futures Archives - Page 68 of 128 - Hit & Run Candlesticks

Gas Flows Again As PPI and Claims On Deck

May 13, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Wednesday, all the major indices gapped lower for the second straight day after Inflation came in higher than expected according to the April CPI (+$.2% vs +3.6% est.). The bears gave us follow-through to the downside the rest of the day, with stocks closing near their lows. The gave us ugly black candles in all 3 major indices, with only the SPY printing a candle signal (Bearish Doji Continuation Pattern). On the day, DIA lost 2.02%, SPY lost 2.12%, and QQQ lost 2.59%. VXX shot over 17% higher to 48.40 and T2122 fell deeper into the oversold territory to 3.92. 10-year bond yields spiked higher to 1.695% and Oil (WTI) rose just under nine-tenths of a percent to $65.85/barrel.

The Colonial pipeline, closed by the cyberattack, restarted operations on Wednesday evening. The company said it will be back to full capacity within 24 hours, but that it might take a few days for the entire fuel supply chain to get back to normal. This came after the weekly crude oil inventories saw a drawdown (and gasoline inventories saw a spike since refineries had no place to ship with the pipeline down).

In interesting crypto news, Elon Musk made headlines related to Bitcoin again. This time, 3 months after the company announced it had purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and less than two months after announcing it will allow customers to buy their cars using Bitcoin, TSLA has suspended vehicle purchases using the cryptocurrency. This comes after the Musk claimed concern over the increased use of fossil fuels in Bitcoin mining. However, such mining has always been very electric-intensive and most electricity has always been produced with fossil fuels. So, nothing has really changed since the start of the year, when TSLA moved the opposite direction. Overnight, Bitcoin was down 12% and there were sympathy losses by other cryptocurrencies.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,586,136 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 597,785. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 37,818 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 644 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). After the close, a scientific report was published showing that the PFE-BNTX vaccine is 90% effective against several variants, including the main UK variant. However, the Indian 617 variant (double mutation) was not tested. The CDC also reported that 28 cases of blood-clotting (out of 8.7 million shots given) have resulted from the JNJ vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 161,139,255 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,347,034 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as it is believed that India has peaked. The world average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 749,588 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,739 new deaths per day. As said, India appears to have made it past the peak of the recent surge. The government in Delhi reported that only one hospital called pleading for oxygen in the last 24 hours (as opposed to dozens and dozens per day previously). Test positivity rate is also down to a third of what it was two weeks ago. Still, the country reported over 362,000 new cases Thursday, which is huge, but far below the 414,000 record of less than a week ago (May 7) and is trending the right direction.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly red across the board. Japan (-2.49%), Hong Kong (-1.81%), and Thailand (-1.51%) led the way lower, but losses were over a percent region-wide. In Europe, markets are mostly in the red as well, with just a couple small exceptions as of mid-day. The FTSE (-2.04%), DAX (-1.37%), and CAC (-1.03%) lead the losses, with the CAC being most typical of the rest of the continent for now. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to mixed and modest open. The DIA is implying a -0.47% open, the SPY implying a -0.20% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.16% open. However, that is in front of Jobless Claims and Producer Inflation data in an hour.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday includes April PPI and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am) and 2 Fed speakers (Waller at 1 pm and Bullard at 4 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include BABA, ARKO, BILI, BAM, KELYA, EYE, and NICE before the open. Then, after the close, ABNB, DDS, FTCH, FOA, PLT, and DIS report.

With the fuel pipeline coming back online overnight, one of the big drivers of market fear has been reduced, if not eliminated. However, the main issue remains inflation fear (or rather fear that the Fed will need to tighten rates sooner than they have consistently said they would). So, based on yesterday’s out-sized CPI data, it is reasonable to expect the PPI number to also be higher than expected. This will give the bears more ammunition. With that said, markets are very oversold in the short-term and the major indicies (at least the DIA and QQQ) may be at a level where they can find some support.

Again, remember that you don’t have to trade every day…and you certainly don’t have to try to predict the reversal. Waiting for it to play out and then just following the trend is the higher probability play. Respect potential support and resistance levels, but don’t assume they will hold. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Market is Watching Inflation Data

May 12, 2021 by Ed Carter

All the major indices gapped down hard on Tuesday, led by Oil names, following up on Monday’s bearish candle signals. However, from there we got a mixed bag. The bulls charged back with vengeance in the QQQ, erasing a 2% gap down by midday and then chopping sideways at Monday’s closing level. However, the SPY chopped sideways all day after its gap down to end up as an indecisive Doji. However, the DIA gapped down and then kept going before starting its sideways chop, ending as an ugly black candle. On the day, SPY lost 0.88%, DIA lost 1.39%, and QQQ lost 0.14% as high-tech names rejected the gap. The VXX gained over 7.6% to end at 41.18 and T21122 fell like a rock into the oversold territory at 15.42. 10-year bond yields rose again to 1.62% and Oil (WTI) was also up two-thirds of a percent to $65.36/barrel, and Copper closed at an all-time high as inflation fears and the pipeline cyberattack continues to sway markets.

Localized gasoline shortages are starting to kick-in across the East coast. 5-hour lines in a few places as overall supplies haven’t been majorly impacted. The problem is one of logistics with plenty of supply available at gulf-coast refineries. However, that is not where the end-users are located. Worst yet, truck and rail capacity is paltry compared to pipelines. So, if Colonial does not get its pipeline network back online soon, then refineries will need to cut production with no spare storage capacity available.

In miscellaneous market news, TSLA sales in China fell 27% in April, with global sales falling 12% for the month. AMZN won an appeal in an EU court (after the lower court had ruled the company had gotten an illegal tax advantage from Luxenbourg. So, the company will not need to pay the EU the $303 million in taxes the lower court had ruled was unpaid. All eyes are on Consumer Price data this morning as markets expect wild inflation numbers for the month.

Related to the virus, US infections are falling again after plateauing at a level from the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,550,115 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 596,946. However, the number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 39,254 new cases per day (the lowest number since September). Deaths are still mostly plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 635 per day (the lowest number since July 2020). After the close, the CDC announced that over 46% of the US populations have had at least one shot, with 35% now fully vaccinated. Still, the number of shots per day continues to drop as only about 1.5 million shots were administered (down from a high of 4.4 million), with many states not even ordering their full allotment of vaccine.

Globally, the numbers rose to 160,398,044 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,333,548 deaths. The trends are slightly better again as we have seen a slowing in the rate of increase no that India is believed to have peaked. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 762,953 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,850 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red again. Taiwan (-4.11%) was a major outlier, but Japan (-1.61%), South Korea (-1.49%) are more typical of the region. On the plus side, Hong Kong (+0.78%) and Shenzhen (+0.70%) were positive. In Europe, markets are more mixed and even lean to the green at this hour. The FTSE (+0.41%), DAX (+0.26%), and CAC (-0.09%) are typical of the modest moves seen as of mid-day. As of 7:45 am, US Futures are pointing to a down open. The DIA is implying a -0.33% open, the SPY implying a -0.36% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.58% open. However, that is in from of the CPI data.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes April CPI (8:30 am), Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), USDA World Ag Supply-Demand Est. (noon), 10-yr Note Auction (1 pm), Apr. Fed. Budget Bal. (2 pm) and 3 Fed speakers (Clarida at 9 am, Bostic at 1 pm, Harker at 1:30 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include APG, ARCO, and WWW before the open. Then, after the close, AMRK, DOX, COMP, WISH, CPNG, and VRM report.

The cyberattack on the US infrastructure is still giving the market chills as we brace for an inflation number that could give the bears fuel. Still, with expectations being that we will see the hottest inflation gain in over a decade (+3.6% on headline number), there is a chance that a slightly better than expected number helps the bulls. Yesterday’s big gap and then volatility leaves this a tough market to trade. With all that said, we still remain near all-time highs in an uptrend (at least in the large-caps) with the mid-term pullback in the QQQs still placing us just 5% from the all-time highs.

Once again I want to remind you that you don’t have to trade every day. Remember, that you set a stop for a reason and that there is no law saying you have to stick with a long (or short) if the market conditions change. Respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. If you’re not sure of the trend, stay out of the market until you do have a handle on it. As always, keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OLN, TMUS, TSN, FCX, DDD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Bearish Signals And Fears Point Lower

May 11, 2021 by Ed Carter

The bears took control right from the open on Monday. And despite some intraday volatility, that’s the way markets closed as well. There was a massive rotation out of the tech sector as all the FAAMGT stocks took multi-percent hits. For the day, the SPY printed a Bearish Engulfing, the DIA printed a Shooting Star type, and the QQQ printed a big ugly Evening Star pattern. All 3 closed on their lows. On the day, SPY lost 0.98%, DIA gained 0.04%, and QQQ lost a whopping 2.52%. The VXX was only up 4% to 38.29 and T2122 fell well out of the overbought area to 59.82. 10-year bond yields rose t o 1.6074% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $64.82/barrel.

Monday afternoon, the pipeline company (Colonial) that was shut down over last weekend by a cyberattack said its goal is to have service restored by the end of the week. RDS.A (one of the owners of Colonial) told reporters Monday that it is too early to tell how much impact the shutdown will have on product flow. The Wall Street Journal reported that this is the second major ransomware attack on the Energy sector with the first coming last year impacting a major Natural Gas pipeline network that the Department of Homeland Security did not announce and has not named. For what it is worth, the CEO of cloud and cybersecurity provider NET told CNBC that the world is seeing an unparalleled number of attacks as hackers are throwing everything but the kitchen sink against business customers right now.

A couple days ago, it was reported the birth rate in the US was down during 2020. Now, China has reported the slowest population growth in decades. Their census found a 0.53% growth rate per year, but no news was available on whether that was skewed by 2020. In both countries, the populations are aging and this will provide a significant obstacle for the economy (workforce and consumer numbers, spending habits, etc.).

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,515,308 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 595,812. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 40,395 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 648 per day. On Monday the CEO of NVAX told CNN he expects the CDC to approve his company’s vaccine in Q3, just in time to start being used as a booster shot for people that were vaccinated by other company’s vaccines early. While phrased as a positive, this is another delay in their timeline to even ask for approval. In addition, the CDC has not announced if or when boosters will be needed, nor has the agency approved the usage of different brands or types of vaccines. Elsewhere the FDA has approved the PFE-BTNX vaccine for use by 12–15-year-olds.

Globally, the numbers rose to 159,664,402 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,319,534 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 771,610 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,878 new deaths per day. In not so hopeful news, the Philippines has detected its first two cases of the Indian 617 variant. However, on the positive side, India itself has now reported fewer than 400,000 new cases for a second day in a row.

Overnight, Asian markets were strongly in the red, with only China (Shanghai +0.40% and Shenzhen +0.35%) in the green. Taiwan (-3.79%), Japan (-3.08%), and Hong Kong (-2.03%) led to the downside. In Europe, markets are also strongly red across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (-2.20%), DAX (-2.36%), and CAC (-2.05%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap-down follow-through to Mondays bearish candle signals. The DIA is implying a -0.46% open, the SPY implying a -0.79% gap down, and the QQQ implying a gap down of 1.40%.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mar. JOLTS (10 am) and 5 Fed speakers (Williams at 10:30, Brainard at noon, Daly at 1 pm, Bostic at 1:15 pm, and Harker at 2 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AEE, ARMK, HBI, IGT, PRGO, RPRX, and before the open. Then, after the close, BGS, CHK, CNR, DAR, EA, GO, KGC, and VZIO report.

The cyberattack on the US infrastructure is still giving the market chills at the vulnerability of our economy and country. Things are no worse than they were last week, but now we have a reminder right in front of us. The herd of Fed speakers today are likely to continue to recent refrains of “stimulus and loose-money policy is the right plan and the inflation pain will be temporary.” However, it appears recently that Mr. Market is no longer believing the story as rotation out of the recovery names and high-fliers continues. We remain near all-time highs in the large-caps, but it looks like the bears will get to call the tune for a while as the Nasdaq leads the pullback.

Remember, that you set a stop for a reason and that there is no law saying you have to stick with a long if market conditions change. Just respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. Keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Avoid chasing trades you have missed and don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: GIS, SDS, TSN, TZA, RWM. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fuel Cycberattack Remains Top Story

May 10, 2021 by Ed Carter

On Friday, April Payrolls came in dramatically below expectations (+266k vs +1mil est.) and this led to a small gap higher with some follow-through the first hour. However, after that, the grind sideways (with even a bearish lean in the QQQ) lasted the rest of the day. This left the large-caps as big white candles that closed at new all-time highs, but the QQQ ended the day as a Doji still below the range of the previous 3 weeks. On the day, SPY gained 0.73%, DIA gained 0.69%, and QQQ gained 0.81%. The VXX lost more than 5.5% to 36.74 and T2122 spiked back well into the overbought territory at 92.78. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.579% and Oil (WTI) was flat at $64.82/barrel.

On Saturday, a ransomware cyberattack shut down the nations largest fuel pipeline network (which carries 45% of the fuel for the East Coast and Southeast US). While the pipeline company (Colonial Pipeline) is privately held, this report has had impacts across commodity prices, refiners, and other areas of the market. In addition, this attack likely is a follow-up on the supposedly Russian hack of SWI software in early 2020. As of Monday morning, much of the pipeline network remains shut down.

On Saturday night, the old “buy the rumor, sell the news” saying was proven again as Dogecoin fell 30% during Elon Musk’s late-night TV show appear. Must did mention the cryptocurrency in his opening monologue, but then said it was a “hustle.” That event crashed Robinhood crypto trading again as hordes of speculators tried to make it to the exit. On Sunday afternoon, perhaps in damage control mode, one of Musk’s other ventures, privately-held SpaceX announced it has named its Q122 mission “DOGE-1 Mission to the Moon” and will now accept Dogecoin as payment for lunar payloads. If nothing else, Musk certainly has the promotion routine down pat.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,476,781 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 595,812. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 40,686 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 662 per day. As of Sunday, CDC data shows that 58% of adults (and almost 46% of the entire population) have received at least one jab. Although encouraging, it is becoming harder to increase the numbers as vaccine hesitancy and complacency are now very high among those who are in the unvaccinated popluation.

Globally, the numbers rose to 159,030,410 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,308,346 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 777,228 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,853 new deaths per day. Spain partied Sunday as the country’s national curfew was lifted at midnight Saturday. Meanwhile, Asia remains the epicenter, with most if India under lockdown, Sri Lanka reporting record highs, Nepal closing hospital doors due to a lack of oxygen, and Pakistan feeling the impacts as well. In Japan, PM Suga said that although his country is reeling again, he will not cancel the Olympics again and if they are cancelled or pushed-back again it will be up to the Intl. Olympic Comm. to make that decision.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again on modest moves. South Korea (+1.63), Australia (+1.30%), and India (+0.80%) led to the upside while New Zealand (-0.56%), Singapore (-0.56%), and Taiwan (-0.29%) paced the losses. In Europe, we see the same mixed picture as of mid-morning. The FTSE (+0.06%), DAX (-0.19%), and CAC (-0.25%) are tropical of the continent, with Greece (+1.68%) an outlier at this point in the day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a mixed open on modest moves. The DIA is implying a +0.31% open, the SPY implying a flat +0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.34% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include APD, BNTX, DBD, DUK, ENR, ES, GTES, GEO, J, MAR, REV, SGMS, TGNA, TSN, USFD, VTRS, and WB before the open. Then, after the close, ADV, ACM, BHF, ELY, CAPL, G, IFF, NLOK, OXY, RXT, RBLX, SCSC, SPG, UWMC, and WYNN report.

The cyberattack on the US fuel infrastructure and news everywhere of skyrocketing prices seem to be the main drivers in early premarket trading. So, the bears may find some traction early this week. However, Friday’s weak payroll number, and the blow-out earnings numbers we have seen imply that companies having cover for price increases may have a lot more to do with the situation than inflation. Regardless of this situation, we sit at all-time highs in a market that is technically extended. So, the bulls have had the short-term momentum but the bears have the reason in their corner today.

Remember, respect potential support and resistance levels and stay on the right side of the trend. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Avoid chasing trades you have missed and don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NKLA, GM, TLRY, KBH, CLF, LUMN, AG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

April Unemployment and Payrolls on Tap

May 7, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat after Jobless Claims came in better than expected and then vacillated sideways in a range most of the day. However, a rally the last hour took all 3 major indices out near their highs. This left us with strong white candles in all 3 indices and the DIA printed another all-time high close while the SPY is close to challenging the top of its own 3-week range. On the day, SPY gained 0.80%, the DIA gained 0.94%, and the QQQ remains the lowest of the three, but gained 0.75%. The VXX fell half a percent to 38.95 and T2122 fell slightly to 72.07. 10-year bond yields closed flat at 1.57% and Oil (WTI) fell more than a percent to $64.86/barrel.

Late in the day, the Fed published a report that warns investors to watch for significant declines in asset prices as high valuations have stretch markets. However, that did not prevent bulls from driving higher into the close. Also during the day, SEC Chair Gensler told Congress that trading has been “gamified” by features of some brokers like Robinhood. He also reiterated that he has asked SEC staff to investigate the “payment for order flow” system that routes orders through firms like Citadel and VIRT and is now the backbone of online brokers. Finally, he told the House Financial Services Committee that social media hype is a major concern for markets and crypto markets in general are lacking in investor protections (implying regulation may be needed).

After getting hammered Wednesday on the news of their treadmill recall, PTON made a small rebound (+1.4%) on Thursday. Then after hours, the company reported an earnings beat on both lines (albeit with earnings just as a lesser loss than expected). This included a 143% increase in sales, but also announced it will take a $165 million hit due to the recall. Finally, due to the recall, the company has also postponed the planned launch of a cheaper treadmill model that had been scheduled to go on sale at the end of May.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,369,192 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 594,006. The number of new cases has is falling again and are back down to an average of 46,288 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 677 per day. A new Kaiser Foundation survey found that the JNJ vaccine pause last month caused 9% of Americans to change their mind and remain unvaccinated and 7% to say they less likely to want any company’s vaccine. In better news, the CD Vaccine Advisers Committee scheduled a meeting for next week to discuss expanding the approved age ranges for PFE vaccine and follow-up on earlier discussions related to the JNJ blood-clotting issue.

Globally, the numbers rose to 156,784,352 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,272,175 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 793,820 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 12,901 new deaths per day. India reported yet another record of well over 414,000 new cases Friday. They also reported another state (around Goa) where the test positivity rate now exceeds 50%. (The worst part of this is that Goa is a major tourist destination and tourism has not stopped due to religious festivals and holiday plans in that part of the world.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, but overall leaned modestly to the green side. Shenzhen (-1.95%) took the biggest hit and was an outlier. Taiwan (+1.71%) was an outlier to the upside and most exchanges had much more moderate moves. In Europe, with the exception of Greece, markets are strongly green across the board. Among the big 3 exchanges, the FTSE (+0.61%), DAX (+1.31%), and CAC (+0.19%) are all positive so far. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly green open as traders wait on the April Payrolls and Unemployment numbers.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Apr. Nonfarm Payrolls, Apr. Participation Rate, Apr. Avg. Hourly Earnings, and Apr. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am). Major earnings reports on the day include AMCX, AXL, AMRX, ATH, CLMT, CI, SSP, ELAN, FLR, GCI, GLP, GVA, HE, IEP, IBP, ITT, LEA, MODV, QRTEA, SPB, TU, TIXT, and VTR before the open. Then, after the close, UNVR reports.

The bulls found some traction Thursday, but the mega-cap high-tech QQQ still remains in a short-term downtrend and the SPY has yet to break out of its recent range. Payrolls are likely to call the tune for early trading today, but long periods of vacillation, punctuated with bursts of volatility remain the mode of the market. So, continue to be careful, hedged, and/or nimble.

The first rule of successful trading is “don’t lose money,” not “trade every day.” Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. When you do trade, respect potential support and resistance levels, but you don’t have to assume they will hold. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success. Finally, remember it’s Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas today (Rick is out). You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims Today UK Raises Forecast

May 6, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher marginally at the open Wednesday. From there, the large-caps vacillated sideways all day, while the QQQ dols off after the morning grind. This left us with a shooting star type candle (new all-time high close) in the DIA, and black candles in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, SPY gained 0.03%, DIA gained 0.23%, and QQQ lost 0.34%. The VXX fell 2.5% to 39.19 and T2122 rose, but remains outside the overbought territory at 75.14. 10-year bond yields fell significantly again to 1.57% and Oil (WTI) fell six-tenths of a percent to $65.30/barrel.

PTON lost 14.56% on Wednesday after announcing the recall of all their treadmills due to the risk of death. During the afternoon, SEC Commissions Gensler told Congress that he has a team studying the gamification of trading caused by features of brokerages like Robinhood. He also raised concern about the flood of orders that are routed through Citadel, VIRT, and a few other “order buyers.” He followed this by stating that he has asked the SEC staff to solicit public comment (a pre-requisite step to changing regulations on brokerages). So, action may be on its way…slowly.

After the close, Fed member Clarida told CNBC that he feels the Fed is a long way from the goals they have set and are therefore a long way from tightening policy (regardless of Treasury Sec. Yellen’s Tuesday statement). While certainly not definitive, this is an indication the Fed is signaling it will remain independent (or at least wants to be seen as independent) of comments and opinions of government entities. In unrelated central-bank news, the Bank of England has announced that it expects UK growth to surge 7.25% this year (a 2% increase over the previous 5% forecast and slightly above market analyst estimates for the revision).

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,321,244 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 593,148. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below last summer’s peak to an average of 47,945 new cases per day. However, deaths are still plateauing at the new lower levels, now at 718 per day. MRNA announced after the close that unpublished early testing from an ongoing trial is indicating that a booster shot of their vaccine is showing promising immunity results against the South African and Brazilian variants. (No word on the “617” double-mutation variant that is ravaging India now.) In no so good news, the CDC announced Wednesday that the number of vaccine doses administered is now 20% lower than one week ago, despite more than adequate supply. This problem is highlighted when CVS announced they are now taking walk-ins for vaccination at more than 8,300 retail locations.

Globally, the numbers rose to 155,922,329 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,258,293 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases seems to have topped again at the new all-time peak and is now rounding over at 800,022 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, may also be rounding over again at 13,085 new deaths per day. The catastrophe in India continues as the country reported yet another peak of over 412,000 cases (which is staggering since most experts believe this to be an undercount by a magnitude of at least 3 times). However, in some good news, a study out of Qatar shows the existing PFE-BNTX vaccine is effective against the same 2 variants, but like with the MRNA news, no mention of the news “double-mutation” (617) variant.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the green side. Japan (+1.80%) and Thailand (+1.46%) led the gains while Shenzhen (-1.58%) and New Zealand (-0.75%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are also mixed and mostly flat on very modest moves so far today. The FTSE (+0.21%) is the exception, making a bigger move on the new BOE growth forecast. However, the DAX (+0.05%) and CAC (+0.07%) are more typical as of mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, if slightly green open (at least before economic data releases). The DIA is implying a +0.15% open, the SPY implying a +0.13% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Thursday is limited to Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am) and 4 Fed speakers (Williams at 9 am, Bostic and Mester at 1 pm, and Kaplan at 6:05 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include GOLF, AHCO, ADNT, AES, ABEV, BUD, APTV, MT, ARW, AVYA, BLL, BDX, BV, BIP, BLDR, CNQ, CAH, CNP, COMM, XRAY, UFS, SATA, EPC, EPAM, AVRG, EXPI, FIS, FLIR, HAIN, HWM, HII, IIVI, NSIT, IRM, K, KL, KTB, LIN, MGA, MMS, MDU, NIDD, MRNA, MUR, NJR, NLSN, NOMD, NRG, OGE, OPCH, PAE, PZZA, PENN, PRMW, PWR, REGN, SBH, SRLP, SUN, TPR, TRGP, TEN, TMX, BLD, THS, VNTR, VIAC, VSTO, VNT, W. WCC, and ZTS before the open. Then, after the close, AL, AQN, LNT, AIG, COLD, AMN, BECN, BKD, CVNA, ED, CVET, BAP, CWK, DBX, ENDP, EOG, EXPE, FND, FNF, FRG, IAC, IHRT, MTZ, MCK, MTD, MCHP, MNST, MSI, NFG, NWSA, OTEX, CNXN, PTON, PFSI, POST, QDEL, RGA, REZI, ROKU, SEM, SWX, SFM, SQ, TDS, TDC, TSE, and USM report.

The bulls tried and were met with immediate resistance Wednesday. The high-tech Nasdaq was protected especially strongly by the bears as the QQQ now looks to be in a definite pullback and trying to test support. Meanwhile, the large-caps remain in that sideways range they have been stuck in for going on 3 weeks. As I’ve said, indecision and chop are not a good environment for most traders. So, continue to be very careful, hedged, and/or nimble.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. The first rule of successful trading is “don’t lose money,” not “trade every day.” So, respect potential support and resistance levels, but you don’t have to assume they will hold. Just keep locking in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. It is consistency that is the key to long-term trading success.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Yellen Walks Back Remark as Doge Soars

May 5, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down Tuesday and followed through to the downside in the morning, especially in the high-tech-heavy Nasdaq. From that point forward there was a very slow, gradual rally the rest of the day. This left us with gap-down Hammer-type candles in all 3 major indices. Both the large-cap indices remain in the recent range, but the QQQ gapped down below that range. On the day, SPY lost 0.59%, DIA gained 0.11%, and QQQ lost 1.80%. The VXX gained almost 3.8% to 40.21 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory to 65.48. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.582% and Oil (WTI) rose about 2% to $65.76/barrel.

During the day, Treasury Sec. Yellen told a conference that US interest rates may need to be raised modestly to keep economic growth from overheating after the trillions of dollars in stimulus. However, she followed up quickly by saying these were needed investments and will improve our competitiveness and economic growth in the longer run. Interestingly, while this news was widely publicized immediately, the market did not react strongly to the downside, despite the implied threat of inflation. Nonetheless, afterhours Yellen clarified her remarks saying she was not predicting or recommending a Fed rate hike. Instead, she said was just offering her opinion.

Crypto mania has hit again, this time in Doge as the currency rose 35% Tuesday and is up another 20% in premarket today. The surge in orders has crashed Robinhood crypto trading again this morning. Much of the enthusiasm comes from an Elon Musk tweet touting his appearance on Saturday Night Live on May 8, referring to himself as “The Dogefather.” So, speculators are hoping he will say something on the show that will bring in new buyers of Doge tokens.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,274,659 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 592,409. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 49,396 new cases per day. However, deaths have plateaued again, now at 718 per day. On Thursday, President Biden announced a new national goal that at least 70% of Americans have at least on vaccination shot by July 4 and also to have over half the population (160 million) fully vaccinated by then. This goal anticipates a drop-off in demand for vaccine. However, vaccine reluctance will still be a major hurdle with current vaccination rates down 50% from just 3 weeks ago.

Globally, the numbers rose to 155,061,321 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,243,519 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 805,993 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising again at 13,192 new deaths per day. Although India remains the global epicenter, the entire Asian region is feeling the impact of the current surge from variants. In Osaka Japan, ICU beds are at 99% capacity as of Tuesday. Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka are all also implementing measures to get more oxygen as the wave spreads to their countries.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red. Thailand (-2.14%) was an outlier, but Japan (-0.83%), Shanghai (-0.81%), and Hong Kong (-0.49%) were typical of the region. However, in Europe, markets are strongly green across the board so far Wednesday. The FTSE (+1.17%), DAX (+1.33%), and CAC (+0.80%) are typical, but some of the smaller exchanges have rallied twice as hard as the majors. It appears the catalyst was business activity (Purchasing Manager’s Index) and good earnings. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are also pointing to the upside. The DIA is implying a +0.17% open, the SPY implying a +0.29% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.50% open.

The major economic news scheduled for Wednesday includes ADP Employment report (8:15 am), Services PMI (9:45 am), ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and 3 Fed speakers (Evans at 9:30 am, Rosengren at 11 am, and Mester at noon). Major earnings reports on the day include ABC, AAQQ, GOLD, BDC, BWA, BRKR, CDW, CERN, CLH, CNHI, DNB, EMR, EXC, FLEX, FTS, GM, HLT, HFC, JLL, NI, ODP, OMI, PSN, PFGC, PNW, PEG, REYN, SMG, SRE, SBGI, SITE, SPR, SGRY, TT, VRTV, WAT, and WRK before the open. Then, after the close, ADT, ALB, APA, ATO, EQH, BKNG, CENTA, CENT, CF, CLW, CTSH, CNDT, CXW, CW, DCP, EC, NVST, EQT, WTRG, ETSY, FLT, FMC, FOXA, GIL, GDDY, HUBG, LHCG, LBTYA, LNC, LUMN, MRO, VAC, MELI, MET, NUS, PTVE, PARR, PYPL, PRI, PRIM, QRVO, RCII, RSG, RKT, RYI, SJI, STN, TRMB, TPC, TWLO, UBER, UGI, UNM, YELL, and ZNGA report.

The bears made a push Tuesday morning but never managed to move the large caps outside of their recent range. Then the bulls mounted a slow, but consistent, rally the rest of the day. This left us well up from the lows and (with the exception of the QQQ) back in the middle of that sideways range. With the way Tuesday ended and the way pre-markets are looking now, it appears the bulls will make the first move today. However, day-to-day chop is still the main characteristic of this market. So, continue to be careful.

Remember, you don’t have to trade every day or every week. Respect potential support and resistance levels. Stick with the trend (when you have one), but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RHI, SYF, RIG, WETF, WFC, UEC, XOM, LPX, DHI, DISH. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Great Earnings Continue

May 4, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped up about half a percent Monday to start the new month. However, that was it for the large-caps as they ground sideways in a tight range after the open. The QQQ faded the gap and then some before starting its own tight-range sideways grind about 11am. This left us with indecisive candles in the SPY and DIA and a small Bearish Engulfing candle in the QQQ. However, all 3 major indices remained inside the tight range of the last week. On the day, SPY gained 0.21%, DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ lost 0.53%. The VXX fell 3.5% to 38.75 and T2122 climbed back to the edge of overbought territory at 80.65. After having climbed in premarket, 10-year bond yields fell during the day to 1.601% and Oil (WWTI) rose over 1% to $64.44/barrel.

After hours, US announced it will pay a $9 million fine to settle an accounting fraud charge. In other legal news, a trial began in WV with local authorities suing the 3 major drug distributors (MCK, ABC, and CAH) for failing to better monitor distribution of opioids as required by federal law. (The companies shipped 36 million doses to a community of 100,000 over an 8-year period.) Also, the AAPL vs Epic Games trial got underway with opening arguments from both sides on Monday. The trial will greatly impact whether AAPL can continue to prohibit alternatives to the AAPL App Store for devices in the APPL device userbase. Epic is arguing the 30% commission and arbitrary app approval process are wrong. AAPL is arguing it needs control because it does not want to devolve into being like the Android marketplace.

PFE reported beats on both the top and bottom lines this morning. The company said it will file for full (non-emergency) approval of its Covid vaccine by the end of the month. If approved, this would allow the company to market the vaccine directly to consumers. UA also posted beats on both lines and raised guidance for the full year. CVS joined the crowd, also beating on revenue and earnings as testing, vaccinations and prescriptions all outpaced forecast.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,230,992 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 591,514. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 50,665 new cases per day. However, deaths have plateaued again, now at 716 per day. In some good news, for perspective, US new cases and deaths are both less than 20% of their peak values in early January of this year. In addition, 40% of adults and 70% of all seniors are now fully-vaccinated. However, the CDC reports that demand for vaccine has also plummeted 27% and each day tens of thousands of available vaccination appointments are going unused daily in the US.

Globally, the numbers rose to 154,241,017 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,228,632 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 812,341 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,336 new deaths per day. India continues to be the current epicenter of the pandemic with yet another Indian state entering lockdown. This comes as a new tragedy happened Monday, when another hospital ran out of oxygen, causing at least 20 deaths. However, international aid is now starting to arrive (though national logistics is very challenging in the country) and that includes a ramping up of India’s vaccination program which was expanded to everyone over age 18 yesterday.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed. New Zealand (+1.12%) was an outlier to the upside, with South Korea (+0.64%) and Hong Kong (+0.70%) being more typical of gainers. Taiwan (-1.68%), India (-0.94%), and Japan (-0.83%) paced the losers on the day. In Europe, markets are also mixed so far today. The FTSE (+0.83%) and CAC (+0.75%) are leading the gainers, but the DAX (-0.10%) and a number of the smaller exchanges remain on the red side of flat. Denmark (-0.88%) is an outlier to the downside. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat and mixed open. The DIA is implying a +0.05% open, while the SPY is implying a -0.11% open and the QQQ is implying a -0.35% open at this point.

The major economic news scheduled for Tuesday is limited to Mar. Imports/Exports and Mar. Trade Balance (both at 8:30 am), Mar., Factory Orders (10 am), and a Fed speaker (Daly at 1 pm). Major earnings reports on the day include AME, APO, ARCB, ARNC, BHC, BERY, BR, BEP, BG, CWH, CTLT, CRL, CQP, LNG, COP, CMI, CVS, D, DD, ETN, EXPD, RACE, BEN, IT, GPN, HSC, HSIC, IDXX, INCY, INGR, KKR, LCII, LDOS, LGIH, LPX, MPC, MLM, NXST, PFE, SEE, SYY, TRI, UA, UAA, VIRT, VSH, VMC, WMG, WLK, XYL, ZBRA, and ZBH before the open. Then, after the close, ATVI, AKAM, ALC, AMCR, AFG, ANDE, ANET, AIZ, BKH, CZR, CTVA, DK, DVN, ENLC, PEAK, HLF, HI, JAZZ, KAR, LYFT, MANT, DOOR, MTCH, MCFE, MCY, PKI, PXD, PAA, PRU, RYAM, SMCI, TMUS, TTEC, VRSK, WU, XLNX, and ZG report.

Markets continue to feel as if the bulls have run out of energy to push higher. However, the bears have no traction either. This leaves us in a tight-range sideways grind. This is a very difficult market to trade as the day-to-day chop crushes traders, even as the indices go nowhere. Even with blowout earnings and generally raised outlooks, the bulls have not been able to run lately. So, be careful on the long side. Still, the trend has not changed direction. We do not have a bearish trend. So, also don’t be too quick to take shorts either. Stuck between the trend and the chop is a tough place to make money.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SHIP, BIG, MDLZ, JNJ, FAST, DHI, NOK. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Futures Look to Open May Positive

May 3, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped down on Friday. The large-caps then ground sideways in a tight range the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the QQQ faded the gap and then slowly sold off back to the gap price again. This left us with gap-down Doji in the large-caps and a gap-down Inverted Hammer type candle in the QQQ to end the month. On the day, SPY and QQQ both lost 0.66% and the DIA lost 0.48%. The VXX gained 4% to 40.16 and T2122 fell out of the overbought territory back into mid-range at 49.03. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.626% and Oil (WTI) dropped 2.34% to $63.49/barrel.

A few tidbits came out of the Berkshire Woodstock annual meeting. Warren Buffett announced a 20% increase in BRK operating profit while announcing the company share buybacks have and will continue. He also said that stock prices are too high and decried Robinhood as being an enabler of the public’s gambling habits. He says that has led to far too many “short-term bets” and has hurt BRK (such as the way short-term option activity in AAPL hurt the BRK position). He also said when he retires, Greg Abel will succeed him as CEO. Meanwhile, Charlie Munger (Buffett’s number two) decried Bitcoin as “disgusting” and a bane to society.

In misc. news, overnight and in pre-market activity, bond prices rose again. The 10-year yield is up to 1.642%. VZ is considering selling the dog entity it created by merging AOL and Yahoo Finance. Finally, over the weekend GOP Senators said an infrastructure deal is possible and the President seemed to embrace that sentiment although the sides are well over $1 trillion apart.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 33,180,441 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 591,062. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 50,251 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 719 per day. This has led to the lowest weekly aggregate number of deaths so far this year. In great news, new cases have dropped dramatically (17% week-on-week). However, the CDC has reported that vaccinations rates have also plummeted since the JNJ vaccine pause last month and are raising real concern over whether the US will reach herd immunity later than projected or even at all.

Globally, the numbers rose to 153,565,250 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,218,006 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 809,729 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,366 new deaths per day. India has been reporting more than 400,000 new cases per day (one-third of the global new cases) as of the weekend. Foreign aid (especially oxygen and related equipment) has started arriving, but deaths remain at the highs and one state of the country (the one encompassing New Delhi) has announced a 1-week total lockdown.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side with just 3 exchanges staying just on the green side of flat. Taiwan (-1.96%), Hong Kong (-1.28%), and Singapore (-1.04%) led the losses. In Europe, just the opposite is true so far today as markets are mostly green. Russia (-0.76%) is the exception to the rule. The FTSE (+0.12%), DAX (+0.61%), and CAC (+0.50%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a green open. The DIA is implying a +0.62% gap, the SPY implying a +0.52% gap, and the QQQ implying a +0.29% open.

There is no major economic news scheduled for Monday. Major earnings reports on the day include AMG, CAN, ENBL, EPD, EL, GPRE, ITRI, LDI, ON, and WEC before the open. Then after the close, AWK, AGR, CAR, BWXT, CC, CR, CVI, FANG, FLS, NSP, LEG, MOS, NTR, OGS, QGEN, RBC, REGI, SANM, SCI, RIG, TA, WMB, WWD, and XPO report.

Markets seem poised to start May on a higher open. However, the short-term trend is clearly an indecisive sideways grind for the last couple of weeks. Even with blowout earnings and generally raised outlooks for the coming quarter, the bulls have not been able to run lately. On the other hand, the bears have also been unable to make any headway without bad earnings or a major story to hang their hats on. So, for now, it seems the market is undecided and hard to trade with no trend in place.

Remember that you don’t have to trade every day or every week. That is one of the great benefits of trading as a career. Respect potential support and resistance levels, but don’t just assume they will hold either. Predicting is a sucker’s game. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No trade ideas for Monday. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Great Earnings Galore But Futures Down

April 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Thursday on the prior night’s earnings beats from AAPL and FB. Stocks the proceeded to fade the gap and spent the rest of the day working back toward to gap open. This left us with Hanging Man candles in all 3 major indices (white body on DIA and the other two black bodies). However, the SPY was at another all-time high close. On the day, SPY gained 0.62%, DIA gained 0.66%, and QQQ gained 0.36%. The VXX was essentially flat at 38.58 and T2122 fell ever so slightly to 91.05. 10-year bond yields rose to 1.636% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.69% to $64.92/barrel. Copper also reached a 10-year high.

After the close AMZN continued the trend for big tech by smashing expectations with a 44% sales increase for the quarter and earnings that beat estimates by 65% ($15.79 vs $9.54 est. per share). The online retail giant also said they forecast no fall-off in the pandemic-driven surge in sales. However, while TWTR did post slight beats on both lines, they rained on the parade somewhat by posting a miss on user numbers and lower than hoped forward guidance as well as not beating as big as the other big tech names.

Early Friday, the executive arm of the EU opened a new antitrust investigation of the AAPL App Store. This one is based on music platform SPOT complaining about the AAPL license agreements. The EU announced that “the mandatory use of Apple’s own in-app purchase mechanism for apps distributed through the store likely violates EU antitrust regulations.” This adds to AAPL’s antitrust problems with Epic Games having filed suit on the same grounds in the US.

Related to the virus, US infections are rising again after plateauing at a level above the fall level. The totals have risen to 32,983,695 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 588,337. The number of new cases has ticked lower again and are back down below the peak level from last summer to an average of 55,773 new cases per day. The same is true of deaths, which are trending down again, now at 727 per day. This has led to the lowest weekly aggregate number of deaths so far this year.

Globally, the numbers rose to 151,240,576 confirmed cases and the confirmed deaths are now at 3,182,092 deaths. The trends have reversed and are now trending toward trouble again as we have seen significant upticks recently. The world’s average new cases continue to rise and is now at the all-time peak and with 829,052 new cases per day. Mortality, which lags, is also rising sharply again at 13,448 new deaths per day. France announced a 4-step process to end its lockdown with the first step starting on May 19 with a goal of the final lifting happening June 30. Japan reported its highest number of new cases since January as the country tries to prepare for the delayed Olympic games. Following in the steps of PFE, MRNA president said patients using their vaccine will also likely need a booster 9-12mo after completing the second dose. However, in more hopeful news, in India, the first shipments of foreign oxygen-related aid have arrived.

Overnight, Asian markets were red across the board. Hong Kong (-1.97%) and India (-1.77%) paced the losses. The same story seems to be taking shape in Europe so far today. Moves are generally modest, with the smallest moves coming from two of the big 3 exchanges with the FTSE (-0.17%) and DAX (+0.04%), which is the only green on the continent. The CAC (-0.35%) is closer to typical of all the other exchanges. As of 7:30am, US Futures are also pointing to a gap lower. The DIA is implying a -0.49% open, the SPY implying a -0.59% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.75% gap-down open.

The major economic news scheduled for Friday includes Mar. PCE Price Index, Q1 Employment Cost Index, and Mar. Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), Chicago PMI (9:45 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). Major earnings reports on the day include ABBV, ALXN, AON, AZN, AVNT, CRI, CHTR, CVX, CLX, CL, XOM, FNMA, GT, HRC, HUN, ITW, IMO, JELD, JCI, LHX, LAZ, LYB, NWL, PSX, PBI, POR, QSR, GWW, and before the open. Then after the close, WES reports.

Despite continued blowout earnings reports from the massive FAANG names, markets seem poised to follow the rest of the world lower on Friday. Maybe this is related to the month-end or weekend news cycle that both are nearly at hand. Regardless, this just reinforces the bulls have had breaking through the recent highs and running free. Yet, the bears still have no shock or major story to hand their hats on. With blowout earnings and increasing forecasts, future inflation seems to be their storyline…and history shows markets rising in infationary times. So, for now, the bears best case would seem to be for a pullback.

Respect those potential support and resistance levels, but don’t just assume they will hold either. Predicting is a sucker’s game. So, stick with the trend, but also avoid chasing trades you have missed and be nimble. Lock in your profits when you achieve your trade goals and maintain your discipline by following those trading rules. Don’t let your emotions get the better of you. Consistency is the key to long-term trading success.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PM, XLE, AAPL, JPM, MDLZ, JNPR, AA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

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Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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