Three-Day Weekend

With the wild 2018 Q1 coming to an end today it seems very appropriate it culminates with a three-day weekend.  Tensions have been very high, and nervous traders could use some time to decompress and prepare for Q2.  Typically, volumes drop ahead of a long weekend and price action becomes quite choppy.  However, with frayed nerves and emotions, high anything is possible.  Keep a close eye on the price action watching for clues of additional selling as traders may choose to go into the long weekend with their cash safely tucked away in the account.  On the other hand, the bulls could attempt a little relief rally in a reaction to the 200-day average on the SPY and DIA.  Long story short prepare for anything ahead of this three-day weekend.

On the Calendar

On this last trading day of Q1, the Economic Calendar has several potential market-moving reports.  At 8:30 am the Jobless Claims consensus is looking for a slight decline of 1000 to a 228k print vs. 229K last reading.  Also at 8:30 AM, forecasters expect the Personal Income and Outlays report to show a 0.4% increase in personal income.  Consumer spending is also expected to rise 0.2% with the closely watched core PCE price index coming in at 0.2% in February and a 1.5% annualized reading.  Consumer Sentiment is at 10:00 AM and expected to remain strong with a 102.0 forecast reading.  There are several other non-market moving reports throughout the day, a Fed Speaker at 1:00 PM, and a couple of bond-related events to close out the quarter.

The Earnings Calander shows 89 companies stepping up to report today.  Make sure you have a plan if you’re holding or considering an entry on stocks that are reporting.

Action Plan

Yesterday indexes experienced some 2-sided choppy price action as the bulls and bears battle around the SPY and DIA 200-day average.  The Dow traded in a chop range of more than 350 points making it a very challenging and frustrating environment for most traders.  Currently, the Dow Futures are pointing to gap up open that but still within yesterday’s choppy range.  With a 3-day weekend ahead don’t be surprised to volumes drop quickly after the morning rush.

Have an awesome extended weekend everyone.  Happy Easter!

Trade Wisely,

Doug