some of which who live in Florida).  I guess the Governor would prefer all public company decisions be put to a shareholder vote before execution…at least the decisions with which he disagrees.  He also replied to a reporter’s question by saying “they” were looking into a suit against DIS for the same reason (but no rationale was announced, so that one may just be talking).  Finally, the CME Fedwatch Tool tells us that the probabilities (based on Fed Futures) are a staggering 99.8% chance of a quarter-point hike on Wednesday. (It is fairly rare to see everybody…not just most or even the vast majority, but everybody…betting on the same outcome.)

With that background, it looks like markets are working on more small, inside candles in the premarket. The SPY and DIA are seeming to continue their tight consolidation in an uptrend. Meanwhile, QQQ is looking to consolidate in its modest pullback of an uptrend. The two large-cap index ETFs are above their T-lines (8ema) while QQQ is just below its T-line. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far away from their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains inside the bottom of the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Bear in mind that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean, especially using an indicator like T2122. Also, with this being a Fed week and heavy with major earnings, do not be surprised if we see both drifting and volatility.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Thursday was a divergent day with the Bears in control in the SPY and QQQ and the Bulls hanging on in DIA.  This started with a 0.21% gap down in the SPY, a 0.74% gap down in the QQQ, and a 0.23% gap up in the DIA.  Then the Bulls led a 20-minute modest rally.  However, from there SPY and QQQ sold off the rest of the day ending the day just up off the lows.  Meanwhile, the DIA continued to rally until 12:20 pm only to sell off modestly the rest of the day, ending up about 0.27% above the open.  This action gave us an Evening Star in the SPY and QQQ (with the QQQ even closing back below its T-line) as well as a white-bodied, high-wick candle in the DIA.  It is also notable that QQQ saw significantly higher-than-average volume, with above-average volume in the DIA, but well less-than-average volume in the SPY. 

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Utilities (+1.34%) way out front leading the way higher and Technology (-02.48%) and Consumer Cyclical (-1.79%) dragging the rest of the market lower.  At the same time, the SPY lost 0.66%, DIA gained 0.50, and QQQ lost 2.31%.  The VXX climbed 0.38% to 23.99 and T2122 fell but remains well into the overbought territory to 88.11.  10-year bond yields spiked up to 3.856% while Oil (WTI) was up 0.37% to close at $75.63 per barrel. So, Thursday looked like a reversal day in the QQQ (which has led markets all year) and to a lesser extent in the SPY.  However, neither of them has broken its uptrend yet.  On the other hand, the DIA (which has lagged all year) held up relatively well, gaining on the day. 

The major economic news on Thursday included Weekly Initial Jobless Claims coming in lower than expected at 228k (compared to a forecast of 242k and the prior week’s 237k).  At the same time, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index also came in lower than predicted at -13.5 (versus a forecast of -10.0 but slightly better than the June reading of -13.7).  The Philly Fed Mfg. Employment Index came in better than anticipated at -1.0 (compared to a forecast of -4.5 but still worse than June’s -0.4).  Later the June Existing home sales were reported as less than expected at 4.16 million (versus a forecast of 4.20 million and the May value of 4.30 million).  This was a month-on-month 3.3% decline as compared to the May value of +0.2%.  Elsewhere, US mortgage rates fell significantly in the week ending July 20.  30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.78% (the lowest level in four weeks) for the week down from 6.96% the week prior.  Then, after the close, the Fed said that Bank borrowing from the two emergency lending programs increased in the week ending July 19 going from $105 billion to $105.56 billion. 

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In stock news, GOOGL announced that, for the first time ever, YouTube has hiked prices for premium subscribers of multiple YouTube services.  Elsewhere, the CEO of UAL confirmed previous reports that the airline is having trouble getting pilots to take promotions to the captain role.  (50% of UAL’s 978 captain job openings have gone unfilled in the past year.)  The reason has been reported to be that Captain pilots have a much less predictable schedule in addition to a bigger paycheck.  Meanwhile, in its earnings call, TSLA confirmed that it is in preliminary discussions about licensing its “Full Self Driving” software to a major automaker.  Speculation is that the automaker involved would be STLA since F and GM already have their own self-driving programs well underway.  At the same time, AMC announced it has dropped its previous plan to charge tiered ticket prices based on the seat location within the theatre. 

In stock legal and regulatory news, the bill which increases the mandatory retirement age of pilots from 65 to 67 passed the US House in a large-majority bipartisan vote.  Elsewhere, the NHTSA said that TSLA has recalled 15,000 Model S and Model X cars due to a potential front seatbelt issue.  At the same time, an executive from STLA has pleaded guilty to Dept. of Justice charges of conspiracy to breach the Clean Air Act (by cheating on emissions testing).  Later, a US Appeals Court ruled that PZZA cannot force its delivery drivers to arbitrate claims that the company violated federal law by not reimbursing for vehicle expenses (mileage) after it was revealed the lead driver in the class-action suit had never even seen the arbitration agreement the company was trying to invoke to get the case dismissed.  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that the FTC is poised to pause its internal trial against MSFT over the ATVI acquisition.  At the same time, the US Dept. of Transportation has opened an investigation into DAL after a loaded plane sat on the tarmac without air conditioning for four hours Monday in 111-degree heat in Las Vegas.  (Multiple passengers had to be treated by medics.)

After the close, COF, BANF, ISRG, PPG, and SCHL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ASB and OZK beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CSX and WRB both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  Unfortunately, KNX missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Hong Kong (+0.78%), Thailand (+0.53%), and Malaysia (+0.49%) leading the gainers while India (-1.17%), Taiwan (-0.78%), and Japan (-0.57%) pacing the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape with a lean slightly more to the green side at midday.  The CAC (+0.29%), DAX (-0.41%), and FTSE (+0.11%) lead on volume and are fairly typical of the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.04% open, the SPY is implying a +0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.53% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down 3.837% and Oil (WTI) is rallying now up 1.10% to $76.46 per barrel in early trading.

On Friday, there are no major economics news scheduled.  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include AXP, ALV, AN, CMA, HBAN, IPG, RF, ROP, and SLB.  However, after the close, there are no reports scheduled.    

So far this morning, ALV, AN, DNKEY, HBAN, IPG, NHYDY, and ROP all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AXP and SLB missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, RF beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, SEOAY missed on both the top and bottom lines.  It is worth noting that ROP raised its forward guidance. 

In miscellaneous news, the Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Chopra told Reuters that the days of easy approvals for bank mergers are over. He went on to say, “There is no question past adjudications of mergers did not meet the level of analytical rigor that they ought to have.” He also said, “Banks can expect a more rigorous review of applications. The ink on the rubber stamp has dried up and … my hope is to see a shift from the regulators of moving from cheerleader to umpire.”  For what it’s worth, Chopra does also sit on the Board of the FDIC.  Elsewhere, the Fed launched its long-awaited “FedNow” instant settlement service covering 41 banks and 15 service providers.  While touted as a boon for everyday consumers, the move just means fund settlement for electronic payments should happen within seconds rather than hours to days later.

In other news, overnight the White House announced that it has secured “voluntary pledges” from OpenAI, MSFT, and GOOGL related to artificial intelligence.  The group will meet with President Biden at the White House today.  The commitment is that the group will create ways the consumers will be able to identify AI-generated information (like watermarks) as well as standards for how the companies and third parties test AI tools for security before they are released. The overall goal is to ensure AI safeguards without hindering innovation. With that said, like everything else in the world, intentions and platitudes are fine, but the devil is in the details when it comes to controlling a new technology that offers significant advantages to any individual, group, company, or country. Notably absent from the list of attendees are META, AAPL, and any Chinese or European representatives.

With that background, it looks like markets are working on inside candles in the premarket. The QQQ is now retesting its T-line (8ema) from below while the DIA has reversed and is giving us a black candle before the opening bell. With no major news planned for the day and earnings out of the way before the open, today may be more of a drift. The bears have the chart pattern in the market-leading QQQ and SPY. However, the Bulls have been in control all year and are not going to roll over on the back of a single candle. So, at this point, it is still looking like a pullback in an uptrend, with no strong indication a reversal has or is happening. As far as extension goes, none of the major index ETFs are far away from their T-line, but the T2122 indicator remains well into the overbought region. So, there is room to run in either direction. Just remember that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean, especially using an indicator like T2122. Finally, remember that it’s Friday. Pay yourself, hedge, move stops, and do whatever you need to do to get your account ready for the weekend news cycle. (Also, bear in mind there will be a slight weighting rebalance in the QQQ as of Monday. This is likely not a big deal, but it is happening.)

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets were indecisive on Wednesday after gapping higher (opening up 0.18% in SPY, up 0.24% in the DIA, and up 0.27% in the QQQ).  At that point, all three major index ETFs did some version of just moving sideways until 12:15 pm.  Then we saw a selloff that lasted until 2 pm, modest in the SPY and DIA and more pronounced in the QQQ (which recrossed its morning gap).  However, the bulls righted the ship, rallying until 3:30 pm when we saw modest selling in the last 30 minutes.  This action gave us indecisive candles in all three major index ETFs.  The DIA printed what could easily be seen as a Shooting Star of Gravestone Doji-type candle.  At the same time, the SPY printed a gap-up Doji of its own and the QQQ printed a black-bodied Spinning Top candle.  All three remain comfortably above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Communications Services (+1.90%) leading the way higher and both Technology (-0.34%) and Basic Materials (-0.33%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.22%, DIA gained 0.32, and QQQ lost 0.02%.  The VXX climbed 1.79% to 23.90 and T2122 climbed even higher into the overbought territory to 96.79.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.746% while Oil (WTI)was down 0.63% to close at $75.27 per barrel.  So, Wednesday was an indecisive day after the earnings-driven modest gap higher.  It seems traders are getting wary of whether the Bulls can keep up the momentum of the last 7 days of action and are thinking better of chasing at the current highs.  This happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY and QQQ, and above-average volume in the DIA. 

The major economic news on Wednesday included Preliminary June Building Permits, which came in below expectations at 1.440 million (compared to a forecast of 1.490 million and a May reading of 1.496 million).  At the same time, June Housing Starts also came in light at 1.434 million (versus a forecast of 1.480 million and a May value of 1.559 million, which was admittedly a blowout high number).  Later in the morning, the EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a smaller-than-anticipated drawdown of 0.708 million barrels (compared to a forecast of -2.440 million barrels but well down from the prior week’s number which showed a 5.946-million-barrel increase in inventories.

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In stock news, Bloomberg reported Wednesday that AAPL is working on artificial intelligence tools to rival OpenAI, GOOGL, META and others.  However, reportedly, AAPL has not yet developed a clear strategy for AI offerings. Elsewhere, after criticism related to the recent allegedly Chinese hacks, MSFT is expanding the suite of free security tools it offers customers.  At the same time, NFLX announced it will scrap its cheapest ad-free plan in order to boost the number of ad-supported members it has on the books.  Meanwhile, AAL and its pilots have resumed negotiations to improve their previously agreed tentative contract (after the UAL offer to its own pilots was sweeter).  AAL pilot voting is set to begin on Monday.  After the close, HCCI announced it has agreed to be bought by private equity firm J.F. Lehman for $1.2 billion in case ($45.50 per share).

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Wednesday, ATVI announced that it agreed to extend the deadline for closing the purchase by MSFT to October 18.  (Previously the deadline was August 29 and if the deal was not completed by that date MSFT owed ATVI $3 billion.  Along with the extension, the walk-away fee increases to $3.5 billion.) This extension was done to help secure UK approval for the acquisition.  Elsewhere, a federal judge in NY ordered TSLA to turn over emails from CEO Musk to JPM as part of a lawsuit over a bond contract (related to Musk saying “he had secured funding to take TLSA private in 2018”).  In other bank news, the Fed fined DB $186 million for failing to address previously identified money laundering.  At the same time, 200 US lawmakers said that they will not intervene if Teamsters go on strike against UPS.  (Although, truthfully, Congress has no power to intervene anyway other than to ask the President to invoke a cooling-off period prior to the strike.)   In related news, after-hours UPS said it would return to the negotiating table and sweeten its offer to the Teamsters.  Meanwhile, in Delaware, the Governor has signed a new law that will enable NKLA to double the number of shares from 800 million to 1.6 billion.  NKLA will resume its shareholder meeting on August 3 and with the new law will have the votes to offer new shares despite non-insider shareholder objections.  After the close, the SEC reported that it has accepted six ETF applications for the spot price of Bitcoin.  There was no schedule announced for any approval decisions.

After the close, TSLA, UAL, LVS, CCI, WTFC, and FNB all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, AA, EFX, IBM, KMI, and NFLX all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, COLB, DFS, and ZION all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, LBRT and STLD missed on both the top and bottom line.  It should be noted that CCI and EFX lowered their forward guidance.  However, UAL raised its forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets mostly in the red.  Japan (-1.23%), Shenzhen (-1.06%), and Thailand (-1.01%) paced the losses.  On the green side, India (+0.74%) was by far the biggest gainer.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are mostly green at midday.  The CAC (+0.40%), DAX (+0.25%) and FTSE (+0.64%) lead the region mostly higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a mixed start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.17% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.74% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are up sharply to 3.787% and Oil (WTI) is on the green side of flat at $75.46 per barrel in early trading. 

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (both at 8:30 am), June Existing Home Sales (10 am), and the Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ABT, ALFVY, AAL, BX, DHI, EWBC, FITB, FCX, GPC, INFY, JNJ, KVUE, KEY, MAN, MMC, NEM, NOK, PM, POOL, SAP, SNA, SNV, TSM, TRV, TFC, and WBS. Then, after the close, COF, CSX, ISRG, KNX, PPG, and WRB report.    

In economic news later this week, on Friday, there are no major economic news scheduled.

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, AXP, ALV, AN, CMA, HBAN, IPG, RF, ROP, and SLB report.

In miscellaneous news, Russia announced that starting today it is setting up a shipping lane in an attempt to continue its own grain exports.  However, at the same time, it said any ships traveling to Ukrainian ports will be assumed to be carrying military cargo.  (The obviously implied threat being the ships would be captured or sunk.)  Elsewhere, Elon Musk may have put a scare into TSLA investors, hinting that more price cuts may be coming and seeming much less concerned about profits now than self-driving as a potential profit engine in the future.  Musk said “The short-term variances in gross margin and profitability really are minor relative to the long-term picture. Autonomy will make all of these numbers look silly.”  Meanwhile, overnight, TSM beat but also made less revenue than a year prior (for the first time in 4 years).  It also revised its forecast, now expecting a 10% drop in revenue for the year. The world’s largest chipmaker cited weak global demand for everything from cars to cell phones.  (Oddly, carmakers have been saying sales continue to be very strong.)  However, TSM also cited high demand for high-end chips to support artificial intelligence as offsetting some of the weakness.

So far this morning, AAL, ABT, BX, DHI, FITB, JNJ, KVUE, MMC, PM, SNA, TSM, and TCBI all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines. Meanwhile, ALFVY and GPC missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, INFY, KEY, TRV, and TFC all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, ELUXY, NEM, NOK, and POOL all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

With that background, markets are looking to diverge in the premarket (ahead of data and more earnings). All three major index ETFs are looking at very small premarket candles at this point. However, the QQQ is gapping down strongly on last night’s NFLX report and TSLA. Nonetheless, all three remain above their T-line. So, at this point, it is looking a pause or pullback with no indication trend has changed. As far as extension goes, with the morning pullback in QQQ, none of the major index ETFs are too far away from their T-line, but the T2122 indicator is again deep into the overbought region. Just remember that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Tuesday was the Bull’s day.  After strong earnings from the big banks, we saw a very modest gap lower (down 0.06% in the SPY, down 0.05% in the DIA, and down 0.16% in the QQQ).  However, the two large-cap index ETFs immediately started to rally steadily.  The SPY kept up a 45-degree rally all day long.  Meanwhile, the DIA rallied more sharply until noon and then traded sideways the rest of the way.  For its part, QQQ continued lower for 10 minutes after the open and then ground sideways for an hour, but then it rallied strongly all the way into the close.  There was a small amount of profit-taking in the last 15 minutes of the day in all three major index ETFs.  This action gave us large, white-bodied candles in all three with the QQQ having more wick on both ends than the other two.  It is worth noting that DIA finally broke through the resistance level that had held it down all year while the SPY and QQQ were already at new highs for the year.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the green with Financial Services (+1.41%) leading the way higher and Utilities (-0.42%) lagging behind the other sectors.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.73%, DIA gained 1.07%, and QQQ gained 0.82%. The VXX fell 1.63% to 23.48 and T2122 climbed higher into the overbought territory to 94.01.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.783% while Oil (WTI) spiked 2.06% to close at $75.68 per barrel. So, Tuesday saw markets drive higher all day following the strong morning earnings.  This happened on less-than-average volume in the SPY, average volume in the QQQ, and higher-than-average volume in the DIA. 

The major economic news on Tuesday, June Retail Sales (month-on-month) came in below expectation at +0.2% (compared to a forecast of +0.5% and a May reading of +0.5%).  At the same time, June Industrial Production (month-on-month) also came in below what was anticipated at -0.5% (versus a forecast calling for dead flat +0.0% but in line with May’s -0.5%).  This resulted in a very low June Industrial Production (year-on-year) growth of -0.43% (compared to a forecast of +1.10% and the May value of +0.03%). Later, May Business Inventories were reported as expected at +0.2% (versus a forecast of +0.2% and the April reading of +0.1%).  May Retail Inventories came in lower than predicted at -0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.0% but did not fall as much in April’s -0.2% number).  Then after the close, API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks did not show as big of a drawdown as expected at -0.797 million barrels (versus a forecast of -2.250 million barrels but still far below the prior week’s inventory build of 3.026 million barrels.

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In stock news, the US announced another $1.3 billion in defense aid for Ukraine.  This included significant orders for LHX and AVAV products.  At the same time, WMG has announced it has partnered with TikTok in a broad deal that was the first of its kind, to license WMG music.  Elsewhere, PFE announced it has partnered with venture capital firm Flagship Pioneering to invest $100 million to develop 10 new drugs.  At the same time, META released a commercial version of its artificial intelligence model Llama 2.  Later, MSFT announced a 50% premium for its Office suite with access to a new AI Co-Pilot.  The charge will be $30 per month, per user for the Office 365 Co-Pilot.   In the Auto space, carmaker STLA announced it has secured long-term semiconductor supply contracts with IFNNY, NXPI, ON, and QCOM worth $11.2 billion and running through 2030.  Meanwhile, TDOC told Reuters it is expanding its partnership with MSFT with plans to use the tech giant’s artificial intelligence to automate clinical documentation on its telehealth platform.  In the defense space, LMT raised its full-year guidance on strong sales and profit outlooks from weapons contracts.  After hours, AUR announced it plans to sell $600 million of Class A stock in a private placement to raise capital.  (AUR shares fell 10% in post-market trading on the news.)  Also after hours, Reuters reported that the AAL pilots union has warned that the ratification of the recently agreed contract deal is now in jeopardy after the UAL pilots union got a better deal.  (The AAL deal raises pilot pay 42.5% over four years while the UAL pilot deal offers cumulative pay increases of 34.5% – 40%. The ratification vote is scheduled to start next week.)

In stock legal and regulatory news, the NHTSA announced it has opened another investigation of TSLA following another deadly crash in CA, this time of a 2018 TSLA Model 3 which was operating under “Full Self Driving” mode.  In other TSLA news, in Germany, TSLA faced a grilling from the public in a q-and-a session meant to ease citizens’ minds about the impact of the electric carmaker’s plant expansion to become the largest TSLA factory in the world.  (The plant now makes 5,000 cars per week and is expecting to double capacity and then double again to 1 million cars per year.  The current largest car plant in Germany is VLKAF’s Wolfsburg plant which has the capacity to make 800k cars per year, but now produces 400k a year.)   Back in the US, 22 Republican Congressmen (mostly from the MAGA caucus) wrote and published an open letter to the FTC urging the agency to drop its objections to the MSFT purchase of ATVI, calling the opposition an egregious example of rejecting sound antitrust policy.  (Sound policy would apparently mean not opposing mergers.)  At the same time, YUM’s Taco Bell brand won its bid to bust the trademark on the term “Taco Tuesday” (which had been held by the much smaller and private Taco John’s chain).  Meanwhile, the FTC spearheaded 101 federal and state law enforcement agencies on a crackdown on telemarketing robocalls with one of the main targets being FLNT.  (FLNT previously agreed to pay a $2.5 million fine while three other firms agreed to a total of $15.7 million in fines.)  In lawsuits going the other way news, JNJ added its name to the list of pharmaceutical companies suing the US government in a bid to prevent the US from negotiating drug prices for Medicare.  (All of those cases may have a steep hill to climb since in every instance the companies sell the drugs in question in smaller quantities at lower prices to other countries than what is charged to Medicare.)  After the close, T made a court filing saying that it no longer intends to immediately remove lead cable in the ground in Lake Tahoe that it had previously agreed to remove.  The telecom company says it will now do further analysis before deciding.  (This move mentioned and pushed back against the recent Wall Street Journal article discussing the risks of lead cables to groundwater.)

After the close, AIR, PNFP, and HWC all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, OMC reported a miss on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, IBKR and WAL both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  Unfortunately, JBHT missed on both the top and bottom lines.  The biggest surprises were huge upside revenue shocks from the financials (76% upside from IBKR, 71% upside from WAL, and 80% upside from PNFP). 

Overnight, Asian markets leaned to the green side.  Japan (+1.24%) was by far the leader to the upside while Singapore (+0.64%) and Australia (+0.55%) followed.  On the downside, Taiwan (-0.65%) led the four red exchanges lower.  Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks are in the green as only two of the 15 bourses are in the red at midday.  The FTSE (+1.50%) is far-and-away the leader after a massive reduction in inflation. Thile the CAC (+0.27%) and DAX (-0.04%) lag behind.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward the day starting just on the green side of flat.  The DIA implies a +0.09% open, the SPY is implying a -0.02% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.764% and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $75.87 per barrel in early trading.    

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include Preliminary June Building Permits and Preliminary June Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am), and EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include ALLY, ASML, BKR, CFG, ELV, FHN, GS, HAL, MTB, NDAQ, NTRS, and USB.  Then, after the close, AA, COLB, CCI, DFS, EFX, IBM, KMI, LVS, LBRT, NFLX, STLD, TSLA, UAL, WTFC, and ZION report.   

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, June Existing Home Sales, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Then Friday, there are no major economics news scheduled. 

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, we hear from ABT, ALFVY, AAL, BX, DHI, EWBC, FITB, FCX, GPC, INFY, JNJ, KVUE, KEY, MAN, MMC, NEM, NOK, PM, POOL, SAP, SNA, SNV, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, COF, CSX, ISRG, KNX, PPG, and WRB.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, AN, CMA, HBAN, IPG, RF, ROP, and SLB report. 

In miscellaneous news, the UK reported 7.9% annual inflation as of June, which is the worst among major economies.  However, that number is down sharply from 8.7% on an annual basis in May.  As a result, UK government borrowing costs also dropped abruptly today and the UK market now sees it less likely that the BoE will deliver another half-percent hike in August as had been expected.  Elsewhere, in the US, YELL (the country’s third-largest less-than-truckload freight carrier) faces a strike by 22,000 teamsters as soon as next week.  This comes after the company failed to make $50 million in contractually-required benefits contributions.  (YELL is on the edge of bankruptcy again, for the fifth time since 2009, after getting lenders to agree to a waiver in June.  YELL had proposed operational changes that were rejected a few weeks ago by the union, which had previously already made concessions on wages, hours, and some benefits.  As an aside, YELL was formed by consolidating large and small trucking companies and has never (dating back to the 1980s) been good at the process of combining.  In recent years, the company has bought non-union firms with the apparent goal of continuing to get more Teamster concessions.  Now 8,000 of the company’s 30,000 employees are non-union.

So far this morning, ASML, ELV, USB, BKR, MTB, FHN, SDVKY, CBSH, NDAQ, and CVNA have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, VLVLY beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, HAL, CFG, and WDS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  It is worth noting that ASML and ELV both raised their forward guidance.

With that background, it looks like markets are again pausing ahead of economic data and earnings, even after receiving a number of good earnings reports this morning. All three major index ETFs are looking at very small, inside-day, candles at this point. As has been the case all year, DIA looks the weakest of the three while SPY and QQQ are seemingly pausing at the top of their year-long rallies. However, SPY was the laggard Tuesday. All three remain above their T-line and are, so far at least, just giving us a strong uptrend. As far as extension goes, we have been up a very long number of consecutive candles in the QQQ and it is getting a little stretched from its T-line (8ema). However, the two large-cap indices are fine in that regard and have had recent pullback days. The T2122 indicator is again well up into the overbought region. Just remember that markets can stay extended longer than we can stay solvent predicting the reversion to the mean.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Monday saw stock open flat and mixed (down 0.04% in the SPY, down 0.12% in the DIA, and up 0.23% in the QQQ).  However, at that point, all three major index ETFs got in sync and the Bulls led a very slow, steady rally all the way up to 3:30 pm.  Then the last 30 minutes of the day saw modest but steady profit-taking.  This action gave us white-bodied candles in the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  Specifically, the SPY and DIA both printed Bullish Engulfing candles with upper wicks.  Interestingly, the DIA closed right up against the resistance level it has failed multiple times (including Monday) since mid-June.   Meanwhile, the QQQ could be seen to have completed a Doji Continuation (Sandwich) signal.

On the day, seven of the 10 sectors were in the green with Technology (+1.21%) in the lead and Communications Services (-2.28%) far and away the worst-performing sector.  At the same time, the SPY gained 0.35%, DIA gained 0.20%, and QQQ gained 0.93%. The VXX fell very slightly to 23.87 and T2122 climbed back up into the low end of the overbought territory at 83.72.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.811% while Oil (WTI) also dropped 1.76% to close at $74.10 per barrel.  So, Monday saw follow-through on the strong week and strong premarket earnings.  However, then it was time to lock in profits and get ready for the weekend news cycle. This happened on less-than-average volume in the QQQ and DIA and very-low volume in the SPY.

The major economic news on Monday was limited to NY Fed Empire State Mfg. Index came in above expectations coming in at a barely positive (barely indicating improving conditions relative to overall economic conditions) at 1.10 (compared to a forecast of -4.30 but lower than the June reading of 6.60).  In economic speak news, Treasury Sec. Yellen did an interview with Bloomberg Monday morning (speaking from India where she was attending a G-20 Finance Ministers meeting).  Yellen said, “For the United States, growth has slowed, but our labor market continues to be quite strong. I don’t expect a recession.”  Later she also said, “The most recent inflation data were quite encouraging.”  After being asked, Yellen she expects a new executive order restricting investment in three Chinese sectors (semiconductor, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence).  Elsewhere, the NY Fed released its monthly survey of Consumer Expectations, which looked at the credit markets.  In June, the Fed found consumers were finding it tougher to borrow as credit application rejection rates rose to 21.8% (the highest level since June 2018).  Drilling down, auto loan applications had a 14.2% rejection rate, new mortgages were refused 13.2% of the time, and 20.8% of mortgage applications for refinancing were turned down.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, FSR announced it plans to produce 100 limited edition electric SUVs for the Indian market, with deliveries scheduled to being during Q4.  In other EV news, MULN announced they have received a 30-truck order from Newgate Motor Group in Ireland.  Elsewhere, GM executive told Reuters that the carmaker simply can’t make and deliver cars fast enough to keep up with demand at dealerships.  On Monday, the GM President for North America told the news outlet, “At this particular point in time, we could just about sell every product that we can build.”  A week after a Wall Street Journal article identified VZ and T as being among several telecom giants that are guilty of abandoning huge networks of lead cables in the ground across the country, analysts downgraded both companies’ stock on the risk they will be required to pay for the cleanup.  As a result, the whole sector fell sharply with VZ (-7.50%) and T (-6.69%) leading the way.   At midday, MAR signed a 20-year licensing deal with MGM which will allow Marriott rewards members to redeem points to book stays at MGM resorts.  Meanwhile, F announced that they are slashing prices on the F-150 Lightning trucks (by 17%) in hopes of gaining market share amid the current EV price wars.  The move comes after F sales of electric vehicles fell 2.8% in June and also about 36 hours after TSLA said it had produced the first of its long overdue Cyber trucks.

In stock legal and regulatory news, BKI announced it will sell its “Optimal Blue” unit for $700 million in the hope of addressing FTC antitrust concerns.  (The $700 million price tag was much lower than expected in this previously-hinted move.)  The FTC said back in March that it will oppose the ICE’s $11.7 billion acquisition of BKI over monopolistic pricing power concerns.  Elsewhere, the FDA approved a therapy (to treat respiratory syncytial virus) developed by a partnership from SNY and AZN for toddlers and infants.  At the same time, the TSLA board of directors agreed to return $735 million to settle a shareholder lawsuit claiming they had grossly overpaid themselves.  Across the pond, the MSFT appeal of the UK block on the acquisition of ATVI has been placed on hold for two months to “give the parties more time to resolve the issue out of court.”  Back in the US, TSLA filed suit against London-listed CAP-XX, claiming the company violated two patents owned by a TSLA subsidiary.  Meanwhile, a group of individual plaintiffs asked the US Supreme Court to temporarily halt the MSFT acquisition of ATVI after the 9th District US Court of Appeals rejected the FTC bid to get the same injunction at the end of last week.  After the close, the FTC and US Dept. of Justice sued FLNT for allegedly operating massive “consent farms” to trick nearly 1 million people into providing personal information and consent to receive telemarketing calls.  (These farms used deceptive ads promising free rewards from AMZN, WMT, and others as well as interviews for non-existent jobs in order to gain consent.)  At the same time, the CA Supreme Court ruled against UBER saying the company must face a lawsuit claiming it should have covered UberEats driver’s work-related expenses.  Finally, the FAA began an investigation of a UAL flight (flying a BA 767-300 jet) that lost its emergency evacuation ramp prior to landing in Chicago.  (The flight originated in Zurich, Switzerland and the ramp was found in a neighborhood near O’Hare airport.)

So far this morning, BAC, LMT, MS, NVS, PNC, BK, and SYF have all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  (SCHW reports at 8 am.)  The big banks in particular showed tremendous quarter-on-quarter growth with BK giving the market 87% revenue growth and 20% earnings growth, BAC delivering 72% revenue and 21% earnings growth, and PNC showing 45% revenue growth.  It is worth noting that PNC did lower its forward guidance. 

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Hong Kong (-2.05%) was by far the biggest loser, followed by Taiwan (-0.61%) and South Korea (-0.43%).  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are mostly green at midday.  While leading on volume, the CAC (-0.01%), DAX (-0.07%), and FTSE (+0.07%) are lagging the smaller exchanges on their moves. It should be noted that Russia (+1.13%) is the biggest gainer in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures point toward a start to the day just on the red side of flat.  The DIA implies a -0.01% open, the SPY is implying a -0.05% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are lower again to 3.768% and Oil (WTI) is up a half of a percent to $74.52 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include June Retail Sales (8:30 am), June Industrial Production (9:15 am), May Business Inventories and May Retail Inventories (both at 10 am), and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks (4:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include Tuesday, we hear from BAC, BK, SCHW, LMT, MS, NVS, PNC, PLD, and SYF.  Then, after the close, AIR, IBKR, JBHT, and WAL report.  

In economic news later this week, on Wednesday, Preliminary June Building Permits, Preliminary June Housing Starts, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, June Existing Home Sales, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Then Friday, there are no major economics news scheduled.   

In terms of earnings reports, on Wednesday, ALLY, ASML, BKR, CFG, ELV, FHN, GS, HAL, MTB, NDAQ, NTRS, USB, AA, COLB, CCI, DFS, EFX, IBM, KMI, LVS, LBRT, NFLX, STLD, TSLA, UAL, WTFC, and ZION report.  On Thursday, we hear from ABT, ALFVY, AAL, BX, DHI, EWBC, FITB, FCX, GPC, INFY, JNJ, KVUE, KEY, MAN, MMC, NEM, NOK, PM, POOL, SAP, SNA, SNV, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, COF, CSX, ISRG, KNX, PPG, and WRB.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, AN, CMA, HBAN, IPG, RF, ROP, and SLB report. 

In miscellaneous news, GS cut its estimate of the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to just 20%.  GS Chief Economist Hatzius said “The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession.”   Elsewhere, delayed filings with the SEC showed that BRKB reduced its holdings of ATVI from 6.7% to 1.9% during Q1.  (This was before recent MSFT victories that have the company inching closer to closing the acquisition of ATVI.)  Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that CUBI (PA-based regional bank) has become the darling bank of the crypto industry, serving hundreds of digital-asset companies since Silvergate Capital, SBNY, and Silicon Valley banks failed in March.  This includes several crypto exchanges, market-makers, and stablecoin issuers.  There was no word on whether Fed or other regulators have (yet) expressed any interest in CUBI.

With that background, it looks like markets are again unsure ahead of economic data, even after we received blowout earnings reports this morning. All three major index ETFs are looking at very small, inside-day, black candles at this point (ahead of data). As has been the case all year, DIA looks the weakest of the three while SPY and QQQ are seemingly pausing at the top of their year-long rallies. All three remain above their T-line and are, so far at least, just giving us a pullback within an uptrend. As far as extension goes, QQQ may be getting a little stretched from its T-line (8ema) but the two large-cap indices are fine in that regard. However, the T2122 indicator has climbed back up to the bottom of the over-bought region. So, once again, there is room to run (available buyers/sellers) in either direction. Nonetheless, also note that volume has been decreasing as a trend. There is a chance that means the big pool of traders is drying up now that we are three weeks into the new quarter.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets started the day higher again Friday, gapping up 0.23% in the SPY, up 0.48% in the DIA, and up 0.16% in the QQQ).  At that point, the QQQ rallied hard the first hour while the SPY and DIA were flat over that period.  This was the cue for the Bulls to take off early for the weekend.  The Bears were in control the rest of the way and it was just a matter of degrees.  The QQQ sold off more steeply, SPY sold off slowly, and DIA sold off sharply for 30 minutes before grinding sideways inside the opening gap from 11 am all the way into the close.  This action gave us a gap-up Shooting Star-type candle in the QQQ, a gap-up, black-bodied Spinning Top in the SPY, and a gap-up, small black-bodied Spinning Top in the DIA.  All three major index ETFs remain quite comfortably above their T-line (8ema) and while DIA failed to break through resistance again, no significant technical damage was done.

On the day, eight of the 10 sectors were in the red with Energy (-2.52%) way out front leading the way lower and Healthcare (+0.73%) holding up by far the best among the sectors.  At the same time, SPY lost 0.06%, DIA gained 0.36%, and QQQ lost 0.02%.  The VXX fell 1.20% to 23.92 and T2122 dropped back out of the overbought territory but remains in the top end of the mid-range at 70.83.  10-year bond yields shot back up to 3.846% while Oil (WTI) dropped 2.05% to close at $75.31 per barrel.  So, Friday saw follow-through on the strong week and strong premarket earnings.  However, then it was time to lock in profits and get ready for the weekend news cycle.  This happened with above-average volume in the QQQ, average volume in the DIA, and below-average volume in the SPY.

The major economic news on Friday, June Export Price Index fall much more than was expected at -0.9% (compared to a forecast of -0.2% but not as much as the May value of -1.9%).  At the same time, the June Import Price Index also fell more than expected at -0.2% (versus the forecast of -0.1% but not as far as the May reading of -0.4%).  So, even though this is meant to help explain whether the June Import Dollars and Export Dollars again are a result of higher prices or more goods, we can get a read-through on inflation from those indexes.  And the indexes imply inflation is falling.  Then later, the Preliminary July Consumer Sentiment came in much higher than expected at 72.6 (compared to a forecast of 65.5 and a June reading of 64.4).  Simultaneously, the Preliminary July Consumer Expectations also came in much better than anticipated at 69.4 (versus the 61.8 forecast and the June value of 61.5).  The same survey also gave us a Preliminary July Inflation Expectation also came in slightly above projected at 3.4% (compared to a forecast of 3.3% and a June reading of 3.3%).  (FYI, those are consumer-anticipated inflation over the next 12 months.)  Those survey results tell us the consumer is feeling much better about the present and future but also has slightly raised inflation expectations.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, LILM announced a $192 million financing package that includes a $75 million public stock offering and a $42 million private placement.  The stock offering is expected to close on July 18.  Elsewhere, MULN announced Friday that it has sent more than 350 Class 1 electric vehicles to its MS plant for final assembly.  In addition, the company reports 300 other Class 1 vehicles will also arrive at that plant for final assembly during the second half of 2023. At the same time, AAL and JBLU announced Friday that they will stop selling tickets on each other’s airline on July 21 as they wind down the “alliance” agreement in compliance with a court order.  Meanwhile, LLY said they have agreed to buy privately-held Versanis for $1.93 billion.  (Versanis drugs eat fat cells without impacting appetite.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that SAN is expanding its US investment banking operations including hiring 50 new bankers to compete with JPM, GS, MS, and others.  North of the border, Canadian pot company CGC has signed agreements with lenders to reduce its debt by $336 million in the next six months and reduced its interest rates in the process.  (CGC debt as of March 31 was $985 million.)  At the end of the day, Reuters reported that MLTX is exploring a sale.  However, no potential buyer was mentioned.  On Saturday, TSLA announced it completed the first “Cybertruck” after two years of delays.  (Mass production is set to begin at the end of the year.)  Also on Saturday afternoon, UAL announced it has reached a preliminary 4-year deal with pilots.  The deal includes a 40% pay increase over the four years.  On Sunday, ABOS announced that their Alzheimer’s drug has passed an early-stage safety test and will now advance to a larger trial.

In stock legal and regulatory news, on Friday, MSFT submitted a large proposal to the UK Competition and Markets Authority related to its ATVI acquisition.  The watchdog then extended its decision deadline from July 18 to August 29.  Elsewhere, DIS asked a judge to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Florida’s “State Oversight Board” (on behalf of Gov. DeSantis) which seeks to throw out deals made between DIS and the previous (pre- DeSantis takeover) board.  Late in the day Friday, CNBC reported crypto exchange Binance is planning to lay off between 1,500 and 3,000 employees due to the ongoing US Dept. of Justice investigation.  This comes a week after a rash of executives left the company.  CNBC reports sources tell it the probe is likely to end in a consent decree or settlement that will fundamentally change the company’s business model.  A Binance spokesman disputed the numbers but not the story.  Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands filed a $190 million claim (including $150 million in penalties) against JPM related to the bank’s facilitation of Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking.  (JPM paid $290 million in May to settle a similar claim made by survivors.)  Later, a US 5th Circuit Court of Appeals judge temporarily blocked a lower court injunction that had prohibited Biden Admin officials and agencies from contacting any social media company (META, GOOGL, Twitter, etc.) in relation to the posting of misleading or false information about matters of public health and welfare (general misinformation) especially related to vaccines.  Finally, late Friday a US Appeals Court denied the FTC appeal requesting an injunction against the closing of the MSFT purchase of ATVI.

In miscellaneous news, the widespread (and seemingly correct) belief that the Fed is delivering the goldilocks scenario hoped for from the beginning of rate hikes.  Even notorious Fed critic Mohamed El-Erian has changed his tune, telling Bloomberg “You cannot get in the way right now of the soft-landing narrative—that narrative is building momentum.”  He also said Friday, that at this point if the Fed tries to reach its 2% target too soon, it could end up “breaking something”.  (Indicating, he is now in the “slow and less frequent rate increases” camp.)  Elsewhere, the Actors Guild joined Writers last week to create the first simultaneous strikes in that industry in 60 years.  Media company executives like DIS CEO Iger the workers simply were not being realistic and that they were already paying actors for their likenesses.  (Extra and lower-tier actors are paid for a day’s work to be scanned and then the company owns their likeness forever for AI and CGI use in any future productions.  The entertainment company’s point is that TV is dying, streaming is not profitable on its own, and the fragmented nature of the media space now means that companies cannot afford to pay employees more.  On Sunday, former PARA head Diller said this strike could well lead to catastrophe in the sector for companies like NFLX, DIS, PARA, WBD, etc.  His point was that with so many options available to consumers, viewership (ad revenue) lost may be very hard to regain.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Shanghai (-0.87%), Shenzhen (-0.63%), and New Zealand (-0.62%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, India (+0.75%) and Thailand (+0.71%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are leaning to the red side (with the one notable exception of Belgium being up a huge 3.11%) at midday.  The CAC (-1.22%) leads the losses with the DAX (-0.45%) and FTSE (-0.28%) being more typical in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.24% open, the SPY is implying a -0.12% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.025% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are down to 3.787% and Oil (WTI) is off 1.17% to $74.50 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Monday are limited to NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index.  There are no major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell or after the close.  

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get June Industrial Production, June Retail Sales, May Business Inventories, May Retail Inventories, and API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks.  Then on Wednesday, Preliminary June Building Permits, Preliminary June Housing Starts, and EIA Crude Oil Inventories are reported.  Thursday, we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Mfg. Index, June Existing Home Sales, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet.  Then Friday, there is no major economics news scheduled.    

In terms of earnings reports, on Tuesday, we hear from BAC, BK, SCHW, LMT, MS, NVS, PNC, PLD, SYF, AIR, IBKR, JBHT, and WAL.  Then Wednesday, ALLY, ASML, BKR, CFG, ELV, FHN, GS, HAL, MTB, NDAQ, NTRS, USB, AA, COLB, CCI, DFS, EFX, IBM, KMI, LVS, LBRT, NFLX, STLD, TSLA, UAL, WTFC, and ZION report.  On Thursday, we hear from ABT, ALFVY, AAL, BX, DHI, EWBC, FITB, FCX, GPC, INFY, JNJ, KVUE, KEY, MAN, MMC, NEM, NOK, PM, POOL, SAP, SNA, SNV, TSM, TRV, TFC, WBS, COF, CSX, ISRG, KNX, PPG, and WRB.  Finally, on Friday, AXP, ALV, AN, CMA, HBAN, IPG, RF, ROP, and SLB report. 

In geopolitical news, Russia killed the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Deal just ahead of the previous agreement period expiration.  Global Wheat prices spiked 3.5% on that news. On Sunday, Putin had said that it the West unilaterally delivered all the promises made to get the original deal (helping promote and facilitate Russian grain and fertilizer sales) then Russia would immediately reconsider joining the deal.  The last ships covered by the deal left Odesa, Ukraine on Saturday.  Elsewhere, overnight China reported a Q2 miss on GDP but still printed a 6.3% annual growth rate.  The Q2 increase was +0.8% compared to the much bigger +2.2% GDP growth in Q1.  Beijing also said that unemployment in the 16-24 age group was at a record 21.3% in June, which is neither something China likes to admit nor is likely to accept without stimulus to try to head off unrest among that energetic age group.

With that background, it looks like markets are tepid or at least unsure in the premarket. Again, the DIA looks the weakest of the three major index ETFs and is sitting at the bottom of its early session candle. However, all three remain above their T-line and are, so far at least, just giving us a pullback within an uptrend. The only news this morning is that Fed NY Empire State Mfg. Index. That may cause minor volatility but I doubt it will create an earth-shattering change in markets. It seems more likely that traders will be waiting on the earnings from some more of the big boys this week for their next direction check. As far as extension goes, none of the three major index ETFs are stretched from the T-line and the T2122 indicator has fallen back into the top part of the mid-range. So, there is room to run (available buyers/sellers) in either direction.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets all gapped higher again on Thursday (up 0.42% in the SPY, up 0.21% in the DIA, and up 0.86% in the QQQ).  However, at that point, we saw a bit of a divergence.  The QQQ again led us higher with a fairly strong and steady rally all day until we saw a little profit-taking in the last 15 minutes.  Meanwhile, the SPY ground sideways in a tight range along its opening level until 11:30, at which point it followed the QQQ with a steady rally that was only broken by profit-taking the last 15 minutes of the day.  On the other hand, DIA lagged again, grinding sideways in a tight range after the open until just after 10:30 am.  Then DIA sold off to retest the opening gap and spend the rest of the day meandering back and forth inside that gap area.  This action gave us gap-up white-bodied candles (more body than wick) in both the QQQ and SPY.  For its part, the DIA gave us a black-bodied Doji-type Harami that never came close to challenging the Wednesday highs.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green again with Technology (+2.05%) way out front leading and Industrials (+0.27%) again lagging well behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.79%, DIA gained 0.08%, and QQQ gained 1.70%.  The VXX gained a half of a percent to 24.21 and T2122 climbed slightly and remains in the high end of the overbought territory at 95.99.  10-year bond yields plummeted again to 3.765% while Oil (WTI) popped another 2.05% to close at $77.30 per barrel.  So, again on Thursday, we saw the big tech names like NVDA (+4.74%) and GOOGL (+4.72%) stretch the market higher.  Meanwhile, the stodgy DIA was held up by MSFT (+1.62%) and CSCO (+1.56%) as the likes of WBA (-1.91%), TRV (-1.69%), and CVX (-1.34%) tried to drag the industrials lower.  This all took place on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news on Thursday, June PPI came in better than expected at +0.1% (compared to a forecast of +0.2% but well above May’s -0.4% reading).  The May PPI data was also revised lower.  In addition, the “Core PPI” fell 0.2% in June.  At the same time, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in below the anticipated level at 237k (versus a forecast of 250k and the prior week’s reading of 249k). Later in the day, The June Federal Budget Balance was reported as worse than expected at -$228.0 billion (compared to a forecast of -$175 billion but better than the May value of -$240 billion).  Overall, this was good economic data showing that inflation is slowly headed in the right direction, and yet the job market is holding up fine.  On the Fed front, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated her previous position that two more hikes will be needed this year.  She told a CNBC interview that she wants to start heading toward neutral as inflation gets closer to the 2% Fed goal.  However, she said, “It’s too early to say we have declared victory on inflation.”  Later, St. Louis Fed President (and Uber-hawk) Bullard announced he will be stepping down on August 14 in order to take a dean position at Purdue University.  This will be just under 3 weeks after the July Fed meeting and six weeks prior to the September meeting.  However, Bullard is not a voter this year.  Finally, last night Fed Governor (and voter) Waller said flat out what many Fed members have been implying and hinting at.  He said, “I see two more 25-basis-point hikes in the target (Fed Funds) range over the four remaining meetings this year as necessary to keep inflation moving toward our target.”

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In sundry economic news, Bloomberg reports that in addition to it now looking much more likely that the US will avoid the long-feared recession, the same may be true on a global level.  At least this is one possible conclusion to be drawn from labor markets.  Bloomberg reports that Global job cuts in June were down 25% from May (reaching the lowest level since December) and have been down four of the last five months.  At the same time, the UN and EU are scrambling to save the Black Sea grain deal (allowing Ukrainian grain exports) after Putin has threatened to kill the agreement.  The current deal expires Monday (7/17) and the UN is considering giving in to Russian blackmail by reconnecting a Russian bank to the SWIFT payment network for grain and fertilizer transactions.  In a related story, India (the world’s largest exporter of rice, shipping 41% of global supplies) is currently considering a export ban on most varieties rice.  Bloomberg reports this is due to rising Indian domestic rice prices amidst a disruptive “El Nino” weather pattern.  Finally, after the close, the Fed announced that Bank borrowing from the Fed declined again (very slightly this time) for the week ending July 12.  Total Fed lending from its two backstop programs was $105 billion, down $320 million from the prior week.

In stock news, MITT made a stock-and-cash offer for WMC on Thursday.  The offer will disrupt the all-stock bid made on June 28 by Terra Property Trust.  (The MITT offer is equal to $9.88 per share, which was a 12% premium at the time of the offer and more than a 9% premium on the WMC closing price Thursday).  In other deal news, XOM announced that it has agreed to buy DEN for $4.9 billion in an effort to accelerate the XOM carbon dioxide sequestration (pumping CO2 into wells) program.  Elsewhere, GS announced it has sold off $1 billion in personal loans made by its consumer unit Marcus.  No details were provided, but GS booked $470 million in losses on those loans in Q1.   At the same time, GOOGL announced it is rolling out its “Bard” AI Chatbot to Europe and Brazil.  This news eased market fears over international regulatory hurdles and GOOGL stock soared 4.72% on the day.  In other news, Kelly Blue Book announced that registrations of TSLA Model Y vehicles (TSLA’s least expensive model) surged 103% between January and May.  Meanwhile, NKLA shares skyrocketed 61% on Thursday after the company announced it had entered a strategic partnership with hydrogen producer Bayotech, which has agreed to buy 50 of the NKLA truck produced in the next 5 years.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the NRLB announced Thursday that it received a complaint against AMZN for refusing to bargain with the union elected by workers at the e-commerce giant’s Staten Island, NY distribution center.  (AMZN challenged the election but lost the appeal to the NRLB in January.  However, AMZN spokesmen said this complaint was nothing new and the company will not recognize the union, at least until it has exhausted all legal challenges to the union’s election.)  Elsewhere, a Ninth Circuit Appeals Court opened a docket on the FTC appeal of the lower court ruling against providing an injunction preventing the closing of the MSFT acquisition of ATVI.  No date has yet been set for the hearing of the case.  At mid-morning, a US District Judge ruled blockchain company Ripple Labs did not violate SEC law by selling tokens on public exchanges.  Markets immediately saw this as a huge victory for cryptocurrency (against government regulation of the same). COIN shot 30% higher (ending the day up 24.49%) while MSTR spiked 13% (and ended up 11.69%).  Later, TM and the NHTSA announced that the Japanese car company has recalled 118k 2023 cars (110k in the US) due to a wiring defect in the driver-side airbag.  By mid-afternoon, the EPA announced it has fined CPE $1.3 million for excess emissions (from tanks, flares, and other equipment) at the company’s West Texas Permian Basin operations.  At the end of the market session, Reuters reported that the FTC has opened an investigation into MSFT-backed OpenAI over claims the AI company is putting consumer personal data and reputations at risk through its AI operations.  This is the first potential regulation of artificial intelligence, even if only in terms of potential fines for violating consumer privacy.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side.  Only Shenzhen (-0.14%) and Japan (-0.09%) were in the read.  Meanwhile, Thailand (+1.60%), South Korea (+1.43%), and Taiwan (+1.30%) led the rest of the region higher.  In Europe, the bourses are mixed at midday with six exchanges in some shade of red and nine in the green to some degree.  The CAC (+0.26%), DAX (-0.22%), and FTSE (+0.25%) are typical and lead the way in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a mixed start near the flat line to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.42% open, the SPY is implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.04% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are bouncing back (early), up to 3.787% and Oil (WTI) is just on the red side of flat at $76.79 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include June Import Price Index and June Export Price Index (both at 8:30 am), Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Expectations (both at 10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for before the opening bell include BLK, C, ERIC, JPM, STT, UNH, and WFC.  There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.    

So far this morning, JPM, WFC, BLK, and UNH all reported beats to both the revenue and earnings lines.  These were all “good beats” showing very strong quarter-on-quarter growth in revenue and earnings with the exception of BLK beating while having a 1.4% decline in revenue quarter-on-quarter.  Meanwhile, ERIC missed slightly on revenue at the same time they beat on earnings.  However, that was a “bad beat” on earnings since earnings were down 50% quarter-on-quarter for ERIC.  On the other hand, STT missed significantly on revenue while beating significantly on earnings and both of the numbers reported were quarter-on-quarter increases from Q1.     

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported that US Small Businesses borrowing has not fallen off much.  In other words, the feared credit crunch does not appear to have materialized (at least yet) despite increasing rates and dire commentator predictions.  According to the National Federation of Independent Business, the average interest rate paid by small firms in June was 9.2% (up 1.4% from May).  However, the lending continues as 28% of surveyed small businesses said they regularly borrowed in June, roughly in line with May but far below the three-year high the survey reported in April.  Meanwhile, part of the strong rally in Oil (and other commodities) is the continuing crash of the US Dollar against major currencies.  The dollar sold off steadily all-day Thursday against the Euro, British Pound, Aussie Dollar, and even Canadian Dollar.  Elsewhere, the Republican focus on social culture wars continues as 13 GOP AGs warned the 100 largest US companies that they will sue those companies over any diversity policies those companies have in place.  The letter sent to the 100 singled out AAPL, GOOGL, MSF, and UBER specifically, but threatened all 100.  Finally, the WHO warned that aspartame (most widely-used artificial sweetener) may cause cancer in high doses.  However, the agency also said the topic needed more research and the sweetener should be safe in normal amounts.  This lessened the blow on companies like KO and PEP which use it in many products.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are looking to close the week out strong. The DIA candle in particular is large and white after starting the early session down from Thursday’s close. However, note that the DIA is also right at a resistance level while the other two major index ETFs have broken through theirs earlier in the week. SPY is looking to gap up but is more tentative and for its part QQQ is looking to open higher but is a very indecisive premarket candle. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema) and the bias remains bullish across the market. Regardless, after the open settles out, do not be surprised to see some profit-taking after a strong week in all three major indices. Also, don’t forget that its Friday. So, pay yourself, move your stops, hedge, or do whatever you need to do to prepare for the weekend. All that said, do not be surprised if we drift while we wait. As far as extension goes, the SPY and QQQ are starting to get a bit stretched from the T-line. DIA remains fine in that regard. However, again, the T2122 indicator remains deep into that overbought territory. The old saying stands: “The market can remain overbought longer than we can stay solvent being right too early.” So, once again, if either the bulls or the bears did find the energy to run today, there is a slack available…there is just more slack available to the Bears.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

On Wednesday, better-than-expected CPI numbers led to a gap higher (up 0.88% in the SPY, up 0.66% in the DIA, and up 1.15% in the QQQ).  At this point, the SPY and QQQ started a sideways meander centered on that opening level.  DIA started to grind sideways in a very tight range, which was interrupted by a sharp 45-minute selloff that started at about 11:25 am before continuing sideways inside the opening gap.  All three of the major index ETFs continued that sideways move right into the close.  This action gave us gap-up, indecisive candles, above the T-line (8ema) in all three.  The SPY and QQQ printed Dojis, with the SPY breaking out of June/July highs and QQQ closing right at its breakout level.  Meanwhile, the DIA printed a black-bodied Spinning Top that could be seen as failing the June high retest.

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Basic Materials (+1.94%) way out front leading and Industrials (+0.07%) lagging well behind the other sectors.  At the same time, SPY gained 0.80%, DIA gained 0.27%, and QQQ gained 1.26%.  The VXX fell 5.50% to 24.07 and T2122 pulled back slightly but remains at the high end of the overbought territory at 95.60.  10-year bond yields plummeted to 3.861% while Oil (WTI) popped up 1.42% to close at $75.89 per barrel.  So, Wednesday saw a strong gap-up on the lower-than-expected CPI data.  However, after that, markets simply drifted sideways for the rest of the day.  This took place on above-average volume in the DIA and QQQ with slightly less-than-average volume in the SPY.

The major economic news on Wednesday started with the June month-on-month CPI, which came in below expectations at +0.2% (compared to a forecast of +0.3% but above the May reading of +0.1%).  At the same time, June year-on-year CPI was also below anticipated at +3.0% (versus a forecast of +3.1% and well below the May value of +4.0%).  Later, EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a much larger build that projected at +5.946-million-barrels (compared to a +0.483-million-barrel forecast and the prior week’s drawdown of 1.508-million-barrels).  It may have nothing to do with what the Fed does in two weeks.  However, that data cannot credibly be spun as not showing progress on inflation.  On the Fed speaker front, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari published an essay more related to supervision than rates.  He said that Central banks (in general) need to bring inflation back down and create anchored (stable) inflation expectations…adding that interest rates may need to raise further.  The rest of his essay was dedicated to ensuring the banking sector is strong enough to handle the potential additional increase in rates.  Kashkari said, “One way supervisors could ensure banks are prepared is to run new high-inflation stress tests to identify at-risk banks and size individual capital shortfalls.”  Elsewhere, Richmond Fed President Barkin sounded a hawkish note, saying “No matter how you cut it, inflation has been too high.”  Barking added that he agreed that overall demand was beginning to slow, but he wants to be “convinced” by incoming data that it will translate into lower inflation.

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In stock news, Reuters reported midday that NVDA is in talks to become the “anchor investor” in an IPO of Arm.  (Arm is a semiconductor designer whose architecture competes with the x86 platform used by INTC and AMD.  The ARM architecture is mostly used in cloud servers and high-end computing servers like those required for AI applications.) Elsewhere, LCID reported that its Q2 production dropped from Q1 while deliveries stayed flat. The LCID stock fell almost 12% on that news. Later, DPZ announced they have reached a deal allowing customers to buy their pizzas via the UBER and Postmates apps.  (DPZ shot 11.10% higher on that news.)  At the same time, Reuters reported that first-day sales of the AMZN Pride Day 6% (to $6.4 billion) from a year ago on heavy discounting according to Adobe Analytics.  Meanwhile, DIS announced after the close that it has extended the contract of CEO Bob Iger for two more years, through the end of 2026.   Also after the close, VSAT announced that there was a problem with the deployment of its “ViaSat-3 Americas” satellite that may well affect the performance of the satellite.  VSAT stock fell 20% in post-market trading on this news.

In stock legal and regulatory news, the EU antitrust watchdog granted conditional approval for AVGO’s $61 billion acquisition of VMW. The condition was altering the deal to help rival MRVL by ensuring interoperability of future products.  However, the UK competition agency and US FTC are also still reviewing the deal. Elsewhere, TSLA announced the US federal tax credits (now $7,500) for its Model 3 cars “are likely to be reduced on Dec. 31.” It provided no additional information and this could be just a marketing ploy.  Still, the US government is implementing more stringent battery rules in the hope of reducing both carbon emissions and dependence on China.  Meanwhile, it was made public Wednesday that META will appeal EU antitrust charges related to its classified advertisements.  (The appeal was announced in a closed-door meeting Friday, but made public yesterday.)  At the same time, ILMN was hit with a record $476 million fine by the EU for closing its takeover of test maker Grail before getting WU antitrust approval.  In leak news, Reuters reported that the NHTSA is close to reaching a decision on whether or not to allow GM to deploy 2,500 self-driving Cruise vehicles.  (Cruise vehicles are essentially Chevy Bolts without a steering wheel, gas, or brake pedals.)  Finally, on Wednesday evening the FTC filed an appeal to the ruling that denied the agency’s request for an injunction against the MSFT acquisition of ATVI.

After the close, MLKN reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, both numbers were down (13% on revenue and 29% on earnings) from the same quarter of 2022. So far this morning, PEP, DAL, and WIT have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  (Interestingly, these were not beats against lowered expectations and showed both revenue and earnings growth quarter-on-quarter.  In fact, it was a record amount of earnings for DAL.)  Meanwhile, CAG and FAST both missed on revenue while beating on the earnings line.  (For FAST, even though the Revenue was a miss, both numbers were increases quarter-on-quarter from the previous report.  However, the CAG miss on revenue actually showed Qtr.-on-Qtr. growth but the beat on earnings actually was a decline Qtr.-on-Qtr.)  It should also be noted that PEP raised its forward guidance while CAG lowered its guidance.  Note that PGR and CTAS report closer to the opening bell. 

Overnight, Asian markets were nearly green across the board.  Only Malaysia (-0.13%) showed any red while Hong Kong (+2.60%), Singapore (+1.99%), and Shenzhen (+1.61%) led the region in a broad and strong rally.  Meanwhile, in Europe, the bourses are mostly green at midday with only three spots of red among the 15 exchanges.  The CAC (+0.78%), DAX (+0.57%), and FTSE (+0.37%) are leading the continent higher in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward another move higher.  The lagging DIA implies at +0.15% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.66% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields continue to fall and are at 3.826% while Oil (WTI) is up three-tenths of a percent to $75.97 per barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday include June PPI and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), June Federal Budget Balance (2 pm), and Fed Balance Sheet (4:30 pm).  We also have another Fed speaker (Waller at 6:45 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled include CTAS, CAG, DAL, FAST, PEP, PGR, and WIT all before the opening bell.  There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.      

In economic news later this week, on Friday, June Import Price Index, June Export Price Index, Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Expectations are reported.      

In terms of earnings reports, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, ERIC, JPM, STT, UNH, and WFC.      

In miscellaneous news, Reuters reported that the one-month moving average of open interest in VIX calls (in other words, the average of the number of existing options bets that the market will fall, driving the VIX up) was at a record high of almost 13.85 million at the end of June.  It fell to 13.71 on Wednesday afternoon.  The interesting thing is that this moving average was at a 3-year low in mid-June before skyrocketing by the end of the month as traders bet the Bulls could not keep running.  However, so far this month the Bulls have defied that logic.  Elsewhere, ocean temperatures (surface) off Florida reached nearly 97 degrees in some areas Monday according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration buoy data.  This is the highest temperature on record and poses a significant threat to the health of coral reefs, which in turn pose a risk to fishing grounds.  NOAA said that 70% of Florida’s coral reefs have already been bleached or have been eroded (i.e. have been lost) due to climate change impacts. No specific tickers impacted are available yet. Finally, in dollar news, after the CPI data Wednesday, the US Dollar plunged to a 15-month low.  This indicates that money managers now truly believe US interest rates are at or very near a peak.  (The dollar tends to be correlated with US interest rates.) For the record, the dollar is strongly down again Thursday against the Euro, British Pound, and Aussie Dollar.

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to gap up into fresh air again in the SPY and QQQ. DIA is also positive but is only giving a Bullish Harami so far in the premarket session. It should be noted that all three of the major index ETFs are printing indecisive candles in this early session as traders wait on PPI and the rest of the new round of earnings. Obviously, all three remain above their T-line (8ema) with the June PPI data still an hour from being published. So, the bias is still bullish across the market. It looks like the Bulls are trying to add to the week’s nice gains so far. There may be some premarket volatility (and likely volatility near the open) from the PPI data but truthfully that is usually a lot less than the CPI number that always precedes it by a day. Either way, after the open settles out, eyes will turn toward the financials as the big boys report Friday. All that said, do not be surprised if we drift while we wait. Overall, the SPY and QQQ have broken out of recent highs and have some room to run before the next potential resistance level. However, the DIA has yet to get through and is just below the double-top it failed yesterday. As far as extension goes, only the QQQ (in premarket) is starting to get a bit stretched from its T-line. However, again, the T2122 indicator remains deep into that overbought territory. The old saying stands: “The market can remain overbought longer than we can stay solvent being right too early.” So, once again, if either the bulls or the bears did find the energy to run today, there is a slack available, just more of it available to the Bears.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened modestly higher on Tuesday (up 0.19% in the SPY, up 0.36% in the DIA, and up 0.13% in the QQQ).  At that point, both the SPY and QQQ recrossed that opening gap, reaching the lows of the day not long after 10 am.  DIA faded too, but only down into the middle of its opening gap again by shortly after 10 am.  Then Bulls stepped in to lead a rally that took all three major index ETFs to the highs of the day at about noon.  From there DIA ground sideways in a tight range, SPY meandered back and forth between the open and the highs, and QQQ meandered sideways mostly between the prior close and the highs until 3:45 pm.  However, a rally the last minutes of the day took us out very near the highs in all three of those major index ETFs.  This action gave us white-bodied candles with small upper wicks and slightly larger lower wicks.  All three also crossed back up above their T-line (8ema).

On the day, all 10 sectors were in the green with Energy (+1.87%) way out front leading and Healthcare (+0.02%) lagging behind the other sectors. At the same time, SPY gained 0.64%, DIA gained 0.89%, and QQQ gained 0.49%.  The VXX fell three-quarters of a percent to 25.47 and T2122 climbed into the high end of the overbought territory at 96.78.  10-year bond yields fell to 3.976% while Oil (WTI) popped up 2.48% to close at $74.80 per barrel.  So, Tuesday was a Bullish day within a Bullish Pennant formation in the SPY and QQQ as well as within more of a Wedge pattern in the DIA.  This all took place on less-than-average volume in all three major index ETFs.

The major economic news on Tuesday was limited to the energy sector.  The EIA Short-term Energy Outlook now calls for US electric consumption to ease from the 2022 record based on forecasts of slower economic growth and milder weather.  The same report projects the oil market will remain tight, citing the recently announced Saudi and Russian production cuts as well as expected increasing demand in China as well as developing countries.  The EIA also cut its forecast for US oil production by 50,000 barrels per day while still rising to 12.56 million barrels per day.  Elsewhere, after the close, the API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks report showed an unexpected increase of 3.026-million-barrels (compared to a forecasted increase of 0.200-million-barrels and the 4.382-million-barrel inventory drawdown one week prior).  In Fed speak news, oddly enough, I was unable to find a report of St. Louis Fed President Bullard’s remarks. However, New York Fed President Williams told the Financial Times Tuesday exactly what most of the other Fed members have been saying…that rate hikes are likely not done.  Williams also said, “It’s still clearly a very strong labor market with very good jobs growth,” …  “I don’t have a recession in my forecast. (However,) I have pretty slow growth (in my projections).”   Finally, Williams said, “We are not getting the full effects of the restrictive policy that we put in place yet … those are still ahead of us, although we have gotten some of the effects already in certain interest-rate-sensitive sectors.”

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In stock news, CRM announced it will be raising the price of some of its cloud-based products by an average of 9% in August.  (This was the company’s first price increase in seven years and comes even after its recent report showed blowout revenue growth from the cloud-based business.)  Later, BA announced it delivered 60 passenger jets in June, raising the first-half total to 266, up 23% over the first half of 2022.  Elsewhere, the Financial Times reported sourced tell it that the EU is poised to approve the AVGO purchase of VMW as soon as Wednesday.  (VMW was up over 5% on the news.)  At midday, Reuters reported AXAHY (French insurance giant AXA) is actively discussing strategic options for its $2 billion reinsurance business, in what was termed “a bid to cut exposure to natural disasters in light of global warming effects.”  (In May, AIG made the same move, agreeing to sell its reinsurance arm for $3 billion for just 1.4 times book value.)  Meanwhile, Reuters also reported that AMZN is offering deeper discounts than in past years as part of its “Prime Day” 2-day sale.  This included 60% discounts on GPS clothing, 50% off some SONY products, and 40% off PTON bikes.  After the close, Axios reported that META is planning to bring “branded content” to its new Instagram Threads service.  This is a bid to make the platform easier for influencer and advertiser-paid partnerships.  Also after the close, Reuters reported that COTY is in talks with Kim Kardashian to sell back a minority stake in her fragrance and cosmetics brand.  At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that DIS is exploring options to sell its Indian joint venture “Star India.”

In stock legal and regulatory news, the NHTSA announced Tuesday it is investigating F related to 346,000 Ford Escape SUVs built in 2020-2021 due to doors opening while the cars are driving.  Later, BAC agreed to pay a $250 million settlement (in fines and compensation) related to the same systematic practice WFC faced a year or two back.  BAC had been opening consumer accounts without authorization, systematically did not pay account-opening bonuses promised, and double-charged fees for insufficient funds.  Elsewhere, AMZN launched the first challenge to the EU Digital Services Act, disputing whether it should be included in the group of companies subjected to online content rules.  At the same time, a US federal judge threw out the FTC’s request for an injunction, telling MSFT it can proceed with the acquisition of ATVI.  (The FTC has until Friday to appeal before MSFT is free to continue.)  In addition, the UK Competition and Markets Authority (which previously blocked the deal) announced it was ready to consider MSFT proposals to resolve antitrust concerns.  (ATVI stock shot up 10% on the good news.)  Meanwhile, Canada’s corporate ethics watchdog announced Tuesday that it has launched an investigation into NKE related to using Uyghur labor in China as part of its operations and supply chain.  At the same time, a US federal appeals court has revived a lawsuit against RCL related to the death of a toddler after a grandfather dropped the child who then fell through an open cruise ship window in the children’s play area of a cruise ship.

In market-related news, NASDAQ announced that a “special rebalance” of the QQQ (NASDAQ 100) will take place later this month.  The idea behind the rebalance is to reduce the concentration of weighting in the top names.  This comes after a blistering rally this year has resulted in AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA alone accounting for 43.8% of the index weight.  Following the rebalance, those five will “only” account for 38.5% of the QQQ.  The exact changes will be announced Friday and will take effect on Monday, July 24.  Analysts expect SBUX, MDLZ, BKNG, GILD, ISRG, ADI, and ADP to see their index weights increase.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed with Shenzhen (-0.99%) and Japan (-0.81%) leading the losses while Hong Kong (+1.08%) and South Korea (+0.48%) paced the gains.  However, in Europe, we see green across the board at midday.  The CAC (+0.66%), DAX (+0.81%), and FTSE (+1.14%) lead broad gains across the region in early afternoon trade.  In the US, as of 7:30 am, Futures are pointing toward a modest green start to the day (albeit before the CPI report).  The DIA implies a +0.14% open, the SPY is implying a +0.21% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.23% open at this hour.  At the same time, 10-year bond yields are falling again to 3.956%, and Oil (WTI) is just on the green side of flat at $74.90/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include the June CPI (8:30 am), EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), WASDE Ag report (noon), and Fed Beige Book (2 pm).  There are also two more Fed Speakers scheduled (Kashkari at 9:45 am and Mester at 4 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for Wednesday are limited to MLKN after the close.  (There are no reports scheduled before the opening bell.)        

In economic news later this week, on Thursday, we get June PPI, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, June Federal Budget Balance, and Fed Balance Sheet.  Finally, Friday June Import Price Index, June Export Price Index, Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Preliminary July Michigan Consumer Expectations.        

In terms of earnings reports, on Thursday, CTAS, CAG, DAL, FAST, PEP, PGR, and WIT report.  Finally, on Friday, we hear from BLK, C, ERIC, JPM, STT, UNH, and WFC.       

In miscellaneous news, the founder of the “meme stock” sensation lost his lawsuit against Reddit for allegedly wrongly banning him from moderating the community (subReddit) he created and usurping his “WallStreetBets” trademark.  In her decision, the US District Judge ruled that federal law (section 230) gives websites broad immunity for publishing the outside content of others and therefore he lacked standing to sue.  Elsewhere, Canadian regulators followed the Fed’s lead, proposing that lenders and mortgage insurance providers be required to hold more capital in order to better deal with home loan risks as rates increase.  (The rules are open to public comment until September 1.)   At the same time, CNBC reported that (according to TransUnion) the US average credit card balance is $5,733 per person with 35% of people saying their balance is near its highest level ever, while 43% say their balance is actually at the lowest level ever.  At the same time, Bankrate reports that the average US credit card interest rate is now 20.55%.” 

With that background, it looks like the Bulls are trying to follow through on their Tuesday gains. All three major index ETFs are near their premarket highs again today and in positive territory relative to the close yesterday. All three remain above their T-line (8ema) with the June CPI data still an hour from being published. So, the bias is still bullish across the market. It looks like the Bulls are trying to add to the week’s gains. However, we should see some premarket volatility (and likely volatility near the open) on that CPI data. After that settles out, do not be surprised if we drift toward the first earnings reports, which start Thursday with the big banks starting again on Friday. Overall, the SPY is near a retest of a double-top with DIA not too far below a retest of a high as well. Meanwhile, QQQ has a little more ground to cover before it reaches its next test. As far as extension goes, none of the three major index ETFs is stretched from its T-line…but…the T2122 indicator is deep into the overbought territory. Of course, the old saying stands: “The market can remain overbought longer than we can stay solvent being right too early.” So, once again, if either the bulls or the bears did find the energy to run today, there is a slack available, just more of it available to the Bears.

As always, be deliberate and disciplined…but don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, admit you were wrong and take that loss before it gets out of hand. And when the price does move in your direction, always move your stops in your favor and take a little profit off the table. You have to keep the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe” in mind. In a winning situation, it is NOT HOUSE MONEY you’re betting, it’s YOUR MONEY! There is absolutely no reason to keep raising your bet (risk) size just because you’ve had a win. Finally, remember that trading is not a hobby. It’s a job. The money is real and so is the risk. So, treat it that way. Do the work and follow the process. Stick to your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Do the work!

See you in the trading room.

Ed

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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