We finished February with a very volatile rollercoaster ride, with price action gyrating within yesterday’s big gap to benefit experienced day traders.  Sadly all the price movement did not improve the technical damage in the index charts.  As Russia closes in on the capital of Ukraine, expect volatility to remain very high with overnight reversals and intraday whipsaws the uncertainty unfolds.  In addition, the big day of earnings reports, PMI, ISM, and construction spending numbers will add to the day’s volatility, so plan your risk carefully.

Asian markets rallied overnight, seeing green across the board, with China mainly supporting the Russian aggression.  However, European markets continue to see red across the board as a Russian convoy headed for Kyiv.  U.S. futures point to bearish open with a big day of data ahead, but all eyes are on the geopolitical events as Russia bears down the Ukrainian capital city.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

We have nearly 200 companies listed on the earnings calendar today, some not confirmed.  Notable reports include CRM, ADT, AMRN, AMC, AZO, AVID, BIDU, BGFV, BLDR, CELH, CHS, DPZ, EHTH, FSLR, HPE, HZNP, HRL, TWNK, IGT, IQ, SJM, JAZZ, KSS, MANU, MLCO, JWN, PLBY, REGI, ROST, SRPT, SGMS, SE, SOFI, TGT, URBN, VGR, WEN, WKHS, & WW.

News & Technicals’

Russia appears to have upped the ante in its invasion of Ukraine overnight with satellite imagery indicating that a long convoy — some 40 miles or 65 kilometers long — of Russian military vehicles is heading toward Ukraine’s capital Kyiv.  However, official sources have not yet confirmed the existence of the convoy.  Teneo analysts said Monday that “the movement of Russian military forces suggests preparations for new, likely heavier, military action against the capital Kyiv and other key cities in the coming days.”  Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a Twitter post from an account named “Anonymous” summoned hackers worldwide to target Russia.  Subsequent posts claimed the group was responsible for pulling down the Russian oil giant Gazprom websites, the state-controlled Russian news agency RT, and numerous Russian and Belarusian government agencies.  Attracting the ire of online hackers is yet another example of how global players — from NATO powers to international businesses and everyday consumers — are protesting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  “The world will judge them accordingly.  And history will judge them accordingly,” Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in an interview Monday.  Moscow saw a swathe of new sanctions imposed on it over the weekend for its invasion of Ukraine.  The Russian ruble tanked to an all-time low Monday, and the central bank hiked interest rates to an unprecedented 20%.  Lucid Group is cutting its car production forecast for this year by as much as 40%, sending shares of the electric vehicle start-up tumbling 14% during after-hours trading.  The company cited supply chain constraints for slashing production expectations to between 12,000 and 14,000 vehicles, down from 20,000 units.  Lucid’s CEO said the problems are more to do with commodity parts such as glass and carpet than an ongoing global shortage of semiconductor chips.  Treasury yields fall slightly in early Tuesday trading, with the 10-year dipping to 1.8044% and the 30-year moving lower to 2.1435%.

On Monday, the end-of-month trading turned out to be a rollercoaster ride as the price action seesawed in the huge point range of the morning gap.  Although indexes prices moved substantially to the benefit of day traders, the result did little to nothing to repair the technical damage in the charts.  As Russia pushes toward the capital city of Ukraine, attention will shift temporarily to PMI, ISM, and construction spending economic reports.  We also have a huge day of earnings reports, but unfortunately, none of them will likely move the market substantially or reverse the overall bearish trends.  While in a downtrend, always respect overhead resistance as uncertainty plagues the world’s markets.  Large intraday whipsaws are likely here to stay for the near future as the market reacts to geopolitical events and the news cycle.  Inflation is raging, and I suspect it will play a central role in today’s State of the Union Address and the Powell testimony on the hill Wednesday and Thursday.  Plan carefully as overnight price reversals remain highly probable with so much uncertainty in the path ahead.

Trade Wisely,

Doug