Stocks gapped down about half a percent Wednesday and then ground sideways in the gap until a selloff kicked in for about half an hour mid-day.  From there all 3 major indices resumed their sideways grind in a tight range.  This action gave us small-bodied black Harami candles with larger upper wicks.  Both large-cap indices closed the day at their T-lines.  However, all 3 remain in that choppy consolidation range of the last 1.5 weeks.  On the day, SPY lost 1.09%, DIA lost 0.84%, and QQQ lost 0.72%.  The VXX climbed six-tenths of a percent to 21.80 and T2122 fell just outside of the overbought territory to 78.15.  10-year bond yields jumped back up to 3.025% and Oil (WTI) surged another 2.7% to $122.61/barrel.

During the day, SEC Chair Gary Gensler unveiled proposed rule changes.  The new rules would require trading firms (wholesalers) and exchanges to compete in open auctions for trades.  In other words, the back-room deals where brokerages sell order flow to a specific outlet would be made illegal.  The rule would also require brokers to disclose how this will impact both order execution and the price received.  If approved, this would change the way order wholesalers do business and may impact the “zero commissions” model of some brokerages.  Another rule would reduce the minimum “tick size” to fractions of a penny to align with the way dark pools are allowed to trade.

After the close, ABM and GEF both reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  However, FIVE missed on revenue while beating on earnings.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In business news, VWAGY CEO Keogh told CNBC that the company is actively looking for US locations for a new battery manufacturing facility and a car assembly plant.  No specific amount of investment was given, but he said it was part of the German company’s $7.1 billion commitment to boost electric vehicle efforts in North America.  In a surprise, AAPL also clarified that it will be providing the loans for its “buy now, pay later” service by itself, without external partners from the banking or finance industries.  Finally, TWTR announced that it plans to hold a shareholder vote on the sale to Elon Musk in late July or early August.  This is part of the escalating tensions where Musk constantly tweets things that hurt the value of TWTR and questions whether he will walk away from the deal while the company insists that he has an iron-clad purchase contract.

Overnight, the EU voted to ban gasoline and diesel vehicles (cars and vans) after 2035. Across the channel, the UK had already voted to prohibit those sales after 2030. So, the European stance was a compromise slower timeline to help the poorer EU nations. Also this week, the Biden Administration has announced standards for electric charging stations. (Currently, there is no standardization.) These new standards will guide the spending of $7.5 billion the bipartisan Infrastructure Bill allocates toward a national electric charging station network.

So far this morning, NIO and SIG have both reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, BILI beat on revenue while missing on earnings.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the downside.  Only Japan (+0.04%), Thailand (+0.27%), and India (+0.74%) managed to stay in the green.  However, Shenzhen (-1.85%), Australia (-1.42%), and Shanghai (-0.76%) led the rest of the region lower.  In Europe, we see a similar story taking shape at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.41%), DAX (-0.66%), and CAC (-0.26%) are typical of the region with only 2 exchanges barely hanging on to green in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green open.  The DIA implies a +0.43% open, the SPY is implying a +0.46% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.46% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields and Oil (WTI) are both flat in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 am). However, many traders will also be watching the ECB for their rate decision (as a read-through on Fed action, even as a 50 basis point move by the Fed is priced into futures as almost a mortal lock). The major earnings reports scheduled for release include BILI and SIG before the open.  Then after the close, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN report.

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

With Jobless Claims coming later this morning, premarkets look to have bounced up off the T-lines and are modestly positive at 7:30 am. Just remember that the open has not been a great indicator of where the day will close recently. The chop zone still prevails and we need to respect that range’s boundaries until it is clearly broken by a new directional move.

Technically speaking, we remain way over-bought in a choppy consolidation zone that started nearly 2 weeks ago. None of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart), but we may have a higher-low in all 3 of them. So, we remain in limbo with the mid-term downtrend broken, but a potential new uptrend that has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders. So continue to be careful, nimble, and/or hedged. (Or sit on your hands.)

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: MRNA, DKNG, CRM, CTVA, LLY, ABBV, AUY, BA, NKE, ROKU, CTIC. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down 0.8%-1.2% at the open Tuesday. However, the intraday reversal theme held as the bulls stepped in to fill that gap by 10:30 am.  From there we saw a rollercoaster ride with a bullish trend that drove into the close not far from the high. The action left us with gap-down, large, white candles that have climbed back above the T-line and back into the upper end of the recent choppy trading range.  The SPY and DIA both printed Bullish Engulfing candles while the QQQ printed a Bullish Piercing Candle.  The energy and Healthcare sectors led the market throughout the session.  On the day, SPY gained 0.90%, DIA gained 0.83%, and QQQ gained 0.86%.  The VXX fell 1.63% to 21.67 and T2122 climbed even deeper into the overbought territory at 94.  10-year bond yields fell to 2.985% and Oil (WTI) gained 1.4% to $120.14/barrel.

During the day Tuesday, AAPL outlined its new Apple Pay features that include “Buy Now, Pay Later” which will now directly compete with AFRM and PYPL.  The idea behind this offering is to capture users and keep them inside the iOS ecosystem instead of looking elsewhere for “Buy Now, Pay Later” services.  AAPL was up 1.75% while PYPL gained 1.96% and AFRM gained 2.74% on the day.  On the other side of the pond, AAPL agreed to a deal with the EU to remove their proprietary charging cables and go-to industry-standard USB-C cables for charging iPhones by 2024.  The deal will allow the company to avoid further fines and sanctions on the issue.

After the close, CASY reported beats on both lines. So far this morning CPB, THO, and BLCO all reported beating on the top and bottom lines as well. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In business news, after the close 5 automakers backed President Biden’s push to restore California having the ability to set its own, stricter than Federal, emissions standards.  Former President Trump had stripped states of that authority and the Biden administration is backing an EPW decision to restore it.  The companies supporting the measure include F, HMC, VWAGY, BMWYY, and VOLAF.  Surprisingly not on that list is TSLA, NIO, RIVN, NKLA, LCID, or even TM who might all benefit from the tighter rules on emissions.  Elsewhere, PYPL announced that it will now allow users to send and receive cryptocurrencies between PYPL wallets and other exchanges.  (PYPL users had previously been able to buy and sell crypto only to PYPL itself.)

SEC Chair Gary Gensler is scheduled to speak today. He is expected to address plans to change rules forcing exchanges to openly bid on brokerage order flows (rather than have unknown back-room deals) and for brokerages to be required to disclose how this will impact both order execution and the price received.  Industry forces (such as order wholesalers) are lobbying against Gensler’s plan even before they are announced.  We should note that the “Payment for Order Flow” is the mechanism that let many brokers go to a zero commissions business model. So, depending on what Gensler says and how the SEC eventually implements his vision, brokerage commission structures may be changing again. Another topic Gensler is expected to address is “Dark Pools” which now account for 40% of all market volume and are hidden from most market participants until the end of the day.

