Candlesticks Archives - Page 60 of 125

Payroll Data, PMI, and a 3-day Weekend

September 3, 2021 by Ed Carter

Economic data was mixed in the premarket Thursday. Jobless Claims came in very slightly below expected and the July Trade Balance improved a bit. However, nonfarm productivity for Q2 came in three-tenths of a percent lower than expected. Markets seemed to like the news as stocks opened a third of a percent higher. At that point, the large-cap indices ground sideways in a tight range until 1 pm, while the QQQ sold off steadily until 2 pm. There was market-wide selling from 1-2 pm and then a very late rally into the close. This left the SPY and DIA as indecisive Doji and the QQQ as a gap-up black candle with a significant lower wick (also indecisive). On the day, SPY gained 0.32% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained o.38%, and QQQ lost 0.05%. The VXX fell to 24.77 and T2122 rose slightly, further into the overbought territory at 89.38. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.287% and Oil (WTI) was up 1.6% to $69.72/barrel.

During the afternoon, F announced that its August sales had declined by over 33% due to the global chip shortage. This was its worst month since June 2020 at the height of the pandemic shutdown. Worst of all, August is historically one of the strongest car sales months. For reference, US car dealers have 942k cars in inventory now compared to an average inventory of 3 million cars before the pandemic. This chip shortage is quite obviously a problem across the auto (and other) industry, not just for F.

A new study reported by Bloomberg says that more than 1 billion Asians will join the middle class by 2030. This includes 76 million in Indonesia and even 24 million of that billion being in the US. However, 75% of the number will be located in China and India. The same study said that the changing demographics will lead to middle class shrinking in countries like Japan, Western Europe, and the US. Obviously, this shift will impact corporations across the globe. In possibly related news CNBC reports that Chinese stock investing volumes continue to surge, despite recent government crackdowns on the Chinese Tech Giants. CNBC says that the average daily volume has held steady above $154 billion per day.

After the close, news came that the Democratic $3.5 billion budget bill is running into infighting problems. Essentially Democratic Senator Manchin asked his party to “pause” the budget while both he and another Democratic Senator also said they will not support a budget anywhere near that size. On the other side of the same party, progressives will not support a budget much smaller. This puts the President’s domestic agenda at risk and may also imperil the $1 Trillion Infrastructure Bill that Democrats have been trying to bundle as a pair with the Budget Bill.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with a widespread on the bullish side. Japan (+2.05%) surged as current PM Suga dropped out of his governing party’s leadership race. Taiwan (+1.14%), Indonesia (+0.80%), and South Korea (+0.79%) were the real leaders to the upside. Meanwhile, Hong Kong (-0.72%) and Shenzhen (-0.68%) paced to the downside. In Europe, markets are also mixed but lean heavily toward the red as they wait on US data as a guide. The FTSE (+0.23%) and DAX (+0.14%) are outliers, but the CAC (-0.42%) is typical of the broader continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward an open just on the green side of flat an hour ahead of the August Payroll Data. The DIA is implying a +0.16% open, the SPY implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.12% open at the moment. 10-year bond yields and Oil (WTI) are also up slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes Aug. Nonfarm Payrolls, Aug. Avg. Hourly Earnings, Aug. Participation Rate, and Aug. Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), Aug. Service PMI (9:45 am), and ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am). MAKE NOTE: we have a 3-day weekend ahead for US and Canadian markets. There are also no earnings reports scheduled for Friday or Monday.

August Payrolls data are very likely to call the tune today. However the Payroll data is interpreted by the traders, this is likely to be reinforced by mid-morning PMI data as Mr. Market begins to look ahead a couple of weeks to the Fed meeting. With that said, we do have an upcoming 3-day weekend, which many traders may try to stretch. So, be ready for early volatility with the potential for volume to begin drying up at some point mid-day.

Concentrate on the process and on managing those things that you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. However, above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Simply don’t let greed turn your winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FGEN, SKLZ, PDD, MMAT, BIDU, IQ, STEM, BILL, JMIA, LOW, AG, MGM, WYNN, RIG, CLOV, KR, SPT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade: PYPL, TGT, and ZS. Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19 (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

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Jobless Claims and Factory Orders Lead

September 2, 2021 by Ed Carter

The ADP private payrolls report came in very soft (374k vs 600k est.) before the Open Wednesday, but bulls didn’t seem to care with a slight gap up to start the day. At that point, QQQ rallied hard for 30 minutes, DIA sold off for an hour, and SPY ground sideways in a very tight range. All 3 major averages then moved sideways until a long selloff started at 2 pm and ran right into the close. This left us with a Shooting Star-type candle in the QQQ, a Bearish Engulfing of a Doji in the DIA, and just a black candle in the SPY. On the day, SPY gained 0.07%, QQQ gained 0.17%, and DIA lost 0.10% as its consolidation continued. The VXX fell to 24.81 and T2122 rose back into the overbought territory at 88.43. 10-year bond yields started the month unchanged at 1.302% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $68.28/barrel.

