relief rally Archives - Page 54 of 129

Markets Rest/Pause After Recent Run

December 29, 2021 by Ed Carter

Large-caps stocks gapped up slightly on Tuesday and followed through for the first 30 minutes. After that, the rest of the day was a long, slow sideways grind with a slightly bearish trend. However, the QQQ did a small gap higher and immediately sold off at a slow pace for the rest of the day. Again, this was all done on very light volume. This action left the SPY as a black-bodied Spinning Top, the QQQ just missing on being a Dark Cloud Cover, and the DIA as a white-bodied candle with a large upper wick. On the day, SPY lost 0.06%, DIA gained 0.29%, and QQQ lost 0.43%. The VXX fell 2.69% to 19.17 and T2122 fell but remains in the overbought territory at 83.79. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.484% and Oil (WTI) rose a half of a percent to $76.01/barrel.

Click for video

Markets continued to rotate out of high-tech names. Meanwhile, travel stocks were amongst the strongest as the recovery from the effects of the flight cancellations continued for a second day. However, it was the mega-cap DIA that made the biggest splash as it completed 5 straight up days to close at a new all-time high close.

Elon Musk sold another $1.02 billion worth of TSLA stock on Tuesday (934,090 shares) in an effort to raise funds to pay the tax on the stock options he is exercising. However, he also exercised options giving him another 1.6 million shares during the day. So, he pocketed a billion dollars and still ended the day with nearly 700k more shares than when it started. A nice gig if you can get it.

Covid (and omicron in particular) continues to make news this week. France reported a record number with 180,000 new cases reported today. Meanwhile, the UK (same size population) reported 129,000 new cases today. However, the good news out of the UK is that the number of patients in the ICU remains very low in this latest wave and the UK Health Minister says patients are spending a relatively short time in hospital when they are admitted.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but the major exchanges leaned to the downside. Shenzhen (-1.24%), Shanghai (-0.91%), and South Korea (-0.89%) paced the losses. Meanwhile, Australia (+1.21%) and Thailand (+0.72%) led the gains. In Europe, markets are mostly lower in modest trading at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.82%) is an outlier to the upside, but the DAX (-0.40%) and CAC (-0.05%) are typical of the region where just 4 exchanges show any green at all in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA implies a +0.02% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.15% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.494% and Oil (WTI) is down six-tenths of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Nov. Retail Inventories and Nov. Trade Goods Balance (both at 8:30 am), Nov. Pending Home Sales (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled either before or after the market Wednesday..

As we grind toward year-end, volume continues to dry up. Canada will be back to trading today but expect very much the same story up North as we have seen in the US this week. With that said, beware of volatility as the very light volume gives both the bulls and the bears an easier path to pushing swings in the short term. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan…and that includes stops and/or hedges.

Remember the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DD, AOS, AME, FMC, SEE, DOV, IR, RAD, JCI, FCX. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms of Service

Indices At the Highs Across the Board

December 28, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about a third of a percent on Monday and then continued a slow rally that lasted the whole day, closing very near the highs. This left us with strong white candles in all 3 major indices, with the SPY closing at an all-time high and the DIA and QQQ both missing that mark by just a fraction of a percent. On the day, SPY gained 1.42%, DIA gained 0.99%, and QQQ gained 1.65% on very low volumes. The VXX fell 2.4% to 19.70 and T2122 rose further into the overbought territory at 93.02. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.477% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 3% to $76.00/barrel (despite being down 1.5% early in the morning session).

US airline stocks all gapped sharply lower on the weekend flight cancellation news. However, they made a nice recovery, in spite of multiple pieces of bad news. They had to cancel another 1,000 flights Monday (this time blaming winter storms). In addition, Dr. Fauci (NIH) told MSNBC that the US should consider implementing a vaccine mandate for all domestic air travel. When asked for comment on this, the White House referred to last week’s statement by the President saying the measure had been considered, but the consensus recommendation was that it was not necessary at this time. Despite gap-downs of almost 3%, AAL closed -0.49%, UAL closed -0.65%, DAL closed -0.76%, LUV closed -0.26%, and JBLU closed -0.75% on the day.