In Economic news, Bloomberg reported a few rays of light in the dark cloud of inflation we have been facing.  As I mentioned in the past, the price of semiconductors has been coming down for months now.  However, Bloomberg reported last night that the price of shipping containers has fallen 28% since the September 2021 highs.  In addition (and too late for the current US crop) nitrogen fertilizer prices have dropped like a rock from the $1400/ton March price to $675/ton as Brazil reported a glut in Brazilian ports with no place left to store it.  These will take some time to ripple through the economy and by no means does this mean inflation is falling yet, but these are signs of hope. On the opposite side of the spectrum, citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the World Bank lowered its global GDP forecast to +2.9% for 2022. This is down dramatically from the 2021 +5.7% number or even the World Bank’s own January forecast of 4.1%. Finally, mortgage demand has fallen again this week, reaching the lowest level of this century as 30-year, fixed-rate, conforming rates rose to 5.40%.

Overnight, Asian markets mixed, but leaned to the green side.  Hong Kong (+2.24%) was an outlier with Japan (+1.04%), Taiwan (+0.95%), and Shenzhen (+0.82%) being the more typical leaders of the region.  In Europe, stocks are mostly in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.33%), DAX (-0.42%), and CAC (-0.68%) are typical of the region with outliers like Russia (+1.71%) and Denmark (-1.23%) in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly lower start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.34% open, the SPY is implying a -0.26% open, and the QQQ implies a -0.11% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have climbed back to 3.012% and Oil (WTI) is up another percent to $120.66/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Wednesday we see Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am) and the 10-year bond auction (1 pm).  Treasury Sec. Yellen will also testify before Congress at 10 am. The major earnings reports scheduled for release include BF.B, BLCO, CPB, and OLLI before the open.  Then after the close, ABM, FIVE, and GEF report.

In economic news later this week, Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Thursday we hear from BILI, SIG, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN. Finally, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

The bears are offering only a slight pushback on the strong candles the market printed yesterday. Even at that, the premarket action has been positive (white candle) since the start of the early session. So, we should keep our eyes on the top of the recent chop range to see if the bulls can get going. However, remember that until that level is broken with some strength, we have to assume the back-and-forth chop of the last week and a half will continue.

Technically speaking, we remain way over-bought in a choppy consolidation zone that started after a one-week rally inside a longer-term downtrend. None of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart), but we do have a higher-low in all 3 of them. So, we remain in limbo with the mid-term downtrend broken, but a potential new uptrend that has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders. So continue to be careful, nimble, and/or hedged. (Or sit on your hands.)

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NEWR, PLUG, DHR, OXY, LKQ, DVN, VERU, WMB, F, T, VALE. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped a percent higher at the open Monday.  After treading water for the first 90 minutes, the bears stepped in and drove price back down to fill the gap by about 12:30 pm.  From there we have seen a whippy, rollercoaster to sideways in the gap the rest of the day.  This action left us with gap-up, black-bodied, Spinning Top candles in all 3 major indices.  From a sector standpoint, it is the Consumer Cyclicals that are the big loser of the day while Industrials, Basic Materials, and Financial Services led the gains.  On a day where sideways intraday chop is the rule, markets remain inside the recent choppy consolidation range.  On the day, SPY gained 0.30%, DIA gained 0.03%, and QQQ gained 0.33%.  The VXX also was up two-thirds of a percent to 22.03 and T2122 was flat (and remains overbought) at 88.02.  10-year bond yields surged to closed at 3.04% and Oil (WTI) closed down at $119.40/barrel.

During the day, AAPL held its annual World-Wide Developer’s Conference.  At the event, the company announced new M2 CPUs for Macbooks, another version of its iOS for phones and iPads, a new macOS and a new Apple Watch OS.  For investors, the largest reveal was probably the entry of AAPL into the buy-now-pay-later business with an offering called Pay Later.  During the event, CEO Tim Cook giggled but then refused to comment on whether the Chinese portion of AAPL’s supply chain is opening up yet. On the day, AAPL stock was up one-half of a percent but has given that back overnight, trading down half a percent in premarket.

After the close, NGL beat handily on revenue but also printed an awful miss on earnings. This is very odd for an oil refinery when gas prices have been at record levels the last few months.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In stock news, TWTR printed a Belthold type of candle as traders furiously tried to regain ground after Elon Musk threatened to walk away (at a $1 billion cost) from his purchase offer over the company not providing him data on users.  On the day, TWTR close down 1.49% after being down almost 6% early.   Solar stocks had a good day as on Sunday the Biden Administration announced a 2-year dropping of tariffs on solar panel imports.  Among the biggest gainers were FTCI (+31.74%), SHLS (+21.48%), ARRY (+18%), and JKS (+7.98%).  Among the more widely-traded solar stocks, ENPH (+5.41%), SEDG (+2.86%), and RUN (+5.94%) were the winners while domestic panel producer FSLR (-3.92%) took a hit.

Overnight a speech from a senior Chinese economist at a state-run research group on the topic of US-China relations was posted.  In the speech (delivered last month, but printed today), he called for China to seize TSM if the West were to levy Russian-like sanctions on China.  (For anyone who doesn’t know, TSM is the largest and leading technology semiconductor manufacturer in the world.  Companies like AMD, NVDA, INTC, etc. all are dependent on TSM chips.)  In the speech he went on to talk about the recovery of Taiwan and worried that TSM is speeding up the transfer of their operations to the US by building six factories (chip fabs) here.  He flatly stated that China must not allow the goals of the transfer be achieved.  TSM stock is down 0.87% in premarket while AMD is down 1.33%, NVDA is down 1.83%, and INTC is down 0.74%. on this potential threat.

In crypto news, a bipartisan group of US Senators and Congressmen said they are ready to debut a plan to overhaul the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and futures.  The plan would classify the vast majority of “digital assets” as commodities and empower the CFTC (not the SEC) to regulate the market.  This runs somewhat contrary to the fact that SEC Chair Gensler has been the one leading a public crusade to regulate crypto assets.  This law is just being introduced and much debate, horse-trading, and voting remain before this plan becomes law.  It is also worth noting that the “crypto lobby” is has a lot of sway in Congress, having contributed $30 million to various campaigns in the last 2 years according to CNBC.

Overnight, Asian markets leaned heavily to the red side.  Australia announced a rate hike that was larger than expected (50 basis points with 25 basis points expected). As a result, South Korea (-1.66%), Australia (-1.53%), and New Zealand (-1.33%) paced the losses.  Only Japan (+0.10%), Singapore (+0.15%), and Shanghai (+0.17%) were able to print any green across the region.  In Europe, stocks are similar to Asia, with red all over the board and only 3 minor patches of green at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.16%) leads, perhaps on the fact that Boris Johnson survived a “No Confidence” vote and will remains PM of the UK, with the DAX (-1.01%) and CAC (-1.08%) more typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap-down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.84% open, the SPY is implying a -0.96% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.21% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are down a bit to 3.016% and Oil (WTI) is off six-tenths of a percent to $117.75/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news events scheduled for release Tuesday include April Imports, April Exports, and April Trade Balance (all at 8:30 am).  However, keep an eye on unannounced guidance changes (lowering) as the market looks for clues of how bad the inflations and slow-down will impact companies. For example, this morning TGT warned their profits will be lower than expected in the short-term as it pays to cancel orders and marks down inventory to sell slow-moving products. The major earnings reports scheduled for release include ASO, CHS, CBRL, GIII, PLAY, MOMO, HOLX, SJM, REVG, and UNFI before the open.  Then after the close, CASY reports. So far this morning UNFI, SJM, MOMO, GIII, and CHS all reported beating on the top and bottom lines.  Meanwhile, REVG missed on both revenue and earnings.

