The market faces some complex challenges this week with the rising pandemic concerns in China,  crypto market uncertainties,  and rising U.S. layoffs as we slide toward a holiday shutdown.  With earnings inspiration winding down, only one day of market-moving economic reports, expect news sensitivity, choppy conditions, and declining volume this week.  Plan your risk carefully, as holiday weeks typically suffer declining volume as traders and investors head out for holiday plans.

Asian markets mostly declined while we slept, even as China held steady benchmark lending rates with pandemic concerns rising.  European markets trade red across the board this morning as recession worries persist.  U.S. futures point to a modestly bearish open as earnings inspiration declines and holiday travel sets the stage for choppy market conditions.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Though the bulk of 4^th quarter earnings has passed, we still have a few each day as the theme of retail reports continues.  Notable reports include A, DELL, SJM, J, LI, URBN, WEBR, & ZM.

News & Technicals’

Bob Iger is back as CEO of Disney.  Bob Chapek was named CEO in February 2020 and came under fire for various decisions.  Shares of Dow 30 component Disney jumped in premarket trade Monday.  Bob Iger has disapproved of several of Bob Chapek’s changes to Disney despite handpicking him as his successor in early 2020, sources have told CNBC.  Disney shares have fallen more than 40% this year, including slumping on weak fiscal fourth-quarter results earlier this month.  The biggest point of contention may be Chapek’s reorganization of the company, which established a new division called Disney Media and Entertainment. 

Bitcoin hovered around a one-week low on Monday, and other major cryptocurrencies fell sharply as the impact of the dramatic collapse of FTX continued to ripple through the market.  The cryptocurrency market has come under pressure over the last two weeks as problems at major exchange FTX came to light.  From Nov. 6 — the day Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said his exchange would liquidate its FTT tokens — the crypto market has lost more than $260 billion of value. 

The latest NFIB monthly small business confidence and jobs reports show that Main Street is still looking to hire even as economic sentiment continues to decline.  But the vast majority of open positions (90%) are seeing few to no qualified applicants apply even as layoffs mount throughout the economy.  In addition, higher wages get harder for business owners to offer as inflation increases as a margin pressure amid a lower sales outlook.  Still, other work benefits and perks can be used to attract talent. 

As the Thanksgiving shutdown approaches, the market faces some complex challenges, with layoffs rising in the U.S., and new pandemic issues in China, while the crypto market uncertainty continues.  As a result, expect exchange volumes to decline sharply this week as traders and investors head out for holiday plans.  Chop may be the word of the week as earnings inspiration dwindles and all the potential market-moving economic reports bunched up on Wednesday morning.  Holiday weeks can be very news-sensitive, so plan your risk accordingly.

Trade wisely,

Doug