As investors reacted to earnings and economic reports piling up, evidence of a slowing economy, the indexes produced a rollercoaster ride of whipsaws, leaving more questions than answers by the close of day.  On the positive side, the indexes held near technical and price support levels but did so with substantial uncertainty as the 10-year bond topped 4%.  Expect more volatility this morning with jobs and productivity numbers before the bell to set the stage for the day.  We could be setting up for a significant market move soon, but it could go in either direction, so plan carefully.

Asian markets struggled with direction overnight, closing mixed as investors grappled with the impacts of pending rate increases.  European markets trade with modest losses this morning after posting an 8.5% inflation number suggesting the ECB has a lot of work ahead to curb the rising costs.  At the time of writing this report, U.S. futures suggest a mixed open with potential market-moving economic data capable of changing everything by the open. 

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Notable reports for Thursday include AER, AVGO, BUD, BBY, BIG, BILI, AI, CHPT, COST, DELL, HPE, HRL, KR, M, MRVL, JWN, PTLO, SIX, SWBI, SFM, SSYS, TD, UTZ, VSCO, VVNT, VMW, AUY, & ZS.

News & Technicals’

Tesla CEO Elon Musk took the stage to present his “Master Plan Part 3” for the company at its 2023 Investor Day in Austin.  The company’s manufacturing leader, Tom Zhu, revealed that as of Wednesday, Tesla had produced 4 million cars.  The presentation was long on vision and a review of prior achievements but short on specifics about new Tesla products or services. 

Inflation in the eurozone eased slightly to 8.5% in February, even as the ECB signaled that the interest rate hiking cycle might not end.  Core inflation rose to an estimated 5.6% in February from 5.3% in January.  Goldman Sachs said earlier this week that they were raising rate hike expectations for the ECB.

Salesforce beat expectations across the board.  In addition, the company is expanding its share buyback program after introducing it last year.  Salesforce announced layoffs during the quarter as activists pushed it to become more profitable.

Wednesday’s price action was a rollercoaster ride of whipsaws that marked a new low for the week, but in the indexes, while technically resolving nothing.  Though the economic data continues to signal a slowing economy, the VIX shows investors have little fear as the recession evidence grows.  The good news is that index price support levels held by the end of the day, with Dow making the most effort to rally as the first day of March trading came to a close.  I believe the indexes are setting up for a significant market move, but the question is in which direction?  Plan carefully with Jobless Claims and Productivity & Costs report before the bell setting the stage for another day likely to produce challenging volatility. 

Trade Wisely,

Doug