In economic news later this week, Wednesday we see Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-year bond auction.  Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Wednesday we get reports from CPB, OLLI, ABM, FIVE, and GEF.  Thursday brings reports from BILI, SIG, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN. Finally, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

It looks like the bears will retest the bottom of the recent chop range (and the T-line) on the gap-down open across all 3 major indices. This will be a key level and if it fails, the bulls may run for cover in the short term. With that said, until that level is broken, we have to assume this is just more chop inside the consolidation zone.

Technically speaking, we remain over-bought in a choppy consolidation after a one-week rally inside a longer-term downtrend. None of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart). So, we remain in the no-mans-land where the mid-term downtrend has been broken, but a new uptrend has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders. So continue to be careful, nimble, and/or hedged. (Or sit on your hands.)

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: CC, MO, COP, VLO, PG, AAPL, W, WMT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

In the pre-market Friday, May Payrolls came in significantly higher than expected (yet also significantly below the number in April) at +390k jobs.  The unemployment rate remains at 3.6% and the participation rate increased very slightly to 62.3%.  This all led to a 1%-2% gap down at the open. At that point, the high-tech QQQ continued to selloff until 11:30 am, when it joined the SPY and DIA in beginning a sideways roller-coaster ride along the lows.  This left us with Bearish Harami Spinning Top and Bearish Harami Doji candles in all 3 major indices.  Just like Wednesday (and completely the mirror of Thursday), 9 sectors were in the red with only Energy managing to stay green.  Of the 9, Technology was by far the worst hit sector.  However, it is worth noting that all of the day’s action happened on much lower-than-average volume.  On the day, SPY lost 1.64%, DIA lost 1.03%, and QQQ lost 2.60%.  The VXX gained nine-tenths of a percent to 21.89 and T2122 fell slightly to 89.47, but still remains overbought.  10-year bond yields rose to 2.941% and Oil (WTI) jumped almost 3% to $120.28/barrel.

Mid-afternoon Friday Fed voter Mester (Cleveland Fed President) told CNBC that “inflation has not peaked yet” and “we still need multiple half-point rate hikes this summer.”  She also said she may back a September half-point hike as well if inflation does not cool. This came the same day as Elon Musk’s “I have a really bad feeling about the economy” and email to TSLA employees announcing a 10% workforce cut.  Finally, the CEO of C said it will be hard for the US to avoid recession.  However, he also said that Europe is more likely to head into recession than the US at this point.

Related to the Oil industry, after the close Friday, Bloomberg posted an article that shows all oil is not equal (and therefore not all oil stocks are equal).  Although “light sweet oil” prices have skyrocketed to $120/barrel, the price differential between that and the heavy “Western Canadian Select” oil sands oil has risen from less than $2 to almost $21 per barrel.  The proximate reason most cited for this is that US strategic petroleum reserves are nearly all made up of the “sour” (heavier) grade of oil.  So, as the US releases oil to fight gas price inflation, the US demand for heavy oil is being supplied by the much closer (lower transport cost) source to the tune of 1 million barrels per day.  Meanwhile, the other major heavy oil users (China and India) are buying Russian oil at a $40 discount to WTI ($20 cheaper than WCS).  This makes the largest market for WCS oil Europe, which is now moving more and more to being supplied by US and Middle-Eastern light sweet grades, and the Canadian transport costs to Europe are very heavy in relative terms.  Major companies suffering from this issue are ENB, SU, IMO, CNQ, CVE, TRP, and PBA. In a last-minute addition, Saudi Arabia raised the Asian and Northern European prices for oil more than expected, despite last week’s increase of production quotas.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Covid story, Bloomberg reported this weekend that China is declaring the victory of their “Zero Covid” policy.  This seems to jibe with AAPL saying that Chinese lockdowns at Apple’s major iPhone manufacturers and assemblers had not seriously impacted supply or sales.  However, at the same time, parts of China remain in strict lockdowns and Hong Kong is reimposing centralized quarantines as of the weekend. This may inform the reason AAPL announced this week that its moving more of its iPhone production to Vietnam.

In stock news, AMZN CEO for Worldwide Consumer (the top retail exec, who led the company’s massive logistics and Prime expansion) resigned effective July 1. This comes as AMZN starts the day split 20-1 as of today.  Meanwhile, the WSJ reported Saturday that REV is in talks with creditors in hope of avoiding bankruptcy on roughly $1.7 billion in debt that comes due by 2024.  Finally, AAPL holds its largest press event (“World Wide Developer’s Conference”) Monday with expected updates to the software for Macs, iPhones, iPads, Apple Watch, and Apple Virtual Reality offerings.  In the past, this conference has resulted in stock moves for AAPL.

In business news, RBC reported that US Auto Sales in May were down, coming in at 12.8 million vehicles versus 13.4 million forecast and well down from April’s 14.6 million vehicles sold.  They classified this as “recessionary levels” (which are typically in the 12-13 million range).  The company is forecasting 14.7 million vehicles sell in June, which is still 2% below the 15.1 million sold in June 2021.  Elsewhere, ABT restarted their Sturgis Michigan infant formula plant over the weekend.  This increases ABT production capacity by at least 25% and will go a long way toward addressing the political/news story of infant formula shortages soon.  Finally, Barron’s reports that WMT is adding new e-commerce fulfillment centers that will add 4,000 jobs and allow Walmart to reach 95% of the US population with either next day or two-day shipping as it continues to make moves to compete with AMZN.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the upside.  Hong Kong (+2.71%), Shenzhen (+2.66%), and Shanghai (+1.28%) led the way higher.  Meanwhile, in Europe, stocks lean heavily to the green side at mid-day.  The FTSE (+1.09%), SAX (+1.00%), and CAC (+1.08%) are leading the region higher in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a gap higher at the start of the day.  The DIA implies a +0.78% open, the SPY is implying a +1.02% open, and the QQQ implies a +1.36% open to start the week.  10-year bond yields are up to 2.957% and Oil (WTI) is down to $119.44/barrel in early trading.

There are no major economic news events scheduled for release Monday.  The major earnings reports scheduled for release are limited to SAIC before the open.  Then after the close, NGL reports. So far this morning, SAIC reported beats on both lines.

In economic news later this week, on Tuesday we get April Imports, April Exports, and April Trade Balance.  Then on Wednesday, we see Crude Oil Inventories and the 10-year bond auction.  Thursday brings Weekly Initial Jobless Claims.  Finally, on Friday we get May CPI, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, the WASDE Report, and the May Federal Budget Balance.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Tuesday we hear from ASO, CHS, CBRL, GIII, MOMO, HOLX, SJM, REVG, UNFI, CASY, and PLAY.  On Wednesday we get reports from CPB, OLLI, ABM, FIVE, and GEF.  Thursday brings reports from BILI, SIG, DOCU, SFIX, and MTN. Finally, on Friday there are no major reports scheduled.

The nice gap higher is still looking like it will leave us in the recent chop or consolidation range. So, while we are starting the week off on positive trading, we are by no means out of the back-and-forth zone that we’ve been fighting for a week. If the bulls want to take us to new heights, there remains a lot of work to do to break through the resistance levels above. The good news is that we don’t have to worry about new data refocusing Mr. Market on inflation until Friday. So, perhaps we can have a few days to focus on the charts.

Technically speaking, we should also bear in mind that even if this consolidation did print a higher-low, we have not yet printed that higher-high. So, none of the major indices are in an uptrend yet (at least on a daily chart). And we also remain overbought at this point, above 88 in the T2122. So, we remain in the no-mans-land where the mid-term downtrend has been broken, but a new uptrend has not been confirmed. This is a dangerous area for Swing Traders…be careful, nimble, and/or hedged.

Remember to be very careful chasing gaps/moves early. The whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we’ve seen lately, gap-chasers can get hurt. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily over the long run in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades. So, give up that lottery ticket mentality.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: NVDA, EXPE, AMD, XBI, NFLX, CHWY, CVX, TAN, EQT. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks opened more-or-less flat on Thursday.  For the first hour we saw an uneven, whippy selloff.  At that point be bounced up off of the T-line (8ema) and then the bulls stepped in to steadily rally the market the rest of the day, ending on the highs.  This left us with a Large Bullish Engulf in the SPY and QQQ as well as a strong white candle in the DIA.  Just the opposite of Wednesday, today nine sectors were green with only Energy in the red.  However, it is worth noting that the VXX fell 2.5% to 21.70 while the T2122 surged back up deep into the overbought territory at 94.96.  So, over-extension (especially in the tech names like AMD, FB, NVDA, TSLA, and NFLX) is worth keeping an eye on.  Elsewhere, 10-year bond yields were flat at 2.913% and Oil (WTI) climbed almost 2% (after being down hard earlier in the day) to $117.32/barrel.  All-in-all, the choppy consolidation we’ve seen all week continues.

During the day Thursday, ADP Private Payrolls came in far below forecast (+128k vs. +300k est.).  Then both Weekly Jobless claims and Q1 Productivity came in lower than expected and Q1 Unit Labor Cost came in a full percent higher than estimate (+12.6% vs. +11.6% forecast).  Later in the morning, April Factory Orders came in well below forecast as well.  This may be indicating that the economy is slowing and getting more expensive for companies as the Fed sees months of rate hikes ahead.  Fed Vice-Chair Brainard also told CNBC that “it’s very hard to see the cause (for any rate hike) pause.”  This comes after some of the more dovish members had suggested a fall pause to see if they had raised rated enough.

After the close, LULU, RH, and CRWD all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, COO beat on revenue while missing on earnings. However, JOAN missed on both lines. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In unhappy business news, TSLA CEO Musk says that he has “a super bad feeling about the economy” and says he wants to cut 10% of the TSLA workforce. As a result, TSLA has stopped new hiring for the time being. At the same time, F announced a new $3.7 billion investment in midwestern plants to increase production of electric F-150 as well as the Mustang vehicles. This will result in increased hiring, nominally in the same industry. Elsewhere, and for the second day in a row, a top JPM executive warned investors that they see the economy facing an “unprecedented number of economic shocks” (and as a result, company profits will suffer and stocks will fall).  Yesterday, JPM CEO Dimon referred to that issue as “an economic hurricane” being highly possible.  Finally, Japan’s largest steelmaker (Nippon Steel) has decided to postpone the firing of its large furnace, originally scheduled for this month. The furnace had been closed for upgrades, but the company has decided not to restart the furnace now due to decreased demand from Japanese Automakers, which are the largest buyer of Nippon steel.

On the Russia story, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August.  Recently, they had been adding 432,000 barrels/day each month.  So, the net increase was 216,000 barrels per day.  However, the group agreed to keep Russia as an active member. Elsewhere, US General Nakasone confirmed that US military hackers have conducted defensive, informational, and offensive cyber operations in support of Ukraine.  This was the first acknowledgment of US offensive hacking activity and the announcement is seen as a warning to Russia against any cyber-attacks on the US.  Finally, Russia has placed limits on its export of noble gasses (which are key ingredients in the production of semiconductor chips) until the end of 2022.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reports that a survey of Americans who earn at least $250,000/year found that one-third of them report living paycheck-to-paycheck.  (I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a consumption problem to me.)  It was also announced that the Biden Administration will cancel the student debt of about 560,000 students of various Corinthian Colleges (around 100 campuses exited).  The for-profit companies were accused of predatory and unlawful practices and face many lawsuits from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  The company filed for Bankruptcy in 2015 rather than face those lawsuits.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but leaned to the green side.  Hong Kong (-1.00%), Malaysia (-0.78%), Thailand (-0.74%) and Taiwan (-0.73%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Japan (+1.27%), Australia (+0.88%), and Shenzhen (+0.67%) led the more numerous gainers.  In Europe, stocks are mixed at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.98%), DAX (+0.29%), and CAC (-0.02%) are typical of the continent with Russia (-1.54%) being an outlier in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a down start to the day.  The DIA implies a -0.45% open, the SPY is implying a -0.68% open, and the QQQ implies a -1.06% open ahead of data.  10-year bond yields are up slightly to 2.924% and Oil (WTI) is off three-quarters of a percent to $115.96/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Friday we get May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, and May Unemployment Rate (all at 8:30 am), May Services PMI (9:45 am), and May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI (10 am).  We also have a Fed speaker scheduled (Brainard at 10:30 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release include DOOO before the open. There are no reports scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning DOOO reported a miss on the revenue line while beating on the earnings line.

The chop continues as markets seem to want to open inside the recent up/down range and on a down leg. However, this is all before the Payroll data that all eyes will be watching later this morning. Until that pattern is definitely broken, we have to work with what the chart shows us. And that would be sideways chopping action with intraday volatility. Looked at from a longer-term perspective, this is just consolidation. However, for a Swing Trader, this chop can cut you to pieces. So, be careful. The Payroll data may give the market some direction, but at this moment market indecision is the rule.

Technically speaking, a new uptrend has not yet begun, even if the longer-term downtrend has been broken. We may just be working off some over-extension here with choppy consolidation. However, increasing T2122 levels is not the way we work off over-extension. Finally, with the weekend ahead, this might be a good day to sit on your hands or take off early, unless the Payroll data gives us a clear and sustainable direction. The bottom line is that the market still has to decide whether we’ll see a soft or hard landing of the economy following Fed hikes. Until we know, all I can do is follow the trend (which is flat on the week and down in the longer term) and acknowledge that we are still overbought.

Be very careful chasing any gaps/moves early. Whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trends and as we saw yesterday, gap-chasers get hurt. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No Trade Ideas today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped higher about half a percent Wednesday.  However, this was met with an immediate strong selloff that lasted until 1 pm, giving back 2%-3% in the process.  At that point, the bulls stepped back in tepidly to lead a slow afternoon rally that took us right back where Tuesday had closed.  However, the bears weren’t done either and we sold off again the last 10 minutes of the day.  Nine of the 10 sectors were down on the day with only Energy showing green.  All-in-all, this left us with indecisive, larger black-bodied Spinning Top type candles in all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.80%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.77%.  Oddly, VXX lost 1.33% to 22.26 while T2122 also fell to 84.21 (still inside the overbought territory).  10-year bond yields surged to 2.915% and Oil (WTI) fell slightly to $114.67/barrel.  Overall, it was just another day of whipsaw indecision after last week’s rally.

