Piles of uncertainty surround the market.

Even as the morning futures pump up team continues to try and inspire buyers to jump in piles of uncertainty surround the market.  From budget wrangling in D.C., Hurricane threats and a nut job with his finger on a nuclear button the market has a full plate.  I think we can expect some very fast moves in the market as these events unfold in our 24-hour news cycle.  Even a slight improvement in the track of Irma could inspire the Bulls just back in but if projects remain the same the opposite could be true.  The Governor of Florida as order evacuations due to this historic storm.  If I were governor of the market, I would order a temporary evacuation of the market for all inexperienced traders.  Please protect yourself until at least some of the uncertainty passes.

On the Calendar

Thursday’s Economic Calendar begins with the weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM Eastern.  The expectation for this week is only slightly higher at 241K vs. 236K.  However, as the effects of Hurricane Harvey tally up this number could start moving up quickly.  Productivity and Costs also report at 8:30 AM which sees productivity rising 1.3% and labor costs edging higher by 0.3%.  At 11:00 AM we get the EIA Petroleum Status Report.  I would expect to show a decline in supplies even though it is unlikely to include the full effects of Harvey will likely not show up just yet.  We have a three Fed Speakers today, a few on-market moving reports and slew of bond announcements rounding out the calendar day.

On the Earnings Calendar 60 companies are expected to report today so stay on your toes and continue your due diligence.

Action Plan

Although we managed to bounce small bounce in the morning, the market remained mostly stuck in a very narrow range chop.  During the evening the futures were mostly lower, but the market pump up team has been hard at work.  Currently, the futures are pointing to a flat open, but that may be difficult to matain with the market facing so much uncertainty.

The DIA, SPY and the QQQ’s all remain above their 50-day averages, but price action is not exactly inspiring confidence.  I would rank the QQQ’s a the strongest of the indexes and IWM as the weakest which is once again below the 5- day average.  As more and more reports come in on Hurricane Irma, the chances that Florida will take a direct hit seem to grow.  Following this historic storm is another Hurricane named Jose that is growing in strength.  Add in the budget games playing out in D.C. and the growing tensions with North Korea, and it’s understandable that the market nerves are wearing thin.  Expect volatility with fast moves possible as news of these events unfold.  I recommend extreme caution and would suggest new or inexperienced trader simply wait for a bit more stability.

Trade Wisely,

Doug