China’s 10-year bond yields fell to their lowest level in 18 months as the Chinese government promised “proactive measures” to stabilize their economy in 2022. Most analysts believe this will mean adding stimulus to stop the decline in economic growth that is being forecast to be the lowest since at least 1990. Various ministries, including the Chinese Central Bank, finance ministry, and commerce ministry all commented on the call announcing vague plans to stimulate growth including tax and fee cuts. This could have implications for the corporate world as the second-largest economy diverges from the tightening now underway in the US and west.

GS told its employees Monday that effective February 1, all employees who come in their US offices will be required to show proof of full Covid vaccination (including booster shot). This includes both employees and visitors to the offices. In addition, starting January 10, the company plans to double Covid testing to a required twice weekly for anyone entering US offices of GS. It is unclear if other banks will follow suit, but GS has been the leader which other big banks have followed on covid policy so far.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board. Japan (+1.37%), Shenzhen (+0.83%), and Taiwan (+0.82%) led the gains. In Europe, markets are green across the board at mid-day, with the lone exception of a slightly red FTSE. The FTSE (-0.02%), DAX (+0.65%), and CAC (+0.50%) lead the region with the latter 2 being typical. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward another modest gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a +0.25% open, the SPY is implying a +0.24% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.46% open at this hour.

With the bulk of traders still away on holiday (as evidenced by light volumes), the bulls had a free path to push stocks higher as we head into year-end. At least early on, this looks to be a pattern that will repeat today. With that said, beware of intraday whipsaw because, with light volume, it would not take nearly as much work to increase volatility and punish those who chase. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: ARCE, GMRE, SBS, NVDA, ON, AMD, MSFT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Scrubbed Flights and Good Holiday Sales

December 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Thursday saw a modest gap higher with about 15minutes of follow-through. The rest of the day was a dead market grinding sideways in a very tight range. However, heavy selling (or dark pool reporting) saw the biggest candle of the day give back a decent portion of the gains the last 5 minutes. This left us with white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices. All 10 major sectors were green on the day with Consumer Cyclical and Industrials leading the way. However, also note that, as expected, the last trading day before the Xmas break was a low volume day. For the day, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA gained 0.55%, and QQQ gained 0.75%. The VXX lost a percent to 20.18 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 88.10. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.493% and Oil (WTI) rose more than a percent to $73.76/barrel.

Omicron is back in the news over the weekend as UAL, DAL, AAL, and JBLU had to cancel 1,600 US flights between Friday and Sunday due to covid cases among crews. While this sounds terrible, it really only accounted for about 5% of all flights over the weekend. Still, travel-related stocks are dropping in premarket on the news. In better news, the UK government released a study on Sunday that reports omicron patients are 70% less likely to require hospitalization than those with the delta variant. This falls roughly in line with a previous South African study finding omicron patients to be 80% less likely to require hospitalization. However, the news may need to be tempered by the fact that omicron is more communicable. So, in theory, there should be more omicron infections than delta cases.

Bloomberg reported Sunday that MA found that holiday (Nov. 1- Dec. 24) sales rose 8.5% versus 2020 (+10.7% from 2019). However, note that these ARE NOT inflation-adjusted numbers. So, the majority of the gains were due to price increases and not new buying. The largest gains were in apparel (47%), jewelry (32%), and electronics (16%). MA also reports that ecommerce now accounts for 21% of all holiday sales, which is equal to department store sales.

Mortgage rates fell to a four-week low this week. The 30-year fixed-rate conforming loan rate averaged 3.27% (down from 3.30%). However, refinance loan applications rose only 2% while new home purchase loan applications fell 3%.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on mostly modest moves. Malaysia (1.15%) was an outlier to the upside. Taiwan (+0.49%), India (+0.49%), and Australia (+0.44%) led gainers. South Korea (-0.43%) and Japan (-0.37%) paced the losses. In Europe, stocks are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.02%), DAX (+0.15%), and CAC (+0.21%) are typical of the region with Denmark (+1.11%) an outlier. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a bullish gap to start the week. The DIA implies a +0.55% open, the SPY is implying a +0.62% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.85% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are flat, but Oil (WTI) is down almost 1.5% in early trading.

There are no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. Note that Canadian markets are closed Monday in Tuesday for the holiday. There are no earnings reports scheduled for Monday either before or after the market.

As we start back up from the Christmas break, it looks like the bulls are in charge as of premarket. Remember that volume is still expected to be low with a lot of big fund leaders extending their holiday another week. With that said, beware of intraday whipsaw that will absolutely punish those who chase. Remember, plan the trade and trade the plan.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Stocks Came Back Tues But Look Flat Early

December 22, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Turn-Around Tuesday, markets gapped the opposite of Monday’s gap-down. Then, after a couple of hours of sideways waffle, they started a slow rally that lasted until stocks gave back some of the post-gap gains during the last half hour of the day. This gave us large, gap-up, white candles that closed on their highs and tested the T-line in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 1.73%, DIA gained 1.59%, and QQQ gained 2.23%. The VXX fell almost 5% to 21.66 and T2122 shot back up to mid-range at 66.32. 10-year bond yields shot up to 1.47% and Oil (WTI) jumped 4.17% to $71.47 per barrel.

A study released overnight from the American National Institute for Communicable Diseases done using South African patients has found that omicron has an 80% lower risk of hospitalization and a 70% lower risk of severe disease compared to the Delta variant. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed. Bloomberg reports that while important, at least one UK scientist fears the data may be somewhat biased by the time of year each sample set of data was taken from. (South Africa immunized 44% of its population during the time period the data was drawn from and seasons changed.) Still, for the market, this has to be seen as positive.

The World Bank reported overnight that they are forecasting a sharp decrease in GDP growth in China for 2022. They have lowered their Chinese forecast to +5.1%, which would be the slowest growth in China since 1990. For reference, Chinese GDP grew 8% this year (which itself is below the 8.1% that had been forecast in October). This slowing of the second-largest economy could have major US market implications.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board on modest moves. Only Shanghai (-0.07%) remained on the red side of flat while India (+1.10%) was an outlier to the upside. Most exchanges showed very modest green moves with Hong Kong (+0.57%) and Malaysia (+0.52%) leading the way. In Europe, markets lean toward the green side on minor moves for the most part at mid-day. The FTSE (+0.10%), DAX (+0.19%), and CAC (+0.09%) are typical of the continent in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA implies a +0.15% open, the SPY is implying a +0.06% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.01% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Q3 GDP (8:30 am), Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Nov. Existing Home Sales (both at 10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to KMX, CTAS, MSM, and PAYX before the open. There are no major reports scheduled for after the close.

After the Tuesday rebound, beware of a dead market as we are now near the point where traders take off early to get a few extra days of holiday vacation. Intraday whipsaw has been the norm lately, but the global markets and US premarkets are suggesting traders are at least taking the day off. to put a hurt on chasers.

When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Remember the first rule of making a lot of money in the market is to not lose a lot of money in the market. So, stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: APPS, NKE, MSFT, V, ARKG, AMD, MU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Whipsaw Reigns as EV Stocks Take Beating

December 21, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down well over a percent and then followed through the first hour of the day. However, this led to a sideways waffle the rest of the session but ended on an up wave that had the 3 major indices closing near their highs of the day. This volatility left us with gap-down, white Hammer-type candles across the major indices. On the day, SPY lost 1.06%, DIA lost 1.23%, and QQQ lost 1.10%. The VXX rose almost 4% to 22.78 and T2122 dove deep into the oversold territory at 4.44. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.426% and Oil (WTI) fell 3.1% to $68.66/barrel.

In a follow-up to the weekend story of Senator Manchin essentially killing President Biden’s domestic spending and climate agenda, markets reacted to the news during the day. In particular, electric vehicle (EV) stocks plummeted as the prospect of EV tax incentives, more widely available charging stations, etc. were killed as part of the package. RIDE lost 8.15%, FFIE lost 9.45%, NKLA lost 7.31%, and recent IPO RIVN lost 7.90%. TSLA and GM (which no longer qualify for federal tax credits) fared relatively better. TSLA lost 3.50% and GM lost 2.03% on the day.

After the close NKE and MU both easily beat estimates on both revenue and earnings. MU spiked 7% in after-hours trading on this news. Meanwhile, NKE was up almost 3% in the post-market session. However, this morning GIS easily beat on revenue but missed on earnings. At the same time, RAD handily beat on earnings but missed on revenue.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the green side on varying moves. Only Malaysia (-0.09%) showed any red while Japan (+2.08%), Hong Kong (+1.00%), and Shanghai (+0.88%) led the gains. In Europe, stocks are green across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.00%), DAX (+1.10%), and CAC (+1.03%) are typical of the continent, with outliers like Russia (+0.35%) and Norway (+1.60%). As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a gap higher at the open. The DIA implies a +0.89% open, the SPY is implying a +0.95% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.08% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up strongly to 1.451% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.5% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday is limited to Q3 Current Accounts (8:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to GIS and RAD before the open. Then after the close, AIR reports.

Once again markets made most of their eventual move in the overnight gap. However, there was just enough intraday whipsaw to put a hurt on chasers. Only the mega-cap DIA has not tested its December lows, as the SPY and QQQ passed their test Monday. It looks like we may be headed back to retest the T-line next. So, consider whether there is a trend at the moment and whether you have an edge. Either way, keep a close eye on volatility and don’t forget that volume is likely to dry up as the week goes on.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MCK, JNPR, ABUS, NEM, LSI, CSCO, PGR, CVS, AVGO, VZ, CERN, GILD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Short Week Met By Lowered GDP Forecast

December 20, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down about a percent on Friday morning. Then with the quadruple witching, volatility reigned. After the gap down, the large-caps put in a whipsaw day along the opening price before closing near the lows. However, the QQQ rallied, more than closing the gap before it started its volatile ride. Again, the tech stocks ended up closer to the lows than the highs of the day. The SPY and QQQ indices both printed indecisive candles with large upper wicks, but the DIA printed a large-body black candle. On the day, SPY lost 1.41%, DIA lost 1.62%, and QQQ lost 0.50%. The VXX rose 3% to 21.97 and T2122 rose just outside the oversold territory to 21.05. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.404% and Oil (WTI) lost almost 3% to $70.34/barrel.

Covid has come back as a major business issue again. In the UK, the Mayor of London said that more Covid restrictions are inevitable after declaring a major incident as both cases and hospitalizations spiked in the city. The UK government is debating another lockdown. However, in the Netherlands, the debate is over as they went back into lockdown until mid-January. France and Italy have begun discussing their own options in this regard. If there is a silver lining, it is that the corporate world now has a lot of experience dealing with remote work, mask requirements, and the loss of manpower due to illness/quarantine.

GS cut their US economic forecasts significantly this morning as a result of the last week’s political drama. They have lowered Q1 by 1% (to +2%), Q2 by half of a percent (to +3%), and Q3 by 0.25% (to +2.75%). This comes amidst the backdrop of 7% inflation and is the result of new expectations that President Biden’s domestic economic spending is now dead. (Following Dem. Senator Manchin’s declaration, that he would not vote for that spending.)

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. India (-2.18%), Japan (-2.13%), and Shenzhen (-2.01%) led the losses as omicron fears and the divergence of Chinese easing from Western tightening took root. In Europe, we also see red across the board at mid-day. The FTSE (-1.07%), DAX (-1.69%), and CAC (-0.99%) pace the continent as usual, but losses are widespread and strong as of early afternoon. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to the US following the rest of the world lower. The DIA is implying a -1.02% open, the SPY implies a -1.14% open, and the QQQ is implying a -1.33% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are lower (1.385%) and Oil (WTI) is down over 3% in early trading.

There is no major economic news scheduled for release Monday. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CLL before the open. Then after the close, NKE and MU report.

Welcome back to a short, likely low volume, and potentially whippy pre-Xmas week. US markets look like they want to test the early December low this morning. Keep an eye on volatility and don’t forget that volume is likely to dry up as the week goes on.

Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Trade with the trend, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade carefully, and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge in place.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: VZ, NEM, IBM, DRI, LEG, SBUX, BBIG, CRSP, BAC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bears Take Back Control

December 17, 2021 by Ed Carter

Maybe it was a reaction to the premarket rate hike by the UK or maybe it was just an “on second thought” reaction to Wednesday’s Fed announcements. Whatever it was, after a gap higher at the open, the bears were in control all day long. This left us with a Dark Cloud Cover signal in the SPY and a Bearish Engulfing signal in the QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.83%, QQQ lost 2.51%, and the DIA went relatively unscathed at -010%. The VXX rose over 4% to 21.28 and T2122 dropped back down a bit to 44.64. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.428% and Oil (WTI) still gained 1.67% to $72.05/barrel.

ADBE (-10.22%) got crushed on Thursday after announcing weak forward guidance while reporting a beat on revenue and reporting in-line earnings all before the open. Their guidance was 2.5% below analyst estimates on earnings and 1.5% low on revenue for the next quarter. However, Mr. Market felt that punishment was required. Then after the bell, RIVN share fell 10% as well when the company reported in-line earnings and revenue, but gave poor production guidance in its first-ever quarterly report.

New York City is experiencing what it calls an “alarming increase” in covid numbers. The city has seen a 135% increase in reported cases and a 21% increase in hospitalizations over the last two weeks. As a result, many Wall Street companies are moving back to remote work. Among the major brokerage/fund firms making those decisions are BLK, JPM, and JEF. However, the resurgence is having an impact nationwide as companies as varied as AAPL, FB, F, and GOOG have postponed their “return to office” and/or closed particular offices again. (AAPL closed 3 stores.)

Meta announced that 50,000 FB users had been spied on by seven “surveillance for hire” companies. (Side note: FB is absolutely not the only platform these companies surveil.) Most of these companies are located in Israel, which has particular expertise in spyware and data mining. Most of the people targeted were journalists, activists, and either government or corporate officials. It is widely believed these companies were hired by governments who either lack the capabilities in-house or, like the US, are sometimes forbidden by law from spying on their own citizens…but are allowed to hire someone else to do it.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Japan (-1.79%), Shenzhen (-1.62%), and India (-1.53%) led the way lower. However, there were 5 exchanges that gained, mostly on very modest moves, with an outlier in Malaysia (+1.17%). In Europe, stocks are nearly red across the board. The FTSE (+0.19%) is the only green as the DAX (-0.74%) and CAC (-1.08%) are much more typical of the region at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a red open. The DIA implies a -0.13% open, the SPY is implying a -0.35% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.85% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are down sharply to 1.397% and Oil (WTI) is down almost 2% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Friday is limited to a Fed speaker (Waller at 1 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DRI and WGO before the open. There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

The market looks to be giving a little follow-through to Thursday’s move. With no news today, the apparent stoppage of the President’s economic agenda (major political news), and quadruple witching happening today, don’t be surprised by a lackluster market. Keep an eye out for pinning or even volatility as the afternoon hits. And don’t forget it’s Friday or that next week is Christmas week, which is likely to be low-volume and dull as traders take time off. So, pay yourself, get ready for the weekend news cycle, and consider whether you will be trading next week.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas this morning. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bulls Loved Fed But More Data Ahead

December 16, 2021 by Ed Carter

Wednesday was quite a ride. Markets opened flat, sold off a little the first half-hour, and then bobbed along the lows until 2 pm. However, the Fed announcement led to a sharp rally and pullback that left stocks flat going into Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. It was at that point that the bulls ignited a tremendous rally for the last 1.5 hours of the day, going out very near the highs. This left us with strong, white candles with small lower wicks. In addition, all 3 major indices printed Morning Star patterns. On the day, SPY gained 1.51% (closing within cents of a new all-time high close), DIA gained 1.02%, and QQQ gained 2.24%. The VXX fell almost 7% to 20.40 and T2122 shot back up to the mid-range at 51.62. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.455% and Oil (WTI) closed up over 1% to $71.55/barrel.

As mentioned, the market loved the data the Fed released and what the group and especially what Fed Chair Powell had to say. For one thing, as expected, the Fed is doubling the speed of their bond-buying taper ($15 billion in Nov., $30 billion in Dec., and now $60 billion/month in Jan.). In addition, they announced that they expect 3 interest rate hikes in 2022, followed by 2 more in 2024. Lastly, the Fed reduced its 2022 GDP forecast to 5.5% (versus 5.9% as of September), which is still 2% above consensus economist forecasts. On a side note, the Chief Economist of the Conference Board told Bloomberg that they are forecasting 3.5% but would add another half of a percent if the President’s “Build Back Better” budget and spending passes.

The Bank of England saw the Fed’s shift to focusing on inflation and said “hold my beer” as it announced an unexpected rate hike. The move increased the UK interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. The most shocking thing about the move was that it came the same day the country announced a new record number of covid cases as the omicron variant sweeps across the UK.

In earnings news, ACN and JBL beat on both lines. Meanwhile, WOR beat on earnings but came in light on revenue. DAL also announced that it expects to post a pretax quarterly profit as both travel and airfares have increased.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green with Japan (+2.13%) a massive upside outlier. Thailand (+1.33%), Shanghai (+0.75%), and Taiwan (+0.71%) led the main pack higher. Only Australia (-0.43%) and Indonesia (-0.47%) were in the red. In Europe, we see strongly green markets across the region at mid-day. The FTSE (+1.01%), DAX (+1.74%), and CAC (+1.55%) lead the way, but many of the smaller exchanges are up even further. Russia (+3.20%) is an outlier. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing solid gap-up follow-through to the Wednesday Fed rally. The DIA is implying a +0.64% open, the SPY implies a +0.74% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.76% open at this hour. 10-year bond rates are flat and Oil (WTI) is up just a third of a percent in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday includes Nov. Building Permits, Nov. Housing Starts, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Philly Fed Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Nov. Industrial Production (9:15 am), and Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to ACN, JBL, ADBE, and WOR before the open. Then after the close, SCS reports.

The market loved the Fed’s announcement and the bulls charged higher yesterday afternoon. It looks like they are going to follow through this morning, but be aware there is a lot of economic data coming before the open. Being back near the all-time highs is great if you are in the Long camp, but markets have not digested the UK rate hike yet. So, be careful.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Day But Retail Sales and Empire First

December 15, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down Tuesday on higher-than-expected PPI numbers and then put in an indecisive, wide-range day that both retested the T-line (and failed) and the lows from a week ago. All 3 major indices printed Doji or Spinning Top candles, meaning Wednesday’s action is more important than Tuesday’s wavering candle. On the day, SPY lost 0.69%, DIA lost 0.24%, and QQQ lost 1.04%. The VXX rose to 21.93 and T2122 dropped into the oversold territory at 9.96. 10-year bond yields rose slightly to 1.443% and Oil (WTI) fell over a percent to $70.44/barrel.

On Tuesday, the Senate passed a National Debt Ceiling increase of $2.5 trillion (to $31.4 trillion) along party lines, with one Republican absent. This is the level they estimate will cover government spending into 2023. The bill them moved to the House, who took up and passed the measure late last night. The bill then headed to the President for signature before a government exceeded the debt limit today.

Analysts seem to be moving ahead of the Fed as a wave of downgrades hit Tech stocks. This signals that they are now focusing less on growth and more on value as the Fed has now said Inflation is priority number one. Among the names taking a hit after the close were ADBE, DDOG, NET, and ZS. Those stocks all moved significantly lower in premarket trading today.

Mortgage refinancing applications fell 6% for the week, while new home purchase loan applications rose just 1%. This happened as 30-year fixed-rate loan interest rates remained at 3.30%.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed but leaned toward the red side on modest moves. Hong Kong (-0.91%), Shenzhen (-0.73%), and Australia (-0.70%) paced the losses. Meanwhile, Taiwan (+0.35%), led the 5 gainers. In Europe, stocks are mixed, but mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.24%), DAX (+0.28%), and CAC (+0.67%) are typical of the spread. However, there are a couple of outliers like Denmark (+1.07%) and Russia (+1.05%) in early afternoon trading. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to an open just on the red side of flat. The DIA is implying a -0.01% open, the SPY implies a -0.04% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.22% ahead of morning data. 10-year bond yields are up to 1.45% and Oil (WTI) is down 1.2% in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes Nov. Retail Sales, Nov. Import/Export index, and NY Empire State Mfg. Index (all at 8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10 am), Fed Interest Rate Projections, Fed Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision, and Fed Statement (all at 2 pm), and FED Press Conference (2:30 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to ABM, TTC, and REVG before the open. Then after the close, LEN, TCOM, NDSN, and HEI report.

All eyes (and most wagging tongues) will be focused on the Fed today, with widespread expectations that they double the pace of bond-buying taper. However, for my money, the $64,000 question is what they say about how soon we could see a rate hike. Many pundits now expect the statement or press conference to reveal they will end taper in Q1 and might do the first rate hike in March. (This would be at least a quarter ahead of current projections.)

Expect volatility and whipsaw action after the Fed. So, don’t rush into trades before the afternoon Fed news. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Just keep consistently taking profits when you have them and move your stops in your favor. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade carefully, and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge in place.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TZA, NEE, AKAM, PFE, TSCO, TSN, MDLZ, BAC, TMSU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Meeting Starts and New EU Online Rules

December 14, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat to just slightly lower on Monday. However, stocks then proceeded to sell off until 11:30 am before bouncing along the bottom the rest of the day. This took us back down into the range of the recent week in the large caps, but the QQQ gave up last week’s range. All 3 major indices printed ugly black candles. On the day, SPY lost 0.89%, DIA lost 0.89%, and QQQ lost 1.44%. The VXX rose 4% to 21.64 and T2122 (4-week New High/Low Ratio) dropped to 32.51. T2108 (Percent of stocks above their 40sma) fell to 28%, indicating there are relatively few stocks holding the market up. 10-year bond yields dropped to 1.414% and Oil (WTI) fell to $71.13/barrel.

The so-called “meme stocks” took another beating Monday. AMC lost over 15% and GME lost almost 14%. BBBY lost “only” 6.5% on the day. This brings AMC and GME’s total loss for the month to over 30% each. BBBY is faring a bit better for December, down only 9.7%.

Bloomberg reports that the EU Parliament passed new rules, limiting online content and advertising on Monday evening. These rules would make significant changes to the way online behemoths operate. Among the new rules are one that would put major limitations on advertising to minors, prohibit companies from requiring users to submit to online tracking, and would require content providers to take down any posts or materials the EU deems illegal. Sources told Bloomberg that the entire Parliament must now ratify the rules in January, but that the entire EU Parliament is expected to go for even more restrictions that would prohibit all online targeted advertising. GOOG, AAPL, and FB could see major changes if this happens and every major advertiser might be impacted if this altered marketing effectiveness.

Last night, on the eve of the Fed meeting, the CEO of MS called for the FOMC to raise rates soon. He also said, “the Fed is 10 rate increases behind normal (where they should be)”. It is widely expected that the FOMC will double the speed of their bond-buying taper. If they do, this will conclude during Q1. The MS CEO seemed to be calling for a rate increase by March, which would be months sooner than the market currently has priced in and quarters ahead of previous Fed guidance. (A CNBC survey is predicting the first rate hike in June.)

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side, with only two exceptions, but on mostly modest moves. Hong Kong (-1.33%), Taiwan (-0.95%), and Malaysia (-0.93%) paced the losses. In Europe, stocks are more mixed at mid-day, again on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.46%), DAX +0.07%), and CAC (+0.05%) are fairly typical in the region, with only Denmark (-1.17%) as an outlier. As of 7:30 am US Futures point toward a slightly lower open. The DIA implies a +0.08% open, the SPY implies a -0.11% open, and the QQQ is implying a -0.42% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields and Oil is flat in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday is limited to Nov. PPI (8:30 am). There are no major earnings reports scheduled for the day. However, as mentioned above, today is the beginning of the December Fed meeting.

Global markets seem to be trying to hold ground waiting to see just what FOMC says on Wednesday afternoon. This “wait and see” stance is likely to make for a dead market today and Wednesday morning. However, it also can magnify the impacts of other news like omicron, politics, etc. So, just be prepared for a market similar to how Naval pilots describe night patrol flights…hours of boredom punctuated with moments (landings) of high anxiety.

Take your time. Don’t rush into trades the first minutes of the day. Stick to your trade rules and on managing the things you can control. Just keep consistently taking profits when you have them and move your stops in your favor. When you’re wrong, admit it and take your loss. (That’s why we set stops.) Trade carefully, and continue to think twice before holding through earnings…especially without a hedge in place.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CNC, TMUS, COST, XLRE, TSLA, TSN, PFE, AMC, ZION, TZA, SQQQ, PTON. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching