Black Friday

If the news reports are correct, holiday shopping in-store and online as consumers displayed their economic confidence and ravenous desire to grab a Black Friday bargain.  Unfortunately, that has not translated into bullish price action the US Futures.   Instead, the market is reacting bearishly this morning with news reports suggesting the US/China trade war could extend well past the end of this year.

Currently, the Dow is pointing to a gap down of nearly 150 points testing Tuesdays low after the morning rush don’t be surprised to see very light and choppy price action as traders extend their holiday vacations and join the Black Friday shopping masses.  My plan for the day is to monitor current positions only and avoid adding risk into the weekend.

On the Calendar

We have only 9-companies reporting earnings on this partial day of trading.  That number will jump up between the 40’s the and 50’s next week as some of the last 4th quarter reports continue to trickle in.

Action Plan

New concerns that the China trade war could extend through the 2020 presidential election has the US Futures turning south this morning.   According to news reports Thanksgiving in-store and online sales may have hit new record highs yesterday as confident consumers shopped a good deal of the holiday.  Best Buy has reported Thursday transactions numbers were higher than ever.  With the Black Friday shoppers already filling the stores this morning it looks like Santa is doing his part at least in the retail space.

My plan today is to monitor current positions and avoid the temptation of adding new risk ahead the weekend.  Volume will likely be extremely light and price action choppy which makes the risk greater than the potential reward in my opinion.  As a result, I intend to extend my holiday as will most other traders.  If you do decide to trade today, I would suggest keeping in it small and remember that Cyber Monday often is a very last luster day as well so plan your risk accordingly.

Trade Wisely,

Doug