During the day Wednesday, May Manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower than forecast, but May ISM Mfg. PMI came in above estimates (and last month).  April JOLTYs came in exactly as expected at 11.4 million current openings (a decline from the prior month).  In a little more depth, back before the pandemic businesses tended to lay off an average of 2 million people each month.  In May, 1.2 million people were laid off while 4.4 million voluntarily quit.  This left us with 11.4 million openings in a still red-hot job market.  So, companies will continue to see pressure on wages and other benefits in order to hire and keep their best employees.

After the close, CHWY, PVH, NTAP, PSTG, and VEEV all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GME beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, HPE missed on both lines. 

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In business news, FB number 2 (COO) Sheryl Sandberg (who had been seen as the business mind in the room versus Zuckerberg’s creative/technical skills) announced she is leaving the company (FB, soon to be META) in the fall.  Meanwhile, at TSLA CEO Musk sent emails to office staff demanding that they return to the office full-time or get out.  Specifically, Musk demanded that office employees spend an absolute minimum of 40 hours per week in the main office (not a branch) or the company will assume they have resigned.

On the Russia story, pro-Putin Hungary continues to negotiate against other EU members in a bid to make life harder for Russian opponents.  This time, they are demanding the EU lift sanctions on a Putin-loyalist religious figure in exchange for allowing the previously-agreed sixth round of sanctions (which include a partial ban on Russian oil by year-end) to be enacted.  This round of sanctions would include a ban on insurance companies covering tankers carrying Russian Oil.  While this would hurt Russian oil sales normally, Chinese and India-bound tankers would likely be insured by sovereign sources.  China also reaffirmed its close and growing relationship with Russia.  President Biden announced he will visit Saudi Arabia later this month and in likely-related news, the Saudis have said they are considering increasing oil production to offset the decrease in Russian output.  Finally, OPEC+ began its 3-day meeting in Vienna.  On the docket is whether or not to temporarily exclude Russia from the group.

In miscellaneous news, Bloomberg reports that a survey of Americans who earn at least $250,000/year found that one-third of them report living paycheck-to-paycheck.  (I don’t know about you, but that sounds like a consumption problem to me.)  It was also announced that the Biden Administration will cancel the student debt of about 560,000 students of various Corinthian Colleges (around 100 campuses exited).  The for-profit companies were accused of predatory and unlawful practices and face many lawsuits from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.  The company filed for Bankruptcy in 2015 rather than face those lawsuits.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly in the red.  Hong Kong (-1.00%), South Korea (-1.00%), and Taiwan (-0.73%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, only Shenzhen (+0.67%), India (+0.64%), and Shanghai (+0.42%) managed gains in that region.  In Europe, stocks are mixed but leaning to the green side at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.98%), DAX (+0.73%), and CAC (+1.10%) lead the way as always.  Russia (-1.09%) is the biggest loser at least in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a green open to the trading day.  The DIA implies a +0.41% open, the SPY is implying a +0.48% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.60% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are backing down a bit to 2.909% and Oil (WTI) is off 2.7% to $112.18/barrel in early morning trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday includes ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (8:15 am), Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, and Q1 Unit Labor Costs (all at 8:30 am), April Factory Orders (10 am), and Crude Oil Inventories (11 am).  We also have another Fed speaker (Mester at 1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release include CIEN, DBI, HRL, SPTN, and TTC before the open.  Then after the close, COO, CRWD, JOAN, LULU, and RH report.

So far this morning HRL and DBI have reported beats on both lines.  Meanwhile, SPTN missed on the revenue line while beating on earnings.  However, CIEN has reported a miss on both the revenue and earnings lines. TTC reports at 8:30 am.

In economic news later this week, on Friday we get May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, May Services PMI, and May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI. On the earnings front, we get a report from DOOO on Friday.

Markets are looking to make a modest gap higher this morning, but remain well inside the body of the black candles from Wednesday. In short, indecision remains the rule as traders may be waiting on Payrolls data Friday before picking a direction. Technically speaking, a new uptrend has not yet begun, even if the longer-term downtrend has been broken. We may just be working off some over-extension here with choppy consolidation. So, this might not be the week to get aggressive. The market still has to decide whether we’ll see a soft or hard landing going into year-end as well as early 2023. All I can do is follow the trend (which is up in the very short-term and down in the mid and longer-term) and acknowledge that we are still overbought.

Be very careful chasing any gaps/moves early. Whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trend and as we saw yesterday, gap-chasers get hurt. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: PDD, CTLT, PTC, ENPH, CHNG, IBM, LLY, DXC, APD, SNPS, FANG, EOG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped down about half of a percent Tuesday, but then climbed the lightning bolt back to fill the gap mid-afternoon.  However, at about 2:30 pm stocks started selling off hard, perhaps on profit-taking as we wrapped up May.  Regardless, that hard selloff gave back 4.5 hours of bull work in 30 minutes as major indices fell back through the entire gap to get back where they started the day.  This action gave us indecisive, large-wick Spinning Top candles as stocks remained deep in the overbought territory of T2122.  Oddly enough, after a rollercoaster ride, today’s action also leaves us with indecisive, large-wick Doji candles for the month as well across all 3 major indices.  On the day, SPY lost 0.56%, DIA lost 0.56%, and QQQ lost 0.27%.  The VXX was flat at 22.56 and T2122 fell a bit while remaining overbought at 88.46.  10-year bond yields surged up to 2.848% and Oil (WTI) was flat (after being up over 3% during premarket) at $115.20/barrel.

During the day, Chicago PMI came is stronger than expected.  In addition, Conference Board Consumer Confidence also came in above estimates.  (Although it was lower than the April number.)  In addition, President Biden met with Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Sec. Yellen to discuss inflation.  The President told reporters he is going to give the Fed leeway to do their job without interfering and that all 3 agree taming inflation is the number one priority.

After the close, HPQ, CRM, and VSCO all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  CRM stock was up 8% in post-market trading as it raised its profit guidance for the remainder of the year.  In other stock news, it was reported that FB will be changing to the symbol META prior to the open on June 9.  (Interestingly, FB is buying the symbol from an ETF that is currently using that ticker.)

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

The Fed will start Quantitative Tightening (QT) today.  They are starting with an $8.9 trillion portfolio of bonds and security-back mortgages.  The plan is that they sell off $47.5 billion in each of June, July, and August.  After that, the process accelerates to $95 billion per month of sales with a goal of getting down to a $7.5 trillion portfolio by the end of 2023.  The Fed estimates by then, the $1.5 trillion of tightening will be the equivalent of another 0.75% to 1% of rate hikes.

Mortgage demand fell again this week.  That demand has now reached the lowest level since 2018.  On the week, home purchase loan applications fell 1% (14% lower than one year ago).  This came despite rates falling slightly from 5.46% to 5.33% and origination points dropping from 0.60 to 0.51 on average.  The falling demand may well be a sign of consumer fear of economic growth.

On the Russia story, after heavy lobbying by the US and EU, OPEC+ is openly considering whether to suspend Russia from the group.  Elsewhere, President Biden said that the US will provide Ukraine with longer-range MLRS rocket systems.  (The Administration had been hesitant to do so because those longer-range rockets have the ability to strike up to 300km into Russia.)  Predictably, Russia said that the supplying of long-range weapons increases the chance of war between the US and Russia.  Germany also announced it will be supplying Ukraine with its IRIS-T air defense system.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, but leaned to the red side.  Malaysia (-1.06%), Taiwan (-0.79%), and Hong Kong (+0.56%) paced the losses.  Meanwhile, Japan (+0.65%), South Korea (+0.61%), and New Zealand (+0.57%) led the gains. In Europe, stocks are also mixed and leaning red at mid-day.  The FTSE (-0.39%), DAX (+0.19%), and CAC (unchanged) lead as always with Russia (+1.22%) posting the biggest gain and Norway (-1.25%) showing the biggest loss in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a flat to slightly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.41% open, the SPY is implying a +0.18% open, and the QQQ implies a dead flat open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are surging again to 2.877% and Oil (WTI) is up 1.2% to $116.04 in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Wednesday includes May ADP Nonfarm Payroll Change (8:15 am), Mfg. PMI (9:45 am), ISM Mfg. PMI and April JOLTs (both at 10 am), and Fed Beige Book (2 pm).  There are also 2 Fed speeches scheduled (Williams at 11:30 am and Bullard at 1 pm).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release include CPRI, DCI, HEPS, and WB before the open.  Then after the close, CHWY GME, HPE, NTAP, PSTG, PVH, and VEEV report.

So far this morning CPRI and WB have reported beats on both lines.  However, DCI beat on the revenue line while missing on earnings.

In economic news later this week, on Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Q1 Unit Labor Costs, April Factory Orders, Crude Oil Inventories, and another Fed speaker.  Then on Friday, we get May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, May Services PMI, and May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI.

On the earnings front for later this week, on Thursday we hear from CAE, CIEN, DBI, HRL, SPTN, TTC, COO CRWD, JOAN, LULU, and RH.  Finally, on Friday we get a report from DOOO.

As we enter June, Mr. Market is not sure whether we’ve just been in a relief rally for the last week or if the bottom is now in and we simply needed a rest day to end May.  In either case, we have not seen a higher low in any of the 3 major indices. So, technically speaking, a new uptrend has not begun, even if the longer-term downtrend has been broken. With a lot of important news on the docket, this might not be the week to get aggressive. The market still has to decide whether we’ll see a soft or hard landing going into year-end as well as early 2023. If anyone knows exactly how that will shake out, they are wiser than I am. All I can do is follow the trend (which is up in the very short-term and down in the mid and longer-term) and acknowledge that we are still overbought.

Be very careful chasing any moves early. Whipsaw is very real during times when we are thinking about changing trend. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: DTE, HDSN, UNG, PBR, CVS, UPS, SOFI, BITO, PYPL, SAVA, LAC, SO. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Before the open Friday, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure (PCE Index) came in on estimate, down from the previous month’s +5.2%, but still at +4.9%.  This might indicate that inflation has peaked.  This news helped the bulls to gap the QQQ and SPY higher.  In turn, we then saw a strong rally the first hour that slowed over the second hour and ended in a sideways grind in a tight range most of the afternoon before rallying again into the close. However, this rally all happened on below-average volume as it appears traders decided to take off early for the holiday weekend.  On the day, SPY gained 2.45%, DIA gained 1.72%, and QQQ gained 3.26%.  This also ended a 7-week losing streak in all 3 major indices.  The VXX fell 3.44% to 22.46 and T2122 climbed even higher into the overbought territory at 96.56.  10-year bond yields remain flat at 2.743% and Oil (WTI) climbed another nine-tenths of a percent to $115.07/barrel going into the holiday weekend.

The Technology and Consumer Cyclical sectors led the way Friday with TSLA, AAPL, NVDA, AMD, GOOG, AVGO, ADBE, SQ, and DELL leading the way.  However, the Meme stocks were back in vogue as GMA gained more than 43%, AMC gained almost 20%, KOSS gained almost 17%, and BB gained 11.55% on the day.

In electric vehicle news, F delivered its first electric F-150 pickup on Friday according to Bloomberg.  This comes as F increased production plans for the vehicle to 150,000 trucks by mid-2023 and announced that is has more than 200,000 vehicle purchase reservations with deposits.  F stock was up 9.04% on the day Friday. Meanwhile, TSLA has pushed back delivery of its own “Cybertruck” until the end of 2022 or early 2023.  TSLA stock was up 7.33% on Friday.  Never one to let a news cycle go without making a headline, TSLA CEO Musk tweeted that Bill Gates has as much as a $2 billion short position in TSLA.  Meanwhile, electric van maker ELMS warned that it will run out of cash in June (at least one month earlier than previously projected).

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

On the Russia story, on Friday Russia wired a $100 million interest payment to its own domestic settlement house.  However, that is not the same thing as paying the foreign investors in their US accounts.  So, technically, Russia is in default on its bond debt.  Those Russian bonds are now trading at 15-20 cents on the dollar of face value.  On Saturday Putin test-fired a “hypersonic” missile 1,000 km across the Barents Sea (in the Norway and Finland neighborhood) as an apparent signal that he is not happy about Sweden and Finland joining NATO.  S&P also cut the Ukrainian credit rating, citing “a more protracted war.”  On Sunday, pro-Russian Serbia agreed to a 3-year deal with Russia for the supply of natural gas and Pro-Putin Hungary got its way as an exemption for pipeline oil was added to the EU’s Russian oil ban proposal.  Finally, on Monday EU leaders agreed on a partial ban of Russian oil imports.  The ban excludes pipeline oil at the insistence of pro-Putin Hungary and means the ban only impacts two-thirds of Europe’s oil imports from Russia.  Still, it is another sanction on the Russian economy.

In response to a user request, here is some news/ideas for longer-term investments.

JPM sent out a note to clients saying that they are expecting up to $250 billion to flow into stocks during June.  This number is their estimate of “rebalancing inflows” where they expect mutual funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds to sell bonds and buy stocks at the new lower prices (better P/E ratios).  These groups have a total of $7.5 trillion under management and the $250 billion would be the rebalancing into stocks required to get back to the overall 60/40 portfolio weight that the group seeks to achieve.  The note went on to say they expect the recently hit tech sector to do well from this reshuffle as the selloff has many tickers selling at a relatively attractive P/E Ratio.  INTC, AAPL, GOOGL, FB, AMAT, and MU are some of the more attractive P/E stocks among the QQQ 100.  This might be of interest for longer-term holdings.

Also for longer-term holdings, MarketWatch put out a list of high dividend-paying stocks that are expected to increase their dividends the most over the next two years.  These are not necessarily the 15 highest dividend payers of the S&P500, but they are the top in terms of current dividend yield and financials pointing to potentially raised yields in the future. These include: EOG, PPL, MTB, RF, OMC, BKR, AMGN, PFG, CFG, WELL, VTRS, VTR, HBAN, MO, C.  (Note that many of these stocks are in the banking and oil industries, which do well in rate increase, oil shortage, and inflationary times.)

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed but lean to the green side.  Shenzhen (+1.92%), Malaysia (+1.75%), and New Zealand (+1.46%) led the winners. Meanwhile, Australia (-1.03%), India (-0.46%), and Japan (-0.33%) paced the losses.  In Europe, at mid-day stocks are mixed but lean to the red side.  The FTSE (+0.34%), DAX (-0.63%), and CAC (-0.70%) lead as usual.  However, there are a number of mixed moves more than one percent by the smaller exchanges as Europe comes to grips with the partial ban on Russian oil (and expected Russian retaliation on natural gas availability).  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward modestly lower open.  The DIA implies a -0.50% open, the SPY is implying a -0.45% open, and the QQQ implies a flat -0.04% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields have moved back up to 2.81% and Oil (WTI) is up more than 3% to $118.57 on the news out of Europe.

The major economic news scheduled for release Tuesday is limited to Chicago PMI (9:45 am) and Conf. board Consumer Confidence (10 am). However, there is also a meeting scheduled at the White House between President Biden, Treasury Sec. Yellen, and Fed Chair Powell. This will undoubtedly lead to statements to the press. The major earnings reports scheduled for release include BEKE and LX before the open.  Then after the close, HPQ, YY, CRM, and VSCO report.

Economic news later this week includes May ADP Nonfarm Payroll Change, Mfg. PMI, ISM Mfg. PMI, Fed Beige Book, and 3 Fed speeches on Wednesday.  On Thursday we get Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Q1 Nonfarm Productivity, Q1 Unit Labor Costs, April Factory Orders, Crude Oil Inventories, and another Fed speaker.  Finally, on Friday we get May Avg. Hourly Earnings, May Nonfarm Payrolls, May Participation Rate, May Unemployment Rate, May Services PMI, and May ISM Non-Mfg. PMI.

Earnings reports scheduled for later this week include CPRI, DCI, WB, CHWY GME, HPE, NTAP, PSTG, PVH, and VEEV on Wednesday.  Then on Thursday, we hear from CAE, CIEN, DBI, HRL, SPTN, TTC, COO CRWD, JOAN, LULU, and RH.  Finally, on Friday we get reports from DOOO.

As traders come back after the long weekend, another Fed Governor (Waller) said Monday that he favors continuing to do half-point rate hikes until after neutral is reached (in order to put inflation back into its place). The bulls are hoping to follow through on their strong showing last week. They are also hoping to push to make May a green monthly candle. However, the fundamental issues of inflation and the impact of rising rates remain just as they were at the end of April. So, the forward-looking market still needs to decide whether we’ll see a soft or hard landing going into year end as well as early 2023. If anyone knows exactly how that will shake out, they are wiser than I am. So, all I can do is follow the trend (which is up in the very short-term and down in the mid and longer-term) and acknowledge the extension of every move. (We are overbought at this point and should see rest/pullback regardless of whether we are currently in a relief rally or not.)

Be very careful chasing any moves early. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Trading is our job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss. Finally, remember that you get rich steadily in Trading…not by striking it rich on one or two trades.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: TREX, VLO, FUBO, DTE, ENPH, SOFI, T, SQ, DIS, JNJ, C, NVDA, UPST, PLUG. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Stocks gapped a bit higher on retail earnings from BABA, BIDU, DG, DLTR, WSM, and M…even after Q1 GDP came in worse than expected. However, then the bulls really got running and rallied hard the first hour, continuing at a slower pace all the way into 1 pm.  At that point, a sideways grind started near the highs in all 3 major indices that lasted more or less into the close.  Consumer Cyclicals and Technology led the way on this risk-on day with the likes of TSLA, BABA, AMZN, HD, and NIO leading them higher.  This left us with large white candles that had small upper wicks.  On the day, SPY gained 2.00%, DIA gained 1.61%, and QQQ gained 2.77%.  The VXX continued its fall to 23.26 and T2122 climbed even deeper into the overbought territory at 89.59.  10-year bond yields fell slightly to 2.742% and Oil (WTI) spiked 3.25% to $113.92/barrel.

During the day, Bloomberg reported that MSFT has told its MS-Office and Windows divisions to be more selective in hiring.  The executive conveying the message cited tightening economic conditions.  This falls in line with similar messages put forth by other tech giants like FB and NVDA.  It also fits with the SNAP company-wide email saying the company would significantly miss its own guidance in at least the coming quarter.

After the close, COST, DELL, ULTA, ADSK, and MRVL all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, GPS and WDAY beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  On the other side, FTCH missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, AEO missed on both lines.  It is worth noting that GPS slashed its forward guidance for the remainder of the year.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

In other stock news, TWTR shareholders have sued Elon Musk claiming that he has manipulated the market, costing them a huge amount of money (TWTR is down 40% from when Musk’s stake was disclosed).  The suit alleges that Musk is complaining about bots and making other tweets in order to manipulate the stock and negotiate a better price for the deal.  Elsewhere, DAL has cut about 100 flights per day in the US in order to relieve pressure on its schedule.  The airline said this will give them more flexibility to avoid flight delays caused by weather and especially staff shortages.  BP has said it is now reviewing its investment plans in the face of the UK’s new 25% windfall profit tax on energy companies.

On the Russian invasion story, Russian leader Putin offered to allow Ukrainian grain exports from Odesa…if all sanctions against Russia are dropped.  This nonstarter was just another attempt to divide the West as the UK and other “coalition of the willing” countries prepare their navies to sail to the Black Sea to force Russian compliance. Meanwhile, Russia is making slow, but steady gains in the Donbass region as Ukraine simply does not have the artillery, mortars, and air support to stack up against concentrations of Russian forces. This comes as it is reported the US will finally send long-range rocket systems to Ukraine. (This likely will not arrive until mid to late July.) Finally, Russia is also expected to default on their debt at midnight Moscow time. The US declined to give them a renewed exception from sanctions to allow them to pay through US banks.

Overnight, Asian markets were mostly green on the day.  Hong Kong (+2.89%), Taiwan (+1.86%), and India (+1.13%) led the region higher.  In Europe, we see a similar story with only a flat Russia (-0.04%) and down Portugal (-1.13%) in the red at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.21%) lags again, but the DAT (+0.78%) and CAC (+0.84%) are leading the region higher.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modestly green start to the day.  The DIA implies a +0.10% open, the SPY is implying a +0.30% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.50% open ahead of data this morning.  10-year bond yields are down to 2.725% and Oil (WTI) is off a half of a percent to $113.54/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Friday includes April Trade Goods Balance, April PCE Price Index, April Retail Inventories, and April Personal Spending (all at 8:30 am), and Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10 am).  We also hear from Fed speaker Bullard (7:35 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release include, BIG, PDD, and SAFM before the open.  There are no earnings reports scheduled for after the close.

So far this morning PDD has reported beats on both lines.  However, BIG and HIBB have reported misses on both the revenue and earnings lines.

The bulls did a great job on Thursday but will have their hands full preventing a fade today with the 3-day weekend ahead of us. So, be very wary of chasing moves today. The Bulls are challenging the downtrend, but there is still a lot of resistance and technical damage that will need to be overcome in the weeks ahead if we are destined to reclaim the all-time highs from the start of the year. Flat, nimble, or hedged might be the best way to go into the long weekend news cycle with inflation, recession, and geopolitical risks all on the table.