At the Close Wednesday, F announced it will once again be cutting F-150 pickup production (as well as other highly profitable vehicles) due to the global chip shortage. The company will leave the currently closed Kansas City plant closed at least another week. It will also cut shifts at the Kentucky truck plant and run only one of three shifts at the Michigan truck plant. In a related story, Bloomberg reports this morning that TSLA’s Chinese plants were “closed for days” last month due to the same cause, the chip shortage.

AAPL announced yesterday that 8 states will now allow their citizens to use electronic IDs such as their iPhone or Apple Watch as valid for security checks, including airports. The states include AZ, CT, GA, IA, KY, MD, OK, and UT. This comes after AAPL announced last month that it was working with the TSA to gain approval of ID by electronic device approval. AAPL also announced plans to make slight tweaks to App payment policy. This is an attempt to avoid or mitigate moves to force massive changes to the App Store policies and revenue.

So far this morning, CCEP and PDCO reported a beats on both lines while HRL beat on revenue and came in fractions of a cent below estimates on earnings. In other business news, QSR (Burger King) announced a customer loyalty program, matching recent moves by MCD, WEN, and longer-standing programs from SBUX and CMG.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed again, this time on modest moves as Australia reported a larger-then-expected (20% higher) trade surplus in July on commodity price strengths. On the red side, South Korea (-0.97%) and Taiwan (-0.88%) were by far the leaders. Meanwhile, on the upside, India (+0.92%), Shanghai (+0.84%), and Thailand (+0.81%) led the charge. In Europe, markets are mostly green at mid-day. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (+0.03%), and CAC (+0.09%) are flat, but most of the continent is a little more to the upside at noon in London. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modest green open. However, this is also an hour before a considerable economic data dump. The DIA is implying a 0+0.15% open, the SPY implying a +0.17% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.22% open at the moment. 10-year bond yields are down to 1.287% and Oil (WTI) is up two-thirds of a percent in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday includes Imports/Exports, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q2 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q2 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), July Factory Orders (10 am), and 2 Fed speakers (Bostic at 1 pm and Daly at 3 pm). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to AEO, DOOO, CIEN, DCI, GCO, GMS, HRL, PDCO, SIG, and TTC before the open. Then after the close, AVGO, DOCU, HPE, JOAN, and SAIC report.

With a lot of data coming out this morning and the August Payrolls number due tomorrow, it is worth reminding ourselves that it’s not the data that matters. What matters is the way the market reacts to the news. For example, bad economic data could be interpreted as very bad for future earnings reports. However, it could also be interpreted as giving cover to the Fed to push the taper further out. The point is, don’t think you can forecast the data, let alone how the market will react. Just stick with the current trend until the trend breaks (ends).

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn your winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: FNKO, CAN, MMAT, STEM, PLAY, USO, GEVO, NLOK, CDEV, CRSR, PWR, AMD. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Loan Demand Flat As ADP and PMI On Deck

September 1, 2021 by Ed Carter

Tuesday was a consolidation day for markets with a flat open leading to a sideways grind in all the major indices. The QQQ showed the most volatility for the day, but closed well up off the lows and closer to the highs of the day, leaving a Hanging Man type of candle. The two large-cap indices both printed Doji-like candles. On the day, the SPY lost 0.15%, the DIA lost 0.05%, and the QQQ lost 0.08%. The VXX fell slightly to 25.49 and T2122 dropped a bit further down into the mid-range. 10-year bond yields were up to 1.31% and Oil (WTI) fell to $68.52/barrel. Despite the small losses, the S&P500 booked its 7^th-straight winning month in August. On the month, SPY was up 2.98%, DIA was up 1.27%, and QQQ was up 4.22%.

For the week, mortgage loan demand was basically flat. New home loan applications rose 1% week-over-week. Meanwhile, refinancing loan applications fell 4% for the week. This comes as mortgage rates (30-year fixed, conforming loan) remain steady at 3.03%.

This morning Bloomberg reported that a new study by Willis Towers Watson Consulting finds that 52% of US employers are planning or are strongly considering implementing employee vaccine mandates by the end of the year. That is well more than double the 21% that currently have mandates in place. In addition, 14% of the companies are also considering implementing a “healthcare surcharge” on unvaccinated employees in lieu of the mandate. This comes from a survey of 1,000 US employers conducted August 18-25.

A study research study published Monday in the Journal of American Medical Assn. (JAMA) found that the MRNA vaccine creates well more than twice as many antibodies as the PFE-BTNX vaccine. The study went on to suggest the differences may be due to a larger amount of active ingredient in the MRNA vaccine and potentially influenced by the different intervals between shots in the two vaccine regimens.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on private data showing that China’s PMI is shrinking (49.2 down from 50.4 in July). Japan (+1.29%) and Singapore (+1.07%) led the fewer gainers, while Indonesia (-0.97%) and Malaysia (-0.90%) paced the more numerous losers. In Europe, we see green across the board as of mid-day. The FTSE (+0.79%), DAX (+0.18%), and CAC (+1.20%) are typical of the spread in that region at this hour. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a positive open. The DIA is implying a +0.29% open, the SPY implying a +0.32% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.20% open in the pre-market. Meanwhile, the Dollar is up slightly and 10-year bond yields are up to 1.321%, while commodities are mixed in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday includes August ADP Nonfarm Employment (8:15 am), August Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), ISM Mfg. PMI (10 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), and Fed member Bostic speaks (noon). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to BF.B, CPB, and DY before the open. Then after the close, CHWY, FIVE, and GEF report.

Markets get more economic data today, which may help break the stalemate of the very recent consolidation. In the premarket, we’ll see a preview of Friday’s August Payrolls data. then mid-morning we get PMI data. Both may lend to some volatility. Remember that we still sit at all-time highs and, perhaps, just a little extended from the T-line (8ema), but the trend remains bullish.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Also, remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. Simply put, the market maintains a trend far more often than it reverses the trends. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DGX, RIG, JETS, AMD, NAT, AAPL, WBA, BGFV. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Brokerage and South Korean News Lead

August 31, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets started the week off with a small gap higher in all 3 major indices. After the open, the SPY and QQQ saw a strong rally into late morning and then sideways trading the rest of the day. Meanwhile, the DIA was much more tentative, trading in waves to the side all day long. This left us with a strong bullish candle in the QQQ, a decent bullish candle in the SPY, with just a bit of upper wick, and a gap-up black candle in the DIA. On the day, SPY gained 0.44% (to a new all-time high close), QQQ gained 1.12% (to a new all-time high close), and DIA lost 0.14%. The VXX fell a percent to 25.59 and T2122 dropped just outside of the overbought territory to 76.62. 10-year bond yields fell to 1.28% and Oil (WTI) gained about half of a percent to $69.06/barrel.

During the day, SEC Chairman Gensler told Barron’s that the banning of “payment for order flow” is a possibility. This caused HOOD to tank, closing down 6.89% after being down over 10% at one point. However, this has broader implications for traders as most brokerages are offering zero or no commissions now on the back of this practice of selling order flow to marketmakers rather than charging higher commissions. Gensler told Barron’s that this practice is an inherent conflict of interest (not necessarily giving brokerage clients the best price at the moment of order) and he feels it hurts both traders and markets. No timetable was mentioned, but this interview came after Friday’s announcement that the SEC would step up inquiries into the “gamification” of trading. So, it implies a major change in SEC governance. In other brokerage news, PYPL is exploring ways to allow users to invest in stocks. While likely not a threat to the major brokers, the likes of HOOD, WeBull, SOFI, FUTU, etc.

In tech stock news, South Korea has passed legislation (180-8) that prohibits AAPL and GOOG from requiring App developers to use only their own payment processing systems. South Korea is a major smartphone market. However, the much larger picture would be the adoption of such measures in Europe (likely) and the US (unknown probability). This will mean that developers can avoid paying AAPL and GOOG a 30% commission on all sales. If we assume the App developers will still need to have payments processed somewhere (at a cost), the move will likely mean improved profitability (but not by 30%) for developers and a major hit to AAPL and GOOG app store revenues.

GS said Monday that they expect 750k evictions by the end of the year out of the 3.5 million US households that are behind on rent. In related news, Bloomberg also reports that analyst firm RealPage has found that rents are increasing by an average of 17% relative to what the previous tenant paid. Obviously, these two developments will have major impacts on REITs and other property-related businesses.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green. South Korea (+1.75%), Hong Kong (+1.33%), and Japan (+1.08%) led the gains. Singapore (-1.52%) and Shenzhen (-0.66%) were the only red in the region as Chinese Factory data showed a slowing growth of activity in August. In Europe, markets are also mostly green so far today. The FTSE (-0.05%) is lagging, but the DAX (+0.71%), and CAC (+0.28%) are typical of the rest of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat open. The DIA is implying +0.01%, the SPY implying +0.02%, and the QQQ implying +0.06%. The Dollar is trading a bit lower, while 10-year bond yields and Oil are up slightly in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to Chicago PMI (9:45 am) and Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to DBI, NTES, and DAO before the open. Then after the close, PVH reports.

Markets may well be in “wait and see” mode as we draw nearer to more data dumps later in the week (especially the August Payrolls number on Friday). However, we are sitting at all-time highs in s strong bullish trend on fairly strong breadth. We are a bit extended from the T-line in the QQQ (rally leader), but there has been no hint of bear strength yet. So, don’t bet on trend failure, but be prepared if a pullback or rest starts to materialize.

Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you control, while not worrying too much about the things you can’t control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Also, remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. Simply put, the market maintains trend far more often than it reverses trends. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: OPCH, CAN, EBON, BTBT, ARRY, RIDE, FLDM, NAIL, ABT, DLPN, PDD, RIG, TSLA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Ida and Delta Now, Aug Payrolls Ahead

August 30, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened slightly higher Friday and started to drift higher. However, Fed Chair Powell’s speech was met with joy and a strong rally between 10 and 10:30 am, before drifting slowly higher until the last 15 minutes of the day. This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that closed near the highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.89% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.68%, and QQQ gained 0.97% (to a new all-time high close). The VXX fell over 5% to 25.85 and T2122 jumped deep into the overbought territory at 91.51. 10-year bond yields fell significantly to 1.305% and Oil (WTI) rose almost 2% to $68.68/ barrel.

Hurricane Ida came ashore early Sunday as a Category 4 hurricane. It made landfall West of New Orleans. Prior to the landfall, Ida had shut down 91% of Oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Having reached the US, Ida will now shut down a sizeable chunk of US oil refining and chemical production that follows the Mississippi River to the North and extends West to the Texas state line (Chemical Alley). However, the Oil production, refining, and chemical processing plants should be largely back online within days, pending local damage and power outages.

In chip shortage news, TSM has announced they will be increasing the price of their products by 10-20% depending on the wafer generation as of the end of this year. Computers will see the lower end of the price rise, but low-end electronics (like cars) will see the high end of the increases. There is very little doubt that Intel, Global Foundries (recently filed to go public), QCOM, AVGO, and others will follow suit. The underlying reasons are the huge investments being made into additional production capacity, modest input cost increases, and most importantly the tremendous pricing power the industry has had amidst skyrocketing demand over the last 18 months. This is likely to lead to rising prices on every product that contains electronics.

In other virus-related news, new US infections continue to rise. However, analysts continue to predict we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 39,665,515 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 654,689. The averages are now at 156,819 new cases and 993 new deaths per day. Amidst that backdrop, Israel (at an all-time high peak in new cases), which tends to front-run US trends, has now approved and is pushing booster vaccinations in an effort to forestall another national shutdown. Along those lines, over the weekend both Dr. Fauci (NIH) and the White House gave support to the idea of boosters for all American citizens while continuing to push for vaccinations of any kind. (Only 53% of US Adults are fully vaccinated.)

Overnight, Asian markets were almost green across the board. Only Shenzhen (-0.09%) showed any red at all. Meanwhile, Indonesia (+1.71%), India (+1.35%), and Taiwan (+1.08%) led the gainers. In Europe, markets are a bit more mixed, but still lean to the green side on modest moves. The FTSE (+0.32%), DAX (+0.22%), and CAC (+0.18%) are typical of the gainers with outliers like Greece (+1.16%) and Norway (-0.29%) at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a+0.05% open, the SPY implying a +0.09% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.13% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to July Pending Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to CTLT, LI, and VEON before the open. Then after the close, NDSN, STNE, and ZM report.

With Jackson Hole behind us, markets are likely to look toward the data dumps later in the week (and especially the August Payrolls Report on Friday). It is possible volatility picks up here, but most of all, remember that we are sitting at all-time highs coming into a month’s end. (Granted it is not a quarter-end, but still more funds will be reporting the period’s results than say a given week. And that can lead to some profit-taking and Window Dressing prior to Wednesday.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: WKHS, NKLA, F, KRE, BB, BFLY, RIDE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Fed Chair Powell’s Speech Tops Agenda

August 27, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened flat on Thursday and sold off in a couple of waves during the day as Fed members spoke to close on the lows. While the move was larger than the previous 3 days of the week, the move was about the same size as every move last week. So, it was by no means a selloff. This action left us with a Bearish Engulfing candle in the DIA (which failed the 8ema, but just black-body candles that did not even test the 8ema in the SPY and QQQ. On the day, SPY lost 0.58%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.64%. The VXX rose 4% to 27.25 and T2122 dropped back into the mid-range at 40.16. 10-year bond yields gained slightly to 1.351% and Oil (WTI) fell three-quarters of a percent to $67.85/barrel.

After the close Thursday, WDAY, MRVL, and GPS beat on both lines. HPQ missed on revenue, but beat on earnings. PTON beat on revenue and missed very significantly on earnings (-$1.05/share vs. -$0.44/share estimated). PTON also announced they will be slashing the price of their less expensive bike by hundreds of dollars starting immediately. (The Bike+ debuted at $2,495 was reduced twice to $1,895 and will now sell for $1,495.) In legal news, GILD won an appeal on the $1.2 billion judgment BMY had won related to a cancer treatment that encourages the patient’s own immune system to fight the disease. The judge said the original ruling was not based on substantial evidence.

The big news on the day is expected to be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Markets (and especially media analysts) are expecting to get strong guidance from Powell on when and how the FOMC will begin to taper bond-buying. However, there is a major risk of disappointment in the speech with uncertainty over the current and future effect of the Delta variant on one side and a seemingly surging economy on the other.

As an example of Powell’s problem, just yesterday the Q2 GDP we revised upward a tenth of a percent to 6.6%, jobless claims came in holding at pandemic era lows, and two Fed members told the press they were worried about inflation. However, the US also reported 170,000 new covid cases, almost 12,000 new hospitalizations, and 1,215 deaths. More companies also announced pushing back the “return to the office” and that they are requiring employees to be vaccinated. So, the market wants concrete direction, but Powell needs to say we will taper, without locking himself into hard timelines.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned slightly to the green side on modest moves. Taiwan (+0.84%), Shanghai (+0.59%), and Thailand (+0.58%) led the gainers. Singapore (-0.92%), Japan (-0.36%) and Indonesia (-0.28%) paced the losses. In Europe, markets are mixed and flat but lean slightly to the downside ahead of the headliner speeches at Jackson Hole. The FTSE (-0.06%), DAX (-0.02%), and CAC (-0.11%) are typical of the continent. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a modestly green open ahead of data and the Fed Chair Speech. The DIA is implying a +0.24% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ is implying a +0.34% open at this hour.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Friday includes July PCE, Jul Trade Balance, July Personal Spending, and July Retail Inventories (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium resumes at 9 am and Fed Chair Powell does his presentation at 10 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to BIG before the open. There are no earnings reports scheduled after the close.

With Powell’s speech beginning at 10 am, I expect very light action early (unless Powell’s speech gets leaked early). With that said, I also expect considerable volatility when the speech sinks in. If you are not already hedged or lighter in your positions, it is probably time to be very nimble. Trade carefully and remember this is Friday. So, don’t forget to pay yourself and prepare for the weekend news cycle.

Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control, while not worrying too much about the things you cannot control. As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Remember, the trend is your friend until it is broken. And if you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. Above all, consistently take profits when you have them. Don’t let greed turn winners into losers.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, BTBT, CARR, BB, BTU, EBAY, WKHS, GSMG, NURO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

Jobless Claims, GDP, and Jackson Hole

August 26, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened just on the green side of flat Wednesday. That was followed by a long drift sideways with a slight bullish lean for the rest of the day. This left us with Spinning Top or Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day, SPY gained 0.21% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.13%, and QQQ gained 0.11% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX fell 2.28% to 26.10 and T2122 rose into the overbought territory at 82.05. 10-year bond yields spiked to 1.344% and Oil (WTI) rose 1.14% to $68.31/barrel.

