Back to Work?

With the holiday behind us and the Black Friday shoppers, credit cards still smoldering its time to get back to work.  Or is it?  Those clever retailers will have much of the online-shoppers testing their credit limits with the so-called Cyber Monday deal.  Many folks will be back at work, but you can bet their productivity will be lacking as they chase the next flash sale to hit the internet.  Keep in mind that the market will be sensitive to the sales numbers produced today.  With many traders likely extending the holiday with vacation time and the millions of Cyber Monday shoppers focused on typing in credit card numbers don’t be surprised to see light volume and choppy price action today.

On the Calendar

The Economic Calendar begins the week with a potential market-moving report at 10:00 AM eastern.  New Home Sales surged to in September with the largest percentage gain in 28 years and reaching a 10-year high.  As a result, the consensus for October new home sales is for a sizable step back to 660K vs. 667K in September.  AT 10:30 AM the Dallas Fed MFG. Survey continues to remain strong showing little to no effect from hurricane Harvey.  Go Texas!  Consensus for November expects a strong print of 24.5.  There are several bond auctions today as well as two Fed Speakers this evening at 6:00 and 7:00 PM.

There Earnings Calendar shows just over 30 companies reporting results today.  I quickly scanned the list, and I don’t see any big name market-moving reports.  However, unknowingly holding a company that’s reporting can certainly move your portfolio.  Please make sure to continue checking reporting dates.

Action Plan

As you all know, I went into the Thanksgiving weekend very light in my accounts.  Consequently, I will be actively looking for new trades this week.  During the evening Futures were headed lower, but around 1 AM they began to rally and currently suggest a modest gap up this morning.  On Friday both the SPY and the QQQ’s closed at new record highs while the DIA and IWM choose to consolidate.  The QQQ’s have gained market leadership, and as of now, the DIA appears the weakest and not quite able to breakthrough price resistance highs.

On Friday the VIX made a new historic low dipping to 8.56 but quickly seemed to reject that low rallying more than a full point higher.  Volume could continue to be light today as may traders likely extended the holiday with some vacation time.  With the VIX so low I would also not be surprised to see a bit more volatility.  Watch for whipsaws and head fake’s and don’t rule out the possibility of full reversal patterns.

Trade Wisely,

Doug