Despite the GDP showing a technical recession is underway, markets opened with very minimal gaps (in both directions, QQQ down and large-caps up) on Thursday.  All 3 major indices then sold off 1% or more over the first hour.  However, at 10:30 am, they all reversed and rallied strongly until noon, more than making up for the selloff.  After an hour of rest, the rally resumed, reaching the highs of the day late in the session and closing near the highs.  This is leaving us with large white candles with significant lower wicks (and small upper wicks) in all 3 major indices. 

All 10 sectors were green (with energy down only 0.05% with 30 minutes left in the day.  67% of stocks are now above their 40sma and 27% are above their 200sma. With that said, volume remains below average. We are also looking very overextended in all 3 major indices in relation to the T-line (8ema).  On the day, SPY gained 1.25%, DIA gained 1.00%, and QQQ gained 0.98%.  The VXX fell 2.3% to 20.82 and T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 96.31.  10-year bonds fell to 2.672% and Oil (WTI) was just on the downside of flat for the day at $97.18/barrel.

In economic news, regardless of what Fed Chair Powell, Treasury Sec. Yellen, and the White House said just the day before, GDP data Thursday morning showed we are, at least technically, in a recession.  The Q2 GDP came in at -0.9%, far below the consensus estimate of +0.5%.  However, that was slightly better than Q1’s -1.6% growth number.  In the same vein, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in slightly higher than expected at 256k (versus 253k forecast).  However, this too was better than the previous week’s 261k number.  So, the time series shows improvements, but we’re still worst off on both measures than we thought we should be.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In business news, Thursday was the US House’s turn to pass the “Chips and Science” bill (again in a bipartisan vote) and the “law to be” is now headed for President Biden’s signature. The bill provides $52 billion in subsidies along with another $24 billion in tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing in the US.  The House is expected to pass the revised bill later this week.  The bill disproportionately benefits INTC, TXN, and MU. (INTC alone is expected to get $30 billion in subsidies.)  However, chip designers like AMD, QCOM, and NVDA (regardless of the uproar over insider trading claiming they will benefit) are left out in the cold.  This is because the latter group does not make chips.  Instead, they contract out the production to TSM and to a lesser extent Global Foundries.

In energy news, as expected, we’ve seen record profits (if for some reason, not always revenue) across the major oil producers so far this quarter.  However, a dispute is now in place as the US has officially complained about Mexico’s energy policy of tightening control over its oil and electricity markets.  US energy companies see the actions to strengthen the Mexican state-run energy companies at the cost of private investors as a violation of the USMCA (formerly NAFTA) agreement.  (And the Biden Administration has taken up the cause on behalf of those companies.)  This may lead to a trade dispute, as Mexico is so far being defiant and asserting its national sovereignty.  Elsewhere, Europe is scrambling to cut natural gas use, get coal-fired power plants back online, and today France’s President met with Saudi Crown Prince MBS in another bid to get OPEC+ to increase production quotas at their meeting next week.  Examples of European gas-saving measures include the German city of Hanover switching off lighting at public fountains, the illuminations of buildings, cutting off hot water in public buildings, mandating 33% higher room temperatures (daycare excluded), and putting motion-detecting lighting in many public conveniences/buildings. 

After the close, AAPL, LHX, EIX, EMN, CE, KLAC, AJG, TFII, CC, CLR, TBBK, TXRH, ATR, BIO, SKYW, FSLR, DXCM, UTCC, DECK, AUY, MERC, MTD, MTX, INT, and SGEN all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, HIG, MHK, OLN, EW, and BZH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AMZN, X, VFC, ERIE, and ULCC beat on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, INTC, AVTR, DLR, and ROKU missed on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (-2.26%) was an outlier while Shenzhen (-1.30%), Shanghai (-0.89%), and Singapore (-0.28%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Thailand (+1.50%), New Zealand (+1.45%), and India (+1.35%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are almost green across the board at mid-day.  Portugal (-0.51%) is the only red while the FTSE (+0.58%), DAX (+1.28%), and CAC (+1.42%) lead the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As od 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green, if divergent, start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.21% open, the SPY is implying a +0.66% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.02% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.701% and Oil (WTI) is back up to $98.60/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday include June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, and June Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABBV, AB, AON, ARCB, AZN, BLMN, BAH, CRI, CBOE, CHTR, CVX, CHD, CNHI, CL, ENB, XOM, IMO, ITCB, LYB, MGA, NWL, NMRK, NVT, PSX, PG, GWW, and WY before the open.  There are no major earnings scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning, CVX, BNPQY, CHTR, LYB, SMFG, AZN, TAK, MFG, CL, AFLYY, WY, BAH, CHT, BLMN, AB, ARCB, and NVT all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, XOM, PSX, KMTUY, AON, NWL, and CHD all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, PG, MGA, FMS, and ES all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  So far this morning, there are no reports that missed on both revenue and earnings.

What is turning out to be another strong quarter of earnings (despite the lowering of forward guidance) has lifted market spirits. Today, it will be AMZN, AAPL (both from last night), CVX, and XOM that lead markets higher early. There is more economic data, but of late, Mr. Market doesn’t seem to care about economic data. With that said, expect more volatility as intraday reversals are the norm in recent weeks. We do have an uptrend in progress in all 3 major indices, but resistance is not too far overhead and we have a weekend news cycle starting after the close. Both of those urge caution on the Friday trader’s part. The only thing we know for sure is that low volumes for weeks indicate that the big money and John Q Public are not ready to believe the bottom is in just yet.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CLOV, VLO, V, GD, AAPL, NVDA, GE, NFLX, PYPL, CSCO, WMT, CLF. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks all gapped higher, but diverged in doing so yesterday with the traders seeming to bet that the Fed announcement would be positive for the market.  The DIA gapped up four-tenths of a percent, the SPY gapped up nine-tenths of a percent, and the QQQ gapped up 1.6% higher.  After a little follow-through, the first 30 minutes all 3 major indices traded flat (even through the Fed rate announcement) until after Fed Chair Presser started.  However, the move at 2:40 pm was meteoric to the upside.  We then saw the rally continue more-or-less into the close.  This left us with a Bull Kicker in the QQQ and SPY, and just a gap-up strong white candle in the DIA. 

Almost 62% of stocks are now above their 40sma and 23.54% of them are above their 200sma.  So, all 3 major indices are also back above their T-lines (8 ema). The volume on the day was better than Tuesday, but still well below an average that continues to decline.  All 10 sectors were green, with Technology far and away the big winner, up 4.37%.  On the day, SPY gained 2.60%, DIA gained 1.41%, and QQQ gained 4.23%.  The VXX fell 1.7% to 21.31 and T2122 climbed high into the overbought territory at 97.16.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.776% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.3% to $98.12 (apparently on answers from Chair Powell that we are not in a recession).