During the day, WDC spiked higher on reports of a big tech merger. The Wall Street Journal reported that WDC is close to a deal with Japanese memory maker Kioxia (a one-time spin-off from Toshiba). This reaction is quite odd, in that WDC would be the purchasing company and yet was up over 15% at one point in the day (before closing up 7.8%). This comes after a proposed Kioxia buyout by MU fell through last month. The WDC deal will reportedly value Kioxia at $20 billion and will be paid for in WDC stock. Kioxia is the inventor of NAND flash memory technology widely used in most computer memory and solid-state storage.

After the close, the White House held a cybersecurity summit, aimed at preventing hacks and ransomware attacks such as the Colonial Pipeline incident, came to an end. GOOG announced they will spend $10 billion over 5 years to strengthen their security and pledged to train 100,000 IT people on security best practices. Not to be outdone, MSFT said they will spend $20 billion over 5 years to deliver more advanced security tools (software) and pledged to spend $150 million to help government agencies upgrade security. IBM pledged to train 150,000 people in cybersecurity skills over 3 years and announced a data storage infrastructure solution that is more secure than current architectures. AMZN said it is planning to give users of its cloud services free multi-factor authentication devices. Many other firms gave non-specific support to security and the attendees agreed to create a new industry standard for security.

In miscellaneous stock news, one day after PFE received approval, MRNA has now filed with the FDA requesting its Covid-19 vaccine get full approval (versus the current “Emergency Use” approval). Elsewhere, the CEO of TOL told CNBC that recent lumber price declines will save the company $40,000 per house and help offset other inflation pressures in the second half of the year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the red as South Korea hiked interest rates. Shenzhen (-1.92%), Shanghai (-1.09%), and Hong Kong (-1.08%) led to the downside. Most of the green was barely green, with the notable exception of Malaysia (+1.02%). In Europe, stocks are showing modest red moves everywhere except for 2 minor exchanges. The FTSE (-0.35%), DAX (-0.63%), and CAC (-0.29%) are typical of the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat, but red open. The DIA is implying a +0.09% open, the SPY implying a -0.08% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.17% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields and the Dollar are also flat, but Oil is down nine-tenths of a percent to $67.73 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Thursday is limited to Q2 GDP and Weekly Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am). The Jackson Hole Symposium also begins at 9 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include FLWS, ANF, BURL, CM, COTY, DG, DLTR, SJM, MOMO, SAFM, XPEV, and YSG before the open. Then after the close, DELL, GPS, HPQ, MRVL, PTON, VMW, and WDAY report.

As Jackson Hole gets underway, markets are likely to watch and wait until they get a better read on what the Fed will do and when. So, it is quite possible we are going to stay in “pause mode” at least until Fed Chair Powell’s presentation. At that point, we may see Mr. Market make a decision (and move). However, volatility around each of the many presentations is possible. So, this would be a great time to be nimble, hedged, or with plenty of dry powder (cash).

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIDE, CUBI, CG, FAST, NAVI, TSCO, RCL, MARA. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

A Pause Before We Get to Jackson Hole?

August 25, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets essentially opened very slightly higher Tuesday and then ground sideways with a slight bullish lean until about 2:30 pm. At that point, we saw profit-taking right into the close. This left us with tiny, Gap-Up Doji-type candles in all 3 major indices. On the day SPY closed up 0.15% (to another new all-time high close), DIA closed up 0.08%, and QQQ closed up 0.31% (to another new all-time high close). The VXX was flat at 26.71 and T2122 rose but remains in the midrange at 70.97. 10-year bond yields moved higher to 1.299% and Oil (WTI) gained 3% to $67.66/barrel.

After the close, the House voted to approve a procedural measure that advances both the $3.5 trillion budget resolution and the bipartisan infrastructure bill. The move comes after Democratic infighting was resolved and will allow Democrats to approve the massive spending bills without any Republican votes. While still a long way off, this is another major step toward both the Infrastructure bill (great for steel, telecom, and other industries) and the Democratic budget agenda (increased social “safety net” and education spending), which may hurt industries like insurance and drug companies as well as tax increases on business and high-income.

30-year fixed mortgage rates fell to 3.03%. This was the first drop in rates in the last 3 weeks. However, mortgage demand remains light, seeing only a 1% increase in refinance applications and a 3% increase in new loan applications from last week.

