The guessing is over, and now the market has the increased uncertainty of what comes next with Russia invading Ukraine.  So it should be no surprise that oil prices are surging while currency, crypto, world markets, and U.S. futures experienced some extreme price volatility overnight.  Add in a big day of earnings events possible market-moving economic data, and it’s fair to say anything possible.  So plan carefully and expect substantial point whipsaws that could quickly test overnight futures lows as the uncertainty unfolds.

Asian markets experienced a very volatile session, with Hong Kong leading the selling down 2.69%.  Somewhat surprisingly, European markets chop around the flatline, trying to shake off the invasion concerns.  As earnings roll out, U.S. futures are well off the overnight lows, with Case-Shiller, PMI Flash, and Consumer Confidence numbers just ahead.  Be ready for anything with the market likely susceptible to the geopolitical news cycle.

Economic Calendar

Earnings Calendar

Kicking off a short trading week, we have a busy earnings calendar with more than 200 companies listed.  Notable reports include CZR, A, AU, CDNS, CNP, CBRL, CVI, FANG, EXAS, EXPD, FLR, HALO, HR, HL, HD, KTOS, DNUT, LPX, M, MDT, MELI, MOS, NXST, NU, PANW, PSA, RXT, RDN, RRC, O, RNG, TDOC, PTX, TXRH, TOL, RIG, & SPCE.

News & Technicals’

Home Depot on Tuesday said sales grew 11% in the fiscal fourth quarter, as the retailer topped Wall Street’s expectations and said it sees sales growth ahead for 2022.  The home improvement retailer said it expects earnings per share growth to be in the low single-digits and sales growth to be “slightly positive” in the coming fiscal year.  The company recently named chief operating officer Ted Decker its new CEO, as of March 1.  The world is waiting to see what happens next in Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to move into breakaway regions of the eastern part of the country.  Putin said Russia would recognize the independence of two self-proclaimed and pro-Russian republics in eastern Ukraine.  He said he would send Russian troops to the region on a “peacekeeping” mission.  Global financial markets were rattled by the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia crisis, with European stocks falling at the open.  On Monday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered forces into two breakaway regions of eastern Ukraine and said he would recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.  Rising tensions have sent jitters through markets, driving oil prices higher.  Treasury yields fell in early Tuesday trading, with the 10-year falling to 1.9009% and the 30-year dipping to 2.2185%.

With Russia invading Ukraine, currencies, crypto, and U.S. futures markets experienced extreme price volatility with wild swings that saw the Dow futures down more than 700 points before rallying to near even by 6 AM eastern.  Overnight prices swing this rough sets up a day where anything is possible.  As a result, markets will likely be susceptible to substantial point whipsaws that could include a restest of overnight lows.  However, experienced day traders could have the upper hand with uncertainty so high due to geopolitical pressures, inflation concerns, and the pending Fed tightening.  As a result, swing and position traders may find it very difficult to nearly impossible to have an edge in this market environment.  Remember, Cash Is A Position is often underutilized in times of such wild price volatility.  This morning we have a significant number of earnings events and Case-Shiller, PMI Flash, and Consumer Confidence numbers to keep markets guessing.  Plan your risk carefully!

Trade Wisely,

Doug