As expected, the Fed (in a unanimous vote) raised rates 0.75%, which takes the rate to 2.25-2.50% on Wednesday.  The hike itself was fully priced-in and markets had very little reaction on the hike news alone.  However, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference set off a massive afternoon rally.  In his presser, Powell said he did not think the US was in a recession yet (we’ll find out later this morning). He also said it would be appropriate at some point for the Fed to slow increases and assess how the overall policy was impacting both inflation and the economy.  This left open the possibility for a lesser increase in Sept. which is what I think may have led to the presser-timed rally.  He went on to point out the job growth remains robust and unemployment remains low.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In business news, the US Senate passed the “Chips and Science” bill in a bipartisan vote.  This bill provides $52 billion in subsidies along with another $24 billion in tax credits for semiconductor manufacturing in the US.  The House is expected to pass the revised bill later this week.  The bill disproportionately benefits INTC, TXN, and MU. (INTC alone is expected to get $30 billion in subsidies.)  However, chip designers like AMD, QCOM, and NVDA (regardless of the uproar over insider trading claiming they will benefit) are left out in the cold.  This is because the latter group does not make chips.  Instead, they contract out the production to TSM and to a lesser extent Global Foundries.

In stock news, after the close, SAVE canceled its negotiations with potential buyer ULCC after months of negotiations.  SAVE’s talks with JBLU (another potential buyer) continue.  (Then overnight JBLU agreed to buy SAVE for $3.8 billion.) However, any potential purchase may face monopoly scrutiny related to the Northeast corridor routes.  Elsewhere, BBY lowered its forward guidance and is now expecting a drop of 13% in sales in Q3 and an 11% drop for the year.  CS also announced they have replaced their CEO.

After the close, F, QCOM, MOH, CHRW, MUSA, LRCX, URI, FBHS, NCR, NOV, MTH, CSL, HOLX, GFL, CCS, ASGN, PLXS, MKSI, FIX, MYRG, CMPR, ACHC, AVB, QGEN, ETSY, GGG, TDOC, INVH, SLM, SNBR, MAA, FRWD, TYL, VICI, HP, and EQT all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, FLEX, WFG, RJF, FTI, OMF, KGC, and OII all beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, CTSH, RE, ACGL, EQIX, NOW, AWK, AEM, TROX, FLS, ICLR, ESI, COLM, AMED, CHE, and CHDN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, META, ORLY, CYH, CINF, SSNC, MEOH, ALGN, LUNMF, CAKE, AR, JBT, and PTC all missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board.  Only Hong Kong (-0.23%) and Taiwan (-0.20%) showed any red.  Meanwhile, New Zealand (+1.74%), India (+1.73%), and Thailand (+1.50%) led the region higher.  In Europe, stocks are showing a similar pattern at mid-day.  It is the biggest exchanges that lag the rally with the FTSE (-0.15%), DAX (+0.01%), and CAC (+0.13%) following the rest of the continent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.14% open, the SPY is implying a -0.22% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.56% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 2.785% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 2% to $99.24/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday are limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Initial jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  Treasury Sec. Yellen also speaks at 8:30 am.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AOS, AGCO, ALLE, MO, AMT, BUD, HOUS, MT, ARCH, ARES, ABG, BAX, BFH, BC, CP, CRS, CARR, CVE, CMS, CNX, CMCSA, DTE, EXP, EME, EEFT, FAF, FCNCA, FCFS, FMX, FTS, FTV, BEN, FCN, GTX, GOL, GVA, HOG, HSY, HTZ, HON, IP, JHG, KDP, KEX, LH, LAZ, LII, LECO, LIN, LKQ, MDC, MMP, HZO, MLM, MAS, MA, MRK, NOC, ORI, OSK, OSTK, PATK, PBF, BTU, PFE, PCG, BPOP, POR, RS, RCL, SNY, SNDR, SHEL, SIRI, SAH, SO, LUV, SWK, STM, TROW, TRP, TFX, TXT, TMO, TKR, TNL, VLO, VSTO, VC, WST, WEX, WTW, and XEL before the open.  Then after the close, AMZN, AAPL, ATR, AJG, AVTR, BZH, BIO, CE, CC, CLR, DECK, DXCM, DLR, EMN, EIX, EW, ERIE, FSLR, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LHX, LBTYA, MTD, MTX, MHK, OLN, ROKU, SKYW, TXRH, TFII, UCTT, X, VALE, VFC, INT, and AUY report.

So far this morning, CMCSA, VLO, PFE, MRK, SNY, TMO, HON, CVE, LIN, MO, PBF, IP, CARR, SO, ASX, LUV, LH, RS, TXT, KDP, XEL, STM, ABG, AMT, HSY, BC, MDC, ARES, TKR, AOS, VSTO, ALLE, WST, EEFT, VC, KEX, VIRT, POR, EXP, WEX, VLY, TRTN, HEES, KIM, CBZ, and STNG all beat on both the top and bottom lines.  At the same time, MT, BUD, NOC, LKQ, FAF, HOG, LAZ, TNL, TFX, HZO, FCFS, SHEL, and WTW all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, DTE, SIRI, FTS, and ARCH beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, SWK, SAH, DTE, BAX, MAS, OSK, TROW, GVA, GTX, OSTK, and JHG all missed on both the top and bottom lines.

In economic news coming later this week, Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

As usual on Fed rate hikes, the market seems to have rethought the late afternoon rally from yesterday and is looking to open tepidly bearish…pending the GDP news, of course. Truthfully, the GDP print (and whether we are actually already in a recession) will drive trading today…especially if it says we are. Also, don’t discount the talking heads rehashing and reparsing every word Powell said yesterday. That may cause fluctuations across the market as every Tom, Dick, and Harry tells us what Powell “was really saying or implying.” Beyond that, we now have higher lows and higher highs in all 3 major indices, which is the very definition of an uptrend. However, don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ENVX, DOV, MRO, GE, F, BEAM, TXN, NFLX, NOK, PYPL. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down between one and two-thirds of a percent at the open Tuesday.  All 3 major indices then followed through by selling off until lows were hit about noon.  From that point, DIA recovered a little with the SPY and QQQ continuing to bob along the lows.  However, from 1:30 pm to 3 pm all 3 indices sold off again to drive to new lows before grinding sideways the last hour.  8 of the 10 sectors are in the red with Consumer Cyclical and Technology taking by far the worst hit.  Healthcare and Utilities sectors managed to stay green.  This action had all 3 major indices printing gap-down, black-bodied candles.  QQQ has clearly given up the T-line as support while the SPY could be said to still be testing it and the DIA has yet to reach that much pullback.  With that said, all 3 are holding just above their 50sma. 

On the day, SPY lost 1.18%, DIA lost 0.76%, and QQQ lost 1.96%.  The VXX rose almost 3.5% to 21.67 and T2122 fell to just outside the overbought territory at 76.34.  10-year bond yields climbed back to remain flat at 2.80% and Oil (WTI) fell 1.6% to $95.16/barrel.  As has been the case for weeks, the volume was very light.  So, overall, it looks like Mr. Market was betting on more downside ahead of Wednesday’s Fed announcement.

In business news, just before the open, SHOP announced it will lay off 10% of its workforce as the company struggles with slowing growth.  After hours, TEVA announced it had reached a nationwide settlement of opioid lawsuits in the amount of $4.25 billion paid over 13 years.  The NHTSA also announced it will be investigating a crash (which killed a motorcyclist) that involved a TSLA which was operating under Autopilot mode.  Of note, both MDLZ and KO raised their full year guidance on strong demand.  Finally, TWTR announced after hours that it will hold its shareholder vote on the Musk acquisition on September 13 (the court case takes place in October).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In energy news, after hours the American Petroleum Institute announced that US oil inventories fell by more than 4 million barrels last week (a drawdown of 1.21 million barrels was expected).  The White House also announced that it does not plan to continue releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after the initial 6-month window.  Elsewhere, the EU has agreed on cuts to natural gas usage.  Each country agreed to cut their usage by 15% from August through March (versus the average use from 2017-2021).  However, the agreement included exemptions for many industries.  In related news, Germany announced it will cut electric car subsidies in 2023.

After the close, ASH, CB, MDLZ, V, TXN, AMP, CNI, FE, SKX, AGR, AXS, RUSHA, TNET, TER, BYD, CHX, BXP, EQR, CSGP, MTDR, ENPH, and NEX all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, CMG, and AXTA missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, JNPR, ZION, and HA beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GOOGL, GOOG, MSFT, and SYK all missed on both revenue and earnings.

So far this morning, BASFY, HUM, BMY, KHC, GPC, WM, TEVA, TEL, AEP, ADP, BSX, RCI, GIB, OC, AVY, TECK, CSTM, TMHC, ICL, HLT, GRMN, ODFL, EVR, IEX, SCL, SHOO, CHEF, TRN, and CCJ all posted beats on bot the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, EQNR, GSK, GD, PAG, OTIS, GPI, ROK, CME, TPX, TDY, PRG, and TRN all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, BG, DB, CS, SPOT, UMC, IVZ, EDU, and WNC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, BA, TMUS, and SHW missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  Hong Kong (-1.13%) was the only appreciable loser on the day.  Meanwhile, Thailand (+1.50%), India (+0.96%), and Taiwan (+0.78%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mostly green at mid-day.  With only 3 minor exchanges showing very modest red, the FTSE (+0.57%), DAX (+0.26%), and CAC (+0.24%) are more typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day ahead of data.  The DIA implies a +0.37% open, the SPY is implying a +0.80% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.33% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields remain flat at 2.801% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.2% to $96.13/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday include June Durable Goods Orders, June Trade Goods Balance, and June Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), June Pending Home Sales (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), the Fed Interest Rate Decision and Fed Statement (both at 2 pm), and FOMC Chair Press Conference (2:30 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AEP, APH, ADP, AVY, BA, BSX, BMY, BG, CAJ, GIB, CHEF, CME, CSTM, CS, CPG, DB, DRVN, EVR, FSV, GRMN, GD, GPC, GPI, HES, HLT, HUM, ICL, IVZ, KHC, LW, MHO, NSC, ODFL, OPCH, OTIS, OC, PAG, PRG, ROK, RCI, ROL, R, SAIA, SHW, SHOP, SLGN, SPOT, SCL, SHOO, TMUS, TMHC, TEL, TECK, TDY, TPX, TEVA, TRN, UMC, WNC, and WM before the open.  Then after the close, ACHC, AEM, ALGN, AMED, AWK, NLY, AR, ACGL, ASGN, AVB, CHRW, CSL, CG, CCS, CAKE, CHE, CHDN, CMPR, CINF, CTSH, COLM, FIX, CYH, ESI, EQT, EQIX, ETSY, RE, FLEX, FLS, F, FBHS, FWRD, GFL, GGG, HP, HOLX, ICLR, INVH, JBT, LCRX, MTH, META, MEOH, MAA, MKSI, MOH, MUSA, MYRG, NCR, NOV, ORLY, OII, OMF, PPC, PLXS, PTC, QCOM, RJF, NOW, SNBR, SSNC, STC, FTI, TDOC, TROX, URI, VICI, WFRD, and WFG report.

In economic news coming later this week, Thursday brings Q2 GDP and Weekly Initial jobless Claims.  Then Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

With the Fed taking center stage today, the major indices seem a little bullish in premarket. And while there may be a pop to start the day, do not be surprised if we see a reversal or at least a dead market until the FOMC news finally breaks and we hear Fed Chair Powell’s tone in the presser. Futures have pegged it as an extremely high probability of a 0.75% rate hike. However, the outlook for September and beyond will be at least as important as the hike itself. The only exception to this would be if the Fed goes bigger to a 1% hike (which is a low probability according to futures). The point is the market is hanging on words and parsing sentences. So, don’t predict and get burned. Also, don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action…especially after the 2 pm announcement. Still, the longer-term chart continues to show the downtrend hasn’t been broken (or at least it is not clear it is broken and held) across the major indices. So, be careful taking anything but very short-term trades. Also, remember that Q2 GDP comes out tomorrow and there are a flood of earnings still coming. Caution, hedged, small-and-nimble, or flat are the watchwords at the moment.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks opened flat to modestly higher on Monday.  The two large-cap indices then proceeded to roller-coaster sideways until 1:30 pm – 2 pm, when a modest selloff took us to the lows of the day by 3 pm.  Meanwhile, the QQQ sold off the first hour of the day and then roller-coastered sideways at a lower level until 1 pm, when its own selloff took hold taking it to the lows of the day also at 3 pm.  However, a late rally took all 3 major indices up off the lows in a strong rally the last 30 minutes. On the daily chart, this left us with black-bodied candles with wicks on both ends (the longer one to the downside).  The SPY and DIA printed indecisive Doji candles and the QQQ printed a Spinning Top.  However, all 3 major indices do remain above their T-line in a rising short-term trend.

All of this happened on very low volume yet again (with only a dark pool surge taking the DIA barely above average volume.  On the day, SPY gained 0.12%, DIA gained 0.28%, and QQQ lost 0.57%.  The VXX fell a little over 1% to 21.15 and T2122 climbed deeper into the overbought territory at 91.22.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.805% and Oil (WTI) climbed more than 2% to $96.66/barrel.  Despite this roller-coaster action in the indices, 8 of the 10 sectors were in the green, including Energy (which was far-and-away the biggest mover on the day) while Technology and Consumer Cyclicals were moderately lower. 

In business news, after hours WMT warned about its profit forecast.  This warning comes after the retailer cut its prices to get rid of excess inventory.  This news sent shocks throughout the retail industry. WMT stock was down more than 10% in post-market trading.  AMZN was off 4.5% and TGT was down almost 6% on the WMT news.  Discount chains fared slightly better on that news.  BIG, DLTR, DG, BJ, and OLLI were all down 4%, while COST was down 3%.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In energy news, during the day Russia’s Gazprom said it would further reduce the flow of gas to Europe from 40% of pipeline capacity to 20% of capacity.  Gazprom said they were having equipment problems related to a turbine pump sent to Canada (Siemens) for repair, delayed in return due to sanctions, and now back in Russian hands.  In related news, the IEA says that the US has eclipsed Russia to become the largest exporter of natural gas to Europe as of last month.  Elsewhere, Reuters reports that a drop off in US demand, a glut of oil at trading hubs, and the expected coming exports from China and India (reshipping Russian oil) has refiners under pressure.  The report says that refiners are now looking to reduce production in order to maintain higher profit margins. This comes as we now have had 6.5 consecutive weeks of falling gasoline prices.

After the close, UHS, PKG, CDNS, FFIV, ARE, WIRE, and CADE all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, WHR, and RNR both missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, NXPI, and SSD both beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, KALU missed on both the top and bottom lines.

So far this morning, CNC, UPS, ADM, GE, KO, FISV, GPK, PNR, AAN, and ARCC all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, RTX, MMM, MCD, PHM, PII, XRX, AVNT, TRU, VNTR, and MSCI missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UBS beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, GM, MCO, and CEQP missed on both the revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting that MMM also announced it will spin off its healthcare unit into a separate publicly trade company.  That transaction is expected to complete at the end of 2023.  In addition, GM cited supply chain problems for their misses and MCD touted price increases (increased margins) as the reason it beat on earnings even while missing on lower sales.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed.  Hong Kong (+1.67%), Shenzhen (+0.95%), and Shanghai (+0.83%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, India (-0.898%), Taiwan (-0.87%), and Thailand (-0.46%) paced the losses.  In Europe, we see a similar picture taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.56%) points higher while the DAX (-0.92%) and CAC (-0.48%) point lower.  Russia (+1.95%) is the biggest mover in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.43% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.45% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are falling at 2.758% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.8% to $98.48/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and June New Home Sales (both at 10 am), and the 5-year bond auction (1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include MMM, AAN, ACI, ADM, ARCC, AVNT, CNC, KO, GLW, CEQP, ECL, FISV, FELE, GE, GM, GPK, HUBB, IVZ, KMB, MCD, MCO, MSCI, PCAR, PNR, PII, PHM, RTX, ST, TRU, UBS, UPS, WSO, and XRX before the open.  Then after the close, GOOGL, AMP, ASH, AGR, AXTA, AXS, BXP, BYD, CNI, CHX, CMG, CB, CSGP, ENPH, EQR, FE, GOOG, HA, JNPR, MTDR, MSFT, MDLZ, NEX, RUSHA, SKX, TER, TXN, V, and ZION report.

In economic news coming later this week, on Wednesday, June Durable Goods Orders, June Trade Goods Balance, June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are announced.  Thursday brings Q2 GDP, and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

The WMT warning and big-name earnings misses have markets pulling back this morning. However, at least at this point, it looks like the T-line is holding as support and the daily chart continues to look like nothing more than a pullback in the recent week-long uptrend. These factors, plus the earnings calls, are likely to drive the market early today. As we get later in the day, positioning for tomorrow’s Fed announcement (which futures show a very high probability of being a 0.75% hike…but the wording and Q/A count!) and perhaps some waiting on that shoe to drop are likely to be the key factor across stocks, bonds, and even energy commodities. Don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action. Still, if we look at a longer-term chart, you can see that the downtrend has not been broken (or at least it is not clear it is broken and held) across the major indices. So, be careful taking anything but short-term trades ahead of the data and more importantly market reactions coming later in the week.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BBY XRT, SBUX, COST, ETSY, TSLA, DKS, ROST, GES, PLNT, CHWY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened mixed on Friday, ran up the first 30 minutes, and then reversed into a strong selloff into 2:15 pm.  The bulls then stepped back in to lead a small counter rally from 2:15 into the close.  Eight of the 10 sectors are in the red with Technology leading the charge lower after Thursday night’s big miss by SNAP.  Utilities were the only sector to manage to stay significantly green as traders sought safety.  On the daily chart, the result was that all 3 major indices touched 6-week highs before retreating.  This action is left us with a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candle in the SPY (and close to one in the DIA).  Both also appear headed back down to retest their 50sma (which are now close below) as support. Meanwhile, the QQQ just printed a big, ugly black candle with larger wicks on both ends of the body. 

Yet again, volume was very light on the day, far below the average for the SPY, DIA, and QQQ.  On the day, SPY lost 0.93%, DIA lost 0.42%, and QQQ lost 1.75%.  The VXX rose nearly 1% to 21.40 and T2122 fell but remains inside the overbought territory at 85.78.  10-year bond yields also plummeted for the same reason, running down to 2.73% before closing at 2.754% as markets bought up bonds.  Oil (WTI) is down only 1.31% to $95.09/barrel.  Friday’s move also saw us give back some of the gains for the week, creating Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices on a weekly chart.

In China news, Macau casinos (as well as many other businesses) reopened on a limited scale on Saturday.  The reason for the slowed reopening is many restrictions remain in place.  In the Chinese Real Estate sector, the CEO and CFO of defaulted property company Evergrande Group have resigned.  Elsewhere, China continues to complain and warn about a potential trip by Speaker of the House Pelosi to Taiwan.  The Washington Post reported that the Biden Administration is now worried about the trip and may do some horse-trading with China to get something in exchange for stopping Pelosi from making the trip.  Finally, Sunday the Financial Times reports that major US-listed Chinese companies (including BABA, BIDU, and JD) have come up with a 3-tier data storage and audit strategy that they believe will allow them to remain listed in the US while complying with both Chinese and American regulations.  The idea is that all data will be classified as non-sensitive, sensitive, or secretive data and different auditors would be allowed access to different tiers of data.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, we have passed 150 days of war and are now working on the 6th month. Russia surprised markets Friday with a 150-basis-point rate cut (analysts had expected a 0.50% cut).  This seems to indicate Russian concern over their economy.  Related to grain, Ukraine and Russia did sign an agreement to allow the reopening of the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for grain shipments.  This caused a major decrease in grain prices globally Friday.  However, less than 24 hours after they signed the agreement, Russia launched multiple missile attacks on the port of Odesa. Meanwhile, Germany stepped in with a $15.3 billion bailout of German gas company Uniper on Friday afternoon.  The deal also allows Uniper to start passing along some of the soaring gas price increases to end consumers (which were prohibited in the past).  Meanwhile, the US has approved a 16^th military assistance package for Ukraine.  More importantly, the Pentagon also says the US is now ready to give/lease Ukraine jets in future packages, including the A-10 Warthog (tank buster made by NOC) and F-16 (a fighter from GD). 

In business news, after the close Friday, UBER admitted to covering up a 2016 hack of their systems which affected 57 million passengers and drivers.  This was part of a non-prosecution agreement with the FTC.  On the other hand, TMUS agreed to pay $350 million plus spend another $150 million on security upgrades to settle litigation over a 2021 cyberattack affecting 76.6 million customers.  (They are expected to take a $400 million Q2 charge over the matter.)  A Hyundai subsidiary in Alabama has been accused of using child labor (including a 12-year-old boy, his 14-yeard old sister, and 15-year-old brother).  The Hyundai subsidiary denied responsibility saying they relied on 3^rd-party temporary work agencies to fill assembly plant jobs and expects them to remain in compliance with all labor laws.  On Sunday, 2,500 workers at 3 BA (Defense division) plants rejected a contract (over the removal of a pension and funding level in 401K contributions) and announced they will strike on August 1. 

So far this morning, INFY, NEM, and RPM have all reported beats on revenue while missing on earnings.  RHG reported in line with expectations on both lines.  DORM beat on both revenue and earnings, but also lowered forward guidance.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily toward the downside, but on modest moves.  Shenzhen (-0.83%), Japan (-0.77%), and Shanghai (-0.60%) paced the losses with only Thailand (+0.49%), South Korea (+0.44%), and Malaysia (+0.23%) in the green.  In Europe, stocks are leaning the opposite way (again on modest moves) with only 4 showing red at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.46%), and CAC (+0.53%) are typical of the region with Norway (-0.77%) and Denmark (-0.91%) the only appreciable losers in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green start to the day. The DIA implies a +0.55% open, the SPY is implying a +0.57% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.56% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are back up to 2.814% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.25% to $95.90/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include INFY, and RPM before the open.  Then after the close, ARE, BRO, CADE, CDNS, CLS, CR, WIRE, FFIV, KALU, LBRT, LOGI, NXPI, PKG, RRC, RNR, SSD, and WHR report. 

In economic news coming later this week, on Tuesday we get Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, June New Home Sales, and the 5-year bond auction.  Then Wednesday June Durable Goods Orders, June Trade Goods Balance, June Retail Inventories, June Pending Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, the Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Statement, and FOMC Press Conference are announced.  Thursday brings Q2 GDP, and Weekly Initial jobless Claims.  Finally, Friday we get the June PCE Price Index, Q2 Employment Cost Index, June Personal Spending, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

This data-heavy week (including a ton of major earnings reports) starts off slowly this morning. Ahead of the Fed and Q2 GDP, markets are drifting higher to start the week. The same may be true of food commodity prices as Russian attacks on Odesa (and for no apparent military reason Ukrainian wheat fields) has the world once again worried about food supplies. Don’t be surprised if/when we see more intraday whipsaw action. Yet on the daily chart, the bulls have the short-term trend on their side and are well up off the overnight lows. Still, if we look at a longer-term (perhaps weekly) chart, you can see that the downtrend has not been broken (or at least it is not clear it is broken and held) across the major indices. So, be careful taking anything but short-term trades ahead of the data and more importantly market reactions coming later in the week.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: UPRO, SQ, ARKK, AFRM, CROX, NOK, BA, MRNA, DIS. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks opened basically flat on Thursday, but then sold off for the first hour.  This saw the two large-cap indices to bounce up off their 50sma.  For the rest of the day, we had a series of whipsaws, ending on bullish swing right into the close.  In a broader context, it was another volatile, whipsaw day where the action ended up being bullish…again, on low volume.  7 of the 10 sectors were in the green with Healthcare and Technology leading the winners.  However, Energy and Communication Services were the biggest movers and they were both losing sectors.  The day saw the QQQ drag the large-caps higher on a standout post-earnings move by TSLA.

This all left us with white-bodied candles with longer lower wicks.  So, at this point, all three major indices are above their 50sma and sit a bit extended from their T-line (8ema) as well as in terms of their 4-week New High/Low Ratios.  On the day SPY gained 1.01%, DIA gained 0.52%, and QQQ gained 1.44%. The VXX fell 1.7% to 21.20 and T2122 remains deep in the overbought territory at 96.24.  10-year bond yields also fell sharply, dropping back below 3% to 2.889%, and Oil (WTI) dropped about 3.44% to $96.43/barrel (which was actually a rally up off the session lows).

In economic news, Weekly Initial Jobless claims came in significantly higher than expected (251k vs 240k forecast).  This was the highest level since mid-November.  Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Mfg. Index fell to -12.3, down 9 points from the prior month and much worse than the expected 1.6 value.  This was the lowest rating since May 2021.  Elsewhere, the ECB raised rates by half a percent (but for perspective, only to zero now since they were negative rates).  This was their first rate hike for 11 years and the largest hike since 2000.  As a result, the Euro strengthened against the Dollar.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In business news, after the close, AMZN agreed to buy primary care provider One Medical for $3.49 billion as the e-commerce giant continues its push into the healthcare sector.  Elsewhere, in a shock, Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International (located in Shanghai) has advanced its chipmaking technology by more than 2 generations.  They are now shipping 7-nanometer chips to Bitcoin miners.  This essentially guts US sanctions.  It could also make China a serious new competitor to western chipmakers like TSM, INTC, AMD, NVDA, QCOM, and SSNLF (import sanctions permitting). Finally, AXP raised its guidance on what it called resilient credit card usage.

On the Russian invasion story, Turkey announced that Ukraine and Russia will sign a deal today to reopen Ukraine’s Black Sea ports for grain exports.  Meanwhile, Ukraine asked its creditors for a two-year freeze on bond payments (in order to use its diminished resources on war efforts).  BLK is the largest holder of such bonds, holding $1.2 billion across its various funds.  AB is the second largest Ukrainian bond holder with $580 million while Pimco and Eaton Vance both hold around $300 million of the bonds.  Elsewhere, the EU announced another round of sanctions which included freezing the assets of Russia’s largest lender Sberbank.

After the close, MAT, UFPI, and WAL reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, WRB, PPG, RHI, and THC, missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, SNAP, STX, SIVB, SAM, and ISRG all missed on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves.  South Korea (-0.66%) and Shenzhen (-0.49%) were the only appreciable losers.  On the other side, Malaysia (+1.07%), Singapore (+0.92%), and India (+0.69%) led the gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mostly green on modest moves at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.22%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (+0.22%) are leading the region higher with only Belgium (-0.11%) and Finland (-1.22%) showing red at this point in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed open that leans toward the red.  The DIA implies a +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a -0.27% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.50% open at this hour.  10-year bonds are continuing that sharp fall at 2.809% and Oil (WTI) is off another 1.76% to $94.70/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Friday are limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AXP, ALV, CLF, GNTX, HCA, NEE, NHYDY, RF, ROP, SLB, TWTR, and VZ before the open.  There are no major reports after the close.

So far this morning, HCA, AXP, ALB, RF, and DNKEY all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, ALV, NEE, and ROP reported misses on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  On the other side, CLF and VZ beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Once again, earnings remain the primary focus of markets today. Last night’s terrible miss by SNAP on horrific ad sales has the high-tech QQQ spooked. So, despite generally good results, the 3 major indices are looking leery in the premarket. PMI numbers may have an impact after the market opens. However, as of now, we look to open flat to modestly bearish again. Don’t be surprised if the intraday whipsaw action continues. Still if we look at the daily chart, it is clear the bulls have the momentum in the short-term with part of a gap still left to fill to the upside in the large-cap indices.

Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Always move your stops in your favor (remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT HOUSE MONEY, it’s all our money!). Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets opened flat on Wednesday and then ground sideways in a tight range for the first hour of the day.  Then we saw a strong rally for a little over 30 minutes before resuming the sideways grind until about 12:45 pm.  At that point, we saw a sharp selloff that also lasted about 30 minutes before bobbing along sideways for the next 1.5 hours.  A slower rally took over at about 2:30 pm to take price back near the highs of the day only to fade the last 30 minutes.  This left us with white-bodied candles with plenty of wick on each end.  The DIA printed a Doji-type candle and the SPY a Spinning Top.

All 3 of the major indices have now broken through their 50sma and medium-term downtrend.  Exactly half of the 10 sectors are green and half are down.  With that said, Technology is by far the biggest mover, up nearly 2.5% on the day on big moves by NFLX, NVDA, AMD, META, and AMZN.  Once again, all of this happened on below-average volume.  On the day, SPY gained 0.65%, DIA gained 0.20%, and QQQ gained 1.59%. The VXX fell 1.28% to 21.57 and T2122 (the 4-week new High/Low ratio) is deep in the overbought territory at 96.60.  10-year bond yields climbed back above the key 3% level to 3.034% and Oil (WTI) fell just over 1.5% to $102.61/barrel. 

In business news, Reuters reported that SHEL is looking to sell two of its US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas projects (fields), hoping to raise $1.5 billion.  Then after the close, as part of its quarterly report, TSLA announced it sold 75% of its Bitcoin to raise $936 million in cash. Also after the close, F announced it will cut as many as 8,000 jobs in order to raise money for its electric vehicle investments.  Then this morning F reassured markets that it already has secured 100% of the batteries it needs for its 2022 and 2023 plans.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian invasion story, natural gas flows resumed from Russia via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.  However, the flow resumed only at the reduced (60% of capacity) rate that Russia initiated in retaliation for sanctions.  On the ground, Russian forces are getting closer to Ukraine’s second largest power plant (after having previously taken the largest).  Elsewhere, US and European sources claim that Russia is taking the steps needed for their country to annex Eastern and Southern Ukraine by September.  This news comes the same day that Deputy Chair of the Russian Security Council said that Ukraine could disappear from the map as a result of current events.

After the close, STLD, KMI, CSX, CCK, AA, CCI, KNX, and VMI all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, TSLA and EFX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, UAL, LVS, and WTFC beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, LSTR and SEIC reported misses on both the top and bottom lines.

So far this morning, T, PM, DOW, TRV, DHR, NOK, MMC, TSCO, IQV, DGX, IPG, KEY, ALK, SON, HBAN, SNA, and SNV have all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, SAP, AAL, FITB, DPZ, and HRI all reported beating on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, DHI, AN, BX, DOV, POOL, and TPH all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ABB missed on both the top and bottom lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  Hong Kong (-1.51%), Shanghai (-0.99%), and Shenzhen (-0.94%) paced the losses as Real Estate market problems remained top of mind in China.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (+1.39%), South Korea (+0.93%), and Malaysia (+0.93%) led the gainers in the region.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.47%), DAX (-0.45%), and CAC (+0.32%) are typical of the performance spread in the region.  However, Russia (-1.03%) and a couple of other smaller exchanges are down more than a percent in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a mixed and mostly flat start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.19% open, the SPY is implying a -0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.03% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are up to 3.051% and Oil (WTI) remains extremely volatile, down 4.5% to $95.42/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Thursday is limited to Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AIR, ABB, ALK, AAL, T, AN, BX, DHI, DHR, DPZ, DOV, DOW, FITB, FCX, HRI, HBAN, IPG, IQV, KEY, MMC, NOK, NUE, PM, POOL, DGX, SAP, SNA, SON, SNV, TSCO, TRV, TPH, UNP, and WBS before the opening bell.  Then after the close, SAM, COF, ISRG, MAT, PPG, RHI, STX, SNAP, SIVB, THC, UFPI, VLRS, WRB, and WAL report. 

In economic news coming later this week, on Friday Mfg. PMI and Services PMI are released.

In earnings reports later this week, on Friday we hear from AXP, ALV, CLF, GNTX, HCA, NEE, NHYDY, RF, ROP, SLB, and VZ.

Earnings remain the main focus for traders today. However, the Jobless Claims and to a lesser extent Philly Fed number coming at 8:30 may also drive markets. As of now, we look to open flat to modestly bearish. Still, there were a lot of strong earnings reports last night and so far this morning and the big tech names look to be trying to pull the rest of the market higher with them. So, don’t be surprised if the bulls find some energy…at least early. The QQQ shows a bullish trend, but the SPY and DIA are still just shy of getting that designation. With a gap to fill above in the large-cap indices, just keep in mind that the path of least resistance in the short term is upward.

Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Always move your stops in your favor and remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT house money, it’s all our money! One way to put this is Buffett’s first rule of making big money in the market, which is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped higher Tuesday and then slowly followed through to the upside until about 2:15 pm.  At that point, we saw a sideways grind take shape that lasted until the bulls again stepped in the last half hour of the day.  This left us with all 3 major indices forming something like a Fig Newton pattern on the daily chart and closing near their highs.  It was also the best day in 3 weeks for US markets.  The SPY and DIA are still fighting with their respective 50sma and longer-term downtrend resistance levels.  However, QQQ has cleared both those levels and is trying to pull the large caps higher with it, on the strength of names like NVDA, AMD, META, GOOG, AMZN, and NFLX.  All 10 sectors were in the green, with Industrials and Technology leading the way.  On the day, SPY gained 2.70%, DIA gained 2.40%, and QQQ gained 3.08%.  The VXX was flat at 21.85 and T2122 spiked deep into the overbought territory at 98.71.  10-year bond yields have popped back above 3% to 3.028% and Oil (WTI) closed 1.2% higher at $103.81/barrel.  All-in-all, the day was a very nice move on below-average volume for the bulls.

In business news, AMZN sued thousands of Facebook group administrators who allegedly brokered false/fake AMZN product reviews.  META shut down more than 10,000 such groups that AMZN reported for this behavior.  Later in the day, a judge ruled that the trial over the lawsuit brought by TWTR against Elon Musk (seeking to force his $54.20/share purchase) will begin in October.  Musk had sought to delay the trial until mid-2023.  After the close ATVI announced that a second group of employees (this time Quality Assurance testers) have formed a union, just months before the company’s acquisition by MSFT closes.  While this is a tiny group (20 people), it does represent a second department where either ATVI or MSFT will need to deal with the same union (Communications Workers of America).

In China news, the middle-class backlash against the housing sector is building steam.  The real estate sector in China has a long history of starting huge housing projects, selling the units prior to completion, and then never finishing the development (often due to the developer defaulting on loans and going out of business).  A now widespread boycott of paying mortgage payments on such projects has taken root and spread.  Currently, Bloomberg reports more than 300 projects from 24 real estate developers spread across over 90 cities are now participating in the boycott.  This is tripled in size from my first report on it a couple of weeks ago.  This is huge news, because real estate makes up one-fifth of the Chinese economy and public protest of any kind is unheard of in that country.  Elsewhere, SEC Chair Gensler again told reporters it was unclear whether Chinese authorities and American regulators will reach a deal to avoid delisting 200 Chinese companies from US stock exchanges.  He went on to say he was not particularly confident.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian story, the Wall Street Journal reported that EU sources are currently expecting that Russia will restart the flow of natural gas through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline (as scheduled) when the planned maintenance period ends Thursday.  The flow is expected to return to 60% of capacity (down 40% from prior levels).  Elsewhere, the Ukrainian First Lady will speak to the US Congress today.  She is expected to ask for more aid and condemn human rights abuses.  In that vein, the US is preparing yet another shipment (the 16^th) of military aid for Ukraine.

After the close, OMC, JBHT, CALM, and PNFP all reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, IBKR beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, NFLX missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  NFLX stock was up as much as 8.5% in after-hours trading as it lost fewer subscribers than analysts had expected (down just less than one million versus a loss of 2 million expected).

So far this morning, ABT, ASML, BIIB, TLSNY, NDAQ, CMA, and ELV all reported beating on both the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, MTB missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  On the other side, AKZOY, NTRS, and FHN beat on revenue but missed on earnings.  Finally, BKR, WIT, and HCSG reported misses on both lines.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Japan (+2.67%) was an outlier to the upside as the Bank of Japan decided to remain accommodative in fear that economic growth is uncertain (they did not raise rates).  Singapore (+1.68%), Australia (+1.65%), and Hong Kong (+1.11%) led the region higher.  It is worth noting that Hong Kong ended its city-wide Covid isolation program.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but lean to the red side at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.27%), DAX (-0.39%), and CAC (-0.26%) are leading the region lower.  However, 7 of the smaller exchanges are in the green, led by Greece (+0.95%) and Russia (+0.80%).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat to modestly red start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.16% open, the SPY is implying a -0.13% open, and the QQQ implies a flat -0.03% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields as back down to 2.969% and Oil (WTI) is off almost 2% to $102.21/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for Wednesday are limited to June Existing Home Sales (10 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ABT, ASML, BKR, BIIB, CMA, ELV, LAD, MTB, NDAQ, NTRS, and WIT before the opening bell.  Then after the close, AA, CCI, CCK, CSX, DFS, EFX, KMI, KNX, LSTR, LVS, SEIC, STLD, TSLA, UAL, VMI, and WTFC report. 

In economic news coming later this week, on Thursday we get Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Weekly Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday Mfg. PMI and Services PMI are released.

In earnings reports later this week, on Thursday we get reports from AIR, ABB, AAL, T, AN, BX, DHI, DHR, DPZ, DOV, DOW, FITB, FCX, HRI, HBAN, IPG, IQV, KEY, MMC, NOK, NUE, PM, POOL, DGX, SAP, SNA, SON, SNV, TSCO, TRV, TPH, UNP, WBS, SAM, COF, ISRG, MAT, PPG, RHI, STX, SNAP, SIVB, THC, UFPI and WRB.  Finally, on Friday we hear from AXP, ALV, CLF, GNTX, HCA, NEE, NHYDY, RF, ROP, SLB, and VZ.

Earnings season remains the top story for markets. However, Mortgage demand dropped to its lowest point since 2000 last week as the average 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan rate rose to 5.82%.  This comes as the overall demand fell another 6%, as new home purchase applications were down 7% week-on-week (down 19% versus the same week last year) and refinance applications fell 4% on the week. So, the housing market will also get some focus from traders.

Recession fears (including those stoked by Russia) will remain in the back of trader’s minds and eyes will also start drifting toward the Fed with a rate meeting next week. Futures are showing a very modestly bearish start to the day right now. However, there are more earnings reports coming before the open and overall the market is in a positive mood after yesterday’s strong showing. Remember that the SPY is still fighting with its mid-term downtrend line and 50sma. So, volatility remains a high probability. The only two things that we know for sure are that we are seeing very low volumes (which tells us there is not much conviction in either the bull or bear camps) and we also know the longer-term trend remains bearish, while we have been in a sideways to slightly bullish more for a few weeks.

Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Always move your stops in your favor and remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT house money, it’s all our money! One way to put this is Buffett’s first rule of making big money in the market, which is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality. Lastly, remember it is Friday. So, be prepared for the weekend news cycle.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: HALO, INSG, AGNC, XBI, SWKS, INMD, RIVN, BMY, NFLX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped about 1% higher for the second straight time on Monday, following Europe and Asia.  They even managed to follow-through for a few minutes.  However, by 10 am, a long, slow selloff had taken over to more than fill the gap and drive to the lows of the day before rebounding the last 10 minutes of the day.  This left us with gap-up, Bearish Engulfing Candles with an upper wick on all 3 major indices.  Once again, all this action is taking place on very low volumes. Energy was far and away the biggest gaining sector, while Healthcare was by far the biggest losing sector of the session.  Four of the 10 sectors were positive with the other six being negative.  On the day, SPY lost 0.79%, DIA lost 0.64%, and QQQ lost 0.85%.  The VXX gained 1.72% to 21.91 and T2122 was flat remaining in the overbought territory at 81.63.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.982% and Oil (WTI) spiked 4.64% to $102.12/barrel.

In economic news, despite the increase in bond yields, the curve remains inverted.  The 5-year bond yields is higher than the 10-year bond yield and the 2-year yield is higher than the 5-year yield.  So “2s vs 5s,” “5s vs 10s,” and “2s vs 10s” are all inverted, which are all potential indicators of a coming recession.  Also related to bonds, it was announced that China’s holdings of US Bonds (debt) fell to $980 billion, below $1 trillion for the first time in 12 years (since May 2010). I am not sure if this is a reflection of the health of the Chinese economy, on Chinese perception of US debt risks, come combination of the two, or pure coincidence.

In business news, more companies are reporting belt-tightening.  Early in the day Monday, GS announced it will slow hiring and reinstitute year-end performance reviews and staff reductions.  Later, AAPL said they will slow hiring and reduce spending for some groups.  This comes after MSFT reported over the weekend that they had laid off 1% of its staff and GOOGL said last week they will slow hiring and expected employees to work harder to avoid job cuts.  It was also reported (but not announced) that META has told team managers to weed out poor performers to reduce staff sizes as its Ad business struggles.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russian story, as many expected, state-owned Gazprom said that due to “unforeseen circumstances” it is not in a position to comply with gas contracts in Europe.  This claim was made to not only cover future non-supply but also to cover the gas shipment reductions (40%) that Gazprom has put in place since June (as direct responses to Western sanctions). Germany has forcefully rejected the Gazprom “force majeure” claim.  European economists are projecting scenarios where the cutoff of Russian gas would reduce the German GDP by at least 6% with major industries like chemicals being shut down nearly completely.  So, in addition to people staying warm in winter, such a move would crush the European economy.

In Forex news, the dollar dropped early this morning on rumors that the ECB will raise rates by 50 basis points amidst a worsening inflation background.  European bonds and stocks fell on the more hawkish outlook. 

After the close, IBM reported beats on both the top and bottom lines.  However, the company slightly reduced guidance for the year in terms of free cash flow (from $10.5 billion to $10 billion) as well as reporting that gross margins shrank from 55.2% (Q1) to 53.4% (Q2).  So far this morning, JNJ, VLVLY, TFC, HAL, TELNY, CFG, and SBNY have all reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, NVS, MAN, and HAS all missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, ALLY reported a miss on both the top and bottom line.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned heavily to the red side on modes moves.  Japan (+0.65%) and India (+0.38%) were the only appreciable gainers.  Meanwhile, Hong Kone (-0.89%), Thailand (-0.74%), and Australia (-0.56%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are also mixed on modest moves at mid-day.  Russia (-1.92%) is by far the biggest loser.  Meanwhile, the FTSE (+0.28%), DAX (+0.01%), and CAC (-0.12%) are typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.66% open, the SPY is implying a +0.83% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.88% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields remain flat at 2.98% and Oil (WTI) is down almost 2% to $100.57/barrel.

The major economic news events scheduled for Tuesday include June Building Permits and June Housing Starts (both at 8:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include ALLY, CFG, HAL, HAS, JNJ, LMT, MAN, NVS, SBNY, and TFC before the opening bell.  Then after the close, CALM, IBKR, JBHT, NFLX, and OMC report.

In economic news coming later this week, on Wednesday, June Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories are announced.  On Thursday we get Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Weekly Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday Mfg. PMI and Services PMI are released.

Again, earnings season and recession fears (including those stoked by Russia) are top of mind for most traders. There are smaller issues that pop up, such as rumors NCR is in talks to be acquired by a private equity firm or that individual companies are tightening belts to get ahead of a downturn. However, with the Fed still more than a week out, those two major themes dominate markets. Futures are showing that markets are in a positive mood this morning. However, expect more volatility and chop. The only two things that we know for sure are that we are seeing very low volumes (which tells us there is not much conviction in either the bull or bear camps) and we also know the trend remains bearish until it is broken and price proves it can hold the break.

Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Always move your stops in your favor and remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT house money, it’s all our money! One way to put this is Buffett’s first rule of making big money in the market, which is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality. Lastly, remember it is Friday. So, be prepared for the weekend news cycle.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MRVL, DKNG, C, SOFI, KWEB, CGC, WMT, AAPL, ARKK, NFLX, AFRM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped 1% – 1.5% higher across all 3 major indices on Friday.  However, from that point they just ground sideways in a very tight range, until a pop higher the last 5 minutes of the day.  This left us with gap-up, white-bodied candles that closed very near the high of the day.  Each of those 3 major indices are now sitting just above their respective T-lines (8ema).  It’s worth noting volume remains well-below average.  All 10 sectors were solidly green with Financial Services being by far the hottest group. On the day, SPY gained 1.87%, DIA gained 2.04%, and QQQ gained 1.81%.  The VXX fell 3.5% to 21.54 and T2122 spiked just up into the overbought territory at 81.67.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.926% and Oil (WTI) prices were up almost 1.9% to $97.55/ barrel.  It’s worth noting that the 2yr vs 10yr bond yields and 5yr vs 10yr bond yields both remained inverted at the end of the week.  By the end of the day Friday, 31.35% of stocks were trading above their 40sma.  At the same time, 16.16% of stocks are trading above their 200sma. 

Taking a broader look, on the week, SPY was down 0.92%, QQQ was down 1.17%, and DIA was down 0.24%.  All 3 printed Hammer-type candles on that weekly chart.  However, all 3 also remain below their weekly T-lines and 50sma levels.  Those 50smas also continue to fall.  In short, the trend remains to the downside.

In economic news Friday, the NY Empire State Mfg. Index came in much higher than expected (11.10 vs -2.00 forecast and -1.20 in June).  June Retail Sales also came in a bit above expectation (+1.0% vs +0.8% estimated and -0.1% the prior month).  However, May Business inventories rose slightly more than expected and May Retail inventories were the same as the prior month.  Finally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment came also in slightly above forecast (47.3 actual versus 47.0 consensus estimate but still down from the June 47.5).  Taken as a whole, these are clues that the Fed will continue on course for a 0.75% rate hike on July 27.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In supply chain news, over the weekend, President Biden took action to prevent 115k railroad workers from striking today (and for another 60 days). He also appointed an emergency board whose task is to find a contract compromise within 30 days.  This action prevents 30% of US freight from coming to a halt.  However, from a different direction, ADM is among the major rail users already complaining about inadequate (untimely) rail service. The nation’s ports are staggering from slow rail (and trucking) service causing containers to stack up and having nowhere to put them.  The Port of Los Angeles currently has over 33,000 containers waiting for an average of 9-plus days for pickup by rail or trucking shippers. MarineTraffic says over 640,000 containers are sitting on ships waiting to be unloaded at US ports at the moment.  And CNBC says that out of all US ports, only the Norfolk, VA, and NY/NJ ports are operating at normal speeds.  As a potential answer to this, railroads are proposing that they be allowed to reduce the minimum staffing for a train from two to one employee. Not surprisingly, unions oppose the move as a major safety hazard.

In the invasion story, Saturday Russia took another step back toward a centrally-planned economy.  Putin has appointed a new Deputy Prime Minister (Manturov, formerly Trade Minister) whose job is to mobilize the Russian economy to support the war. New laws force companies to accept military contracts (on the military’s terms) and force workers to work nights, weekends, and holidays, as well as give up vacations if the company feels it necessary. Manturov also declared two new focuses of the Russian economy.  First, he plans to develop local (Russian-made) attack drones.  Second, Taiwan won’t sell them advanced chips and even after ramping up the buying of lower-end chips from China, they have decided they want to develop a Russian semiconductor industry (which will take years at best). 

On the same topic from a different perspective, the first step toward creating this new industry would be to get the lithography equipment needed to make a semiconductor Fab plant. However, currently, ASML (Netherlands) is the only source of lithography equipment in the world and they won’t sell to Russia.  So, Russia will need to steal and/or develop this technology to compete with ASML. Elsewhere, from a European economy point of view, Gazprom announced that they extracted 10% less and exported 33% less natural gas in the first 6 months of 2022 compared to 2021. With the natural gas flow now shut down completely (ostensibly for maintenance) and fear Russia will not turn it back on, the SHEL CEO warned Europe that energy rationing may hit the region by winter and the IEA concurred that Russia is likely going to prevent European nations from filling storage tanks before winter to maximize their leverage.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board.  Hong Kong (+2.70%), South Korea (+1.90%), and Shanghai (+1.55%) led the region higher but even the laggard (New Zealand) was up 0.37%.  (Japan was closed today for a holiday.) In Europe, the same is true with the exception of Russia (-0.62%) at mid-day.  This comes on optimism from the EU announcing it will sign a new gas supply deal with Azerbaijan (to replace Russian gas) and a weakening dollar.  The FTSE (+1.19%), DAX (+1.28%), and CAC (+1.53%) are leading the region up in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another significant gap higher to start the day.  The DIA implies a +0.96% open, the SPY is implying a +1.01% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.18% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are at 2.956% and Oil (WTI) is up almost 2% to $99.51/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include BAC, SCHW, GS, PLD, and SYF before the opening bell.  Then after the close, we hear from IBM.  So far this morning, GS, NRCBY, and SYF have all reported beats on both lines.  BAC beat on revenue while coming in light on earnings.  (SCHW and PLD report closer to the bell.)

In economic news coming later this week, on Tuesday we get June Building Permits and June Housing Starts.  Then Wednesday, June Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories are announced.  On Thursday we get Philly Fed Mfg. Index and Weekly Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday Mfg. PMI and Services PMI are released.

Earnings season will continue to be a big story and leads the news today. Futures are showing that markets like what they hear out of Europe and earnings so far today. However, be aware that both large-cap indices gaps could be seen as testing the mid-term downtrend. (As the old saw goes, “trust but verify”…or in our case get confirmation.) We certainly could have put in a bottom, but the most recent swing-low was a lower-low (for the DIA and SPY) and that puts a kink in a new bullish trend. So, expect more volatility and chop. Since the vast majority of traders don’t remember a similar situation, we are likely to whipsaw back and forth as the market re-learns the lessons taught in prior decades. There are only two things that we know for sure. First, the low volumes of the last few weeks tell us there is not a huge amount of conviction in either the bull or bear camps (and a LOT of retail traders have fled the market). Second, we know the trend remains bearish until it is broken and price proves it can hold the break.

Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and take those profits when you have them. Demonstrate patience and wait for confirmation. Remember that trading is our job. So, do the work and follow the process. Always move your stops in your favor and remember the “Legend of the man in the green bathrobe“…it is NOT house money, it’s all our money! One way to put this is Buffett’s first rule of making big money in the market, which is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong, respect your stop, and take the loss before it grows. Lastly, remember that you get rich slowly and steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality. Lastly, remember it is Friday. So, be prepared for the weekend news cycle.

See you in the trading room.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: AI, BA, ARKK, AFRM, TDOC, TCOM, DKNG, TGT, AAPL, NFLX, RIDE, TLT, C. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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