Remember, you do not need o trade every day or every week. Sitting out the markets and times that don’t give you an edge is smart, not lazy. Remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. Trading is a job. So, do the work and work the process. Stick with your trading rules, trade with the trend, and consistently take profits when you have them. Always move your stops in your favor. Don’t be stubborn. If you have a loss, just admit you were wrong and take it before it grows. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: No tickers today. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service

Markets gapped modestly lower on Wednesday and then road the roller coaster sideways the rest of the day.  A bullish lean the last 90 minutes took stocks out toward the high end of the range.  This left us with white candles with small lower wicks and larger upper wicks.  However, the SPY and DIA both managed to close above their T-lines.  On the day, SPY gained 0.90%, DIA gained 0.58%, and QQQ gained 1.40%.  The VXX fell 1.6% to 23.65 and T2122 spiked into the overbought territory at 90.79.  10-year bond yields were flat on the day at 2.756% and Oil (WTI) gained almost 1% to $110.84/barrel. 

In economic news, April Durable Goods Orders came in at half what was expected (+0.3% vs. +0.6% est.).  Crude Oil Inventories came in lower than expected (down 1.019mil barrels vs. down 737,000 barrels expected).  The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office raised its 2022 economic output (GDP) forecast to +3.1% and also said that it believes inflation has topped out and will have fallen to 2% by 2024.  This good news was unexpected.  However, it was the Fed Meeting Minutes that made the biggest splash.

The Fed minutes released in the afternoon indicated the Fed is ready to move ahead with multiple half-percent rate hikes in the coming meetings.  In fact, they said it was likely that we will see 50-basis-point moves at each of the next few meetings. The thing that was perhaps unexpected was the minutes showed they are ready to keep raising into “neutral” or even “restrictive rate” territory in order to get inflation under control.  Ominously, several of the members said they were concerned about financial stability risks (in both the bond and commodities markets) of them getting to restrictive rates, but generally agreed they would do whatever was needed.

SNAP Case Study | Actual Trade

After the close, NVDA, WSM, ENS, MOD, SPLK, and PLUS all reported beats on both the revenue and earnings lines.  Meanwhile, UHAL, GES, and CHNG beat on revenue while missing on earnings.  However, DXC missed on both revenue and earnings lines.  It is worth noting the NVDA fell, despite beating, on light forward guidance.

In other stock news, an SEC filing on Wednesday showed that Musk has increased his personal financial commitment to the TWTR buyout deal to $33.5 billion, with the remaining $10 billion coming from outside investors.  TWTR was up on that news.  However, in perhaps unrelated news, after-hours TWTR shareholders voted to oust longtime Elon Musk associate and backer Egon Durban from his TWTR board seat.  Finally, Reuters reported that there are multiple bidders competing the acquire KSS, and the stock spiked on the news (up as much as 17% and closing up almost 12%).

In AAPL news, yesterday the company released a statement saying that it was raising compensation by 10% or more. It also released an internal video urging workers at its retail stores not to join a union. This morning Bloomberg reports that the company has asked suppliers to build 221 million iPhones, which is in line with 2021 but far below analyst expectations of 240 million units for this year.

Overnight, Asian markets were mixed on modest moves.  Singapore (+0.93%), India (+0.90%), and Shenzhen (+0.57%) led the gainers.  Meanwhile, Taiwan (-0.84%), Australia (-0.69%), and New Zealand (-0.63%) paced the losses.  In Europe, stocks are nearly green across the board (with the sole exception of Sweden (-0.96%) at mid-day.  The FTSE (+0.04%) lags while the DAX (+0.77%) and CAC (+0.74%) are more typical of the region in early afternoon trading.  As of 7:30 am, US Futures are pointing toward a modest gap higher at the start of the day.  The DIA implies a +0.76% open, the SPY is implying a +0.77% open, and the QQQ implies a +0.57% open at this hour.  10-year bond yields are slightly higher at 2.761% and Oil (WTI) is three-quarters of a percent higher at $111.15/barrel in early trading.

The major economic news scheduled for release Thursday is limited to Q1 GDP and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (both at 8:30 am), and April Pending Home Sales (10 am).  The major earnings reports scheduled for release include BABA, AMWD, BIDU, BURL, CM, DG, DLTR, GCO, IQ, M, and MDT before the open.  Then after the close, AEO, ADSK, COST, DELL, FTCH, GPS, MRVL, ULTA, VMW, and WDAY report.

So far this morning BABA, TD, BIDU, IQ, DG, DLTR, TITN, and M have reported beats on both lines.  At the same time, BKE and GCO missed on revenue while beating on earnings.  However, MDT and BURL reported misses on both the revenue and earnings lines.

The major economic news coming Friday includes a Fed speaker (Bullard, twice), April Trade Goods Balance, April PCE Price Index, April Retail Inventories, April Personal Spending, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Back and forth we go as the chop looks to be heading toward a modest gap higher today. Regardless, the bears still have the trend and the bulls have not capitulated in a crescendo of volume yet. So, uncertainty and stubbornness remain. That means volatility and intraday whipsaw are also likely to continue. If we do break lower, keep an eye on that bear market line (about 384 in the SPY) for the S&P. The bulls have defended that line before, so a bounce there is possible. Be very careful about chasing and remain nimble or hedged. There is no need to predict reversals or fear of missing out. The market will still be here after it has given confirmation.

Trading is a job, not a lottery ticket. So, work the process. Stick with your trading rules and manage the things that you can control while trying not to worry about the things you have no control over at all. Trade with the trend, don’t chase, keep consistently taking profits when you have them, and move your stops in your favor. Also, remember that the first rule of making big money in the market is to not lose big money in the market. So, don’t be stubborn, and protect yourself from yourself. Keep in mind that nobody is right all the time. When you’re wrong, just admit it and take your loss. As they say, the best time to have taken a $500 loss is when you are now staring at a $1,500 loss.

Ed

Swing Trade Ideas for your consideration and watchlist: BMBL, MNKD, DKNG, KRE, WFC, FITB, ZION, XLE, ZIM, FIS, BTU. You can find Rick’s review of tickers on his YouTube Channel here. Trade your plan, take profits along the way, and smart. Also, remember to check for impending earnings reports. Finally, remember that any tickers we mention and talk about in the trading room are not recommendations to buy or sell.

🎯 Mike Probst: Rick, Got CTL off the scanner today. Already up 30%. Love it.

🎯 Dick Carp: the scanner paid for the year with HES-thank you

🎯 Arnoldo Bolanos: LTA scanner really works $$, thanks Ed.

🎯 Bob S: LTA is incredible…. I use it … would not trade without it

🎯 Malcolm .: Posted in room 2, @Rick… I used the LTA Scanner to go through hundreds of stocks this weekend and picked out three to trade:  PYPL, TGT, and ZS.   Quality patterns and with my trading, up 24%, 7% and 12%…. this program is gold.

🎯 Friday 6/21/19  (10:09 am) Aaron B: Today, my account is at +190% since January. Thanks, RWO HRC Flash Malcolm Thomas Steve Ed Bob S Bob C Mike P and everyone that contributes every day. I love our job.

Hit and Run Candlesticks / Road To Wealth Youtube videos

Disclosure: We do not act on all trades we mention, and not all mentions acted on the day of the mention. All trades we mention are for your consideration only.

Free YouTube Education  •  Subscription Plans • Private 2-Hour Coaching

DISCLAIMER: Investing / Trading involves significant financial risk and is not suitable for everyone. No communication from Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates or representatives is not financial or trading advice. All information provided by Hit and Run Candlesticks Inc, its affiliates and representatives are intended for educational purposes only. You are advised to test any new trading approach before implementing it.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  Terms of Service