JNJ reported that its Covid Booster shot is showing a promising immune response in early trials this morning. Specifically, trial participants are showing a nine-fold increase in antibodies 4 weeks after the booster shot. In other virus-related news, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this surge. The totals rose to 38,968,925 confirmed cases and deaths are now at 648,161. The averages are now at 148,755 new cases and 873 new deaths per day.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but heavily to the green side. Taiwan (+1.35%), Malaysia (+1.06%), and Thailand (+0.85%) led to the upside. The only red was minor and came from Japan (-0.03%) and Hong Kong (-0.13%). In Europe, we also see mixed markets, but on more modest moves at this hour. The FTSE (+0.21%), DAX (-0.16%), and CAC (+0.16%) are typical of the mix across the continent at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to a flat open. The DIA is implying a +0.04% open, the SPY implying a +0.01% open, and the QQQ implying a -0.02% open at this hour. Meanwhile, 10-year bond yields are slightly higher at 1.309% and Oil is up a third of a percent in early trading, even as the Dollar shows a little strength against other currencies.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Wednesday is limited to July Durable Goods Orders (8:30 am) and Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include DKS, LX, QH, RY, and VIOT before the open. Then after the close, ADSK, GES, NTAP, SPLK, ULTA, and WSM report.

As traders begin preparing for the Jackson Hole Symposium (Central Banker Summit, which is virtual this year), the pause may continue again today. Traders will focus on figuring out how “tapering” will be couched in the discussions and then handicapping how the market will react. While July Durable Goods and Current Oil Inventories new could theoretically move markets, the more likely scenario is that we drift as traders prepare. That’s our cue to be prepared as well. What will you need to do to your portfolio if we see a taper tantrum pullback? How about if we see an “everything’s hunky-dory” rally? Plan ahead so that you aren’t running around with your hair on fire if one of those does come to pass Thursday or Friday.

As always, manage your existing trades before you go chasing any new ones. Concentrate on the process and on managing those things you can control. Good trading rules and discipline is what separates long-term success from failure in trading. So, trade with the trend. If you miss a move, just admit it and move on to the next chart. Never chase price on an entry and remember to keep your losses small by using stops or hedges. And always consistently take profits when you have them.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SWCH, NLOK, SBUX, DKNG, CARR, PENN, AMC, GME, CAN. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

More Good Retail Earnings This Morning

August 24, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets gapped higher Monday and then kept rallying until about 1 pm. However, the rest of the day saw some persistent profit-taking that lasted into the close. This left us with strong white candles with upper wicks in all 3 major indices. On the say, SPY gained 0.87% (to a new all-time high close), DIA gained 0.64%, and QQQ gained 1.50% (to a new all-time high close). The VXX fell 3.4% to 26.81 and T2122 remained in the mid-range at 55.65. 10-year bond yields were flat at 1.257% and Oil (WTI) spiked higher 5.3% to $65.44/barrel as commodities across the board showed very strong gains on a very weak dollar.

The FDA gave “Full Approval” (as opposed to “Emergency Use Approval”) to the PFE Covid vaccine on Monday. President Biden then made a plea to those unvaccinated Americans, saying “Please get vaccinated now.” He went on to stress that the vaccine has now proven to be 91% effective at preventing infection and once vaccinated, there is a very low statistical probability of having a severe infection. As of Sunday, only 51% of American adults were fully vaccinated. In somewhat related news, DIS reached a deal with unions to require all employees be vaccinated.

In earnings news, the retail sector continues to impress as BBY posted a beat on revenue and 58% obliteration of earnings estimates. BBY stock was up 6% in pre-market trading on the news. AAP also beat on both lines, but PDD missed on revenue from the retail sector this morning. In other sectors, MDT and BNS beat on both lines as well. In fact, for the earnings season, 90% of the S&P500 have reported an average earnings gain of 95% year over year.

Related to the virus, new US infections are continuing to rise, but with analysts saying we may have reached the peak of this Delta surge. The totals rose to 38,814,596 confirmed cases and deaths are now at a total of 646,667. Remember that these numbers are now under-reported as many (mostly Southern) states have decided to stop reporting data on a daily basis. Nonetheless, on the data we do have, the number of new cases is increasing at an average of 147,693 new cases per day. Deaths, which lag, are also still rising and are now at 846 per day.

Overnight, Asian markets were green across the board as Chinese tech stocks rallied hard. Hong Kong (+2.46%) and Malaysia (+2.03%) were standouts. However, the major exchanges all saw about a 1% gain. In Europe, markets are mixed on modest moves so far today. The FTSE (-0.16%), DAX (+0.32%), and CAC (-0.39%) are typical of the region at mid-day. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing to modest gaps higher at the open. The DIA is implying a +0.14% open, the SPY implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implying a 0.26% open at this hour. The dollar and 10-year bond yields are flat in early trading, but Oil (WTI) is showing another 1.8% gain to $66.84/barrel.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Tuesday is limited to July New Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day include AAP, BNS, BBY, HTHT, MDT, and PDD before the open. Then after the close, VNET, HEI, INTU, JWN, SCSC, TOL, and URBN report.

In Asia, it seems the worries over Chinese Tech regulations and Covid have eased (China reported no cases for a second straight day after their draconian regional crackdown). Europe seems to also be in a better mood as the PFE-BNTX vaccine approval in the US eased some concerns and Fed tapering expectations have been calmed by recent statements. With breadth (T2101) up off its lows and back into the highs of the period since the Spring rally and stocks at all-time highs again, the bulls are looking for some follow-through this morning.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: SPT, ARRY, DKNG, MS, AMRN, SWCH, GNOG You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

PMI Data and When Fed Will Taper in Focus

August 23, 2021 by Ed Carter

Markets opened relatively flat on Friday. However, the dip-buyers showed up and led a choppy rally all day long. This left us with strong bullish candles in all 3 major indices that all closed very near their highs. On the day, SPY gained 0.77%, DIA gained 0.48%, and QQQ gained 1.04%. The VXX fell 7.5% to 27.75 and T2122 jumped back up into the mid-range at 41.61. 10-year bond yields rose a bit to 1.257% and Oil (WTI) fell 2.26% to $62.25. For the week, all 3 major indices gave us long-legged, indecisive, Doji-like candles with the SPY down 0.60%, DIA down 1.19%, and QQQ lost 0.30%.

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Summit coming up at the end of this week. The recent talk (mostly from non-voting FOMC members in public events) has all been centered around starting the bond-buying taper soon. That’s assumed to be the main point of discussion among the global central bankers at the end of the week. However, it was interesting to note that on Friday, Fed hawk Kaplan (not a voter) who has been calling for quicker bond-buying taper changed his tune slightly. In a Friday interview, Kaplan told Fox News he may rethink his position on calling for a quick taper if it continues to look like the Delta variant spread is slowing economic growth. He went on to say “it’s in our interest to slow the spread and right now we’re in a negative trend.”

Bitcoin hit $50,000 on Sunday night, which was a 3-month high. This comes after a massive selloff in June and early July. The all-time high of $64,000 was reached in April prior to the selloff. Among the drivers of the recent rally was that COIN announced it would buy $500 million in crypto for its balance sheet and also allocate 10% of company profits to go into cryptocurrencies in future quarters.

In miscellaneous stock news, TGT announced they will triple the number of “shop in a shop” DIS stores they host in their stores. TGT will add 100 DIS shops in existing TGT stores before the holiday season. This seems to be a counter move to M announcing a few days ago that it will be adding Toys-R-Us “shop-in-a-shop stores. Both seem to be hopeful signs for the brick-and-mortar retail space and perhaps for the economy in general.

Overnight, Asian markets were almost exclusively green. Only Singapore (-0.49%) was in the red, while Taiwan (+2.45%), Shenzhen (+1.98%), and Japan (+1.78%) led the gainers. In Europe, PMI data out of the EU remains strong (59.5) for July. This has led to green across the board at mid-day in the region. The FTSE (+0.49%), DAX (+0.25%), and CAC (+0.93%) lead the way as usual, with most of the continent’s exchanges falling somewhere between the FTSE and DAX. As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest gap-higher. The SPY is implying a +0.43% open, the DIA implying a +0.35% open, and the QQQ implying a +0.31% open at this hour. 10-year bond yields are up slightly to 1.275% and Oil is trading 3% higher in early trading as the dollar is trading down significantly this morning.

The major economic news scheduled for release on Monday is limited to Mfg. PMI and Services PMI (both at 9:45 am) and July Existing Home Sales (10 am). The major earnings reports scheduled for the day are limited to JD before the open. Then after the close, PANW reports.

Good global economic data should give the bulls a little tailwind early today. However, US PMI data for July comes out at 9:45 am, and with few earnings or other data expected, that is likely to drive the tune for the remainder of the day. Breadth picked up in the rally the last few days. However, this is still far from what could be called a broad-based bull charge. So, continue to trade carefully and focus on the trend in your trading horizon.

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: RIOT, CAN, MRVL, SWCH, MARA, DLTR, EBAY. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education • Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching